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Gregory Orr

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  • Potash Corp.: Good Days Ahead [View article]
    I have serious doubts about whether Jansen will even be completed, with prices under 400 a ton, and rail capacity already strained. I've heard construction costs of $1500-2000 per ton of new capacity. Payback horizon looks pretty far off at 350 a ton. POT keeps cutting their cost per ton, and cranking out cash. As an investment I would look at it like an inflation-hedged bond, but I like it better to trade, because of the changes in volatility. I would either buy it for the dividend and forget it, or take profits when it pops, and be patient for bottoms. if Solikamsk is permanently shut down, it could push the top of POT trading range above $40...but I'd rather cash out at 38, and buy back at 33
    Nov 24, 2014. 12:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Potash Corporation - Attractive Dividend Hides An Overpriced Stock [View article]
    Hmmm. Highly volatile commodity price...and only modest earnings growth expectations? Guess we'll see about that.
    i'll take all you want to sell at $19
    Nov 22, 2014. 09:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Potash Corp.: Good Days Ahead [View article]
    White Swan event in the form of mine flooding. Russians have made such a mess of the industry, their own company...Canadians, just steady as she goes. Good management always trumps in the long run. Wonder when the bean counters will raise their target over $40...
    Nov 22, 2014. 08:59 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Potash Corp Market Fundamentals Remain Challenged [View article]
    How does a bumper crop and perfect growing conditions reduce demand? The north american market is sold out, nutrient uptake from the soil has been substantial in the last 2 years, farmers have cash in pocket, and the nutrient is near-term cheap. I look back to the 2010 USDA Soil Survey that said that most of the North American corn belt soils were marginal to deficient in potash. Is the whole potash thing a hoax? Or do low soil levels actually reduce yield?
    I look at POT as an inflation-protected bond that throws off a 4% yield, and it seems like the cash flow situation is only improving, without price increases. If your reasoning is accurate, than BHP would have to be masochistic to move forward with Jansen.
    Oct 2, 2014. 06:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Potash Corp.: A Victory Lap That Is Well Deserved [View article]
    Two good years of rainfall, and the canadian producers are selling out of inventory. URALL investors are not happy with their share price. POT has reaffirmed the dividend, and will continue to pump out cash. Any incremental price increase goes right in the pocket of investors. URALL has signaled a 10% increase in the China price. The dividend yield is 4.16. The correlation is to rainfall, which actually drives consumption, not grain prices. When everyone gets a decent sized piece of a very large pie, that's good. When developing populations can afford grain, that's good too. The uncertainty is out, except for those who manufacture it for a living.
    Sep 12, 2014. 09:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Plunging Corn Prices Encourage Livestock Producers To Fatten Up The Flock [View article]
    Enlightenment! Does anyone keep track of fish production and corn demand?
    Aug 15, 2014. 02:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Potash downgraded at Raymond James on valuation [View news story]
    Very rational of RJ to do so. Clearly, RJ is minding the store, and giving their clients timely advice.
    Aug 1, 2014. 10:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Potash Corp. Expected To Remain Under Pressure? [View article]
    And guess what? AG PROFESSIONAL just published a piece that URALL may increase the china contract price 10% for 2015...
    Jul 30, 2014. 08:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Potash Corp. Expected To Remain Under Pressure? [View article]
    URALL produces less than 12MM tons in a 55MM market. Do they have the capacity to "dump" much more product on the market?? Think they're shooting for 15MM tons, but still, they can't supply the entire market. It's just the China contract price that they can impact. POT management has demonstrated a commitment to hold prices as much as possible, and cut production. Does anyone know the condition and age of URALL infrastructure, or their safety record?? I don't, but I've always had a gut feeling that a major accident is a real possibility, and could be a white swan event for the Canadian producers, perhaps more so than a rapprochement between Bela and Urall, which is also still a real possibility. Would be great if anyone in our community knew what was actually happening on the ground(or, underground??) in Russia. Will Europe and North America pressure China to cut Russian imports? This should be the most boring business in the world, but it reads more like a spy novel. The near-term outlook for demand is "sluggish to improving", but the geopolitical wild cards remain, and should be taken into account. POT can maintain modest margins in this environment, and keep paying out the dividend. Weaker players will fall by the wayside. And the current prices are a real discouragement to new players building, or expanding capacity. POT will supply the marginal demand when it returns, at a higher price than the China contract for sure.
    Jul 30, 2014. 07:00 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Potash Corp. Expected To Remain Under Pressure? [View article]
    Only people living under rocks for the last year would have been disappointed by the earnings release. When you beat consensus by 25%, either the analysts were all asleep, or the news was encouraging, not disappointing. No offense, Apex, but have you been following this market, or did you just fall off the turnip truck and decide to write a potash article?
    Jul 30, 2014. 04:12 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Potash beats by $0.11, beats on revenue [View news story]
    Most bizarre price action I've ever seen. Up $1.68 in pre-market, went to -.03 late in the session ...If you just looked at the chart, you would see an up day with big volume, have to look closely to see the price action. Odd that they would beat on earnings by 25% and wind up flat for the day. I mean really! POT was euphoric in pre-market, up 4.6%, and sold off all day. Also thought it was odd that TD would downgrade to hold, while maintaining a 39 price target, right before earnings. Any thoughts out there?? I'm expecting it to go higher, and it's definitely got momentum...
    Jul 24, 2014. 06:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Potash Corp. Continues Pricing Strategy And Enters Period Of Lower Growth [View article]
    Will read through the archives, and look forward to your next piece!
    All the best..
    Jul 18, 2014. 03:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Potash Corp. Continues Pricing Strategy And Enters Period Of Lower Growth [View article]
    Thanks, GC. Just read the MF article. You mentioned that you expect grain prices and potash to realign into a new cycle of demand. Could you expand on that?
    Jul 17, 2014. 09:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Potash Corp. Continues Pricing Strategy And Enters Period Of Lower Growth [View article]
    Thanks for your excellent work, GC. Any thoughts about how Russian sanctions might impact potash markets?
    Jul 17, 2014. 09:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Potash Corp. Continues Pricing Strategy And Enters Period Of Lower Growth [View article]
    Yes, would be good to hear more about the physical plant. My understanding is that Canpotex distribution infrastructure is state-of-the-art. Yes, URALL produces at a lower cost per ton, but I always have this picture in my mind of a guy with a bushy moustache pounding his fist on the table demanding more production. A major accident in Russia seems like a possibility to me, just a gut feeling. That could make for a "White Swan" event in the potash markets. I definitely have my money on the Canadians to produce a quality product, maintain infrastructure, and focus on worker safety. That steady-as-she-goes approach always wins in the long run. The chance of a major Russian screw-up has to be considered in the big picture, as well as the possibility of URALL and BPC returning to cartel status.
    Jul 16, 2014. 10:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment