Seeking Alpha
View as an RSS Feed

Greg Weston  

View Greg Weston's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Trading Obama: Solar Stocks, GM Debt, Ambac Calls, Lorillard and Goldman Puts [View article]
    Big Z: Given that Lehman unsecured creditors I think will get about 10 cents on the dollar (based on the CDS auction), and that lawsuits take a long time, I think the prospects of getting much back from Lehman are poor.

    That said, I don't mean to say that JASO is a bad play right now, just inferior to the other companies I mentioned.

    Non-I:

    I disagree that GM will be allowed to file for bankruptcy. While the job losses could be minimized with a quick bankruptcy and subsequent bailout, the huge credit losses to banks, retail investors, mutual funds, and GM's gigantic supplier base would still occur. Its creditors, quite rationally, have been willing to extend payment dates knowing that they will recover little in bankruptcy.

    The best case scenario here is really amazing. If GM gets enough money for AAA rating, XGM will go ABOVE par because of the 7.75% coupon, to something in the 28-31 range. And why not? If the feds are the major shareholder, it makes sense that this debt will become among the safest of all corporate debt.
    Nov 7, 2008. 07:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Trading Obama: Solar Stocks, GM Debt, Ambac Calls, Lorillard and Goldman Puts [View article]
    Tom: Also, Volker is respected now because he implemented a tight monetary policy when it was called for. Right now, we are facing rapid deflation. I hope he recognizes this.
    Nov 7, 2008. 02:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Trading Obama: Solar Stocks, GM Debt, Ambac Calls, Lorillard and Goldman Puts [View article]
    Tom: To be more clear, I think ABK will fail, but under the limited circumstances in which it does not fail, the stock could really do well. It's a very cheap hedge if you are short financials.
    Nov 7, 2008. 02:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Trading Obama: Solar Stocks, GM Debt, Ambac Calls, Lorillard and Goldman Puts [View article]
    TG-Sune and Fuge:

    Thank you for the corrections. I meant electronic manufacturing demand is _elastic_, which is clear from the context, and I did indeed confuse the names of those companies. I will email SA corrections later.

    Wez, XGM are senior unsecured notes. It know it is odd for notes to trade on stock exchanges, but these were aimed at retail investors. GM needed to leave no source of borrowing unturned.

    Nov 7, 2008. 02:20 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Expecting Epic Gains in Gold Miners [View article]
    Sorry people, the money supply growth all occured 1993-2006.
    Oct 28, 2008. 05:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Expecting Epic Gains in Gold Miners [View article]
    bot: banks AND borrowers need to cooperate with the Fed if the collapse in the money supply is to be corrected. Right now they are not. Consumers and businesses are being crushed with record levels of debt, and many, perhaps even most, financial entities are insolvent if their assets are marked to market.

    Japan has done everything it could to fix its deflationary spiral, but failed. The Nikkei and nominal land prices are well below levels from the early 1980's.

    It is certainly possible, in theory, that we will see an inflationary overreaction to the current inflation. That's why I am short gold via GLD puts rather than outright shorts: my downside is limited.

    Nonetheless I think this is very unlikely. Japan 1990-2008 is not the only example of prolonged deflation BTW, this happened to the US during the great depression as well as several times between 1865 and 1914.

    Finally, even if deflation is not as bad as I fear, a return to the low stable inflation of 1984-2000 would still be horrible for gold.
    Oct 27, 2008. 03:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Expecting Epic Gains in Gold Miners [View article]
    Hal confirms the stereotype of goldbugs as Rush Limbaugh-listening nuts ranting and raving about "Marxism."

    Buy and hold? Well if you had done that in 1980, you only would have had to wait 28 years to make your money back.

    See you in 2036 Hal. In the meantime more rational investors will be buying companies that produce and sell goods and services for a profit. Your metal will sit in you backyard bomb shelter collecting dust while normal investors will enjoy reaping dividends and capital gains.
    Oct 27, 2008. 11:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Miners: Amazingly Cheap [View article]
    If "Fed money is flooding the market" then why is it so hard to get a mortgage or business loan?

    The US real estate market and stock markets have lost a combined $8-$12 trillion. Leverage is collapsing. This means a vastly smaller money supply. Which means fewer dollars chasing the same amount of gold (and silver, oil, corn, etc) leading to falling prices.

    I would not be surprised to see gold return to $400-450 range.
    Oct 27, 2008. 11:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Miners: Amazingly Cheap [View article]
    The second of 2 SA articles today pumping gold that ignore deflation.

    For an overview see this article by a former gold bull:
    globaleconomicanalysis...

    Even better, look at the rise in the dollar and the fall in every single other commodity.

    BTW India is the biggest buyer of consumer gold, and is now deeper in economic crises that the US.
    Oct 27, 2008. 11:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Expecting Epic Gains in Gold Miners [View article]
    Another article pumping gold that doesn't mention that the current worldwide deflation.

    An overview from January that has been proved right:

    globaleconomicanalysis...
    Oct 27, 2008. 11:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Solar Stocks on Sale [View article]
    Thank you for the great article! At this point, I don't think you have to be very good to invest in solar companies. They all strike me as undervalued.

    Trading almost perfectly in tandem with oil does not make much sense since power companies have to buy solar, and retail sales will only increase because buyers care about the environment, get tax breaks, and increase the value of their homes and businesses.
    Oct 24, 2008. 03:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Starbucks Stops Paying the Rent [View article]
    Interesting. I am a real estate lawyer, and Starbucks is quite typical with these hardball tactics.

    Commercial real estate is imploding because of news like this. Assumptions about rent and rent growth were too high, as was the degree of leverage in these deals.

    If you have a real estate contract dispute, DO NOT assume the other party is going to work things out with you in a fair matter. Especially if the other party is a big corporation like Starbucks or DR Horton. Instead, hire a lawyer immediately. Too many people wait until too long before hiring a lawyer, and in the mean time take actions that hurt their positions.
    Oct 23, 2008. 04:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Gold Will Rocket [View article]
    Also beware of professional gold bulls. They are bullish on Gold at 100, 1000, and everything in between. That's their job.

    Oct 23, 2008. 04:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Gold Will Rocket [View article]
    Another tired conspiracy-theory-lade... article pumping gold.

    Sorry, those positions you bought at 950/oz are not coming back.

    While a stopped clock is right twice a day, goldbugs have been right twice in 30 years. Gold has had 2 bull markets in the past 30 years. The first one ending in 1980 and the 2nd ending this year.

    Not much of an investment if you ask me.

    Gold is going to continue to fall just like every other commodity.

    PS: Buy some GLD 65 puts for Jan 2010. Only $8 a pop. Huge profits when the gold bubble ends and the metal returns to its long-term price of $350-450/oz. I think we may even overcorrect to below that range.
    Oct 23, 2008. 04:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bullion Shortage and Spot Prices Tell Two Different Gold Stories [View article]
    Your blog was pumping silver and talking about "bullion shortages" back when it was at $17.

    Oct 16, 2008. 07:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
126 Comments
38 Likes