Are Oil and Natural Gas Cheap or Expensive? [View article]
Ever since Boone started his campaign, I was convinced that the NG story as a "bridge", in certain scenarios, made sense. Then SA participant "One Eye" made me aware of the pollution issues.
As I have learned more, only one thought keeps surfacing: why in the hell are the folks that are in the NG E&P area pursuing the same old obfuscate and delay policies in addressing the issues rather than jumping on board with an attitude of "let's work together to solve the problems".
Certainly we have the intellect, technology and wherewithal to address and fix the problems up front, rather than following the same old route. And if they can't be fixed, then certainly the efforts to expand NG production via the current "fraccing" methodologies should be terminated.
Even those in the industry have to live on the planet.
The argument about the "fraccing" being well below the water tables seems rather thin in that we all know that the geologic formations are not static and change over time. This poses the risk that the toxins left in the ground could enter the water supply in the future.
The processing of the water returned to the surface seems less of a problem as cleaning, disposal and re-cycling technologies already exist (and will likely improve in the future).
My other major concern in that area is the copious amount of water used in the process. Fresh and safe inland water supplies are already under duress in the U.S. Some way must be found to ensure that the water used is returned to the system, in potable quality, with minimal net loss to the system.
I'm afraid that unfortunately that we will follow the same old "confront and conflate" policies that we have followed in the past.
I'm not concerned so much with the reduced savings in CO2 emissions. *If* CO2 is really a problem, any gain from the high single-digit percentages upward seems a significant benefit.
Are there better strategies to wean ourselves from energy dependency? Probably. Unfortunately, with policies being determined by lobbying budgets, rather than technical and economic fundamentals, we are not likely to pursue them until significant damage of various types has been done.
Leading Economic Indicator Isn't Indicating the Real Recovery [View article]
"The Federal Reserves quantitative easing (liquidity) programs have created false readings in the Leading Economic Index"
With a weighting of .3580, the largest in the list of factors (40% larger than the next largest), this is not surprising. Similarly, with non-farm payroll the largest factor in the coincident list, the "JobLOSS Recovery" will keep it permanently "flat-lined" for some time to come.
Since the LEI is now dominated by new fiat money creation, we can expect that the LEI will continue to indicate "green sh*ts" as long as the QE remains in place.
I still think, as Al-erian of Pimco suggested, the unemployment is no longer a lagging indicator, but a leading one.
Which means that continuing "less bad" unemployment doesn't help as the real employment level continues to deteriorate, albeit at a lower level.
As Dave said, the Fed can't tell. We all find ourselves in the position of having to discount the government data, regardless of source, and put eyes on the real world to make our best judgments.
"This limits the ability of an economy to expand through borrowing."
Since we are aware of the diminishing returns of borrowing as debt increases, this may be a long-term benefit, regardless of the short-term angst.
Debt got us into this crap, it sure as hell ought to be avoided, at ths time, as a cure for what ails us.
"The government and the Fed believe a strong equities market is paramount for economic health."
ROTFLMAO. "Strong"? Have you noted the volume decline since the start of the year? The stick saves? The record profits of GS over the quarter where they only failed to make profits on three trading days? HFT? "Flash Orders"? The market following oil up and down? The dollar?
Oh well, it doesn't matter - the WLI says we are recovering - it must be so. Yep, corporate profits will rise and that's what America's all about now, isn't it? Damn the populace - they have use to corporations only as wages deflate and corporations can transfer some operations back from overseas to save on the shipping costs and increase profits.
And the nice profits reported last quarter? Most were paired with reduced reported top-lines.
I'm sure glad the economy is recovering so that coporate profits improve, with no benefit to the populace. "Jobless Recovery" is the new norm here. Properly it should be termed "Jobloss Recovery".
Can Rising Stock Markets Serve as a Confirmation of a Crashing Economy? [View article]
Great article!
Being relative new at this "game", I had done lots of research and reading and come to the conclusion that the existence of Central Banks was a well-orchestrated fraud upon the country and its citizens.
If I recall correctly (not sure I do) Abe Lincoln got rid of the CBs and the country flourished for a very long time. The question was posed "Why incur debt to present the media of exchange for commerce"? And why give such power over the economy of a nation to a private institution?
I wish we could explore/try these questions and the option of no CB and see what results. From what I've found on the net ...
The only reason I can see for the CBs is to maintain power and influence for the corrupt.
I Have a Bad Feeling About This Market [View article]
Gvsmitty
"Yes, my suggestion would be to keep Seeking Alpha articles from unqualified members out of Yahoo Finance's main page. "
Hmm. The folks you want to be the exclusive authors on SA are those that led all the investors to portfolio destruction by not/improperly analyzing and forcasting, even in a general way (Schiff, Roubini, et al excluded) what was coming.
I guess you would also vote to keep the same politicians in charge of our country's political system too?
That doesn't strike me as too bright.
I like to hear/read thoughts from "outside" the establishment. You can never tell where a real gem lies.
Fixing Wall Street: Cutting The Gordian Knot [View article]
A wonderful article - it touched me to see that there's still a sense of right and wrong, beneficial and destructive, ... somewhere in our society.
For the OWS folks, I have one wish: since they have not been afforded the opportunity to study in depth the markets, economies, ... or access to such as this article, I hope that those who have had such opportunities will take the lead to address the obviously real distress the 99% have suffered as we decimated our middle class and transferred 98%(?) of the nations wealth to the top 4%(?).
One of the functions of our society should be to maintain opportunity for the least of our population (however you define least). That is nothing more than "enlightened self interest", at its basest level, "good morals" at its finest level. It is what all of us desire in common - only opportunity.
I'm afraid that we have removed the opportunity for all but the most fortunate, be it through wealth or education or other circumstance.
Cash for Clunkers May Cost Up to $45,354 Per Vehicle [View article]
See my comment above about what Auto Nation is seeing. *If* Jackson is correct, a great number are exactly the opposite of what you suggest. They may be, in the majority, the responsible ones and are doing the fiscally correct thing for *themselves*. No one should blame them, with all the irresponsible ones who *have* benefited from this mess which many of them helped to create - GS, BAC, et al and the irresponsible ones who should not have beenhome buyers, for example.
HardToLove
On Jul 31 01:54 PM dividendmachine1 wrote:
> Every person who has a beater got rid of it and teh taxpayer picked > up the tab > > Another example of taking tax dollars from those who are responsible > to subsidize someone who is not
"OPEC. It is not in OPEC’s best interest to let oil prices get way out of control, to the point where the global economy contracts and then shuts down."
But it is in the interest of GS (calliing for $85 this year and $95 next and holding a *ton* of futures) and JPM, with literally a boatload sitting off-shore in an arbitrage play, for prices to continue on up. They move markets and will do so to benefit themselves regardless of damage to the rest of the economy.
Thanks for the great information. Anyone want to speculate on the (unintended) effects of the new credit card rules that take effect next year? Already I have seen one card affected - my grace period has been reduced 5 days (no effect really, I never carry a balance) meaning that the meager % I can garner via the "float" is reduced even further.
Talk all over the place now about effects on those with poorer scores (mine are very good) - no/reduced credit - and even those with great scores - "rewards" programs going away, higher interest rates even for those with good scores, etc.
Clark Howard suggested the possibility, while stating he believed it unlikely, that all grace periods might be eliminated. That is, even on purchases where the issuer garners a % from the merchant, the user would begin to accrue interest charges from the day of the purchase.
Knowing our current environment, I'm not so sure it is unlikely.
I'm already preparing a contingency plan to use cash, U.S. Postal service, direct bill payment via my online banking, etc. to make sure I continue to get as much mileage as possible out of the money I use.
If enough folks do the same, the end result could be less profit for the issuers and transaction processors (Mastercard, Visa), not more.
Further, it could mean that credit usage declines regardless of availability, implying reduced consumption since the savings rate has jumped to 6.4% - another source of pressure on the recovery in the economy.
If nothng else, it may delay the oft touted "end of physical money". I have never used, and never will use, a debit card except to make deposits to my accounts after hours at the ATM.
Being an old fart, sometimes I watch the congress at work and think of the title of that old song "Bring in the clowns" (Joan Collins?). I would laugh if I wasn't so busy crying about what has become of a once promising nation. But I haven't lost all hope. We've been through worse.
Stocks Will Fall 37% or Gold Will Rally 60% [View article]
Good article. However I noticed that the stocks outperformed gold in more years than gold outperformed stocks, 86 to 29 (before you holler about the math, I included the starting year for each period in the duration and included 2009 for the last period).
Being the curious type, and noticing some apparent correlation to certain historic event periods, I wonder if you can provide any historical economic or world-events context.
From that we might be able to apply this information to our current situation.
Of course, with the instant communication of world events, electronic trading, vastly increased retail trading on electronic platforms, etc., it might be difficult. But at least we could make a SWAG (Scientific Wild-Assed Guesse) about what might really will happen, rather than what happened in the (numerical only) past.
More on the Misalignment of the U.S. Treasury and Taxpayer Interests [View article]
Great article. I'm not surprised. The fox is guarding the henhouse.
Human nature says that folks tend to have bias based on their background. Bankers managing our treasury will tend to favor a banker's point of view.
Catch 22: we need banking expertise to do banking things, we should have little banking background so that we minimize the bias.
Alternately, we could get a very moral, independant, intelligent, experienced in business, and strong-willed head surrounded by the expertise needed from various backgrounds.
More on White House's Strong-Arming of Chrysler Hedge Fund Hold Outs [View article]
So, are you advocating that we are now, or should become, a relativistic morals society? I.e., because what is now being done is less heinous than what was done previously, it is ok?
Switching subjects, wasn't B. Obama a former law professor? If so, I find all this quite curious. I wonder what he was teaching all those young impressionable minds.
Regardless, as I have posted previously, I believe that the governments intrusion into, and abrogation of, property rights and law is the most serious threat to our society. I did not realize that it might be domonstrated so quickly.
HardToLove On May 03 09:13 AM dcb wrote:
> Our government had no legal right to torture people, engage in domestic > spying, imprison people without trial forever, or give weapons to > the contras. Those were just a few and there are many more. Hell > we made up the data that got us into a war with IRAQ and something > as trivial as this bothers you.
How The Micro-Hybrid Revolution Will Radically Change The Battery Market [View article]
"Norfolk was said to have ordered batteries in April 2012, it is now December 2012, and no delivery of batteries was made (as far as I know))."
And as pointed out to you before, and apparently consciously ignored, NSC increased the order size - a much more significant indicator than any delay due to internal scheduling demands.
Along with double posting the same comment (not this one ... yet) on JP's article and the concentrator, you have removed any doubt I may have had.
Are Oil and Natural Gas Cheap or Expensive? [View article]
As I have learned more, only one thought keeps surfacing: why in the hell are the folks that are in the NG E&P area pursuing the same old obfuscate and delay policies in addressing the issues rather than jumping on board with an attitude of "let's work together to solve the problems".
Certainly we have the intellect, technology and wherewithal to address and fix the problems up front, rather than following the same old route. And if they can't be fixed, then certainly the efforts to expand NG production via the current "fraccing" methodologies should be terminated.
Even those in the industry have to live on the planet.
The argument about the "fraccing" being well below the water tables seems rather thin in that we all know that the geologic formations are not static and change over time. This poses the risk that the toxins left in the ground could enter the water supply in the future.
The processing of the water returned to the surface seems less of a problem as cleaning, disposal and re-cycling technologies already exist (and will likely improve in the future).
My other major concern in that area is the copious amount of water used in the process. Fresh and safe inland water supplies are already under duress in the U.S. Some way must be found to ensure that the water used is returned to the system, in potable quality, with minimal net loss to the system.
I'm afraid that unfortunately that we will follow the same old "confront and conflate" policies that we have followed in the past.
I'm not concerned so much with the reduced savings in CO2 emissions. *If* CO2 is really a problem, any gain from the high single-digit percentages upward seems a significant benefit.
Are there better strategies to wean ourselves from energy dependency? Probably. Unfortunately, with policies being determined by lobbying budgets, rather than technical and economic fundamentals, we are not likely to pursue them until significant damage of various types has been done.
HardToLove
Leading Economic Indicator Isn't Indicating the Real Recovery [View article]
With a weighting of .3580, the largest in the list of factors (40% larger than the next largest), this is not surprising. Similarly, with non-farm payroll the largest factor in the coincident list, the "JobLOSS Recovery" will keep it permanently "flat-lined" for some time to come.
Since the LEI is now dominated by new fiat money creation, we can expect that the LEI will continue to indicate "green sh*ts" as long as the QE remains in place.
I still think, as Al-erian of Pimco suggested, the unemployment is no longer a lagging indicator, but a leading one.
Which means that continuing "less bad" unemployment doesn't help as the real employment level continues to deteriorate, albeit at a lower level.
As Dave said, the Fed can't tell. We all find ourselves in the position of having to discount the government data, regardless of source, and put eyes on the real world to make our best judgments.
HardToLove
Asset Price Driven Economic Recovery Underway [View article]
Thank you for the great work you do.
HardToLove
Asset Price Driven Economic Recovery Underway [View article]
Since we are aware of the diminishing returns of borrowing as debt increases, this may be a long-term benefit, regardless of the short-term angst.
Debt got us into this crap, it sure as hell ought to be avoided, at ths time, as a cure for what ails us.
"The government and the Fed believe a strong equities market is paramount for economic health."
ROTFLMAO. "Strong"? Have you noted the volume decline since the start of the year? The stick saves? The record profits of GS over the quarter where they only failed to make profits on three trading days? HFT? "Flash Orders"? The market following oil up and down? The dollar?
Oh well, it doesn't matter - the WLI says we are recovering - it must be so. Yep, corporate profits will rise and that's what America's all about now, isn't it? Damn the populace - they have use to corporations only as wages deflate and corporations can transfer some operations back from overseas to save on the shipping costs and increase profits.
And the nice profits reported last quarter? Most were paired with reduced reported top-lines.
I'm sure glad the economy is recovering so that coporate profits improve, with no benefit to the populace. "Jobless Recovery" is the new norm here. Properly it should be termed "Jobloss Recovery".
HardToLove
Can Rising Stock Markets Serve as a Confirmation of a Crashing Economy? [View article]
Being relative new at this "game", I had done lots of research and reading and come to the conclusion that the existence of Central Banks was a well-orchestrated fraud upon the country and its citizens.
If I recall correctly (not sure I do) Abe Lincoln got rid of the CBs and the country flourished for a very long time. The question was posed "Why incur debt to present the media of exchange for commerce"? And why give such power over the economy of a nation to a private institution?
I wish we could explore/try these questions and the option of no CB and see what results. From what I've found on the net ...
The only reason I can see for the CBs is to maintain power and influence for the corrupt.
HardToLove
I Have a Bad Feeling About This Market [View article]
"Yes, my suggestion would be to keep Seeking Alpha articles from unqualified members out of Yahoo Finance's main page. "
Hmm. The folks you want to be the exclusive authors on SA are those that led all the investors to portfolio destruction by not/improperly analyzing and forcasting, even in a general way (Schiff, Roubini, et al excluded) what was coming.
I guess you would also vote to keep the same politicians in charge of our country's political system too?
That doesn't strike me as too bright.
I like to hear/read thoughts from "outside" the establishment. You can never tell where a real gem lies.
Peace.
Mongolia Investment Climate At The Moment: Uh-Oh [View article]
Very comprehensive. Kudos to you. No one could ask for a better well-rounded consideration of all facets of the issues.
HardToLove
Fixing Wall Street: Cutting The Gordian Knot [View article]
For the OWS folks, I have one wish: since they have not been afforded the opportunity to study in depth the markets, economies, ... or access to such as this article, I hope that those who have had such opportunities will take the lead to address the obviously real distress the 99% have suffered as we decimated our middle class and transferred 98%(?) of the nations wealth to the top 4%(?).
One of the functions of our society should be to maintain opportunity for the least of our population (however you define least). That is nothing more than "enlightened self interest", at its basest level, "good morals" at its finest level. It is what all of us desire in common - only opportunity.
I'm afraid that we have removed the opportunity for all but the most fortunate, be it through wealth or education or other circumstance.
MHO,
HardToLove
Cash for Clunkers May Cost Up to $45,354 Per Vehicle [View article]
HardToLove
On Jul 31 01:54 PM dividendmachine1 wrote:
> Every person who has a beater got rid of it and teh taxpayer picked
> up the tab
>
> Another example of taking tax dollars from those who are responsible
> to subsidize someone who is not
The Oil Roller Coaster is Over [View article]
But it is in the interest of GS (calliing for $85 this year and $95 next and holding a *ton* of futures) and JPM, with literally a boatload sitting off-shore in an arbitrage play, for prices to continue on up. They move markets and will do so to benefit themselves regardless of damage to the rest of the economy.
My Humble Opinion
HardToLove
Plunge in Consumer Credit 2.0 [View article]
Thanks for the great information. Anyone want to speculate on the (unintended) effects of the new credit card rules that take effect next year? Already I have seen one card affected - my grace period has been reduced 5 days (no effect really, I never carry a balance) meaning that the meager % I can garner via the "float" is reduced even further.
Talk all over the place now about effects on those with poorer scores (mine are very good) - no/reduced credit - and even those with great scores - "rewards" programs going away, higher interest rates even for those with good scores, etc.
Clark Howard suggested the possibility, while stating he believed it unlikely, that all grace periods might be eliminated. That is, even on purchases where the issuer garners a % from the merchant, the user would begin to accrue interest charges from the day of the purchase.
Knowing our current environment, I'm not so sure it is unlikely.
I'm already preparing a contingency plan to use cash, U.S. Postal service, direct bill payment via my online banking, etc. to make sure I continue to get as much mileage as possible out of the money I use.
If enough folks do the same, the end result could be less profit for the issuers and transaction processors (Mastercard, Visa), not more.
Further, it could mean that credit usage declines regardless of availability, implying reduced consumption since the savings rate has jumped to 6.4% - another source of pressure on the recovery in the economy.
If nothng else, it may delay the oft touted "end of physical money". I have never used, and never will use, a debit card except to make deposits to my accounts after hours at the ATM.
Being an old fart, sometimes I watch the congress at work and think of the title of that old song "Bring in the clowns" (Joan Collins?). I would laugh if I wasn't so busy crying about what has become of a once promising nation. But I haven't lost all hope. We've been through worse.
HardToLove
Stocks Will Fall 37% or Gold Will Rally 60% [View article]
Being the curious type, and noticing some apparent correlation to certain historic event periods, I wonder if you can provide any historical economic or world-events context.
From that we might be able to apply this information to our current situation.
Of course, with the instant communication of world events, electronic trading, vastly increased retail trading on electronic platforms, etc., it might be difficult. But at least we could make a SWAG (Scientific Wild-Assed Guesse) about what might really will happen, rather than what happened in the (numerical only) past.
Thanks,
HardToLove
More on the Misalignment of the U.S. Treasury and Taxpayer Interests [View article]
Human nature says that folks tend to have bias based on their background. Bankers managing our treasury will tend to favor a banker's point of view.
Catch 22: we need banking expertise to do banking things, we should have little banking background so that we minimize the bias.
Alternately, we could get a very moral, independant, intelligent, experienced in business, and strong-willed head surrounded by the expertise needed from various backgrounds.
Any like that left in this political environment?
HardToLove
More on White House's Strong-Arming of Chrysler Hedge Fund Hold Outs [View article]
Switching subjects, wasn't B. Obama a former law professor? If so, I find all this quite curious. I wonder what he was teaching all those young impressionable minds.
Regardless, as I have posted previously, I believe that the governments intrusion into, and abrogation of, property rights and law is the most serious threat to our society. I did not realize that it might be domonstrated so quickly.
HardToLove
On May 03 09:13 AM dcb wrote:
> Our government had no legal right to torture people, engage in domestic
> spying, imprison people without trial forever, or give weapons to
> the contras. Those were just a few and there are many more. Hell
> we made up the data that got us into a war with IRAQ and something
> as trivial as this bothers you.
How The Micro-Hybrid Revolution Will Radically Change The Battery Market [View article]
And as pointed out to you before, and apparently consciously ignored, NSC increased the order size - a much more significant indicator than any delay due to internal scheduling demands.
Along with double posting the same comment (not this one ... yet) on JP's article and the concentrator, you have removed any doubt I may have had.
HardToLove