Axion Power Concentrator 237: May 16: Axion Power Reports First Quarter Results For 2013 [View instapost]
48: "Testing that confirmed our improved battery was now providing 200 amps and allowing even an undersized Genset to combine with our batteries and produce enough power to pull a full 80,000 pound load."
But we also have the knowledge that it could accept 200, and more, amps on the charge as well.
Not a bad day! Some good news in the quarterly report (potential auto customer introduced Axion to potential partner(s?) for second-source of the PbC batteries) seemed to generate enough bullishness to offset the sellers' desire to exit, as evidenced by the buy:sell (all the averages are back near normal levels too now) and VWAP action today vs. Prior days: $0.2609, $0.2588, $0.2513, $0.2492, $0.2466, $0.2417, $0.2372, $0.2446 and $0.2592. I think the recognition that there's no assured near-term increase in revenues, leaving another capital raise on the table for a year or so out, muted the potential response.
Some context on the price action might be useful here. Note the prices where the weight of the volume is.
$0.2460-$0.2475: 018500 shares, 02.88% of volume, VWAP $0.2462 $0.2500-$0.2530: 102767 shares, 16.01% of volume, VWAP $0.2504 $0.2550-$0.2590: 124500 shares, 19.40% of volume, VWAP $0.2558 $0.2600-$0.2649: 123400 shares, 19.23% of volume, VWAP $0.2618 $0.2650-$0.2690: 226068 shares, 35.23% of volume, VWAP $0.2666
On the technical front, daily short sales continue elevated and all the averages I track, 10, 25, 50 and 100-day, have moved above the long-term calculated short sales trend line and are rising: 25.04 %, 16.08%, 11.02% and 11.55%. Daily trade volume is still elevated, compared to recent trends, and is in the process of normalizing ATM.
Average trade size is at the low-mid-range of what I think is retail. The market-makers, including the recent new entrants, are having to work harder. This is supported by the changes in bid/ask that were seen today, decidedly less bullish than prior days. Of 15 bid changes I spotted 6 were increases and 9 were decreases (some uncovered by exhaustion of better bids). Of the 13 ask changes, 4 were increases (some uncovered) and 9 were decreases. In spite of that, VWAP and buy:sell do show that there's not a large imbalance (yet?) in the buyers and sellers.
On my original experimental inflection point calculations, there's no change worth noting – expected with the buy:sell, the predominate metric, so balanced. On my newer version, which includes some other factors, six of six metrics improved. It is ready to signal a move up.
Details of “Dly Sht % of 'sells'” and inflection points omitted here.
Axion Power Concentrator 237: May 16: Axion Power Reports First Quarter Results For 2013 [View instapost]
48: "Regrets to all if any of my misplaced exuberances may have in the least pointed anyone astray. I will attempt to close it up better going forward... "
You aren't culpable there. We are all working in ignorance. It is the presentation of all the possibilities from all the POVs and spawned by the interactions that help us navigate the darkness presented to us.
All of us will be wrong and all of us will be right, likely at various points, as we go through this process.
Axion Power Concentrator 236: May 15: Axion Power Releases Quarterly Report For The First Quarter 2013 [View instapost]
"can only represent up to 60% of any one day's volume"
I think I would call that to the SEC's attention. It would strongly suggest coordinated action.
My thinking is that all have different goals, strategies, time-frames ... and there would be *some* simultaneous selling, off and on, but it *should* be unlikely consistent and heavy.
Axion Power Concentrator 236: May 15: Axion Power Releases Quarterly Report For The First Quarter 2013 [View instapost]
Albert: the company could host a section on their web site. (CPST) has an "Ask Management" section. They answer questions as time permits, usually a couple of months (I wish it were faster, but ...).
Axion Power Concentrator 236: May 15: Axion Power Releases Quarterly Report For The First Quarter 2013 [View instapost]
Wtb: "we suspect we're getting ducked because they know just how hard the questions are going to be"
In which case I would want dump either management or my position ASAP. I don't want to be in a company with which there seems to be an adversarial relationship.
If TG sees us as the counter-party in a negotiation, he needs to ... well you know.
Axion Power Concentrator 236: May 15: Axion Power Releases Quarterly Report For The First Quarter 2013 [View instapost]
Smaturin: "The Company expects to begin supplying batteries to BMW's Spartanburg plant and its dealer-owned service centers on or about April 1, 2006".
Axion Power Concentrator 237: May 16: Axion Power Reports First Quarter Results For 2013 [View instapost]
<rant> I would like to take this opportunity to gripe, which I don't often do (until recently), in the hopes that TG & Co. will see it and think about it. I think if all post a thought about it ...
It peeved me mightily that they have been several months into the process of second supplier efforts and nary a word that might ease the fears of the investment community was uttered.
I feel that this could have been a minor PR with few details that said something along the lines of "Axion is pursuing ... alliances ... for satisfaction of requirements for use in (a potential) auto ..." and omit all detail as appropriate.
Their silence does eliminate the risk of being seen to fail - good for them.
If they are going to be a "commercial enterprise", I assume that one of the tasks they inherit with that mantle is concern for keeping investors informed in a *timely* manner. Some call it "managing expectations". I call it just helping your investing community make the best decisions for themselves and for the company benefit.
Just think of what it would feel like for folks that dumped and lost money just because the company was more tight-lipped than it needed to be if this cc caused a nice price appreciation.
How many folks might have stayed away because a significant step towards an apparent auto win was not even hinted.
Think of the angst that could be avoided by folks that decide to hold through thick and thin if they had these tidbits of information.
As a share holder I feel we are part of the company and deserve to be informed, within reason and with due discretion, when steps that will have significant effect on investor decisions occur. Even if nothing is finalized, it's worth letting the community *know* that some significant change in the activities progressing towards success occurs.
"The market is a forward-looking mechanism". Looking backwards only, through the quarterly reports, just doesn't cut it here.
I won't even address how much easier and better their financing effort *might* have been if share price had been going the other way. That's above my knowledge, of course. </rant>
Axion Power Concentrator 236: May 15: Axion Power Releases Quarterly Report For The First Quarter 2013 [View instapost]
Folks shouldn't equate that 25% to "specific energy", as Rick notes. The was an increase in usable energy permitted by a deeper DoD, according to the patent. This equates, IIRC some of the early slides JP provided, to the change in internal resistance profile.
For an application like ePower, it *is* a significant gain. But that's not related to total energy content. As folks note, that increase, if any, is minor.
Axion Power Concentrator 237: May 16: Axion Power Reports First Quarter Results For 2013 [View instapost]
But we also have the knowledge that it could accept 200, and more, amps on the charge as well.
Se we're good to go up and down hills. :-))
HardToLove
Axion Power Concentrator 237: May 16: Axion Power Reports First Quarter Results For 2013 [View instapost]
# Trds: 138, MinTrSz: 160, MaxTrSz: 20000, Vol 641735, AvTrSz: 4650
Min. Pr: 0.2460, Max Pr: 0.2690, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2592
# Buys, Shares: 64 277317, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2601
# Sells, Shares: 70 354417, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2585
# Unkn, Shares: 4 10001, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.2549
Buy:Sell 1:1.28 (43.2% “buys”), DlyShts 218208 (34%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 61.57%
Not a bad day! Some good news in the quarterly report (potential auto customer introduced Axion to potential partner(s?) for second-source of the PbC batteries) seemed to generate enough bullishness to offset the sellers' desire to exit, as evidenced by the buy:sell (all the averages are back near normal levels too now) and VWAP action today vs. Prior days: $0.2609, $0.2588, $0.2513, $0.2492, $0.2466, $0.2417, $0.2372, $0.2446 and $0.2592. I think the recognition that there's no assured near-term increase in revenues, leaving another capital raise on the table for a year or so out, muted the potential response.
Some context on the price action might be useful here. Note the prices where the weight of the volume is.
$0.2460-$0.2475: 018500 shares, 02.88% of volume, VWAP $0.2462
$0.2500-$0.2530: 102767 shares, 16.01% of volume, VWAP $0.2504
$0.2550-$0.2590: 124500 shares, 19.40% of volume, VWAP $0.2558
$0.2600-$0.2649: 123400 shares, 19.23% of volume, VWAP $0.2618
$0.2650-$0.2690: 226068 shares, 35.23% of volume, VWAP $0.2666
On the technical front, daily short sales continue elevated and all the averages I track, 10, 25, 50 and 100-day, have moved above the long-term calculated short sales trend line and are rising: 25.04 %, 16.08%, 11.02% and 11.55%. Daily trade volume is still elevated, compared to recent trends, and is in the process of normalizing ATM.
Average trade size is at the low-mid-range of what I think is retail. The market-makers, including the recent new entrants, are having to work harder. This is supported by the changes in bid/ask that were seen today, decidedly less bullish than prior days. Of 15 bid changes I spotted 6 were increases and 9 were decreases (some uncovered by exhaustion of better bids). Of the 13 ask changes, 4 were increases (some uncovered) and 9 were decreases. In spite of that, VWAP and buy:sell do show that there's not a large imbalance (yet?) in the buyers and sellers.
On my original experimental inflection point calculations, there's no change worth noting – expected with the buy:sell, the predominate metric, so balanced. On my newer version, which includes some other factors, six of six metrics improved. It is ready to signal a move up.
Details of “Dly Sht % of 'sells'” and inflection points omitted here.
HardToLove
Axion Power Concentrator 237: May 16: Axion Power Reports First Quarter Results For 2013 [View instapost]
HardToLove
Axion Power Concentrator 237: May 16: Axion Power Reports First Quarter Results For 2013 [View instapost]
You aren't culpable there. We are all working in ignorance. It is the presentation of all the possibilities from all the POVs and spawned by the interactions that help us navigate the darkness presented to us.
All of us will be wrong and all of us will be right, likely at various points, as we go through this process.
MHO,
HardToLove
Axion Power Concentrator 236: May 15: Axion Power Releases Quarterly Report For The First Quarter 2013 [View instapost]
I think I would call that to the SEC's attention. It would strongly suggest coordinated action.
My thinking is that all have different goals, strategies, time-frames ... and there would be *some* simultaneous selling, off and on, but it *should* be unlikely consistent and heavy.
Lots of room for me to be wrong there though.
HardToLove
Axion Power Concentrator 236: May 15: Axion Power Releases Quarterly Report For The First Quarter 2013 [View instapost]
HardToLove
Axion Power Concentrator 236: May 15: Axion Power Releases Quarterly Report For The First Quarter 2013 [View instapost]
In which case I would want dump either management or my position ASAP. I don't want to be in a company with which there seems to be an adversarial relationship.
If TG sees us as the counter-party in a negotiation, he needs to ... well you know.
MHO,
HardToLove
Axion Power Concentrator 236: May 15: Axion Power Releases Quarterly Report For The First Quarter 2013 [View instapost]
I wonder if they still have the contract.
HardToLove
Axion Power Concentrator 237: May 16: Axion Power Reports First Quarter Results For 2013 [View instapost]
I would like to take this opportunity to gripe, which I don't often do (until recently), in the hopes that TG & Co. will see it and think about it. I think if all post a thought about it ...
It peeved me mightily that they have been several months into the process of second supplier efforts and nary a word that might ease the fears of the investment community was uttered.
I feel that this could have been a minor PR with few details that said something along the lines of "Axion is pursuing ... alliances ... for satisfaction of requirements for use in (a potential) auto ..." and omit all detail as appropriate.
Their silence does eliminate the risk of being seen to fail - good for them.
If they are going to be a "commercial enterprise", I assume that one of the tasks they inherit with that mantle is concern for keeping investors informed in a *timely* manner. Some call it "managing expectations". I call it just helping your investing community make the best decisions for themselves and for the company benefit.
Just think of what it would feel like for folks that dumped and lost money just because the company was more tight-lipped than it needed to be if this cc caused a nice price appreciation.
How many folks might have stayed away because a significant step towards an apparent auto win was not even hinted.
Think of the angst that could be avoided by folks that decide to hold through thick and thin if they had these tidbits of information.
As a share holder I feel we are part of the company and deserve to be informed, within reason and with due discretion, when steps that will have significant effect on investor decisions occur. Even if nothing is finalized, it's worth letting the community *know* that some significant change in the activities progressing towards success occurs.
"The market is a forward-looking mechanism". Looking backwards only, through the quarterly reports, just doesn't cut it here.
I won't even address how much easier and better their financing effort *might* have been if share price had been going the other way. That's above my knowledge, of course.
</rant>
MHO,
HardToLove
QC #257, May 10, 2013 [View instapost]
HardToLove
Axion Power Concentrator 236: May 15: Axion Power Releases Quarterly Report For The First Quarter 2013 [View instapost]
For an application like ePower, it *is* a significant gain. But that's not related to total energy content. As folks note, that increase, if any, is minor.
HardToLove
Axion Power Concentrator 236: May 15: Axion Power Releases Quarterly Report For The First Quarter 2013 [View instapost]
Possible some kind of rift has developed too.
HardToLove
Axion Power Concentrator 236: May 15: Axion Power Releases Quarterly Report For The First Quarter 2013 [View instapost]
Sound like they're bullish.
HardToLove
Axion Power Concentrator 236: May 15: Axion Power Releases Quarterly Report For The First Quarter 2013 [View instapost]
HardToLove
Axion Power Concentrator 236: May 15: Axion Power Releases Quarterly Report For The First Quarter 2013 [View instapost]
Remember what happened to the Japanese auto production when the tsunami's hit? Cars couldn't be made in the needed quantities.
HardToLove