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H. T. Love

 
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  • Axion Power Concentrator 358 August 14 '14: S-1 For $15MM Share Issuance; Changed Loan, IP-Secured MDA; David DiGiacinto Appointed Chairman And CEO [View instapost]
    MrI: My 8/15 post went quite negative as I saw the fourth consecutive day of my newer experimental stuff more negative.

    Up till then I couldn't say it was a trend because they had flopped up and down so many times on low volume.

    HardToLove
    Aug 18 12:32 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 358 August 14 '14: S-1 For $15MM Share Issuance; Changed Loan, IP-Secured MDA; David DiGiacinto Appointed Chairman And CEO [View instapost]
    Futurescarla: ARCA is in today, an almost assured push lower. ATDF, ARCA and NITE have been active going lower on the offers.

    HardToLove
    Aug 18 12:30 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 358 August 14 '14: S-1 For $15MM Share Issuance; Changed Loan, IP-Secured MDA; David DiGiacinto Appointed Chairman And CEO [View instapost]
    Rick: All-time low was $0.08 1/16 and recent lows $0.0851 on 8/4 & 8/5.

    HardToLove
    Aug 18 12:28 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #273, August 15 2014 [View instapost]
    (NASDAQ:CPST): Pre-market $1.20 on large high-margin Factory Protection Plan Order. Sheesh - grasping at straws now?

    "Capstone Receives 9MW Factory Protection Plan Contract -- FPP Contract Backlog at Record of Over $55 Million "
    http://bit.ly/1BtlzeY

    Also, AGM 8/28 12:00 EDT webcast announced.
    "Capstone Turbine Announces Webcast of Annual Meeting of Stockholders"
    http://bit.ly/1BtlwQx

    HardToLove
    Aug 18 09:04 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 359 August 17 '14: 10-Q For Q2 2014; S-1 For $15MM Share Issuance; Changed Loan, IP-Secured MDA; David DiGiacinto Appointed Chairman And CEO [View instapost]
    If the link John provided is somewhat similar to what you had in mind, note that it is also linked in the header of every APC since the JP blog was published.

    Lots of folks seem to skip the information available in the header for some reason.

    HardToLvoe
    Aug 17 12:24 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 358 August 14 '14: S-1 For $15MM Share Issuance; Changed Loan, IP-Secured MDA; David DiGiacinto Appointed Chairman And CEO [View instapost]
    08/15/2014: EOD stuff partially copied from the blog (up now).
    # Trds: 98, MinTrSz: 200, MaxTrSz: 235000, Vol: 1458550, AvTrSz: 14883
    Min. Pr: 0.0900, Max Pr: 0.1079, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.0953
    # Buys, Shares: 36 226377, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.0972
    # Sells, Shares: 61 1227173, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.0950
    # Unkn, Shares: 1 5000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0947
    Buy:Sell 1:5.42 (15.52% "buys"), DlyShts 177450 (12.17%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 14.46%

    For me, the most important thing today is my concerns about what my newer inflection point calculations may be signaling. I won't replicate my thoughts here. But summarizing both the traditional and non-traditional TA considerations, sub-$0.09 VWAP seems to be near. The $0.09xx support held, so far, 60% longer than the $0.10 support did, so it's getting a bit long in the tooth.

    Details, for you masochists out there, are in the rest of the day's EOD postings.

    I had noted the status of “nothing changed” could be broken if any significant changes are reported in the 10-Q we expected. It was rather bland and devoid anything earth-shattering items I guess, but the change to that status was significant, in and of itself, in my mind. Whether others saw it that way and whether it affected today's trading I can't say. There were other factors that may easily have had more effect, mentioned in a brief discussion just before the daily listing of the newer inflection point calculations. For a fast jump to there, use your browser search for “false”.

    On the traditional TA front, the most significant thing, I think, is that we had a penetration of a short-term rising support, currently about $0.094. But it's really short-term and only has an origin and two prior touch points, so it's strength was not firmly established. Today made the fourth touch and we did close above it. The VWAP was also above it. So this could suggest that it will hold, but there's a lot of other negatives suggesting it won't.

    I think I mentioned a few days back that price range had moved back into the descending trading channel ... the descending resistance of that channel is rapidly approaching our trading range. It's currently ~$0.11, matching a short-term top seen ... I see the chances for breaking above $0.10 continuing to be very low.

    More concerning than the inability to surpass $0.10 is the pressure this implies will be coming to move lower. Our low $0.09xx has already outlasted the five days support seen at $0.10 by 60% ... Add in we are in the period of the month when weakness has been seen for many months. It may be this is still in play regardless of management changes, S-1 and 10-Q filings, etc. I have no way to know.

    All the oscillators I watch, except MFI, weakened. This transition from mixed ...

    ... More pressing is the pending “death cross”. I had revised my estimate of this to be middle of next week. Today I revise again to possibly Monday and certainly Tuesday. Readings today ...

    Yesterday I said we have entered short-term consolidation. Short-term is the operative word here. I don't believe we'll make medium-term. I'm not saying a close below $0.09 right away, but it sure looks like that's coming soon.

    My non-traditional stuff ... Worse, it's now negative regarding support at $0.09. First, my newer inflection point calculations have established a trend down with four consecutive days of weakening by all periods. The pattern on the chart is moving strongly in the direction ...

    There's a bunch more detail that may be of little interest, so ...

    The usual, and more, is in the blog here.
    http://seekingalpha.co...

    HardToLove
    Aug 16 01:44 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Capstone Earnings [View article]
    Mikelazar: LNG may be a non-starter IMO. It takes a *lot* of energy to liquefy that gas, keep it liquid, and more energy to transport it, as with any fuel of course. It's only advantage over CNG is energy density. It's really net energy negative. Most of it will be exported to foreign markets where pricing is tied to the equivalent oil energy content. That pricing is currently *much* higher than what is paid here in the states.

    You'll note the liqufaction plants are to be built (as permit applications are indicating) around export terminals. Cheniere's Sabine Pass is a good example. With many billions and several years needed to construct them, even if pricing here rises substantially, the rest of the infrastructure needed to deliver to end users is a long way from where it would need to be.

    If NG prices rose enough to make the LNG infrastructure build-out attractive, the fuel would be less economical. Better to go ahead and run diesel or gasoline in the MTs. Both have higher energy density and the CPST MTs meet all emissions requirement with no after-treatment.

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    Aug 16 09:45 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Capstone Earnings [View article]
    CN: Another issue re light automotive use is tht OEMs need something in the 8K hour lifetime range, with a commensurate cost reduction. As currently designed with 40K-80K between "overhaul", a major expensive R&D effort would be needed to even hope to approach these figures.

    As to weight, depends on which MT one uses? In most cases the MT would be lighter than the equivalent traditional IC engine - no heavy and structurally rigid block, no valve train, ...

    Add in a smaller footprint.

    Regardless, IMO OEM application is not a good fit for CPST products at this time s the OEMs demand pricing that leaves only razor-thin margins and demands redundancy in the supply chain to accommodate disruptions.

    CPST's old CMT-380(?) was a fun little expensive and wasteful project that never should have been attempted IMO.

    Ian Wright is doing it "right" IMO. A small, nimble company with good engineering, including in-house R & D that produced the electronic-shift transmission that is small and light enough to be carried by one man seems a much more likely viable platform to penetrate any automotive endeavor.

    And "smarts" are shown by *not* chasing private passenger OEMs.

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    Aug 16 09:28 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #273, August 15 2014 [View instapost]
    Looks like I missed the boat ... again.

    Thanks TB. It is good to hear that improvements that help both cost and durability are already underway.

    HardToLove
    Aug 16 05:39 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #273, August 15 2014 [View instapost]
    D-Inv: I've been thinking about a fencing product. Years ago I built an 8' privacy fence from 10' 4x4s and 12' 1x6s around my in-ground pool. All by myself, including manually digging the 18" post holes, doing the cement, ... Was young and energetic back then.

    Anyway, it has held up well (I alternated the 1x6s inside and outside to allow wind passage while still giving privacy) with the only maintenance needed being driving in some nails that want to back out occasionally.

    That treated lumber is not available anymore. The only hurdle I could see is sawing. I don't imagine a typical cutoff saw would be appropriate as the heat might melt the plastic and bog the saw.

    Something more like a paper cutter or laser would be better.

    Another thought I had, which expands on your idea a bit, is construction studs for housing. If the stuff can support tanks as a bridge, it ought to do well for housing as well. I would think the (possible?) flexibility might offer advantages in earthquake-prone areas too.

    Hm, I wander what it's insulation properties are.

    We could go wild on this stuff, huh?

    HardToLove
    Aug 15 07:30 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 358 August 14 '14: S-1 For $15MM Share Issuance; Changed Loan, IP-Secured MDA; David DiGiacinto Appointed Chairman And CEO [View instapost]
    D-Inv: Competing efforts to see if the $0.107 bid would come back? ;-))

    Then, as time slowly runs out the adrenaline begins to pump as the fight or flight response begins to kick in ...

    HardToLove
    Aug 15 05:42 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 358 August 14 '14: S-1 For $15MM Share Issuance; Changed Loan, IP-Secured MDA; David DiGiacinto Appointed Chairman And CEO [View instapost]
    Josh: I suspect it wasn't the 300K buyer if it's who I think it is. This individual PM'd me in the past and he is a long and strong holder that takes, I think, the low prices as opportunity only.

    IIRC, his orders flow through the MM that had the 300K presented.

    Based on memory, so could all be off-base,
    HardToLove
    Aug 15 05:40 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 358 August 14 '14: S-1 For $15MM Share Issuance; Changed Loan, IP-Secured MDA; David DiGiacinto Appointed Chairman And CEO [View instapost]
    GT: "someone will do it"

    I agree, but I think it will be smaller more nimble players that are not so closely tied to the Fed and the political system.

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    Aug 15 05:37 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #273, August 15 2014 [View instapost]
    D-Inv: Did you see the volume today? Ignore the $0.63 close - that's a normal 100 share trade that appears EOD to paint the tape.

    But we had 178,165 shares traded, far above the 10-day average of 36,350 as of yesterday.

    8/11 price broke above a long-term descending resistance and it confirmed the next day. Due to the low volume, the nearby 50-day SMA just above it and us being in the time of the summer doldrums still, I didn't want to holler about it.

    I took profits on some trading blocks I had in one account at $0.53 and added in two other accounts at $0.60.

    As TB mentioned, might be another year before it really develops, but I think I can get at least a few early "core" positions at this price with little downside risk.

    I'll also try and trade smaller blocks, but it's tough unless volume gets consistently higher. I suspect those shares used to pay debt monthly helps keep a rise and volume in check for now.

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    Aug 15 05:32 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #273, August 15 2014 [View instapost]
    I had missed that post. Just went back up looking for it, read it, and I think a good investment theme is ... He-he! Short the rails as the "small increase" in capex reduces short-term profit, and the ADHD market responds accordingly, and go long the major suppliers to the RRs - steel, Ecotrax ( :-)) ), and ...?

    The question is will the volume growth and demand regardless of infrastructure growth and availability give enough pricing power to the RRs to more than offset the capex increase and keep the Wall St. Wah-wah boys happy?

    Half jesting,
    HardToLove
    Aug 15 05:22 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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