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H. T. Love  

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  • A Speculative Play On UQM Beginning 2/7/2015 [View instapost]
    Hey D Lane!

    Found this over on IV and thought you might want to dig into it because they mention a drive-train (Electruck) I'd not heard of before and use a bus as the example application.

    "Natural Gas Hybrid Systems"
    http://bit.ly/1FdDl4O

    HardToLove
    Apr 5, 2015. 05:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AXPW: Intra-Day Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting Beginning 04/01/2015 [View instapost]
    Bazooooka: It would but for one teeny tiny little issue: timeliness!

    Remember (adjusts my TFH), the market and regulators are designed to make it easy to take our money! Why else in this age of fiber-optics, high-speed computing everywhere, HFT, internet access by almost everyone, ... would we be sitting into the second week of April awaiting the first half of March FTDs?

    And that is what makes it an "untradable turn" - it will have already made the turn by the time these can indicate the (possible?) "cashless conversion" has ended.

    Not beating my own drum here, but the recently added stuff in my blog daily about NASDAQ short vs. volume and exempt shorts *might* be a more timely indicator *if* JP's surmising that these are a result of back-office delays is correct.

    If that is the case, when conversions stop, delays should end, exempt shorts should plummet and then in only a week or so we should be able to determine, with some degree of confidence, that at least a short-term (and maybe longer?) trend change has occurred (and I suspect one already but haven't tabulated the numbers). Then around for or five weeks later we would get the data in FTDs that should confirm (Oh good! They are so kind to tell us what we already know via more timely methods!). If a trend change has occurred already I suspect it's due to either issued shares limit has been hit or the B warrant gamers have changed strategy due to the ~$0.03xx price levels we've "achieved".

    I don't know which and, again, don't yet *know* if the trend has changed. Part of my inability to be timely with this is the volume - classifying buys and sells is now *very* labor intensive and keeps me behind. This leaves me unable to add the new data in a tabulated form. If someone with an interest picked through my daily stuff and built a table and shared that might be just what the doctor ordered (unabashed hint, hint!).

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    Apr 5, 2015. 04:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Quickchat #279, March 19, 2015 [View instapost]
    Joe: Might be they already get more out to the world market than we would figure.

    "The trading sources estimated Iranian fuel oil exports at around 200,000-400,000 tonnes per month in recent months. That compares with 600-650,000 tonnes in 2011, before sanctions"

    I don't know that's a lot, but apparently their rickety infra-structure is a bit more solid than we might anticipate?

    "RPT-Iranian fuel oil exports trade skirts sanctions"
    http://reut.rs/1DCkIfP

    HardToLove
    Apr 5, 2015. 03:15 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Capstone Turbine Finds New Ways To Disappoint Investors [View article]
    "not trust too much of anything they say."

    Took me a long time to get there too!

    And I think the market eventually followed, possibly explaining why even dinky sales used to cause a sustained (? definition needed) "pop" (ditto) and now 8MW and other multi-MW orders cause barely a ripple.

    "Show me the money" time has apparently arrived? I guess management never figured that would happen?

    HardToLove
    Apr 5, 2015. 03:08 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quickchat #279, March 19, 2015 [View instapost]
    " excessive rules and regulations"

    My only disagreement there is with "excessive", which is purely subjective. Many cases where that's true might exist and many cases where it's not might also be found.

    Having worked with some folks and outfits that had operations moved to Mexico, I can say their expressions of interest were driven most by "cost", which may encompass "excessive rules and regulations", but also may not. In one case of which I am aware it was pure labor, construction and land cost that drove them - nothing about regs, whether safety, pollution or whatever. And it was permits since they left a long-established already operational facility that had no problems regarding any of the myriad regulations.

    I raise this only because it is too easy to generalize and we all know "All generalizations are false, including this one".

    HardToLove
    Apr 5, 2015. 10:45 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Capstone Turbine Finds New Ways To Disappoint Investors [View article]
    "there is no FCF today and calculating any future cash flow is problematic"

    After I posted I thought of that. But I knew you'd catch it and are much more knowledgeable than I about that stuff anyway, so I let it go.

    The Iran situation is certainly a concern. But keep in mind that MTs are used, *currently*, much more in pressurization of pipelines and provision of power for already existing sites than in the drilling, fracking, ... involved in making new wells. Those operations generally involve fracking rigs on trucks powered by diesel IC engines, as do the units that pump high-pressure fluids and propants into the bores.

    Also, SD has issued the first fines, and they look hefty to me, for sites flaring gas and exceeding limits around the well sites. The fines were certainly large enough to pay for a few Cappies and actually save money as well as avoid the fines. So I would expect to see more orders out of the Bakken play over the next couple of months as the drillers realize that SD was serious about those laws they enacted.

    The hitch in the giddy-up there is there's no real pipeline infrastructure yet to pressurize and GE(?) has this new "porta-pipe" (my term not theirs) that lets them get gas (and oil? Unsure) to pipeline or rail heads (unsure which) for shipment. I don't know if it can capture flare gas too.

    ISTR some guy on CNBC talking about putting some pipes in SD, but I don't recall any details at all. Regardless, I presume the usual NIMBY stuff would pop up and slow everything.

    HardToLove
    Apr 5, 2015. 09:14 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • AXPW: Intra-Day Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting Beginning 04/01/2015 [View instapost]
    Updated fails to deliver data through latest available, 2/27/2015. Looks suspiciously like there may be a correlation between fails starting before "cashless conversion" officially kicked off and fails increases. The behavior solidified from there forward so far.

    More data for the first half of March should be available shortly. I expect fails to continue high as I think a lot is related to what JP has pointed out in the past - back-office processes taking some time to get new shares into electronic form that allow settlement.

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    HardToLove
    Apr 5, 2015. 08:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AXPW Split-Adjusted Fails-To-Deliver Charts 2014 Onward [View instapost]
    Well, got caught up on daily stuff, so updated the fails to deliver through the latest data, 2/27/2015.

    Gee, you think the spike in fails starting early in the year and getting really dense 2/17 (that's estimated trade date based on normal T+3 settlement - the fail date would be 2/20) is related to the sharks insuring "cashless conversion" would occur?

    A note has been added ahead of the 2015 H1 (latest) chart regarding that.

    HardToLove
    Apr 5, 2015. 08:54 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quickchat #279, March 19, 2015 [View instapost]
    Until wages improve, his only option is a portable ice chest. Limits his consumption too - more negative GDP action caused by that! :-))

    HardToLove
    Apr 4, 2015. 02:05 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Capstone Turbine Finds New Ways To Disappoint Investors [View article]
    "Sucks for investors, doesn't it?".

    I don't know - I've been debating that.

    In a way I think this is somewhat like one of Cramer's deals where you look for a beaten-down vehicle that is going to recover, albeit that recover part is uncertain right now.

    Since there's no profit we'd have to value it based on PEG ratio or FCF (eh, not yet I guess) or some other (NPV?) value basis.

    Anyway, I'm just watching my chart where a long term descending resistance has held through many challenges. I exhibited unusual discipline, for me, and have not been enticed by "low price" yet to add. When it breaks above that line with volume and building momentum I'll risk some trading block additions.

    HardToLove
    Apr 3, 2015. 05:40 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AXPW: Intra-Day Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting Beginning 03/02/2015 [View instapost]
    New April blog is up. Shorter for now. Converted price chart to logarithmic so we could more clearly experience the perceived pain. It looks really weird though!

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Apr 3, 2015. 05:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Capstone Turbine Finds New Ways To Disappoint Investors [View article]
    D Lane: I wish it would install sooner - might make some Q CC this year show some positive operating profits or even EBITDA break even when other orders shipped and billed in the same periods are added in.

    HardToLove
    Apr 2, 2015. 02:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Speculative Play On UQM Beginning 2/7/2015 [View instapost]
    Audi unveiled their PHEV, the A3 E-tron, today. I wonder if they use UQM? Since they had tested them in various other models, it would make sense? But they could use other brands and styles in this model regardless of testing previously done.

    HardToLove
    Apr 2, 2015. 01:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Speculative Play On UQM Beginning 2/7/2015 [View instapost]
    That's a pretty useful and neat page D Lane!

    All the bus administrations need to do similar.

    HardToLove
    Mar 31, 2015. 11:11 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Speculative Play On UQM Beginning 2/7/2015 [View instapost]
    "but I wander what it does to folks trying to do TA on stocks with such low volume"

    It makes it more difficult because there's little "momentum". E.g., AMD runs 12MM-18MM shares daily very often and that produces trends that don't "jump" as frequently as in low-vol small-cap stocks. Intra-day spread often only 5/6 cents on a $2.50ish stock.

    AMD, sans up/downgrades, is much easier to trade on the TA IMO. And you can also use options on them. UQM has them, but they're not current and underlying price points are too far away last time I looked (some months back). I would expect high implied volatility on them - great for going short the the options, lousy if you want to get long the options. This because the high IV causes high premiums.

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    Mar 30, 2015. 05:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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