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H. T. Love

 
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  • Axion Power Concentrator 364 Sep. 11 '14: BOD Approves 50:1 Rev. Split; EPower & Axion Present At The Battery Show; 10-Q For Q1 2014; S-1 For $15MM Share Issuance [View instapost]
    09/11/2014: EOD stuff partially copied from blog (up now).
    # Trds: 43, MinTrSz: 2, MaxTrSz: 715, Vol: 5699, AvTrSz: 133
    Min. Pr: 4.0000, Max Pr: 4.3500, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 4.1345
    # Buys, Shares: 21 3047, VW Avg Buy Pr: 4.2117
    # Sells, Shares: 22 2652, VW Avg Sell Pr: 4.0457
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1.15:1 (53.47% "buys"), DlyShts 1062 (18.63%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 38.88%

    FINRA's EOD REG SHO process still doesn't pick up odd lot trades. Today they were missing 713 shares, 12.51% of actual volume. There's again likely a few (~20%?) short sales in those shares. When correct data appeared I updated appropriate places. The additional shorts were 4.35% of the missing volume.

    Yesterday was a medium-volume day, using the reverse-split adjusted volume equivalent of 541,800 shares traded and it was lower volume, down from the prior day's equivalent adjusted 1,030,850. Today is the equivalent of 284,950 – not the lowest ever but low. For some perspective in post-split terms, here's the 10, 25, 50 and 100-day average volumes, in thousands: 8.71, 10.81, 10.68 and 9.65 respectively.

    I've been saying it's still too soon after the reverse split to tell if the directional correlation of buy and daily short percentage are back to normal. I still feel that way, especially as long as volume is n the crapper.

    Yesterday I mentioned we might have seen a break out of the trend of weakening in the first and last weeks of the month but it really was too soon to determine that. Today continued that break, but how much weight to give it with this volume is problematic. Regardless, from 8/22 onward the selling was 78.20%, 71.3%, 94.9%, 71.44%, 5.3%, 76.6%, 77.9%, 63.9%, 18.1% (first day of split trading), 58.5%, 49.1% and 46.53% today.

    With today's volume there's not much more commentary I think is justified. Just the numbers, mostly, for the rest of today's post.

    Much less of the usual, due to low volume, in the blog here.
    http://seekingalpha.co...

    HardToLove
    Sep 12 03:19 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 364 Sep. 11 '14: BOD Approves 50:1 Rev. Split; EPower & Axion Present At The Battery Show; 10-Q For Q1 2014; S-1 For $15MM Share Issuance [View instapost]
    Maybe the RR definition is "between the snows"? :-))

    That one would suit me just fine.

    HardToLove
    Sep 12 02:25 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 364 Sep. 11 '14: BOD Approves 50:1 Rev. Split; EPower & Axion Present At The Battery Show; 10-Q For Q1 2014; S-1 For $15MM Share Issuance [View instapost]
    You know D-Inv, it just occurred to me that part of the delay might be for training. Remember flyinglow provided some handy links about that (now up in the header - thanks APH).

    Skilled engineers to drive our buggy might be in short supply and/or require some training that fits into their workload and schedule.

    I presume only *experienced* engineers would be candidates for this since there might be some worry about "what ifs".

    HardToLove
    Sep 12 02:15 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 364 Sep. 11 '14: BOD Approves 50:1 Rev. Split; EPower & Axion Present At The Battery Show; 10-Q For Q1 2014; S-1 For $15MM Share Issuance [View instapost]
    Smarkis: Mine's working fine today. I e-mailed support@seekingalpha.com last evening before quitting for the day, sending them snapshots and doing all the "boilerplate" stuff before mailing them.

    Came in this A.M. and all was right with the world.

    I saw a comment by ggrogers(?) that apparently went away, along with a reply to it. I've noticed in the past that can sometimes confuse the counters that you see.

    I would expect all is working correctly again when you next visit?

    If not, an e-mail to support might be warranted.

    HTH,
    HardToLove
    Sep 12 02:09 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A speculative play on UQM [View instapost]
    Crunching Numbers: I follow fundamentals very little - not educated in that area enough to do much with it ... yet. I do try and dip my toes in some of the basics off and on though.

    IIRC the DOE grant was for a non-REE motor? I haven't read on that for a very long time and don't recall if it's multi-phased or not.

    I believe UQM has been using it and, IIRC, normal process for this sort of thing is payment upon submission of end of step (phase, project?) documents meeting mileposts and billings.

    So I don't expect anything from that until UQM finishes the work.

    With UQM's expertise in these areas I don't think this would be a multi-phase R&D project. They should be able to complete their work before that expires.

    If there is a follow-on, I would expect it would be something along the lines of aiding commercialization, as was done with UQM's expansion into high-volume manufacturing capability where the DOE aided in the purchase of resources and some other areas.

    As to how long UQM's been around, keep in mind they weren't a "pure" motor manufacturing company all that long.
    http://bit.ly/1qOakty

    I'm not sure that's a complete summary either - I vaguely recall some other kind of products ... Ah! Google has a better memory than I: http://bit.ly/1qOajpu

    HTH,
    HardToLove
    Sep 12 01:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A speculative play on UQM [View instapost]
    D Lane: Great minds think alike ... and make the same mistakes? ;-))

    For *trading* purposes I grabbed a small block at $1.149 - you did better than I! :-))

    HardToLove
    Sep 12 12:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 364 Sep. 11 '14: BOD Approves 50:1 Rev. Split; EPower & Axion Present At The Battery Show; 10-Q For Q1 2014; S-1 For $15MM Share Issuance [View instapost]
    Great work Kevin!

    'Course you spoiled it all with your last line, " I would think it is fair to assume field testing is eminent if not yet taking place" because that's all folks will remember and it will certainly take longer than "eminent if not yet taking place". LoL! :-))

    HardToLove
    Sep 12 11:59 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A speculative play on UQM [View instapost]
    EDIT: See the end for an after thought.

    Crunching Numbers: Good question. First, I am not qualified to suggest to anyone about whether now is a good time or not. Best I can do is share what I see and my interpretations. I am also foolish enough to sometimes mention what I'm doing - meaning embarrassment is no stranger to me.

    DRich predicted this price level quite some time back and may have a much better take than I.

    I think one can't go too wrong waiting for move up to begin as there's less risk then. In my investment accounts that's generally what I do and I don't trade them much or large. For them a *confirmed* break above that strong descending resistance (looks to be ~$1.55 today and drops ~$0.0229/day) might be a decent add point, depending on what else is seen.

    In my trading account I'm always trying to get in near an anticipated low and out near an anticipated high, with very mixed success.

    Other than any (as yet unseen?) effects, if any, from the recent UQM presentation I don't see any near-term catalysts for the equity. So I suspect general market action and TA are the only movers for right now. September and October are reputed to be the worst months for the general market. From an investing perspective, that may suggest some time in these periods are good entry points as the general markets are anticipated to begin to improve thereafter.

    Regardless, as I had mentioned in an earlier comment, I had really expected the flat-up-flat chart pattern to result in a small move up as volatility was very low (see Bollinger comment below).

    FAIL!

    Some detailed thoughts on the TA side that may be uninteresting ...

    Increasing volatility is seen as the last four days finally broke below the $1.55ish support, then confirmed, and have formed a pattern of lower lows, two consecutive higher highs, and two (not consecutive) higher volume days . Thursday had the bigger volume - ~4.65 times the 10-day average, ~73.97K at end of 9/10.

    This *may* have been the sign of capitulation. If it was capitulation, the slide down should stop. This may be supported by the one-minute behavior mentioned below.

    Over the last four days the Bollinger bands transitioned from essentially parallel (low volatility) for about a week to diverging, indicating increased volatility. Currently the mid-point of the upper ~$1.72 and lower ~$1.48 limits is ~$1.60. If one presumes a typical move towards this mid-point (which will move over time), the upside is small right now.

    But if we assume my $1.40ish low is valid, so is the downside risk.

    This would suggest no compelling risk/reward reason for a trader to make a move of any kind. For an investor, if the $1.40 is considered the likely low point, anywhere in the current range might be considered a good add point.

    Anyway, times of high volatility are difficult to call and generally really good only for traders, not so much for investors, I think.

    Thursday the early high, $1.57 bumped right up to that descending resistance I mentioned I thought was a strong one. Then it retreated, making a very nasty buy:sell (see below). Very late in the day, 15:45, it made the low of $1.46 on a big one-minute volume of 64.7K, ~18,8% of the days volume in that one minute!

    Then we closed just one penny above that low with almost no volume.

    Another, less conventional, metric I watch is the buy:sell (trades hitting the bid vs. hitting the offer). Early in the day it was a nasty skew toward the sell side, strongly hitting the bid. But around 14;00 or so it begin to roll and ended the day with a buy:sell of 1.46:1, which is pretty good. This strongly suggests buyers saw the $1.47ish area as an attractive buy point. During this time we saw a five-minute period, 14:29 - 14:33 with 105.2K traded, 30.5% of day's volume, push price from a low of $1.47 to $1.50.

    We don't know if these buyers were investors or traders or shorters making covering buys though.

    Full stochastic is oversold and beginning to roll up, with %K just getting ready to cross above %D. Also in oversold is Williams %R (-95.2, quite low). RSI is *barely* above oversold at 30.68. A lot of folks see strongly oversold as engendering a bounce up but I have seen it hold in oversold longer than one would think before any move up appears.

    Friday's are often low-volume flattish days, but not always. Might want to see what Monday and Tuesday brings and assess then.

    HTH,
    HardToLove
    EDIT: http://bit.ly/X6A7kC
    Sep 12 08:53 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 364 Sep. 11 '14: BOD Approves 50:1 Rev. Split; EPower & Axion Present At The Battery Show; 10-Q For Q1 2014; S-1 For $15MM Share Issuance [View instapost]
    I like the web site John.

    And the "read more" boxes are handy.

    HardToLove
    Sep 11 07:49 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 364 Sep. 11 '14: BOD Approves 50:1 Rev. Split; EPower & Axion Present At The Battery Show; 10-Q For Q1 2014; S-1 For $15MM Share Issuance [View instapost]
    D-Inv: You're right it can appear anytime and for up or down moves.

    But the only real consistent one is the "buys" at EOD. This makes sense because the closing price is a key metric, whereas the opens are less important and intra-day behavior is not as important in traditional TA.

    And there's another group that may paint to get both volume and earn fees and profit from any shares that flowed into their accounts - the MMs. They may also paint to cover what they have shorted, which would be an incentive for them to move price lower. This happens only occasionally in my recollection - seeing some 100 share "lures" hit the bids instead of the offer before the RS was noticed. But that is not consistent as is the EOD stuff hitting the offers.

    But MMs "sell high and then buy low" - the opposite of what we can generally do. And they are permitted to be naked short too.

    I *suspect*, but will never know for sure, that this is one of the reasons there is generally a fairly consistent directional correlation between buy percentage and daily short percentage.

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    Sep 11 07:44 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 364 Sep. 11 '14: BOD Approves 50:1 Rev. Split; EPower & Axion Present At The Battery Show; 10-Q For Q1 2014; S-1 For $15MM Share Issuance [View instapost]
    Thanks all. Now the ones here have cleared.

    SA gremlins making changes maybe?

    HardToLove
    EDIT: Went to 363 and got them again. Clicked on the down arrows, clicked my feed and those same ones come up again.

    Guess I'll have to log off, clear cache and log back in before I e-mail support@seekingalpha.com.
    Sep 11 07:05 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 364 Sep. 11 '14: BOD Approves 50:1 Rev. Split; EPower & Axion Present At The Battery Show; 10-Q For Q1 2014; S-1 For $15MM Share Issuance [View instapost]
    Anybody else getting the same notification of new comments over and over?

    I've been here 5 times now for the same four comments.

    Ditto on APC 363.

    Just started in the last hour(?).

    HardToLove
    Sep 11 06:39 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 364 Sep. 11 '14: BOD Approves 50:1 Rev. Split; EPower & Axion Present At The Battery Show; 10-Q For Q1 2014; S-1 For $15MM Share Issuance [View instapost]
    23808: I have no way to judge the nature of the sellers. About the best I can do is guess that some days it looks less disciplined than others or its an odd day etc.

    In actuality, if I used today as a template I would guess retailers are the buyers.

    Through 13:52:21 the buy percentage was 19.43% on 3,093 shares. VWAP was $4.0645, buy VWAP was $4.1403 and sell VWAP was $4.0463.

    No more trades occurred until 15:05:47.

    From then through the close 2,606 shares traded at VWAP of $4.2174
    with a buy percentage of 93.86%.

    My best guess is that "pros" do not buy high, especially 45.73% of the volume on a low-volume day.

    Considering Axionistas with whom I'm somewhat familiar from long participation on this board, I think they generally tend to buy low. However several have suggested that an effort to paint the tape could be beneficial and these are the ones I would guess are painting the tape by buying high on a regular basis at EOD or in the last hour, etc.

    There are some who trade small blocks and they could be working both sides. Knowing the pattern, get on the bid early and get hit with a low price for the day and then get on the offer late in the day and sell what you bought in the morning to the paint crew.

    I see evidence, somewhat tentative and sporadic, that this is being done.

    If I hadn't sworn not to buy or sell any more until I felt a rise was imminent, it's what I would do as a trader ... Strike that. My ethics might not permit it without a long argument with myself ... which I would likely lose.

    'Splains why I'm a poor man I guess.

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    Sep 11 05:22 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #273, August 15 2014 [View instapost]
    D.G.: Reg demand in China ...

    IIRC it's strong enough that Russia is building a trans-border pipeline to supply them.

    HardToLove
    Sep 11 02:37 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #273, August 15 2014 [View instapost]
    James: I'm guessing the bidding up you describe when $90/bbl is penetrated is due to the Brent/WTI spread after shipping is factored in?

    HardToLove
    Sep 11 09:42 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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