Seeking Alpha

H. T. Love

 
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  • Update: Capstone Turbine Snags Major New Order, Buy Recommendation Reiterated [View article]
    That one brought back memories - thanks CN!

    HardToLove
    Dec 17, 2014. 01:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 384: Dec. 17, 2014 [View instapost]
    ADF and BATS bots are probing on the bid side ... expect to see the days sixth trade soon ... next hour? :-))

    Flow joined the effort with a 1 share bid. This usually leads to something.

    HardToLove
    Dec 17, 2014. 12:40 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #276, November 27, 2014 [View instapost]
    Great trades Mercy!

    Nothing wrong with a ~12%+ one-day (several hour?) scalp.

    HardToLove
    Dec 17, 2014. 10:41 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 384: Dec. 17, 2014 [View instapost]
    12/16/2014: EOD stuff partially copied from the blog (up now).
    # Trds: 60, MinTrSz: 41, MaxTrSz: 8750, Vol: 35900, AvTrSz: 598
    Min. Pr: 1.0900, Max Pr: 1.1520, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 1.1353
    # Buys, Shares: 26 12369, VW Avg Buy Pr: 1.1302
    # Sells, Shares: 31 21947, VW Avg Sell Pr: 1.1391
    # Unkn, Shares: 3 1584, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 1.1244
    Buy:Sell 1:1.77 (34.45% "buys"), DlyShts 6447 (17.96%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 29.38%

    In the 12/12 note about the daily shorts I added to the header recently I included “... This would suggest the market would be moved lower so the MM(s) could make covering buys at a lower price ... [a couple more paragraphs about my understanding seems reasonably close to reality] ...

    Yesterday I mentioned the mildly positive things were mixed with some negative concerns, such as the volume remaining low and average trade size continuing to fall. Today the negatives took over the show as volume rose above the 10 and 100-day averages and VWAP moved below all the averages of $1.1589, $1.1942, $1.3957, $1.9568, $3.1218 and $5.4264 for the 5, 10, 25, 50, 100 and 200-day periods respectively. And this occurred on a much larger than average trade size as more and larger “large” trades absolutely dominated today.

    My newer inflection point calculations still have positive readings in the two shortest periods, but they are weaker and all the longer periods gave up the decreasing weakening trends and now show increasing weakening. Keeping in mind that volume (up) and buy percentage (down) are the primary drivers, this makes sense. Then we add in ...

    VWAP broke trend of steadily eking out small gains and fell -03.83%.

    If this continues I expect the USC (Unseen Support Crew) will be called into action again. I wonder if we'll have to see sub-$1 to bring them in again.

    I mentioned yesterday my concern that average trade size continues falling. It would appear to have recovered today, but for two things: one day does not a trend make and the average trade size was heavily skewed by several much larger than normal large trades: 3,000, 3,700, 3,800 and 8,750. I'm not saying to discount today's 598 average trade size, but ...

    Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved -5.23%, -4.00%, -03.83%, 114.34% and 329.80% respectively. Price spread today was 5.69% vs. 4.34%, 6.94%, 13.89%, 17.14%, 13.21%, 33.54% (twitchy day – see first note and trading breakdowns for 12/8), 4.83%, 7.68% and 8.18% on prior days.

    The larger trades (>= 500) occurred on 16 of the 60 trades, 26.67%. These 29,036 shares were 80.88% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $1.1366. 5 of the ...

    The other 44 trades, 73.33% of the day's trades, traded 6,864 shares, 19.12% of the days volume. The VWAP was $1.1301. 21 trades ...

    The usual is in the blog here.
    http://seekingalpha.co...

    HardToLove
    Dec 17, 2014. 08:40 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Swine Flu, MERS, Ebola And Medical News Concentrator September October 18, 2014 To ???.  [View instapost]
    WWT: I might disagree with his conclusion, but he laid out up-front what caused him to start thinking that way and laid out his considerations. So I found it useful even though he really didn't do a lot of deep digging in this article.

    Some of the comments were useful but others were just folks defending their positions I think. Anyway, a light read and it added something for me to consider in the future when I look at things ... at least on a comparative basis.

    When you are still early in the learning, as I consider myself to be, every little bit helps.

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    Dec 16, 2014. 06:04 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Swine Flu, MERS, Ebola And Medical News Concentrator September October 18, 2014 To ???.  [View instapost]
    "Is Novavax Really Worth 25 Times As Much As Vical?"

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    HardToLove
    Dec 16, 2014. 03:30 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 383: Dec. 07, 2014 [View instapost]
    12/15/2014: EOD stuff partially copied from blog (up now).
    # Trds: 91, MinTrSz: 11, MaxTrSz: 2000, Vol: 16749, AvTrSz: 184
    Min. Pr: 1.1501, Max Pr: 1.2000, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 1.1806
    # Buys, Shares: 48 8400, VW Avg Buy Pr: 1.1865
    # Sells, Shares: 37 6738, VW Avg Sell Pr: 1.1725
    # Unkn, Shares: 6 1611, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 1.1839
    Buy:Sell 1.25:1 (50.15% "buys"), DlyShts 1500 (08.96%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 22.26%

    The mildly positive things, such as better buy percentage averages, VWAP stability with small improvements and my newer inflection points having the beginnings of positive moves, are mixed with some negative concerns, such as the volume remaining low and average trade size continuing to fall.

    Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 0.01%, -2.42%, 00.35%, 172.83% and -55.32% respectively. Price spread today was 4.34% vs. 6.94%, 13.89%, 17.14%, 13.21%, 33.54% (twitchy day – see first note and trading breakdowns for 12/8), 4.83%, 7.68%, 8.18% and 10.77% on prior days.

    The larger trades (>= 500) occurred on 9 of the 91 trades, 9.89%. These 7,355 shares were 43.91% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $1.1785. 4 of the ...

    The other 82 trades, 90.11% of the day's trades, traded 9,394 shares, 56.09% of the days volume. The VWAP was $1.1822. 44 trades ...

    The usual is in the blog here.
    http://seekingalpha.co...

    HardToLove
    Dec 16, 2014. 10:30 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • REE/Strategic Minerals Concentrator, March 18, 2014 [View instapost]
    VB: After watching China, Lynas, Molycorp, GWM, ... and the economy, I'm suspecting that nothing comes to fruition in the time-line of my remaining lifetime, if ever.

    I'll just keep my hands clean until I see something really positive develop as stuff actually comes out of the ground and makes it's way to a real customer's hands. I might miss a lot of upside, but that's OK by me.

    HardToLove
    Dec 15, 2014. 06:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 383: Dec. 07, 2014 [View instapost]
    Rick: If you saw my earlier reply today ignore it. I checked ETRade's site and read the wrong line which had $1.18 (last trade so far today). Their site does show $1.20 for Friday.

    HardToLove
    Dec 15, 2014. 12:42 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 383: Dec. 07, 2014 [View instapost]
    I see SA doesn't like ftp urls, the NYE/ARCA source.

    This one ought to work.

    http://tinyurl.com/mdc...

    HardToLove
    Dec 14, 2014. 07:47 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 383: Dec. 07, 2014 [View instapost]
    For bats, there's two, the BZX and BYX - click one in the bar near the top that is labeled "Makets".
    http://bit.ly/1ssbeJB

    EDGE has two, but each has its own url.
    http://bit.ly/1ssbeJG
    http://bit.ly/1ssbcl4

    ftp://ftp.nyxdata.com/...

    The several others of which I'm aware report via FINRA, so you probably get all four(?) of those already.

    As mentioned in my first response, if new ones have been added I may not be on board with them and I don't know if they post corrections like FINRA had to do for ORF.

    There used to be one at the CBOE but it went out of business. Those I catch because no data comes and I e-mail and get told about it then.

    HTH,
    HardToLove
    Dec 14, 2014. 04:29 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 383: Dec. 07, 2014 [View instapost]
    I had mentioned in the past that when we moved to the exchange we wouldn't have the convenience of a single source. Fortunately, long before I started with AXPW I had been digging to educate myself and found the sites.

    I'll have to do a quick dig into my programs to get the urls ... back in a few minutes.

    HardToLove
    Dec 14, 2014. 04:01 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 383: Dec. 07, 2014 [View instapost]
    A couple possible spots include, due to the switch to trading on an exchange.
    - Daily short reporting is no longer in a single place. You have to consolidate them for yourself. If you miss one ...
    - Some of the exchanges' files are only available several hours later than the others. Two, IIRC, come in around 9ish? Left coast ones? So if you grab too early you *may* miss some (or not because if they had no shorts they may not report?).
    - Some exchanges don't report any trading totals if there are no shorts; this affects calculations only if you use them (which I do in my programs, but then I manually adjust - a possible source of error, but only in the calculated percentage since I don't mess with the short value).
    - As you mention, the exempt difference, but that should be relatively small. In my blog I attach a note for each day that has exempts explaining what would happen if they were factored in. I've not read the rule for exempt for a long time but ISTR it is for companies that don't have to report under reg ... crap! 204D or 206D or something similar? Anyway, I always use the non-exempt number since the exclusion doesn't affect results for my purposes. Regardless, for all of 2014 they total to only 22,173. I suspect, since I can't remember the rule, that these might even be erroneously marked. But for *my* purposes it doesn't matter.
    - Odd lots might not be included - while working with FINRA I did discover they were not and requested they include them, which they have ever since. I don't know if the exchanges include them in their totals. I do include them in my totals (trade vol only because *normally* I can't ID odd lot short sales myself), which would really only affect trade volume and the derived short percentage, and adjust my results accordingly. *Generally* they are a very small percentage, but on very low-volume days they tend to be a much large percentage of trades and could have substantial effect if they included many short sales (which we *normally* can't isolate out).
    - Corrections. Working with FINRA I found they were losing ORF (and maybe other? Don't know.) data. At that time they instituted the "Updated" file the following morning each day as part of their SOP (and that also had failures many times). I don't know if/how the exchanges do the same as I've never investigated yet.

    Hang on I'll gen a .csv file for you ... and while I'm at it I'll double check against my hysterical (sic :-)) ) derived stuff to see if it matches ... tick tock, tick tock ...

    Found a few errors in my historical derived stuff - one likely weather or outage related, others likely typos or corrections I didn't get. I've left them as found.

    OK. .csv file with pipe delimiters ('|") that includes daily 2014 detail reported (as of my current files - any posted corrections other than ORF I wouldn't have and FINRA even owes me one I now know I'll never get) and summary total for the same fields by reporting facility. If new ones have been added in the last couple of years, I didn't hear about and don't have them.

    Since formulas included operations over arrays, I saved everything in results form for you and the formulas disappeared. I can send formulas along if you want.

    http://tinyurl.com/n7v...

    HTH,
    HardToLove
    Dec 14, 2014. 11:56 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 383: Dec. 07, 2014 [View instapost]
    JohnM121: Agree! Holiday season(s) kill normal market behavior too! I would be surprised to see anything significant change during this period ... unless some neer-do-well was waiting for just this condition in which to do the dirty deeds.

    But I presume that neer-do-wells also vaction?

    HardToLove
    Dec 13, 2014. 06:54 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 383: Dec. 07, 2014 [View instapost]
    Last two trades:
    $1.2001 100 15:52:11
    $1.2030 100 15:46:40

    This from Power ETrade Pro's "Time & Sales" panel which shows, with my settings, every bid, offer and trade.

    HardToLove
    Dec 13, 2014. 06:50 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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