Seeking Alpha

H. T. Love

 
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  • A speculative play on UQM [View instapost]
    Well, $0.70ish looks to have been decent support ... so far. We hit $0.71 yesterday and came back up and today we are trading $0.75-$0.81 on reasonable volume too.

    We have today broken above a medium-term descending resistance, are currently riding atop a medium-term descending support and are now challenging a long-term descending resistance at $0.81ish.

    A break above that line, followed by confirmation would supposedly allow a decent rise to begin. Rising volume, as we have today, on rising price when we confirm a break above would be a positive trade entry point I guess.

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    Jan 9, 2015. 11:41 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #277, January 7, 2015 [View instapost]
    Hey Stranger! Good to see you back!

    HardToLove
    Jan 9, 2015. 11:06 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A speculative play on UQM [View instapost]
    That's good news D Lane! Early adopter now provides data tat others can examine and determine if the units will meet their needs.

    Thanks!

    HardToLove
    Jan 9, 2015. 10:11 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 385: Dec. 29, 2014 [View instapost]
    01/08/2015: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 56, MinTrSz: 20, MaxTrSz: 3650, Vol: 26420, AvTrSz: 472
    Min. Pr: 0.9700, Max Pr: 1.0400, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.9974
    # Buys, Shares: 11 11600, VW Avg Buy Pr: 1.0110
    # Sells, Shares: 43 13720, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.9860
    # Unkn, Shares: 2 1100, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.9956
    Buy:Sell 1:1.18 (43.91% "buys"), DlyShts 2160 (08.18%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 15.74%

    After two days of extremely low volume we finally got some. Not really good because it's still below all my averages. But at least it's worth the effort to generate the usual metrics.

    The day's high occurred on the first two trades, buys at $1.04, of 2.2K and 700 shares. Price moved right down to $0.986 and then struggled around the $0.99 to $1 level until 14:14, when the battle was lost and we moved below $0.99 for good (see trading breakdown by time).

    Today's 43.9% buy percentage is lower than yesterday's, but more meaningful because we got a little more volume. It's not big enough to cause a rise (although we did post a VWAP gain of 0.004%), which is hopeful. It also brought back some daily short sales after two days of zeros.

    The only bad things today are a VWAP again below $1, that a substantial portion of the buy percentage was due to those two trades at $1.04 (removing them would drop it to ~37% and VWAP would go to $0.9921), and I believe the PIPErs were in as I saw trades of about 15% of the day's volume, prior to those trades, go off 14:14 – 14:17. They were sells. Prior to that we had a VWAP over $1. As I noted in a comment on the concentrator, there may have been more because the sub-$1 VWAP yesterday would allow them to do more than 15%.

    Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved -2.02%, 3.99%, 0.004%, 131.75% and infinity (yesterday was zero) respectively. Price spread today was 7.22% vs. 1.02%, 5.21%, 5.21%,. 12.63%, 9.65%, 14.00%, 6.93%, 12.50% and 8.25% on prior days.

    The larger trades (>= 500) occurred on 17 of the 56 trades, 30.36%. These 19,330 shares were 73.16% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $1.0005. 6 of the ...

    The other 39 trades, 69.64%, traded 7,090 shares, 26.84% of the days volume. The VWAP was $0.9887. 5 trades ...

    The usual is in the blog here.
    http://seekingalpha.co...

    HardToLove
    Jan 9, 2015. 09:21 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 385: Dec. 29, 2014 [View instapost]
    Amouna: Another possibility is that the PE group is considering taking a stake. A board seat is often one of the correlated actions.

    Having said that, they would have to be seeing a lot more potential than we are seeing to be thinking along these lines.

    So for the moment, your scenario *seems* more likely than mine.

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    Jan 8, 2015. 05:52 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 385: Dec. 29, 2014 [View instapost]
    No "YIKES"! As mentioned, a very small position to limit the risk. They were trading blocks only and $0 wouldn't kill me on them.

    But price is still above my cost basis, including fees, so I'm not even crying in my beer (yet).

    HardToLove
    Jan 8, 2015. 03:54 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 385: Dec. 29, 2014 [View instapost]
    UBSS had 16K offered at $1 around 13:13. At 12:44 they offered 20K @ $1.15, which I, for some silly reason, found much more attractive! >;-),

    HardToLove
    Jan 8, 2015. 03:46 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 385: Dec. 29, 2014 [View instapost]
    Well, I think I saw a ~15% PIPEr sell 14:14-14:17 today. Prior to that our VWAP was still 1/10th of a cent above $1, IIRC.

    Subsequently we "tanked" as offers have now dropped to $0.985 after holding >=$1 all day.

    I also suspect there's more PIPEr activity because of the subsequent action and yesterday's sub-$1 VWAP would give them leeway.

    HardToLove
    Jan 8, 2015. 03:28 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A speculative play on UQM [View instapost]
    DRich: LoL about the "now is the best ...".

    HardToLove
    Jan 8, 2015. 03:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 385: Dec. 29, 2014 [View instapost]
    Well, I had hopes but the last batch of trades took VWAP below $1 to $0.9987. A couple larger buys at $1 would fix it, but I don't guess there's much impetus for that.

    <*sigh*>

    HardToLove
    Jan 8, 2015. 03:13 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A speculative play on UQM [View instapost]
    D lane: I'm thinking it'll be interesting to see if we get to $0.70 and wondering if it will be the (weak?) support I postulated.

    Even if it's weak I'm contemplating buys there. But now that the market has educated me a bit more =8-O ... I'm thinking that maybe waiting for a confirmed start, at least, of an up trend might be better. I could live with missing a few pennies gain.

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    Jan 8, 2015. 03:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A speculative play on UQM [View instapost]
    DRich: I'm a bit surprised on one hand and not so on the other.

    Surprised because there was nothing in the charts that said it should just keep stair-stepping lower and lower.

    Un-surprised because with oil where it's at I would guess everything "greenish" in nature would be falling out of favor.

    I don't know what to make of it.

    I'm going to hold steady, figuring that there's only so much loss left in the downside. ... Heh. Been there before and been wrong!

    HardToLove
    Jan 8, 2015. 01:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 385: Dec. 29, 2014 [View instapost]
    01/07/2015: EOD stuff partially copied from blog (up now).
    # Trds: 15, MinTrSz: 10, MaxTrSz: 4400, Vol: 11400, AvTrSz: 760
    Min. Pr: 0.9900, Max Pr: 1.0001, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.9973
    # Buys, Shares: 6 5500, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.9999
    # Sells, Shares: 8 5700, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.9949
    # Unkn, Shares: 1 200, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.9952
    Buy:Sell 1:1.04 (48.25% "buys"), DlyShts 0 (00.00%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 0.00%

    The second day of extremely low volume and only 15 trades again means it's not worth my time, for what we might get from it, to break down trades by time, price or size today. So those are again omitted. Ditto for analysis and opinions.

    Note that if we discount yesterday's opening odd-lot trade of 20 shares at $0.9600 and use the $0.9900 I suggested as a more appropriate low, the following low movement would be 0%.

    I will say that the ~48% buy percentage is meaningless as I believe it's just an effect of the low volume combined with market-makers trying to make a buck. It's just a result of “churn”, which is all we're seeing ATM.

    Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 3.13%, -0.98%, 00.11%, 17.53% and 0% respectively. Price spread today was 1.02% vs. 5.21%, 5.21%,. 12.63%, 9.65%, 14.00%, 6.93%, 12.50%, 8.25% and 10.43% on prior days.

    Most of the usual in the blog here.
    http://seekingalpha.co...

    HardToLove
    Jan 8, 2015. 09:16 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #276, November 27, 2014 [View instapost]
    Alex T: Maybe this can be useful in your planning?

    http://tinyurl.com/ygq...

    The contract buyers, of course, are betting that price will be at or above the contract prices for the respective months while the sellers of the contracts are betting it will be lower than the contract prices.

    Noting the severe contango in pricing, I suspect that the sellers are the ones buying tanker storage as well as they purchase either at spot or front-month prices and sell the long-dated contracts.

    With cost of money being so low they may also be leveraged up. In the past it was suspected the big banks were the sellers. With new restrictions on the banks and many exiting commodity trading I don't have any idea who the suspects would be. Big money regardless.

    Since open interest is not shown though, a COT (Commitment of Traders) report would really be needed to gauge sentiment, Other than that, only the trading volume in the various contracts can give any indication and that's a weak short-term indicator at best.

    Here's one COT - I don't know if it's the best one.
    http://1.usa.gov/1BL2pQ5

    Starting with this Google result http://tinyurl.com/nqv... I note there's a lot of other resources that even offer charts and such, e.g. http://tinyurl.com/q2e...

    HTH,
    HardToLove
    Jan 8, 2015. 07:24 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #276, November 27, 2014 [View instapost]
    TB: You're present here always. Even if you have to take care of issues ... maybe "especially". Good luck with them - we're all pulling for you to triumph.

    HardToLove
    Jan 7, 2015. 07:15 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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