Greg Pinelli

Someone Has to Lend in 2009: Ideas to Profit

#3 refers to Gold vs. all currencies..but I'll bite...Oil will rise
against all currencies because the holders of this finite resource will do the math...it actually pays them long term to withhold what we want....time is on their side....
When I write the things in my articles I ALWAYS do so from the perspective of an analyst. I'm NOT advocating that these are the best outcomes..I'm simply telling you that..from my perspective..these are the LIKELY outcomes. Investing is no different from going to Las Vegas..you can hit a jackpot and be smart enough to quit..or you can drink too much and feed the casinos...
As for LINE and LGCY and other oil/gas plays I emphasize...My point is to shpw that at the end of the day you're far better off getting a very substantial distribution supported by a reliable cash flow. For those who are near retirement (5 yrs or less) aim at the distribution rate of your investments...you won't become hostage to the price...

The 'Reflation' Top Ten Portfolio

Certainly more forward thinking than "tomorrow will be just like today only worse" deflationist crowd. Especially like the double short on treasuries...TBT..hard to imagine anyone is going to think their money is "safe" when inflation is back up to 7-8% and they're getting 1-2%.
Gold coins are excellent..silver are not..cumbersome and except for junk carry 35%+++ premiums....

Gaza War: Expect a Spike in Oil, Gold

Gold has risen against ALL currencies....look at the past two years..As for equating the Georgian nothing incusion with what is going on in Gaza..geopolitical nonsense...The entire Middle East is tied together at the hip...this incursion could have considerable consequences for oil because events in ANY area of the region can drag bystanding nations and factions into conflict.
The reason gold didn'y "soar" during the financial crisis in Oct and Nov was deleveraging in every asset class...people scrambling for ANY cash and liquidity. Gold is and always has been primarily an alternate currency..reflecting inflationary realities and expectations and as the lone bulwark against paper depreciation.....


On Jan 04 09:30 AM NOWHEREMAN wrote:

> The key is really the USD which rallies in times of war. The Georgian
> mini conflict is similar to the Gaza incursion and the Dollar which
> was still quite weak over Christmas stabilized and started rallying
> last week with a push to the upside on Jan.2nd.
>
> A lot of people have been rabid in their outlook for Gold.
> And they should be as prices of finished goods start to rise, but
> they aren't, YET.
>
> The implosion of everything financial during the fourth quarter of
> 2008 should have led to soaring gold prices, it didn't. That is a
> major problem.
>
> Most comments were in the vein of "look at the strength gold has
> while the financials crash. Its only down 15% from its highs."

>
>
> Gold should have been soaring primarily because it is perceived to
> be a Currency. Mr. Pinelli was totally right on this aspect, but
> I missed the implications at that time.
> Gold should have risen against All currencies, it didn't.
>
> Gold struggled and wound up the year only a few % higher, meanwhile
> the USD rose to multi year highs.
>
> If the last quarter can be considered a guide, dollar strength will
> equate to weaker gold.
>
> Like an earlier post commented, there are no oilfields in Gaza. IMHO

Pamela Aden: Ready for a Rebound?

The Aden sisters are icons..that they are not always correct is irrelevant. People who analyze and wrtie letters and articles rarely are. Gold will go up regardless of the relative strength of the dollar..that's yesterdays trend following at best. ALL currencies are being degraded and gold won't be fooled by any of them. NXG is hardly appropriate for risk averse gold players..go for GG or AUY..most would be better off with GDX....

Don't Miss the Coming Gold Bull

At last a name that fits both the attitude and the foresight..Of course, gold is not going to drop like a rock! DZZ is a fools play and a sure loser. But then..some people hate a thing just because they need something..Buy GLD ..GG...AUY...


On Dec 31 09:43 AM NOWHEREMAN wrote:

> Good for you. Stick to your guns.
>
> My prediction: Gold will drop like a rock before a sustained rally
> occurs. BUY DZZ NOW.
>
> No reasons or explanations needed, ala Pinelli.

Nine Ways to Profit in 2009

Attention Investment Shoppers...Carefully read 1977blahblah..That is without a doubt the framework for a great contraindicator play...
1. Oil at $10-15..What? A quart? Oil will easily hit a high of $85 in Summer
2. Gold..$500!! Only if there is a world wide monster deflation...which is NOT in the cards...Gold will hit a high between $1100 and 1250...

To our author! Matt....the Russian economy won't collapse..they can live of monetary reserves and nat gas to Europe..Venezuela! Adios Hugo..it was not nice knowing ya....
IF a major partner..I suppose you mean France..Germany..Italy... ..pulls out they'll all pull out...Which won't happen...moving back into Deutchmarks or Francs..or (God forbid..) the Lira are major headaches and take much time to implement....


On Jan 02 11:17 AM 1977°C wrote:

> Things I agree:
>
> 1.Crude Oil 10-15 a barrel.
> 2.Sell financials indefinitely.
> 3.Sell China or Asia or any index even DAX or DJIA will do.
> 4.Sell REIT.
>
>
> I don't agree:
>
> 1.Gold will crash more than Oil, probably we are heading for 200-300
> $ an ounce soon.
>
> If Oil will be 20$ I promise Gold won't be 1000 nor 700, it will
> be at highest 500.

Eight Themes for 2008: How Did They Do?

Matt...many of the themes you chose to invest in in 2008 need time to play out..for instance..
1. I like gold in a longer term vehicle like the ETF GLD ...same for the Ag side...DBA and an Ag sector fund..maybe MOO are great longer term plays..Both Gold and Ag are parts of an unstoppable secular wave..one plays on papers inherent weaknesses..the other, literally, on a growing populations hunger.
2. Your currency calls were right on the money...the C$ loss was unfortunate since you had the right scenario! Options for those swing trades makes a lot of sense....

Don't Miss the Coming Gold Bull

Your vindictiveness is getting great reviews! Keep it up....
Please..REFER US TO THE ALPHA ARTICLES YOU'VE WRITTEN..WE'RE ALL DYING TO SEE THEM.....



On Dec 31 09:43 AM aitvaras wrote:

> Good for you. Stick to your guns.
>
> My prediction: Gold will drop like a rock before a sustained rally
> occurs. BUY DZZ NOW.
>
> No reasons or explanations needed, ala Pinelli.

Don't Miss the Coming Gold Bull

"If forced selling comes into play.." Absolutely briliant! Is there ANYTHING that won't fall if forced selling comes into play? Banks are NOT selling..that happened way back when..but..NoWhereMan seems to have missed that! If anything..look for Saudi Arabia and several oil producing states to buy Gold....
Look in your rearview miron and all you'll see is the vindictiveness and shortsightedness of a certain poster...lokk forward! And make a profit..Best to you all....


On Dec 31 06:40 PM aitvaras wrote:

> Comet1, I don't really believe it will drop like a rock but it has
> the potential to do so if additional forced selling comes into play.
> I'm pretending to be Greg Pinelli who has been tauting stocks of
> all stripes without rhyme or reason during a Bear Market in the middle
> of a severe recession.
>
> Every stock or ETF he picks is a long position. Meanwhile, since
> I believe we are still in a Bear Market and the Recession will get
> worse, I picked something he loves and UltraShorted it.
>
> Another reason, however miniscule, is that the Central Banks will
> dump more Gold than usual because of its current value and Gold is
> now up 8 years in a row.
>
> Are you willing to bet the Bank on 9, I am not.
>
> IMHO

Don't Miss the Coming Gold Bull

Of course..this is absolute nonsense! Naufal is correct and the embittered a..whatever, who I am now referring to as NoWhereMan never analyzes..never writes an article..and never gives a solid recommendation....
It would be impossible for anyone to find a bigger potential loser than DZZ..but then..why would anyone be surprised?
Gold and silver ave been..and will continue to make..anti-T bill moves..



On Dec 31 09:43 AM aitvaras wrote:

> Good for you. Stick to your guns.
>
> My prediction: Gold will drop like a rock before a sustained rally
> occurs. BUY DZZ NOW.
>
> No reasons or explanations needed, ala Pinelli.

Seismic Geopolitical Events Have Little Effect on Markets

I don't necessarily have problems with some of your conclusions..but what you're doing pal is ranting! Also..if YOU want to show people MORAL courage how about attaching your REAL name to those statements instead of hiding behind a slogan??
This is an INVESTMENT site not a forum for the angry and disenfranchised!


On Dec 31 01:16 PM Socialism cannot compete! wrote:

> "least attractive geopolitical backdrop"...

Seismic Geopolitical Events Have Little Effect on Markets

Aly-khan....I like the mention of the fall of the Shah..easily the most significant event in the Middle East in the past 30 years..a true geopolitical marker from which a lot of the side shows and struggles flow. My guess is we'll hear much less from Iran and about Iran in 2009..almost certainly neither Israel nor the US will even seriously contemplate an attack on them.
It will be very interesting to watch what effect drastically reduced money flows to radical groups funneled from the Saudis/Iran will have on Mideast power struggles (especially internal..Shia v Sunni).


On Dec 31 10:37 AM Aly-khan Satchu wrote:

> Dear Matt,
>
> A very interesting piece. May I challenge a couple of your conclusions.
>
>
> The blow off top to $147.00 was substantially driven by fears that
> the US or Israel was readying an attack on Iran. Quite properly,
> the consequences of such an attack were impossible to model. Iran
> is not Iraq. It is a materially different proposition. Once the President
> ruled this out the market slipped into free fall.
>
> Re: Gaza
>
> The Gaza strip is best characterised as a prison. Therefore, besides
> lobbing a few totally ineffective rockets, there is no risk of reaction
> or contagion. Therefore, Gold and Oil were unable to rally. It hardly
> compares with the toppling of the Shah [for example] when Gold surged
> last time around.
>
> Re: India and Mumbai
>
> The Sensex is one side of the coin. Have you had a peek at the Karachi
> stock Exchange? Thats certainly reacted. The Sensex had already tumbled
> from over 20,000 to below 10,000. The attack whilst alarming was
> not material.
>
> Re: Russia and Georgia.
>
> Putin certainly served notice of a sort but within a few weeks, the
> Economy cratered world wide. Had that episode occurred in the early
> months of the year the reaction would have been entirely differently.
>
>
> I wish you a wonderful new Year.
>
> Aly-Khan Satchu
> rich.co.ke
>
> I have written a commentary all year here
> www.rich.co.ke/rctools...
>
> Please use the calendar to see comments and when.

Seismic Geopolitical Events Have Little Effect on Markets

Meant to mention a third possible event...I'm not convinced, however, that it won't be suoerceded by something that dwarfs it..that's the China train stoppages this past year..They caused a tremendous reevaluation among the Chinese people of the abilities of the Communist Govt to manage or control anything! This has led the Coastal market barons to be much bolder in defying edicts and directions.
This COULD prove an earth shattering first crack in even nominal communist control..real control might already be done. China has NEVER handled change well..stay tuned!

Seismic Geopolitical Events Have Little Effect on Markets

Matt..thanks for at least mentioning geopolitical events on Alpha! There were, to my way of thinking, 2 (possibly 3) critical events for 2008.
The first, and most important, was the election of Barrack Obama. The prospective Administration has already had an impact in foreign affairs..the Israeli attacks on Gaza are a direct consequence of their estimation a new American day has arrived and they are going to have to fend for themselves in an exceedingly dangerous neighborhood...these are message attacks.
Obamas people will change the entire investment landscape with a speed that has become a forgotten thing in the Bush years...much more forceful regulation..huge programs..a virtual reworking of who gets what and how much.
Second, but of equal importance, is the recognition of Peak Oil (which is just as well renamed Maximum Oil Production because it causes less constipation among the deniers). The IEA of all groups used every euphemism BUT the real words Peak Oil to describe the reality we face. The current price collapse has only (and very temporarily) masked this phenomenon. All hell will be unleashed the next surge around!
The first casuality of Peak Oil..very likely Mexico. It's no coincidence that drug cartel violence and in your face activity is related to rapidly diminishing resources at the Govts disposal to deal with it.
Mumbai and Georgia are really sideshows..Russia is in NO position to do more than roll rusty tanks across a near border and make some noise. The Indians have no future fighting Pakistan because the country would crumble and then they'd have radical Islamist groups causing even more trouble......

How Geopolitical Unrest Is Affecting Oil and Global Currencies

Your precisely correct! At least Marc Faber sticks his neck out and has a track record....2 very solid reasons for buying gold...It certainly makes no sense like a...whatever to hold it's being held down by conspiracies from outer space...but then..some reason is better than none...


On Dec 29 03:12 PM Simmons wrote:

> Marc Faber is bullsih on Gold for 2 reasons:
>
> 1) Increased Geo-Political Risks
> 2) Money Printing from the FED
>
> marcfaberblog.blogspot.../