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H. T. Love  

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  • A Speculative Play On UQM Beginning 2/7/2015 [View instapost]
    I didn't follow up on "Fulcrum" but I did notice that Wrightspeed didn't get an award on this particular go-round.

    Since Wrightspeed already uses CPST in their drive train I'm not sure what the difference is between what they produce now and the range extender.

    Maybe they are looking a a bigger battery version that will be predominantly a plug-in BEV? I could see "range extender" version of that, but I would think a customer would be better off using the current offerings where appropriate and a plug-in BEV only where they don't really need a "range extender".

    Obviously I'm missing something.

    HardToLove
    Mar 21, 2015. 06:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Capstone Turbine Finds New Ways To Disappoint Investors [View article]
    Cparmalee: (C)CHP installations generally achieve about 82% total efficiency IIRC. It's one of the reasons inroads into commercial office space is starting to ramp.

    HardToLove
    Mar 21, 2015. 09:29 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Capstone Turbine Finds New Ways To Disappoint Investors [View article]
    "Refurbishing the turbine is a very expensive"

    Maybe not so?

    The 40K hour "overhaul" consist primarily of inspection and R&R of injectors if needed, turbine if needed and maybe air bearing.

    With that in mind, labor is minimal due to only one moving part, no cams or lifters or push rods or connecting rods or head gaskets or ... no oils , etc.

    Compared to a traditional IC engine TCO is *very* favorable. If the factory protection plan is purchased it's all covered too.

    Another thing to keep in mind is that the 40K hors is just a "benchmark". Many of the units have run much longer with no intervention.

    ISTR that some units do or did have 80K hours between "overhauls", but it's been so long ago and things may have changed for financial reasons.

    HardToLove
    Mar 21, 2015. 09:23 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Speculative Play On UQM Beginning 2/7/2015 [View instapost]
    D Lane: Protera gets a CA grant.

    http://bit.ly/1xKsht1

    Since they use $UQM motors ...

    HardToLove
    Mar 21, 2015. 08:11 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Speculative Play On UQM Beginning 2/7/2015 [View instapost]
    As we hover around prior resistance points the uncertainty often exhibits in wider b/a spreads and low volume. Recall this was also seen as it re-traced from these levels last go-round when the market couldn't decide to move on down to $1.12 again or not.

    Now it's "going up or down?" that is likely responsible for it.

    Intra-day it looks like some folks decided to reduce risk and have moved it down, but still only 76K traded at 15:12.

    I want to see it test $1.12 (or wherever the trend line is when it moves down) and hold as a first step in strongly supporting a rising channel developing.

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    Mar 20, 2015. 03:14 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Speculative Play On UQM Beginning 2/7/2015 [View instapost]
    "Than you Janet Yellen?"

    Started before the release of minutes and conference.

    I think it's something else.

    "... you think we get a pop on earnings"

    I don't know. Been thinking about it though. The purchase of the Roush hydrogen stuff is apparently going to be immediately accretive (margin on motors they used to sell is maintained and they get the additional margin Roush must have had if they can be at least as efficient in building start to finish) less the capital outlay and operating costs.

    But I would think this quarter is too soon to see results?

    Other than that, don't see any other substantial near-term revenue that should appear.

    But the ongoing news, and iteration of what we already know in China, Korea, energy management initiative, ... could be enough to bring market attention. Just don't know.

    On the TA side, this unexpected bounce, with volume rising on consecutive days, off my rising trend support mentioned above was a big positive if it holds above again today, especially on rising volume. It says the rising support is "strong" and we might have entered a rising trading channel. Need to see if that develops.

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    Mar 19, 2015. 08:03 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #278, February 5, 2015 [View instapost]
    A Brit that has a great record in the oil markets appeared on CNBC this A.M. and pointed out that storage never gets 100%. He said actual capacity should be estimated at 80% of reported available storage.

    So "full" and the resulting price drop should occur sooner than expected.

    HardToLove
    Mar 19, 2015. 07:45 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #278, February 5, 2015 [View instapost]
    $AXIH: For those following, "AXION Receives $1 Million in Orders for ECOTRAX® Rail Ties for Transit Station and Yard Rehabilitation Project"

    http://tinyurl.com/mxx...

    "... will be installed in the spring".

    So revenues will be taking good jumps when you consider the other recent orders.

    By good fortune, because price looked favorable, I added 7K shares in three trading blocks over three accounts day before yesterday.

    Better to be lucky than good!

    HardToLove
    Mar 19, 2015. 07:37 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Speculative Play On UQM Beginning 2/7/2015 [View instapost]
    Heads up! Finally challenged a rising support trend line ~$1.12 (took long enough to get there IMO) and closed below, on rising volume, at $1.10.

    If it close below $1.12/$1.13 tomorrow, we have confirmation of a break down.

    My next watch point comes around the $1.06 area and I don't expect it to be strong as it's just some price points seen in sideways moves.

    The oscillators I watch are weakening but none in oversold yet.

    HardToLove
    Mar 17, 2015. 06:02 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #278, February 5, 2015 [View instapost]
    "bail out mechanism"

    Well it would at least be for something that is broadly useful and has value, unlike the last bail-out we did for the squidery.

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    Mar 17, 2015. 05:50 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 392: Mar. 14, 2015 [View instapost]
    I try to stay out of this sort of unsubstantiated and erroneous conversation Killa, but this demands some consideration.

    Point 1: Link please? Otherwise just your opinion and should be considered worth no more than any opinion.
    Point 2: Partially correct? Never achieved "mass production" by any stretch of the sense of that phrase. As to lifting NDAs, who knows? We have no evidence either way other than anecdotal. Doesn't mean it's wrong, just that it is not as robust as one would like.
    Point 3: I would disagree 100% here. Many documents showing discharge and charge behavior and comparisons to traditional LAB and AGMs are available. May not have *all* the technical data a good engineer might like, but the data that's available is enough to get such engineers to draw preliminary conclusions and (apparently?) continue testing? BMW for quite some time (current status unknown), $NSC still testing and apparently developing. Some solar and grid storage stuff *may* actually come to fruition - remains to be seen.

    This Point 3 suggests you have a selective memory issue? Going back through some of the older concentrators will reveal links to available documents in both the headers and comments. The weakness is that the linked documents are not data spec sheets, so we have to presume that *if* there are any they are in the hands of the engineers and (likely?) covered by NDAs.

    Last, "This all collectively points to a some flaw or shortcoming in the product".

    Change "the product" to "my (your) thinking", unless you intended a bias.

    HardToLove
    Mar 15, 2015. 10:24 AM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 391: Mar. 01, 2015 [View instapost]
    To Thotdoc and Rugged, wishing the best for you going forward!

    I hope that future investments for both of you more than make up for what's happened to you with AXPW!

    Regardless, the things that truly matter won't be impacted by this experience, so keep the focus on those things and time will heal these wounds.

    HardToLove
    Mar 13, 2015. 04:37 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 391: Mar. 01, 2015 [View instapost]
    "Just doesn't seem rational"

    Uh, haven't you noticed? ;-))

    HardToLove
    Mar 13, 2015. 07:33 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 391: Mar. 01, 2015 [View instapost]
    EM: Good find! Thanks.

    "... stocks do indeed decline faster than they rise. The options market is priced for this outcome. And if it were not true, you could arbitrage the put/call skew".

    I'm not arbitraging, but am currently doing well in two accounts with a synthetic short (short calls and long puts at the same strike and expiration) over AMD. Just yesterday the unrealized profit on those became greater than the unrealized loss on the underlying - sooner than I anticipated.

    Now I get to do the "nervous" bit of "Is now the time to close those positions and flip to a synthetic long or to go neutral?".

    This is a reasonable way to achieve near what the hedgies do - get market neutral while remaining in a position to reap profits.

    Where it falls short is that unlike the "real short", options have time decay and so you gotta be in the ballpark on direction, magnitude and time to really remain neutral or even make a profit. There are strategies that ameliorate these issues though.

    HardToLove
    Mar 13, 2015. 06:46 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 391: Mar. 01, 2015 [View instapost]
    PY: "Painting ..."
    Doesn't strike me as that.
    16:02:43 50K @ $0.15
    16:02:59 and 16:03:04 each 20K @ $0.15
    16:21:43 5K @ $0.15
    16:43:25 4K @ $0.15
    17:14:46 1K @ $0.19.

    All trades but the 4K occurred on Direct Edge X. The 4k was NASDAQ.

    I'm *guessing* just typical AH type stuff, which normally has high volatility.

    B/a began on the first three trades with 99K @ $0.15 & 54.4K @ $0.234. Bid qty dropped rationally as trades occurred at the bid.

    The 16:21 5K trade occurred after a "lock" at 16:11:03 when b/a were both $0.15 x 9K.

    The last two trades had small-sized b/a $0.15/$0.23 leading into them.

    HardToLove
    Mar 13, 2015. 06:33 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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