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Guy Ausmus  

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  • My Top Auto Components Stocks For 2015 [View article]
    Nice analysis, but you seem to have excluded a few names at step 1 and step 6 without justification. For example, Gentherm in step 6. If you are eliminating a name, say why please.
    Jan 6, 2015. 07:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Insider Sales Brief: Palo Alto Networks [View article]
    Yes, they are selling. What do you expect? The PANW receive stock as part of their comp; the stock is appreciated, and their portfolio's get VERY unbalanced. I should know - about 1/3 of my net worth is stock granted by my former employer. When you have a big winner, and you are in with size, take some$ off the table.
    Dec 31, 2014. 10:04 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Sciences: Buy On The Drop? [View article]
    It strikes me that ESRX is creating the perfect class action suit - with ESRX as the defendant. Any patient with a failed treatment, any patient with severe side effects will be contacted, the class certified, and it's off to the races. ESRX a will eventually have to defend their decision while under oath, and subject to discovery. ESRX a has smart leaders; they are certainly aware of this. For their sake, I hope they correctly assess the $ they are likely to pay out
    Dec 24, 2014. 10:15 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gentherm Inc.: One Of The Few Undervalued Stocks In Today's Market [View article]
    The only other negative I can think of is a bearish view of automotive unit sales. THRM will clearly gain "share" (heated vs. unheated) seats, etc. as time goes on. This is a new "must have feature akin to automotive air conditioning. Don't know if you've built this into your modeling of the firm, but would appreciate it if you do in later SA articles. Agree in your overall directional assessment, long THRM a.
    Dec 18, 2014. 01:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Never Thought I'd Say This About Airline Stocks [View article]
    LUV and ALK typically pop out of the mix when I run my weekly screens. Both are nice trending channel trades. Right now (11/14) LUV is at the top of the channel, looking soft, so out for now, but will rejoin the fun in a few weeks, I suspect. Nice review of the major players in this space.
    Nov 15, 2014. 12:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Downside Of Falling Oil Prices [View article]
    Seriously long LUV and luvin' it!
    Nov 9, 2014. 10:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Downside Of Falling Oil Prices [View article]
    Bret: To me, the parallels with the oil markets of 1987-1989 are instructive. Believe this to be far less political/geopolitical and far more a simple defense of market share (by the Saudis).

    Do they wanna see shale oil development reduced? Sure. Bakken and Eagle Ford compete directly with Saudi Light crudes. They are clearly signaling to the market - stop!!! Stop drilling!!! They want to see unemployed petroleum engineers in Williston, ND, Houston, etc.

    The rest of it, I dunno. On balance cheaper crude is a positive for the U.S. Akin to a big tax cut.

    Folks see plots, cabals, and hidden motives all over the place. Whatever happened to plain old vanilla "running your competitors out of business"?
    Nov 9, 2014. 10:36 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • America's Disinflationary Future? [View article]
    Addictions are tough to kick Jake. "Pain now, prosperity later" solutions don't fit in the contemporary political construct (if they ever have).

    John Mauldin has written extensively about the effects you note. Worth a read for those interested in this investment theme.
    Oct 23, 2014. 08:33 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Just Happened: NiSource Analyst Day [View article]
    So, riddle me this. If I own NI today, what do I hold when it's all over and done with? I believe that it will be 1 NI share, 1 Columbia General Partner share, and 1 MLP Unit. But...the post split MLP equity raise causes me to question that.
    Oct 2, 2014. 05:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Shell CEO Takes Out The Trash [View article]
    Shell has always had a "p*ss away the $" reputation in the upstream business. I'm worked for a firm that had non-operated interest in a Shell operated well. Costs were 3x other similar wells in the area. A microcosm, to be sure, but it points to a culture lacking thrift and husbandry of the shareholders assets. I wish the new CEO well, but suggest he focus less on divestment and more on creating a culture of cost control. Nice work as always Ray, but I much prefer the smaller, hungrier names in the oil patch. Shell and Exxon are more of an oil indexed bond, IMHO
    Aug 15, 2014. 09:51 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reacting To Earnings Reports: Let's Get Real! [View article]
    A thoughtful, "Buffetesque" article. Sound methods. Well done.
    Aug 10, 2014. 07:49 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas Services Group: A Solid Compressor Rental Business And Positive Catalysts For 2H 2014 [View article]
    Michael, your story is intriguing, and I can't fault your logic. I think the previous post has it right. I created a chart that compared NGS against the S&P (VFINX) and the Nasdaq (QQQ). A bit of outperformance, but with attendant idiosyncratic risk. I really like these midstream plays, but the proof of the pudding is in the eating. If they aren't outperforming the S&P by much, why do it?
    Jun 4, 2014. 11:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stay Short, My Friends [View article]
    FB's user base must start to flatten, heck, there's only so many people on the planet, and they have 1.28 Billion (!) Monthly Active Users in March, 2014. So I'll concede that point. BUT - to that I will add that Revenue = Monthly Active Users x Average Revenue per User. The Rev = MAU x ARPU is true for all of these internet social companies. FB's sales will largely be driven by ARPU in the future. There is a cross sectional analysis of MAU and ARPU for Facebook, Yahoo, Google, and Twitter somewhere on Seeking Alpha, and my recollection of that analysis is that FB has a ton of growth potential in ARPU, given the ARPU of the more mature names. If I find it, I'll post the link. Is FB pricey? Sure it is. Is there room for revenue growth? Absolutely. Regardless of views, I really enjoy that SA has this forum to test ideas and hear from folks that see things differently.
    May 13, 2014. 09:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stay Short, My Friends [View article]
    Curious on how see sales growth as flattening. The YOY % change in sales has increased every quarter since mid-2012. EPS growth was the best ever last quarter - up 183% YOY.

    Can't be this way forever of course, but the numbers show no flattening right now.
    May 12, 2014. 08:48 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Star Gas Partners: MLP Yields 5.2% And Has 20% Upside Potential [View article]
    Nice job. A Buffet company- simple, well understood, price is right, a ham sandwich could run it. Not to say that's the status of management - they are on the ball. But it's so simple... Love it!
    Apr 27, 2014. 06:40 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment