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H. T. Love  

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  • Axion Power Concentrator 393: Mar. 26, 2015 [View instapost]
    I am no longer following the APC as it has degenerated into character assassination of formerly-valued contributors who happened to get it wrong, as if none of us has ever committed such a grievous sin.

    Along with patting ones self on the back as having been right so long ago, I find little of utility and a lot distasteful.

    GL to all.

    I hope APH never starts another issue of this (now) cesspool.

    HardToLove
    Mar 27, 2015. 09:09 AM | 17 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Speculative Play On UQM Beginning 2/7/2015 [View instapost]
    We had good low-volume behavior suggesting our up trend would hold the last two days.

    This mornings economic data which had GDP 2.2 in last revesion to Q4 when 2.4 was expected has the futures for Nasdaq 100 and Composite down ~27%/28%, S&P 500 down 23%-28% and many others down as well.

    If we don't see some volume with an upward bias I feel we need to be alert to a spill-over into UQM - may depend on the "burst basket" trades.

    Yesterday I "supported" the price range while looking out for a possible low-ball close with some buy orders at $1.11 and $1.12 that represented a substantial part of what ended up being our daily volume of 30.3K. Knowing that MMs ASA, ASE, EDGE, ... apparently have "bots" that immediately better bids and offers, my orders resulted in moving the bid to a stable $1.13 (after a somewhat unusual delay from them - low-volume effect?) initially and then it worked up from there.

    I plan to try and get any low-ball shares again with similar bids (price to be determined yet) today as I believe the usual market reactions to short-term "disappointing" news will follow it's usual "short-term memory loss" behavior and next week the market will resume chasing its own tail again.

    Of course, this is all speculation by me and should be heavily salted.

    HardToLove
    P.S. As I typed this S&P 500 has already recovered to pre-report levels (-0.17%). Talk about "short-term"!
    Mar 27, 2015. 08:57 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quickchat #279, March 19, 2015 [View instapost]
    Thx D-Inv! Added it to my watch list and starting DD.

    HardToLove
    Mar 26, 2015. 03:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Speculative Play On UQM Beginning 2/7/2015 [View instapost]
    Good find D Lane!

    Looks like $UQM might have made a really decent move in picking up Roush's business. Doesn't really matter if the energy conversion losses make it a less than optimal method. The over-riding concern with (faux?) "green" that drives customer purchases should provide UQM benefit.

    HardToLove
    Mar 26, 2015. 02:38 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Speculative Play On UQM Beginning 2/7/2015 [View instapost]
    "You are a brilliant guy" LoL!

    Stop ... or at least tell my wife! :-))

    It's only "sweat equity". I wish I was all that bright - my learning curve would be much foreshortened.

    HardToLove
    Mar 26, 2015. 10:32 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Speculative Play On UQM Beginning 2/7/2015 [View instapost]
    Just thinking that this might be useful for looking at choices ...

    Very low volume, as mentioned, at ~47.5K suggests indecision. This while the low sat right on top, AFAICT, of my rising potential support line at $1.13 (allow slack for old eyes and poor drawing skills).

    The early trades ranged from a high of $1.1799 (first trade of the day) for 100 shares and drifted down to $1.1396, 100 shares again, at 12:06 and then $1.13 at 12:58 - 136 shares. and again at 13:27 for 191 shares. after doing some $1.14 trades. Held stable for the next dozen trades or so around $1.15. The the late-day seller that I suspected would appear did so; starting at 15:43 9 trades, 8 at $1.14, for about 19K (including a large block trade of 17.6K) went off.

    Typical low-volume behavior. Notable is that 25 of the 96 trades were "burst basket" trades. These are trades that are part of a basket of stocks executed on one order. I suspect, but don't know, that these sorts of trades are something like an ETF-driven portfolio? If that's what they are the general market behavior today may have had an effect of keeping price low, especially on a very low-volume day?

    This seems somewhat supported by the buy:sell (less reliable on very low-volume days I think) which was ~1:13, based on volume, through 12:06. It improved to 1.08:1 through 15:21 (MMs balancing out intra-day shorts that are an effect of MM "services"?). The late-day seller appeared and ruined the ratio, taking it back to ~1:2.18 with that 17.6K block trade included.

    Overall, no strong suggestion of "what's next" using all this.

    The traditional TA considerations would hold sway here I think: low volume indecision; rising support now has origin and 5 solid occurrences of support; rising 20 and 50-day SMAs; we are just below mid-point of a generally rising and narrowing (just beginning) Bollinger band. The negative is that none of the oscillators I watch are doing anything dramatic: all are weakening (normal as we drop to test support) and most are near neutral readings.

    All told, we are still at a decision point and going long before we bounce is a short-term bet, as is selling.

    On a bit longer time-scale, we will see a "Golden Cross" in the next few weeks as the 50-day SMA will be rising at a slowly rising pace for a little while and the 200-day SMA will continue falling, but at a reducing rate. Any price move higher will shorten the time-frame until the bullish crossing occurs and falling price would lengthen the time.

    My last thought is that we should be seeing a quarterly report in the last week of May or so. Ignoring the likely financials, which I suspect would not yet be affected by what we know are positives, I'm thinking a generally positive tenor and response to the reporting will be seen. If others are of a like mind I think we should see a bullish trend develop leading into the report unless the overall market develops a really nasty trend that has spill-over effects into our little jewel.

    Just a reminder: I maintain a core position and trade some blocks around that. I'm currently trying to add some small trading blocks at current price levels, making a short-term bet that the rising trend support will hold and we'll get a well-defined rising trading channel defined. That potential channel has two possible rising resistances (I don't know which is the "real" one yet as there are insufficient touches): today $1.34 and $1.42 and rising at the same rate as the support, ~$0.0098 (IIRC) per day.

    HTH,
    HardToLove
    Mar 26, 2015. 06:43 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Speculative Play On UQM Beginning 2/7/2015 [View instapost]
    D-Inv: You may be able to get your transaction fee back if you call? They don't like to do it frequently, but ETrade has accommodated me several times over the years when similar happened to me.

    If you use the AoN you are less likely to get filled. It's one of the damned if you do and damned if you don't deals.

    HardToLove
    Mar 25, 2015. 05:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Speculative Play On UQM Beginning 2/7/2015 [View instapost]
    Well, I thought I got mine when I saw a *big* block trade and several smaller $1.14 trades go off, but no joy. That block trades was a "sell" of 17.6K @ $1,14.

    I'm hoping to get another shot tomorrow.

    Did you get yours? GL if so and if I get mine tomorrow I hope I get GL too! :-))

    HardToLove
    Mar 25, 2015. 04:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Speculative Play On UQM Beginning 2/7/2015 [View instapost]
    UQM looks like it will honor the rising support - currently ~$1.13 AFAICT.

    Volume is very low - sellers are not rushing in. Looks like they may be exhausted at this level. Last trade was 13:46 @ $1.16 for 200 shares.

    B/a $1.14 with ~1.4K presented (my bid is hidden AorN) and 400 presented on the offer at $1.15.

    Late in the day should see some sellers give up and hit the bid I think.

    Considering the overall market, this does look like an early good sign.

    xxx <-- fingers crossed.

    HardToLove
    Mar 25, 2015. 01:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 392: Mar. 14, 2015 [View instapost]
    R.A.: I have a .csv file that can be loaded into spreadsheets. But it's not like Level 2. It's like this.
    Exchange Time Tick Indicator Price Size Ln #
    K 15:59:23 A 0.1650 20000 21
    K 15:59:23 B 0.1630 400 22
    Q 15:59:22 A 0.1650 20000 23
    Q 15:59:22 B 0.1610 2000 24
    Q 15:59:22 T 0.1630 1393 25
    Q 15:59:00 T 0.1611 2036 26
    Q 15:59:00 T 0.1611 700 27
    Q 15:59:00 A 0.1630 1300 28
    Q 15:59:00 B 0.1610 2000 29
    K 15:58:48 T 0.1630 4000 30
    Q 15:58:48 A 0.1630 1900 31
    Q 15:58:48 B 0.1610 2000 32
    Q 15:58:47 T 0.1611 300 33
    Q 15:58:34 A 0.1630 5900 34
    Q 15:58:34 B 0.1610 2000 35
    B 15:57:34 A 0.1630 5900 36
    B 15:57:34 B 0.1610 600 37

    The tick indicator is blank though and that column is omitted in this display.

    If you think it will suit your need, just PM me with an e-mail address.

    HardToLove
    Mar 24, 2015. 06:18 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Speculative Play On UQM Beginning 2/7/2015 [View instapost]
    D-Inv: As we share our thoughts, opinions, knowledge and SWAGs, it's only fair that we also share the blame and the glory! ;-))

    Don't forget though that one of the things I'm awaiting is a re-trace to see if the rising support holds. Until then I don't have a "channel", just a rising trend line resistance and support that may or may not be in play.

    Now that we are at EOD, we see a push up to the 200-day SMA and upper Bollinger limit produced a rejection and we finished near the low of the day. The saving grace is that volume was good, but not excessive, so there's no hint of a big *rush* lower.

    Buy:sell was appx 4:3 at 11:49 and deteriorated by EOD to ~4:6. This is not a nasty weakening, but does indicate that the resistance did kick in as folks either took profits or shorted. I wouldn't expect much in the way of shorting here, so I suspect taking profits. That's probably good because, unlike with shorters, there's a near-term possibility that the profit takers get exhausted and if the buyers aren't, up we go.

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    Mar 23, 2015. 06:47 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 392: Mar. 14, 2015 [View instapost]
    Correct me if I'm wrong, but ISTR the filing only stipulates that the Co. must keep going to shareholders and requesting an increase in authorized shares. I don't recall any financial penalties and even if there were, where would the $ come from?

    Again, please correct me if I'm wrong.

    HardToLove
    Mar 23, 2015. 05:18 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quickchat #279, March 19, 2015 [View instapost]
    "the hydrogen economy is the future because of the inexhaustible supply of water"

    Actually it's the inverse ...

    <snark>
    "the hydrogen economy is the future because of the inexhaustible supply of hydrogen and energy to produce water as we drive down the road, run fuel cells, ...".

    </snark>

    HardToLove
    Mar 23, 2015. 01:41 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Speculative Play On UQM Beginning 2/7/2015 [View instapost]
    The new *possible* rising channel I'm looking at has a resistance at $1.40 today. It rises $0.0092/day. The rising support rises at about the same rate and is at ... $1.11xx AFAICT (my drawing skills and eyes are not all that perfect).

    "Breaking above" is determined by the close and a confirmation the next day with another close above.

    Regardless, with today's volume *looking* right now like it will be higher than yesterday and above the 10-day average, this does look like a potentially good close with a potential break up, although I don't see a "channel", just a price point that has acted as resistance in the past.

    PPS is pushing the 200-day SMA today - look for some difficulty in breaking above that. It's also pushing the upper Bollinger - add some more potential difficulty due to that.

    The oscillators I watch are mixed - some showing improvement others not (yet).

    All told, if we do have an upward trend developing I would not be surprised to see a few days more needed for the signs of a *strong* likelihood to develop.

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    Mar 23, 2015. 12:22 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • REE/Strategic Minerals Concentrator, March 18, 2014 [View instapost]
    I agree Motion - they did alright and managed to touch upon the major past issues and current concerns IMO. I especially like that they highlighted that our defense infrastructure is totally dependent on the Chinese and the F-35 should be an eye-opener for anyone with those concerns.

    Like you, would be surprised if any good comes of it though.

    HardToLove
    Mar 23, 2015. 09:01 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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