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H. T. Love  

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  • A Speculative Play On UQM Beginning 2/7/2015 [View instapost]
    Thanks D Lane. Guess for near-term we need to look to that Chinese mining equipment maker and Great Wall. Hm, maybe that expected follow-on order from Ballard too.

    HardToLove
    Jul 1, 2015. 05:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Speculative Play On UQM Beginning 2/7/2015 [View instapost]
    Looks like their future and fortune can be assured if they don't mess up with the debt financing.

    If we knew which and how many UQM motors they use we could do some rough calcul;ations of revenue impact.

    Oh well, thanks for the link D Lane!

    HardToLove
    Jul 1, 2015. 05:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quick Chat #281 June 1 2015 [View instapost]
    D.G.: My thoughts are on the airwaves.

    HardToLove
    Jul 1, 2015. 01:30 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Wish I Had Been Wrong About Capstone Turbine [View article]
    BTW: From the close of $0.4213, the AH trades were already running as high as $0.4530, +7.52%!

    On a days spread of 24.39%, $0.41-$0.51, that good of a recovery seems odd and ought to portend something.

    HardToLove
    Jun 28, 2015. 03:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • I Wish I Had Been Wrong About Capstone Turbine [View article]
    My problem is spelling errors even with spell checks enabled.

    Strangely, I always seem to catch them after the timeout for editing occurs as I re-read one final time.

    BTW, don't be surprised to see Capstone rebound. Some business related reasons that will likely come to pass, but more related to the Russell 2K adjustment.

    At EOD, with 42.9MM traded, allowing half for a MM "double count" effect (and that would be high as intra/inter-broker trades are likely on any day and likely a lot more today), we had probably *at_least* ~21.45MM shares change hands. At 15:59 buy % was 32.94% on volume of ~4,841,648 (odd lots excluded) and by the time all the AH activities finished it was 51.57%. The normal closing block was quite large at 20.53MM and AH added another ~17.5MM. How much was real AH trades or just some kind of MM clean-up and booking activity I can't say.

    Assuming some percentage were shorters covering, which we'll know 7/10 when the next short report appears, we still have a large percentage that went to brokers, maybe some institutionals, boutique houses, and some retail.

    Focusing on the brokers, a.k.a "sell side", they may now have a large number of shares to distribute and should start their pump machines going so they can sell to their clients and others. In fact, already?

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    I've posted elsewhere that once out of the R2K we'll see CPST outperform. Upgrade ratings should start to trickle out and, indeed, the stock should outperform due to these activities if for no other reason. That's because we are not in a fundamentals-based market but a "Short Attention-span Theater" market. "Sell siders" make their "easy money" with this sort of stuff.

    We also exited "window dressing" season and folks looking to assure their bonuses have stopped selling losers to deploy cash to support their winners.

    *IF* shorters figured not much more downside was available and did some covering and won't start shorting again until a noticable appreciation makes more downside available again, that makes it easier for pps to start rising. How far before shorters again see a favorable risk:reward? I don't know. I would think $1ish if no earth-shattering positive news emanates from CPST.

    Any help provided by CPST management (~$2MM/yr cost reduction, if real) or improved uptake in new sectors/geographies will be a plus.

    I think a lot of help would be if BPC makes their payments as scheduled now because that reduces the reserve management established in SG&A. Hm, profit with no offsetting cost in the accounting because the cost is already booked and in the losses?

    Sounds like a setup for positive surprise, to some anyway, going forward.

    Anyway, I've added some trading blocks in preparation.

    HardToLove
    Jun 28, 2015. 02:58 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Wish I Had Been Wrong About Capstone Turbine [View article]
    C360->C370

    HardToLove
    Jun 28, 2015. 08:55 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Swine Flu, MERS, Ebola And Medical News Concentrator May 23, 2015 To ?? [View instapost]
    "taken the harder it is for those left behind."

    Before she left, when I was certain she wouldn't make it, for the first time in my life I knew what a real knot in one's stomach was.

    As to age, even your sisters age was too young. 60 is not that far along these days.

    I hope the memories left are all good and peace fills the void that has been created.

    HardToLove
    Jun 26, 2015. 03:36 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quick Chat #281 June 1 2015 [View instapost]
    "... drifted off to fantasy land?"

    "... driven off to fantasy land" is probably more accurate, by TPTB, inclusive of the Fed that decided fixed income folks were less important than those that were assett-heavy and must be supported.

    Oh, musn't forget our congress-critters who must be dead relics of another age because they also just lay there and don't move either, most of the time, until it's campaign time again (all but a few weeks of each year?).

    HardToLove
    Jun 25, 2015. 05:53 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Swine Flu, MERS, Ebola And Medical News Concentrator May 23, 2015 To ?? [View instapost]
    "She lived another 5 years (about 4 good ones) before her tenacity was overcome".

    Same for my first wife who succumbed in 1982, 6 days shy of her 36th birthday.

    HardToLove
    Jun 25, 2015. 05:48 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • REE/Strategic Minerals Concentrator, March 18, 2014 [View instapost]
    I think what Motionstrem posted earlier about cash flow will have much more effect for Lynas. Molycorp was known to be in deep doo-doo for quite some time and that likely affected customers as well as pps having it already baked in.

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    Jun 25, 2015. 05:39 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quick Chat #281 June 1 2015 [View instapost]
    $CPST: Getting deleted from the Russell Global and 3000 Indexes.

    Expect voltility.

    http://bit.ly/1kzupvP

    HardToLove
    Jun 18, 2015. 01:07 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quick Chat #281 June 1 2015 [View instapost]
    "I think it will be surprising how fast it will rebound though"

    CPST $0.52 +8.18% now.

    A positive suggestion?

    http://bit.ly/1GiRZb2

    HardToLove
    Jun 18, 2015. 10:03 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quick Chat #281 June 1 2015 [View instapost]
    Been moving some trading blocks in it - 8.34% on one one-day round-trip before the quarterly report. A few percent on the others.

    I think it will be surprising how fast it will rebound though - knowing the headwinds they were facing I pared my core position some time back and will start to re-load slowly now.

    Keep in mind that BPC will be Cash-basis for now and will be paying the $7MM reserved down over the coming quarters. This will go straight to bottom line as material has shipped, so no COGS and SG&A will drop and COH will rise by the amount paid each quarter.

    What this means is margin and the next report won't look nearly as bad because BPC has already paid some of it.

    BTW, maintaining margin at 16% when revenue dropped 13% is a pleasant surprise.

    HardToLove
    Jun 16, 2015. 07:32 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Speculative Play On UQM Beginning 2/7/2015 [View instapost]
    Thank you for taking the time to share the insight Rick!

    Sounds like generally favorable prospects then.

    HardToLove
    Jun 16, 2015. 05:26 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Speculative Play On UQM Beginning 2/7/2015 [View instapost]
    Rick,
    "big order news for UQM will probably come from China and not stateside as management indicated. It also means that the stock is unlikely to make a significant move unless we hear news from China"
    Agree. Since the demise of CODA I have figured this is where the viability will come from initially.

    If the new rules regarding making source code availble in China doesn't scuttle the deal I thinking about a year or so more for some of those initiatives to start coming to fruition.

    Meanwhile, I'm suspecting that the hydrogen compressor business UQM bought might be more robust as time passes and more equipment gets converted. Not expecting a parabolic ramp-up though, just sporadic incremental growth at best.

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    Jun 16, 2015. 07:45 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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