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Gregory Orr

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  • Potash Corporation: Why You Should Buy This Stock [View article]
    good questions!
    Mar 26 11:45 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Potash Inching Closer To My $40 Price Target [View article]
    They haven't Kissed and made up yet, but at least they're having coffee in the diner. I wonder if events in Ukraine are making Sinofert a little nervous... A formal announcement out of URALL, or a fresh China contract, or other Asian follow-ons could give the stock another nice pop. There has been so much bad news for so long in Ferts that anyone who's stayed in has grown Rhino Skin by now. Got just a little dip below 33 on Monday, which got shaken off pretty fast, so it'shard for me to see a big rush for the exits any time soon. Major progress in mines in South America? Or more desperate measures in Russia? Or just poor sales executions at Canpotex... Still think the potential movers favor the upside.
    Mar 6 01:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • FT: Uralkali investors favor renewing Belarus potash partnership [View news story]
    Wow. POT was dead flat for almost a month, stuck between 33 and 34, and the explosion finally came. Mar 22 36 calls were 4c Tues, hit 64c today. Looks like it's holding on to most of the gain this afternoon. April 19 36 calls were 22c Tues, hovering around a buck now. The debt restructure, from 5.25 to 3.625 for 10 years will improve cash flow and support the dividend till earnings firm up. Trying to measure how much of the up move is Ukraine speculation, how much is the positive debt restructuring, and how much might be contract negotiations in China, or discussions taking place at URALL... Always good to take profits, and keep some money on the table.
    Mar 6 01:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Putin And Potash: A Potentially Explosive Combo [View article]
    Thanks, K, for an informative and concise piece. This is also a beautifully written piece, a rarity in finance media. I hope your boss is paying you top dollar for this quality of writing!
    And yes, John LeCarre would have been proud to write the Potash script. Getting inside the mind of the Russians is like finding yourself on the set of Doctor Strangelove. I have wondered if the breakup might have been an attempt to ice the Jansen project, or to shut down new greenfield development in general. In any regard, I suspect nobody is happy with the drop in earnings at URALL. I wonder if they're watching their global competitors for announcements about further production cuts or cancellations in planned capacity expansion. I'm assuming the Russians have a a rational strategy here... which could be totally irrational on my part!
    "Explosive" is a good word to describe the potential of this market. Just as the drop in July was "Cataclysmic", and irrational, and really was not proportionate to global market fundamentals. I always maintain a long call position in POT, to have exposure to a reversion to the mean, based on fundamentals, and the reestablishment of cartel pricing. Putin needs cash! Let's see if a little arm-twisting leads to a kiss-and-make-up west of the Urals...
    Feb 21 12:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Zacks' Bear Of The Day: Potash [View article]
    I'd say a good, conservative options play here would be the Jan 15 calls, 40 strike, for a buck. If there is reconciliation in Russia, and a big pop, they could easily triple, or more, and if there are no surprises to the upside by 2Q earnings, they will still have some value. That would be a risk trade, and you have to be prepared to lose half the value, but not a bad place to put a few shekels and have exposure to a potentially explosive upside move. Markets get exuberant, and overrun, so be disciplined about taking profits. Three slices of the pizza is perfect. Trying to stuff down the whole pie will ruin you. Good to casually walk away from the table when the Cramer Bus pulls up...
    Feb 8 10:28 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Zacks' Bear Of The Day: Potash [View article]
    Such an awesome trading stock. Closed out my long position at 33 today, just not confident it will break out above the 35.50 recent high, given the earnings miss. Chart has flattened out this afternoon... If the 33 price holds, and the volatility drops, it would be a good time to open up a put-leaning strangle. 200 day MA just under 35, which I like best as an Opinion of Value. The big wild card is when, I would assert, the Russians go back to cartel status, or they have a major production snafu, running at 100% capacity. Still, Ural can't supply the entire market, and POT won't break on price, it seems. Good to see corn on the rise a little bit. Modestly rising grain is the ideal for POT, farmers making money. And yeah, the analysts don't give you your money back when they're wrong.
    Feb 6 03:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • In The Pursuit Of Dividends: Potash [View article]
    Didn't see any mention of falling CapEx and its impact on cash flow, and dividend support. I agree that POT is a great trading stock, because its a really dull business that literally changes with the weather. Management may well be a Boys Club. Other than innovations like solution mining, the business poses high barriers to new competitors, and POT is poised to be the marginal high-price supplier if demand rebounds. It is possible that the new China contract will be the floor for potash prices, and I don't think investors at Uralkali are exactly thrilled with management over there. From where I sit, the dividend looks moderately safe, and I would expect surprises more likely to the upside, such as follow-on contracts from other Asian customers, or more robust demand from North and Latin America, as well as the big wild-card, a possible reconciliation between the Russians, and a return to cartel pricing. I think this is a great IRA stock for the very long-term investor, but who knows what the future holds. I think the likelihood is greater that this will be a $60 stock in three years, than a $15 stock.
    Feb 4 12:21 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Potash raised to Outperform at Raymond James, new deals set price floor [View news story]
    So the fundamentals look stable, and wouldnt expect any big surprises on either demand or supply side. Other than something catastrophic, which is always possible for anyone, anytime, I would think a Kiss-and-make-up by the Russkies would be the biggest potential mover, and likely to the upside. Funny that investors tend to like earnings now, more than posturing about some future advantage. Interesting that RJ price target is 37, pretty close to the price before the Ural cliff dive, the end of the world as we know it, or whatever that analyst called it back in July. The business model is a freight train that just keeps ploughing along, and really should have a chart more like P&G. Hey, maybe if the Russians get into shaving cream and laundry softener, then P&G will look more like POT...
    Jan 28 03:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Ways To Play The Potash Rally [View article]
    Thanks Chris for another very informative piece. Of the projected capacity expansion, do you think all projects are full steam ahead, or what % of expansion might be on ice?
    Jan 21 03:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Potash Corp. Plans To Counter Industry Headwinds [View article]
    Bought back all my short puts at 33.99, sold my long calls. Love POT as a trading stock, can be really volatile without ever going anywhere. Watching for a dip below 33, sell a bunch more puts, buy some calls. POT got pretty exuberant today, overshot, but my gut tells me the new trading range will be 32.75-34.25. Waiting for one of the smart kids to write something on Asia contracts, or anything demand-related. As to Charlie, yeah, this is the big conundrum. Canpotex is really geared to export to Asia, so even robust demand in NA could leave POT in limbo. And will Ural satisfy China demand... I wish I knew. But SOMEBODY knows, and the dirt usually shows up in the options markets. A lot of positions were closed in the Jan 31 expiration in today"s trade. I admit I have drank the permabull kool aid, but I try to keep a balance long/short, and count on the spikes in volatility to generate decent profits.
    Jan 8 04:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Potash Corp. Plans To Counter Industry Headwinds [View article]
    And waiting for color on China contract
    Jan 7 04:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Potash Corp. Plans To Counter Industry Headwinds [View article]
    Sold puts on the dip today, will roll down my long calls if we get another dip. 2013 was a great year for rainfall in N America, lots of nutrient gone to leaching, runoff, and uptake. I think drought is the biggest real factor affecting demand. If farmers dont plant, then corn prices will be higher in the future. As long as corn hangs around $5 a bushel, then farmers will make money, and poor countries can afford grain. $8 corn is not good for the big picture.
    Jan 7 04:22 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Potash Corp. Addressing Challenges But Pricing Headwinds Remain [View article]
    thanks, PP, for a really solid overview of the potash market, from the supply side. Was a good year for rainfall in North America, which may be the biggest factor in actually creating physical demand for the nutrient. Waiting to hear details of the China contract. $4 corn should be a bit of a disincentive for fert demand in the Pacific Rim, but who knows. Looks like palm exports are up out of Southeast Asia, which might boost pot demand. Any thoughts about the demand side of the fert market?
    Dec 31 11:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • When Will Potash Corp. Earnings Turn Around? [View article]
    Following on man3, how do we know we have a clean number on current stockpiles? I definitely don't know, but I'd guess, with the strong harvest and good rainfall, the soils should be at least somewhat depleted. My gut is that the Ural move was to kill or postpone Jansen...
    Dec 11 11:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Potash Corp.: 18% Laid Off, But One Missing [View article]
    Also looks like N Amer corn yield per acre could hit a record... guess ive drank the kool aid about hybrid seed pulling more K out of soil to boost yield...Also saw India buying lots of Palm... do you think Ural can supply most of the Pac rim demand? Guess i tend to favor POT as last man standing if prices stay low longer. I also wonder what Howard Buffett, a farmer, might do when he takes over Berkshire. So much seems to hinge on a China contract in next few weeks. Strong US GDP should mean strong China exports, GDP, and protein demand, and that the Chinese tend to not like being in short supply on materials.
    Dec 8 04:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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