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H. T. Love  

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  • A Speculative Play On UQM Beginning 2/7/2015 [View instapost]
    The new *possible* rising channel I'm looking at has a resistance at $1.40 today. It rises $0.0092/day. The rising support rises at about the same rate and is at ... $1.11xx AFAICT (my drawing skills and eyes are not all that perfect).

    "Breaking above" is determined by the close and a confirmation the next day with another close above.

    Regardless, with today's volume *looking* right now like it will be higher than yesterday and above the 10-day average, this does look like a potentially good close with a potential break up, although I don't see a "channel", just a price point that has acted as resistance in the past.

    PPS is pushing the 200-day SMA today - look for some difficulty in breaking above that. It's also pushing the upper Bollinger - add some more potential difficulty due to that.

    The oscillators I watch are mixed - some showing improvement others not (yet).

    All told, if we do have an upward trend developing I would not be surprised to see a few days more needed for the signs of a *strong* likelihood to develop.

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    Mar 23, 2015. 12:22 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • REE/Strategic Minerals Concentrator, March 18, 2014 [View instapost]
    I agree Motion - they did alright and managed to touch upon the major past issues and current concerns IMO. I especially like that they highlighted that our defense infrastructure is totally dependent on the Chinese and the F-35 should be an eye-opener for anyone with those concerns.

    Like you, would be surprised if any good comes of it though.

    HardToLove
    Mar 23, 2015. 09:01 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Capstone Turbine Finds New Ways To Disappoint Investors [View article]
    SHB: I agree. About the only wear point I can see would be the air bearing and the shaft and those should be minimal on the shaft and correlated by the number of start/stop cycles. I would expect that it would be the air bearing that would get the wear, not the shaft.

    The turbines might be subject to deterioration due to thermal expansion and contraction as microscopic surface defects are almost impossible to eliminate completely? Number of cycles would have an effect here too? That could be ameliorated if the new austinetic alloy was used for the turbine but I don't recall hearing of plans for that (could be they will but I just don't know?). AFAIK it's only intended for the recuperator due to the higher temp tolerance, less thermal creep (longer lifetime) and fewer and shallower surface defects, and the protective corrosion barrier forms more quickly.

    I presume deterioration might also occur due to corrosive effects of high-temp operation in the presence of fuels and oxygen though? This seems supported by the stated need to inspect and R & R the injectors, if needed, which do nothing but squirt fuel mixture into the chamber.

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    Mar 23, 2015. 08:47 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Capstone Turbine Finds New Ways To Disappoint Investors [View article]
    D Lane: <*blush*>. Thanks.

    I've been dinking with $CPST since ~2007/8. I immediately loved the technology and took the time to read all the corporate governance docs and thought they looked good. New management had just come on-board and was initially committed to managing to cash-flow.

    They eventually lost their way on that for a while and did dumb things like the CMT-380(?) - cool but nothing but fluff for a market they would never penetrate.

    But I kept with them, in and out sometimes, figuring that enough remedial 2x4s upside the head would get them back on track. Last couple years they seem to be there.

    The last thing they need to start fixing (they've made good progress on distributors, caution on dispensing credit, starting to diversify their markets, ...) IMO is the veracity of their profitability predictions. I think they've no credibility in the market ATM (Uh, not a cash machine - "At The Moment").

    Well, I could also argue that compensation needs to be more affected by repeated lack of results matching predictions. Voracious consumption of cash by those compensations seems out of line to me.

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    Mar 23, 2015. 08:35 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 392: Mar. 14, 2015 [View instapost]
    "This can be done with options and shares"

    There should be no options available for AXPW?!

    HardToLove
    Mar 23, 2015. 08:17 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 392: Mar. 14, 2015 [View instapost]
    Tim (a.k.a KIAS!) Good to see you're still alive and kicking!

    Other than AXPW, all going well?

    HardToLove
    Mar 23, 2015. 08:16 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Capstone Turbine Finds New Ways To Disappoint Investors [View article]
    Solar: Good thoughts but I'm recalling how much on-going warranty expense kept progress lower than otherwise might have been seen as $CPST tried to keep a good reputation regardless of early problems.

    In the current scenario they could easily decide to give up some of the early revenue and margin gains from the C-250 to make a better first splash when they do go out.

    Of course, when you're looking at 4 instead of 5 C-200s to make a C-1000 you're talking about giving up some potentially very impressive margin gains and that could be difficult to ignore. A stout spine would certainly be needed because they badly need to progress towards profitability ASAP I think.

    I have no doubt they'll make the call - I'm just combining this sort of consideration with TA stuff to try and pick a good add point where I can at least watch pps remain "flattish" instead of going down.

    BTW, I realized that link I posted above could be mistaken as being mine. That's not me there. That's the person with the "unconfirmed" claim that 'tutes and mutuals have started to exit already.

    HardToLove
    Mar 22, 2015. 04:53 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 392: Mar. 14, 2015 [View instapost]
    Having worked with many bright people over the "ages", I found that some small percentage has great difficulty with the minimal "social skills" - and *I* am certainly not one to cast stones about that.

    Anyway, "I bite my tongue quite often without anyone knowing" reminds me that I ameliorated my own deficiency, somewhat, by getting temporary cases of lock jaw. :-))

    Sometimes that extra fraction of a second helped me - other times not. What I did find was that the more I did it the less I had to do it! Might have had something to do with aging though - I can't say for sure.

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    Mar 22, 2015. 04:40 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quickchat #279, March 19, 2015 [View instapost]
    Mark: Fisher (ex-FED guy) commented that the Fed has now conditioned the market just like Pavlov's dogs. He said it's made the market "lazy" and it responds to Fed utterances rather than doing the work a market would normally do.

    Can't say I disagree.

    HardToLove
    Mar 21, 2015. 08:12 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quickchat #279, March 19, 2015 [View instapost]
    I wonder if it's related to investing in "Share Buybacks" with all the "free" money instead of productive assets. Or maybe it's "chicken and egg"? Conditions don't warrant investment so we buy back shares or because we bought back shares rather than investing that caused the conditions to become unfavorable for investment?

    If the EZ QE has the same effect as ours will we see big EZ companies buying back shares rather than investing too?

    I don't know if its even related, but it did cross my mind.

    After all, when money is almost free and seemingly we have a never-ending supply of it, why "husband" it? If we end up causing another economic disturbance they'll give us more just like before.

    We must prevent pure capitalist response to "inefficient use of capital" as it might bother some of those most dependent on financial manipulation.

    MHO and I realize I wasted the bits on this ...

    HardToLove
    Mar 21, 2015. 08:07 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • REE/Strategic Minerals Concentrator, March 18, 2014 [View instapost]
    Motionstream: Round two of "The REE Crisses" with again no action taken to ameliorate the problem?

    Wouldn't surprise me.

    HardToLove
    Mar 21, 2015. 07:51 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Capstone Turbine Finds New Ways To Disappoint Investors [View article]
    CN: "As to the latest downward move ..."

    Was thinking about that this A.M. and posted on another board about it.

    I'm now suspecting *some* (maybe a lot?) of it is due to institutional investors and mutual funds that have price criteria exiting their positions. Add in that we are now in "window dressing" season when folks want to dump their losers and add to their winners to get the books prettied up and make their bonuses ...

    I captured a snapshot from Yahoo of the "major holders" this A.M. so we can compare when EOQ reports get filed. Unconfirmed, by me thus far, assertions by others on that board claims that institutional and mutual funds have already started cutting back.

    Here's the post if you want to check on that.
    http://bit.ly/1FPaF5V

    HardToLove
    Mar 21, 2015. 07:22 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Capstone Turbine Finds New Ways To Disappoint Investors [View article]
    Solar: "250 KW turbine is most likely due for introduction to commercial markets in 2016 and this would provide one more cost improvement to the company".

    I'd be a bit cautious on that "commercial" part. I'm not expecting first "beta" customer(s) until late this year. And then a period to get customer(s) results and make sure everything was hunky-dory.

    In light of a couple niggling, but important, warranty issues on the C-200 this would seem a prudent path.

    That said, the desire to generate revenues can sometimes overcome common sense.

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    Mar 21, 2015. 07:15 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Capstone Turbine Finds New Ways To Disappoint Investors [View article]
    Solar: Another "fuzzy memory" tells me I watched one of the videos on CPST site or read an article that had the end user saying they were well past the 40K hour time and the unit was still working as designed. Can't recall which application right now, but wastewater treatment plant is nagging my brain.

    Another app was using a CPST on "sour gas" that was out of spec and had no pre-treatment going on. That one sounded risky but the customer was happy with it.

    HardToLove
    Mar 21, 2015. 07:09 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Capstone Turbine Finds New Ways To Disappoint Investors [View article]
    Thanks for getting me back on board CN!

    It just "shows to go ya'" that a fuzzy memory and laziness are no substitute for a little "sweat". :-(

    HardToLove
    Mar 21, 2015. 07:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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