Seeking Alpha

Gregory Skidmore » Comments » PHB

  • Bond Wars Update: International and Junk  [View article]
    Also interesting is the EMB is not trading this way. The portfolio do not look that different so this seems to be a PCY issue.
    Sep 18 15:21 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment
  • Bond Wars Update: International and Junk  [View article]
    It looks like PCY is trading at a discount to NAV. Can anyone confirm my logic? It's been this way for several days. I spoke to PowerShares and they seem clueless. These quotes are from yahoo.

    ^PCY-NV 23.26
    ^PCY-IV 22.95
    PCY 20.20


    On Sep 18 01:03 PM rayhendon wrote:

    > Looking at the detail of their holdings, it looks like the death
    > list of an airlines crash where there no survivors. Chilean debt
    > is their largest holding, and the Chilean economy and currency has
    > been besieged lately. This is also true for most of Latin America.
    > Then they have Bulgaria, Hungary and Turkey--two of which (Hungary
    > and Turkey) have currencies under severe attack. I don't have good
    > data on Bulgaria, but it is a former vassal state of Russia, with
    > little experience in modern capitalism.
    >
    > Then, they have over 4.5% invested in Russian bonds. Russia's equity
    > market has been forced to close for the last two days, attributable
    > to the meltdown of some of their largest banks--all are severely
    > undercapitalized (like the U.S. banks, only more so), and the ruble
    > has been vanquished.
    > I have no time table for when any of these collapses will conclude.
    > At the edges of the financial world, all these countries, indeed
    > almost all emerging markets except China and India are suffering
    > greatly as the world's investors try and get a grip of what's happening.
    > I don't think there is going to be any fast recovery for them. But,
    > when they do recover, it will be twice or three times the rate of
    > developed economies. The volatility of emerging markets equities,
    > currenies and debt is exceptional. You must be prepared to take some
    > big lumps if you get into these investments. Personally, I have confidence
    > that most of those I listed will recover. Their economies have far
    > to go on the upside. But their fairy tale growth has ended for now,
    > and it may be some months before all the commotion settles down.
    >
    > For now, there is an international flight to quality--can you believe
    > U.S. Treasuries? They are still the prime debt instruments in the
    > world.
    >
    > Best wishes,
    >
    > Ray
    > Ray
    Sep 18 15:20 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment
More on PHB by Gregory Skidmore
Comments by Ticker
Gregory Skidmore's
Comments Stats
12 comments
Rating: 5 (9 - 4 )