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Gregor Macdonald

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  • California Not a Trendsetter on Energy Policy [View article]
    For those reading this thread, I would advise a review of Jevon's Paradox. Regards, G
    May 15, 2009. 08:13 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil Volatility Will Keep Killing the Economy in Waves [View article]
    It's a little surprising to learn, over this several month period that I have had my posts syndicated here at S.A., that most commenters seem unaware that...

    1. Most posts on SA come from an original blog.
    2. SA changes the title of most of these posts.

    If you want to know what the Author really meant, I would suggest readers also check the original blog.


    Apr 15, 2009. 09:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Did the ECB Save COMEX from Gold Default? [View article]
    "On Tuesday, March 31st, Deutsche Bank (DB) amazed everyone even more, by delivering a massive 850,000 ounces, or 8500 contracts worth of the yellow metal. By the close of business, even after this massive delivery, about 15,050 April contracts, or 1.5 million ounces, still remained to be delivered."

    Could you check your math, in the above passage?

    Apr 3, 2009. 10:33 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is the Dollar Rally Over Now? [View article]
    Oops. Nothing short of hilarious to hear all the trend-following chatter from the Dollar bulls in this comment thread, just 24-72 hours before the USD got mugged by the FED.
    Mar 20, 2009. 03:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Non-Opec Oil Production Has Peaked [View article]
    Yes,kebu77, there are many of us attracted to the issue of non-OPEC supply. You'll find that I linked to Ace's TOD essay. at my website, when I published the original post.

    You can also use the search function at my site to see the other posts have made on "non-OPEC" over the past 6+ months.

    non-OPEC supply is a big deal. It's become a key topic to cover in my monthly newsletter as well.

    Mar 6, 2009. 05:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Non-Opec Oil Production Has Peaked [View article]
    That's very kind of you to say, Ferdinand. You're always welcome to see my posts as they come up about 12 hours on my own website, before they are republished here.

    Perhaps your editor will need you to do some final proofreading, and you can work some of the material in, that you find here.


    Mar 5, 2009. 04:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Do We Need Banks at All? [View article]
    And Kessler's pieces in the WSJ the past 6 month are glib, smug, puerile, and wrong. They are not excellent. They are an embarassment.

    You seem to agree that the destruction of working capital in the OECD via the insolvency of the Anglo-American banking system (and probably the European system) is also "no problem."

    Good luck with that view.
    Feb 24, 2009. 10:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Eight Reasons Bank of America Is Going to $20 [View article]
    The Anglo-American banking system is insolvent. Period. BAC is a part of that insolvency. Nothing can happen now to change that, with the exception perhaps of BAC taking delivery of gold to shore up its capital base.
    Feb 22, 2009. 01:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Global Sovereign Bond Watch: Overstuffed Supply [View article]
    I would just comment that long-dated UK Gilts and long-dated US Treasuries are on pace to lose 20% of price, from the top. We're not there yet. But look at UK long-dated Gilts. They are leading the way down.

    Feb 3, 2009. 07:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Global Sovereign Bond Watch: Overstuffed Supply [View article]
    I agree with Bookkeepers remarks. I don't know if Bookkeeper agrees with mine. It's also possible I could have used different terms to transmit my views, thus getting closer in agreement to Bookkeeper's perspective.

    However, I suspect that bookkeeper and are asking the same question: in a world where cash itself has been dislocated and may see further dislocation, does one become more concerned about holding non-cash assets. Or less? In a world where the "capital-potential" of all assets including cash comes under question, what to do?

    I assert that since WW2 we have all lived in an era where the income stream behind senior sovereign debt was rarely if ever in question. The only real question in senior sovereign debt in this era was inflation risk. Not repayment risk. In addition, this era has also been marked by currencies that have only had to deal with the same questions, of inflation or deflation.(There are indeed OECD examples that don't conform to this view, but I will leave them aside for now).

    For two decades you could have heard me say "I don't ever want to live in a world where paper money in the OECD becomes such a problem that holding gold becomes preferrable. Moreoever, I certainly don't want to live a world where industrialism comes under such enormous pressure from financial system issues, that gold mining, a worthless human endeavor, becomes not only profitable but a sector with a bright future."

    I think we are living in that world right now.

    I agree with bookkeeper, using his/her term of "capital-potential" that such potential continues to bleed away from physical assets with real value. However, in a world where the store-of-value is now bleeding away from cash and sovereign bonds, then perhaps we should make a grand leveling and ask anew where is there store-of-value?


    Jan 30, 2009. 12:38 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Russian Oil Production Appears to Have Peaked [View article]
    Thanks for all the remarks. I was surprised the Pravda picked this article up overnight, and published it today with my permission.

    I actually think Russia could help its own cause if it were to either admit to peak (peak flows of course) and/or release updated reserves data. In an article last year which could be regarded as naiive (but that's OK by me) I suggested that Russia should be more transparent. Won't happen anytime soon, but that's what I would advise.

    Oil Glasnost. Advice To Russia: Try Transparency

    Jan 28, 2009. 03:24 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment