Seeking Alpha

H. T. Love

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  • Axion Power Concentrator 324: Apr. 17 '14: Q4 & EOY 2013 Results & CC; CFO Resigns; David DiGiacinto Joins BoD; PV With Storage Financials; Petersen Worksheet Suggests PIPE Effects Nearing End [View instapost]
    04/17/2014: EOD stuff partially copied from blog (up now).
    # Trds: 102, MinTrSz: 1000, MaxTrSz: 129400, Vol: 917461, AvTrSz: 8995
    Min. Pr: 0.1301, Max Pr: 0.1480, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1344
    # Buys, Shares: 60 488216, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1378
    # Sells, Shares: 40 353945, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1367
    # Unkn, Shares: 2 52300, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.1448
    Buy:Sell 1.38:1 (53.21% "buys"), DlyShts 370716 (40.41%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 104.74%

    The average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 80% today is $0.1029 vs. $0.1012, $0.0996, $0.0979, $0.0954, $0.0929, $0.0904, $0.0884, $0.0865 and $0.0848 on prior days. 80% of today's VWAP is $0.1075 vs. $0.1100, $0.1154, $0.1313, $0.1351, $0.1425, $0.1485, $0.1397, $0.1468 and $0.1505 on prior days. These are potential prices for the next tranche of shares to the PIPErs.

    Interesting that the “ average of the lowest 20 VWAPs ...” and “ 80% of today's VWAP is ...” are going in opposite directions. May not matter if PIPErs really are about paid off.

    Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 0.08%, -4.52%, -2.30%, -33.46% and -39.10% respectively. Price spread today was 13.76% vs. 19.23%, 21.48%, 7.97%, 14.31%, 8.57% 5.71%, 9.40%, 7.78% and 11.30% on prior days.

    The high of the day was one trade, midday, of 1K shares for $0.1480. The next high was also 1K at $0.1470, also midday. Nothing suspicious about them, but ... There was a single trade at the open that set the day's low – 1K @ $0.1301. The next lowest was $0.1306 for 10K. Again, I suspect nothing foul about these, but ...

    The larger trades (>= 15K) occurred on only 10 of the 102 trades, 9.80%. These 373,330 shares were 40.69% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1381. 5 of these trades, ...

    The other 92 trades, 90.20% of the day's trades, traded 544,131 shares, 59.31% of the days volume. The VWAP was $0.1373. 55 trades, ...

    AS John suggested, the 200-day SMA appears to be providing support, now for the second consecutive day. Unfortunately, that average is going to continue to drop ... Wednesday we closed below the 50-day SMA, $0.1422, and also had a VWAP of $0.1375 below it, after having traded above it Tuesday when the 50-day SMA was $0.142, when the close was $0.145 and the VWAP was $0.1442 ...

    Contrary to yesterday, when we had a constant price weakening throughout the day, we had strengthening throughout the day, seen in the trading breakdown by time. I suspect this was due to ARCA playing a different game today, described below. In a nutshell, the other aggressive players on the sell side were afforded some relief by ARCA's behavior and they were able to hold the offers higher longer than when ARCA is doing it's normal stuff ...

    The difference today, I realized, was that rather than battling the other sellers tit-for-tat and driving offers almost inexorably lower, or popping in and out frequently having the same effect, ARCA was doing a hit-and-run and wait operation. They were more patient today, allowing offers to rise higher before they hit again. Then they would retreat and wait again.

    I think this is why we didn't see the late-day weakness. The buyers were uncertain about the coming price action and willing to “pay up” JIC. And the sellers realized they could be actually raising offers with some success. This was aided by the fact that NITE and ATDF were somewhat less aggressive than usual.

    ... Our buy percentage showed a small improvement to 53.2% while VWAP weakened for the sixth consecutive day to $0.1344. If there's still PIPEr shares being dispensed, they were likely at a cost of $0.08xx and substantial profit is still available on them for a long way down yet.

    What I suggested two days ago still applies I think - regardless of technical items, we've got some more movement down in our near-term future. The traditional TA stuff doesn't yet contradict this.

    Our low broke the string of four consecutive lower lows with a 1/100th penny improvement today. We have the fifth consecutive day of lower highs, six straight lower for VWAPs. Our close was higher. Volume was lower on a lower VWAP, offering hope that the trend lower may approaching it's end.

    An interesting, but maybe useless, note is that when the day's high of $0.148 was hit on an aggregate 472K shares, the buy percentage at that point was 76.78%, 361,945 shares. From that point forward, on aggregate volume of ~445K shares, the buys were only ~126.3K, 28.35%. This does give a good insight into what happens as price rises in our current environment. We have a different kind of “late-day weakness”.

    The high today, a single 1K trade at that price, approached, but did not touch, what was formerly a support at $0.15 ...

    The usual in the blog here.
    http://seekingalpha.co...

    HardToLove
    Apr 18 06:45 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #270, April 2, 2014 [View instapost]
    D.G.: Depressing. I'm tempted to click the who's hiring button in an attempt to offset the depression. But I'm afraid that would further depress me either via reduced openings or few folks qualifying.

    Oh well.

    HardToLove
    Apr 18 12:54 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 324: Apr. 17 '14: Q4 & EOY 2013 Results & CC; CFO Resigns; David DiGiacinto Joins BoD; PV With Storage Financials; Petersen Worksheet Suggests PIPE Effects Nearing End [View instapost]
    iindelco: great find. I really like "Over 2,000 charge-discharge cycles at 100 percent DOD have been demonstrated".

    Since the more normal operation would be partial charges and discharges, I wonder how much longer it can *really* go.

    HardToLove
    Apr 18 09:10 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 324: Apr. 17 '14: Q4 & EOY 2013 Results & CC; CFO Resigns; David DiGiacinto Joins BoD; PV With Storage Financials; Petersen Worksheet Suggests PIPE Effects Nearing End [View instapost]
    Wtb: I suspect it's because (CPST) doens't make those things. It does only the micro-turbines and is used in conjunction with many different combination of those things, as engineered by the project managers.

    For micro-turbines, IIRC, Capstone has something like 83% of the market.

    I'm suspecting they follow the "do one thing and do it well" mantra now, after some early missteps, IMO.

    HardToLove
    Apr 18 08:58 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 324: Apr. 17 '14: Q4 & EOY 2013 Results & CC; CFO Resigns; David DiGiacinto Joins BoD; PV With Storage Financials; Petersen Worksheet Suggests PIPE Effects Nearing End [View instapost]
    Jpau: LoL! Good one. Started my day with a laugh.

    HardToLove
    Apr 18 08:51 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #270, April 2, 2014 [View instapost]
    I miss my 8-track player.

    HardToLove
    Apr 17 03:42 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 324: Apr. 17 '14: Q4 & EOY 2013 Results & CC; CFO Resigns; David DiGiacinto Joins BoD; PV With Storage Financials; Petersen Worksheet Suggests PIPE Effects Nearing End [View instapost]
    And it really was an abyss compared to the $0.0001 spread we've seen battled over in the past many times, including recently.

    That 1/100th spread can be the worst - often *extended* periods where both sides are apparently in a hopium-induced coma as there's no Winken, Blinken or Nod observed.

    HardToLove
    Apr 17 01:31 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 324: Apr. 17 '14: Q4 & EOY 2013 Results & CC; CFO Resigns; David DiGiacinto Joins BoD; PV With Storage Financials; Petersen Worksheet Suggests PIPE Effects Nearing End [View instapost]
    Maya: Just had a hawk plow into my window. Looked out and we was healthy but dazed. We cut down a tree there last year and a few bids have mistaken the reflection for a landing area.

    I think I'll transplant a cedar over there to protect them.

    Last night heard a very plaintive sound - a lone goose that had lost the flock zoomed by in a high-speed low-level pass honking for his fellows.

    HardToLove
    Apr 17 11:48 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #270, April 2, 2014 [View instapost]
    LT NVAX currently shown +$0.0899. +1.98%. ... Now $4.13. High $4.21 so far.

    HardToLove
    Apr 17 11:08 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 324: Apr. 17 '14: Q4 & EOY 2013 Results & CC; CFO Resigns; David DiGiacinto Joins BoD; PV With Storage Financials; Petersen Worksheet Suggests PIPE Effects Nearing End [View instapost]
    Maya: Short week too.

    This is a Friday equivalent.

    NITE is (now was) on both sides dominating with a 1/10th spread.

    ARCA's in on the offer, so it'll get a little busier.

    EDIT: Should have said ARCA moved - they've been there all morning at $0.249.

    HardToLove
    Apr 17 10:48 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 324: Apr. 17 '14: Q4 & EOY 2013 Results & CC; CFO Resigns; David DiGiacinto Joins BoD; PV With Storage Financials; Petersen Worksheet Suggests PIPE Effects Nearing End [View instapost]
    Edmund: There's a possibility the *secondary bump to $0.20 on 4/3 was partly fueled by the "golden cross", which occurred that same day, if we have any momo and/or TA traders/investors participating.

    The volume took a big bump up 4/1 and again 4/3.

    We just don't know.

    HardToLove
    Apr 17 10:46 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • REE/Strategic Minerals Concentrator, March 18, 2014 [View instapost]
    (OTCPK:LYSCF): Pre-market 500K @ $0.1757 traded. Based on last evening's ASX, reasonable price range.

    B/a at the time was $0.17/$0.175, so classified as a "buy".

    HardToLove
    Apr 17 09:29 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 324: Apr. 17 '14: Q4 & EOY 2013 Results & CC; CFO Resigns; David DiGiacinto Joins BoD; PV With Storage Financials; Petersen Worksheet Suggests PIPE Effects Nearing End [View instapost]
    Raleigh: No way to know,but I'm suspecting that *some* hesitation in moving up will be seen as the long-time holders that were underwater for so long decide that discretion is the better part of valor for a *portion* of their holdings. Their mindset might be in the "we've seen this movie before" and want to either cut some loses or take some profits.

    If a substantial portion act in this way it could offset any groundswell, to some degree, of new participants trying to buy.

    We might also find ourselves trapped in some macro view of the space at the time. If it's not really positive, the groundswell might not be all that enthusiastic.

    Generally I'm thinking, again, that a grind up (which I do like) could be the most likely result after an initial blip.

    As JP has highlighted, the scars of being whipped for so long will take time to disappear.

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    Apr 17 09:22 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #270, April 2, 2014 [View instapost]
    (OTCQB:AXIH) "AXION Pre-Announces Strong Revenue Growth for First Quarter 2014"

    "... expects revenues for the first quarter of 2014 to be $4.9 million, a 182% increase over the same period in 2013. First quarter revenues equate to nearly 75% of AXION's 2013 full year revenues. The Company's Engineered Products and Reprocessing Division each contributed approximately 50% of total revenues."

    "... stated on our last call, to date, we are working on approximately $30 million in current sales opportunities and projects for our Engineered Products Division that are all at different phases of the sales process. Our pipeline for our Engineered Products Division consists of 57 active opportunities and 51 customers with the potential to close by the end of 2014. The number is compelling given that our first quarter of this year alone comprises of almost 75% of 2013's full year revenues".

    http://prn.to/1hP5KHS

    HardToLove
    Apr 17 08:16 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #270, April 2, 2014 [View instapost]
    (CPST): As I've mentioned, Wrightspeed would likely be the first to benefit (CPST) in the mobile market: "Wrightspeed and Ratto Group Clean Up the North Bay"

    "Ian Wright, Wrightspeed’s founder and CEO, agrees, “The route HD was engineered for the refuse and recycling truck application, where it can reduce fuel spend by $35k per year and dramatically reduce noise pollution.”".

    http://bit.ly/1hP3RuR

    HardToLove
    Apr 17 08:06 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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