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  • Patient, Provider, Insurer, And Government Interests Aligned For 100% Upside On Rockwell Medical [View article]
    Hi JAC92651,
    Thanks for the compliment.
    Nov 15, 2013. 10:09 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Strengthen Your Portfolio With U.S. Silica: Potential Double In 12-18 Months [View article]
    Hi CaladesiKid2,

    Thanks for your compliments. Yes, the share price is unusually strong given the supply coming in from the Golden Gate sale. We did buy SLCA Monday morning, given the strength, but doubt if it can break out to new highs in the current rally without first testing recent lows in the $30-$31 range.
    Nov 13, 2013. 10:24 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Strengthen Your Portfolio With U.S. Silica: Potential Double In 12-18 Months [View article]
    Hi Value Inv,
    you are welcome!
    Nov 12, 2013. 01:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Oxford Resource Partners Offers Multi-Bagger Potential Despite Its Problems [View article]
    Sure, it is. Link to Yahoo! Finance Profile, http://yhoo.it/1dGHNQt
    Sep 4, 2013. 11:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Perfect Trifecta For Thompson Creek [View article]
    Hi Bob:

    Thanks for your comment. I believe you have strong opinions about this stock, maybe even pre-conceived, that is being reflected in your comments. Based on the market action, it seems that the vast majority of investors have a different opinion than yours. Again, I encourage you to write-up a counter thesis on this stock, if you are that interested. I think that may be a lot more productive, and frankly interesting as well.

    GuruFundPicks
    Aug 16, 2013. 05:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Perfect Trifecta For Thompson Creek [View article]
    Hi suzuka312:

    Thank you for your positive comments. I agree, the potential is huge in TC over the next couple of years, and even more so if commodity prices rise back towards their highs.

    GuruFundPicks
    Aug 13, 2013. 12:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Perfect Trifecta For Thompson Creek [View article]
    Hi Illuminati Investments:

    Thank you for your positive comments. Yes, the book value may be a bit overstated based on the current commodity prices, but with a current discount of about 50%-60%, I suspect that even a revised book number would be well above current market prices. Also, commodity prices are volatile, and I am comfortable basing it on the latest company numbers. Regardless, what you mention is a useful caveat to the P/B discussion in the article.

    GuruFundPicks
    Aug 13, 2013. 12:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Perfect Trifecta For Thompson Creek [View article]
    Hi Bob:

    First off, pit wall movement has been highlighted as a downside risk in the article. Second, the $280 million annual cash cost for the first six years is from the Co's August presentation, and per them it includes "operating costs, refining/ smelting costs and transportation." Third, although these "little details" (as you say it) are implicity addressed in the $280 million number from TC, which is our best estimate as Mt. Milligan is not currently operational, you are welcome to address labor issues in Northern BC, and postulate on how exactly they get their ore to market, etc., in another article. I believe this article sufficiently addresses the underlying investment issues, based on the information available.

    Thanks,

    GuruFundPicks
    Aug 13, 2013. 12:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Perfect Trifecta For Thompson Creek [View article]
    Vince,

    I am not sure what you mean by 2.75xFY15 revenues of nearly $900 million does not equal $3 billion. Of course, it doesn't - but I didn't say that anywhere in the article.

    The $3 billion is based on the market-cap, debt and cash levels when TC was trading near its highs in 2007-08, and as the article states, this is a rough, back-of-the-handkerchief calculation for Method 1; the other two methods present alternative ways of approaching valuation. If you take the market-cap in 2007-08, at over $2.7 billion, add the debt in the $250-$400 million range, and back out the cash levels then in the $100 million range, you will see that the EV is around $3 billion. Using that for current conditions, you would do the reverse, take out the debt and add the cash, to get target market-cap in $2 billion range for FY 2015. Actually, that number is a bit conservative as I was rounding off, it would actually be well over $2.2 billion. And it could be even higher, if you consider that Mt. Milligan would have had well over a year of generating cash flow by then, adding to TC's cash position, that we have not included in the above calculation.

    Additionally, the 171 million shares outstanding number is the same as used in the GAAP numbers reported by the company. You can adjust it for the tMeds, which would be fine, but the conclusion would still be same, that TC is significantly undervalued. The baseline scenario target would adjust down from $7.22 to $5.56 in that case, still well above current prices. Regarding revenue assumptions, these are very well explained in the article, under DCF. Also, I am not sure what your problem is with using EV/Sales as a rough calculation in comparing 2008 and 2013. EV actually adjusts for the change in capital structure between 2008 and 2013/15, in contrast to say market-cap.

    Regarding cash costs from operations at Mt. Milligan, we used the latest numbers from the Q2 presentation ($280 million) as presented in the assumptions for the DCF analysis, along with other assumptions on pricing as discussed in the three scenarios for DCF analysis. Also, I will point out that for the pessimistic scenario, we have assumed long-term Molybdenum prices to be in the $9.75 range.

    Thanks.

    GuruFundPicks
    Aug 12, 2013. 07:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Oxford Resource Partners Offers Multi-Bagger Potential Despite Its Problems [View article]
    Hi Eriatilos:

    Thanks for your compliment.
    Aug 5, 2013. 01:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Top Small-Cap Biotech Stocks Being Accumulated By Large Fund Managers [View article]
    New Q1/2013 data was only available after this article was published, in Mid-May, so that was the most recent data available, as Institutions are required to file the prior quarter 45 days after the end-of-quarter
    Aug 1, 2013. 03:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oxford Resource Partners Offers Multi-Bagger Potential Despite Its Problems [View article]
    Hi Erdal Y:

    You are welcome
    Aug 1, 2013. 02:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oxford Resource Partners Offers Multi-Bagger Potential Despite Its Problems [View article]
    Understood. Thanks for your comments.
    Aug 1, 2013. 10:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oxford Resource Partners Offers Multi-Bagger Potential Despite Its Problems [View article]
    Hi sprstirl:

    You are welcome.
    Aug 1, 2013. 06:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oxford Resource Partners Offers Multi-Bagger Potential Despite Its Problems [View article]
    Hi Philip:

    Thanks for pointing out the typo in the WACC table. The 6% is the current market rate of return (most sources, including NBER, we found converge in the 5%-6% range, so we are being conservative here from a valuation standpoint), so the WACC based on the assumptions in the table is correct.

    On your second and following points, the repayment of debt would completely remove the bankruptcy risk, even three to four years from now, when the maturity level of the newly financed credit facilities would otherwise have come up. This would also translate to higher operating flexibility for management, in line with what you point out as well in terms of the stranglehold the debt holders currently have on what the company can and cannot do. Generally, increasing debt offers value to equity holders up to a point (due to tax benefits), but beyond a certain point, the value to equity holders is decreased (due to agency costs and default risk). I think in the case of OXF, applying this in reverse, the company definitely has debt high enough to have decreased value to equity holders, so yes conceivably, reducing debt by issuing equity could increase the value to equity holders. Looking at it another way, we looked at the unlevered betas of peer coal MLPs, AHGP, ARLP and NRP, which are all in the 0.4 range. Applying that to OXF would give us a levered beta of 1.47, only slightly higher than the beta based on OXF's units volatility. This would still give us a healthy discount to fair value for all three scenarios.

    I hope that helps.

    Thanks for your comments.

    GuruFundPicks
    Jul 31, 2013. 10:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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