Seeking Alpha

H. T. Love

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  • Axion Power Concentrator 324: Apr. 17 '14: Q4 & EOY 2013 Results & CC; CFO Resigns; David DiGiacinto Joins BoD; PV With Storage Financials; Petersen Worksheet Suggests PIPE Effects Nearing End [View instapost]
    Crowd sourced moderation is available everywhere. I had hoped that we were better than that.

    Maybe that's why the concentrators fell out of the # 1 spot for instablogs.

    I guess there's no need for APH to try and do it anymore.

    Even long-time participants whose views and concerns weren't ... liked have been denigrated.

    Enlarged egos, arrogance, intolerance, impatience, ... get my goat.

    Since I make it a practice to not waste my time and energy on fruitless endeavors and not let other people's problems become mine, I have nothing more to say.

    I know it doesn't matter to those that are "more right".

    HardToLove
    Apr 21 05:28 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 324: Apr. 17 '14: Q4 & EOY 2013 Results & CC; CFO Resigns; David DiGiacinto Joins BoD; PV With Storage Financials; Petersen Worksheet Suggests PIPE Effects Nearing End [View instapost]
    Edmund: Getting decidedly mean-spirited?

    HardToLove
    Apr 20 06:24 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 324: Apr. 17 '14: Q4 & EOY 2013 Results & CC; CFO Resigns; David DiGiacinto Joins BoD; PV With Storage Financials; Petersen Worksheet Suggests PIPE Effects Nearing End [View instapost]
    Larry: A buy? Offers at $0.137 occurred 10:42-11:22 and none thereafter. Lower offers, down to $0.133 even, also occurred during that time. None that low thereafter either. Bids at $0.137 occurred from 11:22 through 12:18 EDT, off and on. I looged one from ATDF for 5K at 11:48. If that was yours, the 1K reduced the "present" to 4K and it wouldn't normally appear on the national electronic market thereafter I guess. From that point on your broker's OTC market-making desk, if they have one, would have to do the work to see that you could fill. If it's like my experience, they don't like to work very hard, at least for small orders.

    By 12:18 the bid had dropped to $0.135 and if anyone was working your order they should have been able to engineer a fill for you if they wanted to.

    On ETrade, when I've gotten such small fills they have refunded the trading fess when I called and requested it. But I do >= 30/month so maybe that's something "special", I don't know. But a phone call might be worthwhile.

    By 12:50 bids were back up to $0.138 and rose until they broke lower again at 15:20 and then quickly started rising again. So there was another window there where someone could've engineered a fill for you. There were no bids or offers at $0.137 though. And no offers lower at that time that I caught.

    I had 24 "peeks" on the bid side, so I didn't miss *too* much I think. When you talk to your broker they'll probably trot out the usual excuses about the OTC MMS have a lot of leeway, no order hit internal that was an exact match on price and quantity, ...

    The basic problem, other than the folks servicing us not that interested in service, was that 1K take off your order.

    49600 shares traded at that price:
    01500 10:42:19
    01100 11:12:22
    05000 11:20:30
    05000 11:20:35
    05000 11:21:05
    01000 11:21:25
    05000 11:22:19
    08000 12:18:39
    05000 12:18:41
    12000 13:06:05
    01000 15:20:53

    So, depending on when you put your order in, ISTM you had a decent chance at a fill. The first 7 were "buys", the last four were "sells".

    HardToLove
    Apr 20 06:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • AXPW Fails-To-Deliver Charts 2/11/2013 [View instapost]
    Updated charts to latest available data, end of March 2014.

    As before, fails generally remain at low levels. In the raw data there were some changes that could probably be tied back to specific trades on specific days. E.g. I noted some maximum trades sizes of >= 100K in time frames when we saw fails "pop" up on the chart.

    02/13 108000
    02/14 180000
    02/18 099000
    02/19 110000
    02/20 080000
    02/21 125000
    02/24 110000

    Tying this back to JP's tracking I wonder if that's when we saw some early conversions by the pipers. Maybe even the reason?

    I'd have to go check the dates and it doesn't seem worthwhile at this juncture for what we might learn from it.

    Note that some later similar large maximum trades did *not* result in fails. We could speculate that the early conversions loaded the PIPers for bear this time, so they actually had what they sold, vs. before when they were "naked shorts" at the time.

    Someone could argue they weren't "naked shorts", because the risk of getting fitted for orange jump suits is too high for the potential gain. Could be, could be. They could also argue that the shares were issued and just hadn't been converted to electronic form at the time they were sold. Could be, could be.

    Might a market-maker have satisified a big sell order and then needed several days to get the covering buys done, thereby causing the fails and being naked short, which is *not* in violation of SEC rules because MMs are exempt from Reg SHO requirements to borrow before selling. They can create "phantom shares" as need to meet their goals. Could be, could be.

    Well, nothing more.

    HardToLove
    Apr 19 11:22 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 324: Apr. 17 '14: Q4 & EOY 2013 Results & CC; CFO Resigns; David DiGiacinto Joins BoD; PV With Storage Financials; Petersen Worksheet Suggests PIPE Effects Nearing End [View instapost]
    Edmund: What if a "herd of weenies" came with a "herd of buns" and "muster", relish, ...

    Or come to think of a day at the beach, a "herd of buns" might suffice.

    HardToLove
    Apr 19 08:13 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 324: Apr. 17 '14: Q4 & EOY 2013 Results & CC; CFO Resigns; David DiGiacinto Joins BoD; PV With Storage Financials; Petersen Worksheet Suggests PIPE Effects Nearing End [View instapost]
    User: Your post on the effort reminds me of Albert's definition of insanity - doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.

    Heh. I guess it's not so painful as to induce learning when you're doing it with OPM.

    The worst part, I guess, is that the easy access to OPM allows (nay, induces?) them to export their ignorance and indolence to the populace and the economy as a whole by giving OPM to others, "deserving" or not, constitutional or not.

    Ah, the fruits of the slippery slope, begun with a small income tax on the "wealthiest only", appears in full bloom these last decades. That's when the first seeds of an infinite income were sown.

    HardToLove
    Apr 19 07:02 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 324: Apr. 17 '14: Q4 & EOY 2013 Results & CC; CFO Resigns; David DiGiacinto Joins BoD; PV With Storage Financials; Petersen Worksheet Suggests PIPE Effects Nearing End [View instapost]
    Stefan: For those of us that have been a long time in learning about the technology, capabilities and possibilities, you're right.

    But I don't believe the blog is meant for those like us.

    I suspect it's an early effort at providing some overview of the company, product and possibilities for those who are not yet aware. That's my sense on the series thus far.

    Don't forget what the web site used to look like. I think there's a slow effort underway towards making it "better". The blog is probably part of that. As time and resources are available we might see further improvement - maybe an "applications" page with results and tech data, etc.

    Remember, Axion is in the battery industry where all happens at breakneck speed. </snark>

    For now I'm just glad to see the effort underway and don't feel too critical - I assume a learning curve among other impediments.

    Having said all that, I'm with Rick and others in thinking that long ago they could at least have had some kind of tech specs available on the site for knowledgeable folks to peek at. Even some "generic" information that just whets one's appetite would've been useful I think.

    I don't know - maybe publishing useful specs gives some advantage to potential competitors though? A target to shoot at, at a minimum. Don't know that would be terribly useful to a competitor though unless they wanted to compete on a negative basis: "Our battery stores 1 Kwh and theirs only stores 0.5 Kwh".

    Like I say, I don't know.

    HardToLove
    Apr 19 06:44 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 324: Apr. 17 '14: Q4 & EOY 2013 Results & CC; CFO Resigns; David DiGiacinto Joins BoD; PV With Storage Financials; Petersen Worksheet Suggests PIPE Effects Nearing End [View instapost]
    04/17/2014: EOD stuff partially copied from blog (up now).
    # Trds: 102, MinTrSz: 1000, MaxTrSz: 129400, Vol: 917461, AvTrSz: 8995
    Min. Pr: 0.1301, Max Pr: 0.1480, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1344
    # Buys, Shares: 60 488216, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1378
    # Sells, Shares: 40 353945, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1367
    # Unkn, Shares: 2 52300, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.1448
    Buy:Sell 1.38:1 (53.21% "buys"), DlyShts 370716 (40.41%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 104.74%

    The average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 80% today is $0.1029 vs. $0.1012, $0.0996, $0.0979, $0.0954, $0.0929, $0.0904, $0.0884, $0.0865 and $0.0848 on prior days. 80% of today's VWAP is $0.1075 vs. $0.1100, $0.1154, $0.1313, $0.1351, $0.1425, $0.1485, $0.1397, $0.1468 and $0.1505 on prior days. These are potential prices for the next tranche of shares to the PIPErs.

    Interesting that the “ average of the lowest 20 VWAPs ...” and “ 80% of today's VWAP is ...” are going in opposite directions. May not matter if PIPErs really are about paid off.

    Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 0.08%, -4.52%, -2.30%, -33.46% and -39.10% respectively. Price spread today was 13.76% vs. 19.23%, 21.48%, 7.97%, 14.31%, 8.57% 5.71%, 9.40%, 7.78% and 11.30% on prior days.

    The high of the day was one trade, midday, of 1K shares for $0.1480. The next high was also 1K at $0.1470, also midday. Nothing suspicious about them, but ... There was a single trade at the open that set the day's low – 1K @ $0.1301. The next lowest was $0.1306 for 10K. Again, I suspect nothing foul about these, but ...

    The larger trades (>= 15K) occurred on only 10 of the 102 trades, 9.80%. These 373,330 shares were 40.69% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1381. 5 of these trades, ...

    The other 92 trades, 90.20% of the day's trades, traded 544,131 shares, 59.31% of the days volume. The VWAP was $0.1373. 55 trades, ...

    AS John suggested, the 200-day SMA appears to be providing support, now for the second consecutive day. Unfortunately, that average is going to continue to drop ... Wednesday we closed below the 50-day SMA, $0.1422, and also had a VWAP of $0.1375 below it, after having traded above it Tuesday when the 50-day SMA was $0.142, when the close was $0.145 and the VWAP was $0.1442 ...

    Contrary to yesterday, when we had a constant price weakening throughout the day, we had strengthening throughout the day, seen in the trading breakdown by time. I suspect this was due to ARCA playing a different game today, described below. In a nutshell, the other aggressive players on the sell side were afforded some relief by ARCA's behavior and they were able to hold the offers higher longer than when ARCA is doing it's normal stuff ...

    The difference today, I realized, was that rather than battling the other sellers tit-for-tat and driving offers almost inexorably lower, or popping in and out frequently having the same effect, ARCA was doing a hit-and-run and wait operation. They were more patient today, allowing offers to rise higher before they hit again. Then they would retreat and wait again.

    I think this is why we didn't see the late-day weakness. The buyers were uncertain about the coming price action and willing to “pay up” JIC. And the sellers realized they could be actually raising offers with some success. This was aided by the fact that NITE and ATDF were somewhat less aggressive than usual.

    ... Our buy percentage showed a small improvement to 53.2% while VWAP weakened for the sixth consecutive day to $0.1344. If there's still PIPEr shares being dispensed, they were likely at a cost of $0.08xx and substantial profit is still available on them for a long way down yet.

    What I suggested two days ago still applies I think - regardless of technical items, we've got some more movement down in our near-term future. The traditional TA stuff doesn't yet contradict this.

    Our low broke the string of four consecutive lower lows with a 1/100th penny improvement today. We have the fifth consecutive day of lower highs, six straight lower for VWAPs. Our close was higher. Volume was lower on a lower VWAP, offering hope that the trend lower may approaching it's end.

    An interesting, but maybe useless, note is that when the day's high of $0.148 was hit on an aggregate 472K shares, the buy percentage at that point was 76.78%, 361,945 shares. From that point forward, on aggregate volume of ~445K shares, the buys were only ~126.3K, 28.35%. This does give a good insight into what happens as price rises in our current environment. We have a different kind of “late-day weakness”.

    The high today, a single 1K trade at that price, approached, but did not touch, what was formerly a support at $0.15 ...

    The usual in the blog here.
    http://seekingalpha.co...

    HardToLove
    Apr 18 06:45 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #270, April 2, 2014 [View instapost]
    D.G.: Depressing. I'm tempted to click the who's hiring button in an attempt to offset the depression. But I'm afraid that would further depress me either via reduced openings or few folks qualifying.

    Oh well.

    HardToLove
    Apr 18 12:54 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 324: Apr. 17 '14: Q4 & EOY 2013 Results & CC; CFO Resigns; David DiGiacinto Joins BoD; PV With Storage Financials; Petersen Worksheet Suggests PIPE Effects Nearing End [View instapost]
    iindelco: great find. I really like "Over 2,000 charge-discharge cycles at 100 percent DOD have been demonstrated".

    Since the more normal operation would be partial charges and discharges, I wonder how much longer it can *really* go.

    HardToLove
    Apr 18 09:10 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 324: Apr. 17 '14: Q4 & EOY 2013 Results & CC; CFO Resigns; David DiGiacinto Joins BoD; PV With Storage Financials; Petersen Worksheet Suggests PIPE Effects Nearing End [View instapost]
    Wtb: I suspect it's because (CPST) doens't make those things. It does only the micro-turbines and is used in conjunction with many different combination of those things, as engineered by the project managers.

    For micro-turbines, IIRC, Capstone has something like 83% of the market.

    I'm suspecting they follow the "do one thing and do it well" mantra now, after some early missteps, IMO.

    HardToLove
    Apr 18 08:58 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 324: Apr. 17 '14: Q4 & EOY 2013 Results & CC; CFO Resigns; David DiGiacinto Joins BoD; PV With Storage Financials; Petersen Worksheet Suggests PIPE Effects Nearing End [View instapost]
    Jpau: LoL! Good one. Started my day with a laugh.

    HardToLove
    Apr 18 08:51 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #270, April 2, 2014 [View instapost]
    I miss my 8-track player.

    HardToLove
    Apr 17 03:42 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 324: Apr. 17 '14: Q4 & EOY 2013 Results & CC; CFO Resigns; David DiGiacinto Joins BoD; PV With Storage Financials; Petersen Worksheet Suggests PIPE Effects Nearing End [View instapost]
    And it really was an abyss compared to the $0.0001 spread we've seen battled over in the past many times, including recently.

    That 1/100th spread can be the worst - often *extended* periods where both sides are apparently in a hopium-induced coma as there's no Winken, Blinken or Nod observed.

    HardToLove
    Apr 17 01:31 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 324: Apr. 17 '14: Q4 & EOY 2013 Results & CC; CFO Resigns; David DiGiacinto Joins BoD; PV With Storage Financials; Petersen Worksheet Suggests PIPE Effects Nearing End [View instapost]
    Maya: Just had a hawk plow into my window. Looked out and we was healthy but dazed. We cut down a tree there last year and a few bids have mistaken the reflection for a landing area.

    I think I'll transplant a cedar over there to protect them.

    Last night heard a very plaintive sound - a lone goose that had lost the flock zoomed by in a high-speed low-level pass honking for his fellows.

    HardToLove
    Apr 17 11:48 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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