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Gunther Karger  

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  • Ceragon Hidden Gold At A Bargain Stock Price [View article]
    The financial report for Q4 and year was basically inline with our expectations. The cleanout of tghe balance sheet including writedowns of inventory, goodwill and Venezuela's assets was a positive step to start the new year (2015) on a fresh basis going forward. The breach of a lending covenant triggered by the goodwill writedown although not a good thing was nevertheless not a suprise as the equity had fallen not only from writediowns but the stock price itself. However, given the revenue base neafr $100.qtr and the perospect of positive cash flow by Q2, I am confident this will be taken care of in the short term. I look for significant announcements of new business through the Barcelons convention next week.
    Feb 24, 2015. 09:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Lucara Diamond Earnings And A Special Dividend [View article]
    Hi Benisha,
    To your question on risk of stock going below @1.00 again which I believe is very low. When the stock finally rose above and held on high volume, it came out of its black hole with people coming back into the stock believing they have seen its low and now see "daylight" instead of a "bottomless black hole". A second factor is that as the stock saw the trend reversal above $1.00, people stopped selling out of fear of delisting as now, there is low concern about noncompliance (stock below $1.00). Third factor is that the stock now appears to react to positive news unlike when it was in a downtrend and especially below $1.00, few were buying regardless of good news. Now, we wait for the qtr financial release Feb 24 and confirmation of corporate financial improved trend.
    Feb 19, 2015. 01:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ceragon Hidden Gold At A Bargain Stock Price [View article]
    Stocks over recent years have increased their movements more toward expectations than trailing results. Moreover, we face threshold drivers in CRNT those being $2 and $3 representing margin equity reserve creation and sudden buying power as well as threshold index fund buying as the stock crosses market cap thresholds set by those funds and portfolio managers. I believe these factors added to the expectation of improved efforts by company to get better visibility will be more significant than trailing performance improvement, so long as revenues ramp up crossing the profitability threshold when promised in Q2. I didn't set a time limit to reach $4 but believe a two year horizon is feasible so long as there aren't major negative hickups along the way.
    Feb 18, 2015. 05:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • AMD: Why A Buyout Doesn't Really Make Sense [View article]
    This is mostly jibberish.
    AMD appears to have "washed out" in the mid 2's, spiked to $3.30 and retrenched to the $3.00 level where it appears to be holding for the next move in the reversal. $3 is an important threshold because there it regained margin equity value.
    Feb 9, 2015. 06:28 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ceragon Networks - Microwave Backhaul Provider Faces Limits On Growth [View article]
    I believe there is continuing exponential bahdwidth requritements growth focused miore on developing areas including under served areas in developed nations. However, this tempered by technological advances offering increased 'traffic" per spectrum allocated and channel bandwidth. I believe the sector has just gone through another major upgrade renddering legacy systems obsolete which is a principal reason for the sector consolidation and lack of profitability. I also see the remaining viable companies which have completed its tech upgrade and have sufficiently strong balance sheets poised for a cycle seeing revenue growth with positive cash fliows. The recognition of this may be delayed by a confluence of timing re end of year tax selling, end of month/year managed fund window dressing and some continued short "plays". A major factor is the loss of marginability pof the sector making the buying and holding of these securities more costly and in some inctances impractical all of which adds to selling pressures and reduced buying ability.
    Just a comment.
    Nov 27, 2014. 09:06 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Ceragon Networks - Microwave Backhaul Provider Faces Limits On Growth [View article]
    I don't recall calling anyone a "liar" hereon and would like to know where "this" comes from.
    Nov 26, 2014. 08:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ceragon Networks - Microwave Backhaul Provider Faces Limits On Growth [View article]
    I didn't say "extreme growth and that this growth will bring enormous profitability."
    You obviously are on the "short" side on this. Time will tell who is right unless the short bear raid on this stock wins.
    Nov 17, 2014. 08:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ceragon Networks - Microwave Backhaul Provider Faces Limits On Growth [View article]
    For every comment posted, you find a negative to support your initial view. This freminds me of former President George Bush who kept looking for reasons to invade Iraq changing from regime change to looking for weapons of mass destructionand while puring in a trillion of tax dolalrs, found no WMD and yes, he did get rid of hussein but replaced him with chaos and a strong Iran. This is an example of what happens when one looks to find justification for pre-conceived beliefs.
    Nov 16, 2014. 10:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ceragon Networks - Microwave Backhaul Provider Faces Limits On Growth [View article]
    As I said..the focus remains on tnhe negative rather than a balanced perspective. It's easy to find negatives in the sector and companies therein. What continues to be missing is the longer term view. While the data accelerates worldwide, it accelerates even more in developing and under developed regions and, the acceleration is at a rate in the wireless, backhaul and transmission and this appl9ies to service providers as well as vertical markets. Two more recent factors contriobuting to this is the availability of new technologies to mobility devices and the added security provided by wireless against sabotage and terrorism vs fixed delivery vi copper, fiber etc. The sector is suffering from the re-equopment tgransition over the past three years reflecting higher costs coniciding with a depressed demand due to economic factors coupoled with financially weak companies with some even with weak management. This has been dragging down the entire sector while providing a short profit opportunity for traders and analysts feeding into short schemes. Adding to these pressures have been etchnical factgors such as loss of marginability due to sub $3 per share prices with some even being delisted and failing to report financials (Aviat). None of this has helped the sector. However, I see the sector problem rapidly resolving with the sector possibly becoming a stellar performer within one year.
    I should disclose that I am familar with this sector being an electrical engineer focused on communicaitons, having published an investgment letter for 20 years(no longer) and author of books such as "Thieves on Wall Street". See
    Nov 15, 2014. 10:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ceragon Networks - Microwave Backhaul Provider Faces Limits On Growth [View article]
    You apparently have made an indepth analysis but seem also to have focused on finding negatives to support the premise that the sector is a loser over the past three years. However, you missed to point out that this sector has undergone a massive upgrade cycle in technology resulting in the transition from legacy products to next generation far more efficient and market appropriate products. You also have focused primarily on sales to service providers which typically are more price sensitive due to intense service competitive factors and said not one words about the higher margin vertical markets such as public safety where mobility is rapidly gaining on fixed transmission. Finally, backhaul and especially small cell network fill-in and service area extensions has entered a massive data usage explosion with the growth focused extended in developing markets leading to a world of communications anywhere, anytime irrelevant whether fixed or mobile due to the mobile devises feature expansion.

    It appears though that you have accurately cited Ceragon as the best in the sector as others such as Aviat seem to have serious management problems and now, more recently, unable to close financial books and now in listing noncompliance for failing to issue financial reports even delayed its annual meeting for failing to produce the 10K.

    It also appears that the sector has entered the inflection point where the next technology products will increasingly be deployed (service operators and vertical markets) over several years driven also by improved economic conditions. You further failed to identify public safety/homeland security increasing demands for more efficient communications driven by escalating anti terrorist and special forces type of needs which represent emerging and very long term military strategies.
    Gunther Karger
    Nov 13, 2014. 03:14 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Ceragon Networks claws back some losses after pricing public offering [View news story]
    The timing and execution could have been far better but adding $31 million cash to the already $40 mil brings cash to about $70 mil which is respectable and good to have going forward in case acquisition opportunities arise. The dilution of 14 million shares isn't a big deal ebcause the added shares diolution is offset by the balancde sheet increase. A much better explanation would have been good and the news od the offering should have been timed with a positive news. This was a particular bad time as the short selling fed into tax selling already in process.
    Nov 21, 2013. 12:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilat Satellite Networks Is Another Attractive Opportunity Caused By Sequestration [View article]
    excellent assessment of this underfollowed investment.
    Nov 1, 2013. 05:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Advanced Micro Devices: Caveat Emptor [View article]
    Your analysis appears well reasoned but reach no conclusion as you basically tell the reader "Reach your own conclusion" This is not befitting a professional analyst or financial editor...youi should have an opinion.

    Here is my opinion: Major stocks such as AMD are driven by institutions and professional traders. If the sentiment is negatifve as appears for AMD (HOLD is negative), most of thre selling is done(current trading cycle) meaning that the coming trend is up. Because this stock follows the "herd principle", when the upturn starts, it likely will be sharp and the analysts will again reverse resulting from the trend reverdal driving it up even further..until most of the professionals have bought and need to sell. /thenm, the analysts wuill issue sell/hold uinderperform signals again tumbling this stock. If, during the coming up cycle there is a major positive news from AMD,, we could see a breakout to the $5 plus.
    Oct 31, 2013. 03:10 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Aviat Networks' CEO Discusses F1Q 2014 Results - Earnings Call Transcript [View article]
    Adding to this "bonus" comment,, bonuses should never be paid out of reserves if the company operates at a negative cash flow and has no cash available from operatons.
    Oct 31, 2013. 08:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Aviat Networks' CEO Discusses F1Q 2014 Results - Earnings Call Transcript [View article]
    With share values near historic lows, declining revenues and i creasing losses, why is anyone being paid any bonus? Bonuses should be susoended until a turn aroun d is seen.
    Oct 30, 2013. 10:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment