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Grey Owl Capital

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  • eBay: Secular Growth In A Low-Growth World
    Aug. 7, 2014 EBAY 15 Comments


    • The overall economic environment has been and remains weak. Real GDP's four-year CAGR from 2010-2013 is only 2.25%. Retail sales are weak too - growing 2.4% in Q1.
    • Yet, ecommerce remains strong - growing 15% in Q1. Even in a stagnant economy there are secular growers.
    • EBAY's key metrics are growing even faster than ecommerce. Off-EBAY PayPal usage is accelerating. Merchant Services Total Payment Volume grew 33% y/y in Q2 2014.
    • EBAY's shares have been flat for six quarters, but intrinsic value continues to grow.
  • Some Interesting Buys Despite All-Time Market Highs
    May. 14, 2014 PCLN, POST 1 Comment


    • Quarterly letter describing portfolio changes with additional minor comments regarding the macro-economic environment and broad-market valuation.
    • New holding: POST. “Outsider” CEO, using ready-to-eat cereal business as platform to rollup higher growth consumer packaged food industries including active nutrition, organic, breakfast protein, and private label.
    • Also added PCLN. Dominant player in European hotel booking with significant network effect. World’s largest travel agent, but 4% market share means lots of runway to continue rapid growth.
    • Trimmed VRX and WWE. VRX remains a core holding and the subsequent Allergan bid is exciting. WWE’s license renegotiation now mostly reflected in price.
    • Closed MSFT position. MSFT just too disorganized with large strategic moves; cash an anchor on ROE.
  • Stock Market Returns Cannot Exceed Intrinsic Value Growth Forever
    Feb. 23, 2014 MKL, WWE 7 Comments
  • Why Margin Debt Matters
    Jan. 31, 2014 DIA, SPY, QQQ 6 Comments
  • Will World Wrestling Entertainment Pin NBC?
    Jan. 13, 2014 WWE 4 Comments
  • 5 Attractive Investments For Today's Difficult Environment
    Editors' Pick • Oct. 31, 2013 BRK.B, EBAY, ESRX 4 Comments
  • Navigating The Federal Reserve's Continuing Intervention
    Aug. 9, 2013 GLD 2 Comments
  • Stagflationary, Muddling, Sideways Economy And Market
    May. 2, 2013 BMC, LXK, WTW Comment!
  • 3 Thoughts On The JPMorgan Trading Fiasco
    May. 13, 2012 JPM 4 Comments
  • Continuing To 'High-Grade' Our Portfolio And 3 Short-Term, High-Yield Debt Securities
    May. 10, 2012 SPY, AMTG, WU 1 Comment
  • With Power Prices At A Multi-Year Low, We're Looking At Exelon Corporation
    Mar. 27, 2012 EXC 16 Comments
  • A Look At 2011's Volatility And A Road Map For 2012
    Feb. 14, 2012 SPY, ACWI, ABT 2 Comments
  • Core Money Market Fund Change
    Nov. 24, 2011 MINT Comment!
  • The Time to Prepare for Today's Volatile Markets Was Long Ago
    Aug. 8, 2011 SPY, DIA, AGG 2 Comments
  • Microsoft Makes for a Great 'Poor' Capital Allocator
    Jun. 9, 2011 MSFT 6 Comments
  • Another Look at Investing in the Proprietary Education Sector
    Mar. 21, 2011 APOL, STRA 1 Comment
  • Claims of the 'Death of Stock Picking' Are a Good Sign for Value Investors
    Oct. 20, 2010 SPY 1 Comment
  • Just One Stock: Head of the For-Profit Class, With High Returns at Low Price
    Jun. 22, 2010 APOL 17 Comments