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H. T. Love  

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  • QuickChat #204, September 30, 2011 [View instapost]
    >Jakurtz: that's the sort of question most of us can not help you with. Each person is different.

    We do share things we might do though.

    One option is just to go to cash, giving up a little up side and eliminating any more down side until things stabilize.

    Others might suggest hedges of one type or another might be useful to you. Some folks are using (SDS) and I'm recently playing with (SPXU). But these also have risks and, being levered, can have tracking slippage if you hold for long periods in volatile markets.

    There are likely other thoughts out there too, but none of us really want to offer advice that may not be appropriate for the combination of risk tolerance, pain tolerance, ... that another individual possesses.

    Oct 3, 2011. 06:36 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Projections/ Intelligence for the 2011 Holiday Shopping Season (Sales, Jobs). [View instapost]
    I'm thinking that most orders were placed already, when the dollar was weaker. If the contracts don't include an adjustment mechanism, but are instead fixed nominal-dollar prices, the retailers will suffer as they pay in strong dollars (assuming it doesn't weaken soon), effectively narrowing the margin as they bought "high" and have to discount prices to consumers, effectively selling "low"..

    And, of course, the dollar will tank immediately after, leaving the retailers with less purchasing power even if reported nominal dollar sales look half-way reasonable.

    'Course, that's just the pessimist in me speaking.

    Oct 3, 2011. 06:21 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • REE/Strategic Minerals Concentrator, October 3, 2011 [View instapost]
    (GWMGF): Let's hope not! Chi and others have pointed out the issues with cash and if another offering is to be made we sure don't want it to be in the $0.3x range - warrants or not.

    If it gets that low, with the upcoming meeting on the horizon and no firm details about the JV for the concentrator, I would likely stay away.

    Just too many "unknown unknowns" in operation ATM.

    If GWM will succeed, I won't miss 20 or 30 cents of profit at all.

    Oct 3, 2011. 06:14 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Projections/ Intelligence for the 2011 Holiday Shopping Season (Sales, Jobs). [View instapost]
    Great work Rat!

    I'm betting holiday seasons are weaker too, just based on the lack of job growth. Deals or no deals, when more and more "real people" (as opposed to the phantom people conjured up by the BLS "jobs created" voodoo mathematics) are out of work or even underemployed, they will cut back regardless of deals.

    Add in the fact that prices of sales that are made are likely to be heavily discounted and that makes it harder to meet YoY comps.

    A retailer might sell the same quantity, but the prices will likely be lower - "deflation" - resulting in lower comps.

    I assume the market will not take this into account and so the market will have a big negative reaction.

    Oct 3, 2011. 05:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • REE/Strategic Minerals Concentrator, October 3, 2011 [View instapost]
    Don't feel too bad (CPST) was down 14% until AH - then came back to down 8.xx% and now back to down 14.02%.

    If I wasn't so negative on the overall market right now, I would see a buying opportunity for GWM and Lynas right here.

    But I'm a sourpuss right now.

    Futures right now suggest S&P 500 tomorrow initially @ $1091. I'm not sure that will hold. If it look like a big-time break, I'll shoot at (SPXU) again.

    Carter Worth was just on CNBC and says next support is $1065.

    I guess as long as the dollar (DXY +$0.89, $79.68, right now) keeps catching bids, we will keep spiraling downward.

    Oct 3, 2011. 05:32 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #204, September 30, 2011 [View instapost]
    (UPRO): Well, worked well until 15:48 when stick save petered out.

    Got out a little early - loss $59.17.

    If it hadn't reversed where it did, I would have let it ride since it had bounced off the critical supports today.

    But, was not to be!

    Looks like (SPX) will move on down to $1090 support. Probably won't hold there either.

    Oct 3, 2011. 04:01 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #204, September 30, 2011 [View instapost]
    (UPRO): Playing stick save entered @ $42.93 for *small* position.

    Plan to exit near close.

    Based on futures price strengthening and chart and knowing that stick saves are commomplace.

    Oct 3, 2011. 03:09 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrater 13: Beginning Sept. 26, 2011  [View instapost]
    (AXPW) My market depth & watch list say 286,520.

    Oct 3, 2011. 03:07 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Trading Massive Volatility. [View instapost]
    Rat, great work! Confirms something I been suspecting, but not quantified.

    As a second move to "The Dark Side", I shorted and exited via (SPXU) two days last week, based on contacting a short-term rising support and wishing to reduce risk. Of course, that means I missed $1 profit on the continued move down of (SPY) Friday. Being new on this side of the line I'm overly cautious. The (SDS) move also paid off well. Bad results on my shot at (TMV) though - had to cut losses on that one.

    For the (SPX) up moves, I suggest (UPRO), a triple long.

    Based on futures action AH Friday, I see us potentially hitting $1110-$1120 Monday A.M. (pre-market will tell more but I'll be out of pocket until est. 11:00 A.M.) and then a reversal to begin to move towards $1165-$1170, at *best*.

    We are currently in a falling trading range whose upper limit right now is ~1210, but our recent high missed the upper limit substantially, suggesting trading in the lower half of the falling channel (low is currently ~ $1100).

    Based on volume patterns, we may have a sudden break below that level if some catalyst appears. Sans that, I believe we'll do a *brief* period of consolidation in this lower range.

    With earnings season approaching and "window dressing" over, I believe this change in pattern will appear soon.

    Early earnings season data points could also influence the trend - especially forward guidance I think.

    There's also a *very* short-term triangle formation building - a continuation pattern *normally*. This means overall trend down should continue - to sub-$1100 IMO. Don't have a feel for how long it will take - news could influence that substantially.

    Last thought: if people come to their senses on long-dated U.S. treasuries and bonds, we might see some rotation as it's been touted in the media over the last couple of weeks that S&P is now yielding substantially better than those other instruments.

    This *might* cause an unexpected strength to appear in equities.

    Oct 2, 2011. 04:35 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • REE/Strategic Minerals Concentrator, September 27, 2011 [View instapost]
    I've no problem with Kaiser speaking true. But It could have been more succinctly demonstrated is my only gripe. We just have to much DD and stuff to read to constantly wade through a screed that's at least twice as long as need to get the salient thought, opinions and data points across.

    Having said that, I do understand the need to be lengthy and thorough as I also tend to be longer-winded than might be needed for my audience.

    Oct 2, 2011. 11:25 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrater 13: Beginning Sept. 26, 2011  [View instapost]
    (XIDE): For any following, GENDELL JEFFREY L ET AL sold

    9/22-9/26/11: 368K $3.932, 386K $3.961, 60.6K $4.0101.

    Thx to Ecomike at Investorshub for the post.

    Oct 2, 2011. 10:57 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrater 13: Beginning Sept. 26, 2011  [View instapost]
    That "url" is really SPXU - ultra-short SPX.

    Edit got me again!

    Sep 30, 2011. 06:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • REE/Strategic Minerals Concentrator, September 27, 2011 [View instapost]
    That was good read Jimp! I appreciate the link.

    It would have been even better if he had spent less time trashing Hykawy - just stating why he disagreed and a few examples would have been sufficient - and allowed us to get to the meat of the matter in about half the time.

    Thanks again,
    Sep 30, 2011. 06:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • REE/Strategic Minerals Concentrator, September 27, 2011 [View instapost]

    I know your feelings as I have been there.

    I will not belabor suggestions I've made on the emotional issues.

    But I do think you need to spend some time considering how you can manage the emotional aspects which can lead to bad decisions.

    Maybe some googling about "risk management" would help put your mind at ease. The trick with that is you have rules-based strategies that gives you some solid metrics to evaluate the potential upside vs. downside risk.

    Once you mentally commit to operating by rules, a lot of the emotional aspects should go away. You effectively predetermine that you give up some upside risk (*potential* gains) in exchange for reduction of downside risk.

    The nice thing about that is you no longer regret a missed upside - it was just an effect of good risk management which you decided in advance was appropriate for you.

    I hope this helps.

    Sep 30, 2011. 04:08 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rethinking how Seeking Alpha calculates Top Commenters [View instapost]
    And along the same 80/20 rule, guess where the first early and, maybe, most valuable ideas and improvements originate from?

    I do believe that 80/20 is universal (almost) and that, in "our" case, this 20% who "squeak" also contribute a lot beyond just page hits.

    Of course, that does depend on SA actually responding to some things beyond what it takes to monetize the efforts short-term.

    Like getting new comments accurately flagged (open since January 2011). Adding such as "skip to next new comment" in articles and blogs that go multi-hundred comments, etc.

    Sep 30, 2011. 02:38 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment