Seeking Alpha

H. T. Love

 
View as an RSS Feed
View H. T. Love's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Axion Power Concentrator 381: Nov. 16, 2014 [View instapost]
    Found a work round and got the charts into the blog.

    HardToLove
    Nov 22 05:41 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 381: Nov. 16, 2014 [View instapost]
    Seeking Alpha is unable to load my charts again. There's links in the blog header where the charts should be that you can click to view them.

    11/21/2014: EOD stuff partially copied from blog (up now).
    # Trds: 70, MinTrSz: 1, MaxTrSz: 4226, Vol: 30626, AvTrSz: 438
    Min. Pr: 1.4200, Max Pr: 1.6500, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 1.4566
    # Buys, Shares: 9 1679, VW Avg Buy Pr: 1.4394
    # Sells, Shares: 57 25739, VW Avg Sell Pr: 1.4606
    # Unkn, Shares: 4 3208, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 1.4338
    Buy:Sell 1:15.33 (05.48% "buys"), DlyShts 9026 (29.47%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 35.07%

    WVAP would have been two cents plus lower if not for the trading in the last minute of the day. See the comments in the trading breakdown by time for details. I wonder if this is a rejuvenated (or more likely reconstituted?) paint crew. It's awesome regardless.

    Volume continues low and falling, down another -20.54% today. The level continues low, even ...

    The change in trend to showing weakening in the intra-day trading continued today. The buy percentage improvement ceased in a big way today – just look at the ~5.5% buy percentage above.

    Daily short percentage moved back to a normal range, now ...

    Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved -1.39%, -4.07%, -07.05%, -20.54% and 117.49% respectively. Price spread today was 16.20% vs. 19.44%, 8.39%, 16.78%, 17.16%, 19.93%, 9.25%, 10.53%, 14.87% and 22.07% on prior days. See the comments in the trading breakdown by time for details of last-minute action that affected these things – most dramatically ...

    The larger trades (>= 500) occurred on 15 of the 70 trades, 21.43%. These 22,934 shares were 74.88% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $1.4589. 1 of the larger ...

    The other 55 trades, 78.57% of the day's trades, traded 7,692 shares, 25.12% of the days volume. The VWAP was $1.4498. 8 trades ...

    The usual is in the blog here.
    http://seekingalpha.co...

    HardToLove
    Nov 22 04:47 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 381: Nov. 16, 2014 [View instapost]
    Jpau: We have to assume that whatever changes are made "standard" in the industry to meet 48 volt design, e.g. thinner and more cells per battery, bigger battery cases, ... multiple AGM batteries in a string ... would apply to Axion as well.

    But ISTR that we already have done some of that with the 16 volt PbC? IIRC it uses the 30HT form factor? Anyway, the 12v version would have 6 cells per case and the 16v version has 8 cells per case.

    So we apparently already have some flexibility built in, just as I assume other major suppliers also have.

    Of course, if there's some radical departure from current standard factors to get to 48v in a single case, then everybody would suffer equally I guess.

    HardToLove
    Nov 22 04:41 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 381: Nov. 16, 2014 [View instapost]
    Jpau: There should be no need to reconfigure a standard AGM production line. The carbon electrodes are assembled into standard sizes that are designed to work in the existing lines and drop into existing standard cases..

    Witness that Axion produced batteries using these plates on an already existing line. They did do upgrades to some parts of it to increase capacity IIRC.

    Because of the weight difference I presume there would be some "tuning" that might be done, or needed. Maybe some tuning since the carbon electrodes might be a little more fragile? I don't know but I can envision robotic lines having reduced pressure if they "grab" the electrodes to pick them up, or some such. Those sorts of things should be programmable.

    HardToLove
    Nov 22 03:42 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 381: Nov. 16, 2014 [View instapost]
    Charts are up in my blog for those that want to peek. But I don't think they are all that useful with the action of the last few days.

    http://bit.ly/1u6hSbj

    HardToLove
    Nov 21 06:33 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 381: Nov. 16, 2014 [View instapost]
    MrI: Yes, this sort of behavior is not unexpected, although for us it has been unusual even on very low-volume days in the past.

    Today seemed notable to me because I was "prepped" by the 14.6K $1.72 buy at the open yesterday. So for a while I'll be (even more?) suspicious of action like this.

    HardToLove
    Nov 21 06:17 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 381: Nov. 16, 2014 [View instapost]
    Well, well, well.

    How do you like a 3 cent pop starting in the last minute followed by an $0.18 pop in the last 11 seconds.

    Ah I can hear the sell-side now ... "Finished strongly to the upside on good volume into the close. This thing's gonna run like a scalded dog"!

    They don't mention which direction the dog will run though.

    Prior to that last-minute action, our VWAP was $1.4336 on 26.1K. At the end we have lipstick on a pig with a VWAP of $1.4566 on 30.6K. Not very good lipstick, but better than bare skin I guess.

    About 4.5K in the last minute is impressive though.

    Have a good weekend all!

    HardToLove
    Nov 21 04:28 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 381: Nov. 16, 2014 [View instapost]
    AFTER 1/2 HOUR OF effort COULD NOT LOAD CHARTS ON SA - WILL TRY LATER

    11/20/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 68, MinTrSz: 1, MaxTrSz: 14600, Vol: 38542, AvTrSz: 567
    Min. Pr: 1.4400, Max Pr: 1.7200, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 1.5672
    # Buys, Shares: 29 29100, VW Avg Buy Pr: 1.6023
    # Sells, Shares: 28 5092, VW Avg Sell Pr: 1.4510
    # Unkn, Shares: 11 4350, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 1.4686
    Buy:Sell 5.71:1 (75.50% "buys"), DlyShts 4150 (10.77%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 81.50%

    The above was the “hopium” version affected by the single opening $1.72 “buy” of 14.6K (37.88% of the day's volume), which Etrade tells me was a type “CT” (Cross Trade). I think this was likely an intra-broker negotiated trade.

    The “non-hopium” version of the summary stats, with that one trade removed, would be the following
    # Trds: 67, MinTrSz: 1, MaxTrSz: 2100, Vol: 23942, AvTrSz: 357
    Min. Pr: 1.4400, Max Pr: 1.5400, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 1.4740
    # Buys, Shares: 28 14500, VW Avg Buy Pr: 1.4837
    # Sells, Shares: 28 5092, VW Avg Sell Pr: 1.4510
    # Unkn, Shares: 11 4350, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 1.4686
    Buy:Sell 2.85:1 (60.56% "buys"), DlyShts 4150 (17.33%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 81.50%

    The usual is in the blog here.
    http://seekingalpha.co...

    HardToLove
    Nov 21 02:41 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A speculative play on UQM [View instapost]
    FYI: Lots of crossing trades going off early. E.g. b/a 0.9935/$0.9949 and trades going at $0.99.

    This suggests to me that the bots are trading essentially with themselves to generate fees from the exchanges for providing/taking liquidity. That is, they are trying to entice volume, which I expect to be low today if yesterday's vol spike did indeed signal end of down trend.

    That seems supported by the buy:sell which was very negative. I didn't write it down, but ISTR 1:8 or some such. That, combined with large volume spike may indicate sellers at these levels are exhausted.

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    Nov 21 10:21 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A speculative play on UQM [View instapost]
    D lane: That could be just the sort of catalyst we need!

    Let's hope (UQM) is well acquainted with all the manufacturers of that equipment.

    HardToLove
    Nov 21 09:18 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A speculative play on UQM [View instapost]
    D lane: <blush>. Thanks for the compliment.
    DRich: I suspect a lot of it is left from when it was up around $2.30 when we exited? I'm guessing as long as thay don't see a near-term catalyst in their crystal balls they may have decided to see just how low it can go before thay start to exit in a serious way?

    HardToLove
    Nov 21 09:17 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A speculative play on UQM [View instapost]
    CN: Thanks for the background. So I can shoot off my mouth w/o worrying that I might lead you astray? ;-))

    I have hopes that someday I'll know enough to be more actively trading, as well as trying for long-term investments.

    But I feel like it's a long and winding path I travel with no end in sight for the learning yet left.

    HardToLove
    Nov 21 09:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A speculative play on UQM [View instapost]
    P.S. Since success is "spotty", wanted to mention that also I added UQM trading blocks for $1.07 on 11/4 and exited at $1.20-$1.21 on 11/6. These sorts of successes are too few and far between though.

    HardToLove
    Nov 21 04:50 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A speculative play on UQM [View instapost]
    CN: In today's environment, ~$1.10-$1.14 on the upside and $0.90 if it goes wrong.

    If you read my profile you know that I'm new and still learning *and* I'm experimental. Taking queues from what I do is not advisable. My rate of success is, in my own assessment, spotty.

    As example, that stock consultant link shows about equal quality of trade to both up and down sides. Picking one direction here and now is on the risky side.

    Picking the upside may be seen as contrarian because of possible tax selling season, market struggles up while UQM languishes (a negative sign), no near-term catalyst in sight, ...

    But I've watched the bots at play (e.g. trades at 1-minute intervals for 100 to a few hundred shares each time for long periods intra-day) over time and I just got the feeling they're loaded up and may be ready to nudge the price up shortly.

    I've been wrong on that off and on.

    Did do a nice little scarf on (CPST) based on this when I bought in at $0.7825 10/20 and exited at $0.8573 10/22. I generally miss a fair amount of up-side on these sorts of trades as I'm more concerned with reducing the risk than making large returns on stocks that are so volatile. And, as I said, my record is spotty.

    I know I need more discipline on the entry - a rational move does not include entering while conditions that I mentioned above are in effect.

    I added trading shares at $1.12 some time back and am still waiting to close those positions. That's taking much longer than I anticipated to move far enough either way to to cause me to pull the handle. I'm always thinking "opportunity cost" and that delay on what are supposed to be trading blocks aggravates me a bit.

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    Nov 21 04:26 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 381: Nov. 16, 2014 [View instapost]
    Blauschuh: LoL! How appropriate! :-))

    HardToLove
    Nov 20 03:29 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
17,876 Comments
25,607 Likes