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Greg Weston

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  • Are Homebuilders Ready for Another Drop? [View article]
    Very good article. I hope to do a balance sheet and cash flow analysis on some homebuilders in the near future.

    Oct 1, 2008. 03:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Maguire Properties is Going Down [View article]
    tquill: glad to help.

    I note that an analyst recently estimated that Maguire's NAV was below $5 as of 6/30/08. And of course the CRE market has just gotten worse in the months since then.

    Here is the relevant portion from the Dow Jones article on MPG:

    "This is not going to change my opinion of the stock," said Dave Rodgers, an analyst at RBC Capital Markets, noting that Maguire is over 80% levered and cash-flow negative.

    Rodgers noted that, among publicly traded REITs, Maguire has the second-largest exposure after SL Green Realty Corp. (SLG) to financial services, which they estimate is about 36% of revenue.

    "The broader concern is there is too much debt, not enough cash and not enough credit available," he said. RBC Capital's net asset value estimates for Maguire as of June 30 was just under $5 a share.
    Sep 30, 2008. 03:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Maguire Properties is Going Down [View article]
    MPG is down more than 40% since I made my short call 7 weeks ago.
    Sep 29, 2008. 12:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • European Finance Now Under Attack [View article]
    Good summary of the banking crisis in Europe. So how are you playing this? Short the Euro and Pound? Long GLD?
    Sep 29, 2008. 11:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chewing on the FDIC List of 'Problem' Banks [View article]
    By the way Edward: Good detective work in this article!
    Sep 10, 2008. 11:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chewing on the FDIC List of 'Problem' Banks [View article]
    BKUNA, DSL, and FED are all banks that have recently been forced to sign agreements with the OTS due to their massive option-ARM portfolios, mostly in CA and FL. I have written multiple articles on these "option-ARM" triplets.

    It really says something that the list is this long and doesn't include WaMu, which is so clearly on the brink and with credit default swaps indicating a huge chance of a near-term insolvency.
    Sep 10, 2008. 11:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stunning Reversals: Is This a Market or a Casino? [View article]
    Another great article Mish.

    I second the poster above, I'd love to hear any insight you may have on who/what/where/when sold CDS on any GSE instrument taking a haircut.

    Brad Delong here suggests that the bailout is going to prevent any CDS from being triggered:
    Sep 8, 2008. 03:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • WaMu: Speculative Value Play [View article]

    My comment above about not trusting the numbers of these Option Arm banks was spot on.

    Finally, at long last, banking regulators are taking heed. Now the OTS is cracking down on WaMu, and the stock is down 20% on a day most financials are up big.
    Sep 8, 2008. 02:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Housing Prices: Bottom or Temporary Bear Break? [View article]
    I agree that housing has clearly not hit bottom. Good fair-minded article that considered both sides of the argument.
    Sep 5, 2008. 01:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Option Arm Triplets: Dead Banks Walking [View article]
    Update on CA and FL Housing:

    Please check out the entire article here about how foreclosures are not only getting worse, but getting worse quickly, especially in California and Florida, where DSL/FED and BKUNA have most of their OA lending.

    Homes in foreclosure process set another record
    California, Florida continue to drive national numbers in MBA survey{21015C68-EDCF-4E8B-B...

    In particular, these portions:

    ---Increases in foreclosures seen in California and Florida overshadow improvements seen in states including Texas, Massachusetts and Maryland---

    ---California and Florida alone accounted for 39% of all of the foreclosures started nationally during the second quarter. Together, the two states made up 73% of the increase in foreclosures between the first and second quarters, according to the MBA.
    "The worst states are getting worse,"---

    --- Certain loan types also are driving rates, Brinkmann said.
    "Subprime ARM loans accounted for 36% of all foreclosures started and prime ARMs, which include option ARMs, represented 23%," he said in a news release. "However, the increase in prime ARMs foreclosure starts was greater than the combined increase in fixed-rate and ARM subprime loans," he added.
    In future quarters, foreclosure start numbers will probably be increasingly dominated by problems with prime ARMs, he said. That's due partly to the difficultly some borrowers are having with prime, option ARMs.---

    My fact-driven opinion that DSL, BKUNA, and FED will all soon be shut down by the FDIC and see their stocks go to 0 is supported by even more new facts on the ground.

    Maybe because I am here in San Diego, one of the ground-zeros for the mortgage/housing crises, while many analysts are ensconced in the very unique and still-inflated Manhattan market they refuse to recognize that these banks are on their death bed, and only being kept alive in the short term by the extraordinary degree incompetence banking regulators have shown in even letting them get this far.
    Sep 5, 2008. 01:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Option Arm Triplets: Dead Banks Walking [View article]
    Yes Wez, I also took the crazy run-up last week as a chance to add to my position. I didn't manage to sell right at the peak, but my call writes (FEDIW) that I sold 8/28 for $1.15 are now worth about 20 cents.

    Looks a few other people with even better timing managed to short FEDIW at 1.30 that same day. Congrats to them.

    Pretty nice 78% gain in one week for me though.

    If you have the nerves short like heck any of the triplets when they have these stupid speculative/short-cove... run-ups.
    Sep 4, 2008. 03:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Google’s Chrome Saturating an Already Crowded Browser Market [View article]
    Thanks for the thoughtful article.

    I have tried a few other searches, and I still find Google's to be much better than the alternatives. We'll see if that ever changes. The only major problem with Google searches are the "spam page" results. I always wonder why it is so hard for them to just block these sites by writing an routine that excludes sites that have thousands of internal links to thousands of other pages on the same site.
    Sep 3, 2008. 01:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Struggling GT Solar Gets Mixed Reviews [View article]
    Do you have any thoughts on their vulnerability to lower-cost competitors?
    Sep 2, 2008. 04:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Add Exposure to Clean Energy Alternatives [View article]
    Great article! I am long out of the money PBW calls. I think we'll see a big boost in all of these stocks when Democrats make their expected gains this election year. (Not that I think Republicans are all bad on this issue, the Govenator has been a good leader on alternative energy for example.)
    Sep 2, 2008. 03:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • WaMu: Speculative Value Play [View article]
    1/3 of book is a great deal until you realize that WM has not written down the value of its performing loans, which are going sour at breakneck speed. Check out my articles on other banks with OA portfolios for more details, much of this applies to WM too.
    Sep 2, 2008. 03:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment