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  • Plug Power Shares Have Great Long-Term Potential, But Are Vulnerable In The Short Term [View article]
    This news, released today at 7 AM, via all newswires. What you are referring to was only on the Energy Dept. site and not well disseminated. Kudos to you for having dug that up.
    http://bit.ly/1ddeuW5
    Jan 7 01:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Plug Power Shares Have Great Long-Term Potential, But Are Vulnerable In The Short Term [View article]
    Thanks.
    Jan 7 01:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Plug Power Shares Have Great Long-Term Potential, But Are Vulnerable In The Short Term [View article]
    Hi SmokeyNYY,

    We have moved on. There are other fish in the sea, over 5,200+ U.S. traded stocks alone. But good luck, this could be in for a multi-year run, possibly.

    Best,

    GuruFundPicks, LLC
    Jan 7 01:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Plug Power Shares Have Great Long-Term Potential, But Are Vulnerable In The Short Term [View article]
    Honestly? I don't think so.

    Our article was bullish on PLUG from a long-term perspective. Quoting from the article, "PLUG is at the beginning of a strong ramp-up, the proverbial hockey stick in revenue growth going forward" and then we clarified that even more in our comments about our bullishness on PLUG.

    We work with probabilities, and the probability was still low at the time that PLUG would continue riding up the way it did. As we said before, "stocks can pretty much do anything in the short-term." In the case of PLUG, the story worked out good in the short-term for holders, but there was no way to predict when they would release the next bit of good news. And if they hadn't, PLUG would most likely have pulled back like we predicted in the short-term, based on our study and observation of 1000's of such rallies.

    The fact that they released more good news, today, was improbable, and could in no way have been predicted, without inside knowledge, and we are definitely not in the business of making predictions like that, for there is no rational way you can make that prediction. Long-term, we did believe in the stock, so its ride up confirms our thesis of the value of PLUG shares.

    With market-timing, you win some and lose some. Our batting average has been far above average, as you can learn that by just going to our website, and looking at the trade alerts sent to subscribers of our Alpha News Edge trade alerts service - average 18% gain, with average holding period of about two weeks. That's excellent, by any measure.

    To longs that made money off of holding the stock, I congratulate you and wish you well, but don't get too comfortable that your prediction was right in holding it, unless you were willing to hold it for the real long-term, even if it went through another 30%+ correction like it has many times before. And in that case, I salute you.

    Rather, the truth, rationally, is that you lucked out (and that's a good thing) in this case. Rationally, our strategy of taking gains - in our case, we bought the prior day at $1.95 and sold the next day at almost $2.60, is in our opinion a far better strategy, when replicated over many trades.

    We planned on holding it long-term as well, and we have many holdings that have been in our portfolio for months, but the quick appreciation from $1.95 made us want to take the gains off the table.

    Best,

    GuruFundPicks.com
    Jan 7 12:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Plug Power Shares Have Great Long-Term Potential, But Are Vulnerable In The Short Term [View article]
    Hi thotdoc:

    Just to add and clarify, we don't necessarily try to time the markets. We started out with the intention of holding it intermediate- to long-term, but the sharp rally convinced us to take it off the table for now, to try to capture the gains, and minimize the downside risk (our entry, including for our 'Alpha News Edge' trade alert subscribers, was at $1.95).

    Best,

    GuruFundPicks.com
    Jan 4 02:51 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Plug Power Shares Have Great Long-Term Potential, But Are Vulnerable In The Short Term [View article]
    Hi thotdoc:

    Good comments, and your approach sounds rational, esp. if you cannot devote the time & energy to track it closely, as most can't. And more power to you if you also have the emotional wherewithal to hold it through any serious dips, as very often follows such massive spikes.

    I suspect though that a good number buying into the spike may not hold out for the potential long-term gains if it takes a really serious dip, i.e., you bought in the $2.70's, say, and it dips to the $2.00-$2.25 range, a possible, maybe even probable, scenario, but one that could leave one questioning their confidence in the position in the light of massive losses. A good remedy to that is to diversify your portfolio, so that you take a 3% to 5% stake in any one stock, but again many traders or short-term investors(?) fail to diversify as much.

    Best,

    GuruFundPicks.com
    Jan 4 02:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Plug Power Shares Have Great Long-Term Potential, But Are Vulnerable In The Short Term [View article]
    Hi Everyone:

    Thanks everyone for all your comments, including the negative ones. Investing is a tough game, and we all have our biases based on our positions, and the author cannot be completely immune from that, although we think we are and try our best to achieve that standard.

    That being said, a couple of points. While stating the obvious, if you have read the article, you can easily surmise that we are bullish on Plug Power. That's the whole thesis behind the article, and we are looking to get back in, if Mr. Market lets us, at prices where we believe that the downside risk is minimized - which in our case, means a target price south of $2.25, maybe as low as even $2 on a quick technical dip lower.

    While stocks can pretty much do anything in the short-term, if you study past spikes, as we have, most do not end well for people getting in late in the game, at least in the short-term. In the case of PLUG, shares were at 12 cents about a year ago, and they gave gone almost straight-up from 45 cents just less than months ago, and the recent rally lifted shares 83% low-to-high in the past two days (from $1.55 close on Tuesday to $2.84 intra-day high on Friday).

    That, to put it mildly, is not a sustainable pace. And it is highly probably based on a study of similar past spikes, even in companies that went on to go up many 1,000%'s in the years ahead, to correct in the short-term, often severely. One possible explanation is that it is due to the short-term focus of many traders that feel comfortable buying after massive spikes; for many rational investors, usually sharp spikes like this signal downside risk and they stay away.

    A little background also is relevant here. When we wrote the article as submitted to Seeking Alpha originally on Thursday, it said, "Plug Power Still has x% More Upside Despite Its Massive Run", but with the price spike late in the day on Thursday and then by mid-day Friday, we sold the position, as also signaling an exit for subscribers of our 'Alpha News Edge' trade alert service (see GuruFundPicks.com for more info).

    The position was originally intended for the intermediate to long-term, as indicated to our subscribers, but we were getting very nervous about the short-term downside risk, i.e., giving back most of the gains by mid-day Friday. Since Seeking Alpha still hadn't gotten around to processing the article, it is then that we pulled the original article and title and revised it to the present one, as given our revised position and our short-term outlook, the original title would have been a disservice to our readers, especially if prices reversed as we had suspected they would.

    Of course you can still make your own interpretations based on the above, as many surely will, and that's okay. We are all entitled to our opinions. But just to reiterate, we strongly believe in the long-term outlook for PLUG, as stated many times in the article. We believe it is likely that we are at the beginning of a long-term proverbial 'hockey stick' kind of rise in revenues, and ultimately earnings, based on not just its current markets, but potentially much larger new markets, as outlined in the article. However, we are concerned about the short-term downside risk, and such price spikes can correct as swiftly and deeply to the downside once shares start to fall - and despite one's belief in the long-term, sometimes many investors find it difficult to hold a stock through massive short-term losses. It is with that concern that we highlighted the short-term risk in the article.

    I welcome any disagreements, but it would be more helpful if they were constructive and focused, after thoroughly reading the article. And private messages are also welcome. Usually we always respond to them, provided they are constructive.

    Best,

    GuruFundPicks.com
    Jan 4 02:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Immunocellular Shares Are Set For A Rebound [View article]
    Greetings everyone,

    IMUC is already trading above $1 before end-of-year, like we predicted in the article.

    For those interested, we offer our 'Alpha News Edge' trade alerts service on our website, http://bit.ly/WsoJwv, where you can get our latest ideas, like IMUC and many others, including buy and sell signal alerts. Please check out our trades and performance results of our system on our website if you are interested.

    Best,

    GuruFundPicks.com
    Dec 23 07:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Buy Ariad Pharmaceuticals Shares At These Levels [View article]
    will_da_man and fredmertz85,

    Thank you both for trying to bring some rationality to the debate, but sometimes that is a hopeless cause with 'emotionally charged' biotech investing.

    And fredmertz85, you are right on, the article does not say sell, as many seem to have interpreted. It just highlights the assumption you may be implicitly making when you hold it or buy it here - that maybe your belief is high that Iclusig will be able to address the larger patient population. This does not appear to be supported by the data, however that can change, as things often do in biotech, and then it would become a more attractive investment. And again your opinion based on your position may be different than mine.
    Dec 23 10:22 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Patient, Provider, Insurer, And Government Interests Aligned For 100% Upside On Rockwell Medical [View article]
    Hi Jon Jegglie,

    We haven't looked at KERX closely. From what I recollect, their Zerenex drug phase 3 study focuses on serum phosphorus in CKD patients on dialysis, so similar patient focus, but different end-point. However, they do have an earlier phase 2 study that focuses on both serum phosphorus and iron deficiency in CKD patients on dialysis.

    Best,

    GuruFundPicks.com
    Nov 16 08:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Organovo: Love The Technology, Like The Company, But Wait To Buy The Stock [View article]
    Hi IVEGOTTHENUTS,

    Yes, you are right, overall ownership by Inst. stands right now actually at almost 8%.

    The <3% ownership as we clearly stated in our article was by our hand-picked top 300+ Wall St. Funds.

    From our testing, the overall ownership by all Inst. has little correlation with price performance going fwd., rather it is the ownership by top funds, the top 300+ Wall St. funds that we have hand-picked (including 79 Guru, 27 Mega, 141 Sector - incl. 25 in biotech, 57 Billionaire, 54 New Masters & 40 Tiger funds) that is a better predictor of price performance going fwd. For example, these funds were heavily selling AAPL before the turn in late-Summer'12. You can see many more examples of that here,
    http://bit.ly/1dDdUxH

    Second, as you can see, the number has changed since you may have last seen it, as stragglers come in after the end of the filing period deadline of 11/14/13, and the last ones get cataloged. So, wait for a few days before the final numbers are in.

    For ownership by top Wall St. funds for ONVO, and 5,300+ other U.S. traded stocks, and top industry picks by our 300+ top Wall St. funds, please visit us at http://bit.ly/WsoJwv.

    Best,

    GuruFundPicks.com
    Nov 16 08:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Organovo: Love The Technology, Like The Company, But Wait To Buy The Stock [View article]
    Hi Prohost:

    Thanks for the compliment.

    I agree, we live in a wonderful age, with innovations in healthcare & technology, from companies like ONVO, maybe, that continue to drive our progress forward.

    FYI, I have read and learnt a lot from your articles on biotech stocks on SA.

    Best,

    GuruFundPicks.com
    Nov 15 10:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Patient, Provider, Insurer, And Government Interests Aligned For 100% Upside On Rockwell Medical [View article]
    Hi Terry,

    Thanks for the compliment. I agree, while RMTI may at some point consolidate its recent gains, it is a long-term story that is bound to play out going fwd. as the company reports improving quarterly numbers, first with the commercial impact of Calcitriol next year, and then the potential commercial impact of Triferic in FY 2015.

    Best,

    GuruFundPicks.com
    Nov 15 04:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Organovo: Love The Technology, Like The Company, But Wait To Buy The Stock [View article]
    Hi nearmiss:

    I will second what you said here. You can definitely invest with "play money" even at these elevated levels, knowing very well that you are betting on a lottery here - you could win big or lose your shirt.

    And that may happen, even if it does ultimately make a multi-fold huge move over the next decade or two, for not too many people would be able to hold it all through that volatility, and for the long-term.

    Best,

    GuruFundPicks.com
    Nov 15 03:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Patient, Provider, Insurer, And Government Interests Aligned For 100% Upside On Rockwell Medical [View article]
    Hi ceristeare,
    Thanks for the compliment.
    Nov 15 02:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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