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H. T. Love

 
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  • QuickChat #273, August 15 2014 [View instapost]
    One thing to keep in mind is the difference in the two Axions. AXIH has cash flowing somewhat and the capital raise is ostensibly not to keep the doors open, but to convert the Zanesville facility to produce higher-margin product according to management.

    I don't think this solves all problems, but if their recent proclamation at analysts' CC that they would be shipping a lot of containers in Q3 and Q4 is reliable, then they should certainly be on an upswing as to revenues.

    I'm just holding steady - small speculative positions of a couple thousand shares each - and hoping the typical over-reaction occurs and I can get some more around $0.40. I was thinking $0.50 might be good until the initial filing for the split appeared.

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    Sep 30 12:05 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #273, August 15 2014 [View instapost]
    Wisdom and humor wrapped in a succinct statement! Doesn't get much better than that.

    All I would add is that if one is already humble, it gives ... "inferiority complex" as a bonus. :-((

    HardToLove
    Sep 30 11:55 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 369 Sep. 28 '14: BOD Approves 50:1 Rev. Split; EPower & Axion Present At The Battery Show; 10-Q For Q1 2014; S-1 For $15MM Share Issuance [View instapost]
    09/29/2014: EOD stuff partially copied from blog (up now).
    # Trds: 105, MinTrSz: 1, MaxTrSz: 6000, Vol: 27720, AvTrSz: 264
    Min. Pr: 3.1000, Max Pr: 3.5200, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 3.4327
    # Buys, Shares: 40 17427, VW Avg Buy Pr: 3.4520
    # Sells, Shares: 64 10253, VW Avg Sell Pr: 3.4000
    # Unkn, Shares: 1 40, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 3.3960
    Buy:Sell 1.70:1 (62.87% "buys"), DlyShts 11259 (40.62), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 109.81%

    There were 1,293 missing FINRA shares which contained short sales. I had updated the trade volume assuming no additional shorts and corrected everything else when the final data arrived. I was suspecting around 300 short shares would appear and the actual was 357, 27.61% of the missing volume. This moved short volume from 10,902 to 11,259 and percentage from 39.33% to 40.62%. There were no exempts reported.

    Today my newer inflection-point readings flipped from all periods weaker to all less weak. It's not surprising when there's a combination ...

    Volume was again down, -23.34% today, but was still good volume at 27.72K (1.386K pre-split) shares. Our pattern of high volume bringing lower VWAPs, which looked like it had returned yesterday, is broken again as we got a +2.64% VWAP improvement with “high” volume. Is it just because we're in the “flat-to-rising” period or something else? I don't know. But this is three of four days with high volume and improved VWAPs.

    Here's VWAPs from 9/16 forward: $3.7423, ...

    The larger trades continued a general decline in most metrics. Maximum trade size did improve to 6K (one buy for $3.50) after having dropped from 5K to 2K in the two prior days. Larger trades percentage of volume popped back up to 61.03%, thanks to that 6K (300K pre-split equivalent) boomer, ...

    Bids were reasonably strong and active today as we saw larger bids with an aggregate 4K at various prices by 10:58 and another ...

    The offers were pretty stout with larger offers at various prices totaling 7.4K at various prices by 09:42, including a 4K from BKMM. Another 600 was added by ETRF at 11:44 and ...

    Buy and short percentage both increased today, and more substantially than yesterday. We saw 62.9% buys vs. 47.9% and daily short of 40.62% vs. 34.73%.

    For the last eight days buy percentage movements ...

    The EOD paint crew had tougher luck today, managing to move the close only from $3.50 (which was the majority of today's trading BTW) at 15:47 to $3.51, a penny off the day's high.

    Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved -0.32%, 0.57%, 02.64%, -23.34% and -10.34% respectively. Price spread today was 13.55% vs. 12.54%, 9.28%, 7.06%, 2.86%, 11.59%, 6.67%, 5.26%, 19.71% and 5.14% on prior days.

    All the usual is in the blog here.
    http://seekingalpha.co...

    HardToLove
    Sep 30 09:33 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 369 Sep. 28 '14: BOD Approves 50:1 Rev. Split; EPower & Axion Present At The Battery Show; 10-Q For Q1 2014; S-1 For $15MM Share Issuance [View instapost]
    Abcd9876: Could be a combo of the high vol, buy % and rising short % over the last few days and we are in a week which has in the past shown "flat to rising" price action.

    HardToLove
    Sep 29 01:09 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 368 Sep. 25 '14: BOD Approves 50:1 Rev. Split; EPower & Axion Present At The Battery Show; 10-Q For Q1 2014; S-1 For $15MM Share Issuance [View instapost]
    LT: Could be, but we know from a comment a couple APCs back that some were trades through Trade King by an infrequent poster.

    From what I've observed, I don't thing HFTers are playing here though - they need good volume all the time. I do recognize them on other stocks, CPST being one where they are often seen and sometime UQM. Usually they are not the actual trades that signal they are there, but a rapid injection and withdrawal of bids and/or offers for some period. On the market depth (L2?) screen this generates a rapid changing of the color bands.

    After some seconds the rapid changing stops. The bids and offers I've seen during these periods are usually the "standard" lot too.

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    Sep 28 07:19 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A speculative play on UQM [View instapost]
    I saw the picture but I didn't have any memory of how the motors looked.

    HardToLove
    Sep 28 06:58 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A speculative play on UQM [View instapost]
    I'd forgotten all about that! Maybe I am getting overloaded.

    HardToLove
    Sep 28 06:57 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A speculative play on UQM [View instapost]
    I ran a quick percent of daily shorts, which will *not* correlate well with the semi-monthly reports, just to see if anything stood out. The month averaged 29.08%, lower but not too far from what I consider normal averages based on a larger run on 8K+ OTC stocks a couple years back. Knowing that short percentage *may* be directionally correlated with buy percentage I suspect we didn't see a short squeeze where I guess the covering shorts would be hitting the offer a lot.

    The were a couple days though - 9/16 with 41% short, 9/24 with 49%, 9/25 with 47% and 9/26 with 57%. The first two where down days and the last two up days.

    I'm thinking that covering occurred on days when percentage was low, if they did any covering this month. As the downdraft spooked everyone out before the big rebound, sit down there on low bids and let scared sellers give you the shares near the lows.

    Most shorters are very skillful at covering without driving price up I think. Generally a squeeze will come when there's a big catalyst that makes the risk very high that a long and large run up is likely. I think that's the only time they might consider chasing the price up.

    I could run for the period mentioned too to see if anything stand out if you think it worthwhile. Or any other period you'd think might be enlightening.

    But do keep in mind I know from hard experience sevral years back that the percentages we see daily don't have any linkage to the semi-monthly reporting, unless the last few days and T+3 normal settlement are interacting to affect those semi-monthly totals. I'm still investigat that.

    In ignorance, as always,
    HrdToLove
    Sep 27 07:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A speculative play on UQM [View instapost]
    I went snooping on their site but couldn't find any motors named.

    Probably would need to contact them to find out whose motor is used.

    HardToLove
    Sep 27 06:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A speculative play on UQM [View instapost]
    Pretty good interview, although his closing answers about private passenger going electric might be pretty far out in this country. I'm suspecting hybrid for flexibility will be the nearer step.

    HardToLove
    Sep 27 06:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A speculative play on UQM [View instapost]
    D lane: Apologies for not responding sooner - having a little trouble keeping up.

    I wonder if the bill signed was the California initiative that UQM had said was delayed. If so, let's hope it has the impact expected.

    CA has been doing a lot with trucks for quite a long time around the harbors and ports. Many years ago CPST had a US1 truck that was going to "save the world", and maybe CPST along with. Silence since although we know it was built and have videos of it.

    Most of the upgrades were converts to 2010-compliant, or later engines and conversion to NG trucks.

    I think this is the first major attempt in the state at going electric, which would also do well with drayage around the ports and harbors since those are usually "short" runs.

    On the buses, I'm hopeful that BYD(?) (Chinese owned) doesn't take most of the funds. They made big promises on some early stuff that included local manufacturing, etc. that got them their earlier contracts. If they have a foothold already it could be tough to shake them loose.

    HardToLove
    Sep 27 06:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 368 Sep. 25 '14: BOD Approves 50:1 Rev. Split; EPower & Axion Present At The Battery Show; 10-Q For Q1 2014; S-1 For $15MM Share Issuance [View instapost]
    09/26/2014: EOD stuff partially copied from blog (up now).
    # Trds: 204, MinTrSz: 1, MaxTrSz: 2000, Vol: 36161, AvTrSz: 177
    Min. Pr: 3.1101, Max Pr: 3.5000, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 3.3443
    # Buys, Shares: 59 17305, VW Avg Buy Pr: 3.3643
    # Sells, Shares: 140 17856, VW Avg Sell Pr: 3.3312
    # Unkn, Shares: 5 1000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 3.2310
    Buy:Sell 1:1.03 (47.86% "buys"), DlyShts 12113 (33.50%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 67.84%

    Everything related daily short sales is subject to (substantial?) revision because FINRA data is missing 1,461 shares of volume, which will be corrected Monday morning. Additional short sales counts in triple digits (500ish?) would not be surprising.

    Yesterday, while touching on my newer inflection-point readings, I said “We're mixed on the one-day change, but overall the last four days suggest less weakening of the indications. HOWEVER, the three short periods today are showing less robustness – something to give one pause”. Considering the volume, maybe I shouldn't have suggested a pause – VWAP dropped -7.16% today. One of these days I have to start having more confidence in these things. Today, with decent volume, all six periods are showing increasing weakness.

    Well, looks like things are back to normal. Today volume was down 26.45% but was still high volume at 36.16K (1,808,050 pre-split shares). I had noted yesterday that our pattern was broken because we had two consecutive high-volume days and price did not tank. In fact VWAP was up 00.79% after the prior day's +0.22% gain.

    Today VWAP is down -07.16% - back to normal. Here's VWAPs from 9/15 forward: $3.8236, $3.7423, $3.8828, $3.8700, $3.6676, $3.5565, $3.5661, $3.5740, $3.6023 and $3.3443.

    The larger trades, yesterday accounting for 81.10% of a high-volume day, were today down in all of percentage of trading volume, maximum size and VWAP. The maximum trade size dropped from 5K to 2K, the larger trades percentage of volume dropped to 45.74% and the VWAP dropped from $3.6059 to $3.4025 (-5.64%).

    In contrast to yesterday's strength in bids, and less strength in offers, today had only about 3.5K in aggregate “larger” bids in place through ten o'clock. Offers had 2.2K in aggregate in larger offers. Price points of both the bids and offers were generally lower than yesterday. We didn't see larger bids or offers generally appearing as the day progressed like we did yesterday.

    The EOD paint crew had better luck today, managing to move the close from $3.27 at 15:57 to $3.50, the day's high.

    Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved -9.85%, -7.16%, -07.16%, -26.45% and -22.31% respectively. Price spread today was 12.54% vs. 9.28%, 7.06%, 2.86%, 11.59%, 6.67%, 5.26%, 19.71%, 5.14% and 22.77% on prior days.

    The larger trades (>= 500) occurred on 15 of the 204 trades, 7.35%. These 16,540 shares were 45.74% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $3.4025. 7 of the larger trades, 46.67%, ...

    The other 189 trades, 92.65% of the day's trades, traded 19,621 shares, 54.26% of the days volume. The VWAP was $3.2952. 52 trades, 27.51% ...

    The usual is in the blog here.
    http://seekingalpha.co...

    HardToLove
    Sep 27 03:57 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 368 Sep. 25 '14: BOD Approves 50:1 Rev. Split; EPower & Axion Present At The Battery Show; 10-Q For Q1 2014; S-1 For $15MM Share Issuance [View instapost]
    Clarification: "them" is the small odd lot trades, < 100 shares.

    HardToLove
    Sep 27 01:51 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 368 Sep. 25 '14: BOD Approves 50:1 Rev. Split; EPower & Axion Present At The Battery Show; 10-Q For Q1 2014; S-1 For $15MM Share Issuance [View instapost]
    D-Inv: What bothers me about them is not that they exist, but that they are not commonly reported consistently and are excluded from being used in certain metrics.

    E.g. ETrade's Time & Sales" panel do not show them while the market depth does. They are not permitted to be cited as the ... was it "close" or low? I forget which.

    FINRA did not include them on the REG SHO EOD summary files. In working with them on another issue over some months last year I got them to include them (they had to check with legal and legal OK'd it). Their normal EOD still doesn't get them, but the updated file each morning does include them. SURPRISE: there's often a substantial percentage of those shares that are short sales!

    The new system, which was supposed to be installed this summer, was supposed to eliminate the need for the update run the next morning. Not installed yet.

    Some days they account for much more than the ~4% of volume like they did today.

    Last, for me it's a matter of why should they be treated differently? It just provides another small piece of obfuscation that can be detrimental to the average retail investor or trader. I ask the question assuming that computers really are in widespread use now.

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    Sep 27 01:19 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #273, August 15 2014 [View instapost]
    Thanks WWT. It's nice to have some things confirmed that have for a long time been suspected.

    HardToLove
    Sep 27 01:03 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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