Seeking Alpha

H. T. Love

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  • QuickChat #270, April 2, 2014 [View instapost]
    SMaturin: Camouflage it! Otherwise they'll probably confiscate it as a threat to the power of the authorities to protect our national security ... likely at one of those DHS roadblocks that they are adding to their repertoire.

    And a few months after you buy it, they'll make it illegal for all but "authorized personnel" anyway, for the same reasons.

    MNSHO,
    HardToLove
    Apr 12 05:54 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 322: Apr. 09 '14: Q4 & EOY 2013 Results & CC; CFO Resigns; David DiGiacinto Joins BoD; PV With Storage Financials; Petersen Worksheet Suggests PIPE Effects Nearing End [View instapost]
    04/11/2014: EOD stuff partially copied from blog (up now).
    # Trds: 120, MinTrSz: 2, MaxTrSz: 25000, Vol: 876417, AvTrSz: 7303
    Min. Pr: 0.1600, Max Pr: 0.1829, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1689
    # Buys, Shares: 27 149421, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1727
    # Sells, Shares: 91 726496, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1681
    # Unkn, Shares: 2 500, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.1760
    Buy:Sell 1:4.86 (17.05% "buys"), DlyShts 92234 (10.52%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 12.70%

    ARCA was in pre-market again with a 4K $0.249 offer and never moved it until 11:45, when they jumped to the front of the line with a $0.174 offer undercutting the best $0.175 at the time. With heavy and somewhat aggressive competition from WABR, NITE and ATDF, they popped in and out of the market all day long. They first ...

    NITE again had a 200K offer at $0.21 in pre-market (likely a GTC order – the one first seen yesterday?) and sat on it for the rest of the day. As before ...

    The average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 80% today is $0.0954 vs. $0.0929, $0.0904, $0.0884, $0.0865, $0.0848, $0.0831, $0.0819, $0.0816 and $0.0812 on prior days. 80% of today's VWAP is $0.1351 vs. $0.1425, $0.1485, $0.1397, $0.1468, $0.1505, $0.1522, $0.1399, $0.1332 and $0.1338 on prior days. These are potential prices for the next tranche of shares to the PIPErs.

    Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved -8.57% and -3.74%, -5.18%, 264.86% and 139.51% respectively. Price spread today was 14.31% vs. 8.57% 5.71%, 9.40%, 7.78%, 11.30%, 14.22%, 5.88%, 19.76% and 14.20% on prior days.

    These metrics were affected by one trade ...

    The larger trades (>= 15K) occurred on 10 of the 120 trades, 8.33%. These 200,800 shares were 22.91% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1672. 0 of these trades, 0%, were buys ...

    The other 110 trades, 91.67% of the day's trades, traded 675,617 shares, 77.09% of the days volume. The VWAP was $0.1694. 27 trades, 24.55%, were buys ...

    Yesterday, ... get a “gravestone doji”, not a good sign. That doji was not a guarantee that we'd move lower, but it was very suggestive when combined with the traditional and unconventional stuff I went on to detail.

    Today seems to have confirmed that's what we had. We got a noticeably lower low, high and VWAP on higher volume coupled with a close -6.53% lower (and would've been -9.09% if we discount that last $0.1645 trade detailed below and use $0.16 for the close). You can also see the effect in my non-traditional stuff, specifically the buy percentage and lower daily short sales percentage.

    I had mentioned the possibility of some support at $0.16, but said I didn't think it would hold up well because ... In my 49 peeks at the bid ... never saw substantial volume on the bid at $0.16. There were some occurrences of good volume above and some more below though. This is not an unusual situation and I really don't read much into it yet. Those things will change as price moves around.

    I'm still thinking that $0.15 is our best shot at some decent support nearby. The three touches of that horizontal line ... probably accounts for the subsequent move lower – what respectable trader would resist a 20% gain in just a few days? 4/3 traded ~2.64MM shares and we subsequently started showing the first signs of weakness.

    If the PIPErs had shares purchased in the $0.08-$0.09 area, they possibly got better than a double out of those shares.

    On the traditional TA front, saying “there's still no sign of upward pressure” would qualify as an understatement. Maybe a little picture would be useful?

    Axpw Daily 1 Year Snippet 20140411
    http://bit.ly/QhM0Rk

    I mentioned yesterday the high exactly touched my descending trend line, that if we discounted certain trades ...

    Nothing so complicated is needed today – we had lower high, low, VWAP and close on rising volume. Add in my unconventional trading breakdown, which includes buy percentages and VWAP, and the best hope that might approach rationality would be to start going sideways, which I don't expect yet. If we did I don't expect it would last long.

    The newer [inflection point calculations] version's chart pattern, which reduced ... today [Thursday] suggests it is picking up steam”. Today the five, ten and 25-day lines show an acceleration of downward bias is beginning.

    The usual, and an extra snippet of an AXPW chart are in the blog here.
    http://seekingalpha.co...

    HardToLove
    Apr 12 05:41 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #270, April 2, 2014 [View instapost]
    SMaturin: And long ago we had the government decide to force banks to stop "red lining" and make loans into less desirable areas.

    I've often wondered if that didn't eventually, as an unintended consequence, lead to no-doc loans, variable rate mortgages, and the need for financial engeering instruments like MBS and CDOs so the banks could weather the storm they knew would come.

    And that, of course along with other government missteps, led to the near collapse of the banking system and "The Great Recession".

    Not saying, but just wondering.

    The shadow of misdirected good intentions falls wide and far across the landscape.

    Of course, denial is the same as truth as Barney Frank will tell us repeatedly that they (Congress) never forced the banks into making bad loans. I saw it live on CNBC several times as he told that lie.

    HardToLove
    Apr 12 04:22 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 322: Apr. 09 '14: Q4 & EOY 2013 Results & CC; CFO Resigns; David DiGiacinto Joins BoD; PV With Storage Financials; Petersen Worksheet Suggests PIPE Effects Nearing End [View instapost]
    Great one ARGE! "... resistance is not futile, it is helpful and self regulating".

    :-))

    HardToLove
    Apr 12 03:59 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 322: Apr. 09 '14: Q4 & EOY 2013 Results & CC; CFO Resigns; David DiGiacinto Joins BoD; PV With Storage Financials; Petersen Worksheet Suggests PIPE Effects Nearing End [View instapost]
    Edmund: JP has noted the ePower has thrown more than 200 amp short-duration spikes at the PbCs w/o problems.

    I doubt the batteries have to accept 100% of the braking energy. ISTR that resistor banks will be used to dump excess energy.

    I know it made the math easier to use averages for estimations, but keep in mind the "... increases as the square of ..." stuff related to power and energy. There will not always be 325 amps available as the train slows, there will be engineered stuff to make sure the batteries are not unduly stressed, ....

    The key point, for me, is that *HUGE* gains are available to NSC and their ilk w/o capturing 100% of available energy.

    Trying to do so, depending on route, would be a fools errand.

    The old cost:benefit stuff certainly comes into play during the engineering.

    On another tack, the increase to 3000 HP also suggests that NSC changes some of the current handling eqpt. From long ago we know they had stuff that couldn't go >= 200(Darn brain - maybe it was 100?) amps. Anyway, even had a photo of the limiting unit in place. So one could *guess* that PbC has not only allowed potential success, but has increased capacity beyond what was *originally* envisioned and they're upgrading various system components appropriately.

    Well, at least during the patent filing stage.

    HardToLove
    Apr 12 07:26 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #270, April 2, 2014 [View instapost]
    Maya: I don't know how much credence it deserves, but the chatterbox (you know - CNBC) is wondering if it's because the new tax regs and health care stuff left a lot of big money owing big money to the government on 4/15.

    They acknowledge that tax season comes every year but suggest the possibility (at least they aren't speaking authoritatively for once) that folsk weren't prepared for the mount they would have to dole out - market ran up big over the year, lots of profits taken, new *higher* tax rates, and OOPS!

    Gotta sell something to pay Uncle Sam.

    I don't know.

    HardToLove
    Apr 11 04:50 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #270, April 2, 2014 [View instapost]
    FPA: That's simply amazing. No other way to think of it - beautiful and pure and such good control and with no formal instruction!.

    HardToLove
    Apr 11 04:44 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 322: Apr. 09 '14: Q4 & EOY 2013 Results & CC; CFO Resigns; David DiGiacinto Joins BoD; PV With Storage Financials; Petersen Worksheet Suggests PIPE Effects Nearing End [View instapost]
    May: I suspect David DiGiacinto has had some input to TG re trying to support stock price prior to a new raise, and indirectly, current shareholders.

    HardToLove
    Apr 11 03:04 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #270, April 2, 2014 [View instapost]
    Maya: Fantastic. And near the end, I heard "Mack the Knife"!

    HardToLove
    Apr 11 02:11 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 322: Apr. 09 '14: Q4 & EOY 2013 Results & CC; CFO Resigns; David DiGiacinto Joins BoD; PV With Storage Financials; Petersen Worksheet Suggests PIPE Effects Nearing End [View instapost]
    John: Based on what I see today, 1:3.90 (20.42% "buys") through 12:08, sells 79.6%, this could be it.

    However, it will come with, likely in my best estimation, single-digit or very nearly so, single-digit daily short percentage.

    Under *my* understanding, this is normal in our current scenario and *if* the pipers do get exhausted in the next day or two, short percentage should reverse course and move back towards normal ranges.

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    Apr 11 12:38 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 322: Apr. 09 '14: Q4 & EOY 2013 Results & CC; CFO Resigns; David DiGiacinto Joins BoD; PV With Storage Financials; Petersen Worksheet Suggests PIPE Effects Nearing End [View instapost]
    R.A.: Did the third party consider that Axion use a less acidic electrolyte? That it does not suffer "stratification? That the Hydrogen ions go, IIRC, into the carbon and are released to recombine so no losses accrue due to gasification? That Axion employed electron microsopy to examine the positive electrode (anode?) and designed a different grid (includes raised channels) and barriers to help reduce sulfation and gain other benefits?

    That's way more than I know, but it is what I recall - let's hope my memory is correct.

    HardTpLove
    Apr 11 12:27 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 322: Apr. 09 '14: Q4 & EOY 2013 Results & CC; CFO Resigns; David DiGiacinto Joins BoD; PV With Storage Financials; Petersen Worksheet Suggests PIPE Effects Nearing End [View instapost]
    NGS: You may have a point: one of the pathways to thermal runaway is the internal shorts created by the growth of dendrites and the oxygen supplied by the electrolyte.

    Sans the dendrite, the chance of internal short is reduced or eliminated. But sans the electrolyte being able to supply oxygen, the thermal runaway is harder to achieve.

    Absence of one or the other would reduce the chance of catastrophe. I think the most dangerous is the electrolyte portion.

    HardToLove
    Apr 11 12:17 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #270, April 2, 2014 [View instapost]
    (CPST): "Capstone Applauds the Introduction of American Microturbine Manufacturing and Clean Energy Deployment Act - H.R. 4428"

    Getting a short-term pop - I'm still not adding.

    "... would provide a 30% investment tax credit for microturbines, providing parity with tax incentives offered to fuel cells and renewable technologies".

    We know from past behavior that CPST's California cronies can be relied upon for this sort of stuff. Oh well, everybody else is doing it ... etc.

    Generally, positive for the company, but not worth the pop *today* that it's getting. Shorters will be on this like flies on stink I think.

    http://bit.ly/1kQyHRB

    HardToLove
    Apr 11 10:44 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 322: Apr. 09 '14: Q4 & EOY 2013 Results & CC; CFO Resigns; David DiGiacinto Joins BoD; PV With Storage Financials; Petersen Worksheet Suggests PIPE Effects Nearing End [View instapost]
    EM: Of course. I've documented the six consecutive days of last-minute trades substantially higher that price ranges going into the close. Every day only a few and of small volume.

    A bullish look is what they re designed to provide.

    The good and bad news is that they stopped a few days ago and the price highs and range have begun the "natural progression" down.

    HardToLove
    Apr 11 09:14 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 322: Apr. 09 '14: Q4 & EOY 2013 Results & CC; CFO Resigns; David DiGiacinto Joins BoD; PV With Storage Financials; Petersen Worksheet Suggests PIPE Effects Nearing End [View instapost]
    04/10/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 46, MinTrSz: 135, MaxTrSz: 15500, Vol: 240209, AvTrSz: 5222
    Min. Pr: 0.1750, Max Pr: 0.1900, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1782
    # Buys, Shares: 15 79009, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1797
    # Sells, Shares: 31 161200, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1774
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:2.04 (32.89% "buys"), DlyShts 38509 (16.03%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 23.89%

    I see a typo crept in to the 4/9 post (yesterday's). I corrected ...

    ARCA was in pre-market with a $0.249 offer and never moved it until 12:02, when some volume and bid/ask movement began to appear together. They plopped down an $0.18 offer ahead of ATDF and NITE. But it wasn't going to be easy for them today as we again have untoward aggression (he-he) by WABR: $0.179 offered four minutes later and $0.178 three minutes after that. Fortunately those offers and ARCA's $0.18 were taken and ARCA was back to $0.249 until 12:36 when ARCA again jumped ahead of the line with a $0.178 7K offer. Twenty-one minutes later a buyer finally stepped up and ARCA was out of the market.

    Something to keep in mind, maybe, is that NITE had a 200K offer at $0.21 at 12:32 and sat on it for the rest of the day. I suspect this will be hanging around hoping to get a push back up where they can unload. My take is that a drop lower will compel them to cut their losses and we'll see all or parts of that 200K being dissipated at either lower offers or silently hitting bids, which we can't see unless the offer happens to be visible at the time and the shares are sold from that aggregate volume.

    The average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 80% today is $0.0929 vs. $0.0904, $0.0884, $0.0865, $0.0848, $0.0831, $0.0819, $0.0816, $0.0812 and $0.0807 on prior days. 80% of today's VWAP is $0.1425 vs. $0.1485, $0.1397, $0.1468, $0.1505, $0.1522, $0.1399, $0.1332, $0.1338 and $0.1337 on prior days. These are potential prices for the next tranche of shares to the PIPErs.

    Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 0.00%, 2.70%, -0.54%, -84.50% and -90.36% respectively. Price spread today was 8.57% vs. 5.71%, 9.40%, 7.78%, 11.30%, 14.22%, 5.88%, 19.76%, 14.20% and 14.23% on prior days.

    These metrics were affected by two trades at the open for 2,000 and 700 shares at $0.19. There's five more I'll want to examine too. But for these two, removal ...

    The largest trades today were 15K and there were only two, both at $0.18.

    On the typical TA charts it will appear that we're trying to push up again, but with low volume. However, if we remove those six trades (four of which occurred in the first half-hour) totaling only 12.7K, we see that we topped right at $0.18 with some volume in the number and quantity of the trades. With a low of $0.175 that would yield a “gravestone doji”, not a good sign. That doji is not a guarantee that we'll move lower, but it is very suggestive when combined with the traditional and ...

    On the traditional TA front there's still no sign of upward pressure. No sign of downward pressure either. With very low volume, none of this is surprising.

    Today's high exactly touched my descending trend line. Keep in mind the high was established by two abnormal, for today, trades described above. Also keep in mind that no substantial number of trades or volume occurred anywhere above $0.18, our old sideways trading channel resistance.

    Late-day weakness continued to evidence itself, although still not pronounced. Two consecutive days though – might bear watching.

    The newer [inflection point calculations] version's chart pattern, which reduced it's weakening bias yesterday, has resumed it's trend of suggesting weakening prices near term. Contrary to yesterday's “just suggests the rate of descent may not pick up steam”, today suggests it is picking up steam.

    All the usual is in the blog here.
    http://seekingalpha.co...

    HardToLove
    Apr 11 09:04 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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