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H. T. Love

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  • Axion Power Concentrator 326: Apr. 24 '14: Q4 & EOY 2013 Results & CC; CFO Resigns; David DiGiacinto Joins BoD; PV With Storage Financials; Petersen Worksheet Suggests PIPE Effects Nearing End [View instapost]
    I take no offense John. When you first spotted the correlation between daily short percentage and the heavy selling that was going on, and explained about the delays in conversion to electronic form, it added to my knowledge *and* fit with my understanding of the mechanics of trading going on out of sight.

    But as Quercus, Manatuck et al wound down their selling, the market, IMO, would slowly begin to operate more "normally".

    Since then we've had the more-or-less constant selling from the additional financing rounds and I've (sporadically?) seen the correlations I expect sans the effects of Quercus et al become more common.

    E.g.: high buy % = higher daily short sales, several days of high short % followed by a drop, etc. The "cycles" were apparent on my charts and I had trend lines that highlighted such.

    So I await an extended "normal" period to either confirm or negate my general conclusions. As I've mentioned several times, my view of the effects are with a "normal" trading environment. which we have yet to see for any extended period.

    HardToLove
    Apr 24 08:07 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 326: Apr. 24 '14: Q4 & EOY 2013 Results & CC; CFO Resigns; David DiGiacinto Joins BoD; PV With Storage Financials; Petersen Worksheet Suggests PIPE Effects Nearing End [View instapost]
    Sohkubo: My best assessment is that when buy % is very low, daily short sales tend to be low. Also, after a few days of very high buy %, as we just had, the daily short sales will tend to drop down. When buy % is very high daily short sales are high.

    My belief is this is due to the mechanics of market-making and settlement and order (shares flow) ...

    I did a one-month run of the 8K+ companies on the OTC a while back and the average daily short percentage was above 40%.

    JP discounts and disagrees with my conclusions.

    HardToLove
    Apr 24 07:21 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 325: Apr. 21 '14: Q4 & EOY 2013 Results & CC; CFO Resigns; David DiGiacinto Joins BoD; PV With Storage Financials; Petersen Worksheet Suggests PIPE Effects Nearing End [View instapost]
    RBrun: Yes, ARCA was there. But as MrI noted earlier, they are becoming less aggressive and active. Today's EOD post mentions I'll stop commenting on them unless something unusual pops up and WABR is the more consistently active seller for now.

    Subjective judgement - no hard measurements done.

    HardToLove
    Apr 24 07:17 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 325: Apr. 21 '14: Q4 & EOY 2013 Results & CC; CFO Resigns; David DiGiacinto Joins BoD; PV With Storage Financials; Petersen Worksheet Suggests PIPE Effects Nearing End [View instapost]
    Raleigh: A "Brokeanista".

    HardToLove
    Apr 24 07:14 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 326: Apr. 24 '14: Q4 & EOY 2013 Results & CC; CFO Resigns; David DiGiacinto Joins BoD; PV With Storage Financials; Petersen Worksheet Suggests PIPE Effects Nearing End [View instapost]
    04/24/2014: EOD stuff partially copied from blog (up now).
    # Trds: 46, MinTrSz: 7, MaxTrSz: 25000, Vol: 230043, AvTrSz: 5001
    Min. Pr: 0.1451, Max Pr: 0.1520, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1497
    # Buys, Shares: 8 35810, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1506
    # Sells, Shares: 38 194233, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1496
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:5.42 (15.57% "buys"), DlyShts 35245 (15.32%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 18.15%

    With today's buy percentage down to ~15%, meaning sells were around 85%, I suspect the effort to penetrate $0.15 is nearing an end. If so, we should expect some price weakening. Might take another day or two to appear, but it's the most likely looking outcome for now IMO. Keep in mind the very few trades above $0.15 I detail below – no volume to speak of above $0.15.

    The average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 80% today is $0.1114 vs. $0.1093, $0.1071, $0.1049, $0.1029, $0.1012, $0.0996, $0.0979, $0.0954 and $0.0929 on prior days. 80% of today's VWAP is $0.1198 vs. $0.1196, $0.1180, $0.1148, $0.1075, $0.1100, $0.1154, $0.1313, $0.1351 and $0.1425 on prior days. These are potential prices for the next tranche of shares to the PIPErs.

    Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved -1.63%, 0.66%, 0.15%, 9.09% and -13.40% respectively. Price spread today was 4.76% vs. 2.37%, 7.86%, 7.14%, 13.76%, 19.23%, 21.48%, 7.97%, 14.31% and 8.57% on prior days.

    The low and high of the day was one trade each today. The low was set at the open with a 3.5K trade at $0.1451. The next lowest was $0.1472 with six trades for ~22.6K shares. The high for the day was for 10K at $0.1520 at 12:37. The next highest was $0.1519 in two trades of 2K and 215 shares and then $0.151 with a lot of trades and volume. Using ...

    There were only two “larger” trades (>= 15K) today – both for $0.15 and of sizes 15K and 25K. These went off at 13:10 and 13:08 respectively.

    Yesterday I said “This is starting to look a lot like “consolidation” - a sideways trading pattern for a period, ...”. Today reinforces that assessment IMO. If you consider my comments above are valid about the low and high for the day, it looks even more so.

    Our VWAP of $0.1497, up from yesterday's $0.1495, remains slightly above the rising 50-day SMA of $0.1457. We've now closed above it four of the last six days and below two of those days. But that $0.15 resistance seems to be holding strong, so I don't know how long this situation might maintain. The 50-day will continue to rise for quite some time if price remains in this range. In a week or so we could see consistent closes below the 50-day SMA.

    The newer version's chart pattern broke the “continues to improve. Likely upward movement in price is more strongly suggested now, but we've still not gotten the pattern yet that says it's very likely”. I said yesterday I though we were seeing the chart just showing price stabilizing after a long period of inexorable downward movement. Today seems to support that thesis.

    The usual is in the blog here.
    http://seekingalpha.co...

    HardToLove
    Apr 24 07:01 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 325: Apr. 21 '14: Q4 & EOY 2013 Results & CC; CFO Resigns; David DiGiacinto Joins BoD; PV With Storage Financials; Petersen Worksheet Suggests PIPE Effects Nearing End [View instapost]
    James: Their patents are held by the universty that did the development work and (OTCQB:AXIH) has sub-licensing rights ... worldwide IIRC and they have already done something with an EZ unit (murky memory there - your DD would be needed to confirm).

    The patents include the particulars of how the inputs are made to get the right mix and how the extrusions are done that produce construction-grade strength in the finished units. Might be some patents on the extrusion equipment too, but I'm unsure on that.

    With their recent acquisition of a plastics recycler, they have also become both vertically integrated and a re-seller of recycled plastics.

    So they have assured supply of raw materials and additional revenue stream from the recycler that already sells to customers, regionally IIRC.

    For me, a good long-term bet that will pay handsomely I think.

    HardToLove
    Apr 24 01:31 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 325: Apr. 21 '14: Q4 & EOY 2013 Results & CC; CFO Resigns; David DiGiacinto Joins BoD; PV With Storage Financials; Petersen Worksheet Suggests PIPE Effects Nearing End [View instapost]
    Maya: What it really needs is to be converted to a PbC powered unit. :-))

    HardToLove
    Apr 24 01:23 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 325: Apr. 21 '14: Q4 & EOY 2013 Results & CC; CFO Resigns; David DiGiacinto Joins BoD; PV With Storage Financials; Petersen Worksheet Suggests PIPE Effects Nearing End [View instapost]
    04/23/2014: EOD stuff partially copied from blog (up now).
    # Trds: 40, MinTrSz: 355, MaxTrSz: 28100, Vol: 210873, AvTrSz: 5272
    Min. Pr: 0.1475, Max Pr: 0.1510, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1495
    # Buys, Shares: 28 150355, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1502
    # Sells, Shares: 12 60518, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1478
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 2.48:1 (71.30% "buys"), DlyShts 40700 (19.30%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 67.25%

    The average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 80% today is $0.1093 vs. $0.1071, $0.1049, $0.1029, $0.1012, $0.0996, $0.0979, $0.0954, $0.0929 and $0.0904 on prior days. 80% of today's VWAP is $0.1196 vs. $0.1180, $0.1148, $0.1075, $0.1100, $0.1154, $0.1313, $0.1351, $0.1425 and $0.1485 on prior days. These are potential prices for the next tranche of shares to the PIPErs.

    Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 5.36%, 0.00%, 1.38%, -77.63% and -92.09% respectively. Price spread today was 2.37% vs. 7.86%, 7.14%, 13.76%, 19.23%, 21.48%, 7.97%, 14.31%, 8.57% and 5.71% on prior days.

    The high of the day was one trade, at 14:20, of 28.1K shares for $0.1510. The next highest was $0.1509 in two trades of 5K each and then $0.1505 in one trade at 5K. We finally got a lot of trades and volume at $0.15.

    Today had very low volume but it was fairly consistent throughout the day, unlike yesterday. Price was generally stable, with only a $0.0035 spread.

    There was only one “larger” trade today – 28.1K at $0.1510, the day's high.

    After suggesting that the volume and action yesterday “... supports the possibility that further downward movement is less likely near-term ...” and then listing some reasons, I ended with “... If today's behavior appears again, I suspect some appreciation may occur. But I am suspicious because resistance was seen at $0.15 and the last two trades at EOD were out of character for the trading around them. Add that the last trade was 200 shares ...”.

    Well, today had very low volume again and a very small price range. Even a 71.3% “buy” percentage couldn't provide any volume or price movement. This is starting to look a lot like “consolidation” - a sideways trading pattern for a period, something we've seen many time before here. I should've considered this possibility sooner - when we started bumping up against $0.15. The trick will be guessing what the range of swings will be.

    ARCA was in the market again on both the buy and sell ... They appear to be on track to be a less influential factor, as MrI has noted in the concentrator. However, WABR is supplanting ARCA as the biggest threat to move price lower. They have consistently been relatively aggressive in trying to get shares sold, usually at least matching the best offers and occasionally exceeding it.

    The usual stuff is in the blog here.
    http://seekingalpha.co...

    HardToLove
    Apr 24 12:46 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 325: Apr. 21 '14: Q4 & EOY 2013 Results & CC; CFO Resigns; David DiGiacinto Joins BoD; PV With Storage Financials; Petersen Worksheet Suggests PIPE Effects Nearing End [View instapost]
    James: "Company Reports 182% Increase in Revenues Year-Over-Year" and "First quarter revenues equate to nearly 75% of AXION's 2013 full year revenues. The Company's Engineered Products and Reprocessing Division each contributed approximately 50% of total revenues".

    http://prn.to/1hP5KHS

    I'm holding a small starter position right now, watching *it's* paint dry! ;-))

    HardToLove
    Apr 24 12:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 325: Apr. 21 '14: Q4 & EOY 2013 Results & CC; CFO Resigns; David DiGiacinto Joins BoD; PV With Storage Financials; Petersen Worksheet Suggests PIPE Effects Nearing End [View instapost]
    TB: can't disagree. In the past, but not recently, I've wondered if buyer or seller exhaustion would happen first. With another low-volume day, two out of three now, third day challenging and failing $0.15, and the close almost on the day's low, it's looking like buyers for now.

    Way back when we first did the PIPE deal and I understood the "full ratchet" provisions and how the PIPErs would benefit the more price dropped I stated a couple times that only big news would save pps.

    I think if the PIPErs are confirmed to be gone, that's no longer necessary to "save" price, but will be needed for sustained appreciation, as you suggest.

    HardToLove
    Apr 23 06:54 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 325: Apr. 21 '14: Q4 & EOY 2013 Results & CC; CFO Resigns; David DiGiacinto Joins BoD; PV With Storage Financials; Petersen Worksheet Suggests PIPE Effects Nearing End [View instapost]
    Maya: in traditional TA a former support becomes resistance and vice versa.

    Since we had several touches of $0.15 while we were in the $0.18-$0.15 range I felt there was a decent chance it would provide at least short-term resistance, and have been mentioning inside my blog regularly. But with only an origin and two touches w/o great volume before we broke below it, and with the move off the 200-day SMA, that John surmised might provide support, I had no confidence how strong the resistance would be.

    Still don't because the buy % has made such an "unjustified" move, 4/11 forward: 17.05%, 43.31%, 32.15%, 50.87%, 53.21%, 25.24%, 64.47% and 71.30% today.

    When buy %s like this last couple days are seen and the $0.15 resistance rejects a move above, I now am thinking we won't break above without a move lower and then make another run at it.

    Thankfully, since today had no blatant manipulations, as was seen over the last three(?) days, I can have a bit more confidence with a high and/or close that was actually rational in light of the trades that we had today.

    Today's close 1/100th of a penny above the low foretells near-term action I think. The 200-day SMA has another six days of very slow deterioration and will remain, for all intents and purposes, essentially flat if pps remains in the current range, and I believe we'll likely head there again, $0.1288 - call it $0.13 - today where we'll find out if it offers support again.

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    Apr 23 06:45 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 325: Apr. 21 '14: Q4 & EOY 2013 Results & CC; CFO Resigns; David DiGiacinto Joins BoD; PV With Storage Financials; Petersen Worksheet Suggests PIPE Effects Nearing End [View instapost]
    04/22/2014: EOD stuff partially copied from blog (up now).
    # Trds: 99, MinTrSz: 60, MaxTrSz: 93850, Vol: 942459, AvTrSz: 9520
    Min. Pr: 0.1400, Max Pr: 0.1510, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1475
    # Buys, Shares: 61 607589, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1488
    # Sells, Shares: 38 334870, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1450
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1.81:1 (64.47% "buys"), DlyShts 514439 (54.58%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 153.62%

    The average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 80% today is $0.1071 vs. $0.1049, $0.1029, $0.1012, $0.0996, $0.0979, $0.0954, $0.0929, $0.0904 and $0.0884 on prior days. 80% of today's VWAP is $0.1180 vs. $0.1148, $0.1075, $0.1100, $0.1154, $0.1313, $0.1351, $0.1425, $0.1485 and $0.1397 on prior days. These are potential prices for the next tranche of shares to the PIPErs.

    Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 0.00%, 0.67%, 2.74%, 115.71% and 493.22% respectively. Price spread today was 7.86% vs. 7.14%, 13.76%, 19.23%, 21.48%, 7.97%, 14.31%, 8.57% 5.71% and 9.40% on prior days.

    The low of the day was one trade, at 11:40, of 500 shares for $0.1400. The next lowest was $0.1410 that had reasonable volume in four trades and were within range of other trades. Using $0.1410 as the low would put the movement of the low at 0.71% and the spread at 7.09%.

    Today had very low volume early and we didn't see any real volume and frequency of trades begin until around 14:30. Through 12:24 only 21.83% of the days volume traded. Price generally weakened, but only around 1/2 penny during this period. There were no more trades until 14:36.

    At that point the flood gates opened with trading beginning at a VWAP of $0.147 for the period measured, well improved from the VWAP of $0.1412 for the period ending at 12:24. The period ending at 15:55 had a VWAP of $0.1443 on ~8.2% of the day's volume.

    The last two trades of the day look suspicious to me – they were for $0.1509 and $0.151 for a 10K and 200 share trade. The last trade prior to those two was $0.1450 and the trades prior to that were mixed at $0.1425 to $0.1450. My guess is that the two trades at 15:56 were designed to show a close above the $0.15 resistance.

    The larger trades (>= 15K) occurred on 9 of the 99 trades, 9.09% (same percentage second consecutive day!). These 340,280 shares were 36.11% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1486. 6 of these trades ...

    The other 90 trades, 90.91% of the day's trades, traded 602,179 shares, 63.89% of the days volume. The VWAP was $0.1468. 55 trades, ...

    ... Today's action supports the possibility that further downward movement is less likely near-term. Even ignoring those two suspicious trades, we had higher volume with a higher VWAP and a higher close. Some of the traditional TA oscillators have begun to improve as well. ...

    Yesterday produced a “gravestone doji” candlestick ... Looking critically at the action, only some of my non-traditional metrics, like VWAP and inflection point calculations, suggest that we had a reversal up from our recent down trend. Our price range was predominately within the prior day's, even retaining those two suspicious EOD trades, exceeding yesterday's high by only 1/10th of a penny.

    So I am suspicious, but can't decide that we won't see upward movement ... or downward movement.

    The usual stuff in the blog here.
    http://seekingalpha.co...

    HardToLove
    Apr 23 01:37 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 325: Apr. 21 '14: Q4 & EOY 2013 Results & CC; CFO Resigns; David DiGiacinto Joins BoD; PV With Storage Financials; Petersen Worksheet Suggests PIPE Effects Nearing End [View instapost]
    Iindelco: With DOE intending to restart the support program and "The program has about $16 billion in authorized funds it has yet to disburse".

    We should end up with a veritable graveyard of failed government EV programs just a few more years from now.

    This just demonstrates once more why unlimited taxing and deficit-spending capability ought to be curtailed.

    Yes, it demonstrates other things too. But if funds are curtailed, so are stupid (hopefully) activities.

    HardToLove
    Apr 23 01:13 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 325: Apr. 21 '14: Q4 & EOY 2013 Results & CC; CFO Resigns; David DiGiacinto Joins BoD; PV With Storage Financials; Petersen Worksheet Suggests PIPE Effects Nearing End [View instapost]
    Golly Froggey! He left out an import benefit: "... and increase revenues and profits from what used to be a 100% cost and compliance issue".

    HardToLove
    Apr 23 10:56 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 325: Apr. 21 '14: Q4 & EOY 2013 Results & CC; CFO Resigns; David DiGiacinto Joins BoD; PV With Storage Financials; Petersen Worksheet Suggests PIPE Effects Nearing End [View instapost]
    Maya: This A.M. I see that $0.15 *is* acting as resistance. I (adjusts TFH) see exactly two trades at 15:56 way above the prior trades: $0.1509 x 10K and $0.151 x 200 shares.

    My believe that the pews right now are being populated by folks being led with manipulated action.

    (removing TFH). But it all looks good on the traditional TA charts - time to get in there!

    HardToLove
    Apr 23 10:46 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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