Seeking Alpha

H. T. Love

 
View as an RSS Feed
View H. T. Love's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Stock ideas for 2011 [View instapost]
    (CPST): Increased recruiting indicative of transition to broader customer base, higher volumes coming. Means, I think, that the coming report has to be good.

    seekingalpha.com/insta...

    HardToLove
    Jun 8 08:38 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Quickchat #181, June 4, 2011 [View instapost]
    (CPST): Might be a very positive report coming. Job postings went from 6 to 12 now with several indicating structural changes one would expect with a transition to much higher and wider volume customer base.

    This coming report had better be good, at a minimum, and surprisingly better than expected. Otherwise it makes me think DJ has forgotten to manage to cash-flow, predominately, and gone off the deep end.

    www.capstoneturbine.co.../

    HardToLove
    Jun 8 08:36 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • REE/Strategic Minerals Concentrator, June 5, 2011 [View instapost]
    (NTU): Wants to issue 470K ordinary shares via warrants, IIUC.
    20K @ $0.15 3/2012 options and 450K $0.20 9/2012 options.

    www.asx.com.au/asx/sta...

    HardToLove
    Jun 8 07:06 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • REE/Strategic Minerals Concentrator, June 5, 2011 [View instapost]
    (LYSCF),(LYSDY): S&P ASX down 0.7%, rather large compared to recent iIRC. Meanwhile, Lynas decided to reverse course and rose by 1.44% on slightly below average volume. The 20 day SMA, ~A$2.21 is still above the pps and trending down.

    The AUD continues to deteriorate against the USD and a currency converted close would yield a US$2.2491. A similar percentage move in the U.S. market would give US$2.28.

    With pre-market looking pretty dour, it would invigorating to see an equivalent percentage move take the price counter to wider sentiment.

    Here's last evening's result down under.

    U.S... AM 6/6.. AM 6/7. AM 6/8
    Last.... 2.160.... 2.090.... 2.120
    $+/-.. -0.040... -0.070... 0.030
    Bid...... 2.150.... 2.090.... 2.110
    Offer... 2.160.... 2.100.... 2.130
    Open.. 2.170.... 2.100.... 2.110
    High.... 2.200.... 2.120.... 2.140
    Low.... 2.120.... 2.050.... 2.070
    Vol 48.356M 52.202M 47.472M

    U.S. AM 5/30........ 5/31....... 6/1......... 6/2......... 6/3
    Last.... 2.260...... 2.370... 2.330..... 2.270..... 2.200
    $+/-.... 0.000...... 0.110... 0.040.... -0.060... -0.070
    Bid...... 2.250...... 2.350.... 2.330..... 2.260..... 2.200
    Offer... 2.270...... 2.380.... 2.340..... 2.280..... 2.220
    Open.. 2.270..... 2.270..... 2.340..... 2.260..... 2.270
    High.... 2.270..... 2.380..... 2.360..... 2.300..... 2.300
    Low.... 2.215...... 2.260..... 2.310..... 2.220..... 2.200
    Vol 44.503M 156.118M 48.816M 62.572M 50.554M

    HardToLove
    Jun 8 06:58 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • REE/Strategic Minerals Concentrator, June 5, 2011 [View instapost]
    "outstanding" -> "outstanding warrants".

    Sorry!

    HardToLove
    Jun 7 07:31 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • REE/Strategic Minerals Concentrator, June 5, 2011 [View instapost]
    (GWMGF): From the Q & A session ...

    Got reminded that one of the reasons price has a hard time moving - outstanding. At end of march, there was 63M. Now 57M-58M outstanding at ~7M @ $0.50 and ~17M $0.45.

    Exercise of these warrants will also provide a substantial portion of the funding for the various expansions. Of course, when these are exercised they are available for sale in the market. If pps is substantial at the time, it's natural to assume some will take profits, suppressing pps.

    No current plans for any dilutive financing. Should know firmly by September if any of their financing plans need to be altered. Priorities are via off-take, debt at reasonable levels first.

    HardToLove
    Jun 7 06:42 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • REE/Strategic Minerals Concentrator, June 5, 2011 [View instapost]
    (GWMGF): Jim did a little stutter-step in answering a question about the announcement date of the JV partner.

    He first said "in July" but quickly retraced and said "by July".

    If we speak the same brand of English, I take that to mean on or before the first of July.

    HardToLove

    P.S. No dilution planned - expects fanancing provided by off-take agreements.
    Jun 7 06:06 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • REE/Strategic Minerals Concentrator, June 5, 2011 [View instapost]
    (GWMGF): For anyine who missed the latest GWM presentation ...

    www.gwmg.ca/conf-calls...

    HardToLove
    Jun 7 05:41 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • REE/Strategic Minerals Concentrator, June 5, 2011 [View instapost]
    (GWMGF): Actually, considering we are making a turn from the latest down leg, volume wasn't bad - 244K vs. the 25 day average of ~416K. And the volume was higher than 2 of the last 3 days and just under one of them.

    Considering that pps is "trapped" between a very short-term falling resistance and a slowly rising medium-term support (when I say "trapped" I mean it's smacking both sides trying to get out of the box), that volume is not bad. Folks are understandably reluctant to do much until they see a break one way or the other.

    Add in that the high is just under the 10 and 20 day SMAs, both fairly "flat" in trajectory ATM.

    I wouldn't be surprised to see lower volume again Wednesday unless a move out of the box occurs, and even that might be low-volume if the move comes late or is not substantial in it's direction.

    TA indicators mixed, so no help there right now.

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    Jun 7 04:32 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • REE/Strategic Minerals Concentrator, June 5, 2011 [View instapost]
    And that puts Arnold right where they figured/wanted to be in offering the samarium/cobalt magnets as an alternative. Samarium is not in short supply and has better high-temperature performance characteristics - ideal for EVs.

    I forgot who posted the link originally, but I thank them!

    It's this kind of sharing that allows us to stay ahead of the curve and (maybe) wish that Arnold was publicly traded.

    www.arnoldmagnetics.co...

    HardToLove
    Jun 7 03:47 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • REE/Strategic Minerals Concentrator, June 5, 2011 [View instapost]
    An excellent chain of reasoning and one that inexorably leads to refutation of all the "oversupply" calls.

    The *only* way I can envision over-supply occurring is if two "events" happen at disparate times.

    The first is that the economy must continue (or begin again?) issuing signals of strengthening demand in the areas that require the REEs, This must come first and must continue for several years so that demand concerns are transmitted via continually escalating prices and/or shortfalls.

    This provides the signal that keeps the "greenfield" players optimistic and able to raise capital.

    The next step must be a collapse of the demand. This is quite likely as the business "cycles" having been getting of shorter duration (i.e. higher frequency) in the recent decades because of the lack of fiscal restraint and the existence of a central bank issuing "debt money".

    The problem comes with the "this is quite likely" part of the prior paragraph. The problem *is* timing I think. I can not imagine a way that the next "down cycle" will *not* happen before these "greenfielders" make it to production.

    That leaves us in a position of not knowing the demand-supply situation because we don't know how deep the drop in demand would be, leaving us possibly in over-supply, or if demand might remain strong enough such that whatever supply is available might be balanced or even in a shortfall position.

    IMO, the factors of the economy are even more critical to this story than the lead-times for new suppliers to appear and actually produce. And more critical than the "running the numbers" you did so admirably.

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    Jun 7 03:17 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quickchat #181, June 4, 2011 [View instapost]
    "leveraged shorts"?

    Is that when they are all in a bunch? :-))

    HardToLove
    Jun 7 11:52 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quickchat #181, June 4, 2011 [View instapost]
    And you have added, already, to that quality that makes it great!

    Thanks, be safe and and have so much fun that you "have to come back to work to rest up"!

    HardToLove
    Jun 7 11:51 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • REE/Strategic Minerals Concentrator, June 5, 2011 [View instapost]
    Couldn't stand it anymore - went a bought a new video card to replace the one that had blown a couple capacitors and was causing freezes the last couple of weeks. So this is late this A.M.

    (LYSCF), (LYSDY): S&P ASX down 0.16% with Lynas dropping on healthy volume by 3.2%. PPS is below a falling 20 day SMA, ~A$2.22, and with the volume today I would guess share price is southbound further.

    A similar percentage move in the U.S. market would put the closing U.S. price at US$2.187. The U.S. dollar continues to weaken (DXY) but the AUD is still suffering more from its own woes. A currency conversion of the close would yield US$2.2353. Both of these prices are well below our Monday close of $2.26.

    So far today, the U.S. market is trying to fight the trend, but it looks like volume may not come in to support the move.

    Here's last evening's result down under.

    U.S... AM 6/6... AM 6/7
    Last.... 2.160.... 2.090
    $+/-.. -0.040... -0.070
    Bid...... 2.150.... 2.090
    Offer... 2.160.... 2.100
    Open.. 2.170.... 2.100
    High.... 2.200.... 2.120
    Low.... 2.120.... 2.050
    Vol 48.356M 52.202M

    U.S. AM 5/30........ 5/31....... 6/1......... 6/2......... 6/3
    Last.... 2.260...... 2.370... 2.330..... 2.270..... 2.200
    $+/-.... 0.000...... 0.110... 0.040.... -0.060... -0.070
    Bid...... 2.250...... 2.350.... 2.330..... 2.260..... 2.200
    Offer... 2.270...... 2.380.... 2.340..... 2.280..... 2.220
    Open.. 2.270..... 2.270..... 2.340..... 2.260..... 2.270
    High.... 2.270..... 2.380..... 2.360..... 2.300..... 2.300
    Low.... 2.215...... 2.260..... 2.310..... 2.220..... 2.200
    Vol 44.503M 156.118M 48.816M 62.572M 50.554M

    HardToLove
    Jun 7 11:24 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quickchat #181, June 4, 2011 [View instapost]
    For those looking to play NG, but waiting for prices, maybe it better to play NG *and* oil in the way Keith Schaefer suggests.

    seekingalpha.com/artic...

    I've not researched companies yet, but the foundational thesis seems to have a lot of merit.

    And one can step forward and back from that too: transport of the product on the back side and suppliers of fraccing equipment and services to the frac companies on the front end.

    Caveat: if the economy is really getting ready to fall flat on its face, the thesis may do likewise as energy demand really has to respond to GDP to a large degree. Even (residential) heating and cooling can suffer when many (most?) under the top 4% of income and wealth are struggling.

    HardToLove
    Jun 6 05:26 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
17,254 Comments
25,578 Likes