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H. T. Love

 
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  • Update: Capstone Turbine Snags Major New Order, Buy Recommendation Reiterated [View article]
    SHB: Their costs may not be as onerous a burden as you think. "Low touch" product with little labor per unit of revenue (excluding management, of course). The high cost of being in California is probably offset almost completely by the state incentives they get for having "green jobs" in CA and maybe other preferential treatment.

    The topic of moving off-shore has been raised several times in the past and management has emphatically repeated that the benefit is too small to make it worth serious consideration.

    How much credibility one wants to give that view ...

    Having said all that, the situation should be even better now that energy costs here are going through the floor for at least a few years (presuming that NG and/or electricity, from gas turbines mostly(?) or from renewables is the primary source) is their energy consumption, and that of their suppliers.

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    Dec 28, 2014. 07:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Capstone Turbine Snags Major New Order, Buy Recommendation Reiterated [View article]
    As to "most heavily shorted", IMO doesn't matter much when the company is executing well and/or investor confidence remains high. It becomes a significant drag when the company doesn't do well though.

    "The only way the price makes sense is if a lot of the backlog is really suspect. In that case management has a lot more to worry about than their bonuses."

    In a way, I think short positions can have effect a lot like a commodity market with a supply and demand imbalance. Every shorted share is an increase in supply with the "producer cost" quite low. It's easy to get a "glut" of (phantom) shares feeding into a market that can't absorb the added supply, especially when the underlying is performing poorly.

    From this perspective, it might make sense.

    When a company is doing well, it's probably more like the gold commodity - doesn't lose a lot of value quickly most times. Might drift a bit lower or just rise a bit less quickly.

    Regardless, a pop won't really turn into a good long-term investment until the "value investor" decides to enter. That's likely to be when they decide that there's no way the company can possibly miss becoming EBIDTA profitable very soon.

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    Dec 28, 2014. 07:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Capstone Turbine Snags Major New Order, Buy Recommendation Reiterated [View article]
    "Hard to believe that things can be this bad for CPST"

    LoL! Not for me. I've been very long the stock in the deep, dark and dim past when pps has been lower.

    I suspect that management has run out of the rope of bolstering confidence with "just around the corner" forecasts and then failing to deliver on the expectations they created. Coupled with new issuance to fund operations (and management salary and bonuses) when pps was at relatively higher prices, I think the market is completely cynical now and has moved to Missouri - the "Show Me" state.

    For the first time in a long while, the latest short position report shows a noticeable increase in short positions:

    Short Report 12/15/14 +1,357,582 +2.81%
    Settle Date | Sht Interest | % Ch| AvgDlyVol | Day2Cvr
    12/15/2014 | 49,671,561 | 2.81 | 2,590,804 | 19.17

    Going back through the 6/30 report the changes were either negative or less than 1% positive moves (only two).

    To see that +2.81% change in short position with pps in the range it's in now says that the bears have either stopped covering buys or may be actually increasing their short positions. It's hard to know which because the reported values may include some (large?) portion of the daily short sales around the closing date that are nothing more than normal market-maker short sales that are generally netted out within a couple days at most.

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    Dec 28, 2014. 09:33 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 384: Dec. 17, 2014 [View instapost]
    Rugged: Drat! I just looked at the filing again and you seem to be right, if I understand it correctly. Section 3.3.2.1, "Further Cashless Exercise of B Warrants upon Market Price Less than $3.25 per Share. In addition to the rights set forth in Section 3.3.2 above, on any day, commencing on the 121st day subsequent to the date hereof through the 15 month anniversary of the date hereof, the Market Price (as defined below) is less than $3.25 ... elect instead to receive upon such exercise the "net number" of shares of Common Stock (the "Market Price Net Number") determined according to the following formula (the "Market Price Cashless Exercise"): ...".

    HardToLove
    Dec 28, 2014. 09:01 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 384: Dec. 17, 2014 [View instapost]
    12/26/2014: EOD stuff partially copied from blog (up now).
    # Trds: 111, MinTrSz: 6, MaxTrSz: 10000, Vol: 45513, AvTrSz: 410
    Min. Pr: 0.9600, Max Pr: 1.0800, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 1.0005
    # Buys, Shares: 57 11139, VW Avg Buy Pr: 1.0046
    # Sells, Shares: 51 30674, VW Avg Sell Pr: 1.0022
    # Unkn, Shares: 3 3700, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.9738
    Buy:Sell 1:2.75 (24.47% "buys"), DlyShts 2300 (05.05%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 7.50%

    Some positive indicators are in sight today – most notably the behavior of the offers when some buying pressure appeared. As you know, I suspected that we've an unseen support crew sporadically appearing. Yesterday, 12/24, when it looked like they might be active, the one period that might have qualified due to a very high percentage of buys was on generally falling trade prices and insufficient volume [of buys] to overcome lower offers appearing during the period. I ended up saying I couldn't say I saw any evidence of strong support from our unseen support crew.

    Today's support effort, if there was such, played out better than yesterday's as the offers backed off when the buying impetus appeared, unlike yesterday. However, it still doesn't measure up to the activity I saw that first made me suspect the presence of this support. There was only a single period and it was of less strength in terms of volume and taking out the offers regardless of offering price. Even so, it did reverse a weakening trend seen in the earlier part of the day and at the end of the period through EOD the VWAP for the day did stay above $1, which the early action would not have suggested. See the trading breakdown by time.

    Volume recovered to be above all my averages but the 50-day (~62K).

    That's the end of the good news though.

    Buy percentage continues below all my averages, which ... VWAP continues to fall (another -00.45%) ... Daily short percentage continues in the area where I feel price appreciation is unlikely, although ...

    My newer inflection point calculations, which yesterday flipped from predominantly weakening to slight improvement across all periods, today gave back the gains on the three shortest periods as they went to increasing weakness.

    I'm not really looking for much of a sustained trend (in improvement?) until we get into the new year. Just too many folks out for holidays and/or distracted by them to expect otherwise.

    Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved -1.03%, 2.86%, -00.45%, 56.83% and 475.00% respectively. Price spread today was 12.50% vs. 8.25%, 10.43%, 13.33%, 24.30%, 25.45%, 4.55%, 5.69%, 4.34% and 6.94% on prior days.

    The larger trades (>= 500) occurred on 17 of the 111 trades, 15.32%. These 32,840 shares were 72.16% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.9994. 4 of the ...

    The other 94 trades, 84.68%, traded 12,673 shares, 27.84% of the days volume. The VWAP was $1.0032. 53 trades ...

    The usual is in the blog here.
    http://bit.ly/16eDAm3

    HardToLove
    Dec 27, 2014. 02:57 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Capstone Turbine Snags Major New Order, Buy Recommendation Reiterated [View article]
    CN: Mystery solved! A poster on the Investorvillage message board confessed it was one of his seasonal practical jokes which he does around this time each year.

    HardToLove
    Dec 27, 2014. 01:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 384: Dec. 17, 2014 [View instapost]
    Rugged: avoiding cashless conversion requires price >= $1?

    HardToLove
    Dec 27, 2014. 01:18 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 384: Dec. 17, 2014 [View instapost]
    MrI: Nope. $1.0005

    Still lot's of slack - 5/100ths of a penny! :-))

    It was headed that way though until (using my arbitrary breakdowns by time) until the 13:57 period. Before that my three prior time-frames had VWAPs (earliest to latest) of $0.9906, $0.9796 and $0.9746.

    From 13:57 onward all periods were above $1 and had more volume (eyeball ~61% of the day's volume) than the earlier periods.

    What saved us seems to be that as bids started hitting the offers, the offers backed off, unlike 12/24 when the offers did not do so.

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    Dec 27, 2014. 01:17 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 384: Dec. 17, 2014 [View instapost]
    Raleigh: Some of it because when we have low volume the easiest and most profitable route for MMs is down.

    But most of it is what others mention, IMO.

    Having said that, we should keep in mid the paragraphs in the filing where Maxim said they will trade. I know nothing of their decision-making process and if their trading is intended to support the stock or just garner profits.

    Avoiding cashless conversion would seem to be an import element if they intend to support the stock, so they may time their activities to that.

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    Dec 27, 2014. 01:08 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 384: Dec. 17, 2014 [View instapost]
    Mark: I believe you are correct. But unless I see data as *hard* evidence, I try not to let my TFH control my commentary.

    That's why in cases such as today's (Wed 12/24) post I use phrases such as "I can't say I saw any evidence ..." (emphasis on evidence) rather than something like "no price support was in place today".

    As for today's, I *did* see, upon initial examination, activity that more strongly reminded me of what I saw when I first raised the possibility.

    I won't be able to finalize my conclusion on that until I examine the data in the leisure of my own hot tub (don't I *wish*) this P.M.

    Possibly more important is that when I saw that activity the offers backed off, unlike yesterday when the offers did *not* back off.

    That may be unrelated to the "unseen support crew" activity, other than whether or not it encourages them to keep trying. Maybe they were in yesterday, noted the intransigence of the sellers' offers, and decided a strategic retreat, regroup and charge another day was a better course.

    Don't know, will likely never know and know at least that much of what I don't know ... :-))

    HardToLove
    Dec 26, 2014. 04:36 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Capstone Turbine Snags Major New Order, Buy Recommendation Reiterated [View article]
    There was a (rumor) originally garnered from the Yahoo board and supposedly copied to a post at Investorvillage that Wrightspeed had received an order for 1,800 conversions which would use Capstone, delivery beginning in Jan. at xxx/mo.

    I have not been able to confirm this. No links on co. site (and that would be material I think), no SEC filing, no link provided by original or subsequent poster.

    However, it does qualify rather nicely as a "visions of sugar plums danced through my head" issuance. :-))

    HardToLove
    Dec 26, 2014. 03:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 384: Dec. 17, 2014 [View instapost]
    12/24/2014: EOD stuff partially copied from blog (up now).
    # Trds: 76, MinTrSz: 15, MaxTrSz: 2950, Vol: 29020, AvTrSz: 382
    Min. Pr: 0.9700, Max Pr: 1.0500, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 1.0050
    # Buys, Shares: 33 7930, VW Avg Buy Pr: 1.0113
    # Sells, Shares: 41 20557, VW Avg Sell Pr: 1.0025
    # Unkn, Shares: 2 533, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 1.0055
    Buy:Sell 1:2.59 (27.33% "buys"), DlyShts 400 (01.38%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 1.95%

    No positive indicators in sight today.

    Volume and buy percentage were below all my averages. VWAP continues to fall, barely maintaining $1 with today's $1.0050, and getting ever further below all my averages. Daily short percentage continues in the area where I feel price appreciation is unlikely. This could be due to long holder dumping or, at least as likely IMO, lot's of intra-broker or intra-MM trades being done. Also, short-term long positions by the MMs as shares covering prior sell orders flow in could be contributing.

    Due to the low volume and stable buy percentages, my newer inflection point calculations flipped from predominantly weakening to slight improvement across all periods today.

    I can't say I saw any evidence of strong support from our unseen support crew today. The one period that might have qualified ...

    Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 1.04%, -0.95%, -00.23%, -48.99% and -78.95% respectively. Price spread today was 8.25% vs. 10.43%, 13.33%, 24.30%, 25.45%, 4.55%, 5.69%, 4.34%, 6.94% and 13.89% on prior days.

    The larger trades (>= 500) occurred on 19 of the 76 trades, 25.00%. These 19,931 shares were 68.68% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $1.0000. 5 of the ...

    The other 57 trades, 75.00%, traded 9,089 shares, 31.32% of the days volume. The VWAP was $1.0041. 28 trades ...

    The usual is in the blog here.
    http://seekingalpha.co...

    HardToLove
    Dec 26, 2014. 03:04 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 384: Dec. 17, 2014 [View instapost]
    12/23/2014: EOD stuff partially copied from blog (up now).
    # Trds: 124, MinTrSz: 32, MaxTrSz: 5000, Vol: 56894, AvTrSz: 459
    Min. Pr: 0.9600, Max Pr: 1.0601, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 1.0072
    # Buys, Shares: 62 20494, VW Avg Buy Pr: 1.0092
    # Sells, Shares: 55 33000, VW Avg Sell Pr: 1.0092
    # Unkn, Shares: 7 3400, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.9756
    Buy:Sell 1:1.61 (36.02% "buys"), DlyShts 1900 (03.34%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 5.76%

    No positive indicators in sight today.

    Volume was above all but the 50-day average today, but it was down -19.03% from yesterday's. Holidays effect? Considering how many day's we had below ...

    Buy percentage tried to recover from the collapse begun Friday, when ...

    My newer inflection point calculations continue to weaken today.

    Yesterday, while ... I had wondered some time back if we have to get sub-$1 to see them strongly appear again. Maybe so”.

    We may have seen them today as we neared and then penetrated the $1 price level. But not at the same magnitude as the first occurrence. See the trading breakdown commentary for more detail.

    Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved -8.57%, -10.92%, -07.46%, -19.03% and infinity (yesterday short volume was 0) respectively. Price spread today was 10.43% vs. 13.33%, 24.30%, 25.45%, 4.55%, 5.69%, 4.34%, 6.94%, 13.89% and 17.14% on prior days.

    The trading breakdown by time 11:30 range and the breakdown by price $1.02 range include a “burst” of 8,400 shares that were all buys for $1.02 from 11:30:38 through 11:30:40. I wondered if this three-second burst might be our unseen support crew, but they did not return for a second attempt, as they did the first time we saw them, and the offers did not respond by marching up. Considering this, maybe it was just a bull's “buy stop” firing off.

    The larger trades (>= 500) occurred on 33 of the 124 trades, 26.61%. These 44,618 shares were 78.42% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $1.0084. 7 of the ...

    The other 91 trades, 73.39%, traded 12,276 shares, 21.58% of the days volume. The VWAP was $1.0030. 55 trades, ...

    The usual is in the blog here.
    http://seekingalpha.co...

    HardToLove
    Dec 24, 2014. 11:01 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 384: Dec. 17, 2014 [View instapost]
    OK. Might be some: MMs not usually seen are on the bid at >=$1 now. VWAP through 13:51 is $1,0068.

    Offers began marching up now, let's see if bid joins the parade. Bids qty at best level way higher than offers at best: $1 x4.6K bid vs $1.05 x 100 offered.

    HardToLove
    Dec 23, 2014. 02:02 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 384: Dec. 17, 2014 [View instapost]
    Yep. Last time once sub$1 was hit we had an initial "burst" and then another "burst" later. But being a holiday week I'll confess that I would be surprised if we soo the same level of support today.

    Tomorrow, being a half-day, I would also not expect much support.

    With any luck, something will appear in the first week of Jan.

    HardToLove
    Dec 23, 2014. 01:12 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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