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Guraaf

 
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  • America's SUV Sales Boom Vs. Tesla's Negative Growth Rate [View article]
    Thanks for the article. You may want to add Mazda CX-5 as another SUV that is doing very well. It was launched in 2013 and has been popular lately.
    Dec 26, 2014. 09:01 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Better Priorities Leading To Better Outcomes For Broadcom [View article]
    Thanks much for the reply. I am surprised to hear about the per-STB tuner content shooting up. I thought that they were earning less per STB every year. High levels of integration are reducing the number of chips used. First they sold a separate tuner, a main SoC with MPEG-2 (BCM7038) and side-car chips for H.264 decoding (BCM7411). Dish/DirecTV used to have $35-50 per box in 2005-2007. Now, each chip is fully integrated and goes for less than $10.

    I am personally a seller at this point (not a short seller, but someone taking profits). I may re-enter only after 2 more quarters where I see what they do after getting out of baseband. I just don't see where they can get the next 20% growth in revenue over next 3 years. And at current margins, they are already richly valued.
    Dec 20, 2014. 06:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Philips Looks To Long-Time Laggard Volcano To Perk Up Its Healthcare Biz [View article]
    Thanks for the article and welcome back. I missed your articles as I find them to be the best in quality, consistently.
    Dec 19, 2014. 07:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Better Priorities Leading To Better Outcomes For Broadcom [View article]
    Thanks for the article. A few comments/questions:

    1. If you think their connectivity business is in danger of slow growth or market share loss to in-house products from Apple/Samsung and from Qualcomm, Intel etc. then why would they ever reach $50 when they are already richly valued?

    2. Any views on their Netlogic acquisition from early 2012? How is that turning out?

    3. Set-top business isn't growing much. There is secular shift away from cable and satellite boxes. Households aren't adding 2, 3, 4 boxes in their homes. They are watching content on multiple platforms that are often some CPU-based device like Tablet, smartphone, smart TV, laptop, desktop etc. There was a big boom of satellite receivers and then DVRs during 2005-2012 but I believe this is really slowing down now.

    4. I didn't quite understand the reference to TI? TI is focusing on analog and mixed signal as well as their own foundry for custom process. Also, TI has a decent research wing while Broadcom doesn't quite. They prefer to execute on well know technologies/standards. TI likes to either innovate on semiconductor process and/or new areas like ADAS for example.

    5. How do you value a company like Broadcom that has always produced non-GAAP results very different from GAAP results? Quarter after quarter there are tens of non-cash charges.
    Dec 19, 2014. 07:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Challengers: 24 Increases Expected By February 28 [View article]
    Thanks a lot for the heads up. I am watching Tessco and Schlumberger. Bought both of them recently.
    Dec 15, 2014. 10:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Growth Investing: How I Derive The Top 40 (Part 3) [View article]
    Mike - do you this for a fact? I thought (assumed?) that BHP dividend is fully franked and hence Australia doesn't withhold tax on it. But obviously I am not sure.
    Dec 13, 2014. 11:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Growth Investing: How I Derive The Top 40 (Part 3) [View article]
    I may be wrong but I think that dividend from BHP is also not taxed as the dividend is "fully-franked".
    Dec 13, 2014. 11:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • National Oilwell Varco: A Thorough Analysis [View article]
    Thanks for your prompt reply. There was a "Pro" article on DNOW a few weeks back. Not sure if you will have access to it or not. It seemed to suggest that there is significant medium to long-term potential.
    Dec 10, 2014. 12:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • National Oilwell Varco: A Thorough Analysis [View article]
    Thanks for the article. I am long NOV for a few years now and have a buy limit order as well hoping to lower my average purchase price.

    How secure are a company's order backlog? Is it easy for an oil company to cancel the contracts or is there significant (any?) penalty. I am trying to understand how to interpret the large backlog - can it vanish in a jiffy if oil continues to trade less than $60 per barrel.

    Also, any views on the DNOW that was spun off from NOV?
    Dec 10, 2014. 10:07 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Is Diamond Offshore Outperforming? [View article]
    Thanks for the article. My average purchase price is more than $50 even after buying more stock at $35...

    DO gives a small regular dividend and a giant special dividend every quarter. I suspect that it will be easier for DO to cut this special dividend as things are getting murkier. It wouldn't surprise me if the special dividend is eliminated all-together leaving a yield of less than 1.7%. I have a limit buy order at $29 in an attempt to catch a falling knife that could otherwise hurt the toes.
    Dec 10, 2014. 10:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: 7 Down Days And Counting [View article]
    How did this qualify as an article?
    Dec 8, 2014. 09:03 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Optimism On Restaurants, Retail And Airlines Based On Lower Crude Makes No Sense [View article]
    Thanks for the article, Paulo. Do you have any views on how one could benefit from the current oil prices that may go up in the near future? I bought some oil related stocks last week - Seadrill, Ensco, National-Oilwell Varco and am trying to figure out more.

    I personally agree with you that the benefits of lower oil will not move the needle much for these restaurant and retail industries. I also think that the saving at the pump is perhaps $20-50 per month for most people. I don't think that people balance their monthly expenditure to this last $10 and will go order an extra dessert or go out for an extra meal to use the saving at the pump.
    Dec 7, 2014. 08:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Present Market Behavior Reminds Me Of The Past [View article]
    Paulo,
    Thanks for the article. Something to think about for sure...

    You write: "Then, too, a similar effect took place. Small-caps started underperforming at the tail end of 2007, and then the underperformance lasted until late 2009, when it suddenly reversed"

    Did you mean to say 1997 and 1999?
    Dec 7, 2014. 08:38 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Reasons I Prefer Dividend Growth Investing [View article]
    Thanks Doug. Much appreciated. I did add a little bit of Ensco and Seadrill last week. Obviously, these stocks are worthy of much debate and perhaps I was a bit too rash. Time will tell.

    I looked at MMM, JNJ and LMT quite a bit but found them quite expensive. I will look at your suggestions. Best wishes!
    Dec 6, 2014. 10:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Reasons I Prefer Dividend Growth Investing [View article]
    Thanks David and others for a great article and discussion. I recently got some bonus and have money to invest. I am looking for dividend growth stocks that are at decent valuations and attractive yields.

    Any suggestions for further investigation? Thanks again!
    Dec 6, 2014. 07:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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