'Opportunity Strategy' - 6 Months Of Trading Rationale And Analysis
- Review our table demonstrating significant breadth of 2014 annual returns among major asset classes.
- US Treasuries remain the best portfolio hedge against slowing growth and deflation.
- Drop in oil price and appreciation of Swiss Franc - Could global central banks be attempting to create stability at levels where markets say it does not exist?
- Read further for our rationale and analysis of 2nd Half 2014 trades in ENB, LUK, UPL, COG, AAPL, BRK.B, POST, VWO, BAX, BRG, CNVR, AAL, EXC, LH, NOV and DNOW.
eBay: Secular Growth In A Low-Growth World
- The overall economic environment has been and remains weak. Real GDP's four-year CAGR from 2010-2013 is only 2.25%. Retail sales are weak too - growing 2.4% in Q1.
- Yet, ecommerce remains strong - growing 15% in Q1. Even in a stagnant economy there are secular growers.
- EBAY's key metrics are growing even faster than ecommerce. Off-EBAY PayPal usage is accelerating. Merchant Services Total Payment Volume grew 33% y/y in Q2 2014.
- EBAY's shares have been flat for six quarters, but intrinsic value continues to grow.
Some Interesting Buys Despite All-Time Market Highs
- Quarterly letter describing portfolio changes with additional minor comments regarding the macro-economic environment and broad-market valuation.
- New holding: POST. “Outsider” CEO, using ready-to-eat cereal business as platform to rollup higher growth consumer packaged food industries including active nutrition, organic, breakfast protein, and private label.
- Also added PCLN. Dominant player in European hotel booking with significant network effect. World’s largest travel agent, but 4% market share means lots of runway to continue rapid growth.
- Trimmed VRX and WWE. VRX remains a core holding and the subsequent Allergan bid is exciting. WWE’s license renegotiation now mostly reflected in price.
- Closed MSFT position. MSFT just too disorganized with large strategic moves; cash an anchor on ROE.
- Stock Market Returns Cannot Exceed Intrinsic Value Growth Forever
- Why Margin Debt Matters
- Will World Wrestling Entertainment Pin NBC?
- 5 Attractive Investments For Today's Difficult Environment
- Navigating The Federal Reserve's Continuing Intervention
- Stagflationary, Muddling, Sideways Economy And Market
- 3 Thoughts On The JPMorgan Trading Fiasco
- Continuing To 'High-Grade' Our Portfolio And 3 Short-Term, High-Yield Debt Securities
- With Power Prices At A Multi-Year Low, We're Looking At Exelon Corporation
- A Look At 2011's Volatility And A Road Map For 2012
- Core Money Market Fund Change
- The Time to Prepare for Today's Volatile Markets Was Long Ago
- Microsoft Makes for a Great 'Poor' Capital Allocator
- Another Look at Investing in the Proprietary Education Sector
- Claims of the 'Death of Stock Picking' Are a Good Sign for Value Investors
- Just One Stock: Head of the For-Profit Class, With High Returns at Low Price