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Guraaf  

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  • Amazon: Beyond The P/E Ratio [View article]
    @surplus,
    I use a regular American Express card and get 1% cash back anyways. So I personally don't see a point of their exec membership. e.g., in your case, the numbers would be:

    $39.63 of cashback per year. So effective membership = $70.37 more than their basic membership.

    Think about the American Express Blue Cash or Preferred cash
    Oct 17, 2014. 06:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Collapses: Time To Buy? [View article]
    @all on board - so do you have Netflix? If yes, then please drop it and encourage your friends to do the same.
    Oct 17, 2014. 06:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Collapses: Time To Buy? [View article]
    @trdr2012 - not quite. I dropped Netflix because they don't quite offer a service good for me. I don't watch much TV and prefer movies. But Netflix didn't have any movies that I wanted to watch.

    It may still have been OK if the price was $5-6 to catch 2-3 movies a month.
    Oct 17, 2014. 06:31 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Qualcomm's Timely Acquisition [View article]
    Which small semi company gets acquired next? Some audio company like Dialog or perhaps BT like Nordic Semi? Any ideas?
    Oct 16, 2014. 09:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix: Bruised But Not Scared [View article]
    No mention of $9 billion content obligation? How do they pay if the subscriber growth continues to slow down? Free cash flow is now negative and will keep diverging from net profit.

    If this isn't enough to be scared then what is?
    Oct 16, 2014. 09:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon: Beyond The P/E Ratio [View article]
    I am not sure how and why the author used the figure of 30% to reduce the costs? Why not reduce the fulfillment costs and technology costs by 50% and marketing costs by 80% to come up with the final profit number? The taxation too could be lowered. They can move some operations overseas and may writeoff goodwill in some dot.com companies they acquired etc.

    EPS would be more and PE less than 15. woo hoo!!
    Oct 16, 2014. 09:07 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon: Beyond The P/E Ratio [View article]
    This may be longest comment that Gary ever wrote :)
    Oct 16, 2014. 09:03 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Collapses: Time To Buy? [View article]
    Well, the EPS is also too good. Free cash flow is negative while they should positive earnings. That is a huge warning sign as the free cash flow is declining rapidly. The content obligation costs are increasing rapidly.

    Some big guy will be all over this and short the heck out of it. The product may be good (streaming service for $8-10 per month) but the stock is unreasonable right now.
    Oct 16, 2014. 08:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Subscriber Growth Slows, Investors See Red [View article]
    Free cash flow is so low that it is funny the stock trades more than $50. There is no path seen towards growing free cash flow. The off balance content obligation costs keep increasing. I wonder who thinks the stock is worth buying at this level?
    Oct 16, 2014. 08:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Netflix Q3 '14 Earnings [View article]
    Fully agreed that Netflix is a sell. Huge off balance sheet liability and no path to reasonable valuation.
    Oct 16, 2014. 08:51 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix 2014 Outlook Update After Predicting Accurately Twice [View article]
    The expectations were not only analysts. If I remember correctly (no link, just vague memory), Netflix had expected more subscribers themselves. And they failed. Reed Hastings had some video interview linked from Yahoo where he was doing a song-dance show last night explaining why the growth didn't come.

    Subscriber growth slow means the rate is slowing. In any case, no point splitting hairs right now.

    Current obligations are not on original new series. They are due to bidding war between Amazon and Netflix on old content. And the rights to acquire foreign language programming for their International expansion. Nothing to do with Orange is new Black, House of Cards, Adam Sandler etc. At all. Those are still in hundreds of millions of dollars. The rest is all billions of dollars.

    Huge off-balance sheet liability that will really be bad if international growth slows down a little.
    Oct 16, 2014. 09:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix: Key Points The Bears Miss [View article]
    Thanks Amit. This helps.

    I too am looking forward to Netflix being less than $200 :) My portfolio is far too diversified leading to sub-optimal returns, i.e., tracks S&P 500 over the last 5-6 years that I have been in the market. I am hoping to control the number.
    Oct 16, 2014. 09:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Roth Conversion Odyssey (Part 1) [View article]
    Yes, as far as I understand. I did that. I earn more than the limits so contributed post-tax to Traditional IRA, i.e., no tax benefit but then was immediately able to convert to Roth IRA. Now I have $5500 in Roth IRA that will grow tax-free!! I have done that for last 3 years now in my wife's and my name.
    Oct 15, 2014. 09:57 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix blames subscriber miss on price hike, defends international spend [View news story]
    I dropped my Netflix account. Kids whined for a week but then forgot about it. There really isn't anything to watch there. I have HBO Go via an AT&T internet plan (U-verse) that is as good as free for us.
    Oct 15, 2014. 09:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix blames subscriber miss on price hike, defends international spend [View news story]
    Cash flow will trail EPS. And yet the stock is more than $300. EPS for a full year will not even reach $4. Why should one give them a P/E of more than 20 when content obligation costs are $9 billion right now?

    This stock should be less than $100. Where are the likes of David Einhorn? Isn't there a killing to be made here with the current volatility and out-of-favor momentum stocks?
    Oct 15, 2014. 09:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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