H. T. Love

We’ve Survived Worse Markets (and Economies) Before – the 1970s

Mr Shaefer,

Excellent discussion of comparative times. However ...

I believe there is one salient point that might alter the outcome, in either time-frame (substantially extending the painful period) or the ultimate results.

Having lived through the same period, but on main street not Wall Street, I also recall many of the things you mention. But with a difference that I believe is significant.

First, yes I fall into the camp of "it was so much better in the old days". But having said that, my /intellectual/ assessment is that there was a much more positive sentiment overall. The presidency still held some respect, the level of despisedness for the congress was not as elevated as now, we still had many industrial industries here that provided jobs here, etc.

Since much of what I mention above is now not true (my opinion), and since the performance of the economy and financial instruments can be so heavily influenced by sentiment, I think this time a "muddle through" will not be the way we'll eventually describe it. I also believe that the "recovery" will be multi-generational whereas the period you describe was one generation (using a 20 year cycle for a generation). I think the long-term outlook is much more desolate than your past experience might indicate.

As one example of a shift that /may/ imply an increased level of difficulty in recovery, let's take an example of a view implied by one Nancy Pelosi.

When asked to site the constitutional authority allowing congress to mandate universal health care, she replied "You're not serious", if I recall. Later her office sent a note to the offending reporter's organization suggesting that only "serious" questions should be offered.

My memory can be double-checked here.

townhall.com/columnist...

"Back in the day", a response such as this would have been political suicide and totally unthinkable, in my opinion. But now this sort of attitude is pervasive I think.

Your thoughts on the effects of this shift (and other concomitant shifts) in attitudes would be most welcome.

Thank you,
HardToLove

Quick Chat #21- 11/23/09

RTK had a nice announcement that gave it the pop.

www.news.com.au/adelai...

It's a deal in Australia with GE to supply RTK services and technology for making clean synthetic transportation fuels for Syngas.

If it acts similarly to last time it had a big announcement, it should see a few days of some intra-day up moves and then settle in to a down trend as it returns to a more normal level.

A difference this time might keep it moving higher longer - delivery of services and technology is slated for Q1 2010, whereas the prior was the LAX biodiesel plant slated to come on-line 2012 - about 2.5-3.5 years out.

Further, the news didn't see as wide a distribution, based on the fact that I didn't see it on any of the news that my E*Trade platform normally delivers (it did appear on SA Market Currents). If the news becomes more widely known in the next day or two, we could see some more pop.

With market as it is right now I would be tempted to take some profits and get back in if it does behave as before. 10 day average volume is 4.6M shares and Friday it traded 36.4M shares. In the prior spike it traded 69.77M, 82.7M, 51.2M, 35.4M, 18.6M, 12.3M, 11.5M and 14.9M shares. Then it dropped to ~6M and back to it's normal volume range.

Prior to the announcement, it showed /early/ signs of entering a trading range of $1.20 to $1.40 or so.

HardToLove

On Nov 25 11:15 AM Freya wrote:

> RTK is on the Move, as is my little "doggie" NATUF, new 52 week high.
>
>
> PNPFF, I'm finally making a profit, on paper.
>
> Don't know what to sell, don't know what to hold, too many things
> to buy.
>
> Markets are near/at a Top when there is nothing to buy.

Quick Chat #21- 11/23/09

Re CROJF: Last trade date I show was 11/12/2009. Also, my platform says it trades on pink sheets, but that what it says for NATUF too.

HardToLove

Quick Chat #21- 11/23/09

I went there but couldn't pick out the article. Any clues? Title, full link, author/blogger or whatnot?

Thanks,
HardToLove


On Nov 25 04:43 PM robert.b.ferguson wrote:

> Hi gang at least those still here. There is an interesting article
> at (www.forbes.com) regarding earnings going forward. It deals
> with the effects current cost cutting measures on future earnings
> and some other factors. Let me know what you folks think. I didn't
> know what to make of it.

Quick Chat #21- 11/23/09

On Nov 25 04:09 PM robert.b.ferguson wrote:

> <snip>
> H.T: Greetings. I tried all three of my screeners and couldn't
> get any information on the stock other than it's last trade was $0.29.
> This one must be a stealth stock.

My platform shows first trade date with this symbol in U.S. 2/18/8.
Trades native on TSX as COP (if I remember - the web site investor tab has it). 10 day average trade volume is only 15K shares. I suspect it trades on "grey sheets" like the NATUF Freya nailed (but good - she's making out like a bandit at the moment) and I found that out too late to get in at a price where I was comfy (missed entry by 14 thousandths of a penny because of the lack of/bad info the first 6 or 7 days).

What I learned, after 7 or 8 days of phone calls to get a customer service rep that actually got the answer, was that grey sheet trades do not have to "represent" (I gather this means they don't have to publish bid/ask like stuff we're used to. The market maker can, and one or more did for NATUF apparently, but it is not mandatory.

I've heard other terms like "pink sheets", but don't know the implications of those yet.

With such low volume (average 15K/day) I think charts aren't much help.

That's all I can offer right now - still trying to catch up on so many other things right now.

HardToLove

Quick Chat #21- 11/23/09

CROJF: Coro Mining

Full news article and more details at

www.coromining.com/s/N...

"... initiated a 1,000m reverse circulation drilling program at its 100% owned Chacay porphyry copper property, located 12km southeast of Teck Resources Limited's Relincho copper project, and 50km east of the city of Vallenar in the III Region of Chile."

HardToLove

Quick Chat #21- 11/23/09

Happy Thanksgiving to all and special mention and prayers for:
Maya and and his Mom
David and "Guns"

Here's hoping everything is good and getting better all the time!

Enjoy the days!

HardToLove

Current Swine Flu News Concentrator (November 13 - xx Part 4)

Thx - I had not seen that (or maybe didn't remember?) that NVAX used insect cells.

HardToLove

On Nov 25 11:34 AM User 283977 wrote:

> <snip>
> However, NVAX does indeed use caterpillar cells.... here is some
> more information on the issue....
>
><snip>
> Novavax uses an insect cell-culture approach, growing its VLPs in
> a line of identical "immortalized" cells taken 20 years ago from
> a caterpillar called a fall armyworm. The armyworm cells are injected
> with a recombinant baculovirus - a virus that only infects insects--that
> is tweaked to resemble a targeted flu virus. The cell responds by
> producing and secreting VLPs that have a shell identical to that
> of the flu virus but contain no flu RNA. The process is performed
> in disposable, ready-to-use equipment.
> www.technologyreview.c.../
>
> Medicago looks like a promising company, but I suggest great caution
> with respect to buying their stock due to their exchange listing.

Quick Chat #21- 11/23/09

CPST: One of my targeted investments for next year, I'm building a position. I wouldn't buy right here, except for trading around a core to build it up. But I thought you all might be interested.

EDIT 11:09 EST
A nice compendium of release available here
globenewswire.com/news.../

use the search with CPST and you can do some Q&D research right there.
END EDIT

Co. has made great strides over the years and is improving in so many ways.

Anyway, here's most of the release.

HardToLove
... announced today that it has received notice of grant awards by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and Israel's Binational Industrial Research and Development (BIRD) Foundation to participate in two separate clean energy product development projects valued in excess of $3 million.

and more from the release (omitted usual company blather about "we are pleased ...")

Capstone Flexible Fuel Microturbine

The grant award from the U.S. Department of Energy is to develop a more fuel flexible microturbine capable of operating on a wider variety of biofuels -- mostly from biomass feedstock (agricultural crop waste), which when gasified becomes synthesis gas or syngas. Syngas has been identified by many offices of the DOE as a new "opportunity fuel" for future clean energy projects.

The two year project will total almost $3.8 million, with the DOE supporting the project with $2.5 million which includes the support of Argonne National Laboratory. Capstone is the prime contractor for this project and will rely on support from Argonne National Laboratory, University of California at Irvine, and Packer Engineering, Inc.

"We see increasing interest from customers with a need for an ultra clean generation product like our microturbine to convert biomass into electricity. Farm and industrial biomass wastes can be converted into a useable fuel using a variety of processes. Gasification is one such process, and this project provides the basis for Capstone to design a special fuel delivery system to handle these hydrogen rich synthesis gases," said Jim Crouse, Executive VP of Sales and Marketing.

The project will focus on both the development of a clean syngas combustion system for the Capstone microturbine and a demonstration phase of this new microturbine using the fuel output of a farm waste gasifier being developed by Packer Engineering under a separate U.S. Department of Agriculture grant. Argonne National Laboratory will characterize the output of the Packer gasifier for a variety of feed stocks and will host the demonstration phase of the microturbine and gasifier system. The University of California at Irvine and Argonne will assist Capstone in the development and testing of the fuel delivery system for the microturbine. Capstone will provide the design and production expertise for the new fuel delivery system and will manufacture the new syngas microturbine product for sale to the general market. The initial focus is on Capstone's C65 microturbine with integral heat recovery to achieve high overall efficiency as well as low emissions.

"The DOE was supportive of our C200 product and CARB certification of our C65 product operating on natural gas. Success on this project will allow Capstone to offer a new range of biofuels, which will help the nation meet its objectives for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, dependence on foreign energy sources, and criteria pollutants," added Jamison.

Initial estimates show that a microturbine with an efficient gasifier using non-food crop residue as the fuel could supply a 600 acre farm with 65kW of power. There are 1.7 million such farms in the U.S., making this a sizeable market opportunity. Potential societal benefits from a 10-year installed base of such a microturbine and gasifier system are reduction in fossil fuel consumption of 441 trillion BTU/year (or the amount of fuel consumed by 6.1 million cars) as well as reduction in CO2 emissions of 31 million tons/year (or the amount released annually by 5.4 million cars).

Microturbine Powered Solar Concentrator System

In a milestone of U.S. - Israeli cooperation on clean energy technology development the U.S. Department of Energy and Binational Industrial Research and Development (BIRD) Foundation Energy Executive Committee have selected a product development effort by Capstone Turbine and Israel's HelioFocus Ltd. The award of up to $800,000 is to further the development and commercialize a microturbine to produce electric power from concentrated solar energy.

HelioFocus has previously developed a proprietary solar receiver to convert concentrated solar energy into super heated air. That super heated air will be used to drive a specially-designed externally fired C65 Capstone microturbine to produce efficient solar power. The system will be designed with the option to use natural gas to provide continuous power to supplement the solar energy when it is not available.

"The ability for solar projects to generate energy more efficiently and at night is the value proposition driving this joint product development effort between HelioFocus and Capstone," said Darren Jamison, Capstone President and CEO. "Efficiency is extremely important in solar power systems as a means to reduce size, space, and ultimately drive down installation costs," added Jamison.

"There is a strong demand for viable solar power that is already ahead of what can practically be delivered today using existing solar technologies. The objective of the program is to achieve a high efficiency modular dish system that can be quickly and cost-effectively deployed for large scale projects," said Jim Crouse, Executive VP of Sales and Marketing at Capstone. "We have already demonstrated excellent durability and reliability of our microturbines, and our UL listed power electronics allow simple interconnection with utility grids. This is a natural extension into the renewable energy space," added Crouse.

The BIRD Energy Foundation is supported by funding from both the U.S. and Israeli governments with the mission to encourage cooperation between Israeli and American companies. They award grants in the form of risk-free loans that are to be repaid in the event that the products become commercial. Both HelioFocus in Israel and Capstone in the U.S. have been working together toward integrating their technologies to achieve a concentrated solar power system with high net efficiency.

Both of these awards are subject to completion and execution of contracts and sub-contracts with the various parties involved in carrying out the product development programs. Failure to complete these agreements could preclude Capstone from participating in one or both awards.

Current Swine Flu News Concentrator (November 13 - xx Part 4)

INCY: Incyte Corp. has entered a collaboration and license agreement with Swiss drug maker Novartis AG (NVS) for two of its investigational hematology-oncology therapies.

Incyte shares climbed 15% premarket to $8.90. The stock had doubled this year through Tuesday.

Novartis will pay Incyte up to $1.1 billion over time if milestones for the deal, which involves the development of therapies that treat myelofibrosis and "multiple cancers" are met. Novartis will pay Incyte $150 million up front plus an immediate $60 million "milestone payment" for a phase 3 European trial of the myelofibrosis therapy that began in July.

Under the agreement, Incyte will hold exclusive rights for the development and potential commercialization of the myelofibrosis therapy, and Novartis will have responsibility for its future development and commercialization in all hematology-oncology instances outside the U.S.

Novartis also will be responsible for the worldwide development of the cancer treatment.

Novartis in October said its third-quarter profit was flat, but it upped its sales outlook for the full year as income from new products offset softening growth in its flagship drugs Diovan and Gleevec. Delaware-based Incyte hasn't been profitable as its drugs are still in development.

As usual, just found, no DD yet. Thoughts?

HardToLove

Quick Chat #21- 11/23/09

I meant to say "95% of ideas you all post ...".

HardToLove


On Nov 24 06:09 PM H. T. Love wrote:

><snip>
> 3) 95% of all the good ideas you post I end up missing because I
> can't now do my DD or I get a "round tuit" and see I've really missed
> the opportunity (based on the way I use charts in conjunction with
> ideas).
><snip>

UNG: Effects of Contango In One Short "Snapshot"

Full response to this put in the new chat. Comment is here.

seekingalpha.com/insta...

HardToLove


On Nov 19 01:50 PM optionsgirl wrote:

> new infrastructure build out approved:
> blogs.chron.com/newswa...;utm_medium=feed&a...
>
>
> HTL- would you consider starting an insta as a repository for gas
> stories?
> I'm thinking we are in the range where it still can fall another
> $1.00, but after that, up.

Quick Chat #21- 11/23/09

OG asked, in this comment, seekingalpha.com/user/...

if I might consider a "Gas Concentrator". Ignoring all the obvious ribald jokes this brings to mind ...

OG et al - I would really love to do that. I can think of no better way to "repay" all for what I'm continuing to learn.

For now I must decline. Here's why.

1) I can't keep up now and I'm afraid it would be a slipshod job.
2) Three weeks in a row I end up at the weekend reading news from SA three to four days old.
3) 95% of all the good ideas you post I end up missing because I can't now do my DD or I get a "round tuit" and see I've really missed the opportunity (based on the way I use charts in conjunction with ideas).
4) I suspect this is because I'm still so new that I have no experience to aid me. I have to research and investigate even the most rudimentary things still, especially anything that involves so many intangibles, like trying to assess "sentiment" indicated in the charts.

All of the above is why you see me become scarce around here after the weekends recently. I'm still trying to catch up /and/ work what I have active in my trades already.

I will not forget the request and will /look/ for my earliest opportunity to undertake the effort.

I hope you all understand.

One other note for OG: I would still not be jumping into NG yet. In a comment on October 11 here

seekingalpha.com/artic...

I predicted that at end of drawdown season we would still have 1.77 Tcf in storage with no new rigs added. Two Fridays ago (11/7 ?), on CNBC Bertha Coombs (sp?) indicated that traders in the pits were expecting the season to end at 1.8 Tcf.

This causes too immediate thoughts: I'm supported by folks who know the area and I must be wrong because we're all on the same side of that prediction. I just can't figure why it took them so much extra time to reach the same conclusion I reached.

Anyway, although rigs counts are dropping again, recent articles are discussing the reduced industrial use I mentioned in my comment. So it seems that this is not only a "JobLOSS recovery", but also a "we don't make nuthin' here no mo'" recovery.

Although contango out through May has reduced substantially, I think we'll need to see the normal January winter weather spike come in strong (or maybe December if weather kicks in - looking a little iffy right now) to give us a good entry point.

HardToLove

Current Swine Flu News Concentrator (November 13 - xx Part 4)

I don't think so. Today, 11/24, the expected support at $3.20 seems to be in effect. The day ended with a chart pattern of a "hammer", which indicates that attempts to initially crush the price was met by buyers stepping up. Can't declare a reversal yet, but it is a potential good sign. Since I think the price drive down was a big over-reaction to a 6% (if I recall correctly) dilution, I'm glad to see this response. It was very low volume, so we can't read too much into it yet.

RSI and stochastic currently oversold, MFI /very/ near but moved up a bit. The only real concern for me is the Accum/Distribution is still very negative. I /guess/ that may be a residual of the 9/1 spike in price and volume.

If NVAX starts up, we can expect pauses, and possible inflection points, at $3.40, $3.60, $3.80. If we see price increasing towards and through those levels on volume increasing I think it bodes well.

HardToLove

P.S. I've not forgotten about the "Energy Concentrator" - I'll reply to that shortly in that chat.

On Nov 23 02:03 PM optionsgirl wrote:

> CVM insider selling:
> www.thestreet.com/stor...;cm_ven=EMAIL_mdb_html
>
>
> I bought NVAX at $3.00. Crazy huh?

Current Swine Flu News Concentrator (November 13 - xx Part 4)

Not NVAX - I don't recall anything in my research indicating they use any biological-based medium for their process. That doesn't mena they don't, just they don't mention anything like that.

Following your links a little further takes us here

www.reuters.com/articl...

where we see the company and product are Protein Sciences Corp FluBlok vaccine.

NVAX dropped just because of the new share issue I think. Price was an over-reaction in my opinion.

HardToLove


On Nov 22 11:24 AM User 283977 wrote:

> (November 19) FDA Rejects New Type Of Flu Vaccine
> An FDA federal advisory committee narrowly rejected a new type of
> influenza vaccine made in insect cells, requesting additional safety
> data before moving forward, Reuters reports.
> www.medicalnewstoday.c...
>
> This must be NVAX. No surprise here, NVAX has not even started clinical
> trials in the US. The primary investment play for NVAX is Mexico
> and India, particularly India where NVAX's partner is already building
> a new manufacturing facility for their VLP approach.