H.J. Huneycutt

Time to Buy China, Copper, the Canadian Dollar and Oil

Also, I think people should consider that you don't have to buy Chinese companies to make a China play. My only issue with investing in China is that there is less openness in their financial reporting there, which means higher risk than you'd like to have as an investor. In that sense, the author's recommendations of the ETFs might be good --- but I just hate investing in ETFs.

Some ways to make a China play without investing in Chinese companies:

ABB Ltd (ABB)
Veolio (VE)
Posco (PKX)
Other steel stocks (X, MT, NUE, RS, etc) --- not sure if all of them have exposure to China, but even if they don't, they might benefit indirectly from increased demand that drives prices back up

... and of course ... Oil! If you believe demand for oil will continue to rise in China, prices will continue to rise.

Time to Buy China, Copper, the Canadian Dollar and Oil

I'm in agreement with the author's investment hypothesis. I'd also add platinum and palladium to the list.

The only area I'd disagree with the author might be how to make the China play. I don't like ETFs. They decay over time. Some companies in China to look at:

Yanzhou Coal (YZC)
LDK Solar (LDK)
KHD Humboldt (KHD)
Aluminum Corp of China (ACH)
Harbin Electric (HRBN)

I haven't examined the financials of all these companies in full, but they all look intriguing. Solar is scary right now, but LDK has a lot of power in the industry; despite a terrible recent performance, they will probably rebound *ASSUMING* solar itself survives.

Are Safe Haven Investments Really Immune From Current Crisis?

DaveW,

I think you're basically right that Mark does not analyze demand side destruction fully and PAL was definitely a bad buy at $5 (I bought in to). However, at $1.20 or so, the company's equity in their assets is significantly greater than the stock price. Plus, they don't actually have much debt so they don't seem to be in any imminent danger of bankruptcy for the moment. If the stock did indeed go up to $6 in 5 years, you would be making a 400% return, or roughly 80% for each year you held onto it.

The Burst Commodities Bubble

I definitely agree. I thought some of the financials looked attractive during the summer (CTBK, STI, MTB, UB) but now that there has been a price correction, I'd keep away from them again. The future won't be nearly as bright as the past.

This whole commodities bubble and subsequent burst has to be one of the most insane things I've ever seen in the market. In a period of roughly 8-10 months, we've seen stocks with 3 to 6-fold increases in prices followed by an almost equally dramatic fall. Yet, there have not been very many dramatic changes in regards to fundamentals.

This market feels more like the market from the 19th Century where boom and bust cycles would hardly be a year apart.