Greg Pinelli

Gaza War: Expect a Spike in Oil, Gold

Gold has risen against ALL currencies....look at the past two years..As for equating the Georgian nothing incusion with what is going on in Gaza..geopolitical nonsense...The entire Middle East is tied together at the hip...this incursion could have considerable consequences for oil because events in ANY area of the region can drag bystanding nations and factions into conflict.
The reason gold didn'y "soar" during the financial crisis in Oct and Nov was deleveraging in every asset class...people scrambling for ANY cash and liquidity. Gold is and always has been primarily an alternate currency..reflecting inflationary realities and expectations and as the lone bulwark against paper depreciation.....


On Jan 04 09:30 AM NOWHEREMAN wrote:

> The key is really the USD which rallies in times of war. The Georgian
> mini conflict is similar to the Gaza incursion and the Dollar which
> was still quite weak over Christmas stabilized and started rallying
> last week with a push to the upside on Jan.2nd.
>
> A lot of people have been rabid in their outlook for Gold.
> And they should be as prices of finished goods start to rise, but
> they aren't, YET.
>
> The implosion of everything financial during the fourth quarter of
> 2008 should have led to soaring gold prices, it didn't. That is a
> major problem.
>
> Most comments were in the vein of "look at the strength gold has
> while the financials crash. Its only down 15% from its highs."

>
>
> Gold should have been soaring primarily because it is perceived to
> be a Currency. Mr. Pinelli was totally right on this aspect, but
> I missed the implications at that time.
> Gold should have risen against All currencies, it didn't.
>
> Gold struggled and wound up the year only a few % higher, meanwhile
> the USD rose to multi year highs.
>
> If the last quarter can be considered a guide, dollar strength will
> equate to weaker gold.
>
> Like an earlier post commented, there are no oilfields in Gaza. IMHO

Hedging Gold's Volatility

I wouldn't ride that pony around the block with Agency....shorting is a VERY dangerous game in mining...for silver miners go CDE...for Gold stick with the ETFs...GLD is fine...You mirror the upside on the least volatile metal..and have the potential for a parabolic run on the most volatile (silver)....
Of course..don't expect too much from Hard Asset whatever unless you subscribe....
By the by...Alpha publishes, knee jerk fashion, too many..WAY TOO MANY...knockoff articles sourced from other analysts..and people hawking their wares....A little due diligence needs to happen....

Hedging Gold's Volatility

Interesting intro to the subject...I don't know that HL (Hecla) could really be classified as a Gold stock..in 2007 they produced 107,000 oz of gold...5.643 million oz of silver..Sounds like a silver stock!