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H. T. Love  

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  • Capstone Turbine Finds New Ways To Disappoint Investors [View article]
    D Lane: I wish it would install sooner - might make some Q CC this year show some positive operating profits or even EBITDA break even when other orders shipped and billed in the same periods are added in.

    HardToLove
    Apr 2, 2015. 02:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Speculative Play On UQM Beginning 2/7/2015 [View instapost]
    Audi unveiled their PHEV, the A3 E-tron, today. I wonder if they use UQM? Since they had tested them in various other models, it would make sense? But they could use other brands and styles in this model regardless of testing previously done.

    HardToLove
    Apr 2, 2015. 01:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Speculative Play On UQM Beginning 2/7/2015 [View instapost]
    That's a pretty useful and neat page D Lane!

    All the bus administrations need to do similar.

    HardToLove
    Mar 31, 2015. 11:11 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Speculative Play On UQM Beginning 2/7/2015 [View instapost]
    "but I wander what it does to folks trying to do TA on stocks with such low volume"

    It makes it more difficult because there's little "momentum". E.g., AMD runs 12MM-18MM shares daily very often and that produces trends that don't "jump" as frequently as in low-vol small-cap stocks. Intra-day spread often only 5/6 cents on a $2.50ish stock.

    AMD, sans up/downgrades, is much easier to trade on the TA IMO. And you can also use options on them. UQM has them, but they're not current and underlying price points are too far away last time I looked (some months back). I would expect high implied volatility on them - great for going short the the options, lousy if you want to get long the options. This because the high IV causes high premiums.

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    Mar 30, 2015. 05:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Speculative Play On UQM Beginning 2/7/2015 [View instapost]
    AHEM! I should have expected a "droop" rather than a "sag"! :-(( Could''a got them a few % points cheaper!

    Well, closed below our rising support and I'm *guessing* might do so tomorrow. But being it's "window dressing" season, I'll give it a pass until next week and then reassess the "sitiation".

    Volume bumping up today would normally be a concern on a move lower, but while "in season" not a concern right now for me.

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    Mar 30, 2015. 04:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Speculative Play On UQM Beginning 2/7/2015 [View instapost]
    Added some trading blocks at $1.11/$1.12 today, figuring EOM sag might offer an opportunity and then rebound.

    xxx<<--- fingers crossed.

    HardToLove
    Mar 30, 2015. 01:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 393: Mar. 26, 2015 [View instapost]
    I am no longer following the APC as it has degenerated into character assassination of formerly-valued contributors who happened to get it wrong, as if none of us has ever committed such a grievous sin.

    Along with patting ones self on the back as having been right so long ago, I find little of utility and a lot distasteful.

    GL to all.

    I hope APH never starts another issue of this (now) cesspool.

    HardToLove
    Mar 27, 2015. 09:09 AM | 19 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Speculative Play On UQM Beginning 2/7/2015 [View instapost]
    We had good low-volume behavior suggesting our up trend would hold the last two days.

    This mornings economic data which had GDP 2.2 in last revesion to Q4 when 2.4 was expected has the futures for Nasdaq 100 and Composite down ~27%/28%, S&P 500 down 23%-28% and many others down as well.

    If we don't see some volume with an upward bias I feel we need to be alert to a spill-over into UQM - may depend on the "burst basket" trades.

    Yesterday I "supported" the price range while looking out for a possible low-ball close with some buy orders at $1.11 and $1.12 that represented a substantial part of what ended up being our daily volume of 30.3K. Knowing that MMs ASA, ASE, EDGE, ... apparently have "bots" that immediately better bids and offers, my orders resulted in moving the bid to a stable $1.13 (after a somewhat unusual delay from them - low-volume effect?) initially and then it worked up from there.

    I plan to try and get any low-ball shares again with similar bids (price to be determined yet) today as I believe the usual market reactions to short-term "disappointing" news will follow it's usual "short-term memory loss" behavior and next week the market will resume chasing its own tail again.

    Of course, this is all speculation by me and should be heavily salted.

    HardToLove
    P.S. As I typed this S&P 500 has already recovered to pre-report levels (-0.17%). Talk about "short-term"!
    Mar 27, 2015. 08:57 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quickchat #279, March 19, 2015 [View instapost]
    Thx D-Inv! Added it to my watch list and starting DD.

    HardToLove
    Mar 26, 2015. 03:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Speculative Play On UQM Beginning 2/7/2015 [View instapost]
    Good find D Lane!

    Looks like $UQM might have made a really decent move in picking up Roush's business. Doesn't really matter if the energy conversion losses make it a less than optimal method. The over-riding concern with (faux?) "green" that drives customer purchases should provide UQM benefit.

    HardToLove
    Mar 26, 2015. 02:38 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Speculative Play On UQM Beginning 2/7/2015 [View instapost]
    "You are a brilliant guy" LoL!

    Stop ... or at least tell my wife! :-))

    It's only "sweat equity". I wish I was all that bright - my learning curve would be much foreshortened.

    HardToLove
    Mar 26, 2015. 10:32 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Speculative Play On UQM Beginning 2/7/2015 [View instapost]
    Just thinking that this might be useful for looking at choices ...

    Very low volume, as mentioned, at ~47.5K suggests indecision. This while the low sat right on top, AFAICT, of my rising potential support line at $1.13 (allow slack for old eyes and poor drawing skills).

    The early trades ranged from a high of $1.1799 (first trade of the day) for 100 shares and drifted down to $1.1396, 100 shares again, at 12:06 and then $1.13 at 12:58 - 136 shares. and again at 13:27 for 191 shares. after doing some $1.14 trades. Held stable for the next dozen trades or so around $1.15. The the late-day seller that I suspected would appear did so; starting at 15:43 9 trades, 8 at $1.14, for about 19K (including a large block trade of 17.6K) went off.

    Typical low-volume behavior. Notable is that 25 of the 96 trades were "burst basket" trades. These are trades that are part of a basket of stocks executed on one order. I suspect, but don't know, that these sorts of trades are something like an ETF-driven portfolio? If that's what they are the general market behavior today may have had an effect of keeping price low, especially on a very low-volume day?

    This seems somewhat supported by the buy:sell (less reliable on very low-volume days I think) which was ~1:13, based on volume, through 12:06. It improved to 1.08:1 through 15:21 (MMs balancing out intra-day shorts that are an effect of MM "services"?). The late-day seller appeared and ruined the ratio, taking it back to ~1:2.18 with that 17.6K block trade included.

    Overall, no strong suggestion of "what's next" using all this.

    The traditional TA considerations would hold sway here I think: low volume indecision; rising support now has origin and 5 solid occurrences of support; rising 20 and 50-day SMAs; we are just below mid-point of a generally rising and narrowing (just beginning) Bollinger band. The negative is that none of the oscillators I watch are doing anything dramatic: all are weakening (normal as we drop to test support) and most are near neutral readings.

    All told, we are still at a decision point and going long before we bounce is a short-term bet, as is selling.

    On a bit longer time-scale, we will see a "Golden Cross" in the next few weeks as the 50-day SMA will be rising at a slowly rising pace for a little while and the 200-day SMA will continue falling, but at a reducing rate. Any price move higher will shorten the time-frame until the bullish crossing occurs and falling price would lengthen the time.

    My last thought is that we should be seeing a quarterly report in the last week of May or so. Ignoring the likely financials, which I suspect would not yet be affected by what we know are positives, I'm thinking a generally positive tenor and response to the reporting will be seen. If others are of a like mind I think we should see a bullish trend develop leading into the report unless the overall market develops a really nasty trend that has spill-over effects into our little jewel.

    Just a reminder: I maintain a core position and trade some blocks around that. I'm currently trying to add some small trading blocks at current price levels, making a short-term bet that the rising trend support will hold and we'll get a well-defined rising trading channel defined. That potential channel has two possible rising resistances (I don't know which is the "real" one yet as there are insufficient touches): today $1.34 and $1.42 and rising at the same rate as the support, ~$0.0098 (IIRC) per day.

    HTH,
    HardToLove
    Mar 26, 2015. 06:43 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Speculative Play On UQM Beginning 2/7/2015 [View instapost]
    D-Inv: You may be able to get your transaction fee back if you call? They don't like to do it frequently, but ETrade has accommodated me several times over the years when similar happened to me.

    If you use the AoN you are less likely to get filled. It's one of the damned if you do and damned if you don't deals.

    HardToLove
    Mar 25, 2015. 05:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Speculative Play On UQM Beginning 2/7/2015 [View instapost]
    Well, I thought I got mine when I saw a *big* block trade and several smaller $1.14 trades go off, but no joy. That block trades was a "sell" of 17.6K @ $1,14.

    I'm hoping to get another shot tomorrow.

    Did you get yours? GL if so and if I get mine tomorrow I hope I get GL too! :-))

    HardToLove
    Mar 25, 2015. 04:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Speculative Play On UQM Beginning 2/7/2015 [View instapost]
    UQM looks like it will honor the rising support - currently ~$1.13 AFAICT.

    Volume is very low - sellers are not rushing in. Looks like they may be exhausted at this level. Last trade was 13:46 @ $1.16 for 200 shares.

    B/a $1.14 with ~1.4K presented (my bid is hidden AorN) and 400 presented on the offer at $1.15.

    Late in the day should see some sellers give up and hit the bid I think.

    Considering the overall market, this does look like an early good sign.

    xxx <-- fingers crossed.

    HardToLove
    Mar 25, 2015. 01:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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