Greg Pinelli

Gaza War: Expect a Spike in Oil, Gold

Gold has risen against ALL currencies....look at the past two years..As for equating the Georgian nothing incusion with what is going on in Gaza..geopolitical nonsense...The entire Middle East is tied together at the hip...this incursion could have considerable consequences for oil because events in ANY area of the region can drag bystanding nations and factions into conflict.
The reason gold didn'y "soar" during the financial crisis in Oct and Nov was deleveraging in every asset class...people scrambling for ANY cash and liquidity. Gold is and always has been primarily an alternate currency..reflecting inflationary realities and expectations and as the lone bulwark against paper depreciation.....


On Jan 04 09:30 AM NOWHEREMAN wrote:

> The key is really the USD which rallies in times of war. The Georgian
> mini conflict is similar to the Gaza incursion and the Dollar which
> was still quite weak over Christmas stabilized and started rallying
> last week with a push to the upside on Jan.2nd.
>
> A lot of people have been rabid in their outlook for Gold.
> And they should be as prices of finished goods start to rise, but
> they aren't, YET.
>
> The implosion of everything financial during the fourth quarter of
> 2008 should have led to soaring gold prices, it didn't. That is a
> major problem.
>
> Most comments were in the vein of "look at the strength gold has
> while the financials crash. Its only down 15% from its highs."

>
>
> Gold should have been soaring primarily because it is perceived to
> be a Currency. Mr. Pinelli was totally right on this aspect, but
> I missed the implications at that time.
> Gold should have risen against All currencies, it didn't.
>
> Gold struggled and wound up the year only a few % higher, meanwhile
> the USD rose to multi year highs.
>
> If the last quarter can be considered a guide, dollar strength will
> equate to weaker gold.
>
> Like an earlier post commented, there are no oilfields in Gaza. IMHO

Time to Revise Our Gold Expectations

As long as we're on the subject of actually analyzing companies...BVN+PCU are hardly equal to a fraction of FCX....while almost all major and wanna be majors are vastly undervalued FCX is a big time player...none are in BHPs class but then who is???
As for currencies..they are ALL depreciating...the wannabe analysts who don't know that really should check the most recent liquidity and interest rate move by EVERY country.
By the by...NXG is a penny stock....largely a copper minor that will have long to wait..the author above spoke about gold and gold equities..someone is pushing their laggards..paultaut.......

Time to Revise Our Gold Expectations

A few points..gold has zig zagged because the real turmoil is taking place on the critical relative asessment of hard money vs. paper money and it's credit extensions. My take is the die was cast this past November when worldwide nation states and groups (EU) committed to creating whatever liquidity is necessary.
The next critical evaluation point between gold (silver is riding the coattails, as always) and paper will come in late Winter andearly Spring when significant market players start looking at the liquidity flowing from comittments and understand how serious the across the board depreciation of ALL currencies is likely to be.
THAT'S WHEN IT HITS THE FAN... there will be no recognized safe haven paper and gold will become very..very desireable as real money.
What is very interesting is that the view above will likely become the CONSERVATIVE one..while the pleading and convincing will be on the paper credit side...the worm is about to turn!

Citigroup Sees Gold Reaching $2000

For those posters not aware..WE ARE NOT IN THE 1990s....always smart to start the discussion in the correct decade..or century.
Citi is not a monolithic unity...many parts..many opnions..this one on gold makes much sense..
This liquidity has to come out somewhere..Some tremendous presure will start to build in Spring 2009. At the first hint of a US$ weakening..at the first whiff of inflation..just about the time the markets realize no new..as in none!..oil product has been developed and is on line..then watch the stuff fly.
Those genius' in those1.25% T-bills will start slamming thru the "I'm getting hammered" door and voila! Gold is $1500 and climbing $75 a week..and silver..lost in the shuffle ....slams past $25 on a one way trip to $50.......

Another Way to Hedge Gold Stocks

Just a few things that need some light..First.when someone BUYS DZZ they are most certainly NOT hedging AUY or any other mining stock. They ARE hedging (establishing a Double Short positions) gold..
Mining stocks move..more thanone would hope..in alternate universes..and an investor is certainly not covering specific risk in AUY...

I have a little different take on the whole long position side.....and the short. I'd BUY gold (GLD) any time we move to a standard deviation below 2 for the 52 week moving average. I'd go long DZZ (in a conservative averaging in basis!) at 2 or 3 standard deviations ABOVE the 52 week average gold price.
It's all about the percentages baby...they didn't build Las Vegas going all in.

Gold: The Next Reserve Currency Player

Interesting comments..especially Mr. Lathrops..apparently he thinks we should stupidly stare at trillions in potential liquidity andmay..well..go play golf. The Gulf States taking steps to protect themselves sounds very reasonable to me...their geographic location is enviable and they have the monetary heft to carefully pull it off.
Nothing wrong with the ETF metals funds...a physical position is always the best foundation but sometimes not the easiest to trade. If any of this gets further than speculation..and it has a very good chance of doing so...silver could e the biggest winner yet.

No Renewed Bull Phase for Metals Miners Just Yet

Of course Mark Anthony is incorrect as usual. Physical platinum has been falling because of sever restructuring of PGM expected use industrially. Platinum and palladium are still overwhelmingly not investment of jewelry driven markets.
IF...supplies were tight and demand was level we wouldNOT have seen a 43% drop in palladium and a like drop in Platinum.
Why Mr. Anthony has a website is beyond me...his Alpha articles are scattered and largely incomprehensible..and he doesn't seem to understand metal market basics.
I'd also argue with Mr. Cara that what we are seeing could even remotely be seen as a dollar bull. It's...if anything..a response to Euro slamming..the US dollar will get over this short lived reflexive move up soon..and resume it's very long forward looking slide. Uranium..silver (especially) and palladium have great upside potential after a very brief levelling period...October/Nov sounds about right.

How Cheap Are Gold Stocks Relative to Bullion?

I'd like to think this article has some merit..but if it does it's marginal. There are far too many variables in mining to make such a simplistic comparison with a so called "synthetic" alternative. For instance...
1. "Synthetic" variables all rely on the presumption of ultimate delivery or physical presence...these almost never matter except..when they might really matter! In which case "synthetic" becomes synonymus with
nonexistent..as in "sorry, but there is no physical silver in storage."
2. Mining stocks have many other variables (often critical) that affect price that aren't even mentioned above..and by "price" I mean price of the equity..not just the underlying metal. For instance...higher cost miners bottom line jumps exponentially when price begins to exceed costs...their shares are quite likely to move higher, faster than low costs producers. Mining stocks benefit greatly in the final bull rush from exaggerated expectations...gold/si... ALWAYS jump furthest last..of course, you'd acually have to have been a real investor over time to know this.
Also...don't be fooled by what's NOT stated in the article...Options can move against one very quickly and require constant reinvestment. A miner with resources..like CDE for example..is a very simple game to play. You get your metal at half price (by ANY measure) and you can simply wait for the fundamentals and great towards real stuff to catch up......

Jim Cramer's Mad Money Lightning Round, 12/11/07: Good Greif!

People really listen to this garbage??! Amazing. If the Three Stooges had done stock analysis this is precisely what it would have looked and sounded like. You must be the equivalent of the woman trailing behind her dog with the pooper scooper...saving the nuggets for us to examine. Congrats!