Comments on Guy Lerner's articles RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.com/author/guy-lerner/articles http://seekingalpha.com/article/116163-gold-relative-performance-vs-currencies?source=feed#comment-365320 365320 Sun, 25 Jan 2009 02:30:05 -0500
For gold, these perceptions have recently been (and will likely continues to be) rather volatile. That's the short term reality, but, longer term there are good reasons for gold to appreciate.

At this point, I would wait for a significant correction before buying gold. I would also consider getting into some other commodities that appear to be more undervalued than gold.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/116163-gold-relative-performance-vs-currencies?source=feed#comment-365019 365019 Sat, 24 Jan 2009 13:08:03 -0500
People in the USA are paying off debt and saving more for an uncertain future. Gold is not an item that most will be able to afford. The higher it goes, the more likely those that already have it, will sell it.

The poor are getting poorer, salaries go toward housing, food and debt repayment. Those on fixed incomes Will not jump into Gold because it Does Not even pay 1% and they remember when Gold did the exact same thing back in 1981-82.

You are preaching to the choir but the Choir is broke and not does not have Faith in the future.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/116163-gold-relative-performance-vs-currencies?source=feed#comment-364790 364790 Sat, 24 Jan 2009 02:57:02 -0500
There aren't that many assets except for gold that survived the 08 meltdown untouched and that's probably why it has gained the attention of the quick minded people this early in 09. Once oil and food prices bounce back up (and you can bet that the wall street analysts will be caught sleeping again!), people will flock out of their 1% deposit accounts for a currency like gold.

Will you then be the 'herd' of general public that queues up to buy $2000/oz gold?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/116163-gold-relative-performance-vs-currencies?source=feed#comment-364761 364761 Sat, 24 Jan 2009 00:48:09 -0500
Mark
www.planbeconomics.com.../
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/116163-gold-relative-performance-vs-currencies?source=feed#comment-364606 364606 Fri, 23 Jan 2009 18:14:21 -0500
We even still have our 8 place silver settings.

What do you think about diamonds, etc.?


]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/116163-gold-relative-performance-vs-currencies?source=feed#comment-364446 364446 Fri, 23 Jan 2009 15:07:03 -0500
I see physical gold as a very long term investment. If an investor is loking to make a quick profit from gold, then they should buy ETF's or futures. Physical gold is not very easy to sell at a "fair" price.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/116163-gold-relative-performance-vs-currencies?source=feed#comment-364443 364443 Fri, 23 Jan 2009 15:03:56 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/116163-gold-relative-performance-vs-currencies?source=feed#comment-364412 364412 Fri, 23 Jan 2009 14:39:42 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/116163-gold-relative-performance-vs-currencies?source=feed#comment-364358 364358 Fri, 23 Jan 2009 13:48:28 -0500
You can thank Goldfinger Geithner for Gold's rally.

"China is manipulating its currency."

Not a good thing to say to a nation with so much in dollar denominated reserves. But the really interesting thing is that the USD should have dropped.

It did not, so why are they rallying in tandem again?

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/116163-gold-relative-performance-vs-currencies?source=feed#comment-364289 364289 Fri, 23 Jan 2009 12:48:11 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/116163-gold-relative-performance-vs-currencies?source=feed#comment-364132 364132 Fri, 23 Jan 2009 11:03:39 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/116163-gold-relative-performance-vs-currencies?source=feed#comment-363990 363990 Fri, 23 Jan 2009 09:22:14 -0500
1 hour after this article was posted, Bloomberg reports that gold has hit 879. I expect it'll hit 900 by month-end, and 960 in February. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/116163-gold-relative-performance-vs-currencies?source=feed#comment-363864 363864 Fri, 23 Jan 2009 08:05:04 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/115042-maybe-the-bond-market-is-right?source=feed#comment-357844 357844 Fri, 16 Jan 2009 13:34:41 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/115042-maybe-the-bond-market-is-right?source=feed#comment-357669 357669 So the author means that Fed is actually fighting against itself. > If the UST yield doesn't move up, the reflation failed. If it does > move up, the Treasury and Fed will have a harder time to refinance > its own debt. So it sucks either way.]]> Fri, 16 Jan 2009 11:34:15 -0500

On Jan 16 05:08 AM User 143167 wrote:

> So the author means that Fed is actually fighting against itself.
> If the UST yield doesn't move up, the reflation failed. If it does
> move up, the Treasury and Fed will have a harder time to refinance
> its own debt. So it sucks either way.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/115042-maybe-the-bond-market-is-right?source=feed#comment-357592 357592 Fri, 16 Jan 2009 10:46:14 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/115042-maybe-the-bond-market-is-right?source=feed#comment-357431 357431 Fri, 16 Jan 2009 09:01:58 -0500
Now couple the above factors with reduced household consumption as debt service becomes unbearable for the average American, thus lower imports from places like China and Japan. This lessens the need for purchase of US treasuries by foreign central banks, as there is less US current account deficit to support. Throw in some trade wrangling, and fcb's may well become net sellers of UST's. The only solution is massive printing of dollars to purchase that debt, which of course is extremely dollar negative.

No matter the economic path from here, fire or ice, US treasury bonds are a very good long term short. Just don't overleverage.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/115042-maybe-the-bond-market-is-right?source=feed#comment-357335 357335 Fri, 16 Jan 2009 07:06:11 -0500
many people are in treasuries for safety not returns...

it's the return of their money!...not a return on their money...

they are not there for the long term...only sheltering from the storm...



]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/115042-maybe-the-bond-market-is-right?source=feed#comment-357313 357313 Fri, 16 Jan 2009 05:22:33 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/115042-maybe-the-bond-market-is-right?source=feed#comment-357307 357307 Fri, 16 Jan 2009 05:08:06 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/115042-maybe-the-bond-market-is-right?source=feed#comment-357303 357303 Fri, 16 Jan 2009 04:49:00 -0500
At the end, you say "...bottoms in yields don't come during economic downturns, and more often than not a bottom in yields will come once the economic expansion is well on its way". I agree with you, the turnaround might be quicker this time. Any indication that the bailout and packages give the intended effect, that we see some signs of economic expansion, will bring about a flight from the treasuries. This might be a rather unique trading opportunity.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/66185-look-to-the-markets-to-assess-inflation?source=feed#comment-120025 120025 Thu, 28 Feb 2008 02:01:13 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/66185-look-to-the-markets-to-assess-inflation?source=feed#comment-120004 120004 Thu, 28 Feb 2008 00:21:01 -0500 ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/66185-look-to-the-markets-to-assess-inflation?source=feed#comment-119626 119626 Wed, 27 Feb 2008 08:12:08 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/66185-look-to-the-markets-to-assess-inflation?source=feed#comment-119593 119593 Wed, 27 Feb 2008 04:03:48 -0500 Maybe you could do the same analysis, but from the perspective of the Euro ? I for one would be most intrigued to the outcome.
Perhaps also add to this the inflationary impact all those extra petrodollars will have - unless GCC/Opec players switch to Euro's or a basket of currencies.
So many options - so little time !!!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/65249-the-7th-best-time-to-buy-stocks-over-the-past-22-years?source=feed#comment-117428 117428 Wed, 20 Feb 2008 13:38:47 -0500