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eBay: Secular Growth In A Low-Growth World
- The overall economic environment has been and remains weak. Real GDP's four-year CAGR from 2010-2013 is only 2.25%. Retail sales are weak too - growing 2.4% in Q1.
- Yet, ecommerce remains strong - growing 15% in Q1. Even in a stagnant economy there are secular growers.
- EBAY's key metrics are growing even faster than ecommerce. Off-EBAY PayPal usage is accelerating. Merchant Services Total Payment Volume grew 33% y/y in Q2 2014.
- EBAY's shares have been flat for six quarters, but intrinsic value continues to grow.
Some Interesting Buys Despite All-Time Market Highs
- Quarterly letter describing portfolio changes with additional minor comments regarding the macro-economic environment and broad-market valuation.
- New holding: POST. “Outsider” CEO, using ready-to-eat cereal business as platform to rollup higher growth consumer packaged food industries including active nutrition, organic, breakfast protein, and private label.
- Also added PCLN. Dominant player in European hotel booking with significant network effect. World’s largest travel agent, but 4% market share means lots of runway to continue rapid growth.
- Trimmed VRX and WWE. VRX remains a core holding and the subsequent Allergan bid is exciting. WWE’s license renegotiation now mostly reflected in price.
- Closed MSFT position. MSFT just too disorganized with large strategic moves; cash an anchor on ROE.
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- Stagflationary, Muddling, Sideways Economy And Market
- 3 Thoughts On The JPMorgan Trading Fiasco
- Continuing To 'High-Grade' Our Portfolio And 3 Short-Term, High-Yield Debt Securities
- With Power Prices At A Multi-Year Low, We're Looking At Exelon Corporation
- A Look At 2011's Volatility And A Road Map For 2012
- Core Money Market Fund Change
- The Time to Prepare for Today's Volatile Markets Was Long Ago
- Microsoft Makes for a Great 'Poor' Capital Allocator
- Another Look at Investing in the Proprietary Education Sector
- Claims of the 'Death of Stock Picking' Are a Good Sign for Value Investors
- Just One Stock: Head of the For-Profit Class, With High Returns at Low Price