Greg Pinelli

Ideas for Investing in Crude Oil

The major problem with Wulff is that he has a very expensive service..there's NOTHING he does that a few hours of concentrated due diligence and a careful weighing of one's own risk parameters can't accomplish...


On Dec 30 07:17 AM QVM Group wrote:

> Whisperonthewind:
>
> The list of securities in the article is not rerpesented as comprehensive.
> It covers principally industry groups and a few individual securities
> of particular interest to us for the purpose being discussed in the
> article. We find the trusts we mentioned more attractive for the
> purpose than the ones you mentioned.
>
> I could give you an even longer list of securities not included.
>
>
> If the securities you name are of particular interest to you, this
> is the place to present what you know about them and discuss them.

>
>
> For comprehensive coverage of royalty trusts, you might read articles
> by and visit the website of Kurt Wulf (McDep.com)

Ideas for Investing in Crude Oil

I'd be especially careful about looking at coal to track oil up..coal inin for a political smack down with the Obama Administration..virtua... every Domestic appointment related toenergy and environment is on record as hating the stuff.....
Steel production is also a ways from recovery..that's not positive for coal either..Oil sands are anethema to Canadian environmentalists because of water issues..use and pollution...

My take..stick to demestic safe haven producers of oil and gas (which is typically regional anyway)...LGCY..LINE..... PWE and ERF (which is taking immediate steps to reduce distributions to preserve capital)..Good luck to all!

Peabody Energy: Will Abundance of Chinese Coal Cause Price Weakness?

Made my first venture into BTU today..price fell to $28 and change. The situation with coal rings a familiar bell. Hilary Clinton was going to corral the health care system and pound the pharmaceuticals to dust..that lasted about 6 months. She was politely shoved to the back of the room and pharma exploded.
BTU (and other quality suppliers) and coal aren't going to become obsolete because of Obama's preferences or predilections. Most of the worlds ready to use electricity and heat come from coal. Any other "cleaner" infrastructure will take years to come on line and tens of billions to finance...good luck. When people need what they need high minded environmental convictions get tossed with yesterdays newspapers.

Some True Safe Havens Are Still (Surprisingly) Undervalued

Marc Anthony continues to pump recommendations made on this site on various message boards for individual equities..SWC is the most obvious one. He doesn't use his own name..he presents his views under the phony "tellurium." Marc is deceptive and self serving. I've been reading his inept and misleading posts for many months. Following his reasoning and advice is a direct road to insolvency.
NO INTEGRITY..NO HONESTY...Avoid this hat wearing half wit like the plague.
ALSO..ANY TIME ANY WHERE...IF HE WANTS TO CHALLENGE ME ON THIS SITE THEN LET HIM MAN UP!!!

Some True Safe Havens Are Still (Surprisingly) Undervalued

Mark Anthony is a complete scam and total phony...he has been pumping equities (SWC...PAL) on message boards under a different name and attempting to present himself as an impartial investor. Beware of this bum..and of Alpha..I've been warning for months about their lack or oversight and integrity and those who have in good faith listened to the many..innumerable..."r... that Mark Anthony and Alpha are without either integrity. I will continue to post and warn the readers of these low lifes..Anthony is the WORST!!!!

Some True Safe Havens Are Still (Surprisingly) Undervalued

This is a moron alert..Mark Anthony goes on various website equity blogs and under pseudonyms pumps or trashes those equities..his remarks, of course, are as inane as his Alpha Posts. This louse is as phony as they come..and the garbage he puts out is useless. Alpha needs to do some due diligence.
As for the fawning, sycophantic nonsense of JKCetc...SWC is a Russian owned, major league underperformer. Anthony routinely goes on that message board under the name tellurioum and pumps the stuff. Look at a chart..and you tell me this clown with a stupid hat knows what he's talking about.

Distinction Between Hard and Soft Assets

The inflationary inputs at the early stages .."hard"....are low...so are you saying that the return on inputs there is high?? You might have a very hrd time convincing an oil/gas major paying $400K a day for an offshore platform his inflationary input is low..but what the hell...All you're doing is writing a semi-literate (generous..not hard) article that's main objective is selling your newsletter..which must be a real treat!

Why I Am Cutting Back on Commodities

Fundamentals always mean something..apparently you can't decide what they mean. Since you're "utterly confused" I can't imagine why anyone would follow your advice. This is more than business as usual for Alpha...so you must feel completely at home!
In any case..those of us who aren't in a tizzy suggest that investors keep SLW and BTU...and certainly add CDE..which will..in spite of recent difficulties..be the star performer of 2008. Good luck with your funk....

Energy Trader: O-Day and N.A. Natural Gas & Tankers

I'll give you this Zman..you certainly deep into this supply stuff...A couple of comments on your report..
1. We're getting a fairly decent history on well depletion..and it has become almost axiomatic that once an oil/gas field or set of wells start to deplete it/they go MUCH faster than was anticipated..Cantarell is a case in point.
2. Gas looks weak at the moment..but that can change in a heartbeat..and WILL change in the near future..and it will be irrevocable. Supply down..prices up..finding and development costs skyrocketing.
3. Coal is plentiful and still cheap to get..but it is hated with a passion politically and environmentally. That leaves renewables..which have a very limited capacity..and nat gas..which is politically safe, has a strong existing infrastructure, and is clean. Gas will have its day..investorsshould look to Partnerships and Trusts (which are ridiculously beaten down) and collect while they wait..and enjoy the cheap gas because soon it will never be down that low priced path again.
4. OPEC is jawboning..they are tens of billions away from increased production..it will take that much in infrastructure (field exploration and development) just to move incrementally beyond tomorrow. We will NEVER (as in never ever) get to 95 million barrels of equivalent.

What's Happening With Crude Oil?

The problem with looking at minutiae is that commentators are clueless about fundamentals and longer term trends....so Zman can't figure much out about the bounce in prices??
...There are only two real factors that influence the market today and for the next few years..Geopolitical uncertainty (and it certainly doesn't include the naive George Bush invades Iran nonsense) and the Godzilla of all denials...depletion.
Mexico is beginning to admit that it will soon (within 5 years) deliver 500,00 less barrels per day to the US. This will be a common theme in the industry for years to come. Reserves that never existed..reserves that are depleting 30-50% faster than projected...a dismal outlook for discovery...and...the eventual recognition that ethanol development is severely limited..and oil sands are more destructive than anyone admitted. Welcome to the future..and if you're willing to make a short term bet based on the kind of reasoning I'm reading from Zman..please have some portfolio insurance..because you are in for a reaming. Can demand destruction outrace depletion?? You won't get that level of the debate from lightweights....

Peabody Energy Firing Its Engines

While it certainly isn't impossible for BTU to hit CrossProfit's 33.40 sometime before Spring it seems very unlikely..I would look for a bottom around 38-39.00 and consider that both attractive technically and fundamentally. The high is really dependent on where oil goes...and that is the trick in the equation. At 70-75.00 bl then BTU (SSL/ACI etc) will sail past 49.00 to 55.00. However, if another oil perfect storm develops there is a very severe point of diminishing returns that develops...everything could drop dramatically on recession fears.
I like BTU for the longer tern...along with BHP..both are foundation resource investments. The first one's anybody entering the sector should make.