Axion Power Concentrator 237: May 16: Axion Power Reports First Quarter Results For 2013 [View instapost]
On the share price front, I'd like to start thinking from another perspective.
The value proposition might drive the electrode pricing? What do the competing technologies cost to perform the same function (nearly?) as well? Is there a price point acceptable to the end-users (meaning auto manufacturers in this case?) that is closer to those competing technologies' prices such that we command more margin without sacrificing (much?) market-share? I'm thinking performance for the cost being a viable metric here. If that price-point is available and passes through the battery manufacturer as well, then the projections we think of at the moment might be low.
Add in some period of a semi-monopoly position, regarding the IP and trade secrets providing a barrier to entry for certain technologies, and the fact that regulators will, if JP is correct, *mandate* a use and lifetime requirement similar to all other pollution control systems, ...
That's just the automotive market. Are there some advantages in the other markets that Axion also holds that add to pricing power when compared to competing technologies?
I think this might be a better starting point than just thinking of ourselves in *any* market as another commodity component. We might be components in a commodity, but that doesn't *necessarily* mean that our margins and pricing have to be commodity-like ... at least for some time?
ISTM that some period of increased pricing power must exist to enable recouping of the costs sunk to get to where we are in a reasonable time-frame *and* support on-going R & D for improvements and new product lines (large cell size, e.g?).
If we aren't growing we'll be dying, according to an old mantra. A commercial enterprise can never be static and that means you can't price at just a "maintenance" level. Every business customer will understand this, no?
Axion Power Concentrator 237: May 16: Axion Power Reports First Quarter Results For 2013 [View instapost]
John: I don't believe any big change in the semi-monthly short report will appear, other than some mormal shorts in the last 3 or fewer days of the reporting period that are the result of normal MM activity, as some of the shares (either backing sell orders or covering buys) that cover shorts may not have settled yet.. Similarly, IIUC that the certificate holders are really out, I expect the fails will not come back to previous levels either.
However, that "the certificate holders are really out" is the part I'm unclear on.
Axion Power Concentrator 237: May 16: Axion Power Reports First Quarter Results For 2013 [View instapost]
MrI: I think John is better qualified to look at that than I am. However, if there are certificates involved in those private placements, which I don't know, they'll likely show up in my fails-to-deliver stuff shortly. There's other reasons fails can occur, but they tend to be very infrequent, sporadic and very low volume.
Through the latest fails report, April second-half, there's no new fails for AXPW. That could change in May, of course.
Axion Power Concentrator 237: May 16: Axion Power Reports First Quarter Results For 2013 [View instapost]
MrHolty: "I assume that if it gets too bad Axion can go back to BMW and say got a #2?".
Based on the education from JP and Iindelco, I would think that BMW introduced two or three potential partners right off the bat. My thinking is this is suggested on a couple levels.
First, BMW wants to maximize the chance for success, *and* get the best price. Having a couple candidates increases the chance a deal will be struck and puts some of their current suppliers in competition with each other, helping to keep prices down - remember a battery is a commodity to the auto makers.
Second, if the decision was to introduce in Europe first, they could still have a single point of system failure if only one partner was engaged from the beginning. Redundancy, even if phased in over some reasonable time-frame, should be the desired configuration I think.
Axion Power Concentrator 237: May 16: Axion Power Reports First Quarter Results For 2013 [View instapost]
SMaurin: +1. JP's only responsibility as a participant is to provide best assessment when he chooses to do so, just as he would expect any of us to do.
I'm grateful that he takes the time and hope he never feels that participation here carries any other responsibilities or is a burden on him.
Axion Power Concentrator 237: May 16: Axion Power Reports First Quarter Results For 2013 [View instapost]
MrI: "I know your guess has been the MMs, and JP's the private placement holders".
Clarification: JP's private placement holders s/b long gone based on the change in short sales and fails to deliver (documented in another instablog I have up). My daily insta also has some numbers, going back several months (to August?) when we believed they were nearly exhausted. Numbers support that as well in the following times.
As to the MMs, I continue to believe that the new spate of MMs are handling shares not held by them or their owning (if any) broker. By rule, shares not controlled by the seller must be flagged short. So this is where I think the increase comes from.
By implication, the prior recent low short volumes and percentages were being fed in either from MMs owned by brokers that had the sell orders or the MMs were holding short-term long positions to play in the market. With stock prices were they are, a goodly number of shares might fit their risk-management parameters,
" has the 26.4 cent deal price as the upper number. Also interesting."
I've read in the past that often the market treats the price of cap raises as what value managment placed on the stock. I don't know if that's true or not. But there is likely a feeling that the new holders at $0.264 will be loathe to sell below that, so any buys below that s/b relatively lower-risk. Don't forget the capital raise also includes some purchase down the road (via the warrants? I'd have to double check) at $0.302, IIRC. This could also factor in.
"MAXM, the MM affiliate of the agent, has had a bid at 17 cents since the cap raise"
Yes, I noticed as they were "new" to us here. I think that's just one of those "you never know" bids.
D.G.: Give it the bees instead and you might not need it - drink for pleasure only. Of course, there's the possibility the bees are "a mean drunk", in which case, forget that idea.
Axion Power Concentrator 236: May 15: Axion Power Releases Quarterly Report For The First Quarter 2013 [View instapost]
Froggey: "Yeah, we’ve been looking to different options in different opportunities for strategic investors, but price hasn’t been what we’re willing to pay if you will. So the investments that we’ve had in the past have been investments in terms of financing, certainly the investors that we had last year were good investors. They have stuck with the company. We see them appear in the various lists of shareholders. They’re still there. They’re still with us. We have a different type of investment this time around that we be engaged in".
I have to interpret this as referencing the financial investors in the capital raise from last year.
Axion Power Concentrator 237: May 16: Axion Power Reports First Quarter Results For 2013 [View instapost]
48: "Testing that confirmed our improved battery was now providing 200 amps and allowing even an undersized Genset to combine with our batteries and produce enough power to pull a full 80,000 pound load."
But we also have the knowledge that it could accept 200, and more, amps on the charge as well.
Not a bad day! Some good news in the quarterly report (potential auto customer introduced Axion to potential partner(s?) for second-source of the PbC batteries) seemed to generate enough bullishness to offset the sellers' desire to exit, as evidenced by the buy:sell (all the averages are back near normal levels too now) and VWAP action today vs. Prior days: $0.2609, $0.2588, $0.2513, $0.2492, $0.2466, $0.2417, $0.2372, $0.2446 and $0.2592. I think the recognition that there's no assured near-term increase in revenues, leaving another capital raise on the table for a year or so out, muted the potential response.
Some context on the price action might be useful here. Note the prices where the weight of the volume is.
$0.2460-$0.2475: 018500 shares, 02.88% of volume, VWAP $0.2462 $0.2500-$0.2530: 102767 shares, 16.01% of volume, VWAP $0.2504 $0.2550-$0.2590: 124500 shares, 19.40% of volume, VWAP $0.2558 $0.2600-$0.2649: 123400 shares, 19.23% of volume, VWAP $0.2618 $0.2650-$0.2690: 226068 shares, 35.23% of volume, VWAP $0.2666
On the technical front, daily short sales continue elevated and all the averages I track, 10, 25, 50 and 100-day, have moved above the long-term calculated short sales trend line and are rising: 25.04 %, 16.08%, 11.02% and 11.55%. Daily trade volume is still elevated, compared to recent trends, and is in the process of normalizing ATM.
Average trade size is at the low-mid-range of what I think is retail. The market-makers, including the recent new entrants, are having to work harder. This is supported by the changes in bid/ask that were seen today, decidedly less bullish than prior days. Of 15 bid changes I spotted 6 were increases and 9 were decreases (some uncovered by exhaustion of better bids). Of the 13 ask changes, 4 were increases (some uncovered) and 9 were decreases. In spite of that, VWAP and buy:sell do show that there's not a large imbalance (yet?) in the buyers and sellers.
On my original experimental inflection point calculations, there's no change worth noting – expected with the buy:sell, the predominate metric, so balanced. On my newer version, which includes some other factors, six of six metrics improved. It is ready to signal a move up.
Details of “Dly Sht % of 'sells'” and inflection points omitted here.
Axion Power Concentrator 237: May 16: Axion Power Reports First Quarter Results For 2013 [View instapost]
48: "Regrets to all if any of my misplaced exuberances may have in the least pointed anyone astray. I will attempt to close it up better going forward... "
You aren't culpable there. We are all working in ignorance. It is the presentation of all the possibilities from all the POVs and spawned by the interactions that help us navigate the darkness presented to us.
All of us will be wrong and all of us will be right, likely at various points, as we go through this process.
Axion Power Concentrator 237: May 16: Axion Power Reports First Quarter Results For 2013 [View instapost]
The value proposition might drive the electrode pricing? What do the competing technologies cost to perform the same function (nearly?) as well? Is there a price point acceptable to the end-users (meaning auto manufacturers in this case?) that is closer to those competing technologies' prices such that we command more margin without sacrificing (much?) market-share? I'm thinking performance for the cost being a viable metric here. If that price-point is available and passes through the battery manufacturer as well, then the projections we think of at the moment might be low.
Add in some period of a semi-monopoly position, regarding the IP and trade secrets providing a barrier to entry for certain technologies, and the fact that regulators will, if JP is correct, *mandate* a use and lifetime requirement similar to all other pollution control systems, ...
That's just the automotive market. Are there some advantages in the other markets that Axion also holds that add to pricing power when compared to competing technologies?
I think this might be a better starting point than just thinking of ourselves in *any* market as another commodity component. We might be components in a commodity, but that doesn't *necessarily* mean that our margins and pricing have to be commodity-like ... at least for some time?
ISTM that some period of increased pricing power must exist to enable recouping of the costs sunk to get to where we are in a reasonable time-frame *and* support on-going R & D for improvements and new product lines (large cell size, e.g?).
If we aren't growing we'll be dying, according to an old mantra. A commercial enterprise can never be static and that means you can't price at just a "maintenance" level. Every business customer will understand this, no?
HardToLove
Axion Power Concentrator 237: May 16: Axion Power Reports First Quarter Results For 2013 [View instapost]
However, that "the certificate holders are really out" is the part I'm unclear on.
HardToLove
Axion Power Concentrator 237: May 16: Axion Power Reports First Quarter Results For 2013 [View instapost]
Through the latest fails report, April second-half, there's no new fails for AXPW. That could change in May, of course.
HardToLove
Axion Power Concentrator 237: May 16: Axion Power Reports First Quarter Results For 2013 [View instapost]
I don't know about that! ;-))
HardToLove
Axion Power Concentrator 237: May 16: Axion Power Reports First Quarter Results For 2013 [View instapost]
Based on the education from JP and Iindelco, I would think that BMW introduced two or three potential partners right off the bat. My thinking is this is suggested on a couple levels.
First, BMW wants to maximize the chance for success, *and* get the best price. Having a couple candidates increases the chance a deal will be struck and puts some of their current suppliers in competition with each other, helping to keep prices down - remember a battery is a commodity to the auto makers.
Second, if the decision was to introduce in Europe first, they could still have a single point of system failure if only one partner was engaged from the beginning. Redundancy, even if phased in over some reasonable time-frame, should be the desired configuration I think.
MHO,
HardToLove
Axion Power Concentrator 237: May 16: Axion Power Reports First Quarter Results For 2013 [View instapost]
I'm grateful that he takes the time and hope he never feels that participation here carries any other responsibilities or is a burden on him.
MHO,
HardToLove
Axion Power Concentrator 237: May 16: Axion Power Reports First Quarter Results For 2013 [View instapost]
Clarification: JP's private placement holders s/b long gone based on the change in short sales and fails to deliver (documented in another instablog I have up). My daily insta also has some numbers, going back several months (to August?) when we believed they were nearly exhausted. Numbers support that as well in the following times.
As to the MMs, I continue to believe that the new spate of MMs are handling shares not held by them or their owning (if any) broker. By rule, shares not controlled by the seller must be flagged short. So this is where I think the increase comes from.
By implication, the prior recent low short volumes and percentages were being fed in either from MMs owned by brokers that had the sell orders or the MMs were holding short-term long positions to play in the market. With stock prices were they are, a goodly number of shares might fit their risk-management parameters,
" has the 26.4 cent deal price as the upper number. Also interesting."
I've read in the past that often the market treats the price of cap raises as what value managment placed on the stock. I don't know if that's true or not. But there is likely a feeling that the new holders at $0.264 will be loathe to sell below that, so any buys below that s/b relatively lower-risk. Don't forget the capital raise also includes some purchase down the road (via the warrants? I'd have to double check) at $0.302, IIRC. This could also factor in.
"MAXM, the MM affiliate of the agent, has had a bid at 17 cents since the cap raise"
Yes, I noticed as they were "new" to us here. I think that's just one of those "you never know" bids.
MHO,
HardToLove
QC #257, May 10, 2013 [View instapost]
HardToLove
Axion Power Concentrator 237: May 16: Axion Power Reports First Quarter Results For 2013 [View instapost]
HardToLove
Axion Power Concentrator 237: May 16: Axion Power Reports First Quarter Results For 2013 [View instapost]
Anyway, I C & P'd the text into this comment from the page "Results of Operations", "Motive Transportation", page 10.
http://seekingalpha.co...
Note the "We are a few months into that program and it is going well".
HardToLove
Axion Power Concentrator 236: May 15: Axion Power Releases Quarterly Report For The First Quarter 2013 [View instapost]
I have to interpret this as referencing the financial investors in the capital raise from last year.
HardToLove
Axion Power Concentrator 237: May 16: Axion Power Reports First Quarter Results For 2013 [View instapost]
But we also have the knowledge that it could accept 200, and more, amps on the charge as well.
Se we're good to go up and down hills. :-))
HardToLove
Axion Power Concentrator 237: May 16: Axion Power Reports First Quarter Results For 2013 [View instapost]
# Trds: 138, MinTrSz: 160, MaxTrSz: 20000, Vol 641735, AvTrSz: 4650
Min. Pr: 0.2460, Max Pr: 0.2690, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2592
# Buys, Shares: 64 277317, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2601
# Sells, Shares: 70 354417, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2585
# Unkn, Shares: 4 10001, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.2549
Buy:Sell 1:1.28 (43.2% “buys”), DlyShts 218208 (34%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 61.57%
Not a bad day! Some good news in the quarterly report (potential auto customer introduced Axion to potential partner(s?) for second-source of the PbC batteries) seemed to generate enough bullishness to offset the sellers' desire to exit, as evidenced by the buy:sell (all the averages are back near normal levels too now) and VWAP action today vs. Prior days: $0.2609, $0.2588, $0.2513, $0.2492, $0.2466, $0.2417, $0.2372, $0.2446 and $0.2592. I think the recognition that there's no assured near-term increase in revenues, leaving another capital raise on the table for a year or so out, muted the potential response.
Some context on the price action might be useful here. Note the prices where the weight of the volume is.
$0.2460-$0.2475: 018500 shares, 02.88% of volume, VWAP $0.2462
$0.2500-$0.2530: 102767 shares, 16.01% of volume, VWAP $0.2504
$0.2550-$0.2590: 124500 shares, 19.40% of volume, VWAP $0.2558
$0.2600-$0.2649: 123400 shares, 19.23% of volume, VWAP $0.2618
$0.2650-$0.2690: 226068 shares, 35.23% of volume, VWAP $0.2666
On the technical front, daily short sales continue elevated and all the averages I track, 10, 25, 50 and 100-day, have moved above the long-term calculated short sales trend line and are rising: 25.04 %, 16.08%, 11.02% and 11.55%. Daily trade volume is still elevated, compared to recent trends, and is in the process of normalizing ATM.
Average trade size is at the low-mid-range of what I think is retail. The market-makers, including the recent new entrants, are having to work harder. This is supported by the changes in bid/ask that were seen today, decidedly less bullish than prior days. Of 15 bid changes I spotted 6 were increases and 9 were decreases (some uncovered by exhaustion of better bids). Of the 13 ask changes, 4 were increases (some uncovered) and 9 were decreases. In spite of that, VWAP and buy:sell do show that there's not a large imbalance (yet?) in the buyers and sellers.
On my original experimental inflection point calculations, there's no change worth noting – expected with the buy:sell, the predominate metric, so balanced. On my newer version, which includes some other factors, six of six metrics improved. It is ready to signal a move up.
Details of “Dly Sht % of 'sells'” and inflection points omitted here.
HardToLove
Axion Power Concentrator 237: May 16: Axion Power Reports First Quarter Results For 2013 [View instapost]
HardToLove
Axion Power Concentrator 237: May 16: Axion Power Reports First Quarter Results For 2013 [View instapost]
You aren't culpable there. We are all working in ignorance. It is the presentation of all the possibilities from all the POVs and spawned by the interactions that help us navigate the darkness presented to us.
All of us will be wrong and all of us will be right, likely at various points, as we go through this process.
MHO,
HardToLove