Axion Power Concentrator 237: May 16: Axion Power Reports First Quarter Results For 2013 [View instapost]
APMarshal: With the dollar rocketing, we might need to include currency conversion losses in there somewhere. I've been peeking at the AUD/USD cross and in the wek of 7/23/11 it was US$1.0995 close. Last week it closed at US$0.9736 - a huge drop in currency standards.
The "basket" index, DXY which includes the Euro (6 currencies, probably the Yen too, but I don't know), closed at $79.26 week of 1/30/13 and now sits at $84.34 close last week - again a huge move by currency standards.
The nasty thing is that buying carbon for here, it's a boon but selling anything from here it's a negative.
Buying and selling to/from "over there" ameliorates some of these issues.
"In order to export LNG, it takes energy to simply turn that energy into a liquid. How much? Roughly 25%".
"If we add up all of the proposed projects, including an equal number not on the above list, we discover that their collective export capacity is just a hair under 30 billion cubic feet per day, or a whopping 43% of current U.S. production".
Still holding up well. Prices and volumes, in thousands, for the last 10 days: $0.2609 211.23, $0.2588 129.98, $0.2513 1143.06, $0.2492 304.71, $0.2466 270.48 $0.2417 778.10, $0.2372 590.69, $0.2446 0370.42, $0.2592 641.74, $0.2599 261.56.
With no exceptionally large trades today and the VWAP where it's at, relative to the low and high, I think we are seeing more bullishness than we might have expected.
I couldn't check as many bid and ask changes today but the activity there seems to be supporting a more bullish sentiment too. The bids increased eight times and decreased only four times. The asks increased seven times and decreased 5 times. The trend in trades was up through about 14:00 and then stayed flat until around 15:00, when some volatility came in and gave some increased highs, with lows staying right around those seen in the14:00 onward period. So we had early-day strength followed by late-day flat, mostly. Still a nice change from the long period of late-day weakness we used to see consistently.
Of special note is the continuing improvement in the averages of the buy:sell ratio, in percentages. All 4 averages, 10, 25, 50 and 100-day periods, are back in normal ranges, 47%, 42%, 37% and 42%, as the daily trend is trending around normal percentages: 54.4%, 58.4%, 57.4%, 37.4%, 0.346%, 42.3%, 29.4%, 43.2% and 60.3%.
Average trade size during this period of uncertainty has been low and continues low, with today's average trade size again in the low-mid-range of what I think is retail size. I'm beginning to think this is a normal side-effect of having more, and more active, participants, as evidenced by the cadre of newer market-maker participants we've seen. This reduced average trade size became more common with their appearance. This may be normal until we see another change in the market-makers participating, which might never happen. At some point I might have re-assess what is normal “retail” size.
Daily short sale percentages continue to trend up. The 10-day average has “spiked” to 24.44% from single-digit range 3/13-4/24. My feeling is that as long as the “new” market-makers are here we'll see these elevated levels, possibly heading to the levels I mentioned in this comment in one of JP's blogs.
However, I do believe we would have to see volumes consistently higher, along with continued higher numbers of market-makers participating, to get there. Sans that, I'm gravitating to somewhere in the ~30% range as reasonable and likely. When volume really comes in, then those higher percentages mentioned in my comment seem more likely.
My original experimental inflection point calculations continue mixed, although they are turning a bit less negative right now. 4 of the six periods show a one-day reducing weakness, as do the 5-day changes in 4 of the six periods and the average rate of change for those metrics. My newer version, designed to consider additional factors, is slightly less positive one the one day change, although still in a state that could be easily induced to signal a move up. Only 3 of the 6 periods show a one-day improvement. The 5-day change in those periods has 4 improving along with 5 of the 6 average changes over the five days showing improvement.
Details of “Dly Sht % of 'sells'” and inflection points omitted here.
Axion Power Concentrator 237: May 16: Axion Power Reports First Quarter Results For 2013 [View instapost]
On the share price front, I'd like to start thinking from another perspective.
The value proposition might drive the electrode pricing? What do the competing technologies cost to perform the same function (nearly?) as well? Is there a price point acceptable to the end-users (meaning auto manufacturers in this case?) that is closer to those competing technologies' prices such that we command more margin without sacrificing (much?) market-share? I'm thinking performance for the cost being a viable metric here. If that price-point is available and passes through the battery manufacturer as well, then the projections we think of at the moment might be low.
Add in some period of a semi-monopoly position, regarding the IP and trade secrets providing a barrier to entry for certain technologies, and the fact that regulators will, if JP is correct, *mandate* a use and lifetime requirement similar to all other pollution control systems, ...
That's just the automotive market. Are there some advantages in the other markets that Axion also holds that add to pricing power when compared to competing technologies?
I think this might be a better starting point than just thinking of ourselves in *any* market as another commodity component. We might be components in a commodity, but that doesn't *necessarily* mean that our margins and pricing have to be commodity-like ... at least for some time?
ISTM that some period of increased pricing power must exist to enable recouping of the costs sunk to get to where we are in a reasonable time-frame *and* support on-going R & D for improvements and new product lines (large cell size, e.g?).
If we aren't growing we'll be dying, according to an old mantra. A commercial enterprise can never be static and that means you can't price at just a "maintenance" level. Every business customer will understand this, no?
Axion Power Concentrator 237: May 16: Axion Power Reports First Quarter Results For 2013 [View instapost]
John: I don't believe any big change in the semi-monthly short report will appear, other than some mormal shorts in the last 3 or fewer days of the reporting period that are the result of normal MM activity, as some of the shares (either backing sell orders or covering buys) that cover shorts may not have settled yet.. Similarly, IIUC that the certificate holders are really out, I expect the fails will not come back to previous levels either.
However, that "the certificate holders are really out" is the part I'm unclear on.
Axion Power Concentrator 237: May 16: Axion Power Reports First Quarter Results For 2013 [View instapost]
MrI: I think John is better qualified to look at that than I am. However, if there are certificates involved in those private placements, which I don't know, they'll likely show up in my fails-to-deliver stuff shortly. There's other reasons fails can occur, but they tend to be very infrequent, sporadic and very low volume.
Through the latest fails report, April second-half, there's no new fails for AXPW. That could change in May, of course.
Axion Power Concentrator 237: May 16: Axion Power Reports First Quarter Results For 2013 [View instapost]
MrHolty: "I assume that if it gets too bad Axion can go back to BMW and say got a #2?".
Based on the education from JP and Iindelco, I would think that BMW introduced two or three potential partners right off the bat. My thinking is this is suggested on a couple levels.
First, BMW wants to maximize the chance for success, *and* get the best price. Having a couple candidates increases the chance a deal will be struck and puts some of their current suppliers in competition with each other, helping to keep prices down - remember a battery is a commodity to the auto makers.
Second, if the decision was to introduce in Europe first, they could still have a single point of system failure if only one partner was engaged from the beginning. Redundancy, even if phased in over some reasonable time-frame, should be the desired configuration I think.
Axion Power Concentrator 237: May 16: Axion Power Reports First Quarter Results For 2013 [View instapost]
SMaurin: +1. JP's only responsibility as a participant is to provide best assessment when he chooses to do so, just as he would expect any of us to do.
I'm grateful that he takes the time and hope he never feels that participation here carries any other responsibilities or is a burden on him.
Axion Power Concentrator 237: May 16: Axion Power Reports First Quarter Results For 2013 [View instapost]
MrI: "I know your guess has been the MMs, and JP's the private placement holders".
Clarification: JP's private placement holders s/b long gone based on the change in short sales and fails to deliver (documented in another instablog I have up). My daily insta also has some numbers, going back several months (to August?) when we believed they were nearly exhausted. Numbers support that as well in the following times.
As to the MMs, I continue to believe that the new spate of MMs are handling shares not held by them or their owning (if any) broker. By rule, shares not controlled by the seller must be flagged short. So this is where I think the increase comes from.
By implication, the prior recent low short volumes and percentages were being fed in either from MMs owned by brokers that had the sell orders or the MMs were holding short-term long positions to play in the market. With stock prices were they are, a goodly number of shares might fit their risk-management parameters,
" has the 26.4 cent deal price as the upper number. Also interesting."
I've read in the past that often the market treats the price of cap raises as what value managment placed on the stock. I don't know if that's true or not. But there is likely a feeling that the new holders at $0.264 will be loathe to sell below that, so any buys below that s/b relatively lower-risk. Don't forget the capital raise also includes some purchase down the road (via the warrants? I'd have to double check) at $0.302, IIRC. This could also factor in.
"MAXM, the MM affiliate of the agent, has had a bid at 17 cents since the cap raise"
Yes, I noticed as they were "new" to us here. I think that's just one of those "you never know" bids.
D.G.: Give it the bees instead and you might not need it - drink for pleasure only. Of course, there's the possibility the bees are "a mean drunk", in which case, forget that idea.
Axion Power Concentrator 236: May 15: Axion Power Releases Quarterly Report For The First Quarter 2013 [View instapost]
Froggey: "Yeah, we’ve been looking to different options in different opportunities for strategic investors, but price hasn’t been what we’re willing to pay if you will. So the investments that we’ve had in the past have been investments in terms of financing, certainly the investors that we had last year were good investors. They have stuck with the company. We see them appear in the various lists of shareholders. They’re still there. They’re still with us. We have a different type of investment this time around that we be engaged in".
I have to interpret this as referencing the financial investors in the capital raise from last year.
Axion Power Concentrator 237: May 16: Axion Power Reports First Quarter Results For 2013 [View instapost]
HardToLove
Axion Power Concentrator 237: May 16: Axion Power Reports First Quarter Results For 2013 [View instapost]
The "basket" index, DXY which includes the Euro (6 currencies, probably the Yen too, but I don't know), closed at $79.26 week of 1/30/13 and now sits at $84.34 close last week - again a huge move by currency standards.
The nasty thing is that buying carbon for here, it's a boon but selling anything from here it's a negative.
Buying and selling to/from "over there" ameliorates some of these issues.
HardToLove
QC #257, May 10, 2013 [View instapost]
http://bit.ly/YTdxKd
"In order to export LNG, it takes energy to simply turn that energy into a liquid. How much? Roughly 25%".
"If we add up all of the proposed projects, including an equal number not on the above list, we discover that their collective export capacity is just a hair under 30 billion cubic feet per day, or a whopping 43% of current U.S. production".
HardToLove
Axion Power Concentrator 237: May 16: Axion Power Reports First Quarter Results For 2013 [View instapost]
# Trds: 64, MinTrSz: 160, MaxTrSz: 15000, Vol 261558, AvTrSz: 4087
Min. Pr: 0.2500, Max Pr: 0.2640, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2599
# Buys, Shares: 40 157799, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2613
# Sells, Shares: 20 88760, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2573
# Unkn, Shares: 4 14999, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.2598
Buy:Sell 1.78:1 (60.3% “buys”), DlyShts 92700 (35.44%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 104.44%
Still holding up well. Prices and volumes, in thousands, for the last 10 days:
$0.2609 211.23, $0.2588 129.98, $0.2513 1143.06, $0.2492 304.71, $0.2466 270.48
$0.2417 778.10, $0.2372 590.69, $0.2446 0370.42, $0.2592 641.74, $0.2599 261.56.
With no exceptionally large trades today and the VWAP where it's at, relative to the low and high, I think we are seeing more bullishness than we might have expected.
I couldn't check as many bid and ask changes today but the activity there seems to be supporting a more bullish sentiment too. The bids increased eight times and decreased only four times. The asks increased seven times and decreased 5 times. The trend in trades was up through about 14:00 and then stayed flat until around 15:00, when some volatility came in and gave some increased highs, with lows staying right around those seen in the14:00 onward period. So we had early-day strength followed by late-day flat, mostly. Still a nice change from the long period of late-day weakness we used to see consistently.
Of special note is the continuing improvement in the averages of the buy:sell ratio, in percentages. All 4 averages, 10, 25, 50 and 100-day periods, are back in normal ranges, 47%, 42%, 37% and 42%, as the daily trend is trending around normal percentages: 54.4%, 58.4%, 57.4%, 37.4%, 0.346%, 42.3%, 29.4%, 43.2% and 60.3%.
Average trade size during this period of uncertainty has been low and continues low, with today's average trade size again in the low-mid-range of what I think is retail size. I'm beginning to think this is a normal side-effect of having more, and more active, participants, as evidenced by the cadre of newer market-maker participants we've seen. This reduced average trade size became more common with their appearance. This may be normal until we see another change in the market-makers participating, which might never happen. At some point I might have re-assess what is normal “retail” size.
Daily short sale percentages continue to trend up. The 10-day average has “spiked” to 24.44% from single-digit range 3/13-4/24. My feeling is that as long as the “new” market-makers are here we'll see these elevated levels, possibly heading to the levels I mentioned in this comment in one of JP's blogs.
http://bit.ly/13x5Pn6
However, I do believe we would have to see volumes consistently higher, along with continued higher numbers of market-makers participating, to get there. Sans that, I'm gravitating to somewhere in the ~30% range as reasonable and likely. When volume really comes in, then those higher percentages mentioned in my comment seem more likely.
My original experimental inflection point calculations continue mixed, although they are turning a bit less negative right now. 4 of the six periods show a one-day reducing weakness, as do the 5-day changes in 4 of the six periods and the average rate of change for those metrics. My newer version, designed to consider additional factors, is slightly less positive one the one day change, although still in a state that could be easily induced to signal a move up. Only 3 of the 6 periods show a one-day improvement. The 5-day change in those periods has 4 improving along with 5 of the 6 average changes over the five days showing improvement.
Details of “Dly Sht % of 'sells'” and inflection points omitted here.
HardToLove
Axion Power Concentrator 237: May 16: Axion Power Reports First Quarter Results For 2013 [View instapost]
The value proposition might drive the electrode pricing? What do the competing technologies cost to perform the same function (nearly?) as well? Is there a price point acceptable to the end-users (meaning auto manufacturers in this case?) that is closer to those competing technologies' prices such that we command more margin without sacrificing (much?) market-share? I'm thinking performance for the cost being a viable metric here. If that price-point is available and passes through the battery manufacturer as well, then the projections we think of at the moment might be low.
Add in some period of a semi-monopoly position, regarding the IP and trade secrets providing a barrier to entry for certain technologies, and the fact that regulators will, if JP is correct, *mandate* a use and lifetime requirement similar to all other pollution control systems, ...
That's just the automotive market. Are there some advantages in the other markets that Axion also holds that add to pricing power when compared to competing technologies?
I think this might be a better starting point than just thinking of ourselves in *any* market as another commodity component. We might be components in a commodity, but that doesn't *necessarily* mean that our margins and pricing have to be commodity-like ... at least for some time?
ISTM that some period of increased pricing power must exist to enable recouping of the costs sunk to get to where we are in a reasonable time-frame *and* support on-going R & D for improvements and new product lines (large cell size, e.g?).
If we aren't growing we'll be dying, according to an old mantra. A commercial enterprise can never be static and that means you can't price at just a "maintenance" level. Every business customer will understand this, no?
HardToLove
Axion Power Concentrator 237: May 16: Axion Power Reports First Quarter Results For 2013 [View instapost]
However, that "the certificate holders are really out" is the part I'm unclear on.
HardToLove
Axion Power Concentrator 237: May 16: Axion Power Reports First Quarter Results For 2013 [View instapost]
Through the latest fails report, April second-half, there's no new fails for AXPW. That could change in May, of course.
HardToLove
Axion Power Concentrator 237: May 16: Axion Power Reports First Quarter Results For 2013 [View instapost]
I don't know about that! ;-))
HardToLove
Axion Power Concentrator 237: May 16: Axion Power Reports First Quarter Results For 2013 [View instapost]
Based on the education from JP and Iindelco, I would think that BMW introduced two or three potential partners right off the bat. My thinking is this is suggested on a couple levels.
First, BMW wants to maximize the chance for success, *and* get the best price. Having a couple candidates increases the chance a deal will be struck and puts some of their current suppliers in competition with each other, helping to keep prices down - remember a battery is a commodity to the auto makers.
Second, if the decision was to introduce in Europe first, they could still have a single point of system failure if only one partner was engaged from the beginning. Redundancy, even if phased in over some reasonable time-frame, should be the desired configuration I think.
MHO,
HardToLove
Axion Power Concentrator 237: May 16: Axion Power Reports First Quarter Results For 2013 [View instapost]
I'm grateful that he takes the time and hope he never feels that participation here carries any other responsibilities or is a burden on him.
MHO,
HardToLove
Axion Power Concentrator 237: May 16: Axion Power Reports First Quarter Results For 2013 [View instapost]
Clarification: JP's private placement holders s/b long gone based on the change in short sales and fails to deliver (documented in another instablog I have up). My daily insta also has some numbers, going back several months (to August?) when we believed they were nearly exhausted. Numbers support that as well in the following times.
As to the MMs, I continue to believe that the new spate of MMs are handling shares not held by them or their owning (if any) broker. By rule, shares not controlled by the seller must be flagged short. So this is where I think the increase comes from.
By implication, the prior recent low short volumes and percentages were being fed in either from MMs owned by brokers that had the sell orders or the MMs were holding short-term long positions to play in the market. With stock prices were they are, a goodly number of shares might fit their risk-management parameters,
" has the 26.4 cent deal price as the upper number. Also interesting."
I've read in the past that often the market treats the price of cap raises as what value managment placed on the stock. I don't know if that's true or not. But there is likely a feeling that the new holders at $0.264 will be loathe to sell below that, so any buys below that s/b relatively lower-risk. Don't forget the capital raise also includes some purchase down the road (via the warrants? I'd have to double check) at $0.302, IIRC. This could also factor in.
"MAXM, the MM affiliate of the agent, has had a bid at 17 cents since the cap raise"
Yes, I noticed as they were "new" to us here. I think that's just one of those "you never know" bids.
MHO,
HardToLove
QC #257, May 10, 2013 [View instapost]
HardToLove
Axion Power Concentrator 237: May 16: Axion Power Reports First Quarter Results For 2013 [View instapost]
HardToLove
Axion Power Concentrator 237: May 16: Axion Power Reports First Quarter Results For 2013 [View instapost]
Anyway, I C & P'd the text into this comment from the page "Results of Operations", "Motive Transportation", page 10.
http://seekingalpha.co...
Note the "We are a few months into that program and it is going well".
HardToLove
Axion Power Concentrator 236: May 15: Axion Power Releases Quarterly Report For The First Quarter 2013 [View instapost]
I have to interpret this as referencing the financial investors in the capital raise from last year.
HardToLove