(CPST): I called, on another board, for a move up today, possibly the beginning of the (customary?) run up into quarterly reporting. Over $1 wouldn't surprise me, although there's quite a few possible resistance points along the way for profit-takers to key on.
But two consecutive days of good volume on moves up suggests there *may* be some legs.
ATM +7.78% and up ~10% over two days now.
I picked a price point earlier and loaded up with 14K shares all at $0.86 over the last couple of weeks while the pps was vacillating around that price.
Be aware of the nasty, still, short interest and my TFH theory that the shorters get aid in driving price down to allow shorts to cover.
But, volume these two days are both over double the 10-day average, so the folks that try to hold price down may be getting overwhelmed.
WWT: Ideally, you want to be integrated because you can lower costs by both curtailment of usage participation (lowering rate as a participant) and can generate some offsetting revenues by selling excess capacity back to the grid.
Why the permits were denied I can only speculate. If the concern was competition, the utility hurt their case with this move IMO. Both because others will see they don't need the utility and the utility will be seen as a self-serving anti-progress entity needing restructuring to adapt to both the needs of the locale and get on board with technology changes.
They shot themselves in the foot, I'm pretty sure.
VWAP continues to hold up well. I listed a set yesterday, so I won't do it here gain. Interesting, to me, is an apparent correlation between a reducing average trade size as daily short sales remain elevated. I don't have clue about cause and effect, or which is which here, but maybe some mulling it over will yield something useful going forward. Later on that.
The changes in bids I spotted today had 12 increases and 5 decreases (some were “uncovered”). The asks had 6 increases (some “uncovered”) and 11 decreases. Having the buy percentage where it is with this sort of activity suggests, to me, that buyers are seeing a good risk/reward scenario here. If sellers recognized the same thing ...
The average trade size is again very low and the daily short sales quite high, relative to levels over the last several months. The trend is remarkable and most easily discerned on the instablog chart. Part of the rise seen is due to using percentages. While trade volume declines but daily short sales volume remains relatively elevated, the percentage of short sales rises. This would seem to confirm a thought I expressed earlier, that the new cadre of MMs showing up were responsible for increased daily short sales, because before their appearance the percentage of daily short sales was relatively stable for quite a few months.
Knowing, generally, how these things work, it may also suggest my thoughts that some MMs were going short-term long, for trading advantage and profit, or otherwise had control of shares backing sell orders (owned by the broker holding the shares?) may have been correct. We'll never know, I'm sure. But we can be sure that one or more of the MMs newly seen do not have control of the shares being sold, either through a long position or ownership by the holding broker. Because I've been tracking some of these for a while in my peeks at the bid and ask changes, we may be able to predict some changes in daily short sales trend in the future as these MMs become (in)active in our market.
Possibly related is the change in the buy:sell ratio, which has been trending strongly up recently. This is also best seen on the charts, especially the buy percentage averages chart.
Five of the six periods of my original experimental inflection point calculations had positive one-day changes. The five-day change of these was evenly split with three improving (25, 50 and 200-day) and three weakening a bit (5, 10, and 100-day) while the average change/day for those were also split. This indecision is reflected in the squiggles on the chart.
My newer version has four of the six periods showing improvement in the one-day change and five of the six improving over a five-day period. The average daily change of the periods over five days showed improvement in five of the periods. Generally, my newer version is more bullish than the original version. I had mentioned a couple days back that it was in a state in which it could be easily induced to issue a signal of a move up. It remains so today. It is not signaling yet.
Details of “Dly Sht % of 'sells'” and inflection points omitted here.
Axion Power Concentrator 238: May 21: Axion Power Reports First Quarter Results For 2013 [View instapost]
48: With the increased usable range of the V2 PbC, and thus more available "energy", the PbC might be a good fit all around: fast (re)charge, 1/3 less weight than LAB/AMG, good temperature tolerance, no fire hazard, long-lifetime, ...
We can hope. *That* would be product validation, for sure.
(CPST): Columbian center for infrastructure goes completely off-grid. Local utility didn't want to give permits for inter-connect, so they went stand-alone.
Natural Gas Turbine | Trigeneration | Turbine Generator
Axion Power Concentrator 238: May 21: Axion Power Reports First Quarter Results For 2013 [View instapost]
Someone at ATDF playing games: 14:01 bids $0.2591x10K. Then walks it up, in 10K steps to 86,666 through 14:13. Then starts walking it down, 10K at a time again, to 10K at 14:14.
Axion Power Concentrator 238: May 21: Axion Power Reports First Quarter Results For 2013 [View instapost]
EBuiel: How would the single-point failure issue be handled with this? A cordoned part of the plant "over there" that Axion runs, and is available to the manufacturer if Axion couldn't deliver for whatever reason?
Axion Power Concentrator 238: May 21: Axion Power Reports First Quarter Results For 2013 [View instapost]
Futurist: I still think the PC is *not* designed to be an income producer as its primary purpose. I believe it is a power quality and availability product that has the ability to generate some offsetting revenues for its users. The big money will come from reduced down-time, curtailment, ... of business operations.
I don't foresee any sales, near-term at least, that would be some industrial customer buying because "we can generate income with this".
For utilities, the deferment of capex (infra-structure upgrades) may be the equivalent of income and should have good sales there based on savings and, effectively, is equivalent to income. Smoothing regulator-mandated renewables would also be a good catalyst I think.
VWAP continues to hold up well: $0.2372, $0.2446, $0.2592, $0.2599 and $0.2575. The trend has been long-enough that it has begun to show in the 5, 10 and 25-day averages, while the longer term ones, the 50, 100 and 200-day have yet to be affected: $0.2517, $0.2506, $0.2490, $0.2634, $0.2918 and $0.2921. Note how the three shorter-term averages are “in order” with the 5-day above the10-day, which is above the 25-day. In conjunction with the buy:sell action, there may be an approach to a rise going on. The buy percentages for the 10, 25, 50 and 100-day averages are showing a similar configuration: 48%, 0.44%, 0.38% and 0.42.
The bid/ask movements showed bid changes having 9 increases and 5 decreases (some “uncovered”), and ask changes showing 10 increases (some “uncovered”) and 9 decreases. I couldn't see any strong trend of “late-day weakness” or any other pattern to the moves.
Average trade sizes continue to be down in the lower range of what I believe to be “retail” and I think is an effect of the entry of market-makers not commonly seen before the capital raise occurred: 5199, 4313, 4063, 3559, 4863, 4250, 5612, 4650, 4087 and 3628. This seems supported by the change in “Dly Sht % of 'sells'”, which has moved higher recently, but nowhere near the levels of the heavy selling seen last year.
Feb Avg: 54.68%, min: 0.35%, max: 200.89% Mar Avg: 49.86%, min: 0.70%, max: 252.30% Apr Avg: 31.50%, min: 0.00%, max: 74.35% May Avg: 62.73%, min: 0.00%, max: 398.94%
Then the Mega-C shares entered market? Note the hefty change in both the averages and maximums.
Sometime in August I began stating that I thought the larger sellers might be getting exhausted.
Aug Avg: 113.91%, min: 0.00%, max: 899.39% Sep Avg: 56.67%, min: 3.01%, max: 252.39% Oct Avg: 85.05%, min: 11.45%, max: 565.73% Nov Avg: 51.96%, min: 3.53%, max: 259.67% Dec Avg: 38.72%, min: 1.54%, max: 258.33%
============ 2013 =============== Jan Avg: 44.20%, min: 0.00%, max: 262.58% Feb Avg: 20.90%, min: 2.88%, max: 55.65% Mar Avg: 15.42%, min: 0.00%, max: 100.79% Apr Avg: 40.63%, min: 0.00%, max: 690.95% May Avg: 56.17%, min: 9.15%, max: 150.50%
I believe some of this recent increase is a “pull” effect where the prices remaining better than sellers might have expected, but not substantially improving, has caused them to make the decision to get while the getting is good. This would also account for the recent entry of market-makers not seen for a long time.
Daily volumes, which spiked after the capital raise announcement, are trending towards the pre-announcement levels. The 10, 25, 50 and 100-day averages are, in thousands: 485, 374, 298 and 300. Daily short sales continue in a range that I expect are more normal than the extremely low levels we observed for a long time. This has continued long enough to affect the 10, 25, 50 and 100-day average percentages: 27.75%, 18.73%, 12.12% and 11.86%. On 4/23 they were 4.62%, 5.33%, 7.5% and 10%.
My original experimental inflection point calculations are, again, making another attempt at reduced weakening in their trends. Five of the six periods showed one-day improvement and the other, the 100-day, was unchanged, for all practical purposes. The five-day change in the periods had all showing improvement and the five-day rte of change of these had five of the six showing improvement. I do want to emphasize that these are only reductions in weakening, so far, and do not yet form the pattern that suggests an up move is imminent or in progress. It is a needed precursor though. My newer version, considering additional factors, has only two improvements in the one-day change, replicating yesterday's profile of being weaker than the original version. In the five-day change of these metrics, four are weaker, notably two of the three shorter-term ones. The five-day rate of change for these has five of the six weaker.
Details of “Dly Sht % of 'sells'” and inflection points omitted here.
Axion Power Concentrator 238: May 21: Axion Power Reports First Quarter Results For 2013 [View instapost]
HardToLove
Axion Power Concentrator 238: May 21: Axion Power Reports First Quarter Results For 2013 [View instapost]
HardToLove
QC #257, May 10, 2013 [View instapost]
But two consecutive days of good volume on moves up suggests there *may* be some legs.
ATM +7.78% and up ~10% over two days now.
I picked a price point earlier and loaded up with 14K shares all at $0.86 over the last couple of weeks while the pps was vacillating around that price.
Be aware of the nasty, still, short interest and my TFH theory that the shorters get aid in driving price down to allow shorts to cover.
But, volume these two days are both over double the 10-day average, so the folks that try to hold price down may be getting overwhelmed.
HardToLove
QC #257, May 10, 2013 [View instapost]
Why the permits were denied I can only speculate. If the concern was competition, the utility hurt their case with this move IMO. Both because others will see they don't need the utility and the utility will be seen as a self-serving anti-progress entity needing restructuring to adapt to both the needs of the locale and get on board with technology changes.
They shot themselves in the foot, I'm pretty sure.
MHO,
HardToLove
Axion Power Concentrator 238: May 21: Axion Power Reports First Quarter Results For 2013 [View instapost]
# Trds: 64, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 24999, Vol 185758, AvTrSz: 2902
Min. Pr: 0.2531, Max Pr: 0.2640, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2594
# Buys, Shares: 38 108966, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2599
# Sells, Shares: 20 65050, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2586
# Unkn, Shares: 6 11742, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.2592
Buy:Sell 1.68:1 (58.7% “buys”), DlyShts 86259 (46.44%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 132.60%
VWAP continues to hold up well. I listed a set yesterday, so I won't do it here gain. Interesting, to me, is an apparent correlation between a reducing average trade size as daily short sales remain elevated. I don't have clue about cause and effect, or which is which here, but maybe some mulling it over will yield something useful going forward. Later on that.
The changes in bids I spotted today had 12 increases and 5 decreases (some were “uncovered”). The asks had 6 increases (some “uncovered”) and 11 decreases. Having the buy percentage where it is with this sort of activity suggests, to me, that buyers are seeing a good risk/reward scenario here. If sellers recognized the same thing ...
The average trade size is again very low and the daily short sales quite high, relative to levels over the last several months. The trend is remarkable and most easily discerned on the instablog chart. Part of the rise seen is due to using percentages. While trade volume declines but daily short sales volume remains relatively elevated, the percentage of short sales rises. This would seem to confirm a thought I expressed earlier, that the new cadre of MMs showing up were responsible for increased daily short sales, because before their appearance the percentage of daily short sales was relatively stable for quite a few months.
Knowing, generally, how these things work, it may also suggest my thoughts that some MMs were going short-term long, for trading advantage and profit, or otherwise had control of shares backing sell orders (owned by the broker holding the shares?) may have been correct. We'll never know, I'm sure. But we can be sure that one or more of the MMs newly seen do not have control of the shares being sold, either through a long position or ownership by the holding broker. Because I've been tracking some of these for a while in my peeks at the bid and ask changes, we may be able to predict some changes in daily short sales trend in the future as these MMs become (in)active in our market.
Possibly related is the change in the buy:sell ratio, which has been trending strongly up recently. This is also best seen on the charts, especially the buy percentage averages chart.
Five of the six periods of my original experimental inflection point calculations had positive one-day changes. The five-day change of these was evenly split with three improving (25, 50 and 200-day) and three weakening a bit (5, 10, and 100-day) while the average change/day for those were also split. This indecision is reflected in the squiggles on the chart.
My newer version has four of the six periods showing improvement in the one-day change and five of the six improving over a five-day period. The average daily change of the periods over five days showed improvement in five of the periods. Generally, my newer version is more bullish than the original version. I had mentioned a couple days back that it was in a state in which it could be easily induced to issue a signal of a move up. It remains so today. It is not signaling yet.
Details of “Dly Sht % of 'sells'” and inflection points omitted here.
HardToLove
Axion Power Concentrator 238: May 21: Axion Power Reports First Quarter Results For 2013 [View instapost]
Another success for American ingenuity will be seen just a few years down the road!
HardToLove
Axion Power Concentrator 238: May 21: Axion Power Reports First Quarter Results For 2013 [View instapost]
We can hope. *That* would be product validation, for sure.
HardToLove
Axion Power Concentrator 238: May 21: Axion Power Reports First Quarter Results For 2013 [View instapost]
HardToLove
QC #257, May 10, 2013 [View instapost]
Natural Gas Turbine | Trigeneration | Turbine Generator
http://bit.ly/12V8DeY
HardToLove
QC #257, May 10, 2013 [View instapost]
Per CNBC - I'm sure video available later.
http://bit.ly/119yJYQ
Long version.
HardToLove
Axion Power Concentrator 238: May 21: Axion Power Reports First Quarter Results For 2013 [View instapost]
HardToLove
EDIT down to 10K at 14;14.
Axion Power Concentrator 238: May 21: Axion Power Reports First Quarter Results For 2013 [View instapost]
HardToLove
Axion Power Concentrator 238: May 21: Axion Power Reports First Quarter Results For 2013 [View instapost]
HardToLove
Axion Power Concentrator 238: May 21: Axion Power Reports First Quarter Results For 2013 [View instapost]
I don't foresee any sales, near-term at least, that would be some industrial customer buying because "we can generate income with this".
For utilities, the deferment of capex (infra-structure upgrades) may be the equivalent of income and should have good sales there based on savings and, effectively, is equivalent to income. Smoothing regulator-mandated renewables would also be a good catalyst I think.
MHO,
HardToLove
Axion Power Concentrator 237: May 16: Axion Power Reports First Quarter Results For 2013 [View instapost]
# Trds: 98, MinTrSz: 0, MaxTrSz: 17593, Vol 355550, AvTrSz: 3628
Min. Pr: 0.2510, Max Pr: 0.2615, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2575
# Buys, Shares: 63 208050, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2585
# Sells, Shares: 35 147500, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2561
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1.41:1 (58.5% “buys”), DlyShts 135850 (38.21%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 92.10%
VWAP continues to hold up well: $0.2372, $0.2446, $0.2592, $0.2599 and $0.2575. The trend has been long-enough that it has begun to show in the 5, 10 and 25-day averages, while the longer term ones, the 50, 100 and 200-day have yet to be affected: $0.2517, $0.2506, $0.2490, $0.2634, $0.2918 and $0.2921. Note how the three shorter-term averages are “in order” with the 5-day above the10-day, which is above the 25-day. In conjunction with the buy:sell action, there may be an approach to a rise going on. The buy percentages for the 10, 25, 50 and 100-day averages are showing a similar configuration: 48%, 0.44%, 0.38% and 0.42.
The bid/ask movements showed bid changes having 9 increases and 5 decreases (some “uncovered”), and ask changes showing 10 increases (some “uncovered”) and 9 decreases. I couldn't see any strong trend of “late-day weakness” or any other pattern to the moves.
Average trade sizes continue to be down in the lower range of what I believe to be “retail” and I think is an effect of the entry of market-makers not commonly seen before the capital raise occurred: 5199, 4313, 4063, 3559, 4863, 4250, 5612, 4650, 4087 and 3628. This seems supported by the change in “Dly Sht % of 'sells'”, which has moved higher recently, but nowhere near the levels of the heavy selling seen last year.
Feb Avg: 54.68%, min: 0.35%, max: 200.89%
Mar Avg: 49.86%, min: 0.70%, max: 252.30%
Apr Avg: 31.50%, min: 0.00%, max: 74.35%
May Avg: 62.73%, min: 0.00%, max: 398.94%
Then the Mega-C shares entered market? Note the hefty change in both the averages and maximums.
Jun Avg: Avg: 183.48%, min: 5.05%, max: 1607.50%
Jul Avg: 176.07%, min: 7.75%, max: 1273.20%
Sometime in August I began stating that I thought the larger sellers might be getting exhausted.
Aug Avg: 113.91%, min: 0.00%, max: 899.39%
Sep Avg: 56.67%, min: 3.01%, max: 252.39%
Oct Avg: 85.05%, min: 11.45%, max: 565.73%
Nov Avg: 51.96%, min: 3.53%, max: 259.67%
Dec Avg: 38.72%, min: 1.54%, max: 258.33%
============ 2013 ===============
Jan Avg: 44.20%, min: 0.00%, max: 262.58%
Feb Avg: 20.90%, min: 2.88%, max: 55.65%
Mar Avg: 15.42%, min: 0.00%, max: 100.79%
Apr Avg: 40.63%, min: 0.00%, max: 690.95%
May Avg: 56.17%, min: 9.15%, max: 150.50%
I believe some of this recent increase is a “pull” effect where the prices remaining better than sellers might have expected, but not substantially improving, has caused them to make the decision to get while the getting is good. This would also account for the recent entry of market-makers not seen for a long time.
Daily volumes, which spiked after the capital raise announcement, are trending towards the pre-announcement levels. The 10, 25, 50 and 100-day averages are, in thousands: 485, 374, 298 and 300. Daily short sales continue in a range that I expect are more normal than the extremely low levels we observed for a long time. This has continued long enough to affect the 10, 25, 50 and 100-day average percentages: 27.75%, 18.73%, 12.12% and 11.86%. On 4/23 they were 4.62%, 5.33%, 7.5% and 10%.
My original experimental inflection point calculations are, again, making another attempt at reduced weakening in their trends. Five of the six periods showed one-day improvement and the other, the 100-day, was unchanged, for all practical purposes. The five-day change in the periods had all showing improvement and the five-day rte of change of these had five of the six showing improvement. I do want to emphasize that these are only reductions in weakening, so far, and do not yet form the pattern that suggests an up move is imminent or in progress. It is a needed precursor though. My newer version, considering additional factors, has only two improvements in the one-day change, replicating yesterday's profile of being weaker than the original version. In the five-day change of these metrics, four are weaker, notably two of the three shorter-term ones. The five-day rate of change for these has five of the six weaker.
Details of “Dly Sht % of 'sells'” and inflection points omitted here.
HardToLove