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H. T. Love  

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  • Capstone Turbine Finds New Ways To Disappoint Investors [View article]
    "there is no FCF today and calculating any future cash flow is problematic"

    After I posted I thought of that. But I knew you'd catch it and are much more knowledgeable than I about that stuff anyway, so I let it go.

    The Iran situation is certainly a concern. But keep in mind that MTs are used, *currently*, much more in pressurization of pipelines and provision of power for already existing sites than in the drilling, fracking, ... involved in making new wells. Those operations generally involve fracking rigs on trucks powered by diesel IC engines, as do the units that pump high-pressure fluids and propants into the bores.

    Also, SD has issued the first fines, and they look hefty to me, for sites flaring gas and exceeding limits around the well sites. The fines were certainly large enough to pay for a few Cappies and actually save money as well as avoid the fines. So I would expect to see more orders out of the Bakken play over the next couple of months as the drillers realize that SD was serious about those laws they enacted.

    The hitch in the giddy-up there is there's no real pipeline infrastructure yet to pressurize and GE(?) has this new "porta-pipe" (my term not theirs) that lets them get gas (and oil? Unsure) to pipeline or rail heads (unsure which) for shipment. I don't know if it can capture flare gas too.

    ISTR some guy on CNBC talking about putting some pipes in SD, but I don't recall any details at all. Regardless, I presume the usual NIMBY stuff would pop up and slow everything.

    HardToLove
    Apr 5, 2015. 09:14 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • AXPW: Intra-Day Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting Beginning 04/01/2015 [View instapost]
    Updated fails to deliver data through latest available, 2/27/2015. Looks suspiciously like there may be a correlation between fails starting before "cashless conversion" officially kicked off and fails increases. The behavior solidified from there forward so far.

    More data for the first half of March should be available shortly. I expect fails to continue high as I think a lot is related to what JP has pointed out in the past - back-office processes taking some time to get new shares into electronic form that allow settlement.

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    HardToLove
    Apr 5, 2015. 08:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AXPW Split-Adjusted Fails-To-Deliver Charts 2014 Onward [View instapost]
    Well, got caught up on daily stuff, so updated the fails to deliver through the latest data, 2/27/2015.

    Gee, you think the spike in fails starting early in the year and getting really dense 2/17 (that's estimated trade date based on normal T+3 settlement - the fail date would be 2/20) is related to the sharks insuring "cashless conversion" would occur?

    A note has been added ahead of the 2015 H1 (latest) chart regarding that.

    HardToLove
    Apr 5, 2015. 08:54 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quickchat #279, March 19, 2015 [View instapost]
    Until wages improve, his only option is a portable ice chest. Limits his consumption too - more negative GDP action caused by that! :-))

    HardToLove
    Apr 4, 2015. 02:05 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Capstone Turbine Finds New Ways To Disappoint Investors [View article]
    "Sucks for investors, doesn't it?".

    I don't know - I've been debating that.

    In a way I think this is somewhat like one of Cramer's deals where you look for a beaten-down vehicle that is going to recover, albeit that recover part is uncertain right now.

    Since there's no profit we'd have to value it based on PEG ratio or FCF (eh, not yet I guess) or some other (NPV?) value basis.

    Anyway, I'm just watching my chart where a long term descending resistance has held through many challenges. I exhibited unusual discipline, for me, and have not been enticed by "low price" yet to add. When it breaks above that line with volume and building momentum I'll risk some trading block additions.

    HardToLove
    Apr 3, 2015. 05:40 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AXPW: Intra-Day Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting Beginning 03/02/2015 [View instapost]
    New April blog is up. Shorter for now. Converted price chart to logarithmic so we could more clearly experience the perceived pain. It looks really weird though!

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Apr 3, 2015. 05:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Capstone Turbine Finds New Ways To Disappoint Investors [View article]
    D Lane: I wish it would install sooner - might make some Q CC this year show some positive operating profits or even EBITDA break even when other orders shipped and billed in the same periods are added in.

    HardToLove
    Apr 2, 2015. 02:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Speculative Play On UQM Beginning 2/7/2015 [View instapost]
    Audi unveiled their PHEV, the A3 E-tron, today. I wonder if they use UQM? Since they had tested them in various other models, it would make sense? But they could use other brands and styles in this model regardless of testing previously done.

    HardToLove
    Apr 2, 2015. 01:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Speculative Play On UQM Beginning 2/7/2015 [View instapost]
    That's a pretty useful and neat page D Lane!

    All the bus administrations need to do similar.

    HardToLove
    Mar 31, 2015. 11:11 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Speculative Play On UQM Beginning 2/7/2015 [View instapost]
    "but I wander what it does to folks trying to do TA on stocks with such low volume"

    It makes it more difficult because there's little "momentum". E.g., AMD runs 12MM-18MM shares daily very often and that produces trends that don't "jump" as frequently as in low-vol small-cap stocks. Intra-day spread often only 5/6 cents on a $2.50ish stock.

    AMD, sans up/downgrades, is much easier to trade on the TA IMO. And you can also use options on them. UQM has them, but they're not current and underlying price points are too far away last time I looked (some months back). I would expect high implied volatility on them - great for going short the the options, lousy if you want to get long the options. This because the high IV causes high premiums.

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    Mar 30, 2015. 05:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Speculative Play On UQM Beginning 2/7/2015 [View instapost]
    AHEM! I should have expected a "droop" rather than a "sag"! :-(( Could''a got them a few % points cheaper!

    Well, closed below our rising support and I'm *guessing* might do so tomorrow. But being it's "window dressing" season, I'll give it a pass until next week and then reassess the "sitiation".

    Volume bumping up today would normally be a concern on a move lower, but while "in season" not a concern right now for me.

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    Mar 30, 2015. 04:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Speculative Play On UQM Beginning 2/7/2015 [View instapost]
    Added some trading blocks at $1.11/$1.12 today, figuring EOM sag might offer an opportunity and then rebound.

    xxx<<--- fingers crossed.

    HardToLove
    Mar 30, 2015. 01:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 393: Mar. 26, 2015 [View instapost]
    I am no longer following the APC as it has degenerated into character assassination of formerly-valued contributors who happened to get it wrong, as if none of us has ever committed such a grievous sin.

    Along with patting ones self on the back as having been right so long ago, I find little of utility and a lot distasteful.

    GL to all.

    I hope APH never starts another issue of this (now) cesspool.

    HardToLove
    Mar 27, 2015. 09:09 AM | 19 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Speculative Play On UQM Beginning 2/7/2015 [View instapost]
    We had good low-volume behavior suggesting our up trend would hold the last two days.

    This mornings economic data which had GDP 2.2 in last revesion to Q4 when 2.4 was expected has the futures for Nasdaq 100 and Composite down ~27%/28%, S&P 500 down 23%-28% and many others down as well.

    If we don't see some volume with an upward bias I feel we need to be alert to a spill-over into UQM - may depend on the "burst basket" trades.

    Yesterday I "supported" the price range while looking out for a possible low-ball close with some buy orders at $1.11 and $1.12 that represented a substantial part of what ended up being our daily volume of 30.3K. Knowing that MMs ASA, ASE, EDGE, ... apparently have "bots" that immediately better bids and offers, my orders resulted in moving the bid to a stable $1.13 (after a somewhat unusual delay from them - low-volume effect?) initially and then it worked up from there.

    I plan to try and get any low-ball shares again with similar bids (price to be determined yet) today as I believe the usual market reactions to short-term "disappointing" news will follow it's usual "short-term memory loss" behavior and next week the market will resume chasing its own tail again.

    Of course, this is all speculation by me and should be heavily salted.

    HardToLove
    P.S. As I typed this S&P 500 has already recovered to pre-report levels (-0.17%). Talk about "short-term"!
    Mar 27, 2015. 08:57 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quickchat #279, March 19, 2015 [View instapost]
    Thx D-Inv! Added it to my watch list and starting DD.

    HardToLove
    Mar 26, 2015. 03:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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