Greg Pinelli

Gaza War: Expect a Spike in Oil, Gold

Gold has risen against ALL currencies....look at the past two years..As for equating the Georgian nothing incusion with what is going on in Gaza..geopolitical nonsense...The entire Middle East is tied together at the hip...this incursion could have considerable consequences for oil because events in ANY area of the region can drag bystanding nations and factions into conflict.
The reason gold didn'y "soar" during the financial crisis in Oct and Nov was deleveraging in every asset class...people scrambling for ANY cash and liquidity. Gold is and always has been primarily an alternate currency..reflecting inflationary realities and expectations and as the lone bulwark against paper depreciation.....


On Jan 04 09:30 AM NOWHEREMAN wrote:

> The key is really the USD which rallies in times of war. The Georgian
> mini conflict is similar to the Gaza incursion and the Dollar which
> was still quite weak over Christmas stabilized and started rallying
> last week with a push to the upside on Jan.2nd.
>
> A lot of people have been rabid in their outlook for Gold.
> And they should be as prices of finished goods start to rise, but
> they aren't, YET.
>
> The implosion of everything financial during the fourth quarter of
> 2008 should have led to soaring gold prices, it didn't. That is a
> major problem.
>
> Most comments were in the vein of "look at the strength gold has
> while the financials crash. Its only down 15% from its highs."

>
>
> Gold should have been soaring primarily because it is perceived to
> be a Currency. Mr. Pinelli was totally right on this aspect, but
> I missed the implications at that time.
> Gold should have risen against All currencies, it didn't.
>
> Gold struggled and wound up the year only a few % higher, meanwhile
> the USD rose to multi year highs.
>
> If the last quarter can be considered a guide, dollar strength will
> equate to weaker gold.
>
> Like an earlier post commented, there are no oilfields in Gaza. IMHO

New Trend for Emerging Gold Producers: Amalgamation

Kaleb is correct...NOWHEREMAN has consistently bashed gold..but the realities of credit expansion and currency devaluation speak for themselves.....


On Dec 31 05:19 PM Kaleb22 wrote:

> Good article James, I bought ABX at $21 three weeks ago and it is
> at $36 today. I was thinking about dumping it and waiting for a
> gold drop but I don't think we will see another drop in gold.

New Trend for Emerging Gold Producers: Amalgamation

Deposing or not deposing Hugo Chavez has NOTHING to do with possible success or favor in Venezuela....Chavez is megalomaniac whose lust for power is ruing his country.
NO COUNTRY SHOULD INVEST IN VENEZUELA..OR ANY COUNTRY THAT PROMOTES TERRORISM..that includes the Saudis...

New Trend for Emerging Gold Producers: Amalgamation

People like Chavez can do what they like..soon Venezuela will have no outside investment..NO credit rating..and MUCH less oil income..The can rot in the tropical haze until the people get rid of that bloated scum bag....

Gold and silver producers will definitely consolidate..but it will largely be as a result of Juniors (as in oil and gas) acting as the ex officio exploration arms of mids and majors..and being paid very well for success.....

Don't Miss the Coming Gold Bull

At last a name that fits both the attitude and the foresight..Of course, gold is not going to drop like a rock! DZZ is a fools play and a sure loser. But then..some people hate a thing just because they need something..Buy GLD ..GG...AUY...


On Dec 31 09:43 AM NOWHEREMAN wrote:

> Good for you. Stick to your guns.
>
> My prediction: Gold will drop like a rock before a sustained rally
> occurs. BUY DZZ NOW.
>
> No reasons or explanations needed, ala Pinelli.

Don't Miss the Coming Gold Bull

Your vindictiveness is getting great reviews! Keep it up....
Please..REFER US TO THE ALPHA ARTICLES YOU'VE WRITTEN..WE'RE ALL DYING TO SEE THEM.....



On Dec 31 09:43 AM aitvaras wrote:

> Good for you. Stick to your guns.
>
> My prediction: Gold will drop like a rock before a sustained rally
> occurs. BUY DZZ NOW.
>
> No reasons or explanations needed, ala Pinelli.

Don't Miss the Coming Gold Bull

"If forced selling comes into play.." Absolutely briliant! Is there ANYTHING that won't fall if forced selling comes into play? Banks are NOT selling..that happened way back when..but..NoWhereMan seems to have missed that! If anything..look for Saudi Arabia and several oil producing states to buy Gold....
Look in your rearview miron and all you'll see is the vindictiveness and shortsightedness of a certain poster...lokk forward! And make a profit..Best to you all....


On Dec 31 06:40 PM aitvaras wrote:

> Comet1, I don't really believe it will drop like a rock but it has
> the potential to do so if additional forced selling comes into play.
> I'm pretending to be Greg Pinelli who has been tauting stocks of
> all stripes without rhyme or reason during a Bear Market in the middle
> of a severe recession.
>
> Every stock or ETF he picks is a long position. Meanwhile, since
> I believe we are still in a Bear Market and the Recession will get
> worse, I picked something he loves and UltraShorted it.
>
> Another reason, however miniscule, is that the Central Banks will
> dump more Gold than usual because of its current value and Gold is
> now up 8 years in a row.
>
> Are you willing to bet the Bank on 9, I am not.
>
> IMHO

Don't Miss the Coming Gold Bull

Of course..this is absolute nonsense! Naufal is correct and the embittered a..whatever, who I am now referring to as NoWhereMan never analyzes..never writes an article..and never gives a solid recommendation....
It would be impossible for anyone to find a bigger potential loser than DZZ..but then..why would anyone be surprised?
Gold and silver ave been..and will continue to make..anti-T bill moves..



On Dec 31 09:43 AM aitvaras wrote:

> Good for you. Stick to your guns.
>
> My prediction: Gold will drop like a rock before a sustained rally
> occurs. BUY DZZ NOW.
>
> No reasons or explanations needed, ala Pinelli.

Gold - Not the Safe Haven People Think it Is

It would be nice to get some historical facts correct...people "flooded" to gold during the "panics" listed above 1807 etc was because ONLY gold was recognized as real money and could be exchanged for a giving a bank a fixed number of dollars. The givernment, at that time, didn't legitimize gold..gold legitimized paper money.
Dines, in large part, doesn't think gold/silver prices are going higher because of short selling of the metals rather than their loss as hedges against trouble.
Interesting take on the depression...stocks recovered and then went into a very long renewed tailspin after Roosevelts election..I'd hardly say all stocks, regardless of industry, prospered..very few did.
You certainly have courage commending CDE to your elite silver stocks (some gold)..that is indeed a small group.
More glaring, however, is the notion that gold/silver do anything but protect against monetary debasement..when paper money has had a dependable champion gold has backstopped it and been convertible (pound..dollar..etc)..... there is no strong currency of universal distribution (paultaut might learn something here...) such as the late 1970's and today gold stands as a bulwark...
As of NOW there is NOT a single currency in the world of any note that is not rapidly reliquifying (inflating) its monetary base..gold simply makes sense.

Liquidity Is a Problem, But There Are Positive Signs Nonetheless

E Nuff Sed...very nice..of course, as the Georealist well knows is a tip of the hat to Nuff said McGreevy..an icon of baseball lore whose group of hooligans helped the Boston Pilgrims win a World Series they shouldn't have..nuff said...
As for the article..it simply misses the point all around..Liquidity (as we are now seeing at its nascent dawn) is NOT a thing..it's a process. It's a tidal wave of future money that is well out at sea but will require higher ground to survive....Head for gold and other stuff...real stuff....

Comparing Volatility of Gold to Its Price

Oh Reality man...please allow me to lay a little real world on you..No one..as in NO SINGLE PERSON EVER...wants to be called a fool or insulted into changing their conduct. So heres a little primer on how to move the unmoved...
Physical gold has several advantages..
1. It is in your hands..no small matter if there are those who manipulate the paper world.
2. Premiums have been very substantial..When I first started buying gold in 1979 a 3-5% markup..depending on the coin was typical. Very demanding to find now, unless one is buying in quantity.
The downside..
1. You'll need a 10-15% move up to make ANY money...and you have to find a dependable buyer.
2. You lose out on very quick moves..ad the markets are all about volatility...

The gold miners also have a place in one's portfolio..my personal take on the precious metals...as a % of total portfolio...
1. 5% physical gold...
2. 5% physical silver....
3. 5% paper gold..GLD works well..even DGP is a great wealth builder..
4. 5-7% SLV or SLW..the upside to both is dramatic..SLW is silver on the cheap....
5. Gold miners...AUY...GG...FC... (many metals)

Opportunities Abound in Gold and International Assets

It's hard to argue with Schiff's conclusions on the dollar..the problem with playing that devaluation is that gold represents almost the only sure counter. Every other currency is a risk and uffers from the problems of deleveraging.
And really! Bx ..eg BS...is as opaque as the paranoia he "shills" for...come clean and stop acting like one of the prophets of doom! Laughable.

First Fuel, Now Metals - Forecasts Lowered

The above isn't a "Forecast." It's nothing more than a simpleminded assertion of the prevailing trend. There's NO analytical component to the prices other than.."what's falling in October will continue falling." No wonder UBS has such a brilliant track record....I wondered when they stopped buying Tulips or sold their shares in the South Seas Company?
Since the very first irrelevant posting above complained about "gold bugs.." I'll follow up with some facts..
1. The premium on 1 oz Eagle or Mapleleaf gold coins is over 7%..IF ONE CAN FIND A RELIABLE SUPPLIER
2. The premium on 1 oz Eagle silver coins is almost 50%...and most suppliers are SOLD OUT....
So...the paper spot price can meander where it likes..the boots on the ground investor deals with another very different "REAL" price..
It's as if the average home price in an area was $150K..but, oh, by the way..one can't really be bought for that price!

No Renewed Bull Phase for Metals Miners Just Yet

Of course Mark Anthony is incorrect as usual. Physical platinum has been falling because of sever restructuring of PGM expected use industrially. Platinum and palladium are still overwhelmingly not investment of jewelry driven markets.
IF...supplies were tight and demand was level we wouldNOT have seen a 43% drop in palladium and a like drop in Platinum.
Why Mr. Anthony has a website is beyond me...his Alpha articles are scattered and largely incomprehensible..and he doesn't seem to understand metal market basics.
I'd also argue with Mr. Cara that what we are seeing could even remotely be seen as a dollar bull. It's...if anything..a response to Euro slamming..the US dollar will get over this short lived reflexive move up soon..and resume it's very long forward looking slide. Uranium..silver (especially) and palladium have great upside potential after a very brief levelling period...October/Nov sounds about right.

How Cheap Are Gold Stocks Relative to Bullion?

I'd like to think this article has some merit..but if it does it's marginal. There are far too many variables in mining to make such a simplistic comparison with a so called "synthetic" alternative. For instance...
1. "Synthetic" variables all rely on the presumption of ultimate delivery or physical presence...these almost never matter except..when they might really matter! In which case "synthetic" becomes synonymus with
nonexistent..as in "sorry, but there is no physical silver in storage."
2. Mining stocks have many other variables (often critical) that affect price that aren't even mentioned above..and by "price" I mean price of the equity..not just the underlying metal. For instance...higher cost miners bottom line jumps exponentially when price begins to exceed costs...their shares are quite likely to move higher, faster than low costs producers. Mining stocks benefit greatly in the final bull rush from exaggerated expectations...gold/si... ALWAYS jump furthest last..of course, you'd acually have to have been a real investor over time to know this.
Also...don't be fooled by what's NOT stated in the article...Options can move against one very quickly and require constant reinvestment. A miner with resources..like CDE for example..is a very simple game to play. You get your metal at half price (by ANY measure) and you can simply wait for the fundamentals and great towards real stuff to catch up......