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H. T. Love

 
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  • QuickChat #276, November 27, 2014 [View instapost]
    PY: Why would you want to short an *illliquid* (very) $0.40 stock?

    When you get in you might not be able to get out. The WWT link might be a pumper, but the company has sales (multiples over time, and several well beyond "for trial" orders), acquired a recycling facility that had revenues to assure their supply chain through vertical integration and even today's repeat order for the Struxure construction mats is just plain-vanilla (except for the customer testimonial included) small-cap PR. No pump.

    http://bit.ly/1wXxn9o

    I keep my position reasonable for the nature of the company and the market illiquidity, as I hope all do.

    You might enjoy visiting their web site.

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    Dec 9, 2014. 01:40 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #276, November 27, 2014 [View instapost]
    James: I'll go read it, but I saw nothing in the shareholder's letter that put me off.

    WWT's link includes this in the small print: "We are engaged in the business of marketing and advertising companies for monetary compensation. Never invest in any stock featured on our site or emails unless you can afford to lose your entire investment. The disclaimer is to be read and fully understood before using our site, or joining our email list. PLEASE NOTE WELL: SmallCapTraders.com and its employees are not a Registered Investment Advisor, Broker Dealer or a member of any association for other research providers in any jurisdiction whatsoever."

    Now I'm sure anyone that pays attention to that publication is likely aware of the "paid" proviso.

    I caught when I initially read it.

    Looking at the SA article, I note right undet the IPA logo is "short Only". An outfit like that probably has a newsletter that makes them $, so even if they can't short this one, they get some free PR via SA.

    I'm reading now, but probably won't waste time commenting on the article..

    HardToLove
    Dec 9, 2014. 01:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A speculative play on UQM [View instapost]
    Thanks D Lane!

    BTW, are you *sure* I'm the best UQM trader you know? :-))

    Right now, my "spotty" side seems dominant as the usual metrics seemed to be unhelpful. E.g., I thought that 1:9 buy:sell might suggest sellers were gone. Subsequently I saw 1:15 on high volume! =8-O

    Today it's 1.23:1 and I'm fighting my urge to add!

    If I win that fight (and don't buy) I'll probably regret it.

    Trying to understand the action, my best guess is the general market down trend has folks going to cash in a big way as the oil prices drag the market lower.

    That looks like one to put in the old memory bank for *stronger* consideration than I gave it this time.

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    Dec 9, 2014. 11:58 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 383: Dec. 07, 2014 [View instapost]
    Baz: Total Buying $: 42,717.52 today, give or take a smidgen.

    HardToLove
    Dec 9, 2014. 11:32 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 383: Dec. 07, 2014 [View instapost]
    R.A." "Somebody shorting at $1.00 today "

    0 yesterday, 200 shares today - that *includes* any from MMs, of which I suspect 0.

    HardToLove
    Dec 9, 2014. 11:31 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 383: Dec. 07, 2014 [View instapost]
    PY & Amouna: IMHO you're both wrong. Recall that the SEC filing contained a paragraph or two that stated MAXIM would trade the stock (ostensibly to support it? Can't recall).

    From what I can tell, that's what happened. Sudden *big* improvement in buy:sell from the long-established trend, sudden improvement in the long-time volume trend, sudden intra-day improvement in buy:sell and volume when VWAP hit $0.9722(?), daily shorts zilch (two days) even on today's *high* (relative to recent) buy percentage. This last item says some MM/broker that had shares under their control was in the market. An MM is permitted by SEC/FINRA rules to be on both sides of the trade simultaneously. When you buy/sell from/to your, or your customers' accounts (i.e. intra-borker[sic :-)]/MM), no short flag is required.

    All the non-emotional evidence suggests this is what happened today.

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    Dec 9, 2014. 11:23 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 383: Dec. 07, 2014 [View instapost]
    Rick: Having seen (CPST) fight the de-listing fight, you are correct about the appeals. A company can trade for *many* months by the time all appeals and possible paths available are taken. That also matches with my vague memory of actually reading the whole published process from NASDAQ once long ago.

    HardTolove
    Dec 9, 2014. 11:14 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 383: Dec. 07, 2014 [View instapost]
    12/08/2014: EOD stuff partially copied from the blog (up now).
    # Trds: 233, MinTrSz: 5, MaxTrSz: 5478, Vol: 80616, AvTrSz: 346
    Min. Pr: 0.9450, Max Pr: 1.2620, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 1.0611
    # Buys, Shares: 140 40202, VW Avg Buy Pr: 1.0626
    # Sells, Shares: 80 31807, VW Avg Sell Pr: 1.0471
    # Unkn, Shares: 13 8607, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 1.1058
    Buy:Sell 1.26:1 (49.87% "buys"), DlyShts 200 (00.25%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 0.63%

    For the second consecutive day we see low shorts, 0 yesterday and 200 today, both from ARCA. This exchange was the one seen in the past that was a key indicator of price being under pressure intra-day from PIPErs, a deal set up by MAXIM, the same "investment bank" that's "helped" us with this one by inserting a "cashless conversion" feature into the financing agreement after most investors had been lured in. MAXIM also states in the SEC filing that they may trade, in all manners, the stock on the open market. They have stock in-house (both in customer accounts and their own) from the financing and their MM function allows them to be on both sides of the trade, by SEC/FINRA rules, simultaneously. The low shorts and today's "twitchy" action (including large intra-day gaps in price) suggests MAXIM and/or their minions were present today. BTW, I'm not suggesting ARCA is the exchange used by MAXIM. That would be hard to ascertain because exchanges with no shorts that day may not report their trade volumes and ARCA had only 800 shares traded (meaning 25% short). Some exchanges do report even when they have no short volume. Today they reported 19,920, 15,120 of which was from EDGX. I would suspect either EDGX or one of the ones that didn't report as the exchange used by MAXIM.

    Today volume returned with a vengeance, above the 10, 25, 50 and 100-day averages ...

    VWAP was down another -16.52% today, bringing us to -32.29% from 11/20's $1.5672. Since we listed and started trading on NASDAQ 10/24 we're down -66.28% from 10/23's VWAP of $3.1463. The first trading day after the 50:1 reverse-split on 9/5 (VWAP $4.4133), 9/8 had a VWAP of $5.2195 and we are down -79.67% from that.

    With today's twitchy, and IMO likely manipulated price action, there's no point in looking at discounting some “outlier” trades – just too many of them.

    Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved -23.79%, -2.92%, -16.52%, 421.31% and infinity (200/0) respectively. Price spread today was 33.54% (twitchy day – see first note and trading breakdowns for 12/8) vs 4.83%, 7.68%, 8.18%, 10.77%, 5.73%, 2.86%, 7.75%, 7.59% and 6.72% on prior days.

    The larger trades (>= 500) occurred on 48 of the 233 trades, 20.60%. These 54,912 shares were 68.12% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $1.0625. 22 of the ...

    The other 185 trades, 79.40% of the day's trades, traded 25,704 shares, 31.88% of the days volume. The VWAP was $1.0580. 118 trades ...

    The usual is in the blog here.
    http://seekingalpha.co...

    HardToLove
    Dec 9, 2014. 11:08 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 383: Dec. 07, 2014 [View instapost]
    Probably just there to force buyers to bid higher for the 9K bidder's offer on the other side.

    HardToLove
    Dec 8, 2014. 01:53 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 383: Dec. 07, 2014 [View instapost]
    Profundo!
    Dec 8, 2014. 06:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #276, November 27, 2014 [View instapost]
    SD: http://seekingalpha.co...

    HardToLove
    Dec 8, 2014. 05:49 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #276, November 27, 2014 [View instapost]
    SHB: "... why DID the stocks fall so drastically when crude prices dropped? O&G stock prices have been driven up in the hunt for returns, along with seemingly ALL US stocks".

    That makes sense if my memory serves. ISTR that recently the S&P composite PE was around 18, very high compared to a historical norm of 12? That's an "intended consequence" of the Fed actions and the resulting bubble doesn't go unnoticed by the investing community.

    That results in a "skittish" community, a prerequisite for a really decent popping of the bubble, ignoring any credit (leverage) effects. We know from recent news that margin is at extraordinary levels.

    High PE + High Margin + (dis)inflation + skittish investor + Anticipated reduction of "free money" = an unstable pile of sand ... upon which stands the house of cards.

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    Dec 8, 2014. 05:47 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 382: Nov. 22, 2014 [View instapost]
    12/05/2014: EOD stuff partially copied from blog (up now).
    # Trds: 37, MinTrSz: 10, MaxTrSz: 3700, Vol: 17864, AvTrSz: 483
    Min. Pr: 1.2400, Max Pr: 1.2999, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 1.2683
    # Buys, Shares: 8 3344, VW Avg Buy Pr: 1.2728
    # Sells, Shares: 26 12220, VW Avg Sell Pr: 1.2639
    # Unkn, Shares: 3 2300, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 1.2851
    Buy:Sell 1:3.65 (18.72% "buys"), DlyShts 0 (00.00%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 0.00%

    To have 0 shorts with this volume is extremely unusual. This says that either ... a lot of intra-MM/broker trading, which seems most likely. With this volume though that also seems to suggest consideration of who is doing the selling and buying for these trades. Is it really reasonable ... In that case I would presume that some "PIPEr-like" players were involved, maybe planning on a cashless conversion play down the road by forcing ever-lower prices? Since we again have Maxim and at least one prior PIPEr involved ...

    Volume continues its inexorable (seemingly!) slide lower ... today's ~17.9K is below the 10, 25, 50 and 100-day averages, in thousands, of 24.44, 65.28, 55.00 and 34.42 respectively. This “below all the averages” is too frequent for a “healthy” market in a symbol IMO.

    VWAP was down another -03.67% today, bringing us to -18.89% from 11/20's $1.5672, worse than 12/1's reading of -15.63%. More depressing, ... we're down -59.60% from 10/23's VWAP of $3.1463. Worse, the first trading day after the 50:1 reverse-split on 9/5 (VWAP $4.4133), 9/8 had a VWAP of $5.2195 and we are down -75.65% from that.

    Of course we knew that already.

    Note the following price spread was affected by two low-ball trades ...

    The high was set by the first trade of the day at 9:58:44 – 300 shares at $1.2999.

    The next lower trades were ...

    Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved -1.82%, -4.42%, -03.67%, -60.88% and -100.00% respectively. Price spread today was 4.83% vs. 7.68%, 8.18%, 10.77%, 5.73%, 2.86%, 7.75%, 7.59%, 6.72% and 16.20% on prior days.

    The larger trades (>= 500) occurred on 8 of the 37 trades, 21.62%. These 12,883 shares were 72.12% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $1.2664. 2 of the ...

    The other 29 trades, 78.38% of the day's trades, traded 4,981 shares, 27.88% of the days volume. The VWAP was $1.2730. 6 trades ...

    The usual is in the blog here.
    http://seekingalpha.co...

    HardToLove
    Dec 6, 2014. 11:29 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #276, November 27, 2014 [View instapost]
    WWT: Yep! IIRC got to ~$150/bbl before the retrace began. 'Course we had photos (in articles linked right here in the QCs) of laden tankers sitting in obscure places loaded to the gills (reportedly the squids buying and holding) as price continued inexorably higher.

    HardToLove
    Dec 6, 2014. 10:46 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #276, November 27, 2014 [View instapost]
    WWT: That thesis seems heavily dependent on demand from Asia, in general, and China and Japan specifically.

    IIRC, they are not exhibiting growth currently and, as SHB(?) mentioned recently, "Dr. Copper", as tracked by (JJC), has really ugly 3, 2 and 1-year charts. The 1-year tail is reflecting the recent USD strength, to some degree I'm sure, but even before that it was ugly, ugly, ugly.

    If we throw in the EZ weakness, and consider whether the "Drahgi Effect" will actually be such, maybe some caution is warranted?

    I can certainly see fertile ground down the road as the weak AUD combines with an upswing in economic activity in general, but I'm thinking now would be a bit "early"?

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    Dec 6, 2014. 10:39 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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