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Gregory Orr  

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  • Potash: Buy It For The 7% Yield [View article]
    If the macro environment is challenging for POT, it must be devastating for higher-cost producers. Think Mosaic closed a Saskatch mine, I'm sure BHP can't wait to become the highest-cost producer in Canada and start throwing money in the ground. Just one or two dry years, and the irrationality should swing the other way. Blue-Chip with 7% div yield... That's irrational. Think I'll go load up on Netflix like all the cool kids. Good point about the lack of rebound on nix-K+S. Still think POT would do better managing K+S assets in Canada, and gain the distribution in Europe. Meet the Russkies in Berlin...again...
    Oct 30, 2015. 12:55 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Outlook for potash market to get even worse, Macquarie says [View news story]
    High-cost producers are going belly up, will be a ton of cheap leases at fire-sale prices. Was piqued by the comment about massive stockpiles in China, does anyone have more intel on that??
    Also curious about MacQuarie and BHP... bet this piece created quite a buzz in the BHP Boardroom...

    If China has big stockpiles, then what does that do to the value of Urall's rail network?? Think Sinofert will take control of Urall... What say, Amigos?

    All this speaks to the value of K+S distribution network in Europe. Will POT buy MOS and AGU out of Canpotex, and then bill them for distribution services??
    We're witnessing a massive consolidation, and the low-cost producers with cash and quality management will be waking to a brave new dawn.

    A dry summer or two, and the lemming of Irrationality will about-face...
    Sep 22, 2015. 03:54 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bloomberg: Potash talks up K+S bid while saying not actively engaged [View news story]
    Jochen Tilk got his Masters of Engineering from Aachen(RWTH Aachen??) which has an exchange program with Oxford and MIT, arguably the finest engineering school in Europe. One thing I can say for certain is that JT knows one heck of a lot more about mining and the European market than I do, or probably anyone posting comments on SA. I would take pause before I would call JT's plan foolish. My guess is it's all about distribution. As the Juniors fold up, their assets basically become worthless, for the near term. The big prize here is distribution, as well as "POTblocking" the Russians in Europe
    Sep 17, 2015. 10:23 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Automakers agree to make automatic braking standard in U.S [View news story]
    I just can't wait for the day when I can sit and play Sudoku, instead of getting leg cramps, when the Ecstatic Island Expressway is moving at 4 mph. Kinda cool that an idea, like autonymous driving, could substitute for some massive infrastructure buildout, and better use what we already have. I don't need Fully Auto, just would be nice to relax a bit, and maybe even sleep between NY and VA or the Poconos
    Sep 15, 2015. 09:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Automakers agree to make automatic braking standard in U.S [View news story]
    Was going to suggest maybe she should get out of East New York...
    Sep 15, 2015. 08:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Potash Corp.: Good Days Ahead [View article]
    Thanks Mark. Out of all my posts about Jansen, you're the first person who seems to be thinking about whether the economics actually make sense. Here's to disrobing the Emperor's New Mine
    Sep 12, 2015. 09:12 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Automakers agree to make automatic braking standard in U.S [View news story]
    Long Island drivers will freak out if they can't cut people off within 3 feet of their bumper! Keep wondering if HOV lanes will be converted into AutoDrive, or some hybrid between private and mass transit. Anyone know if it's being developed? Think I'd still sleep with one eye open, like when my girlfriend is driving...
    Sep 11, 2015. 06:36 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Potash declares $0.38 dividend [View news story]
    6% dividend yield. How did POT wind up in the Junk Bond Bin?? Conventional wisdom says K moves with corn. One dry summer, or a flood at Solakansk, or an accident, stronger Ruble, or another Putin Land Grab. Think the Shorts are pretty much out of POT. Waiting for the Cramer Bus to pull up. Someone remind him POT pays a dividend...
    Sep 9, 2015. 06:53 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Come On Potash, Get Serious About K+S [View article]
    Think POT should pick up IPI on the cheap, and just do a JV deal with K+S to distribute in Europe
    Sep 8, 2015. 08:51 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Intrepid Potash closes New Mexico mine following imminent danger order [View news story]
    Wonder how much longer they'll be allowed to evaporate off the Colorado River
    Sep 2, 2015. 12:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Potash - Undervalued Mining Dividend Stocks Turning Into Uncertainties [View article]
    Rich, I was also under the impression that Jansen is being "slow-walked". Think POT wants the distribution assets into Europe via K+S, become less dependent on China, and start shipping product east. Wouldn't surprise me if they shut down the K+S mines entirely. If they want K+S cheap, they should go into a full-fledged price war with URALL. Of course, that would be cutting off their nose to spite their face, Russian-Roulette style...
    Jul 10, 2015. 10:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Potash - Undervalued Mining Dividend Stocks Turning Into Uncertainties [View article]
    Hi DG, like your analysis. Do you have any idea what the projected cost of production is for Jansen? To me, it looks like a huge hole in the ground into which BHP is throwing money. Are they trying to guarantee that the price of potash goes and stays under 200 a ton? I've heard estimates of construction costs of 2000 per ton capacity. If their net operating profit is $100 a ton, isn't that a 20-year payback?? BHP must have a very positive outlook for long-term pricing, or maybe they have a major bug up about getting rejected on the takeover bid. Where are they going to get the rail capacity to get 8 million tons to market?
    Jul 9, 2015. 01:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Potash raised to Buy at UBS on strong dividend, cash flow outlook [View news story]
    A $40 target. Good!
    Dec 22, 2014. 11:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Potash Corp.: Good Days Ahead [View article]
    I have serious doubts about whether Jansen will even be completed, with prices under 400 a ton, and rail capacity already strained. I've heard construction costs of $1500-2000 per ton of new capacity. Payback horizon looks pretty far off at 350 a ton. POT keeps cutting their cost per ton, and cranking out cash. As an investment I would look at it like an inflation-hedged bond, but I like it better to trade, because of the changes in volatility. I would either buy it for the dividend and forget it, or take profits when it pops, and be patient for bottoms. if Solikamsk is permanently shut down, it could push the top of POT trading range above $40...but I'd rather cash out at 38, and buy back at 33
    Nov 24, 2014. 12:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Potash Corporation - Attractive Dividend Hides An Overpriced Stock [View article]
    Hmmm. Highly volatile commodity price...and only modest earnings growth expectations? Guess we'll see about that.
    i'll take all you want to sell at $19
    Nov 22, 2014. 09:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment