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H. T. Love  

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  • A Speculative Play On UQM Beginning 2/7/2015 [View instapost]
    "Losing Wrightspeed was a blow".

    Ah, there's court cases now for breach of contract. Wrightspeed's "Fulcrum" micro-turbine has only ever been seen in a dis[play case - nothing out there on longevity, reliability, ...

    Who knows how it will end up. Will FedEx et al accept a configuration that's brand new and hasn't been tested for the length of time the CPST units have? Don't know.

    "DesignLine is no more"

    OOPS! I forgot about that. "Environmental Performance Vehicles" bought the stuff and was supposed to pick up the biz in the U.S. However, their web site,, isn't found so I don't know their status - suspect DOA. More digging would be needed.

    "CPST has to live or die via their stationary sales"

    I've felt that way for a very long time, although as you mention, there's some OTR hope as PCAR (Peterbuilt and KW) has been running a CPST around in a test truck for quite some time last we heard and the publicly visible WAVE truck suggests that game is not dead.

    Worse, the headwinds CPST faces, due to USD strength, declining economies, Russia's BPC ills, ... has finally forced management to confront reality and start cutting some costs, but WAY too late in the game, making their road much more difficult than it needed to be.

    Their best hope is the 100 new sales folks the distributors are supposed to add combined with getting closing rates on potential sales up from 11% to 20% AND getting traction in emerging markets. This last item is tough when EMs are suffering various stages of contraction (relatively speaking).

    Don't know how it's going to turn out. You can tell it's dire when they decide to forego cash bonuses and pay it in stock, probably a good thing and, again, WAY too late.

    Oct 3, 2015. 05:44 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Quick Chat #283 [View instapost]
    Maya: They did however report Baker-Hughes rig count dropped another 26 and began to theorize that this should shortly lead to crude price stability.

    Nobody knows for sure because supposedly it's a combo of supply glut and demand reduction. The latter ostensibly a result of reduced emerging markets demand and China slow down.

    Oct 2, 2015. 06:11 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Speculative Play On UQM Beginning 2/7/2015 [View instapost]
    Yep. Recall that CA ponied up to get BYD buses too, once BYD built a plant in the state.

    How much that would sway purchasing decisions I can't say, but we can figure Proterra will win some based on the quality and features (efficiency, etc.) even if BYD or some other outfit tries to undercut them.

    I'm hoping Designline gets their act together as the Capstone C-30/65, used in Designline buses, is CARB certified already and they've got some good results down in Charlotte and other places.

    CPST really needs the help with the hit from all the headwinds in the energy sector and the economy.

    Oct 2, 2015. 06:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Speculative Play On UQM Beginning 2/7/2015 [View instapost]
    Man. those costs makes it hard to argue a strong case based only on ROI or such. Have to close the sale by "going all greeny", ignoring how dirty the grid is. That could change if the micro-grids start gaining big market share though, as would the cost.

    Oct 2, 2015. 11:45 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Quick Chat #283 [View instapost]
    Only 142K NFP jobs added and prior months revised downward.

    Oct 2, 2015. 08:31 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Speculative Play On UQM Beginning 2/7/2015 [View instapost]
    CN: LoL! Peeking behind the kimono included?

    Oct 1, 2015. 05:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Speculative Play On UQM Beginning 2/7/2015 [View instapost]
    Should be done as most outfits close books at EOM/EOQ.

    I didn't see any signs of it on the stuff I watch.

    Oct 1, 2015. 05:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Quick Chat #283 [View instapost]
    CPST pre-announces shipments delayed will affect results.

    Oct 1, 2015. 09:10 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quick Chat #283 [View instapost]
    "So, I wonder if this means they all believe that the worst is over in midstream companies and, if so, are they right or still early?"

    I have no special knowledge about that, but I know all the talking heads talk about when the recovery comes those who bought now will be rewarded *and* they like the mid-stream, claiming that tolls get paid regardless. I've only heard one talk about reduced volumes, likely as some outfits hit difficulties, leading to reducing "toll receipts".

    Given that, I wouldn't be surprised if there's a lot of larger players loading up, taking a longer view and figuring they'll get paid to wait.

    On something I have encountered during my self-education effort, I think I can offer a couple thoughts.

    Selling losers is only one part of the portential "window dressing" game.

    If you have a *large* position in something you don't want to dump out of, you can support price, especially easy when volumes are below normal or spreads get wider than normal, to make your performance look better..

    E.g. If I have xxMM shares and daily volume drops, I can dump in small bids just below the offers, repeatedly with little risk.

    Two things can happen. Someone hits my bid and the last trade price is improved, my portfolio value just went up. Also sellers see the improved bids, and trades, that seem to keep coming and figure why sell for $X when I think I can get $X+1 based on the bids and trades I'm seeing. So the sellers are likely to raise their offers, leaving more room for me to put in another small higher bid.

    Maybe I increase my position a fraction of a percent doing this but I might gain a ton on EOQ results in portfolio holdings.

    If the bots are in charge it works even better, as I can attest having used their stupidity a few times in the past to get things going. In that case, whatever bid you put in will often be matched or improved within milliseconds. If they are doing that you don't have to actually buy anything. I have a couple stocks for which I use that knowledge occasionally, especially if what I really want to do is sell at a better price. It's my slow-mo version of what HFT folks do with the thosunds of orders entered and cancelled in milli-seconds.

    Today one of my stocks, held in three accounts, gained a couple grand as AH someone placed an order that filled ~34.7% above the close. I saw a coulpe grand portfolios improvement on that one trade in one stock.

    Now imagine the benefits to your bonus chances if you get that for a *large* position.

    It's better than dumping and going to cash, which gets you nothing but removal of a reporting line. This gets a nice bloated reporting line.

    I hope the thoughts are useful,
    Sep 30, 2015. 06:54 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quick Chat #283 [View instapost]
    Here's some press on it.
    "Russia launches airstrikes in Syria, says attacking Islamic State; US casts doubt on targets"

    Sep 30, 2015. 05:30 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quick Chat #283 [View instapost]
    SHB: Yep. ETrade just changed, upped, margin requirements on some high-volatility stocks I hold, including options.

    I think these e-trade platforms and the brokers have a good view to what the risk is.

    They're catching up with us.

    Sep 30, 2015. 05:06 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quick Chat #283 [View instapost]
    Careful Maya, I sense an effect of the end of "window dressing" season.

    Is it real or just an "urban legend"? I think it's real and so does Fischer, one of the (former? Can't remember. ) Fed Bank guys - I forget which one. He referenced that specifically on CNBC the last couple days when discussing the "Failure to Launch" a quarter-point rate hike.

    Sep 30, 2015. 04:40 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Speculative Play On UQM Beginning 2/7/2015 [View instapost]
    Just a heads up: for the last few days there have been consistent AH trades, small in size, above the close.

    Today's close was $0.6014 then an AH at $0.6350 and another was impressive at $0.81.

    I've seen this on other stocks and got the impression that someone was trying to manipulate price up.

    Today's might be "window dressing", although I would've thought only the close counted for what appears on the books.

    No news that I've found yet and the AH b/a is $0.67 (above the day's $0.65 high - this is quite unusual) and $0.99 (common), another sign when the bid is higher.

    Intra-day looked really normal though - very low volume, relatively tight range, the usual MMs doing only 100-share b/a (ASA usually) and *usually* immediately "robo-matching" or even improving any better b/a (for a while I had entered a $0.66 AoN offer that was immediately matched by two MMs). I often do something like this to get things moving - sometimes it works and other times, like today, I cancel it out after no good results appear.

    I usually do it on the bid side though.

    All this leaves me not knowing if anything is really going on or not, but I thought that folks might like to know.

    Sep 30, 2015. 04:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Speculative Play On UQM Beginning 2/7/2015 [View instapost]
    "brokers are permitted to vote shares held in street name for the accounting firm, but not for other issues"

    I didn't know that. I wonder what is the rational behind that.

    Sep 29, 2015. 06:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Speculative Play On UQM Beginning 2/7/2015 [View instapost]
    D Lane: That's certainly good news. Did you notice the part where they said "... with one thousand clean energy buses to be deployed in each participating city"?

    Also, IIUC, each fuel cell requires one compressor, no?

    So if there really are a thousand buses for each city (I suspect that's overly optimistic), that makes the compressor business bought from Roush almost immediately accretive.

    xxx <-- fingers crossed.

    P.S. I added a trading block today based on the price vs. technicals, vs. end of window dressing season upon us.
    Sep 29, 2015. 06:46 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment