Axion Power Concentrator 235: May 12: Axion Power Completes Private Placement For $9 Million And $1 Million [View instapost]
FYI: For those who watch intra-day action closely: apparently two trades were "undone". One was a 74K trade at 9:42:23 for $0.242, a "sell", and a 9K "sell" at 9:47:13 @ $0.24.
Both trades appeared on the Power ETrade Pro Level II and Time & Sales, and the 74K one appeared on the ADVFN "Trades" screen.
But the FINRA daily short report, which thankfully is the only place I have to look for in-market volume, shows a volume less these two trades, 778100. This matches what is seen on the ETrade platform now and explains why the ADVFN "trades" screen got scrogged.
Cost me about an hour to find why I had 83K more than what the platforms were showing.
Axion Power Concentrator 235: May 12: Axion Power Completes Private Placement For $9 Million And $1 Million [View instapost]
Wtb: I'm such a cynic now. I view this as another attempt to get their pet projects accepted at tax-payer expense, mostly, since they failed so miserably on the EV effort and Li-ion batteries ... so far.
I'm going to finish reading, hopefully with my mind open, but I'm sceptical to start with.
There's so much in the way of low-hanging fruit, why don't they pursue it with the same vigor? I suppose because it doesn't fit with their "grand dreams".
Axion Power Concentrator 235: May 12: Axion Power Completes Private Placement For $9 Million And $1 Million [View instapost]
DRich: I listened to the first one - great! On the matter of too many choices, it's natural - think fo the school of fish with a survival technique that enhances each individual fish's survival odds be increasing the choices of the predator when attacking.
As a stroke of luck, I've almost always had high optimism but low expectations - and so end up "fat dumb and happy" (still working on item one).
Low expectations regarding OPs' behavior seems to be especially beneficial.
D Lane: Prolly the same things we see? Great potential as they continue to expand their product line. Add in that REE prices haved tanked, giving (UQM) the potential of lower prices while still maintaining margin ... if volume starts to come in.
Today continued to show activity by market-makers relatively new to us, as noted yesterday. The most aggressive on the offer side were ARCA and CSTI, with ATDF surrendering it's “We're # 1” position. ATDF did occasionally get in front, along with PERT and CDEL, but they were pikers compared to those first two. As might be expected, based on our recent observations of their effect on daily short sales, the short percentage continued to be elevated compared to recent norms.
This apparently also affects average trade size – it's at a level I consider to be in the bottom area of retail size. The effect filters through to the share price as we continue a slow slide downward even with buy percentage being around normal ranges, as seen in the 10, 25, 50 and 100-day averages: 49%, 39%, 36% and 41% respectively. VWAP is pretty much following average trade size: $0.2609, $0.2588, $0.2513, $0.2492 and $0.2466.
I am heartened that, apparently, buyers are seeing a good risk/reward here – I expected a bit faster slide downward with these new market-makers entering the fray. I will be looking for a volume spike on a down move as another potential reversal point, but I really don't expect it before the quarterly report. I suspect that VWAP is holding up as well as it has because of the possibility of good news in that event, although I've become more jaded on my outlook on those Axion events. If I don't hear presentations typical of “commercial enterprises”, I'll be quite negative.
My original experimental inflection point calculations gave back some of the gains on four of the six periods. My newer version also weakened – 5 periods weakened.
Details of “Dly Sht % of 'sells'” and inflection points omitted here.
The first “bad sign” I want to note is the deterioration in average trade size: 7978, 5559, 5199, 4313 and 4063 – we are in the lower portion what I believe to be retail. This combined with the deterioration in VWAPs, $0.2563, $0.2609, $0.2588, $0.2513 and $0.2492 doesn't bode well going forward, near-term. Add in the continued higher levels of daily short sales – a significant increase from what we had been seeing – and I'm fairly pessimistic. A note about those short sales ...
As mentioned recently, they seem to be associated with the appearance of some market-makers that had not been that active for some long time in the recent past. Our first spikes were 4/24 and 4/25 (0.4147% and 0.3185%), but don't seem related to a change in my observed market-maker composition – the “usual suspects” were doing the usual things. We then dropped back into recently-normal ranges. From 5/3 forward, we had a more frequent elevated levels: 41.42%, 05.17%, 04.17%, 47.22% and 22.55%. On that date we saw the 100K offers to sell come in (UBSS and later CDEL?) and two additional changes: some normally “quiet” market-makers that just sat on an ask, for the most part, began getting more aggressive at trying to be the best offer on the sell side; we saw some market-makers normally not seen recently enter the fray – some on both sides of the trade (suggesting increased short sales were more likely?). The changed behavior, more aggressive on the offer side, included such as CSTI, TEJS, UBSS (they had also been aggressive a couple times in past months), ... The “new entrants” included LAMP (mostly aggressive on the bid side), AABA and ARCA (both active exclusively on the offer?), ASCM and VFIN (seen infrequently before this). I feel that the new market-makers account for most of the short sales increase as we didn't see much variation often before they entered. I think they are handling shares for brokers that don't have their own market-maker, which would require short flags if the shares were held at the broker at the time the market-maker made the sale. Some additional volume may be from the market-makers that became more aggressive. We don't know, because of lack of aggressive activity in the past, if their sells would have resulted in short flags.
A concerning thing at the moment is the change in the “Dly Sht % of 'sells'” metric, which had been at very low levels since ... last August? Today the sequence looks like this – note the averages: Aug Avg: 113.91%, min: 0.00%, max: 899.39% Sep Avg: 56.67%, min: 3.01%, max: 252.39% Oct Avg: 85.05%, min: 11.45%, max: 565.73% Nov Avg: 51.96%, min: 3.53%, max: 259.67% Dec Avg: 38.72%, min: 1.54%, max: 258.33%
The progression of the average through the first part of May might be concerning. May Avg: 17.33%, min: 17.33%, max: 17.33% May Avg: 15.45%, min: 13.58%, max: 17.33% May Avg: 60.47%, min: 13.58%, max: 150.50% May Avg: 47.84%, min: 9.96%, max: 150.50% May Avg: 40.10%, min: 9.15%, max: 150.50% May Avg: 52.53%, min: 9.15%, max: 150.50% May Avg: 52.97%, min: 9.15%, max: 150.50%
Note that May is quite a bit higher than the recent trend. I don't expect returns to the ranges when we had the certificated holders selling, nor when we had the “big uglies”, but I do think it's reflecting increased bearish sentiment in a cadre of holders that had not be actively selling over the last many months.
Offsetting that apparent bearish behavior, so far, is the buy percentage behavior: 37.8%, 24.8%, 72.5%, 4.81%, 54.4%, 58.4% and 57.4%. This has resulted in improvements in the three shorter-term periods in my original experimental inflection point calculations, with the 5-day moving above zero. However, even the recent volume spikes haven't been sufficient to strongly positively affect the longer-term calculations, but for the 100-day. So they are not shaping up, yet, to signal any price improvement.
My newer version, sensitive to additional factors, is similar in the three shorter-term periods, but does show improvement in two of the three longer-term calculations. They don't signal a move up, but suggest that the price deterioration rate is weakening.
Details of “Dly Sht % of 'sells'” and inflection points omitted here.
Axion Power Concentrator 234: May 8: Axion Power Completes Private Placement For $9 Million And $1 Million [View instapost]
A great read: thanks to you 48 and John for making it available. I see they are already on-board with vector control and PM motors/generators ...
I see great things ahead for this application.
Did you notice, near the end, "... as much as 500,000 hours" lifetime? Right there is a *big* savings. However, that may be a bit optimistic, based on a recent order (UQM) received to refurbish some stuff used in buses. Still, a hefty savings in costs and down-time for the operators even if the lifetime only matches current IC-based system lifetimes.
Axion Power Concentrator 234: May 8: Axion Power Completes Private Placement For $9 Million And $1 Million [View instapost]
Tim, Great explanation. Another possible benefit, to the folks getting those savings, could be a slowing of the rate at which freight is moved to the RRs. For certain routes I think ... or maybe to reduce "dead head" back?
Axion Power Concentrator 234: May 8: Axion Power Completes Private Placement For $9 Million And $1 Million [View instapost]
Now that Aion is a "commercial entity", can you offer mileposts, "forward guidance", measurable progress bars that we can look for, estimated top and bottom-line results, ... as do other commercial entities?
Axion Power Concentrator 235: May 12: Axion Power Completes Private Placement For $9 Million And $1 Million [View instapost]
Both trades appeared on the Power ETrade Pro Level II and Time & Sales, and the 74K one appeared on the ADVFN "Trades" screen.
But the FINRA daily short report, which thankfully is the only place I have to look for in-market volume, shows a volume less these two trades, 778100. This matches what is seen on the ETrade platform now and explains why the ADVFN "trades" screen got scrogged.
Cost me about an hour to find why I had 83K more than what the platforms were showing.
HardToLove
Axion Power Concentrator 235: May 12: Axion Power Completes Private Placement For $9 Million And $1 Million [View instapost]
I'm going to finish reading, hopefully with my mind open, but I'm sceptical to start with.
There's so much in the way of low-hanging fruit, why don't they pursue it with the same vigor? I suppose because it doesn't fit with their "grand dreams".
MHO,
HardToLove
Axion Power Concentrator 234: May 8: Axion Power Completes Private Placement For $9 Million And $1 Million [View instapost]
HardToLove
Axion Power Concentrator 235: May 12: Axion Power Completes Private Placement For $9 Million And $1 Million [View instapost]
As a stroke of luck, I've almost always had high optimism but low expectations - and so end up "fat dumb and happy" (still working on item one).
Low expectations regarding OPs' behavior seems to be especially beneficial.
HardToLove
A speculative play on UQM [View instapost]
MHO,
HardToLove
Axion Power Concentrator 235: May 12: Axion Power Completes Private Placement For $9 Million And $1 Million [View instapost]
HardToLove
Axion Power Concentrator 235: May 12: Axion Power Completes Private Placement For $9 Million And $1 Million [View instapost]
HardToLove
Axion Power Concentrator 235: May 12: Axion Power Completes Private Placement For $9 Million And $1 Million [View instapost]
05/10/2013: EOD stuff partially copied from instablog (up in ~1 hour).
# Trds: 76, MinTrSz: 200, MaxTrSz: 12500, Vol 270484, AvTrSz: 3559
Min. Pr: 0.2401, Max Pr: 0.2500, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2466
# Buys, Shares: 32 101250, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2480
# Sells, Shares: 43 168834, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2457
# Unkn, Shares: 1 400, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.2480
Buy:Sell 1:1.67 (37.4% “buys”), DlyShts 66455 (24.57%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 39.36%
Today continued to show activity by market-makers relatively new to us, as noted yesterday. The most aggressive on the offer side were ARCA and CSTI, with ATDF surrendering it's “We're # 1” position. ATDF did occasionally get in front, along with PERT and CDEL, but they were pikers compared to those first two. As might be expected, based on our recent observations of their effect on daily short sales, the short percentage continued to be elevated compared to recent norms.
This apparently also affects average trade size – it's at a level I consider to be in the bottom area of retail size. The effect filters through to the share price as we continue a slow slide downward even with buy percentage being around normal ranges, as seen in the 10, 25, 50 and 100-day averages: 49%, 39%, 36% and 41% respectively. VWAP is pretty much following average trade size: $0.2609, $0.2588, $0.2513, $0.2492 and $0.2466.
I am heartened that, apparently, buyers are seeing a good risk/reward here – I expected a bit faster slide downward with these new market-makers entering the fray. I will be looking for a volume spike on a down move as another potential reversal point, but I really don't expect it before the quarterly report. I suspect that VWAP is holding up as well as it has because of the possibility of good news in that event, although I've become more jaded on my outlook on those Axion events. If I don't hear presentations typical of “commercial enterprises”, I'll be quite negative.
My original experimental inflection point calculations gave back some of the gains on four of the six periods. My newer version also weakened – 5 periods weakened.
Details of “Dly Sht % of 'sells'” and inflection points omitted here.
HardToLove
Axion Power Concentrator 235: May 12: Axion Power Completes Private Placement For $9 Million And $1 Million [View instapost]
05/09/2013: EOD stuff partially copied from instablog (up later).
# Trds: 75, MinTrSz: 160, MaxTrSz: 29400, Vol 304708, AvTrSz: 4063
Min. Pr: 0.2451, Max Pr: 0.2592, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2492
# Buys, Shares: 43 174978, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2503
# Sells, Shares: 31 129380, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2477
# Unkn, Shares: 1 350, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.2540
Buy:Sell 1.35:1 (57.4% “buys”), DlyShts 68700 (22.55%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 53.10%
The first “bad sign” I want to note is the deterioration in average trade size: 7978, 5559, 5199, 4313 and 4063 – we are in the lower portion what I believe to be retail. This combined with the deterioration in VWAPs, $0.2563, $0.2609, $0.2588, $0.2513 and $0.2492 doesn't bode well going forward, near-term. Add in the continued higher levels of daily short sales – a significant increase from what we had been seeing – and I'm fairly pessimistic. A note about those short sales ...
As mentioned recently, they seem to be associated with the appearance of some market-makers that had not been that active for some long time in the recent past. Our first spikes were 4/24 and 4/25 (0.4147% and 0.3185%), but don't seem related to a change in my observed market-maker composition – the “usual suspects” were doing the usual things. We then dropped back into recently-normal ranges. From 5/3 forward, we had a more frequent elevated levels: 41.42%, 05.17%, 04.17%, 47.22% and 22.55%. On that date we saw the 100K offers to sell come in (UBSS and later CDEL?) and two additional changes: some normally “quiet” market-makers that just sat on an ask, for the most part, began getting more aggressive at trying to be the best offer on the sell side; we saw some market-makers normally not seen recently enter the fray – some on both sides of the trade (suggesting increased short sales were more likely?). The changed behavior, more aggressive on the offer side, included such as CSTI, TEJS, UBSS (they had also been aggressive a couple times in past months), ... The “new entrants” included LAMP (mostly aggressive on the bid side), AABA and ARCA (both active exclusively on the offer?), ASCM and VFIN (seen infrequently before this). I feel that the new market-makers account for most of the short sales increase as we didn't see much variation often before they entered. I think they are handling shares for brokers that don't have their own market-maker, which would require short flags if the shares were held at the broker at the time the market-maker made the sale. Some additional volume may be from the market-makers that became more aggressive. We don't know, because of lack of aggressive activity in the past, if their sells would have resulted in short flags.
A concerning thing at the moment is the change in the “Dly Sht % of 'sells'” metric, which had been at very low levels since ... last August? Today the sequence looks like this – note the averages:
Aug Avg: 113.91%, min: 0.00%, max: 899.39%
Sep Avg: 56.67%, min: 3.01%, max: 252.39%
Oct Avg: 85.05%, min: 11.45%, max: 565.73%
Nov Avg: 51.96%, min: 3.53%, max: 259.67%
Dec Avg: 38.72%, min: 1.54%, max: 258.33%
============ 2013 ===============
Jan Avg: 44.20%, min: 0.00%, max: 262.58%
Feb Avg: 20.90%, min: 2.88%, max: 55.65%
Mar Avg: 15.42%, min: 0.00%, max: 100.79%
Apr Avg: 40.63%, min: 0.00%, max: 690.95%
The progression of the average through the first part of May might be concerning.
May Avg: 17.33%, min: 17.33%, max: 17.33%
May Avg: 15.45%, min: 13.58%, max: 17.33%
May Avg: 60.47%, min: 13.58%, max: 150.50%
May Avg: 47.84%, min: 9.96%, max: 150.50%
May Avg: 40.10%, min: 9.15%, max: 150.50%
May Avg: 52.53%, min: 9.15%, max: 150.50%
May Avg: 52.97%, min: 9.15%, max: 150.50%
Note that May is quite a bit higher than the recent trend. I don't expect returns to the ranges when we had the certificated holders selling, nor when we had the “big uglies”, but I do think it's reflecting increased bearish sentiment in a cadre of holders that had not be actively selling over the last many months.
Offsetting that apparent bearish behavior, so far, is the buy percentage behavior: 37.8%, 24.8%, 72.5%, 4.81%, 54.4%, 58.4% and 57.4%. This has resulted in improvements in the three shorter-term periods in my original experimental inflection point calculations, with the 5-day moving above zero. However, even the recent volume spikes haven't been sufficient to strongly positively affect the longer-term calculations, but for the 100-day. So they are not shaping up, yet, to signal any price improvement.
My newer version, sensitive to additional factors, is similar in the three shorter-term periods, but does show improvement in two of the three longer-term calculations. They don't signal a move up, but suggest that the price deterioration rate is weakening.
Details of “Dly Sht % of 'sells'” and inflection points omitted here.
HardToLove
Swine Flu AND Medical News Concentrator April 25, 2013 To ??? [View instapost]
HardToLove
Axion Power Concentrator 234: May 8: Axion Power Completes Private Placement For $9 Million And $1 Million [View instapost]
HardToLove
Axion Power Concentrator 234: May 8: Axion Power Completes Private Placement For $9 Million And $1 Million [View instapost]
Apologies!
HardToLove
Axion Power Concentrator 234: May 8: Axion Power Completes Private Placement For $9 Million And $1 Million [View instapost]
I see great things ahead for this application.
Did you notice, near the end, "... as much as 500,000 hours" lifetime? Right there is a *big* savings. However, that may be a bit optimistic, based on a recent order (UQM) received to refurbish some stuff used in buses. Still, a hefty savings in costs and down-time for the operators even if the lifetime only matches current IC-based system lifetimes.
HardToLove
Axion Power Concentrator 234: May 8: Axion Power Completes Private Placement For $9 Million And $1 Million [View instapost]
Great explanation. Another possible benefit, to the folks getting those savings, could be a slowing of the rate at which freight is moved to the RRs. For certain routes I think ... or maybe to reduce "dead head" back?
HardToLove
Axion Power Concentrator 234: May 8: Axion Power Completes Private Placement For $9 Million And $1 Million [View instapost]
The old methods have grown quite distasteful.
HardToLove