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H. T. Love  

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  • Axion Power Concentrator 12: Beginning Sept. 22, 2011 [View instapost]
    I've suggested: *true* threading with threads collapsed under the "header" and with a "+/-" expansion/collapse mechanism - that takes care of the bandwidth *and* eliminates ambiguity in replies.

    Any thread with a new comment would be flagged as is currently done, leaving the user the choice of expanding and reading the thread/comment or not.

    I've also requested, as we touched on earlier, a "Go to next new comment" feature. The weakness with this is that the flagging within an instablog is still not working correctly even though I reported it in January.

    On both of these items, no progress or feedback to-date.

    E-mail support@seeking for these and other issues. If enough of us do it, maybe we'll get some movement before next January.

    Sep 24, 2011. 04:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 12: Beginning Sept. 22, 2011 [View instapost]
    Orange flag saying "xx New comments on ..." that s/b at lower right corner?

    If so, widen your browser window - it's off the right edge because they made the bottom "console" fixed width and put in a lot of empty space.

    I have the same problem because I like to use a lower resolution screen setting which "expands" the text - easier on my eyes.

    Sep 24, 2011. 03:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What To Look For In The Market Next Week: U.S. Earnings, Euro Bailouts And Banks [View article]
    >uhuh: I believe the rising "flag" (bearish and bounded by some of the highs of 8/15-8/31, giving us multiple touches, and some of the lows of 8/9-9/21- again multiple touches) has been broken already with the consecutive closes below support of 9/22-9/23 as well as the "first warning" intra-day penetration 9/12.

    A descending trading channel is now evident using some highs of 8/31-9/20 and some lows of 9/6-9/23 with multiple contacts on each line.

    Adding consideration of SPY volume (as a proxy), I feel more certain of this descending channel. The highest volume spikes have occurred on down days while up days demonstrated little strength (only 6 up days in the last 25 managed to reach average for that period - none penetrated). 25-day average has deteriorated from the effects of the 7/29-8/11 volume spikes, apparently trying to return to the levels prior to that spike. These factors suggest, to me, weakening price strength.

    However, sans any EZ (or other) big negative catalyst early next week, I also expect a rise, but not to your suggested level. Just too many things suggesting difficulty reaching *that* level right now, regardless of "window dressing".

    First, why a bump?
    - A couple oscillators trying to go oversold now,
    - "Window dressing" in play for a few more days,
    - Mon.-Wed. reports various housing indicators that may surprise since year-ago reports were so abominably weak IIRC,

    But that's the end of the *potentially* good news. Thu.-Fri. gives us the jobless claims, leading indicators (ECRI has been in a consistent decline for many weeks now so I expect these indicators to weaken as well - but they may meet "expectations"), and FHFA home prices.

    And that takes us into "Fearful Friday" as everybody with any sense tries to "Go Home Flat" if there's *any* uncertainty "out there".

    I see a push up to the $1170/$1175 area, *maybe* $1190-$1200, but that's about it. Several reasons:
    - Reversion to the mean would be ~$1167/~$1172, depending on extremes selected,
    - several demonstrated resistance points in the low $117x area from11/16/10-11/30/10,
    - mid-point of my experimental Bollingers (10 period and they're diverging ATM with the lower falling faster than the upper is rising) is ~$1178,
    - 10 & 20 SMAs $1178 & $1184 respectively and falling along with the 50 @ $1213, which is below the 200 - bearish,
    - descending channel range Friday shows high & low of ~$1217 & ~$1121, giving a mid-point of $1169 and descending @ a rate of ~$1.56/day,
    - Fibonacci (using high/low of $1347.xx/$1101.xx) re-trace 38.2% @ ~$1195 & 50% @ $1224 (unlikely IMO due to falling channel),
    - PSAR just flipped to topside $1220.39 and will be falling,
    - lower highs and lows (which BTW intra-day penetrated support of 8/8-8/23),
    - Recent (Aug 15-17 & 9/8) and past (Nov. 18, 19, 24 '10) resistance in the $1200/$1210 price range (centered around ~$1205),
    - HFTs, Quants, etc. can see the same indicators we see and would likely respond as we would - exit, go short, buy puts (causing a short into the market), ...,
    - per Barron's, ETFs are in "lock step" more than anytime since financial crises depths; 19 ETFs across broad equities and income markets; 10 S&P sectors have correlations of 96% vs. 82% three months ago; looks a lot like post-Lehman 2008 and spring of 2010 when conditions spurred QE 2,
    - starting in the week before "Twist" announcement and through Wednesday US-stock ETFs had $4.3B net outflows recorded while international-stock ETFs had >$3B net inflows.

    Disclosure: no position (exited SDS Thursday - missed $0.135 per share upside) will likely enter SPXU around one of the levels I've mentioned if charts suggest it.

    I only started doing this stuff a few years ago and am still early on the learning curve, so temper my comments appropriately.

    Sep 24, 2011. 03:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 12: Beginning Sept. 22, 2011 [View instapost]
    (XIDE): I don't know if this has much to do with it, but we are in "window dressing" season.

    Funds and folks reduce (a lot of) their losing positions and increase their winners to make sure they look good at EOQ and make their bonuses.

    If the analysts/investing institutions still believe in the story it *might* cause price to start rising again after EOQ. Since trades settle at trade+3 normally, we might see buying start 2 days before EOQ, or maybe everybody just takes a break from the frenetic adjustment period and starts afresh in October.

    Another thought: Exide is part of the Russell 2000, 3000, and Global Indexes and many funds and institutions match their portfolio to one or more of these indexes. So even if they are reducing their position for window dressing I think they are likely to keep an eye towards increasing the position again if the expectations are good or any substantial price appreciation starts to occur.

    A lot of this is supposition on my part and there are, as mentioned in other comments, other factors that may be affecting the share price as well.

    One thing I think folks are either overlooking or under-valuing is the awarding of "Approved Supplier" status by Federated Auto Parts - a substantial new outlet for Exide products.

    This revenue stream was *not* in place prior to May of this year. The addition of this new outlet may (more than) offset reduced economic growth around the world. It represents, at a minimum, a *potential* market share gain.

    As start/stop becomes more prevalent in Europe, and eventually world-wide several years in the future, the batteries for these systems will need replacement as inspections become more thorough and frequent - not that far off. Exide will be well-positioned to compete for a substantial slice of that business.

    The preceding considerations combined with the run-off of the restructuring charges, getting their recycling plant back in full operation and the recent (and possibly continuing) weakening of commodity prices - especially metals - may cause surprises to the upside in the not-to-distant future.

    A cheap gamble would be to buy some slightly out-of-the money calls for early next year (or nearer *if* you a very bullish near-term). Friday's closing was at $3.97. $5 strikes for Dec. and Mar. can be had for ~$0.25 and ~$0.50 per share respectively. These two months have the most open interest and trading volume so you are likely to be able to either exit or take profits quickly if desired. Other months might be more difficult.

    Another way to play it is to buy in-the-money $2.50 strikes. These generally have less liquidity and you effectively lock in the share price at time of purchase plus time premium and fees. It can be harder to exit in-the-money calls at an attractive price (unless share price appreciates substantially), so make sure you are fairly committed if you choose this path.

    These are the simplest options plays - there are many complex options strategies that let you make profits if the price moves a certain amount , stays where it is, ... Just be aware of time decay - if you're long it is your enemy. If short it is your friend.

    Another possibility is to buy shares and short covered calls, raking in premium. This is the least risky of the simple options plays *if* you don't mind giving up some *potential* upside and don't mind riding out the down moves. This is an excellent strategy for long-term investors.

    Sep 24, 2011. 10:50 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #203, September 22, 2011 [View instapost]
    See this from David Jackson

    Sep 24, 2011. 09:55 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #203, September 22, 2011 [View instapost]
    I've noticed over a long time that Friday's tend to have fewer comments scattered around in the blogs here.

    I think it has to do with approaching weekend: maybe folks balancing things out, reviewing, planning for the coming week, ... and let's not forget an occasional glimpse of real life peeking in and interrupting things.

    Sep 24, 2011. 09:52 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #203, September 22, 2011 [View instapost]
    "Did the Government kill the banks? Bove says yes"

    A lightweight article, not really all that much in there, but ...

    U.S. bank lending has been on the decline since March, with overall loan volume falling between 0.1% and 3.2% each week, according to the Federal Reserve.

    Reserves at the U.S. Central bank have risen by $1.6 trillion while overall lending has declined by $84 billion. That’s a bad sign for an economy that needs to fuel a recovery at least in part through credit.

    Bove's conclusion makes sense to me... except that I feel more agreeable to this: "Perhaps Bove might accept the thesis that the banks, having mortally wounded themselves through poor lending practices, are suffering from the care of Washington as doctor."

    Sep 23, 2011. 05:53 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 12: Beginning Sept. 22, 2011 [View instapost]
    AFAIK, all OECD countries have a pretty good handle on the pollution issues while China has a nasty history in every area of being weak regarding pollution.

    They are know supposedly trying to improve - they have initiatives going in the REE space, e.g., and recently took some actions regarding battery manufacturers in China.

    As JP has pointed out, batteries and lead are (one of?) the most heavily recycled products in the world. For reasons of both pollution and cost (recovery is much cheaper than mining), should not be any problem outside of places such as China and even there it shouldn't go on much longer.

    Sep 23, 2011. 05:44 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 12: Beginning Sept. 22, 2011 [View instapost]
    I think you got it - "issued" and "assigned" seems to me to mean the patent is in force.

    John will know for sure though.

    Sep 23, 2011. 05:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 12: Beginning Sept. 22, 2011 [View instapost]
    I'm suspecting that with the recent market action, Gelbaum may have been in a position to have to unload some more? He hasn't exhausted the quarter's allocation yet has he?

    If that's what it was, the market maker didn't help him a lot today - he could have had better prices for his shares. 'Course, as you've pointed out - the mm already bought them at a likely better price.

    Sep 23, 2011. 03:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 12: Beginning Sept. 22, 2011 [View instapost]
    (AXPW): Some weaker hands, or Quercus(?) showed up around 15:03-15:06 and we dropped as low as $0.506 on ~81.5K shares traded. Total volume at that time jumped to 200K. So it was a large percentage of volume to that point.

    Some larger trades in there - a could of 10K and a ~23.8K.

    Congrats Maya and any others that scarfed those shares.

    Sep 23, 2011. 03:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Collective Wisdom Watch: 'This Isn't A Bear Market - It's How Things Will Be From Now On' [View article]
    OG has it right as the election significance is not in the change of personnel at the top, but in the change in the electorate sentiment which will filter into the congressional and executive actions that permit the capitalistic spirit to emerge again, over time, slowly but surely replacing the "nanny state" mentality which has gripped this nation for too long (?? is any time at all *not* "too long").

    Maybe it's just another cycle, but a sorely needed one as the pendulum swings inexorably from one extreme to the other, seldom settling in the middle.

    That is the constant state ("state of change") of both the democratically-driven republic and the economy.

    So, it's really no change at all in the grand state of things, which I believe Mr. Shaefer's article points out in a subtle way.

    Sep 23, 2011. 02:34 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 12: Beginning Sept. 22, 2011 [View instapost]
    (AXPW): A couple of nice size trades just went off: 20K $0.59, 34.1K $0.559 @ 13:22:57 and 13:25:20 respectively.

    That >50% of the day's volume so far, 107.45K.

    The falling former support line is $0.56 - we're pushing on it. If we get over it, theres some immediate "maneuvering room" before the falling resistance and/or the prior pps resistance.

    Sep 23, 2011. 01:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 12: Beginning Sept. 22, 2011 [View instapost]
    Well, let's hope our stupid government officials make the loan ... *and* then buy CDSs on it. One or more of the "banksters" would probably be glad to write them as, overall looking at their exposures, they don't seem to have learned much from the AIG fiasco.

    Oh, BTW, couple with a "No Bank Bail Out" policy, of course.

    Sep 23, 2011. 01:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • REE/Strategic Minerals Concentrator, September 21, 2011 [View instapost]
    Thanks to you sir!

    Sep 23, 2011. 12:13 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment