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H. T. Love  

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  • QuickChat #280, April 16, 2015 [View instapost]
    Related to that, whodda thunk it? Government data in error?! No way!

    Apr 22, 2015. 09:40 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #280, April 16, 2015 [View instapost]
    For those, like me, w/o a subscription to the WSJ, Google, with the quotes, "Why Did These Oil Workers Die?" to get by the paywall.

    Apr 22, 2015. 06:31 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #280, April 16, 2015 [View instapost]
    I found "The Global Liquidity Squeeze Has Begun" interesting.

    And the accompanying link in the article, flagged "... the biggest spike in credit application rejections ever recorded in the United States ..." was worth a look too.

    P.S. Interesting comments too.
    Apr 21, 2015. 06:55 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #280, April 16, 2015 [View instapost]
    MJ: Moreover, he "layered" them in with multiple orders on the sell side at multiple price points to make it look like selling pressure was stacked up.

    I've seen this off and on in some of the junk I follow ... but not for a long time now.

    ISTM that these "stub" orders (IIRC that's what they are called - orders entered and never intended to execute) occurrences have been reduced over the years.

    Heh. Or maybe I don't watch the right equities.

    Apr 21, 2015. 02:18 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stability Of The European Union (23) January 1, 2015. [View instapost]
    More riots in the offing methinks.

    Apr 20, 2015. 04:41 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Does Capstone Executive Shakeup Signal Another Bad Quarter? [View article]
    CN: Out of time to track that closely right now - using some recently freed up time (which I had none of for many months) to get some code written that will benefit down the road.

    Apr 20, 2015. 12:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Does Capstone Executive Shakeup Signal Another Bad Quarter? [View article]

    "So let me say this simply, and then give you some explanation, a decision was made by this board some years ago that the mice need to smell the cheese."

    "... On the basis of that and on the basis of prospect of that when we made that decision, we think it's quite justified to put the cheese out there and let the mice smell it".

    "Capstone Turbine's CEO Hosts Annual Shareholder Meeting (Transcript)"

    Just use your browser search feature on "cheese".

    Apr 20, 2015. 11:08 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Does Capstone Executive Shakeup Signal Another Bad Quarter? [View article]
    "You know full well that the terms of a CEO'S pay are criteria bound and set in advance"

    Weelllllll ... It was just a few years back, under a new incentive plan IIRC, that the co. missed badly and the board gave DJ & Co. bonuses anyway. When questioned about it the response from the board was (paraphrased as my memory is not that strong) "giving the mice some cheese (actual words) gives them incentive".

    So the "set in advance" doesn't seem to always be the case.

    Apr 20, 2015. 09:57 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Does Capstone Executive Shakeup Signal Another Bad Quarter? [View article]
    Caroline: "where are we headed in the year and sooner"

    Lol! I have no crystal ball. Being a big believer in the technology and it's applications, I think it does have a good future, especially when the C-250 starts to get commercialized (a big margin improvement should be attached to that) and/or Wrightspeed gets its first big order(s).

    I can only offer that I hold a small (for now) core and trade around it to keep in the game (and compensate for "broken promises"?).

    I'm currently awaiting a good add point based on when I start to *think* a move up has begun, based on TA only (as CN said, "management ... many ways to disappoint") and I can only say that so far the trend is unchanged.

    On a one-year chart I have a trend line that began at the low of $1.28 on 5/9/14 that was formerly support. PPS initially broke below it 10/9/14, recovered back above 10/29/14, putzed around the line for 11 days and made the final break below it 11/14/14. Since then that line has acted as a very strong and reliable resistance with 15 attempts to break above and 15 fails to do so since 11/17/14.

    The price is in in full consolidation right now. Normally this suggests a break one way or the other is coming, but so far it has not come.

    If it breaks down, a potential *weak* support at $0.59 is possible, but even if that holds it doesn't necessarily suggest a move up.

    I am watching for a break above that trend line on good volume with a confirmation the next days on rising volume to add. How far up it might go, and how long to get there, based on TA, is tough because there are now so many weak(?) potential resistance points that might take effect. There's also a couple stronger ones when I switch to a two-year chart.

    Sans a "catalytic event" the *best* I can see is a halting "grind up" with many weak moves up, pauses, retreats, weak move up, pause, ... trying to get back over a dollar, where I suspect stronger resistance will initially appear around $1ish and then $1.10ish.

    If Wrightspeed pulls off a big order that flows through to CPST, a short-term rocket seems likely.

    Given that scenario is not currently my base case, I suspect Jamison will go for a reverse split in order to remain listed on NASDAQ. This might be his only option since the usual orders PR has not effected the formerly normal response of good upward price movement (market fully "jaded" now?). This even with some much larger than normal orders and new markets (e.g. Mexico). "Financial engineering", when the fundamentals are "weak" (in this case "fundamentals" being managements repeated failure to deliver on their forecasts), are futile, IMO, as I think price begins an immediate descent after the initial "pop", if there is any. This will be exacerbated by the real shorters (and hedgies), seeing a much larger potential downside and knowing that the "fundamentals" have not yet changed, will certainly jump all over it.

    If that occurs, I think it'll take some institutional types or mutuals to overcome the downward pressure shorting will bring. They are likely the only ones with enough "firepower" as the retail investor is likely so battered they'll be reluctant to jump in too soon.

    MHO, HTH and in ignorance,
    Apr 17, 2015. 07:23 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Does Capstone Executive Shakeup Signal Another Bad Quarter? [View article]
    Caroline: "watching the daily short volume"

    Way OT follows.

    Be careful on that. "Daily short volume" has a couple components - one benign and the other not.

    By SEC rule any share sold which is not in the control of the seller must be flagged as a short sale. Market-makers, being exempt from REG SHO naked short prohibitions, provide their service and make their money by doing the inverse of us retail longs: they "sell high and *then* buy low" as part of their "liquidity provisioning" process. Also, when a sell order is received from a broker, where control of the share resides, the MM makes the sale and must flag it as a short sale because the shares aren't in the MM's control. Later (T+3 usually?) if the MM has not already done a covering buy the position will be netted out by the DTCC's (or the appropriate subsidiary's) clearing process as the shares backing the original sell order leave control of the broker and flows into control of the MM that handled the order.

    These are not *real* shorts as us investors would think of them. The second component of these shorts are real shorts, as we think of them. The *vast* majority of shorts seen daily are the "faux" shorts generated by the MMs.

    The *real* short picture is better represented by the semi-monthly short report, such as is available here:

    In summary, short interest has been falling substantially, in a "bumpy" trend, for a long time, with normal up and down perturbations (possibly affected by MM shorts which haven't yet cleared due to the normal T+3 settlement period?).

    A recent peak, 06/13/2014 54,924,442 shares, has crept down to 03/31/2015 47,328,017 shares.

    This is not much, but why should the shorters cover when there is absolutely zero upward pressure. Plus some of these shorters are hedge funds, like Gilder, Gagnon and Howe, that go both long and short and don't lose money either direction - they tend to close short or long positions at points of what they think are best profit.

    Further, with the dilutive share issuances over the years this short interest is smaller, percentage-wise, than levels I observed in my records going back to 10/15/2010.

    It's been a while since I ran my software to make a study, but ISTR a normal daily short level of 30%-40% for CPST. This is mostly normal due to market-maker activity.

    I ran a similar study over 8K OTC symbols over an arbitrary 3-month period once and got 40%.

    Anyway, I hope this was useful as there's a lot of real shorters and other fears we need to worry about with getting spooked by "daily shorts". For *me* daily shorts matter only in terms of deviation from the norm for other than a short period. And that's of interest only for the clues (and that's all they can ever be - never a hard fact) as to what's going on that is hidden from us: "dark pools", intra-broker and inter-broker trades, MMs satisfying a "good customer" with a big buy or sell order, etc.

    P.S. You also can't trust FINRA's EOD REG SHO reports - I discovered they were dropping data blocks on several OTC stocks and they were not aware. I worked with them over several months (no, not paid - just letting them know what I saw) as they tried to fix it. The same might be happening in the files from other than OTC, although I've not seen evidence of it yet (it's much harder to spot, for reasons I'll skip here, outside the OTC and I've not been looking for it either).

    If you trust be aware that they have a one-day offset for data from certain exchanges that will skew the results. This was empirically proven when I first looked at their data and compared it to data taken directly from the exchanges and FINRA, which I pick up daily. I haven't gone back to check them in several years, but a recent post from a person I know uses them does suggest that the offset still exists.
    Apr 16, 2015. 06:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #280, April 16, 2015 [View instapost]
    You're right Maya, he didn't say that. His focus was how badly Germany needs that weak Euro, and Greece (along with the other "peripheral" EZ members) provides it.

    He also touched on commonly raised consequences, like "who's next if Greece goes and it's OK", etc.

    Apr 16, 2015. 05:25 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Does Capstone Executive Shakeup Signal Another Bad Quarter? [View article]
    "and if you compensate on a confirmed order"

    And complications arise if the order is later cancelled or deferred? Or the bill is not paid or ...

    There is *some* risk associated with trying to wrap an immediate-gratification pay plan around a long-lead delivery and AR receipt scenario I think.

    Can't penalize the sales rep if the order is later canceled - it should have been vetted by others at the time of acceptance, so the rep did his/her job.

    Sticky wicket, eh wot?

    Apr 16, 2015. 05:20 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #280, April 16, 2015 [View instapost]
    Gartman on CNBC expecting Grexit. Heard him mention could be as early as next weekend, but also next two or three weeks over a weekend.

    Germany needs Greece to stay. Gartman believes it better if Greece remains though.

    If Greece leaves he says Euro appreciates dramatically, which is not good for them.

    Apr 16, 2015. 05:07 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Capstone Turbine Finds New Ways To Disappoint Investors [View article]
    " because those orders are now expected to ship over 18 months rather than 12 months"

    Hah! I didn't think of that. Good catch.

    It looks like the prior $45MM remaining is incorporated into this one.

    I'd have to go double check. Anyway, yes it was generic: "... we intend to use the net proceeds from the sale of the securities offered by this prospectus for general corporate purposes, which may include, but are not limited to, working capital, capital expenditures, acquisitions and repurchases or redemptions of securities ..." and more verbiage that specific offerings will detail specific intended use.

    Apr 16, 2015. 03:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Capstone Turbine Finds New Ways To Disappoint Investors [View article]
    IIUC, they still have $45MM left on the prior shelf, so I don't know if/when a notification of effectiveness would be needed/issued on this new one.

    Regardless, with their history we can't easily assume the optimistic take that it's needed to service a huge surge in new orders. With the current climate, might be needed to stay afloat while DSO gets extended - which I assume might be logical result of the current economic/$ strength things we see. Too bad too because they had made some good progress on reducing the time between shipment and receipts over the last couple of years.

    Apr 16, 2015. 02:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment