Greg Pinelli

Another Big Bank Failure: More Likely Than Not to Occur

John is generally correct but Reggies analysis is lacking in several areas..Let me point out one..and I certainly welcome our contributors comments...
Government has been..in the very recent past..more than willing to make equity institutions pay the price of mistakes (moral hazard). The last few months have convinced me that moral hazard for groups government considers "vital" is DEAD. If our leaders were content to let a severe recession (or even depression) run its course they certainly wouldn't have bailed ANY auto manufacturer..that is a move of mindless desperation that really speaks to the general fear that the United States can't handle economic problems without social unrest and SEVERE dislocations occuring.
Reggie is certainly correct about one thing...unlimited and cheap credit and the willingness to pass it along to anyone drawing a live breath was the beginning of this fiasco..AND THAT WAS AS MUCH A LOCAL PROBLEM AS A NATIONAL GOVERNMENTAL ISSUE. It was loan officers at YOUR bank..it was appraisers that came to YOUR neighbors homes for sale..and YOUR local real estate agents who implemented this thievery at a level all of us saw.

A Primer for Trading Citi This Week

Everyone who invests (ie, speculates) is a profiteer. I don't know of anyone who does this who considers them a lossateer. In any case...Citi is NOT going to fail or even come close. By the end of the week it will have cut thru a 40% swath..but the author makes a salient..and prudent..point. If Citi goes above %6 this week..and it well could..I'd sell shares in hand or short.
My take..it whipsaws between $3.50 and $6.50 for a week or two...longer term..it's a huge winner with a late 2009 price of $15.......

Point of No Return or Perfect Buying Opportunity?

Bespoke always presents data..it reminds me one's tax accountant.."You can certainly take these deductions...there is, however, a chance that..blah..blah..blah...
The real problem with this kind of presentation is that it doesn't take a position..it is...NOWHERE!! Of course, we need to make our own decisions and do due diligence...but what's the point of putting one's name out there if you stand for NOTHING???

It Ain't Over Til It's Over: Financials, Credit Cards and Housing

It is very interesting how "bottoms" can be called when none of the callers have the faintest idea what runaway train is rolling around the next curve. I like AIB very much..as much as I dislike Citi..however, due diligence and a cast iron stomach may be necessary.

Citi Trading Below Book

How do YOU know what Citi's "Book Value" is? How do you KNOW (and I don't mean kind of know) their "book value" won't be lowered even further next Tuesday because of writedowns or writeoffs that have slammed them up against reality one more time? Are you at all concerned about persistent rumors concerning off the book "parking spaces" for non performing and/or non marketable assets?

Nice picture up top, anyway.

A Volatile January for Financials, Healthcare

This IS self congratulatory garbage...you told us what??? This is a compendium of vague generalizations ("load up on PFE???") and after the fact nosense...

Housing Bubble and Real Estate Market Tracker

Nice synopsis of the mess...If Mr. Mazilo didn't see this coming he must have had his head up his butt 24/7. People with NO money buying quarter million dollar homes and UP...People taking equity loans out of property based on incredibly suspicious appraisals...The anecdotal evidence..that is, what's really taking place outside in the sunshine....was overwhelming. My take is that the only reason median home prices haven't plummeted monthly is that many who might sell aren't even going to market their homes. It's a waste of time.