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AXPW: IntraDay Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting Beginning 09/02/2014 $AXPW http://seekingalpha.com/p/1x5yh Sep 3, 2014

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AXPW: IntraDay Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting Beginning 09/02/2014
Links to blogs older than the 01/01/2014 version, PIPE discussions, one year charts will be found only in that and older blogs. Most historical short sales related stuff has also been chopped.
In the below chart the volume is inverted to enhance readability! Be aware when you view it!
(rightclick and open in new tab, position cursor over image to be able to zoom and scroll)
Next are modified inflection point calculation charts bracketing a price chart for comparison.
The next two identically calculated inflection points are calculated differently from the original above. I have two different presentations of this newer version. The top one has all periods on the same scale. The bottom one has longer periods on the left scale and shorter periods on the right scale. The hope is that shorter period changes will be easier to spot. More work to do, this is a start, hopefully.
Other changes I want to try are still waiting for me to work on them.
(rightclick and open in new tab, position cursor over image to be able to zoom and scroll)
Older stuff for "2013 Dly Sht % of 'sells' values", Weekly 85% price summaries going back to 6/14/2012, and some daytoday VWAP changes stuff going back to 10/09 are available in AXPW: IntraDay Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting Beginning 10/1/2013.
Believing that the PIPE financing has run it's course, I'm not going to post stuff related that any more. The calculations will still be available if needed though.
09/19/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 51, MinTrSz: 20, MaxTrSz: 10200, Vol: 31192, AvTrSz: 612
Min. Pr: 3.6000, Max Pr: 3.8400, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 3.6676
# Buys, Shares: 18 10455, VW Avg Buy Pr: 3.6522
# Sells, Shares: 29 20350, VW Avg Sell Pr: 3.6753
# Unkn, Shares: 4 387, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 3.6731
Buy:Sell 1:1.95 (33.52% "buys"), DlyShts 10016 (32.11%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 49.22%
We keep VWAP lows whenever we get high volume, which we did today. Here's VWAPs from 9/8 forward: $5.2195, $4.1670, $4.1214, $4.1345, $4.1653, $3.8236, $3.7423, $3.8828, $3.8700 and $3.6676. You can do the math for presplit pricing.
It's starting to look like old times, yep, yep. On top of that, it's beginning to look like the buy and daily short percentage directional correlation may be returning, complete with "choppy" action. For the last three days buy percentage movements of 17.30%, 57.97%, 53.03% and 33.52% were matched by short sales percentage movements of 17.28%, 69.07%, 38.99% and 32.11%.
What happens if the pattern of weakness in the last and first weeks of the months is still in play? This week should have been one of the "flat to slightly higher" ones if the pattern was still in play.
Today may have had some EOD paint but the volume, number of trades and price range within the days norm makes me think it wasn't just paint today. With VWAP down 5.23% it would be natural to see some buyers appear. In the last seven minutes there were three trades totaling 3K shares, all at $3.65.
Again it was a bifurcated trading day. Through 13:22:47 we had 95.96% sells with a VWAP of $3.7166 on volume of 9,285 shares. From then to the close we had 46,653 shares traded with 39.28% buys (not as radically improved as yesterday's 88.86%) with a VWAP of $3.6624. Some of this latter action was strongly affected by four of our excessively larger trades (see note on trading breakdowns). The two largest, 10.2K and 5,573 occurred in this latter part of the day.
The potential selling pressure was there all day with offers at the open of 2K from ATDF and CSTI, 1.1K by ETRF. All these were at $4.20. By 10:08 2.6K from ATDF at $3.90 and 1K from NITE at $3.84 were added. What really assured a price cap was the 15,245 at $3.80 NITE offered at 13:58 though. All trading was below that, as well as all offer changes I noted, thereafter.
Today was a highvolume day at ~31.19K. For context the 10, 25, 50 and 100day averages, in thousands, are 11.57, 12.02, 11.68 and 9.92. Yesterday they were 8.83, 11.09, 11.08 and 9.65 respectively. In presplit shares this would be 1,559,600 shares traded at a VWAP of $0.0734.
There's 554 missing FINRA shares which likely contain some short sales. I adjusted everything assuming no shorts in there and will update when the final data arrives. Again, an unusual occurrence today was that exempt shares were reported  again 500. Removing these 500 shares drops the reported short volume from 10,016 to 9,516 and the short percentage from 32.11% to 30.51%
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 5.26%, 4.00%, 05.23%, 245.62% and 184.63% respectively. Price spread today was 6.67% vs. 5.26%, 19.71%, 5.14%, 22.77%, 15.68%, 8.75%, 9.00%, 47.89% and 9.17% on prior days.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes.
10:0310:03: 000200 shrs, 00.64% of vol, VWAP $3.8400, 100.0% buys
10:1110:53: 002540 shrs, 08.14% of vol, VWAP $3.7561, 000.0% buys
11:3912:00: 000630 shrs, 02.02% of vol, VWAP $3.8000, 000.0% buys
12:1012:13: 002715 shrs, 08.70% of vol, VWAP $3.7271, 002.8% buys
12:5913:28: 004000 shrs, 12.82% of vol, VWAP $3.6488, 012.5% buys
13:3713:43: 001267 shrs, 04.06% of vol, VWAP $3.7223, 031.6% buys
13:5715:04: 016160 shrs, 51.81% of vol, VWAP $3.6502, 036.6% buys
15:3815:54: 003680 shrs, 11.80% of vol, VWAP $3.6489, 091.3% buys
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary price range.
$3.6000$3.6499: 002067 shrs, 06.63% of vol, VWAP $3.6865, 028.1% buys
$3.6500$3.6600: 023000 shrs, 73.74% of vol, VWAP $3.6503, 041.7% buys
$3.7200$3.7200: 002075 shrs, 06.65% of vol, VWAP $3.7200, 003.6% buys
$3.7500$3.7950: 003220 shrs, 10.32% of vol, VWAP $3.7548, 000.0% buys
$3.8000$3.8400: 000830 shrs, 02.66% of vol, VWAP $3.8096, 024.1% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
09/03 $4.5005 03.85% 21.7%
09/04 $4.4672 00.74% 22.1%
09/05 $4.4133 01.21% 35.9%
09/08 $5.2195 +18.27% 81.9%
09/09 $4.1670 20.16% 41.0%
09/10 $4.1214 01.09% 50.9%
09/11 $4.1345 +00.32% 53.5%
09/12 $4.1653 +00.75% 38.0%
09/15 $3.8236 08.20% 35.8%
09/16 $3.7423 02.13% 17.3%
09/17 $3.8828 +03.75% 58.0%
09/18 $3.8700 00.33% 53.0%
09/19 $3.6676 05.23% 33.5%
Note on the larger trades: the results were skewed by four trades, a couple of which that were really outsized. The first and last listed were sells and the other two were buys. In thousands: 2, 2.073, 5.573 and 10.2.
The larger trades (>= 500) occurred on 11 of the 51 trades, 21.57%. These 24,746 shares were 79.33% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $3.6702. 3 of the larger trades, 27.27%, were buys of 8,146 shares, 32.92% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $3.6500. 8 of the larger trades, 72.73%, were sells of 16,600 shares, 67.08% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $3.6802.
The other 40 trades, 78.43% of the day's trades, traded 6,446 20.67% shares, 81.12% of the days volume. The VWAP was $3.6805. 15 trades, 37.50%, were buys and accounted for 2,309 shares, 35.82% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $3.6601. 21 trades, 52.50%, were sells and accounted for 3,750 shares, 58.18% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $3.6939. 4 trades, 10.00%, were unknowns and accounted for 387 shares, 6.00% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $3.6731.
Here's my newer inflection point calculations. With yesterdays' low volume (presplit 451,250 equivalent), I said "... as seems to be becoming normal for now, I don't yet know if we should give too much weight to any changes". Well, today volume assigns some weight and maybe yesterday I should have given it more weight. Today broke the trend of all periods demonstrating less and less weakening. Al increased weakening.
_5day_ 10day_ _25day_ _50day_ _100day_ _200day_
056.43 0227.37 0595.78 1028.55 01760.79 05268.13
011.38 0147.79 0385.85 0568.52 00644.68 01388.33
064.11 0219.21 0639.96 1274.05 02232.67 07129.92
049.06 0198.39 0611.84 1167.34 02170.75 06879.01
027.52 0164.20 0588.90 1082.89 02013.00 06390.46
023.10 0084.08 0559.43 1031.52 01916.57 05862.53
070.20 0106.71 0677.83 1291.84 02477.44 07870.26
053.25 0116.18 0607.95 1152.94 02216.45 06884.73
038.05 0076.81 0524.61 0993.12 01838.76 05596.68
036.38 0056.52 0469.39 0950.68 01744.33 05348.96
081.95 0108.06 0523.35 1084.21 01999.32 06063.94
"Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection point changes here are omitted from the concentrator.
On my ORIGINAL inflection point calculations, readings for 5, 10, 25, 50, 100 and 200 day periods:
 1day change 
09/10 +31.2% +10.2% +02.3% +04.9% 00.8% 00.1%
09/11 +53.1% +15.3% 00.3% +02.2% +01.7% +00.7%
09/12 +01.5% +49.3% +00.1% 01.0% 02.4% +00.4%
09/15 167.8% +06.5% 01.3% 02.1% 02.4% 00.5%
09/16 04.0% 37.9% +01.3% +00.3% 00.3% +00.5%
09/17 +13.5% +24.0% +02.9% +00.9% +02.5% +00.8%
09/18 +01.9% +26.1% +08.2% +01.4% +02.0% +00.7%
09/19 114.3% 79.5% 03.5% 05.1% 03.9% +01.2%
 5day change 
09/10 +013.7% +091.1% +025.8% +375.9% 004.6% 033.3%
09/11 +009.7% +071.7% 010.5% +010.0% 028.8% +004.3%
09/12 062.8% +052.5% 013.1% 018.8% 077.4% +002.7%
09/15 137.3% 009.0% +012.6% 048.2% 863.5% 079.9%
09/16 +145.1% 034.2% 085.7% +062.0% +024.4% +090.8%
09/17 154.9% +002.4% +013.6% 090.6% +080.3% +079.5%
09/18 449.1% 007.5% +305.5% 188.2% +029.9% 004.0%
09/19 201.5% 124.1% 029.3% 1007.0% 262.1% +040.5%
 5day rate of change 
09/10 003.0% +139.1% +008.0% +024.1% 030.3% 236.3%
09/11 016.8% +892.8% 043.8% 007.5% 170.4% 004.0%
09/12 164.6% 006.1% 169.8% 065.1% 196.1% 073.9%
09/15 130.0% +044.0% +103.8% 129.4% 068.7% 059.2%
09/16 +053.6% 043.1% 4305.8% +307.5% +044.0% +043.9%
09/17 029.2% 042.5% 029.6% 271.2% +039.6% +075.4%
09/18 025.6% 138.3% +063.1% 025.0% +028.9% 027.3%
09/19 +020.9% 1185.4% 016.6% 036.1% +025.8% +076.6%
On my NEWER inflection point calculations, for those same periods:
 1day change 
09/10 +023.47% +009.50% +004.39% +008.38% +002.77% +003.52%
09/11 +042.95% +016.89% +003.62% +007.17% +007.23% +007.09%
09/12 +016.06% +048.79% +005.00% +004.74% +004.79% +008.26%
09/15 172.75% 020.23% 017.33% 020.55% 023.70% 027.10%
09/16 +024.14% 008.87% +010.31% +010.75% +010.53% +012.52%
09/17 +028.55% +033.88% +013.71% +013.86% +017.04% +018.71%
09/18 +004.40% +026.43% +010.53% +004.27% +005.14% +004.43%
09/19 125.28% 091.21% 011.50% 014.05% 014.62% 013.37%
 5day change 
09/10 +042.70% +137.41% +078.75% +057.59% +044.67% +038.99%
09/11 +020.47% +358.45% +094.27% +049.61% +030.94% +033.57%
09/12 064.79% +100.70% +2210.21% +096.60% +054.79% +059.04%
09/15 274.63% 066.99% 775.46% 21585.08% 1054.55% 920.85%
09/16 +124.36% +130.49% +120.76% +125.75% +107.50% +110.89%
09/17 001.01% +016.75% +100.54% +031.62% +250.23% +161.97%
09/18 144.79% 011.82% +024.81% 023.84% 020.20% 019.91%
09/19 810.84% 117.01% 060.73% 107.27% 099.01% 090.70%
 5day rate of change 
09/10 +023.88% +061.02% +072.88% +073.72% +053.01% +050.58%
09/11 009.22% +188.22% +028.03% +084.48% +020.58% +043.16%
09/12 161.27% +099.95% +073.33% +644.01% +090.98% +128.07%
09/15 228.25% 136.61% 2983.88% 1072.74% 4922.52% 2404.65%
09/16 +082.03% +553.72% +137.46% +154.32% +138.32% +146.96%
09/17 058.49% 023.04% 026.54% 028.98% 005.98% 005.83%
09/18 059.41% 063.97% 007.55% 037.84% 029.30% 030.39%
09/19 +011.72% 490.44% 089.38% 103.56% 078.68% 075.00%
Rolling 5day ORIGINAL inflection point calculation aggregate change:
******* ******* *5 Day** *10 Day * * 25Day ** 50 Day **100Day* 200 Day
09/10 5 Day +21.2216 +12.6449 +20.0439 +11.3147 +11.7777 +21.5758
09/11 5 Day +23.5012 +22.0500 +18.1226 +12.6640 +8.5333 +22.7070
09/12 5 Day +8.7423 +33.6160 +15.7509 +10.2832 +1.9256 +23.3182
09/15 5 day 3.2574 +30.5906 +17.7301 +5.3256 14.7021 +4.6798
09/16 5 day +1.46836 +20.1406 +2.5411 +8.6283 11.1163 +8.9271
09/17 5 day 0.80564 +20.6159 +2.8880 +0.8115 2.1847 +16.0222
09/18 5 day 4.42396 +19.0773 +11.7109 0.7155 1.5306 +15.3818
09/19 5 day 13.337 4.5947 +8.2760 7.9204 5.5426 +21.6045
Average change/day, 5 days
____ **5 Day *10 Day *25 Day *50 Day 100 Day 200 Day
09/10 +005.96 +000.31 +004.27 +006.31 +002.34 002.94
09/11 +004.99 +003.52 +002.42 +005.87 001.68 003.02
09/12 003.23 +003.30 001.69 +002.05 004.97 005.25
09/15 007.42 +004.75 +000.06 000.60 008.38 008.35
09/16 003.44 +002.70 002.68 +001.25 004.69 004.69
09/17 004.45 +001.55 003.47 002.14 002.83 001.15
09/18 005.59 000.59 001.28 002.68 002.01 001.47
09/19 004.42 007.64 001.49 003.64 001.49 000.34
Rolling 5day NEWER inflection point calculation aggregate change:
******* ******* *5 Day** *10 Day * * 25Day ** 50 Day **100Day* 200 Day
09/10 5 Day +0077.76 +0014.74 0030.86 0174.19 0499.79 2185.25
09/11 5 Day +0094.68 +0071.40 0001.72 0087.36 0344.58 1451.10
09/12 5 Day +0033.34 +0143.29 +0036.34 0002.97 0155.77 0594.39
09/15 5 day 0057.14 +0047.84 0266.45 0671.48 1712.34 6041.44
09/16 5 day +0013.92 +0110.26 +0055.31 +0172.90 +0128.47 +0658.20
09/17 5 day +0013.78 +0128.73 +0110.92 +0227.58 +0449.95 +1724.27
09/18 5 day 0006.17 +0113.51 +0138.44 +0173.31 +0359.07 +1380.89
09/19 5 day 0056.21 0019.31 +0054.36 0012.61 +0003.54 +0128.42
Average change/day, 5 days
____ **5 Day *10 Day *25 Day *50 Day 100 Day 200 Day
09/10 +0023.09 0010.82 0014.94 0027.65 0140.21 0539.48
09/11 +0021.11 +0009.40 0010.63 0004.27 0111.22 0306.55
09/12 0012.94 +0018.79 0002.84 +0023.21 0010.03 +0086.06
09/15 0044.37 0006.69 0110.43 0222.76 0559.10 1872.21
09/16 0007.97 +0030.34 +0041.36 +0121.02 +0214.25 +0879.14
09/17 0012.64 +0023.35 +0030.38 +0085.95 +0201.44 +0827.86
09/18 0020.15 +0008.41 +0028.09 +0053.43 +0142.42 +0576.26
09/19 0017.79 0032.84 +0002.98 0001.90 +0030.37 +0144.04
Dly Sht % of 'sells' values JIC it turns out to be useful...
============ 2014 ===============
Mon. 06/30 14.06% 35.73% 189.65% 12.10%
Mon. 07/07 49.36% 80.69% 51.65% 0.96% 25.44%
Mon. 07/14 710.00% 96.53% 18.18% 12.08% 148.85%
Mon. 07/21 43.30% 27.77% 115.18% 95.82% 55.57%
Mon. 07/28 32.52% 8.48% 2.38% 0.86% 40.17%
Mon. 08/04 5.34% 38.72% 115.70% 3.27% 62.02%
Mon. 08/11 1.46% 22.26% 0.97% 56.36% 14.46%
Mon. 08/18 27.74% 13.61% 18.18% 13.97% 10.63%
Mon. 08/25 23.02% 5.87% 4.81% 1.43% 20.50%
Tue. 09/02 1,645.83% 12.14% 9.29% 2.84%
Mon. 09/08 135.75% 34.73% 47.14% 40.05% 20.54%
Mon. 09/15 33.71% 20.90% 161.89% 83.01% 49.22%
============ 2014 ===============
Apr Avg: 51.85%, min: 10.59%, max: 153.62%
May Avg: 87.09%, min: 05.48%, max: 558.01%
Jun Avg: 60.10%, min: 00.00%, max: 394.94%
Jul Avg: 82.38%, min: 00.86%, max: 710.00%
Aug Avg: 22.78%, min: 00.11%, max: 115.70%
Sep Avg: 164.41%, min: 02.84%, max: 164.33%
0919 Vol 0031192, Sht 0010016 32.11% LHC 3.6000 3.8400 3.6500 b:s 1:1.95[152]
0918 Vol 0009025, Sht 0003519 38.99% LHC 3.8000 4.0000 3.8500 b:s 1.13:1[151]
0917 Vol 0008976, Sht 0006200 69.07% LHC 3.5000 4.1900 4.1900 b:s 1.38:1[150]
0916 Vol 0006076, Sht 0001050 17.28% LHC 3.7000 3.8900 3.8900 b:s 1:4.78
0915 Vol 0017749, Sht 0003739 21.07% LHC 3.2500 3.9900 3.9900 b:s 1:1.74
0912 Vol 0003556, Sht 0000546 15.35% LHC 3.8900 4.5000 4.2899 b:s 1:1.63[149]
0911 Vol 0005699, Sht 0001062 18.63% LHC 4.0000 4.3500 4.3500 b:s 1.15:1[148]
0910 Vol 0010386, Sht 0002507 23.14% LHC 4.0000 4.3600 4.3600 b:s 1:1.00[147]
0909 Vol 0020617, Sht 0004192 20.33% LHC 3.5500 5.2500 4.2000 b:s 1:1.43
908 Vol 0001221, Sht 0000300 24.57% LHC 4.5000 5.5000 5.0000 b:s 4.52:1[146]
0905 Vol 0192580, Sht 0003500 01.82% LHC 0.0851 0.0929 0.0900 b:s 1:1.78
0904 Vol 0302890, Sht 0021900 07.23% LHC 0.0851 0.0952 0.0900 b:s 1:3.52
0903 Vol 0301000, Sht 0028000 09.30% LHC 0.0851 0.0989 0.0953 b:s 1:3.53
0902 Vol 0114188, Sht 0098750 86.48% LHC 0.0914 0.0990 0.0950 b:s 9.28:1
0829 Vol 0643209, Sht 0094205 14.65% LHC 0.0830 0.0940 0.0940 b:s 1.11:1
0828 Vol 0884399, Sht 0011999 01.36% LHC 0.0851 0.0912 0.0909 b:s 1:18.65
0827 Vol 0496000, Sht 0017000 03.43% LHC 0.0850 0.0900 0.0897 b:s 1:3.53
0826 Vol 0342069, Sht 0015693 04.59% LHC 0.0860 0.0899 0.0888 b:s 1:4.14
0825 Vol 0765535, Sht 0137750 17.99% LHC 0.0861 0.0910 0.0890 b:s 1:3.60
0822 Vol 0729808, Sht 0048701 06.67% LHC 0.0850 0.0920 0.0898 b:s 1:1.55[145]
0821 Vol 0587450, Sht 0057000 09.70% LHC 0.0850 0.0900 0.0896 b:s 1:2.15[144]
0820 Vol 0503951, Sht 0043680 08.67% LHC 0.0830 0.0940 0.0909 b:s 1.04:1
0819 Vol 0262106, Sht 0022328 08.52% LHC 0.0880 0.0942 0.0925 b:s 1:1.69
0818 Vol 1619708, Sht 0249145 15.38% LHC 0.0860 0.0961 0.0942 b:s 1:1.27
0815 Vol 1458550, Sht 0177450 12.17% LHC 0.0900 0.1079 0.0974 b:s 1:5.42
0814 Vol 0402968, Sht 0205700 51.05% LHC 0.0960 0.1050 0.0998 b:s 1:9.60
0813 Vol 0627170, Sht 0005000 00.80% LHC 0.0960 0.1045 0.0966 b:s 1:4.29[143]
0812 Vol 0213943, Sht 0034130 15.95% LHC 0.0900 0.1097 0.1000 b:s 1:2.17[142]
0811 Vol 0498964, Sht 0005617 01.13% LHC 0.0955 0.1069 0.0991 b:s 1:3.34
0808 Vol 0336537, Sht 0156963 46.64% LHC 0.0905 0.0998 0.0960 b:s 1:3.03
0807 Vol 0260112, Sht 0005000 01.92% LHC 0.0960 0.0998 0.0963 b:s 1:1.57
0806 Vol 0120924, Sht 0048450 40.07% LHC 0.0880 0.0954 0.0940 b:s 1.89:1
0805 Vol 0731659, Sht 0157826 21.57% LHC 0.0851 0.1000 0.0892 b:s 1:1.46[141]
0804 Vol 2122199, Sht 0083000 03.91% LHC 0.0851 0.1100 0.0870 b:s 1:2.86
0801 Vol 1072276, Sht 0174305 16.26% LHC 0.0961 0.1099 0.1000 b:s 1.47:1
[141] There's 10K fewer shares reported on the FINRA data than I have from ETrade Time and Sales panel and ADVFN Trades screen. I doublechecked both ADVFN and ETrade Pro time and sales and can not identify the extra 10K. My assumption is it must have been a cancelled trade, incorrect reported trade size, or an erroneously doublereported trade. I've adjusted for this by subtracting 5K from both the buys and sells and removed 10K from the total volume.
[142] There was one AH trade for 10K shares that FINRAreported daily short sales don't include. Adding that to the FINRA trade volume raises it from 213,943 to 223,943 and would lower the short percentage from 15.95% to 15.24%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves from 34,130 to 44,130 and the short percentage would be 19.71%.
[143] There was one AH trade for 10K shares that FINRAreported daily short sales don't include. Adding that to the FINRA trade volume raises it from 627,170 to 637,170 and would lower the short percentage from 00.80% to 00.78%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves from 5,000 to 15,000 and the short percentage would be 2.35%.
[144] There were two AH trades for 10K shares that FINRAreported daily short sales don't include. Adding that to the FINRA trade volume raises it from 587,450 to 597,450 and would lower the short percentage from 09.70% to 09.54%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves from 57,000 to 67,000 and the short percentage would be 11.21%.
[145] There was one premarket trade for 24.5K shares that FINRAreported daily short sales don't include. Adding that to the FINRA trade volume raises it from 729,808 to 754,308 and would lower the short percentage from 06.67% to 06.46%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves from 48,701 to 73,201 and the short percentage would be 09.70%.
[146] A 50:1 reverse split was done effective with start of trading 9/8/2014. Many folks were not able to trade that day so both trade and short volume shouldn't be taken too seriously ... yet.
[147] FINRA's EOD REG SHO process still doesn't pick up odd lot trades. Today they were 955 shares, 8.81% of actual volume. There's likely a few (~20%?) short sales in those shares. When correct data came in short volume was 2507 and percentage became 23.14%. Short % of additional shares was appx. 20%.
[148] FINRA's EOD REG SHO process still doesn't pick up odd lot trades. Today they were missing 713 shares, 12.51% of actual volume. There's again likely a few (~20%?) short sales in those shares. When correct data appeared I updated appropriate places. The additional shorts were 4.35% of the missing volume.
[149] FINRA's EOD REG SHO still omits odd lot trades. Today they were missing 729 shares, 17.01% of actual volume. There's again likely a few (~20%?) short sales in those shares. When correct data appears I will update appropriate places.
[150] The missing FINRA 197 shares which appeared on the final update contained 92 shorts, 46.7% of the unreported shares. This moved the calculated percentage from 68.05% to 69.07% when short count moved from 6,108 to 6,200. An unusual occurrence today was that exempt shares were reported  500. Removing these 500 shares drops the reported short volume from 6,200 to 5,500 and the short percentage from 69.075% to 63.5%
[151] FINRA is missing 232 shares which will appear on the final update in the morning. I've added these in and assumed no shorts in there although there's likely to be some small number. When final data appeared there were no additional short sales, so no adjustments were needed.
[152] There's 554 missing FINRA shares which likely contain some short sales. I adjusted everything assuming no shorts in there and will update when the final data arrives. Again, an unusual occurrence today was that exempt shares were reported  again 500. Removing these 500 shares drops the reported short volume from 10,016 to 9,516 and the short percentage from 32.11% to 30.51%
09/18/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 32, MinTrSz: 1, MaxTrSz: 1100, Vol: 9025, AvTrSz: 282
Min. Pr: 3.8000, Max Pr: 4.0000, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 3.8700
# Buys, Shares: 14 4786, VW Avg Buy Pr: 3.8557
# Sells, Shares: 18 4239, VW Avg Sell Pr: 3.8862
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1.13:1 (53.03% "buys"), DlyShts 3519 (38.99%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 83.01%
With price essentially flat all day the EOD paint couldn't do much to help. Check the breakdown by time  only 7.4% of days volume traded in the last fifteen minutes and it was down a penny from the last trade in the prior period at 15:30 of $3.86.
It was a bifurcated trading day  through 13:24:03 we had 100% sells with a VWAP of $3.9000 and from then to the close we had 88.86% buys with a VWAP of $3.8557.
Today was again a relatively good volume day with ~8.8K traded. For context the 10, 25, 50 and 100day averages, in thousands, are 8.83, 11.09, 11.08 and 9.65 respectively. I say "relatively" because for action subsequent to the split 10 days ago the volume is hanging in there. Looking at the longer periods though, it can be seen that volume is down substantially. In those longer terms volume is low.
FINRA is missing 232 shares which will appear on the final update in the morning. I've added these in and assumed no shorts in there although there's likely to be some small number. When final data appeared there were no additional short sales, so no adjustments were needed.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 8.57%, 4.53%, 00.33%, 0.55% and 43.24% respectively. Price spread today was 5.26% vs. 19.71%, 5.14%, 22.77%, 15.68%, 8.75%, 9.00%, 47.89%, 9.17% and 11.87% on prior days.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes.
09:3009:47: 000420 shrs, 04.65% of vol, VWAP $3.8500, 000.0% buys
09:5111:59: 001038 shrs, 11.50% of vol, VWAP $3.9701, 000.0% buys
12:2312:25: 001181 shrs, 13.09% of vol, VWAP $3.8900, 000.0% buys
12:3515:30: 005718 shrs, 63.36% of vol, VWAP $3.8565, 082.0% buys
15:4615:47: 000568 shrs, 06.29% of vol, VWAP $3.8000, 000.0% buys
15:5815:58: 000100 shrs, 01.11% of vol, VWAP $3.8500, 100.0% buys
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary price range.
$3.8000$3.8400: 001448 shrs, 16.04% of vol, VWAP $3.8243, 060.8% buys
$3.8500$3.8900: 006539 shrs, 72.45% of vol, VWAP $3.8642, 059.7% buys
$3.9000$3.9000: 000002 shrs, 00.02% of vol, VWAP $3.9000, 000.0% buys
$3.9500$3.9500: 000616 shrs, 06.83% of vol, VWAP $3.9500, 000.0% buys
$4.0000$4.0000: 000420 shrs, 04.65% of vol, VWAP $4.0000, 000.0% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
09/02 $4.6808 +05.92% 68.9%
09/03 $4.5005 03.85% 21.7%
09/04 $4.4672 00.74% 22.1%
09/05 $4.4133 01.21% 35.9%
09/08 $5.2195 +18.27% 81.9%
09/09 $4.1670 20.16% 41.0%
09/10 $4.1214 01.09% 50.9%
09/11 $4.1345 +00.32% 53.5%
09/12 $4.1653 +00.75% 38.0%
09/15 $3.8236 08.20% 35.8%
09/16 $3.7423 02.13% 17.3%
09/17 $3.8828 +03.75% 58.0%
09/18 $3.8700 00.33% 53.0%
The larger trades (>= 500) occurred on 7 of the 32 trades, 21.88%. These 4,983 shares were 55.21% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $3.8611. 4 of the larger trades, 57.14%, were buys of 3,209 shares, 64.40% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $3.8553. 3 of the larger trades, 42.86%, were sells of 1,774 shares, 35.60% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $3.8716.
The other 25 trades, 78.13% of the day's trades, traded 4,042 shares, 81.12% of the days volume. The VWAP was $3.8810. 10 trades, 40.00%, were buys and accounted for 1,051 shares, 21.49% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $3.8564. 15 trades, 60.00%, were sells and accounted for 2,465 shares, 60.98% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $3.8967.
Here's my newer inflection point calculations. With low volume (presplit 451,250 equivalent), as seems to be becoming normal for now, I don't yet know if we should give too much weight to any changes.
_5day_ 10day_ _25day_ _50day_ _100day_ _200day_
122.20 0235.59 0587.18 0995.53 01668.42 04939.36
056.43 0227.37 0595.78 1028.55 01760.79 05268.13
011.38 0147.79 0385.85 0568.52 00644.68 01388.33
064.11 0219.21 0639.96 1274.05 02232.67 07129.92
049.06 0198.39 0611.84 1167.34 02170.75 06879.01
027.52 0164.20 0588.90 1082.89 02013.00 06390.46
023.10 0084.08 0559.43 1031.52 01916.57 05862.53
070.20 0106.71 0677.83 1291.84 02477.44 07870.26
053.25 0116.18 0607.95 1152.94 02216.45 06884.73
038.05 0076.81 0524.61 0993.12 01838.76 05596.68
036.38 0056.52 0469.39 0950.68 01744.33 05348.96
"Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection point changes here are in the latest daily post above.
09/17/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 40, MinTrSz: 1, MaxTrSz: 1200, Vol: 8976, AvTrSz: 224
Min. Pr: 3.5000, Max Pr: 4.1900, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 3.8828
# Buys, Shares: 18 5203, VW Avg Buy Pr: 3.9303
# Sells, Shares: 22 3773, VW Avg Sell Pr: 3.8172
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1.38:1 (57.97% "buys"), DlyShts 6200 (69.07%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 164.33%
The cavalry arrived in force to help the usual EOD paint crew. Check the breakdown by time  ~43% of days volume traded in the last twelve minutes at VWAPs substantially higher than that seen the rest of the day.
Today was a relatively good volume day  equivalent to 448.8K presplit. The buy percentage jumped 235.11% to 58% and was directionally tracked by a short percentage that jumped 299.70% to 69.07% (after FINRA's final report in the A.M.).
FINRA is missing 197 shares which will appear on the final update in the morning. I've added these in and assumed no shorts in there. When the final data was available there were 92 more. An unusual occurrence today was that exempt shares were reported  500. Removing these 500 shares drops the reported short volume from 6,108 to 5,608 and the short percentage from 68.05% to 62.48%.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 5.41%,7.71%, 03.75%, 47.73% and 490.48% respectively. Price spread today was 19.71% vs. 5.14%, 22.77%, 15.68%, 8.75%, 9.00%, 47.89%, 9.17%, 11.87% and 16.22% on prior days.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes.
09:3009:58: 001588 shrs, 17.69% of vol, VWAP $3.7330, 068.5% buys
10:1012:22: 001570 shrs, 17.49% of vol, VWAP $3.8678, 073.1% buys
13:1413:29: 001950 shrs, 21.72% of vol, VWAP $3.8231, 000.0% buys
15:4915:54: 003173 shrs, 35.35% of vol, VWAP $3.9701, 080.7% buys
15:5515:58: 000695 shrs, 07.74% of vol, VWAP $4.0273, 058.4% buys
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary price range.
$3.5000$3.5000: 000380 shrs, 04.23% of vol, VWAP $3.5000, 000.0% buys
$3.7500$3.8500: 004440 shrs, 49.47% of vol, VWAP $3.8242, 043.9% buys
$3.9000$4.0000: 004056 shrs, 45.19% of vol, VWAP $3.9752, 077.8% buys
$4.1900$4.1900: 000100 shrs, 01.11% of vol, VWAP $4.1900, 100.0% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
08/29 $4.4190 02.61% 27.0%
09/02 $4.6808 +05.92% 68.9%
09/03 $4.5005 03.85% 21.7%
09/04 $4.4672 00.74% 22.1%
09/05 $4.4133 01.21% 35.9%
09/08 $5.2195 +18.27% 81.9%
09/09 $4.1670 20.16% 41.0%
09/10 $4.1214 01.09% 50.9%
09/11 $4.1345 +00.32% 53.5%
09/12 $4.1653 +00.75% 38.0%
09/15 $3.8236 08.20% 35.8%
09/16 $3.7423 02.13% 17.3%
09/17 $3.8828 +03.75% 58.0%
The larger trades (>= 500) occurred on 5 of the 40 trades, 12.50%. These 3,932 shares were 43.81% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $3.8864.
The other 42 trades, 95.45% of the day's trades, traded 4,891 shares, 80.50% of the days volume. The VWAP was $3.7487. 12 trades, 28.57%, were buys and accounted for 1,051 shares, 21.49% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $3.8169. 30 trades, 71.43%, were sells and accounted for 3,840 shares, 78.51% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $3.7301.
Here's my newer inflection point calculations. With such low volume, as seems to be becoming normal for now, don't give too much weight to any changes.
_5day_ 10day_ _25day_ _50day_ _100day_ _200day_
126.82 0213.13 0580.97 0993.15 01670.96 04693.76
122.20 0235.59 0587.18 0995.53 01668.42 04939.36
056.43 0227.37 0595.78 1028.55 01760.79 05268.13
011.38 0147.79 0385.85 0568.52 00644.68 01388.33
064.11 0219.21 0639.96 1274.05 02232.67 07129.92
049.06 0198.39 0611.84 1167.34 02170.75 06879.01
027.52 0164.20 0588.90 1082.89 02013.00 06390.46
023.10 0084.08 0559.43 1031.52 01916.57 05862.53
070.20 0106.71 0677.83 1291.84 02477.44 07870.26
053.25 0116.18 0607.95 1152.94 02216.45 06884.73
038.05 0076.81 0524.61 0993.12 01838.76 05596.68
"Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection point changes here are in the latest daily post above.
09/16/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 44, MinTrSz: 2, MaxTrSz: 665, Vol: 6076, AvTrSz: 138
Min. Pr: 3.7000, Max Pr: 3.8900, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 3.7423
# Buys, Shares: 12 1051, VW Avg Buy Pr: 3.8169
# Sells, Shares: 32 5025, VW Avg Sell Pr: 3.7267
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:4.78 (17.30% "buys"), DlyShts 1050 (17.28%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 20.90%
The usual EOD paint consisted of two oddlot trades, 65 and 35 shares, in the same second, 15:45:38, that were probably a 100 share order that hit the offer.
Today was a relatively lowvolume day. The buy percentage weakened about 50% to 17.3% and was directionally tracked by a short percentage that dropped a small amount. One day doesn't really tell us much so I make no judgment about the directional correlation trend being back yet.
With volume down in the lower area of what I'm guessing to be a "new normal" I continue to think some weight might be assigned to the selling trend. From 8/27 onward the selling was 71.44%, 5.3%, 76.6%, 77.9%, 63.9%, 18.1% (first day of split trading), 58.5%, 49.1%, 46.53%, 62.03%, 62.49% and 82.7% today.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 13.85%, 2.51%, 02.13%, 65.77% and 71.92% respectively. Price spread today was 5.14% vs. 22.77%, 15.68%, 8.75%, 9.00%, 47.89%, 9.17%, 11.87%, 16.22% and 8.32% on prior days.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes.
09:3509:49: 001547 shrs, 25.46% of vol, VWAP $3.7061, 000.0% buys
10:0910:44: 000785 shrs, 12.92% of vol, VWAP $3.7455, 036.3% buys
10:5211:10: 000560 shrs, 09.22% of vol, VWAP $3.7450, 035.7% buys
11:1712:22: 000770 shrs, 12.67% of vol, VWAP $3.8097, 039.0% buys
12:4515:01: 001672 shrs, 27.52% of vol, VWAP $3.7197, 000.0% buys
15:1415:34: 000482 shrs, 07.93% of vol, VWAP $3.7873, 034.4% buys
15:4515:45: 000260 shrs, 04.28% of vol, VWAP $3.8038, 038.5% buys
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary price range.
$3.7000$3.7500: 004791 shrs, 78.85% of vol, VWAP $3.7206, 003.1% buys
$3.7740$3.7900: 000535 shrs, 08.81% of vol, VWAP $3.7896, 081.3% buys
$3.8000$3.8500: 000550 shrs, 09.05% of vol, VWAP $3.8318, 048.4% buys
$3.8900$0.0000: 000200 shrs, 03.29% of vol, VWAP $3.8900, 100.0% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
08/28 $4.5376 +03.36% 05.1%
08/29 $4.4190 02.61% 27.0%
09/02 $4.6808 +05.92% 68.9%
09/03 $4.5005 03.85% 21.7%
09/04 $4.4672 00.74% 22.1%
09/05 $4.4133 01.21% 35.9%
09/08 $5.2195 +18.27% 81.9%
09/09 $4.1670 20.16% 41.0%
09/10 $4.1214 01.09% 50.9%
09/11 $4.1345 +00.32% 53.5%
09/12 $4.1653 +00.75% 38.0%
09/15 $3.8236 08.20% 35.8%
09/16 $3.7423 02.13% 17.3%
The larger trades (>= 500) occurred on 2 of the 44 trades, 4.55%. These 1,185 shares were 19.50% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $3.7156. All were sells.
The other 42 trades, 95.45% of the day's trades, traded 4,891 shares, 80.50% of the days volume. The VWAP was $3.7487. 12 trades, 28.57%, were buys and accounted for 1,051 shares, 21.49% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $3.8169. 30 trades, 71.43%, were sells and accounted for 3,840 shares, 78.51% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $3.7301.
Here's my newer inflection point calculations. With such low volume, as seems to be becoming normal for now, don't give too much weight to any changes..
_5day_ 10day_ _25day_ _50day_ _100day_ _200day_
118.60 0179.80 0494.70 0863.34 01329.35 03548.15
126.82 0213.13 0580.97 0993.15 01670.96 04693.76
122.20 0235.59 0587.18 0995.53 01668.42 04939.36
056.43 0227.37 0595.78 1028.55 01760.79 05268.13
011.38 0147.79 0385.85 0568.52 00644.68 01388.33
064.11 0219.21 0639.96 1274.05 02232.67 07129.92
049.06 0198.39 0611.84 1167.34 02170.75 06879.01
027.52 0164.20 0588.90 1082.89 02013.00 06390.46
023.10 0084.08 0559.43 1031.52 01916.57 05862.53
070.20 0106.71 0677.83 1291.84 02477.44 07870.26
053.25 0116.18 0607.95 1152.94 02216.45 06884.73
"Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection point changes here are in the latest daily post above.
09/15/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 59, MinTrSz: 2, MaxTrSz: 1000, Vol: 17749, AvTrSz: 301
Min. Pr: 3.2500, Max Pr: 3.9900, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 3.8236
# Buys, Shares: 28 6367, VW Avg Buy Pr: 3.9148
# Sells, Shares: 30 11092, VW Avg Sell Pr: 3.7771
# Unkn, Shares: 1 290, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 3.6000
Buy:Sell 1:1.74 (35.87% "buys"), DlyShts 3739 (21.07%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 33.71%
I'm still waiting to see if the buy and short sales percentage directional correlation will stabilize again. Today was a "relatively" highvolume day but the buy percentage was not "strong", so I wouldn't hazard a guess about these percentages making a strong correlation again yet.
Regarding a break of the trend of weakening in the first and last weeks of the month, today may be the start of return to trend  hard to say based on one day though. VWAP dropped 08.20%. With volume up into reasonable range today, I think some weight might be assigned. Regardless, from 8/26 onward the selling was 94.9%, 71.44%, 5.3%, 76.6%, 77.9%, 63.9%, 18.1% (first day of split trading), 58.5%, 49.1%, 46.53%, 62.03% and 62.49% today.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 16.45%, 11.33%, 08.20%, 314.21% and 517.00% respectively. Price spread today was 22.77% vs. 15.68%, 8.75%, 9.00%, 47.89%, 9.17%, 11.87%, 16.22%, 8.32% and 13.25% on prior days.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes.
09:3009:46: 002442 shrs, 13.76% of vol, VWAP $3.6372, 018.1% buys
10:1911:16: 001951 shrs, 10.99% of vol, VWAP $3.9434, 060.9% buys
11:2211:46: 001579 shrs, 08.90% of vol, VWAP $3.9053, 005.0% buys
11:4812:44: 004316 shrs, 24.32% of vol, VWAP $3.8277, 045.2% buys
13:0914:10: 003398 shrs, 19.14% of vol, VWAP $3.7866, 041.2% buys
14:4515:26: 001710 shrs, 09.63% of vol, VWAP $3.7920, 013.0% buys
15:3415:58: 002353 shrs, 13.26% of vol, VWAP $2.2923, 046.1% buys
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary price range.
$3.2500$3.3100: 000880 shrs, 04.96% of vol, VWAP $3.2549, 000.0% buys
$3.6000$3.7700: 004103 shrs, 23.12% of vol, VWAP $3.7084, 004.7% buys
$3.8000$3.9900: 012766 shrs, 71.93% of vol, VWAP $3.5976, 048.4% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
08/27 $4.3899 +00.10% 20.2%
08/28 $4.5376 +03.36% 05.1%
08/29 $4.4190 02.61% 27.0%
09/02 $4.6808 +05.92% 68.9%
09/03 $4.5005 03.85% 21.7%
09/04 $4.4672 00.74% 22.1%
09/05 $4.4133 01.21% 35.9%
09/08 $5.2195 +18.27% 81.9%
09/09 $4.1670 20.16% 41.0%
09/10 $4.1214 01.09% 50.9%
09/11 $4.1345 +00.32% 53.5%
09/12 $4.1653 +00.75% 38.0%
09/15 $3.8236 08.20% 35.8%
The larger trades (>= 500) occurred on 10 of the 59 trades, 16.95%. These 8,420 shares were 47.44% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $3.4326. 2 of the larger trades, 20.00%, were buys of 1,520 shares, 18.05% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $3.9300. 8 of the larger trades, 80.00%, were sells of 6,900 shares, 81.95% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $4.0701.
The other 49 trades, 83.05% of the day's trades, traded 8,848 shares, 49.85% of the days volume. The VWAP was $3.76. 26 trades, 53.06%, were buys and accounted for 4,847 shares, 54.78% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $3.7714. 21 trades, 42.86%, were sells and accounted for 3,711 shares, 41.94% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $3.7496. 1 trade, 2.04%, was an unknown and accounted for 290 shares, 3.28% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $3.6000.
Here's my newer inflection point calculations. This is the first day of using my restructured spread sheets. On the old sheets some errors had crept in over time. This may make some of the numbers appear a little out of whack, but they will settle back in quickly.
_5day_ 10day_ _25day_ _50day_ _100day_ _200day_
174.72 0229.02 0677.36 1032.04 01772.54 04889.32
118.60 0179.80 0494.70 0863.34 01329.35 03548.15
126.82 0213.13 0580.97 0993.15 01670.96 04693.76
122.20 0235.59 0587.18 0995.53 01668.42 04939.36
056.43 0227.37 0595.78 1028.55 01760.79 05268.13
011.38 0147.79 0385.85 0568.52 00644.68 01388.33
064.11 0219.21 0639.96 1274.05 02232.67 07129.92
049.06 0198.39 0611.84 1167.34 02170.75 06879.01
027.52 0164.20 0588.90 1082.89 02013.00 06390.46
023.10 0084.08 0559.43 1031.52 01916.57 05862.53
070.20 0106.71 0677.83 1291.84 02477.44 07870.26
"Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection point changes here are in the latest daily post above.
09/12/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 35, MinTrSz: 1, MaxTrSz: 500, Vol: 4285, AvTrSz: 122
Min. Pr: 3.8900, Max Pr: 4.5000, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 4.1653
# Buys, Shares: 14 1627, VW Avg Buy Pr: 4.2325
# Sells, Shares: 21 2658, VW Avg Sell Pr: 4.1242
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:1.63 (37.97% "buys"), DlyShts 606 (14.14%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 22.8%
Absolutely nothing should be given any weight with these volumes and the known EOD tape painting continuing without cessation! It may look good on the charts and in the portfolios for now but it will bite some folks at some point in time.
FINRA's EOD REG SHO still omits odd lot trades. Today they were missing 729 shares, 17.01% of actual volume. There's again likely a few (~20%?) short sales in those shares. When corrected data appeared I will update appropriate places.
Today is the equivalent of 214,250 presplit shares traded. For some perspective in postsplit terms, here's the 10, 25, 50 and 100day average volumes, in thousands: 7.37, 10.78, 10.74 and 9.50. Yesterday they were 8.71, 10.81, 10.68 and 9.65 respectively.
I've been saying it's still too soon after the reverse split to tell if the directional correlation of buy and daily short percentage are back to normal. I still feel that way, especially as long as volume is in the crapper. Today they correlated again, the third day out of six. More waiting required! But we're used to that aren't we?
Regarding a break of the trend of weakening in the first and last weeks of the month, today continued that break. But I again question how much weight to give it with this volume. Regardless, from 8/25 onward the selling was 71.3%, 94.9%, 71.44%, 5.3%, 76.6%, 77.9%, 63.9%, 18.1% (first day of split trading), 58.5%, 49.1%, 46.53% and 62.03% today.
Again today's volume does not warrant much more commentary. Just the numbers, mostly, for the rest of today's post.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 2.75%, 3.45%, 00.75%, 24.81% and 48.59% respectively. Price spread today was 15.68% vs. 8.75%, 9.00%, 47.89%, 9.17%, 11.87%, 16.22%, 8.32%, 13.25% and 7.17% on prior days.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes. The first period is just the two trades, 40 and 110 shares, that set the day's high by hitting the ask. The 9:52 is the single trade that set the day's low. Odd lot trades were scattered throughout the day  729 shares of 4285, 17.01% of the day's volume. Note the nice rise in the last period.
09:3009:30: 000150 shrs, 03.50% of vol, VWAP $4.5000, 026.7% buys
09:3009:41: 000293 shrs, 06.84% of vol, VWAP $4.1401, 034.1% buys
09:5209:52: 000250 shrs, 05.83% of vol, VWAP $3.8900, 000.0% buys
10:0011:05: 000701 shrs, 16.36% of vol, VWAP $4.0535, 049.9% buys
11:5513:36: 001085 shrs, 25.32% of vol, VWAP $4.0952, 000.0% buys
13:3715:19: 000400 shrs, 09.33% of vol, VWAP $4.1603, 077.8% buys
15:3615:59: 001406 shrs, 32.81% of vol, VWAP $4.2951, 058.7% buys
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary price range. The low was set by a single trade. The high was two trades of 40 and 110 shares.
$3.8900$3.8900: 000250 shrs, 05.83% of vol, VWAP $3.8900, 000.0% buys
$4.0000$4.0200: 001012 shrs, 23.62% of vol, VWAP $4.0076, 024.7% buys
$4.1000$4.1600: 000856 shrs, 19.98% of vol, VWAP $4.1179, 000.0% buys
$4.2000$4.2900: 001197 shrs, 27.93% of vol, VWAP $4.2525, 091.6% buys
$4.3000$4.3400: 000820 shrs, 19.14% of vol, VWAP $4.3049, 029.3% buys
$4.5000$4.5000: 000150 shrs, 03.50% of vol, VWAP $4.5000, 026.7% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
08/26 $4.3854 +00.34% 18.9%
08/27 $4.3899 +00.10% 20.2%
08/28 $4.5376 +03.36% 05.1%
08/29 $4.4190 02.61% 27.0%
09/02 $4.6808 +05.92% 68.9%
09/03 $4.5005 03.85% 21.7%
09/04 $4.4672 00.74% 22.1%
09/05 $4.4133 01.21% 35.9%
09/08 $5.2195 +18.27% 81.9%
09/09 $4.1670 20.16% 41.0%
09/10 $4.1214 01.09% 50.9%
09/11 $4.1345 +00.32% 53.5%
09/12 $4.1653 +00.75% 38.0%
There wasn't enough volume or even larger trades to justify breaking down larger and smaller trades today.
Here's my newer inflection point calculations. We continued for the third consecutive day with all six periods showing reducing weakness. But the volume is even weaker (in thousands: 10.84, 5.70 and 4.29) and absolutely nothing should be given any weight with these volumes and the known EOD tape painting.
_5day_ 10day_ _25day_ _50day_ _100day_ _200day_
154.46 0276.71 0646.30 0909.54 01655.17 04243.42
174.72 0229.02 0677.36 1032.04 01772.54 04889.32
118.60 0179.80 0494.70 0863.34 01329.35 03548.15
126.82 0213.13 0580.97 0993.15 01670.96 04693.76
122.20 0235.59 0587.18 0995.53 01668.42 04939.36
056.43 0227.37 0595.78 1028.55 01760.79 05268.13
011.38 0147.79 0385.85 0568.52 00644.68 01388.33
064.11 0219.21 0639.96 1274.05 02232.67 07129.92
049.06 0198.39 0611.84 1167.34 02170.75 06879.01
027.52 0164.20 0588.90 1082.89 02013.00 06390.46
023.10 0084.08 0559.43 1031.52 01916.57 05862.53
"Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection point changes here are in the latest daily post above.
09/11/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 43, MinTrSz: 2, MaxTrSz: 715, Vol: 5699, AvTrSz: 133
Min. Pr: 4.0000, Max Pr: 4.3500, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 4.1345
# Buys, Shares: 21 3047, VW Avg Buy Pr: 4.2117
# Sells, Shares: 22 2652, VW Avg Sell Pr: 4.0457
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1.15:1 (53.47% "buys"), DlyShts 1062 (18.63%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 38.88%
FINRA's EOD REG SHO process still doesn't pick up odd lot trades. Today they were missing 713 shares, 12.51% of actual volume. There's again likely a few (~20%?) short sales in those shares. When correct data appeared I updated appropriate places. The additional shorts were 4.35% of the missing volume.
Yesterday was a mediumvolume day, using the reversesplit adjusted volume equivalent of 541,800 shares traded and it was lower volume, down from the prior day's equivalent adjusted 1,030,850. Today is the equivalent of 284,950  not the lowest ever but low. For some perspective in postsplit terms, here's the 10, 25, 50 and 100day average volumes, in thousands: 8.71, 10.81, 10.68 and 9.65 respectively.
I've been saying it's still too soon after the reverse split to tell if the directional correlation of buy and daily short percentage are back to normal. I still feel that way, especially as long as volume is in the crapper.
Yesterday I mentioned we might have seen a break out of the trend of weakening in the first and last weeks of the month but it really was too soon to determine that. Today continued that break, but how much weight to give it with this volume is problematic. Regardless, from 8/22 onward the selling was 78.20%, 71.3%, 94.9%, 71.44%, 5.3%, 76.6%, 77.9%, 63.9%, 18.1% (first day of split trading), 58.5%, 49.1% and 46.53% today.
With today's volume there's not much more commentary I think is justified. Just the numbers, mostly, for the rest of today's post.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 0.00%, 0.23%, 00.32%, 47.41% and 57.64% respectively. Price spread today was 8.75% vs. 9.00%, 47.89%, 9.17%, 11.87%, 16.22%, 8.32%, 13.25%, 7.17% and 5.88% on prior days.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes. The first period was one 200 share trade and the rest odd lots. Odd lot trades were scattered throughout the day  713 shares, 12.51% of the day's volume. Note the nice rise in the last three periods as the paint crew got busy. See the thread 23808 started and my reply starting here.
09:3009:30: 000252 shrs, 04.42% of vol, VWAP $4.0183, 005.6% buys
10:0711:59: 001206 shrs, 21.16% of vol, VWAP $4.1261, 048.7% buys
12:0013:52: 001635 shrs, 28.69% of vol, VWAP $4.0263, 000.0% buys
15:0515:41: 000934 shrs, 16.39% of vol, VWAP $4.1282, 088.2% buys
15:4215:57: 000872 shrs, 15.30% of vol, VWAP $4.2258, 094.3% buys
15:5815:59: 000800 shrs, 14.04% of vol, VWAP $4.3125, 100.0% buys
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary price range.
$4.0000$4.0501: 002118 shrs, 37.16% of vol, VWAP $4.0235, 000.0% buys
$4.1000$4.1999: 002076 shrs, 36.43% of vol, VWAP $4.1421, 074.3% buys
$4.2000$4.2500: 000705 shrs, 12.37% of vol, VWAP $4.2433, 100.0% buys
$4.3000$4.3500: 000800 shrs, 14.04% of vol, VWAP $4.3125, 100.0% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
08/25 $4.3704 00.11% 21.7%
08/26 $4.3854 +00.34% 18.9%
08/27 $4.3899 +00.10% 20.2%
08/28 $4.5376 +03.36% 05.1%
08/29 $4.4190 02.61% 27.0%
09/02 $4.6808 +05.92% 68.9%
09/03 $4.5005 03.85% 21.7%
09/04 $4.4672 00.74% 22.1%
09/05 $4.4133 01.21% 35.9%
09/08 $5.2195 +18.27% 81.9%
09/09 $4.1670 20.16% 41.0%
09/10 $4.1214 01.09% 50.9%
09/11 $4.1345 +00.32% 53.5%
There wasn't enough volume to justify breaking down larger and smaller trades today.
Here's my newer inflection point calculations. We continued for the second consecutive day with all six periods showing reducing weakness. But it is on low volume, equivalent to only 284,950 shares presplit and so may still be just "noise" as the market adjusts to the new regime.
_5day_ 10day_ _25day_ _50day_ _100day_ _200day_
111.30 0260.00 0638.62 0929.50 01879.95 05021.03
154.46 0276.71 0646.30 0909.54 01655.17 04243.42
174.72 0229.02 0677.36 1032.04 01772.54 04889.32
118.60 0179.80 0494.70 0863.34 01329.35 03548.15
126.82 0213.13 0580.97 0993.15 01670.96 04693.76
122.20 0235.59 0587.18 0995.53 01668.42 04939.36
056.43 0227.37 0595.78 1028.55 01760.79 05268.13
011.38 0147.79 0385.85 0568.52 00644.68 01388.33
064.11 0219.21 0639.96 1274.05 02232.67 07129.92
049.06 0198.39 0611.84 1167.34 02170.75 06879.01
027.52 0164.20 0588.90 1082.89 02013.00 06390.46
"Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection point changes here are in the latest daily post above.
09/10/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 60, MinTrSz: 4, MaxTrSz: 1000, Vol: 10836, AvTrSz: 181
Min. Pr: 4.0000, Max Pr: 4.3600, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 4.1214
# Buys, Shares: 24 5518, VW Avg Buy Pr: 4.1936
# Sells, Shares: 36 5318, VW Avg Sell Pr: 4.0466
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1.04:1 (50.92% "buys"), DlyShts 2319 (21.40%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 43.61%
Our friendly paint crew did the usual today. I hope no innocents get too badly burned by this ongoing apparent attempt at deception. I have hope because the VWAP tells the true story on an ongoing basis. Hopefully buy:sell and my experimental inflection point calculations are helping them avoid the potential damage.
Although it's early in the adjustment to the new regime, some things appear to be holding from the presplit era. The middle weeks of the month began and continue to weaken after the last and first weeks of the month showed a "flat to mildly higher" price behavior. The directional relationship between buy percentage and daily short sales percentage seems to be coming back. Still too early to determine that though.
ATDF and NITE have picked up the gauntlet right where they left off presplit. We saw some larger bids: 1K from ATDF, CSTI and NITE today. The highest of these, from CSTI was the presplit equivalent of $0.0814. We also saw larger offers: 1.1K & 2K from ETRF, 1K & 2K from CDEL, and 800 from ARCA. They all began optimistically at the equivalent of $0.0840. By the end of the day ETRF dropped to an equivalent of $0.083.
FINRA's EOD REG SHO process still doesn't pick up odd lot trades. Today they were 955 shares, 8.81% of actual volume. There's likely a few (~20%?) short sales in those shares. I'll update [only in the blog] appropriately when final data arrives (the following morning sometime before market open). BTW, yesterday was similar, but with a smaller percentage of odd lot volume  867 shares (4.21%). When the corrected FINRA file came in the next morning the short volume moved from 3,939 to 4,192 and calculated percentage moved from 19.11% to 20.33%.
This odd lot issue will be a problem for a long time. Another effect is that FINRA prohibits odd lots from being used as the closing price (must be a good reason, but I'll never know it). Also, if the day's low is set by an odd lot, as it was today, your service may not report that low price, but only a regular lotsize price.
E.g. During trading today Power ETrade Pro market depth reported the low of $4.01 even though it shows the oddlot trade price of $4.00 in the trades displayed and includes the odd lot volume in its running total. :\ Being an exprogrammer ...
Today was a mediumvolume day, using the reversesplit adjusted volume equivalent of 541,800 shares traded. This is lower volume, down from yesterday's equivalent adjusted 1,030,850. In a few more days I'll stop detailing these equivalent volumes.
It's still too soon after the reverse split to tell if the directional correlation of buy and daily short percentage are back to normal, but it was looking possible yesterday with both lower. Today both the short percentage and buy percentage rose, so it's looking more likely now. I mentioned the choppy nature of the moves we should expect in the short percentage if it is doing a "leg up". That's looking like the case ATM but we'll have to continue to wait and see.
Yesterday I iterated that selling continues to dominate but it's really too soon to ascertain if this will hold in the new price regime. Today might be seen as a break out of the trend but it really is too soon to determine that. From 8/21 onward the selling was 78.17%, 78.20%, 71.3%, 94.9%, 71.44%, 5.3%, 76.6%, 77.9%, 63.9%, 18.1% (first day of split trading), 58.5% and 49.1% today.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 12.68%, 16.95%, 01.09%, 47.44% and 44.68% respectively. Price spread today was 9.00% vs. 47.89%, 9.17%, 11.87%, 16.22%, 8.32%, 13.25%, 7.17%, 5.88% and 4.53% on prior days. I attributed yesterday's huge spread to just the market getting back to normal trading after the reverse split and I said expected it to begin to narrow as folks get a feel for "The New Normal". Today it looks like the adjustment is underway. We just need to let enough days pass to see where its center seems to be.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes. The first period was three trades of seven shares. Odd lot trades were scattered throughout the day  995 shares, ~8.8% of the day's volume. One oddlot, at $4.00, was lower than the officially reported low of $4.01. See the breakdown by price.
09:4009:40: 000021 shrs, 00.19% of vol, VWAP $4.0100, 000.0% buys
10:0211:12: 002928 shrs, 27.02% of vol, VWAP $4.1425, 086.5% buys
11:2611:55: 001820 shrs, 16.80% of vol, VWAP $4.1989, 080.3% buys
12:4913:40: 000590 shrs, 05.44% of vol, VWAP $4.1983, 016.9% buys
14:0114:41: 001176 shrs, 10.85% of vol, VWAP $4.1175, 024.3% buys
14:4515:08: 002158 shrs, 19.92% of vol, VWAP $4.1468, 020.9% buys
15:0915:43: 001893 shrs, 17.47% of vol, VWAP $4.0686, 025.8% buys
15:5315:57: 000250 shrs, 02.31% of vol, VWAP $4.3380, 080.0% buys
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary price range.
$4.0000$4.0000: 000022 shrs, 00.20% of vol, VWAP $4.0000, 000.0% buys
$4.0100$4.0900: 003571 shrs, 32.95% of vol, VWAP $4.0683, 001.5% buys
$4.1000$4.1600: 003242 shrs, 29.92% of vol, VWAP $4.1037, 063.1% buys
$4.2000$4.2500: 003025 shrs, 27.92% of vol, VWAP $4.2174, 087.1% buys
$4.3000$4.3600: 000976 shrs, 09.01% of vol, VWAP $4.3363, 080.4% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
08/22 $4.3751 00.53% 39.3%
08/25 $4.3704 00.11% 21.7%
08/26 $4.3854 +00.34% 18.9%
08/27 $4.3899 +00.10% 20.2%
08/28 $4.5376 +03.36% 05.1%
08/29 $4.4190 02.61% 27.0%
09/02 $4.6808 +05.92% 68.9%
09/03 $4.5005 03.85% 21.7%
09/04 $4.4672 00.74% 22.1%
09/05 $4.4133 01.21% 35.9%
09/08 $5.2195 +18.27% 81.9%
09/09 $4.1670 20.16% 41.0%
09/10 $4.1214 01.09% 50.9%
The larger trades (>= 400: tried 300 yesterday, adjusted for 50:1 reverse split, but that seemed to encompass too many trades. I mentioned I might need to modify this value as we gain experience) occurred on 6 of the 60 trades, 10.00% . These 4,070 shares were 37.56% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $4.1600. 4 of the larger trades, 66.67%, were buys of 3,090 shares, 75.92% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $4.1885. 2 of the larger trades, 33.33%, were sells of 980 shares, 24.08% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $4.0701.
The other 54 trades, 90.00% of the day's trades, traded 6,766 shares, 62.44% of the days volume. The VWAP was $4.1352. 20 trades, 37.04%, were buys and accounted for 2,428 shares, 35.89% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $4.2000. 34 trades, 62.96%, were sells and accounted for 4,338 shares, 64.11% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $4.0413.
Here's my newer inflection point calculations. We switched from all six periods having increasing weakness yesterday to all periods with reducing weakness today on "medium" equivalent splitadjusted volume (see above). May still be just "noise" as the market adjusts to the new regime. A few more days should begin to tell the tale.
_5day_ 10day_ _25day_ _50day_ _100day_ _200day_
089.12 0281.96 0624.81 0957.18 01872.24 05205.92
111.30 0260.00 0638.62 0929.50 01879.95 05021.03
154.46 0276.71 0646.30 0909.54 01655.17 04243.42
174.72 0229.02 0677.36 1032.04 01772.54 04889.32
118.60 0179.80 0494.70 0863.34 01329.35 03548.15
126.82 0213.13 0580.97 0993.15 01670.96 04693.76
122.20 0235.59 0587.18 0995.53 01668.42 04939.36
056.43 0227.37 0595.78 1028.55 01760.79 05268.13
011.38 0147.79 0385.85 0568.52 00644.68 01388.33
064.11 0219.21 0639.96 1274.05 02232.67 07129.92
049.06 0198.39 0611.84 1167.34 02170.75 06879.01
"Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection point changes here are in the latest daily post above.
09/09/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 93, MinTrSz: 1, MaxTrSz: 1000, Vol: 20617, AvTrSz: 222
Min. Pr: 3.5500, Max Pr: 5.2500, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 4.1670
# Buys, Shares: 36 8447, VW Avg Buy Pr: 4.2091
# Sells, Shares: 56 12070, VW Avg Sell Pr: 4.1404
# Unkn, Shares: 1 100, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 3.8200
Buy:Sell 1:1.43 (40.97% "buys"), DlyShts 3939 (19.11%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 32.63%
Today was a highvolume day, using the reversesplit adjusted volume equivalent of 1,030,850 shares traded. As with most of the recent highvolume days, pressure was lower on the VWAP. Adjusted for the reversesplit our VWAP would be $0.0833, down 5.63% from Friday's $0.0883.
It's too soon after the reverse split to tell if the directional correlation of buy and daily short percentage are back to normal, but it's looking possible with both lower today and the short percentage exhibiting the choppy movements to be expected when it's making another "leg". We'll have to wait and see.
Selling continues to dominate but it's really too soon to ascertain if this will hold in the new price regime. From 8/20 onward the selling was 60.73%, 78.17%, 78.20%, 71.3%, 94.9%, 71.44%, 5.3%, 76.6%, 77.9%, 63.9%, 18.1% (first day of split trading) and 58.5% today.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 21.11%, 4.55%, 20.16%, 1588.53% and 1,213.00% respectively. Price spread today was 47.89% vs. 9.17%, 11.87%, 16.22%, 8.32%, 13.25%, 7.17%, 5.88%, 4.53% and 5.69% on prior days. I attribute the huge spread to be just the market getting back to normal trading after the reverse split and expect it to begin to narrow as folks get a feel for "The New Normal".
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
08/21 $4.3986 00.65% 31.7%
08/22 $4.3751 00.53% 39.3%
08/25 $4.3704 00.11% 21.7%
08/26 $4.3854 +00.34% 18.9%
08/27 $4.3899 +00.10% 20.2%
08/28 $4.5376 +03.36% 05.1%
08/29 $4.4190 02.61% 27.0%
09/02 $4.6808 +05.92% 68.9%
09/03 $4.5005 03.85% 21.7%
09/04 $4.4672 00.74% 22.1%
09/05 $4.4133 01.21% 35.9%
09/08 $5.2195 +18.27% 81.9%
09/09 $4.1670 20.16% 41.0%
The larger trades (>= 300 when adjusted for 50:1 reverse split I might need to modify this value as we gain experience) occurred on 26 of the 93 trades, 27.96%. These 13,823 shares were 67.05% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $4.14. 11 of the larger trades, 42.31%, were buys of 5,765 shares, 41.71% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $4.14. 15 of the larger trades, 57.69%, were sells of 8,058 shares, 58.29% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $4.14.
The other 67 trades, 72.04% of the day's trades, traded 6,794 shares, 32.95% of the days volume. The VWAP was $4.22. 25 trades, 37.31%, were buys and accounted for 2,682 shares, 39.48% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $4.35. 41 trades, 61.19%, were sells and accounted for 4,012 shares, 59.05% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $4.14. 1 trade, 1.49%, was an unknown and accounted for 100 shares, 1.47% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $3.82.
Here's my newer inflection point calculations. Consider the equivalent of high volume, in equivalent preadjusted shares, when noting that all six periods had increasing weakness today. I can't say if this is really high volume  it will take some time to start developing a feel for that.
_5day_ 10day_ _25day_ _50day_ _100day_ _200day_
079.89 0279.15 0624.84 0978.52 01917.93 05424.44
089.12 0281.96 0624.81 0957.18 01872.24 05205.92
111.30 0260.00 0638.62 0929.50 01879.95 05021.03
154.46 0276.71 0646.30 0909.54 01655.17 04243.42
174.72 0229.02 0677.36 1032.04 01772.54 04889.32
118.60 0179.80 0494.70 0863.34 01329.35 03548.15
126.82 0213.13 0580.97 0993.15 01670.96 04693.76
122.20 0235.59 0587.18 0995.53 01668.42 04939.36
056.43 0227.37 0595.78 1028.55 01760.79 05268.13
011.38 0147.79 0385.85 0568.52 00644.68 01388.33
064.11 0219.21 0639.96 1274.05 02232.67 07129.92
"Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection point changes here are in the latest daily post above.
09/08/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 13, MinTrSz: 1, MaxTrSz: 200, Vol: 1221, AvTrSz: 94
Min. Pr: 4.5000, Max Pr: 5.5000, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 5.2195
# Buys, Shares: 8 1000, VW Avg Buy Pr: 5.2680
# Sells, Shares: 5 221, VW Avg Sell Pr: 5.0000
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 4.52:1 (81.90% "buys"), DlyShts 300 (24.57%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 135.75%
A 50:1 reverse split was done effective with start of trading 9/8/2014. Many folks were not able to trade that day so both trade and short volume shouldn't be taken too seriously ... yet.
For that reason, no serious analysis for a few days.
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line. Keep in mind the $0.0911 "crossing bid" on 8/28 when thinking about these. See the 8/15 EOD post for some exceptional conditions that were seen.
08/20 4.4273 01.75% 51.3%
08/21 4.3986 00.65% 31.7%
08/22 4.3751 00.53% 39.3%
08/25 4.3704 00.11% 21.7%
08/26 4.3854 +00.34% 18.9%
08/27 4.3899 +00.10% 20.2%
08/28 4.5376 +03.36% 05.1%
08/29 4.4190 02.61% 27.0%
09/02 4.6808 +05.92% 68.9%
09/03 4.5005 03.85% 21.7%
09/04 4.4672 00.74% 22.1%
09/05 4.4133 01.21% 35.9%
09/08 5.2195 +18.27% 81.9%
Here's my newer inflection point calculations. Consider the very low volume when noting that five of six periods had increasing weakness today, the fiveday period being the exception with a minuscule improvement to less weakening.
_5day_ 10day_ _25day_ _50day_ _100day_ _200day_
065.98 0278.96 0639.05 0982.02 02075.97 05875.84
079.89 0279.15 0624.84 0978.52 01917.93 05424.44
089.12 0281.96 0624.81 0957.18 01872.24 05205.92
111.30 0260.00 0638.62 0929.50 01879.95 05021.03
154.46 0276.71 0646.30 0909.54 01655.17 04243.42
174.72 0229.02 0677.36 1032.04 01772.54 04889.32
118.60 0179.80 0494.70 0863.34 01329.35 03548.15
126.82 0213.13 0580.97 0993.15 01670.96 04693.76
122.20 0235.59 0587.18 0995.53 01668.42 04939.36
056.43 0227.37 0595.78 1028.55 01760.79 05268.13
011.38 0147.79 0385.85 0568.52 00644.68 01388.33
"Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection point changes here are in the latest daily post above.
09/05/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 153, MinTrSz: 58, MaxTrSz: 50000, Vol: 192638, AvTrSz: 1259
Min. Pr: 0.0851, Max Pr: 0.0929, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.0883
# Buys, Shares: 123 69168, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.0900
# Sells, Shares: 27 123170, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.0873
# Unkn, Shares: 3 300, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0883
Buy:Sell 1:1.78 (35.91% "buys"), DlyShts 3500 (01.82%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 2.84%
We keep hitting that $0.0851  today seven sells totaling 8K shares. Since none of these were best bid at the time of the trade  was best only premarket at 9:10 and was "bested" by $0.0864 at 09:31  I'm guessing these are some of Shaggydude4hire's trades through TradeKing?
The fading signs of strength mentioned yesterday, again on low volume, continues today. VWAP 01.21% on low volume again. Thankfully volume was down 36.40% so there's no indication from volume that we will plummet lower. But there's also no suggestion we'll move up.
For the following keep in mind continued very low volume (114K, 301K, 302K and ~193K now) and the time of the month pattern I've mentioned many times. The pattern of the bid or offer action that I suspect is manipulative in nature was back today, but not as strong or consistent. The bid side behaved much more normally today with NITE and ATDF continuing their battle, but somewhat less aggressively. On the offer side they also battled but had more frequent "resets" to higher prices before driving the offer down again. This resulted in the buy percentage increasing by 62.17% from 22.1% to 35.9%.
The traditional TA oscillators I watch, which all had negative ticks yesterday, went back to mixed again with RSI and Williams %R flat, ADX related, MFI and full stochastic all ticking lower, and momentum and accum./distrib. improving slightly. The lower VWAP supports yesterday's "Coming from a slight upward bias followed by a mixed bias I think this portends lower trading range on the nearterm horizon". Volume is so low that we can't count on these indications though  it could easily switch again.
Add in that we have three consecutive days of lows at $0.0851 and three consecutive days of lower highs and VWAPs and the nearterm doesn't look all that rosy.
The Bollinger bands, which had the lower limit already beginning to descend, has the upper limit beginning to descend too now. The upper and lower readings today are $0.1016 (after two days at $0.1018) and $0.0854, down from $0.0859 and $0.0864 prior to that.
My original nontraditional inflection point calculations improved slightly, going from five periods improved and one weaker (the 10day period) to all six periods improved. Keep in mind the low volume it's again likely just "noise" as the only "larger" change is in the fiveday period.
My newer version, in which I have more confidence, which had two showing less weakness and four showing increasing weakness, continued with that same configuration. Although the low volume may just be making this noisy right now, having two consecutive days in this same consistent configuration may warrant a greater belief in what they are suggesting.
After three consecutive days with buy and daily short percentages behaving as they should, based on history, we got a small break yesterday, which I termed inconsequential considering the volume. The disconnect continued today and I still think it inconsequential because the volume was even lower, down 36.40%. Buy percentage rose 62.17% to 35.9% while short percentage fell 74.9% to 1.82%. I think this is just noise.
The only real outliers were the three $0.929 buys of 100 shares each trade. This is 3.22% above the net lower price of $0.0900 which were the majority of the 119 100 share trades.
Selling continues to dominate as the bids hit far outweighed the offers hit. From 8/19 onward the selling was 68.3%, 60.73%, 78.17%, 78.20%, 71.3%, 94.9%, 71.44%, 5.3%, 76.6%, 77.9% and 63.9% today.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 0.00%, 2.42%, 01.21%, 36.40% and 84.02% respectively. Price spread today was 9.17% vs. 11.87%, 16.22%, 8.32%, 13.25%, 7.17%, 5.88%, 4.53%, 5.69% and 8.24% on prior days.
The larger trades (>= 15K) occurred on 2 of the 153 trades, 1.31%. These 80,000 shares were 41.53% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0888. 1 of the larger trades, 50.00%, was a buy of 30,000 shares, 37.50% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0900. 1 of the larger trades, 50.00%, was a sell of 50,000 shares, 62.50% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0880.
The other 151 trades, 98.69% of the day's trades, traded 112,638 shares, 58.47% of the days volume. The VWAP was $0.0879. 122 trades, 80.79%, were buys and accounted for 39,168 shares, 34.77% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0900. 26 trades, 17.22%, were sells and accounted for 73,170 shares, 64.96% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0868. 3 trades, 1.99%, were unknowns and accounted for 300 shares, 0.27% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0883.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes. Note that from 13:23 to 14:44 there were 119 trades of 100 shares, all but six at buys $0.0900. Three were unknown at $0.0883 and three were buys at $0.0929. Mixed in were trades 1 x 10K for $0.0867 at 13:25:54 (sell), 1 x 50K for $0.0888 at 13:28:42 (sell), 1 x 2.5K for $0.0864 (sell) at 14:29:33, and 1 x 2.5K for $0.0851 (sell) at that same time.
09:3109:40: 035500 shrs, 18.43% of vol, VWAP $0.0899, 098.6% buys
10:0111:04: 011500 shrs, 05.97% of vol, VWAP $0.0887, 069.6% buys
11:1712:40: 012000 shrs, 06.23% of vol, VWAP $0.0882, 058.3% buys
13:0413:27: 035800 shrs, 18.58% of vol, VWAP $0.0874, 002.2% buys
13:2813:55: 054900 shrs, 28.50% of vol, VWAP $0.0882, 008.4% buys
14:0014:29: 009300 shrs, 04.83% of vol, VWAP $0.0877, 046.2% buys
14:2915:03: 006559 shrs, 03.40% of vol, VWAP $0.0875, 029.9% buys
15:3215:58: 019569 shrs, 10.16% of vol, VWAP $0.0867, 000.0% buys
15:5915:59: 007510 shrs, 03.90% of vol, VWAP $0.0900, 100.0% buys
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary price range. Note the 100 share trades mentioned above, regarding the majority at $0.0900, and add in 50K of shares at the price in larger trades of 30K, 8K, 7K and 5K. These were all buys.
$0.0851$0.0867: 038170 shrs, 19.81% of vol, VWAP $0.0863, 000.0% buys
$0.0870$0.0883: 085300 shrs, 44.28% of vol, VWAP $0.0877, 000.0% buys
$0.0900$0.0900: 068868 shrs, 35.75% of vol, VWAP $0.0900, 100.0% buys
$0.0929$0.0929: 000100 shrs, 00.05% of vol, VWAP $0.0929, 100.0% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line. Keep in mind the $0.0911 "crossing bid" on 8/28 when thinking about these. See the 8/15 EOD post for some exceptional conditions that were seen.
08/20 $0.0885 01.75% 51.3%
08/21 $0.0880 00.65% 31.7%
08/22 $0.0875 00.53% 39.3%
08/25 $0.0874 00.11% 21.7%
08/26 $0.0877 +00.34% 18.9%
08/27 $0.0878 +00.10% 20.2%
08/28 $0.0908 +03.36% 05.1%
08/29 $0.0884 02.61% 27.0%
09/02 $0.0936 +05.92% 68.9%
09/03 $0.0900 03.85% 21.7%
09/04 $0.0893 00.74% 22.1%
09/05 $0.0883 01.21% 35.9%
Here's my newer inflection point calculations. Consider the very low volume when noting that five of six periods had increasing weakness today, the fiveday period being the exception with a minuscule improvement to less weakening.
_5day_ 10day_ _25day_ _50day_ _100day_ _200day_
155.54 0288.76 0636.48 1006.68 02154.14 06267.86
065.98 0278.96 0639.05 0982.02 02075.97 05875.84
079.89 0279.15 0624.84 0978.52 01917.93 05424.44
089.12 0281.96 0624.81 0957.18 01872.24 05205.92
111.30 0260.00 0638.62 0929.50 01879.95 05021.03
154.46 0276.71 0646.30 0909.54 01655.17 04243.42
174.72 0229.02 0677.36 1032.04 01772.54 04889.32
118.60 0179.80 0494.70 0863.34 01329.35 03548.15
126.82 0213.13 0580.97 0993.15 01670.96 04693.76
122.20 0235.59 0587.18 0995.53 01668.42 04939.36
056.43 0227.37 0595.78 1028.55 01760.79 05268.13
"Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection point changes here are are in the latest daily post above.
09/04/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 45, MinTrSz: 200, MaxTrSz: 23600, Vol: 302890, AvTrSz: 6731
Min. Pr: 0.0851, Max Pr: 0.0952, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.0893
# Buys, Shares: 13 67062, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.0911
# Sells, Shares: 32 235828, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.0888
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:3.52 (22.14% "buys"), DlyShts 21900 (07.23%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 9.29%
Today the opening trade was for 1K shares at $0.0851, so we are still challenging the $0.085 level almost every day.
The brief signs of strength yesterday suggesting an upward movement, on very low volume, faded quickly today, again on low volume. VWAP was down 03.85% along with volume up 163.60%, but still low.
For the following keep in mind continued very low volume (114K, 301K and 302K now), the consistent EOD tape painting (all buys of the offer again today in the last five minutes, but we did have some volume), and the time of the month pattern I've mentioned many times. Today broke the pattern of the bid or offer action that I suspect is manipulative in nature. Both sides behaved much more normally today except that NITE and ATDF continued their battle on the offer side. But the runs down were shorter before they "reset" to a higher offer and started the downward cycle again.
The traditional TA oscillators I watch, which were mixed, all got negative ticks today. Coming from a slight upward bias followed by a mixed bias I think this portends lower trading range on the nearterm horizon.
The Bollinger bands, which briefly went parallel, now have the lower limit descending. The upper and lower readings today are $0.1018 (second day) and $0.0859, down from $0.0864.
My original nontraditional inflection point calculations improved slightly, switching to five periods improved and one weaker (the 10day period) from a threeandthree split. Keep in mind the low volume it's again likely just "noise".
My newer version, in which I have more confidence, made only a minor improvement, switching from all showing more weakness to showing less weakness and four showing increasing weakness now. The low volume may just be making this noisy right now.
After the third consecutive day that buy and daily short percentages have behaved as they should, based on history, we had a small break today, but inconsequential considering the volume. Buy percentage rose 1.90% from 21.7% to 22.1% while short percentage fell 14.3% from 9.3% to 7.23%. I think this is just noise.
The only real outlier was the $0.0851 sell mentioned above.
Selling continued to dominate as the bids hit far outweighed the offers hit. From 8/18 onward the selling was 47.7%, 68.3%, 60.73%, 78.17%, 78.20%, 71.3%, 94.9%, 71.44%, 5.3%, 76.6% and 77.9% today.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 0.00%, 3.74%, 00.74%, 0.63% and 21.79% respectively. Price spread today was 11.87% vs. 16.22%, 8.32%, 13.25%, 7.17%, 5.88%, 4.53%, 5.69%, 8.24% and 5.88% on prior days.
The larger trades (>= 15K) occurred on 8 of the 45 trades, 17.78%. These 153,310 shares were 50.62% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0888. 1 of the larger trades, 12.50%, were buys of 16,782 shares, 10.95% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0879. 7 of the larger trades, 87.50%, were sells of 136,528 shares, 89.05% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0889.
The other 37 trades, 82.22% of the day's trades, traded 149,580 shares, 49.38% of the days volume. The VWAP was $0.0899. 12 trades, 32.43%, were buys and accounted for 50,280 shares, 33.61% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0922. 25 trades, 67.57%, were sells and accounted for 99,300 shares, 66.39% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0888.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes. Note that the first period includes the day's low, the first trade at $0.0851. Keep in mind the bid manipulation (?) I described above as the morning progressed. The last two entries are the tape painting.
09:3010:56: 089890 shrs, 29.68% of vol, VWAP $0.0879, 024.4% buys
11:0614:20: 120100 shrs, 39.65% of vol, VWAP $0.0900, 006.0% buys
14:2115:47: 035000 shrs, 11.56% of vol, VWAP $0.0883, 000.0% buys
15:5115:56: 036900 shrs, 12.18% of vol, VWAP $0.0914, 045.8% buys
15:5815:59: 021000 shrs, 06.93% of vol, VWAP $0.0900, 100.0% buys
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary price range.
$0.0851$0.0851: 001000 shrs, 00.33% of vol, VWAP $0.0851, 000.0% buys
$0.0872$0.0886: 132710 shrs, 43.81% of vol, VWAP $0.0877, 012.6% buys
$0.0900$0.0906: 144900 shrs, 47.84% of vol, VWAP $0.0900, 017.9% buys
$0.0928$0.0928: 002400 shrs, 00.79% of vol, VWAP $0.0928, 100.0% buys
$0.0942$0.0947: 018800 shrs, 06.21% of vol, VWAP $0.0946, 100.0% buys
$0.0952$0.0952: 003080 shrs, 01.02% of vol, VWAP $0.0952, 100.0% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line. Keep in mind the $0.0911 "crossing bid" on 8/28 when thinking about these. See the 8/15 EOD post for some exceptional conditions that were seen.
08/19 $0.0901 00.31% 37.1%
08/20 $0.0885 01.75% 51.3%
08/21 $0.0880 00.65% 31.7%
08/22 $0.0875 00.53% 39.3%
08/25 $0.0874 00.11% 21.7%
08/26 $0.0877 +00.34% 18.9%
08/27 $0.0878 +00.10% 20.2%
08/28 $0.0908 +03.36% 05.1%
08/29 $0.0884 02.61% 27.0%
09/02 $0.0936 +05.92% 68.9%
09/03 $0.0900 03.85% 21.7%
09/04 $0.0893 00.74% 22.1%
Here's my newer inflection point calculations.
_5day_ 10day_ _25day_ _50day_ _100day_ _200day_
175.00 0284.99 0657.58 1053.02 02330.95 06797.51
155.54 0288.76 0636.48 1006.68 02154.14 06267.86
065.98 0278.96 0639.05 0982.02 02075.97 05875.84
079.89 0279.15 0624.84 0978.52 01917.93 05424.44
089.12 0281.96 0624.81 0957.18 01872.24 05205.92
111.30 0260.00 0638.62 0929.50 01879.95 05021.03
154.46 0276.71 0646.30 0909.54 01655.17 04243.42
174.72 0229.02 0677.36 1032.04 01772.54 04889.32
118.60 0179.80 0494.70 0863.34 01329.35 03548.15
126.82 0213.13 0580.97 0993.15 01670.96 04693.76
122.20 0235.59 0587.18 0995.53 01668.42 04939.36
"Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection point changes here are in the latest daily post above.
09/03/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 41, MinTrSz: 300, MaxTrSz: 35000, Vol: 301000, AvTrSz: 7341
Min. Pr: 0.0851, Max Pr: 0.0989, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.0900
# Buys, Shares: 12 65400, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.0936
# Sells, Shares: 28 230600, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.0889
# Unkn, Shares: 1 5000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0960
Buy:Sell 1:3.53 (21.73% "buys"), DlyShts 28000 (09.30%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 12.14%
We are still challenging the $0.085 level where the 590K bid at $0.085 is at, if it still exists. NITE has consistently had a bid better than $0.085, which would mask that 590K.
Today the opening trade was for 2K shares at $0.0851, putting the lie to yesterday's low of $0.0914. Both days have topped just below $0.10 at $0.099 and then $0.0989.
The brief signs of strength yesterday suggesting an upward movement, on very low volume, faded quickly today, again on low volume. VWAP was down 03.85% along with volume up 163.60%, but still low.
For the following keep in mind that very low volume, the consistent EOD tape painting, the bid action that I suspect is manipulative in nature, and the time of the month pattern I've mentioned many times.
With trading three consecutive days ending with a close above my descending trading channel, it's officially broken. Of course, it's thanks to consistent EOD tape painting and a sideways trading range that eventually just moved beyond the resistance line. It was also on very low volume and during the time of month when we have seen a trend of stable or even slightly higher price. I was wondering if the trend was intact and it seems it is.
The traditional TA oscillators I watch are mixed, with positive signs suggested by momentum ticking up to 0.9784 form 0.9519, Williams %R rising and near overbought, RSI ticking up to 42.04 from 41.50, and MACD histogram slightly positive at 0.002, where it's been for several days. RSI and momentum are still below neutral through. Negative weakening trends are shown by MFI, full stochastic and ADX related.
The Bollinger bands have transitioned from converging to mostly parallel with a slight upward bias. The upper and lower readings today are $0.1018 and $0.0864.
My original nontraditional inflection point calculations switched from all periods showing slightly less weakness to a threeandthree split. Keep in mind the low volume it's again likely just "noise".
My newer version, in which I have more confidence, switched from showing less weakness to all showing more weakness now. The low volume may just be making this noisy right now.
Yesterday it was looking like buy and daily short percentage directional correlations were back. I was still cautious with yesterday's volume. Today buy percentage was down and so was daily short percentage. Given the low volume I think this is suggesting that things are returning to normal. This is the third consecutive day they have behaved as they should, based on history.
Some interesting bid action, seen several times before, occurred today again.
Price started moving up right away as ATDF and NITE began an extended battle to drive the price range higher. From 9:30 to 10:19 they leapfrogged each other for twentyfour consecutive bid increases before any retreat was seen. Then it dropped from $0.095 all the way back to $0.0886 and then they started the move up again,but this time with more variety, interspersing retreats with increases. But from 13:07 to 14:29 they had another sixteen increases with no pullback.
I commented in the concentrator that I thought this was all quite suspicious.
Regardless, unlike yesterday we did not trade trade entirely above $0.09. So there was some normalcy to today's behavior.
The only real outliers were the $0.0851 opening sell mentioned above and the last two trades of $0.0936 for 4,500 shares and $0.0953 for 5,000 shares. This is the de rigueur EOD painting to make the charts look good and entice some unwary souls into making bad decisions, IMO.
Yesterday I cracked wise "Well, we know how to cure the sell percentage problem  DON'T TRADE!". But as usual people don't listen ;) and the 163% volume increase brought a return of the selling! From 8/18 onward the selling was 47.7%, 68.3%, 60.73%, 78.17%, 78.20%, 71.3%, 94.9%, 71.44%, 5.3% and 76.6% today.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 6.89%, 0.10%, 03.85%, 163.60% and 71.65% respectively. Price spread today was 16.22% vs. 8.32%, 13.25%, 7.17%, 5.88%, 4.53%, 5.69%, 8.24%, 5.88% and 13.25% on prior days.
The larger trades (>= 15K) occurred on 7 of the 41 trades, 17.07%. These 161,600 shares were 53.69% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0891. All were sells.
The other 34 trades, 82.93% of the day's trades, traded 139,400 shares, 46.31% of the days volume. The VWAP was $0.0910. 12 trades, 35.29%, were buys and accounted for 65,400 shares, 46.92% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0936. 21 trades, 61.76%, were sells and accounted for 69,000 shares, 49.50% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0882. 1 trades, 2.94%, was an unknown and accounted for 5000 shares, 3.59% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0960.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes. Note that the first period includes the day's low, the first trade at $0.0851. Keep in mind the bid manipulation (?) I described above as the morning progressed. The last two entries are the tape painting.
09:3009:51: 012500 shrs, 04.15% of vol, VWAP $0.0962, 080.0% buys
10:1110:31: 045900 shrs, 15.25% of vol, VWAP $0.0931, 043.4% buys
10:3612:05: 013500 shrs, 04.49% of vol, VWAP $0.0898, 081.5% buys
12:3913:07: 146000 shrs, 48.50% of vol, VWAP $0.0884, 000.0% buys
13:2713:38: 011000 shrs, 03.65% of vol, VWAP $0.0952, 090.9% buys
13:4214:49: 059600 shrs, 19.80% of vol, VWAP $0.0888, 008.4% buys
14:5515:47: 003000 shrs, 01.00% of vol, VWAP $0.0867, 000.0% buys
15:4815:48: 004500 shrs, 01.50% of vol, VWAP $0.0936, 100.0% buys
15:5415:54: 005000 shrs, 01.66% of vol, VWAP $0.0953, 100.0% buys
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary price range.
$0.0851$0.0867: 009000 shrs, 02.99% of vol, VWAP $0.0856, 000.0% buys
$0.0870$0.0883: 150600 shrs, 50.03% of vol, VWAP $0.0881, 000.0% buys
$0.0891$0.0900: 078900 shrs, 26.21% of vol, VWAP $0.0895, 036.6% buys
$0.0936$0.0953: 030500 shrs, 10.13% of vol, VWAP $0.0948, 031.1% buys
$0.0960$0.0968: 021000 shrs, 06.98% of vol, VWAP $0.0960, 076.2% buys
$0.0979$0.0979: 001000 shrs, 00.33% of vol, VWAP $0.0979, 100.0% buys
$0.0989$0.0989: 010000 shrs, 03.32% of vol, VWAP $0.0989, 100.0% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line. Keep in mind the $0.0911 "crossing bid" on 8/28 when thinking about these. See the 8/15 EOD post for some exceptional conditions that were seen.
08/18 $0.0904 05.18% 43.8%
08/19 $0.0901 00.31% 37.1%
08/20 $0.0885 01.75% 51.3%
08/21 $0.0880 00.65% 31.7%
08/22 $0.0875 00.53% 39.3%
08/25 $0.0874 00.11% 21.7%
08/26 $0.0877 +00.34% 18.9%
08/27 $0.0878 +00.10% 20.2%
08/28 $0.0908 +03.36% 05.1%
08/29 $0.0884 02.61% 27.0%
09/02 $0.0936 +05.92% 68.9%
09/03 $0.0900 03.85% 21.7%
Here's my newer inflection point calculations. Being still in a low volume period, it's still hard to think today's entry is other than noise.
_5day_ 10day_ _25day_ _50day_ _100day_ _200day_
218.93 0282.36 0691.61 1072.74 02349.09 06946.85
175.00 0284.99 0657.58 1053.02 02330.95 06797.51
155.54 0288.76 0636.48 1006.68 02154.14 06267.86
065.98 0278.96 0639.05 0982.02 02075.97 05875.84
079.89 0279.15 0624.84 0978.52 01917.93 05424.44
089.12 0281.96 0624.81 0957.18 01872.24 05205.92
111.30 0260.00 0638.62 0929.50 01879.95 05021.03
154.46 0276.71 0646.30 0909.54 01655.17 04243.42
174.72 0229.02 0677.36 1032.04 01772.54 04889.32
118.60 0179.80 0494.70 0863.34 01329.35 03548.15
126.82 0213.13 0580.97 0993.15 01670.96 04693.76
"Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection point changes here are in the latest daily post above.
09/02/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 16, MinTrSz: 438, MaxTrSz: 23000, Vol: 114188, AvTrSz: 7137
Min. Pr: 0.0914, Max Pr: 0.0990, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.0936
# Buys, Shares: 11 78688, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.0940
# Sells, Shares: 1 6000, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.0929
# Unkn, Shares: 4 29500, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0927
Buy:Sell 13.11:1 (68.91% "buys"), DlyShts 98750 (86.48%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 1645.83%
The one thing that had held steady was challenging the $0.085 level where the 590K bid at $0.085, if it still exists, lays. Not today  $0.0914 was the low. If trading had been a bit more than $10,689.82 worth of equities, maybe we could start turning handsprings.
We did trade entirely above $0.09. Whoopee. :\
Despite my thoughts yesterday of no signs of strength suggesting an upward movement, we got some on very low volume. Combined with volume off 82.25%, we got a VWAP improvement of 05.92%. So I'm suspecting that we are still seeing the last/first week of the month "flat or even slightly improved" behavior. Recall that I was wondering if the pattern would hold. Best guess for the moment is that it is in play.
Regardless, the traditional TA stuff is presenting some positive signs. We now have two consecutive days with a close above my descending channel's resistance. We do need to keep the EOD tape painting in mind though. With the resistance at roughly $0.0905, even our VWAP has it's first day above that descending line. Keep in mind the very low volume though  no strength suggested by that.
My original nontraditional inflection point calculations have all periods showing slightly less weakness. Do keep in mind this is sensitive to volume and with today's low volume it's likely just "noise". Prior to the last two days the trend was lower in all periods but for the 200day, and even that had begun to weaken.
My newer version, also sensitive to volume but slightly less dependent on it, is in agreement and should also be seen as just noise for now.
I suspect today was nothing but paint  so no EOD action discussion is really worthwhile.
Fun fact: through 13:47 we had 100% buys in 6 trades for 36,938 shares, 32.35% of the day's volume.
It looks like buy and daily short percentage directional correlations may be back ... although I'm still cautious with today's volume. Buy percentage was up 155.18% and daily short percentage was up 490.47%. I suspected something along these lines as I watched those buys through 13:47.
The only real outlier was a single buy of 5,250 shares for $0.0990, 4.21% above the next lower price of $0.0950.
The upper Bollinger limit has transitioned from decreasing its rate of descent getting almost flat now with the move from $0.1019 to $0.1018 today. The lower limit continues to make small improvements. It has moved from $0.0854, $0.0848, $0.0844, $0.0845, $0.0847, $0.085 to $0.0858 today.
Well, we know how to cure the sell percentage problem  DON'T TRADE! From 8/16 onward the selling was 55.44%, 47.7%, 68.3%, 60.73%, 78.17%, 78.20%, 71.3%, 94.9%, 71.44% and 5.3% today.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 10.12%, 5.32%, 05.92%, 82.25% and 4.82% respectively. Price spread today was 8.32% vs. 13.25%, 7.17%, 5.88%, 4.53%, 5.69%, 8.24%, 5.88%, 13.25% and 7.05% on prior days.
The larger trades (>= 15K) occurred on 2 of the 16 trades, 12.50%. These 37,500 shares were 32.84% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0940. 1 of the larger trades, 50.00%, were buys of 23,000 shares, 61.33% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0940. 1 of the larger trades, 50.00%, was an unknown of 14,500 shares, 38.67% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0940.
The other 14 trades, 87.50% of the day's trades, traded 76,688 shares, 67.16% of the days volume. The VWAP was $0.0934. 10 trades, 71.43%, were buys and accounted for 55,688 shares, 72.62% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0940. 1 trade, 7.14%, was a sell and accounted for 6,000 shares, 7.82% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0929. 3 trades, 21.43%, were unknowns and accounted for 15,000 shares, 19.56% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0914.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes.
10:2811:30: 021938 shrs, 19.21% of vol, VWAP $0.0935, 100.0% buys
13:3713:47: 015000 shrs, 13.14% of vol, VWAP $0.0929, 100.0% buys
15:5615:57: 053250 shrs, 46.63% of vol, VWAP $0.0938, 071.8% buys
15:5915:59: 024000 shrs, 21.02% of vol, VWAP $0.0939, 014.6% buys
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary price range.
$0.0914$0.0915: 015000 shrs, 13.14% of vol, VWAP $0.0914, 000.0% buys
$0.0929$0.0939: 051000 shrs, 44.66% of vol, VWAP $0.0933, 088.2% buys
$0.0940$0.0950: 041938 shrs, 36.73% of vol, VWAP $0.0941, 065.4% buys
$0.0950$0.0990: 006250 shrs, 05.47% of vol, VWAP $0.0984, 100.0% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line. Keep in mind the $0.0911 "crossing bid" on 8/28 when thinking about these. See the 8/15 EOD post for some exceptional conditions that were seen.
08/15 $0.0953 01.62% 15.5%
08/18 $0.0904 05.18% 43.8%
08/19 $0.0901 00.31% 37.1%
08/20 $0.0885 01.75% 51.3%
08/21 $0.0880 00.65% 31.7%
08/22 $0.0875 00.53% 39.3%
08/25 $0.0874 00.11% 21.7%
08/26 $0.0877 +00.34% 18.9%
08/27 $0.0878 +00.10% 20.2%
08/28 $0.0908 +03.36% 05.1%
08/29 $0.0884 02.61% 27.0%
09/02 $0.0936 +05.92% 68.9%
Here's my newer inflection point calculations. In spite of the odd trading the last couple days, the predicted weakening in these metrics seems to be appearing as we went from the 5, 10, 25day periods all weaker but the 50, 100 and 200day periods less weak to one period marginally improved, the 10day, and five weaker. I'll need to see more consistency though before deciding it's really a trend  volume has been somewhat unstable, although becoming slowly more stable in a somewhat normal range.
_5day_ 10day_ _25day_ _50day_ _100day_ _200day_
228.96 0302.19 0717.36 1085.17 02658.70 07442.64
218.93 0282.36 0691.61 1072.74 02349.09 06946.85
175.00 0284.99 0657.58 1053.02 02330.95 06797.51
155.54 0288.76 0636.48 1006.68 02154.14 06267.86
065.98 0278.96 0639.05 0982.02 02075.97 05875.84
079.89 0279.15 0624.84 0978.52 01917.93 05424.44
089.12 0281.96 0624.81 0957.18 01872.24 05205.92
111.30 0260.00 0638.62 0929.50 01879.95 05021.03
154.46 0276.71 0646.30 0909.54 01655.17 04243.42
174.72 0229.02 0677.36 1032.04 01772.54 04889.32
118.60 0179.80 0494.70 0863.34 01329.35 03548.15
"Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection point changes here are in the latest daily post above.
Disclosure: The author is long AXPW.
Additional disclosure: I am very experimental and sometimes do my TA in nontraditional fashions. Keep this in mind when considering anything I post and be sure and consult other sources and do your due diligence. I'm barely responsible for myself and certainly not responsible for anyone else or their actions. :)
AXPW: IntraDay Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting Beginning 08/01/2014
Links to blogs older than the 01/01/2014 version, PIPE discussions, one year charts will be found only in that and older blogs. Most historical short sales related stuff has also been chopped.
In the below chart the volume is inverted to enhance readability! Be aware when you view it!
(rightclick and open in new tab, position cursor over image to be able to zoom and scroll)
Next are modified inflection point calculation charts bracketing a price chart for comparison.
The next two identically calculated inflection points are calculated differently from the original above. I have two different presentations of this newer version. The top one has all periods on the same scale. The bottom one has longer periods on the left scale and shorter periods on the right scale. The hope is that shorter period changes will be easier to spot. More work to do, this is a start, hopefully.
Other changes I want to try are still waiting for me to work on them.
(rightclick and open in new tab, position cursor over image to be able to zoom and scroll)
Older stuff for "2013 Dly Sht % of 'sells' values", Weekly 85% price summaries going back to 6/14/2012, and some daytoday VWAP changes stuff going back to 10/09 are available in AXPW: IntraDay Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting Beginning 10/1/2013.
Believing that the PIPE financing has run it's course, I'm not going to post stuff related that any more. The calculations will still be available if needed though.
08/29/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 51, MinTrSz: 200, MaxTrSz: 159800, Vol: 643209, AvTrSz: 12612
Min. Pr: 0.0830, Max Pr: 0.0940, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.0884
# Buys, Shares: 15 173700, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.0901
# Sells, Shares: 34 459534, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.0877
# Unkn, Shares: 2 9975, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0892
Buy:Sell 1:2.65 (27.01% "buys"), DlyShts 94205 (14.65%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 20.50%
Well, RuggedDC's comment in the concentrator put my TFH to shame today as the 800K $0.0911 crossing trade yesterday was an aggressive trade by him to be sure he acquired what he was after. I love it because it puts a temporary kibosh on ATDF's normal 1/100th penny attempts to control both sides of the market and scalp nits.
He also posted that he placed a 170K bid at $0.088. That got taken today along with another 131.8K at that price.
Summarizing what I think today, it's back to normal  no signs of strength suggesting an upward movement.
As part of my TFH erroneous assessment yesterday, I think I got one part right, based on support from today's behavior. I said it gave us a view into sentiment and ended with "So, keeping all that in mind, of the 802K traded 26K (3.24%) were buys and 776K (96.76%) were sells". Today it did improve some, as we should expect since yesterday's sell percentage was an extreme, but it's not showing a lot of strength (yet?) as the buy percentage only made 27% and sell moved to recent normal areas at 71.4% (search for "The selling percentage moved back", without quotes, for a recent string of sell percentages).
I detailed how bid immediately receded when the $0.0911 was exhausted and suggested this also indicated sentiment. Today suggests that is also a correct concern as the VWAP dropped 2.61% to $0.0884, right in range of the recent averages of $0.0884 and $0.0887 for the 5 and 10day averages respectively.
Being that we are in the period when price is to be somewhat stable, or even improve, before dipping again, if that trend is still in place, I would have liked to see a bit more strength appear today. But it's Friday of a long weekend so there's still hope.
Power ETrade Pro doesn't handle holidays well and doesn't show values for volume and the various oscillators on Memorial Day, when I'm working on this, so I'll have to update these Tuesday. I should've remembered that and snagged their values Friday.
Yesterday my original nontraditional stuff disagreed with the traditional TA oscillators' bullish indications, as suggested on the original charts. The trend was lower in all periods but for the 200day, and even that had begun to weaken in the last couple days. My newer version was not quite so consistent because it's designed to include additional factors. But the three shorter periods were in agreement with the original's indications. Today all but one periods is weaker.
Yesterday I abandoned the "... I'm getting the feeling that the "flat or slightly improved in the last and first weeks of the month" past behavior is going to have a tough time holding" due to the action and my TFH assessment that those who could move the market were doing so. Then when RuggedDC posted, I had to reassess and, combined with the other things I see, am again leaning towards we might have a tough time holding the flat to slightly up behavior we've seen in this period in the past.
The one thing that has held steady is challenging the $0.085 level where the 590K bid at $0.085, if it still exists, lays. Today's low was $0.083, admittedly an outlier as detailed elsewhere, and our lows have been, starting 8/19: $0.0880, $0.0830, $0.0850, $0.0850, $0.0861, $0.0860, $0.0850, $0.0851 and $0.0830, and averaged $0.0851. Fortunately, so far, our VWAPs have remained substantially higher, with the 5 and 10day averages at $0.0884 and $0.0887 respectively.
The NITE 590K $0.085 bid wasn't seen today. Since NITE was on the bid all day at a better price I'm still hopeful the bid is still there but just masked for now.
Our friendly paint crew gave us a close of $0.094, today's high, with a buy of 1,000 shares at 15:59:31, assisted by the two preceding buys at $0.0939 of 5K at 15:59:11 and 10K at 15:59:28. This is the highest close seen since the $0.0942 on 8/18. It is paired with a low of $0.083, also the open, the lowest low since the $0.083 of 8/20.
Without those lateday trades the close would be $0.09.
Here is one reason I hate the tape painting  it makes part of the traditional TA always suspect. Yesterday would have closed at $0.0881 or $0.0871 if not for the painting at $0.0909. Then today's candle pattern would make a bullish engulfing pattern even without the painting today. That engulfing pattern correctly predicts a bullish reversal 64% of the time, per Bulkowski. Because of the constant painting, I will not suggest such a pattern is the case.
But it may entice some who don't follow as closely as I do. And it may even be accurate, but that manipulation just makes it impossible to judge with any confidence. So I won't. I'll stick with stuff that is harder to manipulate.
Volume had briefly been rising, 45% and then 78.31%, as VWAP rose 0.10% and 3.36% from prior days. Today volume was down 27.27% as VWAP dropped 02.61%. This occurred even as RuggedDC's $0.088 170K bid was in all day and taken from 12:56 to 12:57 along with another 131.8K at that price at various times. Regardless, here's VWAP percentage changes 8/15 through today, 8/29: 1.62%, 5.18%, 0.31%, 1.75%, 0.65%, 0.53%, 0.11%, +0.34%, +0.10%, +3.36% and 2.61%.
Yesterday I mentioned directional correlation of buy percentage and daily short percentage may be back but I didn't believe it because of the 800K $0.911 crossing bid. As buy percentage fell 74.81% to 5.1% the daily short percentage fell 60.42% to 1.36%. Well maybe, just maybe, the market is returning to normal because this will be the second day of directional correlation. Today buy percentage increased 430.75% to 27% and daily short sales percentage increased 979.51% to 14.65%. Nothing can yet be suggested from this, other than a possible return to correlation, as there are too few days of correlation to yet call it an established trend again.
The day's outliers consisted of the painting shares mentioned above and the opening trade of 3,955 shares that set the low of $0.0830. There was no bid or offer at the $0.083 price that I saw. This suggests an internal trade, maybe intrabroker or intraMM. The next higher bid prices were $0.0851 from NITE, $0.086 and $0.088 at the time.
Since NITE was in at $0.0851 at the time, the 590K $0.0850 bid, if present, would have been masked.
The Bollinger limits continue to converge with the upper limit still decreasing its rate of descent and moved from reading $0.1027 to $0.102 today. The lower limit, which was flattening, continues to make small improvements today. It has moved from $0.0854, $0.0848, $0.0844, $0.0845, $0.0847 to $0.085 today.
The descending channel resistance is ~$0.0906 today and the support is ~$0.0645. After hitting the descending resistance and falling back yesterday, it exceeded the resistance today and closed above it, thanks to the tape painting described above. Close would have been below it at $0.0900 without the painting.
Today my original inflection point calculations moved from all six periods weakening (keep in mind the 800K $0.0911 crossing bid resulted in a huge sell percentage though), with the four shortest periods having hefty changes, to four improved and two weaker. The four shortest periods are in disagreement with two improved and two weaker. With volume relatively low, but better the last three days, I don't think it's just noise but there's not enough agreement to draw any conclusions.
The newer calculations went from the 5, 10 and 25day periods all weaker with the 50, 100 and 200day periods less weak, to one period marginally improved, the 10day, and five periods weaker. I suspect this version is more likely correct than the original version. Next day or two should tell.
The selling percentage moved back to the recent normal range. From 8/15 onward the selling was 84.14%, 55.44%, 47.7%, 68.3%, 60.73%, 78.17%, 78.20%, 71.3%, 94.9% and 71.44% today.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 2.47%, 3.07%, 02.61%, 27.27% and 685.11% respectively. Price spread today was 13.25% vs. 7.17%, 5.88%, 4.53%, 5.69%, 8.24%, 5.88%, 13.25%, 7.05% and 11.74% on prior days.
Note that the larger trade metrics were affected by a 170K bid at $0.088 and a larger sell into that bid of 159.8K along with a sell of 45K and four 15K sells at that price.
The larger trades (>= 15K) occurred on 11 of the 51 trades, 21.57%. These 404,800 shares were 62.93% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0883. 2 of the larger trades, 18.18%, were buys of 88,000 shares, 21.74% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0900. 9 of the larger trades, 81.82%, were sells of 316,800 shares, 78.26% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0878.
Note that the smaller trade metrics were affected by 131,800 shares, 20.49% of day's volume, traded at the $0.088 price, the same as the 170K bid. All but one 10K buy were sells.
The other 40 trades, 78.43% of the day's trades, traded 238,409 shares, 37.07% of the days volume. The VWAP was $0.0886. 13 trades, 32.50%, were buys and accounted for 85,700 shares, 35.95% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0902. 25 trades, 62.50%, were sells and accounted for 142,734 shares, 59.87% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0876. 2 trades, 5.00%, were unknowns and accounted for 9,975 shares, 4.18% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0892.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes. Note the period ending 12:57 contains two of the day's larger trades  a sell of 159K for $0.0880 and a buy of 40K for $0.0900. The period ending 12:53 has one of the larger buys, 48K for $0.0900. The $0.088 bid for 170K from CSTI appeared at the open and patiently waited there as ATDF played the usual 1/100th cent games. This was a winning strategy as the offers trended lower from $0.094 at the open to as low as $0.0899 at 10:04 and then $0.089 at 10:57. Just before the CSTI $0.088 bid was hit the offer was steady at $0.09. Immediately after that order completed the offer dropped to $0.088 (CDEL for 10K) at 12:57.
09:3009:30: 007910 shrs, 01.23% of vol, VWAP $0.0841, 000.0% buys
10:0310:29: 079000 shrs, 12.28% of vol, VWAP $0.0882, 011.4% buys
10:5712:53: 099000 shrs, 15.39% of vol, VWAP $0.0883, 027.1% buys
12:5612:57: 277800 shrs, 43.19% of vol, VWAP $0.0887, 037.1% buys
13:2415:16: 085999 shrs, 13.37% of vol, VWAP $0.0867, 000.0% buys
15:3015:50: 056350 shrs, 08.76% of vol, VWAP $0.0884, 033.5% buys
15:5615:57: 021150 shrs, 03.29% of vol, VWAP $0.0900, 000.0% buys
15:5915:59: 016000 shrs, 02.49% of vol, VWAP $0.0939, 100.0% buys
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary price range. Note the $0.0870$0.0884 range contains the 159.8K buy for $0.088 that was part of the 170K CSTI bid and the additional 131.8K traded at that price.
$0.0830$0.0830: 003955 shrs, 00.61% of vol, VWAP $0.0830, 000.0% buys
$0.0851$0.0861: 043955 shrs, 06.83% of vol, VWAP $0.0860, 000.0% buys
$0.0870$0.0884: 405474 shrs, 63.04% of vol, VWAP $0.0878, 002.5% buys
$0.0890$0.0900: 173825 shrs, 27.02% of vol, VWAP $0.0898, 085.0% buys
$0.0939$0.0939: 015000 shrs, 02.33% of vol, VWAP $0.0939, 100.0% buys
$0.0940$0.0940: 001000 shrs, 00.16% of vol, VWAP $0.0940, 100.0% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line. Keep in mind the $0.0911 "crossing bid" on 8/28 when thinking about these. See the 8/15 EOD post for some exceptional conditions that were seen.
08/14 $0.0969 03.56% 09.4%
08/15 $0.0953 01.62% 15.5%
08/18 $0.0904 05.18% 43.8%
08/19 $0.0901 00.31% 37.1%
08/20 $0.0885 01.75% 51.3%
08/21 $0.0880 00.65% 31.7%
08/22 $0.0875 00.53% 39.3%
08/25 $0.0874 00.11% 21.7%
08/26 $0.0877 +00.34% 18.9%
08/27 $0.0878 +00.10% 20.2%
08/28 $0.0908 +03.36% 05.1%
08/29 $0.0884 02.61% 27.0%
Here's my newer inflection point calculations. In spite of the odd trading the last couple days, the predicted weakening in these metrics seems to be appearing as we went from the 5, 10, 25day periods all weaker but the 50, 100 and 200day periods less weak to one period marginally improved, the 10day, and five weaker. I'll need to see more consistency though before deciding it's really a trend  volume has been somewhat unstable, although becoming slowly more stable in a somewhat normal range.
_5day_ 10day_ _25day_ _50day_ _100day_ _200day_
213.56 0346.24 0590.92 0929.86 02269.98 06180.82
228.96 0302.19 0717.36 1085.17 02658.70 07442.64
218.93 0282.36 0691.61 1072.74 02349.09 06946.85
175.00 0284.99 0657.58 1053.02 02330.95 06797.51
155.54 0288.76 0636.48 1006.68 02154.14 06267.86
065.98 0278.96 0639.05 0982.02 02075.97 05875.84
079.89 0279.15 0624.84 0978.52 01917.93 05424.44
089.12 0281.96 0624.81 0957.18 01872.24 05205.92
111.30 0260.00 0638.62 0929.50 01879.95 05021.03
154.46 0276.71 0646.30 0909.54 01655.17 04243.42
174.72 0229.02 0677.36 1032.04 01772.54 04889.32
"Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection point changes here are omitted from the concentrator.
On my ORIGINAL inflection point calculations, readings for 5, 10, 25, 50, 100 and 200 day periods:
 1day change 
08/20 +21.0% 00.7% +03.8% +01.3% 00.3% +01.5%
08/21 +06.9% 06.4% 02.9% 01.3% 00.3% +00.8%
08/22 +57.6% +00.3% 04.7% 01.7% 03.0% +00.7%
08/25 39.4% 06.1% 04.5% 05.5% 00.6% +00.7%
08/26 15.8% 04.2% 03.4% 01.5% 02.2% 00.6%
08/27 27.2% +04.8% 04.4% 00.4% 03.1% +00.4%
08/28 45.4% 16.5% 12.1% 09.4% 03.3% 01.0%
08/29 06.7% +21.7% +02.4% 03.7% +03.2% +02.0%
 5day change 
08/20 +058.9% +019.6% +027.8% +024.7% +072.4% +080.3%
08/21 +064.2% 002.6% +009.2% +011.8% +048.8% +397.3%
08/22 +788.2% +240.2% +054.8% +059.4% +1090.9% +334.0%
08/25 022.2% 139.2% +002.6% 040.5% 069.7% +008.8%
08/26 013.4% 065.0% 025.6% +016.6% 551.9% 026.8%
08/27 069.9% +035.4% 072.6% 020.5% 046.1% 034.3%
08/28 231.2% 102.9% 054.7% 085.2% 034.7% 089.9%
08/29 248.0% +117.8% +024.2% 014.1% +051.6% +638.2%
 5day rate of change 
08/20 +069.5% +019.0% +059.1% +037.3% +025.0% +019.4%
08/21 +111.8% +007.7% +043.6% +022.8% 021.1% +062.1%
08/22 +2618.3% +252.7% +366.1% +159.8% +124.7% +338.6%
08/25 +015.3% 076.1% +022.9% +087.6% 040.7% +024.0%
08/26 004.9% 060.4% 010.5% +025.5% 124.8% 015.9%
08/27 063.4% +026.8% 084.9% 045.6% 175.2% 049.5%
08/28 119.9% 148.4% 426.1% 111.0% 043.8% 129.6%
08/29 1492.4% 531.5% 040.1% 1210.2% +011.1% 243.4%
On my NEWER inflection point calculations, for those same periods:
 1day change 
08/20 +020.07% 000.93% +004.92% +001.84% +000.77% +002.15%
08/21 +011.12% 001.32% +003.21% +004.40% +007.59% +007.79%
08/22 +057.58% +003.39% 000.40% +002.45% +003.63% +006.25%
08/25 021.08% 000.07% +002.22% +000.36% +007.61% +007.68%
08/26 011.55% 001.01% +000.00% +002.18% +002.38% +004.03%
08/27 024.89% +007.79% 002.21% +002.89% 000.41% +003.55%
08/28 038.77% 006.43% 001.20% +002.15% +011.96% +015.49%
08/29 013.12% +017.23% 004.81% 013.47% 007.09% 015.22%
 5day change 
08/20 +050.65% +010.85% +020.06% +016.64% +012.97% +011.23%
08/21 +066.39% +036.75% +043.30% +047.35% +081.80% +075.37%
08/22 +620.87% +197.25% +069.51% +075.23% +238.94% +152.57%
08/25 +001.01% 065.75% +292.24% +304.49% +281.82% +561.75%
08/26 012.92% 098.28% 027.80% +008.35% 035.63% 013.74%
08/27 050.93% +6193.76% 071.62% +006.90% 005.42% +002.04%
08/28 098.30% 051.77% 151.79% 021.36% +010.63% +013.96%
08/29 10161.08% +314.34% 290.21% 151.50% 039.19% 051.27%
 5day rate of change 
08/20 +060.41% +017.48% +033.24% +022.47% +023.65% +019.60%
08/21 +116.86% +053.93% +086.23% +074.97% +121.13% +099.90%
08/22 +1176.28% +242.18% +434.31% +179.10% +198.42% +28283.05%
08/25 +037.10% +008.12% +218.56% +458.31% +171.83% +318.55%
08/26 010.03% 035.20% 020.53% 012.89% 040.40% 026.07%
08/27 050.77% +009.17% 028.36% 012.07% 010.32% 005.97%
08/28 080.12% 039.54% 050.21% 041.21% 047.59% 036.96%
08/29 971.43% 121.34% 093.36% 099.31% 082.86% 073.83%
Rolling 5day ORIGINAL inflection point calculation aggregate change:
******* ******* *5 Day** *10 Day * * 25Day ** 50 Day **100Day* 200 Day
08/20 5 Day 0591.74 0492.36 1333.74 1632.74 0125.38 0137.59
08/21 5 Day 0211.87 0504.97 1211.62 1439.65 0064.19 +0409.06
08/22 5 Day +1458.15 +0708.08 0547.67 0584.71 +0636.04 +1775.25
08/25 5 Day +1134.56 0277.27 0533.62 0821.27 +0192.47 +1930.70
08/26 5 Day +0982.53 0457.56 0670.10 0685.13 0869.82 +1412.61
08/27 5 Day +0295.99 0295.75 1156.58 0825.32 1270.45 +0927.75
08/28 5 Day 0388.28 0600.15 1789.42 1528.08 1710.75 +0093.84
08/29 5 Day 1351.10 +0107.05 1357.03 1743.31 0827.80 +0692.71
Average change/day, 5 days
____ **5 Day *10 Day *25 Day *50 Day 100 Day 200 Day
08/20 138.23 232.18 142.48 273.29 +318.96 447.94
08/21 +016.25 214.40 080.36 210.89 +251.77 169.62
08/22 +441.65 +327.39 +213.88 +126.02 +565.75 +404.77
08/25 +509.28 +078.29 +262.88 +236.46 +335.67 +501.87
08/26 +484.53 +031.00 +235.24 +296.69 083.23 +422.02
08/27 +177.55 +039.32 +035.43 +161.48 229.01 +213.07
08/28 035.28 019.03 115.56 017.69 329.31 063.05
08/29 561.85 120.21 161.87 231.72 292.77 216.51
Rolling 5day NEWER inflection point calculation aggregate change:
******* ******* *5 Day** *10 Day * * 25Day ** 50 Day **100Day* 200 Day
08/20 5 Day 0084.29 0109.37 0278.35 0399.96 0767.39 2355.04
08/21 5 Day 0028.33 0069.17 0157.83 0210.59 0139.63 0580.08
08/22 5 Day +0147.59 +0067.28 0048.13 0052.15 +0194.01 +0304.98
08/25 5 Day +0149.08 +0023.04 +0092.52 +0106.65 +0740.77 +2018.20
08/26 5 Day +0129.81 +0000.40 +0066.80 +0115.56 +0476.85 +1740.93
08/27 5 Day +0063.70 +0024.99 +0018.96 +0123.53 +0451.00 +1776.48
08/28 5 Day +0001.08 +0012.05 0009.82 +0097.14 +0498.97 +2024.44
08/29 5 Day 0108.75 +0049.94 0038.31 0050.03 +0303.44 +0986.52
Average change/day, 5 days
____ **5 Day *10 Day *25 Day *50 Day 100 Day 200 Day
08/20 0022.65 0053.64 0071.21 0123.67 0265.98 0960.41
08/21 +0003.82 0024.71 0009.81 0030.95 +0056.20 0001.01
08/22 +0048.74 +0035.14 +0032.79 +0024.48 +0167.71 +0283.97
08/25 +0066.83 +0037.99 +0104.45 +0136.69 +0455.91 +1188.55
08/26 +0060.13 +0024.61 +0083.00 +0119.07 +0271.72 +0878.75
08/27 +0029.60 +0026.87 +0059.46 +0104.70 +0243.68 +0826.31
08/28 +0005.88 +0016.25 +0029.60 +0061.55 +0127.72 +0520.91
08/29 0051.27 0003.47 +0001.96 +0000.43 +0021.89 +0136.31
Dly Sht % of 'sells' values JIC it turns out to be useful...
============ 2014 ===============
Mon. 06/02 92.28% 106.34% 21.82% 68.00% 78.39%
Mon. 06/09 394.94% 36.50% 20.32% 3.25% 59.37%
Mon. 06/16 3.08% 20.04% 115.38% 123.91% 41.58%
Mon. 06/23 1.32% 14.66% 42.12% 4.77% 0.00%
Mon. 06/30 14.06% 35.73% 189.65% 12.10%
Mon. 07/07 49.36% 80.69% 51.65% 0.96% 25.44%
Mon. 07/14 710.00% 96.53% 18.18% 12.08% 148.85%
Mon. 07/21 43.30% 27.77% 115.18% 95.82% 55.57%
Mon. 07/28 32.52% 8.48% 2.38% 0.86% 40.17%
Mon. 08/04 5.34% 38.72% 115.70% 3.27% 62.02%
Mon. 08/11 1.46% 22.26% 0.97% 56.36% 14.46%
Mon. 08/18 27.74% 13.61% 18.18% 13.97% 10.63%
Mon. 08/25 23.02% 5.87% 4.81% 1.43% 20.50%
============ 2014 ===============
Mar Avg: 85.68%, min: 16.78%, max: 335.39%
Apr Avg: 51.85%, min: 10.59%, max: 153.62%
May Avg: 87.09%, min: 05.48%, max: 558.01%
Jun Avg: 60.10%, min: 00.00%, max: 394.94%
Jul Avg: 82.38%, min: 00.86%, max: 710.00%
Aug Avg: 22.78%, min: 00.11%, max: 115.70%
0829 Vol 0643209, Sht 0094205 14.65% LHC 0.0830 0.0940 0.0940 b:s 1.11:1
0828 Vol 0884399, Sht 0011999 01.36% LHC 0.0851 0.0912 0.0909 b:s 1:18.65
0827 Vol 0496000, Sht 0017000 03.43% LHC 0.0850 0.0900 0.0897 b:s 1:3.53
0826 Vol 0342069, Sht 0015693 04.59% LHC 0.0860 0.0899 0.0888 b:s 1:4.14
0825 Vol 0765535, Sht 0137750 17.99% LHC 0.0861 0.0910 0.0890 b:s 1:3.60
0822 Vol 0729808, Sht 0048701 06.67% LHC 0.0850 0.0920 0.0898 b:s 1:1.55[145]
0821 Vol 0587450, Sht 0057000 09.70% LHC 0.0850 0.0900 0.0896 b:s 1:2.15[144]
0820 Vol 0503951, Sht 0043680 08.67% LHC 0.0830 0.0940 0.0909 b:s 1.04:1
0819 Vol 0262106, Sht 0022328 08.52% LHC 0.0880 0.0942 0.0925 b:s 1:1.69
0818 Vol 1619708, Sht 0249145 15.38% LHC 0.0860 0.0961 0.0942 b:s 1:1.27
0815 Vol 1458550, Sht 0177450 12.17% LHC 0.0900 0.1079 0.0974 b:s 1:5.42
0814 Vol 0402968, Sht 0205700 51.05% LHC 0.0960 0.1050 0.0998 b:s 1:9.60
0813 Vol 0627170, Sht 0005000 00.80% LHC 0.0960 0.1045 0.0966 b:s 1:4.29[143]
0812 Vol 0213943, Sht 0034130 15.95% LHC 0.0900 0.1097 0.1000 b:s 1:2.17[142]
0811 Vol 0498964, Sht 0005617 01.13% LHC 0.0955 0.1069 0.0991 b:s 1:3.34
0808 Vol 0336537, Sht 0156963 46.64% LHC 0.0905 0.0998 0.0960 b:s 1:3.03
0807 Vol 0260112, Sht 0005000 01.92% LHC 0.0960 0.0998 0.0963 b:s 1:1.57
0806 Vol 0120924, Sht 0048450 40.07% LHC 0.0880 0.0954 0.0940 b:s 1.89:1
0805 Vol 0731659, Sht 0157826 21.57% LHC 0.0851 0.1000 0.0892 b:s 1:1.46[141]
0804 Vol 2122199, Sht 0083000 03.91% LHC 0.0851 0.1100 0.0870 b:s 1:2.86
0801 Vol 1072276, Sht 0174305 16.26% LHC 0.0961 0.1099 0.1000 b:s 1.47:1
0731 Vol 0287546, Sht 0002000 00.70% LHC 0.1010 0.1069 0.1031 b:s 1:4.18
0730 Vol 0340156, Sht 0007100 02.09% LHC 0.1000 0.1087 0.1060 b:s 1:7.22
0729 Vol 1000682, Sht 0046100 04.61% LHC 0.1005 0.1169 0.1049 b:s 1:1.19
0728 Vol 2101508, Sht 0475523 22.61% LHC 0.1010 0.1270 0.1049 b:s 1:2.32
0725 Vol 1240998, Sht 0472689 38.09% LHC 0.1100 0.1329 0.1151 b:s 1:2.18[140]
0724 Vol 0357810, Sht 0174600 48.80% LHC 0.1270 0.1349 0.1300 b:s 1:1.04
0723 Vol 0099869, Sht 0043769 43.83% LHC 0.1300 0.1330 0.1324 b:s 1.63:1
0722 Vol 0169923, Sht 0023323 13.73% LHC 0.1300 0.1335 0.1310 b:s 1.02:1
0721 Vol 0546751, Sht 0155300 28.40% LHC 0.1300 0.1379 0.1301 b:s 1:1.91
0718 Vol 0321777, Sht 0168000 52.21% LHC 0.1330 0.1398 0.1398 b:s 1.85:1
0717 Vol 0126800, Sht 0011500 09.07% LHC 0.1193 0.1400 0.1350 b:s 1:3.01
0716 Vol 0452300, Sht 0058457 12.92% LHC 0.1333 0.1500 0.1399 b:s 1:2.46
0715 Vol 0078025, Sht 0036900 47.29% LHC 0.1362 0.1500 0.1400 b:s 1.04:1
0714 Vol 0104900, Sht 0063900 60.92% LHC 0.1394 0.1441 0.1400 b:s 10.66:1
0711 Vol 0138100, Sht 0027600 19.99% LHC 0.1390 0.1444 0.1406 b:s 1:3.67
0710 Vol 0075100, Sht 0000600 00.80% LHC 0.1391 0.1500 0.1402 b:s 1:4.96
0709 Vol 0336501, Sht 0110951 32.97% LHC 0.1401 0.1488 0.1488 b:s 1:1.77
0708 Vol 0219704, Sht 0093722 42.66% LHC 0.1377 0.1600 0.1450 b:s 1:1.12
0707 Vol 0500365, Sht 0176325 35.24% LHC 0.1350 0.1600 0.1400 b:s 1:2.50
0703 Vol 0170436, Sht 0013640 08.00% LHC 0.1400 0.1499 0.1499 b:s 1:1.95
0702 Vol 0073052, Sht 0037929 51.92% LHC 0.1417 0.1489 0.1450 b:s 2.65:1
0701 Vol 0326007, Sht 0089879 27.57% LHC 0.1400 0.1600 0.1411 b:s 1:3.38
[140] There was one aftermarket trade of 400K shares that FINRAreported daily short sales don't include. Adding that to the FINRA trade volume raises it from 1,240,998 to 1,640,998 and would lower the short percentage from 38.09% to 28.80%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves from 472,689 to 872,689 and the short percentage would be 53.18%.
[141] There's 10K fewer shares reported on the FINRA data than I have from ETrade Time and Sales panel and ADVFN Trades screen. I doublechecked both ADVFN and ETrade Pro time and sales and can not identify the extra 10K. My assumption is it must have been a cancled trade, incorrect reported trade size, or an erroneously doublereported trade. I've adjusted for this by subtracting 5K from both the buys and sells and removed 10K from the total volume.
[142] There was one AH trade for 10K shares that FINRAreported daily short sales don't include. Adding that to the FINRA trade volume raises it from 213,943 to 223,943 and would lower the short percentage from 15.95% to 15.24%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves from 34,130 to 44,130 and the short percentage would be 19.71%.
[143] There was one AH trade for 10K shares that FINRAreported daily short sales don't include. Adding that to the FINRA trade volume raises it from 627,170 to 637,170 and would lower the short percentage from 00.80% to 00.78%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves from 5,000 to 15,000 and the short percentage would be 2.35%.
[144] There were two AH trades for 10K shares that FINRAreported daily short sales don't include. Adding that to the FINRA trade volume raises it from 587,450 to 597,450 and would lower the short percentage from 09.70% to 09.54%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves from 57,000 to 67,000 and the short percentage would be 11.21%.
[145] There was one premarket trade for 24.5K shares that FINRAreported daily short sales don't include. Adding that to the FINRA trade volume raises it from 729,808 to 754,308 and would lower the short percentage from 06.67% to 06.46%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves from 48,701 to 73,201 and the short percentage would be 09.70%.
08/28/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 31, MinTrSz: 500, MaxTrSz: 336011, Vol: 884399, AvTrSz: 28529
Min. Pr: 0.0851, Max Pr: 0.0912, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.0908
# Buys, Shares: 7 44999, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.0900
# Sells, Shares: 24 839400, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.0908
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:18.65 (05.09% "buys"), DlyShts 11999 (01.36%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 1.43%
The single most important thing today, to my mind, was an 800K $0.0911 "crossing bid" entered when best offer was $0.0899. I commented on it at the time in the concentrator. The short thread begins with this comment. John says in that thread that it seems to be a process he's heard of called "sweeping the street" and also suggests that it indicates the market is returning to equilibrium. If "sweeping the street" is an indication of a natural return to "equilibrium", all I can say is that I learn something new almost every day.
I think it indicates the type of tools the financial industry can employ to accomplish the goals typical of investment bankers such as GS and others.
Importantly, I think, is that it gave us a view into sentiment. Think about the numbers and narrative that follow and I think one realizes just how much of a rush to the exit occurred when a bid suddenly appeared above "the market" at that time. The sell percentage provides a good summary  for the whole day 94.9% sells.
The $0.0911 bid took out all shares offered at $0.0899 and $0.0900 (three buys for 26K) and then sat there as the best bid, getting hammered. There was one $0.0912 sell that sneaked (for us "old school" types, "snuck") in there. Anyway, from 14:48 through 15:16 all 800K bid was satisfied as sells, but for those three buys.
During the time the $0.0911 bid was in place, the first two levels of offers it took out, $0.0899 and $0.0900 that were already in place, are classified as "buys". But keep in mind these offers were in place when the bid was at $0.0870. The 2K sell at $0.0912 was the only trade, other than those initial three below the $0.0911 bid, above the bid of $0.0911.
So, keeping all that in mind, of the 802K traded 26K (3.24%) were buys and 776K (96.76%) were sells.
At 15:16, when the sellers rush ended, bid dropped immediately to $0.0870/1 and remained there until 15:29 when a bid of $0.088 appeared. At 15:34 it improved to $0.0881 via the "ATDF Effect". The offer dropped first to $0.091 immediately at 15:16 and then $0.0909 at 15:26. In the last 34 minutes there were four trades, two buys at $0.0909 (the last trades of the day  our painting for the day) and two sells, one at $0.0871 and then one $0.0881. These four trades totaled 5,999 shares.
This had some potentially beneficial effects, other than just giving some anxious sellers a much better price than they may have expected. It raised the VWAP to $0.0908, a 3.70% improvement from what had been achieved just prior to the bid's appearance, a VWAP of $0.0876 on 76,400 shares traded with 15,000 buys (19.63%) and 61,400 sells (80.37%). Volume was improved to 884,399 traded, a 1,057.59% improvement in ~1.25 hours.
On the traditional TA charts a close the highest since the $0.0909 of 8/20 might cause some to suspect a bullish sentiment. Our close was also $0.0909, thanks to the paint crew hitting the offer with the last two trades, as they have been semireliably doing for a long time now.
It also produced a high that was right at my mediumterm descending trading channel resistance, which might cause some to think sentiment exists that will try and break above, if they happen to have a channel similar to mine.
With so many oscillators keying on the close, it also caused RSI, ADX related, accumulation/distribution, MFI, momentum, Williams %R and full stochastic to show upticks. All but full stochastic are still well below neutral though. The MACD histogram made a small move further above its neutral point to 0.002  not a screaming buy signal yet. It's been hovering just above neutral for some time, since around 8/11 and could not move higher in a sustained trend.
All this was reinforced with a rise in volume. After all, these folks DO know what they are doing!
My original nontraditional stuff disagrees with all this. Take a look at the charts and note the trend lower in all periods but for the 200day. Even that has begun to get affected in the last couple days though. My newer version is not quite so consistent because it's designed to include additional factors. But the three shorter periods are in agreement with the original's indications.
Yesterday I commented "... I'm getting the feeling that the "flat or slightly improved in the last and first weeks of the month" past behavior is going to have a tough time holding".
Well, strike that. If what is going on is what my TFH tells me, we will have no problem at all holding and even going higher over the next few days, at least.
My TFH also explains why the short percentage is where it's at too. This is not the normal market now. It's being driven by those with the means to drive it.
Regardless, I noted that we had begun challenging the $0.085 level where the 590K bid at $0.085, if it still exists, lays. I also said "I now worry even more than before that the $0.0850/1 level won't hold up. Low volume might allow it to hold, but if we get high volume due to these large trades, I think not". Pshaw! I had no idea of the forces that were gearing up to move the market. Even so, prior to the crossing bid, our low had been set at $0.0851.
The NITE 590K wasn't seen today. Since NITE was on the bid all day at a better price I'm still hopeful (changed from "it's likely") the bid is still there but just masked for now.
Our friendly paint crew gave us a close of $0.0909 today with two buys totaling 3,999 shares. The trades just before were sells at $0.0881 and $0.0871 for 1K each.
Yesterday volume was up 45% from the prior day and even with the 190K (see yesterday's post below) removed it was down only 10.54% to ~306K. Today volume was up 78.31%. But do keep in mind the numbers and narrative above and make your own judgment what volume might have been without an 800K crossing bid giving the sellers an unexpected "gift". I had been thinking that low volume would be the key to slowing our VWAP decline. I never considered the possibility of a large crossing bid. Regardless, here's VWAP percentage changes 8/14 through today, 8/28: 3.56%, 1.62%, 5.18%, 0.31%, 1.75%, 00.65%, 00.53%, 00.11%, 00.34%, +00.10% and +3.36%.
The directional correlation of buy percentage and daily short percentage may be back as buy percentage fell 74.81% to 5.1% and daily short percentage fell 60.42% to 1.36%. But I don't believe it using today's behavior. Further, I expect the ... "unusual behavior" to continue for a bit.
There were a couple outliers today. The day's low of $0.0851 occurred at 12:38, before the crossing bid appeared, on a sell of 2.5K shares. The day's high of $0.0912 came during the time the crossing bid was in effect, at 14:52 on a sell of 2K shares. It's unusual to have the day's high set on a sell I think, but I haven't bothered to check.
The Bollinger limits continue to converge with the upper limit still decreasing its rate of descent and moved from reading $0.1041 to $0.1027 today. The lower limit, which was flattening, made a small improvement today. It has moved from $0.0854, $0.0848, $0.0844, $0.0845 to $0.0847 today.
The descending channel resistance is ~$0.0912 today and the support is ~$0.067. Yesterday I said "Today we'll likely see price bump the descending resistance and fall back". Today it hit the resistance at 14:52, during the crossing bid time, and fell back.
Yesterday my original inflection point calculations moved from all six periods more negative to two marginally improved and four weaker. With the volume relatively low, it might have just been noise but two of the three shortest periods, the 5 and 25day, were weakening. Today, even with the crossing bid coming in, all six periods are weaker. The four shortest periods have hefty changes too.
The newer calculations held somewhat steadystate with the 5, 10, 25day periods all weaker but the 50, 100 and 200day periods are less weak. The net here is a three and three split. I am concerned that the three shortest periods, which should generally lead, are weaker.
I mentioned the buy percentage improvement yesterday, going from 18.9% to 20.2%, was hardly worth mentioning. Without the 190K trade it would have been 32.7%, a decent figure. Today even with the 800K crossing bid it dropped from 20.2% to 5.1%.
I noted yesterday "The slow decline in selling, which had temporarily reversed and increased selling, may be back. It's too soon to tell". From 8/14 onward the selling was 90.57%, 84.14%, 55.44%, 47.7%, 68.3%, 60.73%, 78.17%, 78.20%, 71.3% and 94.9% today.
For the following keep the "crossing bid" discussion in mind.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 0.12%, 1.33%, 03.36%, 78.31% and 29.42% respectively. Price spread today was 7.17% vs. 5.88%, 4.53%, 5.69%, 8.24%, 5.88%, 13.25%, 7.05%, 11.74% and 19.89% on prior days.
Note that the $0.0911 "crossing bid" accounted for 100% of the day's "larger trades".
The larger trades (>= 15K) occurred on 5 of the 31 trades, 16.13%. These 751,500 shares were 84.97% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0911. None of the larger trades were buys or unknowns.
Note that the $0.0911 "crossing bid" accounted for 7.5K, only 5.64%, of the day's "smaller trades".
The other 26 trades, 83.87% of the day's trades, traded 132,899 shares, 15.03% of the days volume. The VWAP was $0.0888. 7 trades, 26.92%, were buys and accounted for 44,999 shares, 33.86% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0900. 19 trades, 73.08%, were sells and accounted for 44,999 shares, 33.86% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0900. 19 trades, 73.08%, were sells and accounted for 87,900 shares, 66.14% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0881.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes. Note the period ending 15:16 contains the 800K (est.) crossing trade entered at ~14:48 for $0.0911 when the offer was $0.0899. The offers immediately adjusted upward to $0.09 and then $0.094. When the 800K had been satisfied at 15:16 offer dropped back to $0.091 and 10 minutes later to $0.0909.
09:3311:51: 019000 shrs, 02.15% of vol, VWAP $0.0871, 000.0% buys
12:3813:07: 033400 shrs, 03.78% of vol, VWAP $0.0881, 044.9% buys
13:4114:44: 024000 shrs, 02.71% of vol, VWAP $0.0871, 000.0% buys
14:4815:16: 802000 shrs, 90.68% of vol, VWAP $0.0911, 003.2% buys
15:2615:53: 005999 shrs, 00.68% of vol, VWAP $0.0898, 066.7% buys
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary price range. Note the $0.0880$0.0889 range contains the 190K sell for $0.08887. Note the last price range resulted from the 800K crossing bid for $0.0911. The difference in volume was due to some shares being taken at the lower price range and there was one 2K trade taken at the highest price in the period, $0.0912.
$0.0851$0.0851: 002500 shrs, 00.28% of vol, VWAP $0.0851, 000.0% buys
$0.0860$0.0863: 011500 shrs, 01.30% of vol, VWAP $0.0860, 000.0% buys
$0.0870$0.0875: 038400 shrs, 04.34% of vol, VWAP $0.0871, 000.0% buys
$0.0880$0.0899: 037000 shrs, 04.18% of vol, VWAP $0.0893, 070.3% buys
$0.0900$0.0912: 794999 shrs, 89.89% of vol, VWAP $0.0911, 002.4% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line. See the 8/15 EOD post for some exceptional conditions that were seen.
08/13 $0.1005 +00.74% 18.9%
08/14 $0.0969 03.56% 09.4%
08/15 $0.0953 01.62% 15.5%
08/18 $0.0904 05.18% 43.8%
08/19 $0.0901 00.31% 37.1%
08/20 $0.0885 01.75% 51.3%
08/21 $0.0880 00.65% 31.7%
08/22 $0.0875 00.53% 39.3%
08/25 $0.0874 00.11% 21.7%
08/26 $0.0877 +00.34% 18.9%
08/27 $0.0878 +00.10% 20.2%
08/28 $0.0908 +03.36% 05.1%
Here's my newer inflection point calculations. We have transitioned from the two shorter periods to the three shorter periods showing the early stages of what I had expected would be some marginal weakening. I noted yesterday "The 25day period is preparing to join the trend, going from marginal improvement to flat today". It did that. On a (not much) better note, the 100day moved from weakening and showed a very small improvement.
_5day_ 10day_ _25day_ _50day_ _100day_ _200day_
127.20 0219.59 0478.65 0796.09 02014.51 05687.78
213.56 0346.24 0590.92 0929.86 02269.98 06180.82
228.96 0302.19 0717.36 1085.17 02658.70 07442.64
218.93 0282.36 0691.61 1072.74 02349.09 06946.85
175.00 0284.99 0657.58 1053.02 02330.95 06797.51
155.54 0288.76 0636.48 1006.68 02154.14 06267.86
065.98 0278.96 0639.05 0982.02 02075.97 05875.84
079.89 0279.15 0624.84 0978.52 01917.93 05424.44
089.12 0281.96 0624.81 0957.18 01872.24 05205.92
111.30 0260.00 0638.62 0929.50 01879.95 05021.03
154.46 0276.71 0646.30 0909.54 01655.17 04243.42
"Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection point changes here are in the latest daily post above.
08/27/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 39, MinTrSz: 500, MaxTrSz: 190000, Vol: 496000, AvTrSz: 12718
Min. Pr: 0.0850, Max Pr: 0.0900, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.0878
# Buys, Shares: 11 100200, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.0887
# Sells, Shares: 23 353500, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.0876
# Unkn, Shares: 5 42300, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0878
Buy:Sell 1:3.53 (20.20% "buys"), DlyShts 17000 (03.43%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 4.81%
John was kind enough to inform me that the warrant conversions are done and those shares would show up in FINRA short reports in this comment. So that's one thing I can stop mulling.
It does raise another concern though. With the short percentage being at such a low average of 15.02% this month indicating that it's not a lot of PIPErs selling, selling percentage being so high, 66.36% for this month, I have to guess that the selling pressure is coming from retail investors.
Combined with everything else I'm seeing in the data, I'm getting the felling that the "flat or slightly improved in the last and first weeks of the month" past behavior is going to have a tough time holding. As I had mentioned, I was uncertain if the pattern would hold, albeit I was worried for the wrong reason apparently.
We have now started challenging the $0.085 level where the 590K bid at $0.085, if it still exists, lays. If we continue seeing these large blocks account for such a high percentage of daily volume, I now worry even more than before that the $0.0850/1 level won't hold up. Low volume might allow it to hold, but if we get high volume due to these large trades, I think not.
The NITE 590K wasn't seen today. Since NITE was on the bid all day at a better price I am hopeful (changed from "it's likely") the bid is still there but just masked for now.
Our friendly paint crew gave us a close of $0.0897 today with a buy. If they had been goofing off the close would have been $0.0850 (one of several 500 share "lures" to the downside today), which would have been at the day's low. Instead we got a close 5.53% above the two prior sells of $0.0850 for 500 shares each, and 1.13% above the 190K sell for $0.0887 just before them.
I noted yesterday "After two days of increased volume, the second due to several very large trades mostly, I can't say today's 55% volume decline is surprising or concerning". Today it was up 45% from yesterday and even with the 190K removed it's down only 10.54% to ~306K. My thought that lower volume was needed to slow our price descent seems to be in play still. Here's VWAP percentage changes 8/13 through today, 8/28: 0.74%, 3.56%, 1.62%, 5.18%, 0.31%, 1.75%, 00.65%, 00.53%, 00.11%, 00.34% and +00.10%.
The directional correlation of buy percentage and daily short percentage is still broken as buy percentage improved and daily short percentage fell. This suggests some underlying condition changed or was changing.
There were no outofhours trades today.
There were no price outliers today. The was a trade size outlier though  a 190K sell for $0.0887 at 15:37 representing 38.31% of the day's volume. Without this trade volume would be 306,000 shares and VWAP would be $0.0872 instead of $0.0878. There's another 10K at the same price 27 seconds earlier that I think was part of the order. I think this because all the other trades in that timeframe were $0.0880  $0.0850 before it and $0.0850  $0.0897 (today's paint stripe) after it.
On the traditional TA front, the low finally gave up holding around the $0.086 area and went to $0.0850 today. The highs had been getting lower six of the prior seven days, but today was 1/100th of a penny higher than yesterday's  we take what we can get. The oscillators I watch continue mixed with ADX related continuing flat, full stochastic still curling up and getting above neutral, and MFI continuing to marginally improve. RSI made a very small improvement today and is struggling to stay out of oversold, momentum deteriorated from flat to weaker, and Williams %R stopped weakening and made a small improvement. Accumulation/distribution is still in a very slow marginal up trend. No help in prognostication resides in these readings right now.
The Bollinger limits continue to converge with the upper limit still decreasing its rate of descent and is reading $0.1041 today. The lower limit continues to flatten, moving from $0.0854 to $0.0848 to $0.0844 and $0.0845 today.
The descending channel resistance is ~$0.0925 today and the support is ~$0.069. Today we'll likely see price bump the descending resistance and fall back.
As before, all in all the traditional TA stuff suggested no change  continued slow weakening seems to be the order of the day.
Yesterday my original inflection point calculations had all six periods more negative. Today two are marginally improved and four are weaker. With the volume relatively low, might just be noise but two of the three shortest periods, the 5 and 25day, are weakening.
The newer calculations are in a similar state with the 5, 25 and 100day periods weaker. But the net here is a three and three split.
So there's little here with positive indications.
ARCA was absent today.
Buy percentage improved today, going from 18.9% to 20.2%  hardly worth mentioning. Without the 190K trade it would have been 32.7%, a decent figure. The slow decline in selling, which had temporarily reversed and increased selling, may be back. It's too soon to tell. From 8/14 onward the selling was 90.57%, 84.14%, 55.44%, 47.7%, 68.3%, 60.73%, 78.17%, 78.20% and 71.3% today.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 1.16%, 0.11%, 00.10%, 45.00% and 8.33% respectively. Price spread today was 5.88% vs. 4.53%, 5.69%, 8.24%, 5.88%, 13.25%, 7.05%, 11.74%, 19.89% and 9.38% on prior days.
The larger trades (>= 15K) occurred on 6 of the 39 trades, 15.38%. These 325,200 shares were 65.56% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0881. 1 of the larger trades, 16.67%, was a buy of 35,200 shares, 10.82% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0900. 5 of the larger trades, 83.33%, were sells of 290,000 (included the 190K at $0.0887) shares, 89.18% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0879.
The other 33 trades, 84.62% of the day's trades, traded 170,800 shares, 34.44% of the days volume. The VWAP was $0.0872. 10 trades, 30.30%, were buys and accounted for 65,000 shares, 38.06% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0879. 18 trades, 54.55%, were sells and accounted for 63,500 shares, 37.18% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0859. 5 trades, 15.15%, were sells and accounted for 42,300 shares, 24.77% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0878.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes. Note the period of 15:37 contains the day's largest trade, a sell of 190K for $0.887.
09:3009:30: 050000 shrs, 10.08% of vol, VWAP $0.0894, 070.4% buys
09:4610:56: 020500 shrs, 04.13% of vol, VWAP $0.0860, 000.0% buys
11:0111:57: 085500 shrs, 17.24% of vol, VWAP $0.0864, 011.7% buys
12:1113:02: 034500 shrs, 06.96% of vol, VWAP $0.0867, 000.0% buys
13:1614:03: 078500 shrs, 15.83% of vol, VWAP $0.0870, 056.1% buys
14:0715:11: 003000 shrs, 00.60% of vol, VWAP $0.0853, 000.0% buys
15:2015:35: 022000 shrs, 04.44% of vol, VWAP $0.0877, 000.0% buys
15:3715:37: 200000 shrs, 40.32% of vol, VWAP $0.0887, 005.0% buys
15:4915:56: 002000 shrs, 00.40% of vol, VWAP $0.0874, 050.0% buys
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary price range. Note the $0.0880$0.0889 range contains the 190K sell for $0.08887.
$0.0850$0.0859: 024500 shrs, 04.94% of vol, VWAP $0.0857, 069.4% buys
$0.0860$0.0861: 136000 shrs, 27.42% of vol, VWAP $0.0860, 000.0% buys
$0.0875$0.0879: 027500 shrs, 05.54% of vol, VWAP $0.0876, 036.4% buys
$0.0880$0.0889: 261800 shrs, 52.78% of vol, VWAP $0.0886, 010.3% buys
$0.0890$0.0897: 011000 shrs, 02.22% of vol, VWAP $0.0891, 100.0% buys
$0.0900$0.0900: 035200 shrs, 07.10% of vol, VWAP $0.0900, 100.0% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line. See the 8/15 EOD post for some exceptional conditions that were seen.
08/12 $0.0998 01.21% 31.5%
08/13 $0.1005 +00.74% 18.9%
08/14 $0.0969 03.56% 09.4%
08/15 $0.0953 01.62% 15.5%
08/18 $0.0904 05.18% 43.8%
08/19 $0.0901 00.31% 37.1%
08/20 $0.0885 01.75% 51.3%
08/21 $0.0880 00.65% 31.7%
08/22 $0.0875 00.53% 39.3%
08/25 $0.0874 00.11% 21.7%
08/26 $0.0877 +00.34% 18.9%
08/27 $0.0878 +00.10% 20.2%
Here's my newer inflection point calculations. The two shorter periods continue showing the early stages of what I expect will be some marginal weakening. The 25day period is preparing to join the trend, going from marginal improvement to flat today.
_5day_ 10day_ _25day_ _50day_ _100day_ _200day_
090.71 0175.62 0379.23 0653.06 01563.56 04442.46
127.20 0219.59 0478.65 0796.09 02014.51 05687.78
213.56 0346.24 0590.92 0929.86 02269.98 06180.82
228.96 0302.19 0717.36 1085.17 02658.70 07442.64
218.93 0282.36 0691.61 1072.74 02349.09 06946.85
175.00 0284.99 0657.58 1053.02 02330.95 06797.51
155.54 0288.76 0636.48 1006.68 02154.14 06267.86
065.98 0278.96 0639.05 0982.02 02075.97 05875.84
079.89 0279.15 0624.84 0978.52 01917.93 05424.44
089.12 0281.96 0624.81 0957.18 01872.24 05205.92
111.30 0260.00 0638.62 0929.50 01879.95 05021.03
"Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection point changes here are are in the latest daily post above.
08/26/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 24, MinTrSz: 693, MaxTrSz: 81000, Vol: 342069, AvTrSz: 14253
Min. Pr: 0.0860, Max Pr: 0.0899, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.0877
# Buys, Shares: 9 64569, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.0897
# Sells, Shares: 12 267500, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.0872
# Unkn, Shares: 3 10000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0882
Buy:Sell 1:4.14 (18.88% "buys"), DlyShts 15693 (04.59%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 5.87%
The $0.085/6 support continues holding so far. If the trend of flat or slightly improved prices in the last and first week of each month is still active, $0.085/6 should hold through this and next week. We don't know if the trend is still active though. This is because I wonder if there's some warrant conversions at the new 1.7 ratio going on here with selling restrictions much tighter than in the past.
Today's drop in buy percentage is not yet worrisome because it was due to just a few large sells skewing the ratio on a lowvolume day. 8 of the 24 trades accounted for 79.19% of day's volume and 7 were sells of 240,500 shares, 70.31% of today's volume. It is something to keep an eye on though, especially in light of today being the second consecutive day of dropping buy percentage, the low daily short sales percentages, and the possibility that warrant conversions might be involved, which I'll never know for sure.
The NITE 590K wasn't seen today. Since NITE was on the bid all day at a better price it's likely the bid is still there but just masked for now.
Our friendly paint crew gave us a close of $0.0888 today. If they had been goofing off the close would have been $0.0860, within the price range that accounted for most of our trading today.
After two days of increased volume, the second due to several very large trades mostly, I can't say today's 55% volume decline is surprising or concerning. We've just moved to a slightly below normal level. My thought that lower volume was needed to slow our price descent seems to be in play still. Here's VWAP percentage changes 8/13 through today, 8/22: 0.74%, 3.56%, 1.62%, 5.18%, 0.31%, 1.75%, 00.65%, 00.53%, 00.11% and 00.34%.
Yesterday the directional correlation of buy percentage and daily short percentage seemed broken as buy percentage dropped and daily short percentage rose. This suggested some underlying condition changed or was changing. Today buy percentage and daily short sales percentage dropped. It's just one day though so we'll need to wait and see if the normal behavior seems to have returned or not.
There were no outofhours trades today.
There were no price outliers today.
On the traditional TA front there's not a lot to talk about. Our low is still holding up well around the $0.086 area even as the highs are getting lower  six of the last seven days. The oscillators I watch continue mixed with ADX related moving from marginally improved to absolutely flat today, full stochastic still curling up (slowly) and MFI continuing to marginally improve. RSI weakened and is struggling to stay out of oversold, momentum was almost flat, and Williams %R weakened some more. Accumulation/distribution is still in a very slow marginal up trend. No help in prognostication resides in these readings right now.
The Bollinger limits continue to converge with the upper limit still decreasing its rate of descent and is reading $0.1059 today. The lower limit continues to flatten, moving from $0.0854 to $0.0848 to $0.0844 today. Midpoint would be ~$0.0952 today, about a half penny above the top of our trading today.
The descending channel resistance is ~$0.095 today and the support is ~$0.072. So our current trading range remains slightly above the midrange.
All in all, the traditional TA stuff suggests no change  continued slow weakening seems to be the order of the day. However, if volume weakens further, our descent could halt ... or become much more volatile.
Two day's back I noted my nontraditional stuff's move towards less negativity broke a little bit in the original version, which went to three improved and three weaker from the prior day's five periods marginally improved and one minimally weaker. Yesterday the fiveday went from much more positive to more negative by a noticeable amount and four of the other five periods weakened with only the 200day showing a small improvement.
Today all six periods are more negative. Not by large amounts, but not small either. This bears watching.
Similarly, the newer calculations, which had been, in aggregate, improving for four days, yesterday signaled a coming change as it went mixed with the two shortest periods weakening while the longer periods continued improving, marginally. Today the 5 and 10day periods are weaker, the 25day is flat and the 50, 100 and 200day periods are still showing a small improvement. The shorter periods are leading and more sensitive to change than the longer periods. This makes me think the turn to all weakening will complete in a couple days. However, they are all small changes, so I could end up wrong, and even if not the indications may be weak.
ARCA was absent today.
Buy percentage dropped today. Most of this was due to the large blocks mentioned above. The slow decline in selling has (temporarily?) reversed as we now have two consecutive days of higher percentages. From 8/13 onward the selling was 81.10%, 90.57%, 84.14%, 55.44%, 47.7%, 68.3%, 60.73%, 78.17% and 78.20% today.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 0.12%, 1.21%, 00.34%, 55.32% and 88.61% respectively. Price spread today was 4.53% vs. 5.69%, 8.24%, 5.88%, 13.25%, 7.05%, 11.74%, 19.89%, 9.38% and 8.85% on prior days.
The larger trades (>= 15K) occurred on 8 of the 24 trades, 33.33%. These 270,876 shares were 79.19% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0876. 1 of the larger trades, 12.50%, was a buy of 30,376 shares, 11.21% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0898. 7 of the larger trades, 87.50%, were sells of 240,500 shares, 88.79% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0873.
The other 16 trades, 66.67% of the day's trades, traded 71,193 shares, 20.81% of the days volume. The VWAP was $0.0883. 8 trades, 50.00%, were buys and accounted for 34,193 shares, 48.03% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0896. 5 trades, 31.25%, were sells and accounted for 27,000 shares, 37.93% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0867. 3 trades, 18.75%, were sells and accounted for 10,000 shares, 14.05% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0882.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes. Note the period ending 13:09 contains the day's largest trade, a sell of 81K $0.0890. The period ending 15:07 has the second largest trade, a sell of 52K for $0.0865.
09:3009:58: 046500 shrs, 13.59% of vol, VWAP $0.0875, 021.5% buys
10:5411:33: 017193 shrs, 05.03% of vol, VWAP $0.0889, 053.5% buys
12:0213:09: 141376 shrs, 41.33% of vol, VWAP $0.0886, 021.5% buys
13:1215:07: 102000 shrs, 29.82% of vol, VWAP $0.0864, 000.0% buys
15:3515:35: 010000 shrs, 02.92% of vol, VWAP $0.0894, 100.0% buys
15:5415:59: 025000 shrs, 07.31% of vol, VWAP $0.0866, 020.0% buys
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary price range. Note the first range contains the 52K sell for $0.0855 and the last range has the 81K sell for $0.0890.
$0.0860$0.0866: 176500 shrs, 51.60% of vol, VWAP $0.0864, 000.0% buys
$0.0870$0.0870: 010000 shrs, 02.92% of vol, VWAP $0.0870, 000.0% buys
$0.0882$0.0888: 015000 shrs, 04.39% of vol, VWAP $0.0884, 033.3% buys
$0.0890$0.0899: 140569 shrs, 41.09% of vol, VWAP $0.0893, 042.4% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line. See the 8/15 EOD post for some exceptional conditions that were seen.
08/11 $0.1010 +05.52% 23.0%
08/12 $0.0998 01.21% 31.5%
08/13 $0.1005 +00.74% 18.9%
08/14 $0.0969 03.56% 09.4%
08/15 $0.0953 01.62% 15.5%
08/18 $0.0904 05.18% 43.8%
08/19 $0.0901 00.31% 37.1%
08/20 $0.0885 01.75% 51.3%
08/21 $0.0880 00.65% 31.7%
08/22 $0.0875 00.53% 39.3%
08/25 $0.0874 00.11% 21.7%
08/26 $0.0877 +00.34% 18.9%
Here's my newer inflection point calculations. The two shorter periods continue showing the early stages of what I expect will be some marginal weakening. The 25day period is preparing to join the trend, going from marginal improvement to flat today.
_5day_ 10day_ _25day_ _50day_ _100day_ _200day_
048.11 0159.69 0343.40 0592.95 01467.36 04294.03
090.71 0175.62 0379.23 0653.06 01563.56 04442.46
127.20 0219.59 0478.65 0796.09 02014.51 05687.78
213.56 0346.24 0590.92 0929.86 02269.98 06180.82
228.96 0302.19 0717.36 1085.17 02658.70 07442.64
218.93 0282.36 0691.61 1072.74 02349.09 06946.85
175.00 0284.99 0657.58 1053.02 02330.95 06797.51
155.54 0288.76 0636.48 1006.68 02154.14 06267.86
065.98 0278.96 0639.05 0982.02 02075.97 05875.84
079.89 0279.15 0624.84 0978.52 01917.93 05424.44
089.12 0281.96 0624.81 0957.18 01872.24 05205.92
"Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection point changes here are in the latest daily post above.
08/25/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 53, MinTrSz: 500, MaxTrSz: 120000, Vol: 765535, AvTrSz: 14444
Min. Pr: 0.0861, Max Pr: 0.0910, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.0874
# Buys, Shares: 20 166135, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.0887
# Sells, Shares: 32 598400, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.0871
# Unkn, Shares: 1 1000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0888
Buy:Sell 1:3.60 (21.70% "buys"), DlyShts 137750 (17.99%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 23.02%
The uncertainty for me continues another change is added to what was concerning me yesterday. The directional correlation between buy percentage and daily short percentage may be broken ... or not. The presence of the three very large trades today may have had an effect, as may have the outofhours seen the prior days. I still don't know if these are symptoms of shortterm or longerterm changes in underlying behavior.
I still wonder if there's some warrant conversions at the new 1.7 ratio going on here. If that's the case, I guess these odd effects will continue for quite some time as the selling restrictions are much tighter than in the past.
The $0.085/6 support is holding so far. If the trend of flat or slightly improved prices in the last and first week of each month is still active the $0.085/6 should hold through this and next week. It's still a wait and see time for now.
The 600K $0.085 bid from NITE is now 590K. It remains the best hope that we won't go below that. But we haven't seen bids stacking up at or above that price. We have seen "ad hoc" bids coming in intraday above it which will disappear easily if much weakness appears. So we can't count on them being around.
We have had early signs additional support may be lining up at that level with BNCH showing a 20K bid, and holding there, and ETRF a 50K bid which was quickly moved up. But we've seen no additional build of quantity for quite a few days now.
We had a small second bump up in volume today, but ~570K, 74.45%, is from larger trades, of which 55.45% of those were from three trades of 96K, 100K and 120K. The smaller trades accounted for only 195.6K. Regardless, my thought that lower volume was needed to slow our price descent seems to be in play still. Here's VWAP percentage changes 8/13 through today, 8/22: 0.74%, 3.56%, 1.62%, 5.18%, 0.31%, 1.75%, 00.65%, 00.53% and 00.11%.
The directional correlation of buy percentage and daily short percentage seems broken for the moment. Buy percentage dropped and daily short percentage rose today. This suggests that some underlying condition has changed or is changing. It will bear watching. I'll also want to see if price stabilizes as daily short percentage moves into normal ranges, if it does.
There were no outofhours trades today, so we can at least know the numbers are correct.
There were really no outliers today. The two sells for $0.091 totaling 10.5K set the days high, but the next lower price of $0.09 had multiple trades and decent volume and included only two of the larger trades, 40K and 15K. So $0.0910 doesn't seem too abnormal.
On the traditional TA front, the hammer has thus far played out as Bulkowski suggested  sort of random in reliability and a weak improvement. Today we gave up the higher high of yesterday, had a slightly lower VWAP and essentially flat volume with a narrowed spread. Move along, move along  nothing to see here.
The oscillators I watch were a mixed bag today, with ADX related marginally improved, full stochastic curling up and MFI continuing to improve. RSI, momentum and Williams %R weakened a wee bit. Accumulation/distribution is in a very slow marginal up trend. All in all, more or less normal.
The Bollinger band upper limit had started to decrease its rate of descent and is reading $0.1071 today. The lower limit is starting to flatten, moving from $0.0854 to $0.0848 today. Midpoint would be ~$0.0912, just above the top of our trading today.
The descending channel resistance is ~$0.097 today and the support is ~$0.074. So our current trading range is now slightly above the midrange.
Yesterday I noted my nontraditional stuff's move towards less negativity broke a little bit in the original version, which went to three improved and three weaker from the prior day's five periods marginally improved and one minimally weaker. The good news was that the 5day period had a large positive move while the weaker periods had very small moves. Well, so much for that! Today the fiveday went more negative by a noticeable amount and four of the other five periods weakened with only the 200day showing a small improvement.
The newer calculations had five improved periods and only one weaker and had been, in aggregate, improving for four days. Today it signaled a coming change as it went mixed with the two shortest periods weakening while the longer periods continued improving, marginally.
ARCA was absent today.
Buy percentage dropped today. A lot of this was due to the three large blocks mentioned. Regardless, our slow decline in selling at least took a pause today. From 8/7 onward the selling was 58.75%, 75.21%, 76.95%, 68.46%, 81.10%, 90.57%, 84.14%, 55.44%, 47.7%, 68.3%, 60.73% and 78.2% today.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 1.29%, 1.09%, 00.11%, 1.49% and 182.85% respectively. Price spread today was 5.69% vs. 8.24%, 5.88%, 13.25%, 7.05%, 11.74%, 19.89%, 9.38%, 8.85% and 21.89% on prior days.
Note the several larger trades, mentioned above in the volume discussion, had a big effect on the following.
The larger trades (>= 15K) occurred on 11 of the 53 trades, 20.75%. These 569,917 shares were 74.45% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0871. 3 of the larger trades, 27.27%, were buys of 67,000 shares, 11.76% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0887. 8 of the larger trades, 72.73%, were sells of 502,917 shares, 88.24% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0869.
The other 42 trades, 79.25% of the day's trades, traded 195618 shares, 25.55% of the days volume. The VWAP was $0.0882. 17 trades, 40.48%, were buys and accounted for 99135 shares, 50.68% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0886. 24 trades, 57.14%, were sells and accounted for 95483 shares, 48.81% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0878. 1 trade, 2.38%, was a sell and accounted for 1000 shares, 0.51% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0888.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes. Note the several larger trades, mentioned above in the volume discussion, had a big effect on the following.
09:3010:01: 074000 shrs, 09.67% of vol, VWAP $0.0901, 030.4% buys
10:3611:25: 035500 shrs, 04.64% of vol, VWAP $0.0899, 097.2% buys
11:4012:36: 166400 shrs, 21.74% of vol, VWAP $0.0876, 043.3% buys
12:5813:56: 023500 shrs, 03.07% of vol, VWAP $0.0867, 000.0% buys
14:1114:50: 116320 shrs, 15.19% of vol, VWAP $0.0876, 008.9% buys
15:0015:50: 028815 shrs, 03.76% of vol, VWAP $0.0871, 089.6% buys
15:5615:56: 320000 shrs, 41.80% of vol, VWAP $0.0864, 000.0% buys
15:5915:59: 001000 shrs, 00.13% of vol, VWAP $0.0890, 100.0% buys
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary price range. Note the several larger trades, mentioned above in the volume discussion, had a big effect on the following.
$0.0861$0.0867: 225500 shrs, 29.46% of vol, VWAP $0.0862, 000.0% buys
$0.0870$0.0877: 380150 shrs, 49.66% of vol, VWAP $0.0872, 016.1% buys
$0.0880$0.0899: 061385 shrs, 08.02% of vol, VWAP $0.0892, 094.3% buys
$0.0900$0.0900: 088000 shrs, 11.50% of vol, VWAP $0.0900, 053.4% buys
$0.0910$0.0910: 010500 shrs, 01.37% of vol, VWAP $0.0910, 000.0% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line. See the 8/15 EOD post for some exceptional conditions that were seen.
08/08 $0.0957 01.48% 24.8%
08/11 $0.1010 +05.52% 23.0%
08/12 $0.0998 01.21% 31.5%
08/13 $0.1005 +00.74% 18.9%
08/14 $0.0969 03.56% 09.4%
08/15 $0.0953 01.62% 15.5%
08/18 $0.0904 05.18% 43.8%
08/19 $0.0901 00.31% 37.1%
08/20 $0.0885 01.75% 51.3%
08/21 $0.0880 00.65% 31.7%
08/22 $0.0875 00.53% 39.3%
08/25 $0.0874 00.11% 21.7%
Here's my newer inflection point calculations. As mentioned above, we broke our "trend to slower weakening", with the two shorter periods showing the early stages of what I expect will be some marginal weakening.
_5day_ 10day_ _25day_ _50day_ _100day_ _200day_
043.90 0135.30 0287.64 0508.36 01119.94 03518.08
048.11 0159.69 0343.40 0592.95 01467.36 04294.03
090.71 0175.62 0379.23 0653.06 01563.56 04442.46
127.20 0219.59 0478.65 0796.09 02014.51 05687.78
213.56 0346.24 0590.92 0929.86 02269.98 06180.82
228.96 0302.19 0717.36 1085.17 02658.70 07442.64
218.93 0282.36 0691.61 1072.74 02349.09 06946.85
175.00 0284.99 0657.58 1053.02 02330.95 06797.51
155.54 0288.76 0636.48 1006.68 02154.14 06267.86
065.98 0278.96 0639.05 0982.02 02075.97 05875.84
079.89 0279.15 0624.84 0978.52 01917.93 05424.44
"Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection point changes here are in the latest daily post above.
08/22/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 60, MinTrSz: 217, MaxTrSz: 110000, Vol: 754308, AvTrSz: 12572
Min. Pr: 0.0850, Max Pr: 0.0920, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.0875
# Buys, Shares: 28 296202, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.0891
# Sells, Shares: 32 458106, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.0865
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:1.55 (39.27% "buys"), DlyShts 48701 (06.46%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 10.63%
This is a time of extreme uncertainty for me as there's some things that may be going on that are invisible. Some of the behaviors I rely on have shown some breaking of trends. I don't know if these are symptoms of shortterm or longerterm changes in underlying behavior.
We've had two consecutive closes below $0.09 now so that support is finally officially broken in traditional TA terms. We are now reliant on the $0.085/6 support, which was already penetrated with an intraday low of $0.083 on 8/20. Fortunately, at least I hope, is that the trend of flat or slightly improved prices in the last and first week of each month is still active. Since we did have a trend lower in the middle weeks of this month, began in earnest on 8/15, that's some indication that the trend is still active. It's a wait and see time for now. I'm concerned, as noted next, that some of those warrant conversions at the new 1.7 ratio may affect this trend.
Two consecutive days of outofhours trades and another AH trade on 8/13 makes me wonder if these are the PIPErs converting warrants at the new 1.7/warrant rate and making their new lower daily limit by completing their trades out of hours. We used to see this with Quercus who seemed to be honoring an apparent selfimposed 10% of daily volume limit. I'll never know if the PIPErs are doing this but it seemed worth a mention. If this is the case, we might see our last and first week behavior altered.
Regardless, I continue to think there's a decent chance that for the moment the $0.085/6 potential support will hold up, due to negative signs weakening and next week we go into the period of the month when we've traditionally seen prices stabilize and even improve slightly sometimes.
The best hope that it may hold strongly remains with the 600K $0.085 bid from NITE. That wasn't seen today but that's likely because NITE had a better bid in all day, except possibly during the single $0.0850 sell at 9:31:50 of 10K, where I could have missed the "flash" of the 600K if it occurred.
We have early signs additional support may be lining up at that level with BNCH showing a 20K bid and ETRF a 50K bid. Only BNCH held steady as ETRF moved their 50K to $0.086 at 09:52, a good thing. We have seen stronger potential support building at $0.085 before with more quantity from more MMs on one prior day but most of them haven't since been seen, possibly because they are constantly masked by better bids since that time or the bids have been improved, both good things.
We had a bump in volume today, but it's still in the more typical range, well below the 1.5MM range seen Friday 8/15 and Monday 8/18. I said I thought lower volume would be needed to slow our descent. It seems to be taking effect. Here's VWAP percentage changes 8/13 through today, 8/22: 0.74%, 3.56%, 1.62%, 5.18%, 0.31%, 1.75%, 00.65% and 00.53%.
A couple days back I said I expect a sizable jump up in the daily short percentage either today or tomorrow if volume remains low and/or spread stays relatively "tight". Well, volume has been moving up while spread has been tightening. I'm not sure what to expect under these conditions. Add in the trades AH yesterday and premarket today, which may both have some (large?) short volume, and I can't even have a good take on what the short percentage is really doing.
That's why yesterday's and today's percentage may be inaccurate. Today, 8/22, there was one premarket trade for 24.5K shares that FINRAreported daily short sales don't include. Adding that to the FINRA trade volume raises it from 729,808 to 754,308 and would lower the short percentage from 06.67% to 06.46%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves from 48,701 to 73,201 and the short percentage would be 09.70%. We'll never know if any of those were short sales.
If my directional correlation with buy percentage is still applicable, the short percentage should have seen a small tick up as the buy percentage moved from 31.71% to 39.27%. Instead we got a move from 9.54% yesterday to 6.46% today. This breaking of the typical correlation with buy percentage makes me suspect there were some large number of shorts in that 24.5K.
There were really no outliers today. There's some on the high end I could suspect because they were only one buy each: $0.0900 for 20K, $0.0917 for 10K and $0.0920 for 4K. Below those most prices had multiple trades, starting at $0.0899, $0.0898, $0.0896 and $0.0890. With the three highest trades being close to those lower prices I can't comfortably call them outliers based on price.
However, VWAP of the other buys around them, 9:32  10:48, was $0.0889, making these trades "out of character" for the period at +1.22%, +3.13% and +3.47% above VWAP for the other buys. But with the odd trading today, 50.25% of day's volume from 9:30 to 10:00 and a 24.5K premarket sell, I don't think expecting normal behavior regarding these three high prices is reasonable.
On the traditional TA front, yesterday I noted "we had a very narrow spread that resulted in a hammer, indicating a bullish reversal 60% of the time, only a bit better than random ..." and mentioned some other facts from Bulkowski. Using the high and the volume increase, we could say we had a reversal since the high was +2.22% and the close was 0.11%. I think that would be stretching it though. I'm leery also because the VWAP was 00.53%. All this would be more in line with Bulkowski's admonition that the appreciation was generally not all that robust. Of course, we have to give it at least a few days to play out before judging this.
We broke the string of four consecutive days of lower highs with two of those days with lower lows. Our low was flat and our high was +2.22%. Today was the third consecutive day of rising volume. But we have seven consecutive days of lower VWAP. The thought that lower volume would help slow the descent seems to be accurate thus far though. See the "Some daytoday VWAP changes" paragraph below and note the recent VWAP percentage changes.
The Bollinger band lower extreme, $0.0846 yesterday, had contacted our low. Today it exceeded the $0.085 low with a reading of $0.0854. The upper limit, still falling rapidly, reads $0.108 today.
This condition offers two possibilities. A tendency to revert to the midpoint, today $0.0967, may show up and is the desired outcome. The less desirable outcome is that our price range remains low and the Bollinger lower limit makes a small downward adjustment, leading to a more quickly falling midpoint.
The descending channel resistance is ~$0.10 today and the support is ~$0.0745. So our current trading range remains roughly in the middle right now. The potential support from the recent intraday lows of $0.0850/1 and $0.086 still seems to be having effect now.
Most of the oscillators I watch were slightly weaker today, the exception being MFI which exited being essentially flat in oversold and got out of oversold with a 21.79 reading, just a bit over a point out of oversold. RSI cracked and showed enough movement lower today that I can't consider it "flattish" anymore. But the weakening so far is very, very slow and just above oversold at 31.01.
My nontraditional stuff's move towards less negativity broke a little bit today in the original version, which went to three improved and three weaker from yesterday's five periods marginally improved and one minimally weaker. The good news is that the 5day period had a large positive move while the weaker periods had very small moves. The newer calculations have five improved periods and only one weaker and has been, in aggregate, improving for four days now.
ARCA was absent today.
Buy percentage improved marginally as VWAP dropped. This is the fourth consecutive day of "flipflop" in the buy percentage behavior while VWAP drops. All I can guess is that the sellers, and very likely, shortterm long MMs being most of those, are still predominant. Today it occurred to me that warrant conversions might be involved too. I've been thinking the sellers might be backing off, at last, and then thinking maybe not, and then ... Now it looks like "not so much". From 8/7 onward the selling was 58.75%, 75.21%, 76.95%, 68.46%, 81.10%, 90.57%, 84.14%, 55.44%, 47.7%, 68.3% and 60.73% today.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 0.00%, 2.22%, 00.53%, 26.25% and 14.56% respectively. Price spread today was 8.24% vs. 5.88%, 13.25%, 7.05%, 11.74%, 19.89%, 9.38%, 8.85%, 21.89% and 11.94% on prior days.
The larger trades (>= 15K) occurred on 11 of the 60 trades, 18.33%. These 478,100 shares were 63.38% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0873. 2 of the larger trades, 18.18%, were buys of 130,000 shares, 27.19% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0897. 9 of the larger trades, 81.82%, were sells of 348,100 shares, 72.81% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0864.
The other 49 trades, 81.67% of the day's trades, traded 276,208 shares, 36.62% of the days volume. The VWAP was $0.0879. 26 trades, 53.06%, were buys and accounted for 166,202 shares, 60.17% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0887. 23 trades, 46.94%, were sells and accounted for 110,006 shares, 39.83% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0867.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes.
08:3808:38: 024500 shrs, 03.25% of vol, VWAP $0.0853, 000.0% buys
09:3009:31: 225000 shrs, 29.83% of vol, VWAP $0.0859, 000.0% buys
09:3210:00: 154001 shrs, 20.42% of vol, VWAP $0.0895, 100.0% buys
10:0210:48: 061801 shrs, 08.19% of vol, VWAP $0.0884, 066.0% buys
10:5211:26: 045500 shrs, 06.03% of vol, VWAP $0.0887, 060.9% buys
11:2612:55: 097517 shrs, 12.93% of vol, VWAP $0.0867, 017.4% buys
13:1014:25: 070289 shrs, 09.32% of vol, VWAP $0.0876, 058.3% buys
14:2914:59: 042500 shrs, 05.63% of vol, VWAP $0.0890, 050.6% buys
15:2215:48: 039000 shrs, 05.17% of vol, VWAP $0.0879, 000.0% buys
15:5915:59: 001200 shrs, 00.16% of vol, VWAP $0.0898, 100.0% buys
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary price range.
$0.0850$0.0853: 054500 shrs, 07.23% of vol, VWAP $0.0852, 000.0% buys
$0.0860$0.0861: 277217 shrs, 36.75% of vol, VWAP $0.0860, 000.0% buys
$0.0870$0.0876: 099300 shrs, 13.16% of vol, VWAP $0.0875, 045.3% buys
$0.0880$0.0889: 114789 shrs, 15.22% of vol, VWAP $0.0882, 052.7% buys
$0.0890$0.0899: 174501 shrs, 23.13% of vol, VWAP $0.0895, 089.8% buys
$0.0900$0.0900: 020000 shrs, 02.65% of vol, VWAP $0.0900, 100.0% buys
$0.0917$0.0917: 010000 shrs, 01.33% of vol, VWAP $0.0917, 100.0% buys
$0.0920$0.0920: 004001 shrs, 00.53% of vol, VWAP $0.0920, 100.0% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line. See the 8/15 EOD post for some exceptional conditions that were seen.
08/07 $0.0971 +04.41% 37.4%
08/08 $0.0957 01.48% 24.8%
08/11 $0.1010 +05.52% 23.0%
08/12 $0.0998 01.21% 31.5%
08/13 $0.1005 +00.74% 18.9%
08/14 $0.0969 03.56% 09.4%
08/15 $0.0953 01.62% 15.5%
08/18 $0.0904 05.18% 43.8%
08/19 $0.0901 00.31% 37.1%
08/20 $0.0885 01.75% 51.3%
08/21 $0.0880 00.65% 31.7%
08/22 $0.0875 00.53% 39.3%
Here's my newer inflection point calculations. We went from all periods showing less weakening to five doing so and that continues. Volume again improved a bit, so even though they were marginal moves I think we can see this as continued improvement, i.e. "a trend to slower weakening", but not strengthening yet.
_5day_ 10day_ _25day_ _50day_ _100day_ _200day_
117.43 0237.84 0378.85 0755.29 01625.42 05065.95
043.90 0135.30 0287.64 0508.36 01119.94 03518.08
048.11 0159.69 0343.40 0592.95 01467.36 04294.03
090.71 0175.62 0379.23 0653.06 01563.56 04442.46
127.20 0219.59 0478.65 0796.09 02014.51 05687.78
213.56 0346.24 0590.92 0929.86 02269.98 06180.82
228.96 0302.19 0717.36 1085.17 02658.70 07442.64
218.93 0282.36 0691.61 1072.74 02349.09 06946.85
175.00 0284.99 0657.58 1053.02 02330.95 06797.51
155.54 0288.76 0636.48 1006.68 02154.14 06267.86
065.98 0278.96 0639.05 0982.02 02075.97 05875.84
"Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection point changes here are in the latest daily post above.
08/21/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 44, MinTrSz: 150, MaxTrSz: 90000, Vol: 597450, AvTrSz: 13578
Min. Pr: 0.0850, Max Pr: 0.0900, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.0880
# Buys, Shares: 22 189450, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.0891
# Sells, Shares: 22 408000, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.0874
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:2.15 (31.71% "buys"), DlyShts 57000 (09.54%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 13.97%
We need to hire a new painter  the close was right in line with trading of the last half hour, which ranged from $0.0875 to $0.0896. Yes, there was a buy at 15:59:23 of 1,800 shares for $0.0896 but the four trades before it, latest to oldest, were $0.0875 (15K), $0.0876 (10K),$0.0895 (10K) and $0.0895 (1k). These all happened from 15:56 to 15:59. The trade before that sequence was a sell at 15:28 of 25K for $0.0875.
I continue to think there's a decent chance that for the moment the $0.085/6 potential support will hold up, due to negative signs weakening and next week we go into the period of the month when we've traditionally seen prices stabilize and even improve slightly sometimes.
At last it looks like the lowvolume days I thought would be needed to slow the descent are taking effect. Here's VWAP percentage changes 8/13 through today, 8/20: 0.74%, 3.56%, 1.62%, 5.18%, 0.31%, 1.75% and 00.65%. The effects of the last highvolume day on 8/18 should be almost totally gone now. As suggested yesterday "that effect should begin to dissipate tomorrow as daily short sales percentage starts an up leg again". Daily short percentage now has two consecutive increases, but is still at very low levels. That should change today or tomorrow. If it does, our chance of staying above $0.085x$0.086 and, more importantly, $0.08 continues to improve.
There were really no outliers today. The high and low trades both had some volume and were within range of other trades with similar prices and volume.
On the traditional TA front, we had a very narrow spread that resulted in a hammer, indicating a bullish reversal 60% of the time, only a bit better than random, according to Bulkowski. Unfortunately he also notes that when reversal does occur the rise is not very strong, "... ranking 65 out of 103 candles where 1 is best". We also have four consecutive days of lower highs and two of those days with lower lows. Today had rising volume on a lower trading range and now six consecutive days of lower VWAP. I think this supports the weak appreciation if we do get a reversal.
However, the Bollinger band lower extreme, $0.0846, has contacted our low now. This offers the possibility that a tendency to revert to the midpoint may show up. With the upper extreme at $0.1114 the midpoint would be ~$0.093. The limits are still widely spread and converging (upper dropping significantly faster), so the midpoint will change.
The adjusted trend lines' resistance today is ~$0.102 and the support is ~$0.076. So our current trading range is almost smackdab in the middle right now. So this doesn't add any directionality suggestion right now. The potential support from the recent intraday lows of $0.0851 and $0.086 seems to be operational right now. But we know from past experience that can be fleeting. The best hope that it may hold strongly lies with ...
The 600K $0.085 bid from NITE appeared today at 12:28. Again, it was probably there all day but was masked by better bids from NITE until then. By 12:44 it was masked by better bids again.
Most of the oscillators I watch were slightly weaker today with the exceptions being RSI and MFI, which remained essentially flat.
My nontraditional stuff remains negative but the move towards less negativity continues. My original calculations have five periods marginally improved and one minimally weaker. The newer calculations have the same profile today and having been improving for three days now.
There were two AH trades for 10K shares that FINRAreported daily short sales don't include. Adding that to the FINRA trade volume raises it from 587,450 to 597,450 and would lower the short percentage from 09.70% to 09.54%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves from 57,000 to 67,000 and the short percentage would be 11.21%.
Daily short percentage had its second day of (very small) increase now. I think this indicates the effects of the highvolume widespread days are now fading. I expect a sizable jump up in the percentage either today or tomorrow if volume remains low and/or spread stays relatively "tight". Consider that "real" short could be slightly higher as noted in the prior paragraph.
ARCA was absent today.
Buy percentage deteriorated as VWAPs dropped. This is the third day of "flipflop" in the buy percentage behavior. All I can guess is that the sellers, and very likely, shortterm long MMs being most of those, are still predominant. Yesterday I thought the sellers might be backing off, at last. Today puts that assessment in question. From 8/7 onward the selling was 58.75%, 75.21%, 76.95%, 68.46%, 81.10%, 90.57%, 84.14%, 55.44%, 47.7% and 68.3% today.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 2.41%, 4.26%, 00.65%, 18.55% and 30.49% respectively. Price spread today was 5.88% vs. 13.25%, 7.05%, 11.74%, 19.89%, 9.38%, 8.85%, 21.89%, 11.94% and 10.28% on prior days.
The larger trades (>= 15K) occurred on 13 of the 44 trades, 29.55%. These 396,323 shares were 66.34% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0879. 4 of the larger trades, 30.77%, were buys of 101,323 shares, 25.57% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0889. 9 of the larger trades, 69.23%, were sells of 295,000 shares, 74.43% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0876.
The other 31 trades, 70.45% of the day's trades, traded 201,127 shares, 33.66% of the days volume. The VWAP was $0.0880. 18 trades, 58.06%, were buys and accounted for 88,127 shares, 43.82% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0894. 13 trades, 41.94%, were sells and accounted for 113,000 shares, 56.18% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0870.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes.
09:5810:05: 095150 shrs, 15.93% of vol, VWAP $0.0900, 000.2% buys
10:3112:01: 081000 shrs, 13.56% of vol, VWAP $0.0880, 006.2% buys
12:0912:53: 219000 shrs, 36.66% of vol, VWAP $0.0883, 057.5% buys
12:5513:44: 069500 shrs, 11.63% of vol, VWAP $0.0856, 015.1% buys
14:1215:28: 085000 shrs, 14.23% of vol, VWAP $0.0865, 029.4% buys
15:5615:59: 037800 shrs, 06.33% of vol, VWAP $0.0882, 033.9% buys
16:0516:05: 010000 shrs, 01.67% of vol, VWAP $0.0897, 100.0% buys
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary price range.
$0.0850$0.0854: 083000 shrs, 13.89% of vol, VWAP $0.0853, 000.0% buys
$0.0860$0.0861: 108500 shrs, 18.16% of vol, VWAP $0.0860, 031.8% buys
$0.0875$0.0876: 095000 shrs, 15.90% of vol, VWAP $0.0875, 000.0% buys
$0.0880$0.0880: 061000 shrs, 10.21% of vol, VWAP $0.0880, 000.0% buys
$0.0894$0.0899: 121800 shrs, 20.39% of vol, VWAP $0.0897, 100.0% buys
$0.0900$0.0900: 128150 shrs, 21.45% of vol, VWAP $0.0900, 025.9% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line. See the 8/15 EOD post for some exceptional conditions that were seen.
08/06 $0.0930 +00.27% 65.4%
08/07 $0.0971 +04.41% 37.4%
08/08 $0.0957 01.48% 24.8%
08/11 $0.1010 +05.52% 23.0%
08/12 $0.0998 01.21% 31.5%
08/13 $0.1005 +00.74% 18.9%
08/14 $0.0969 03.56% 09.4%
08/15 $0.0953 01.62% 15.5%
08/18 $0.0904 05.18% 43.8%
08/19 $0.0901 00.31% 37.1%
08/20 $0.0885 01.75% 51.3%
08/21 $0.0880 00.65% 31.7%
Here's my newer inflection point calculations. We went from all periods showing less weakening to five doing so and that continues. Volume again improved a bit, so even though they were marginal moves I think we can see this as continued improvement, i.e. "a trend to slower weakening", but not strengthening yet.
_5day_ 10day_ _25day_ _50day_ _100day_ _200day_
079.77 0273.98 0369.85 0740.27 01593.87 05112.74
117.43 0237.84 0378.85 0755.29 01625.42 05065.95
043.90 0135.30 0287.64 0508.36 01119.94 03518.08
048.11 0159.69 0343.40 0592.95 01467.36 04294.03
090.71 0175.62 0379.23 0653.06 01563.56 04442.46
127.20 0219.59 0478.65 0796.09 02014.51 05687.78
213.56 0346.24 0590.92 0929.86 02269.98 06180.82
228.96 0302.19 0717.36 1085.17 02658.70 07442.64
218.93 0282.36 0691.61 1072.74 02349.09 06946.85
175.00 0284.99 0657.58 1053.02 02330.95 06797.51
155.54 0288.76 0636.48 1006.68 02154.14 06267.86
"Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection point changes here are in the latest daily post above.
08/20/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 56, MinTrSz: 180, MaxTrSz: 100000, Vol: 503951, AvTrSz: 8999
Min. Pr: 0.0830, Max Pr: 0.0940, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.0885
# Buys, Shares: 25 258694, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.0892
# Sells, Shares: 30 240257, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.0877
# Unkn, Shares: 1 5000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0940
Buy:Sell 1.08:1 (51.33% "buys"), DlyShts 43680 (08.67%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 18.18%
Our painter was on the job today with two buys for $0.0909 (the best they could do today I guess) totaling 7K shares at 15:57. If those two trades, which BTW occurred sequentially as the last trades of the day, hadn't occurred our close would have been $0.0861. There were two more buys at that price totaling 7K at 15:41 and 15:47. They were wrapped in surrounding sells of $0.0861.
I've noted sub$0.09 VWAP seemed near. The last two days were close with VWAPs of $0.0904 and then $0.0901. Today it was $0.0885.
On 8/15 I also said "... we have entered shortterm consolidation. Shortterm is the operative word here. I don't believe we'll make mediumterm. I'm not saying a close below $0.09 right away, but it sure looks like that's coming soon". There but for the grace of "paint" went us ... today.
Regardless of all that, I think there's a decent chance that for the moment the $0.085/6 potential support will hold up. It's not due to a lot of positive signs, but rather due to negative signs weakening and next week we go into the period of the month when we've traditionally seen prices stabilize and even improve slightly sometimes.
On Monday, 8/18 I said it's going to take some lowvolume days to stop this trend as highvolume days bring weakness but low volume likely wouldn't stop it immediately, but only slow the descent initially. Here we are two days later and we had two lowvolume days, ~262K and ~504K, and it's hard to say if that's the case ATM. Here's VWAP percentage changes 8/13 through today, 8/20: 0.74%, 3.56%, 1.62%, 5.18%, 0.31% and 1.75%. Some of this could be hangover from the last highvolume day on 8/18. If so, that effect should begin to dissipate tomorrow as daily short sales percentage starts an up leg again. If it does, our chance of staying above $0.085x$0.086 and, more importantly, $0.08 improves.
Part of this improvement in chance of holding above those levels could be because we'll shortly be entering the last week of the month when some price stability, and sometimes even small improvement, is seen.
The day's low was one of the outliers today, a sell of 4,257 shares for $0.0830 at 12:19. The next higher price was $0.0850, which was 1 sell for 10K. It was near to the next higher trades range of $0.086 which had several trades and ~37K shares traded. On the top end the day's high of $0.0940 was set by two trades, a sell and unknown, totaling 13K shares. The next two prices down, both sells, were in the first 23 seconds at $0.0925 and the $0.0917. Each was a quantity of 2K. $0.0910 had a few trades with a little volume and was in range of some decent volume seen at $0.0909.
If I were looking for a better representation of the day's behavior I think a low of $0.085 would be OK and a high of $0.0910 would serve.
On the traditional TA front, we had a wider spread (barely) even with the outliers discounted. We also have three consecutive days of lower highs and two of those days with lower lows. This ignores outliers which we have almost every day. Fortunately it's on substantially lower volume, compared to last Friday and Monday. Unfortunately, the lower open, close, high and low today is with increasing volume. Add in a VWAP that's fallen for the fifth consecutive day and went below $0.09 today.
None of that suggests anything positive yet.
With the adjusted trend lines from yesterday, the resistance today is just below ~$0.10 (~$0.099?) and the support is ~$0.0775. There is potential support from the recent intraday lows of $0.0851 and $0.086 and if we throw out the outlier low today it looks like it might hold. We had good volume at $0.086 and above and today we still have additional hope because ...
The 600K $0.085 bid from NITE appeared today at 12:19. Again, it was probably there all day but was masked by better bids from NITE until then. By 12:23 it was masked by better bids again. We should remember that last time we had such a situation, with ~784K aggregate in bids at a low support level IIRC, we chewed through that support in just a few days.
Most of the oscillators I watch were "flattish" today. ADX related and full stochastic weakened a bit and momentum had a small up tick.
The Bollinger band extremes are still widely spread and converging with the upper limit descending very quickly. Today the upper and lower limits are $0.1188 and $0.0812.
My nontraditional stuff remains negative but the move towards less negativity continues. As with yesterday, all improvements were relatively small and all readings are still strongly negative. But with improved volume we can add a little confidence to what they suggest. IMO, just a slowing of price descent and maybe even support at that $0.085/6 level. The original calculations are also showing improvement.
Yesterday daily short percentage dropped to 8.52% directionally in line with the buy percentage's drop to 37.12% from 43.8%. Today buy percentage rose to 51.3% and daily short percentage rose to 8.67%. This is effectively zilch. I think this is still from the two consecutive "highvolume, wide spread" days on Friday and Monday. I think these effects will be gone tomorrow, 8/21, and we should see the daily short percentage start to behave normally (i.e. choppy leg up beginning) and that should help remove some of the downward pressure.
This would be in line with my "If volume remains low the daily short percentage should begin to recover to normal levels in a day or two and price may begin to stabilize".
ARCA was absent today.
Buy percentage improved as VWAPs dropped, unlike yesterday. The sellers may be backing off, at last. From 8/7 onward the selling was 58.75%, 75.21%, 76.95%, 68.46%, 81.10%, 90.57%, 84.14%, 55.44% and 47.7% today.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 5.68%, 0.21%, 01.75%, 92.27% and 95.63% respectively. Price spread today was 13.25% vs. 7.05%, 11.74%, 19.89%, 9.38%, 8.85%, 21.89%, 11.94%, 10.28% and 3.96% on prior days.
Using a low and high of $0.085 and $0.091 respectively, our ... low change would be 3.41% instead of 5.68%, the high change would be 3.40% instead of 0.21%, and the spread would be 7.06% instead of 13.25%.
The larger trades (>= 15K) occurred on 7 of the 56 trades, 12.50%. These 274,491 shares were 54.47% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0879. 2 of the larger trades, 28.57%, were buys of 150,000 shares, 54.65% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0883. 5 of the larger trades, 71.43%, were sells of 124,491 shares, 45.35% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0874.
The other 49 trades, 87.50% of the day's trades, traded 229,460 shares, 45.53% of the days volume. The VWAP was $0.0893. 23 trades, 46.94%, were buys and accounted for 108,694 shares, 47.37% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0903. 25 trades, 51.02%, were sells and accounted for 115,766 shares, 50.45% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0881. 1 trade, 2.04%, was unknown and accounted for 5,000 shares, 2.18% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0940.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes.
09:3010:21: 029257 shrs, 05.81% of vol, VWAP $0.0889, 013.7% buys
10:5611:16: 050700 shrs, 10.06% of vol, VWAP $0.0915, 049.3% buys
11:1712:10: 052934 shrs, 10.50% of vol, VWAP $0.0900, 048.4% buys
12:1812:33: 171000 shrs, 33.93% of vol, VWAP $0.0877, 064.6% buys
12:5612:57: 025560 shrs, 05.07% of vol, VWAP $0.0900, 100.0% buys
12:5915:39: 159000 shrs, 31.55% of vol, VWAP $0.0875, 034.6% buys
15:4115:57: 015500 shrs, 03.08% of vol, VWAP $0.0901, 083.9% buys
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary price range.
$0.0830$0.0830: 004257 shrs, 00.84% of vol, VWAP $0.0830, 000.0% buys
$0.0850$0.0861: 054243 shrs, 10.76% of vol, VWAP $0.0858, 000.0% buys
$0.0870$0.0884: 239257 shrs, 47.48% of vol, VWAP $0.0878, 044.1% buys
$0.0890$0.0909: 174194 shrs, 34.57% of vol, VWAP $0.0899, 077.0% buys
$0.0910$0.0917: 017000 shrs, 03.37% of vol, VWAP $0.0911, 100.0% buys
$0.0925$0.0925: 002000 shrs, 00.40% of vol, VWAP $0.0925, 100.0% buys
$0.0940$0.0940: 013000 shrs, 02.58% of vol, VWAP $0.0940, 000.0% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line. See the 8/15 EOD post for some exceptional conditions that were seen.
08/05 $0.0915 +01.27% 37.9%
08/06 $0.0930 +00.27% 65.4%
08/07 $0.0971 +04.41% 37.4%
08/08 $0.0957 01.48% 24.8%
08/11 $0.1010 +05.52% 23.0%
08/12 $0.0998 01.21% 31.5%
08/13 $0.1005 +00.74% 18.9%
08/14 $0.0969 03.56% 09.4%
08/15 $0.0953 01.62% 15.5%
08/18 $0.0904 05.18% 43.8%
08/19 $0.0901 00.31% 37.1%
08/20 $0.0885 01.75% 51.3%
Here's my newer inflection point calculations. We went from all periods showing less weakening to five doing so. Volume was improved a bit, so even though they were marginal moves I think we can see this as continued improvement, i.e. "a trend to slower weakening", but not strengthening yet.
_5day_ 10day_ _25day_ _50day_ _100day_ _200day_
119.68 0334.46 0456.94 0871.46 02126.06 06889.45
079.77 0273.98 0369.85 0740.27 01593.87 05112.74
117.43 0237.84 0378.85 0755.29 01625.42 05065.95
043.90 0135.30 0287.64 0508.36 01119.94 03518.08
048.11 0159.69 0343.40 0592.95 01467.36 04294.03
090.71 0175.62 0379.23 0653.06 01563.56 04442.46
127.20 0219.59 0478.65 0796.09 02014.51 05687.78
213.56 0346.24 0590.92 0929.86 02269.98 06180.82
228.96 0302.19 0717.36 1085.17 02658.70 07442.64
218.93 0282.36 0691.61 1072.74 02349.09 06946.85
175.00 0284.99 0657.58 1053.02 02330.95 06797.51
"Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection point changes here are in the latest daily post above.
08/19/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 47, MinTrSz: 357, MaxTrSz: 20000, Vol: 262106, AvTrSz: 5577
Min. Pr: 0.0880, Max Pr: 0.0942, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.0901
# Buys, Shares: 18 97306, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.0913
# Sells, Shares: 28 164100, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.0894
# Unkn, Shares: 1 700, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0909
Buy:Sell 1:1.69 (37.12% "buys"), DlyShts 22328 (08.52%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 13.61%
I've noted sub$0.09 VWAP seemed near. Yesterday was close with a VWAP of $0.0904. Today we inched nearer with a VWAP of $0.0901.
I opined yesterday "I think it's going to take some lowvolume days to stop this trend because recently all highvolume days bring weakness". Low volume likely will not stop it immediately, but only slow the descent initially.
On the traditional TA front, a reduced spread with a lower high and higher low on reducing volume, ~402.9K, ~1.5MM, ~1.62MM and ~262K, finally suggests that the downside is nearing its limit. Not that we're there yet, but the big push is over and now we should see any creep lower as only lowvolume and incremental. The recent lows of 8/4 and 8/5 of $0.0851 and $0.086 on 8/18 might offer some support but we need to be mindful that our history is to always make new alltime lows. If that holds we will go below the 1/16/14 $0.08 intraday low and bounce back.
Since we seem to be repeating the manymonths pattern of weakness in the middle weeks of the month, holding at or above these recent lows seems problematic. The reducing volume offers some hope though.
From a comment I made in the concentrator: "Out [sic] painter was aggressive today, taking out 16,571 share at $0.0915 and 6,500 at the resulting "uncovered" $0.0925. Still ended down 1/8% [sic] though. The rest of the trading took some of the shares that resulted in a VWAP of $0.0901 for the day  2.59% lower than the close". Of course, "down 1.8%" was intended.
Ignoring the paint, today would have closed at $0.0900, again, on a 20K sell at 15:54.
That was fortunate too because a lot of trading in the last hour, including as late as 15:50, was in the low $0.088x area.
Regarding the descending trading channel resistance, I've adjusted both the resistance and support to better fit the price activity. Both have more touch points as a result, offering a higher level of confidence that they are valid.
With the adjusted lines, the resistance today is ~$0.10 and the support is ~$0.078. It's important to remember that support is significant only if we make a full traversal of the channel as we complete this down leg. Right now there is potential support from the recent intraday lows of $0.0851 and $0.086. With three touches it could be strong enough to hold but history suggests otherwise. But there's additional hope because ...
The 600K $0.085 bid from NITE appeared today at 14:32. It was probably there all day but was masked by better bids from NITE until then. By 14:42 it was masked again. We approached it with yesterday's low of $0.086. Normally a bid this size has a lot of slightly better bids piled up above it and it takes a while to work through them. With low volume, if it continues, we might stay above $0.085x long enough for some catalyst to push price up again.
However, last time we had such a situation, with ~784K aggregate in bids at a low support level IIRC, once we got to them we chewed through them in just three days or so. Since I don't see that much has improved, other than the recent adjustments to the allowed selling rate from the new 1:1.7 warrants exercise, I can't put a lot of faith in this $0.085 level holding all that much longer.
Most of the oscillators I watch weakened marginally again. The ones that didn't were again MFI and momentum, which still appear mostly flat.
The Bollinger band extremes are still widely spread and converging with the upper limit descending very quickly. Today the upper and lower limits are $0.1251 and $0.0790.
My nontraditional stuff remains negative but the move towards improvement continues, with the newer calculations going from yesterday's four periods improved and two weakened to all periods showing reductions in weakening. All improvements were relatively small and all readings are still strongly negative. All this was on low volume so we do have to be a bit skeptical that this is anything but noise yet.
The original version has four improved periods and two weakened.
Yesterday I noted "... buy percentage went from 15.5% to 43.8% and daily short sales went from 12.17% to 15.38%. With a second highvolume day, albeit with reduced spread, daily short sales percentage will continue to struggle to move up at least an additional day". Today daily short percentage dropped to 8.52% directionally in line with buy percentage's drop to 37.12% from 43.8%.
As we know, when daily short sales are moving down or at a low percentage the share price tends to fall.
Daily short percentage continues to be choppy: 40%, 1.92%, 46.6%, 1.13%, 15.24%, 0.78%, 51.05%, 12.17%, 15.38% and 8.52% today. If volume remains low the daily short percentage should begin to recover to normal levels in a day or two and price may begin to stabilize.
ARCA was absent today, which may have helped keep the VWAP from tanking as it did yesterday, going from $0.0953 to $0.0904 Friday to Monday. Today we only went to $0.0901.
The only real outlier today was the $0.0942 buy at the open, the first trade of the day which matched the "painted" closing price of the prior day. $0.0925 was the next lower price and would be a high more indicative of sentiment IMO.
Buy percentage deteriorated as VWAPs dropped, unlike yesterday. The sellers were still in control  most likely the MMs with shortterm long positions that would occur if they did a lot of covering buys on the highvolume days when we had wide spreads and lots of selling. From 8/7 onward the selling was 58.75%, 75.21%, 76.95%, 68.46%, 81.10%, 90.57%, 84.14% and 55.44%. Volume these last two days was 1458.55K and 1619.71K. The prior percentages might generate some long positions, but much smaller and with less dramatic downward pressure resulting .
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 2.33%, 1.98%, 00.31%, 83.82% and 91.04% respectively. Price spread today was 7.05% vs. 11.74%, 19.89%, 9.38%, 8.85%, 21.89%, 11.94%, 10.28%, 3.96% and 8.77% on prior days.
There were only two larger trades, both sells: $0.0891 17K 14:32:52 and $0.0900 20K 15:54:56.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes. The last period contains buys for $0.0915 and $0.0925 that were well above the $0.0884$0.09 trades that preceded them in the prior period. They were obvious "painting the tape", as usual here.
09:4410:58: 111300 shrs, 06.87% of vol, VWAP $0.0913, 067.7% buys
09:3009:30: 004200 shrs, 01.60% of vol, VWAP $0.0942, 100.0% buys
09:4610:47: 022100 shrs, 08.43% of vol, VWAP $0.0900, 000.0% buys
10:5511:44: 011957 shrs, 04.56% of vol, VWAP $0.0917, 090.0% buys
12:0313:20: 034000 shrs, 12.97% of vol, VWAP $0.0903, 000.0% buys
13:2114:26: 064299 shrs, 24.53% of vol, VWAP $0.0905, 064.2% buys
14:3215:31: 081000 shrs, 30.90% of vol, VWAP $0.0889, 021.6% buys
15:3615:54: 021479 shrs, 08.19% of vol, VWAP $0.0899, 002.2% buys
15:5915:59: 023071 shrs, 08.80% of vol, VWAP $0.0918, 100.0% buys
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary price range. The $0.0925 range were buys that were obvious "painting the tape", as usual here.
$0.0880$0.0892: 075500 shrs, 28.81% of vol, VWAP $0.0886, 000.0% buys
$0.0900$0.0919: 175906 shrs, 67.11% of vol, VWAP $0.0906, 049.2% buys
$0.0925$0.0925: 006500 shrs, 02.48% of vol, VWAP $0.0925, 100.0% buys
$0.0942$0.0942: 004200 shrs, 01.60% of vol, VWAP $0.0942, 100.0% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line. See the 8/15 EOD post for some exceptional conditions that were seen.
08/04 $0.0904 09.03% 25.6%
08/05 $0.0915 +01.27% 37.9%
08/06 $0.0930 +00.27% 65.4%
08/07 $0.0971 +04.41% 37.4%
08/08 $0.0957 01.48% 24.8%
08/11 $0.1010 +05.52% 23.0%
08/12 $0.0998 01.21% 31.5%
08/13 $0.1005 +00.74% 18.9%
08/14 $0.0969 03.56% 09.4%
08/15 $0.0953 01.62% 15.5%
08/18 $0.0904 05.18% 43.8%
08/19 $0.0901 00.31% 37.1%
Here's my newer inflection point calculations. A lowvolume day moved us from five periods weakening, after four consecutive days of all periods weakening, to all periods showing less weakening. They were marginal moves though and, as always, low volume may make this just noise.
_5day_ 10day_ _25day_ _50day_ _100day_ _200day_
169.15 0375.41 0548.97 0943.54 02455.30 07964.20
119.68 0334.46 0456.94 0871.46 02126.06 06889.45
079.77 0273.98 0369.85 0740.27 01593.87 05112.74
117.43 0237.84 0378.85 0755.29 01625.42 05065.95
043.90 0135.30 0287.64 0508.36 01119.94 03518.08
048.11 0159.69 0343.40 0592.95 01467.36 04294.03
090.71 0175.62 0379.23 0653.06 01563.56 04442.46
127.20 0219.59 0478.65 0796.09 02014.51 05687.78
213.56 0346.24 0590.92 0929.86 02269.98 06180.82
228.96 0302.19 0717.36 1085.17 02658.70 07442.64
218.93 0282.36 0691.61 1072.74 02349.09 06946.85
"Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection point changes here are in the latest daily post above.
08/18/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 114, MinTrSz: 500, MaxTrSz: 100000, Vol: 1619708, AvTrSz: 14208
Min. Pr: 0.0860, Max Pr: 0.0961, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.0904
# Buys, Shares: 43 709195, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.0911
# Sells, Shares: 69 898013, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.0899
# Unkn, Shares: 2 12500, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0904
Buy:Sell 1:1.27 (43.79% "buys"), DlyShts 249145 (15.38%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 27.74%
Yesterday, after touching on what traditional TA and my newer inflection point calculations suggested, it seemed sub$0.09 VWAP was near. Today was close with a VWAP of $0.0904.
Today's stuff has quite a few bearish indications going on and with volume rising for the second consecutive day on a falling low and VWAP. This a negative indication. The possible exception is the volume is high enough that it might suggest an end of the down trend. But it didn't spike higher so it's not as strong an indication of an end of trend. It "progressed", suggesting there's more downside left.
My nontraditional stuff continues to show weakness, including average buy percentages trending lower, newer inflection point calculations still trending weaker for the fifth day, weak daily short percentages, and VWAPs trending lower for the third consecutive day.
I think it's going to take some lowvolume days to stop this trend because recently all highvolume days bring weakness.
The 600K $0.085 bid from NITE appeared today at 12:20. We're approaching it with today's low of $0.086. 116K traded in the $0.0861  $0.0860 range. Based on the past, when we had longterm apparent support built up to around 850K on the bids at a low price, the support this offers might hold no more than two or three days when it comes into play.
On the traditional TA front, a lower high and low on rising volume, ~402.9K, ~1.5MM and ~1.62MM, is enough by itself to suggest nothing good this way comes.
Someone was nice enough to paint the tape at the close with a buy of 1K shares for $0.0942 at 15:59:13. The trades just prior were in the $0.0900  $0.0910 range after coming out of the high $0.08xx area. That closing trade prevented a close below my shortterm rising support, but just barely since, AFAICT, it's ~$0.094.
Ignoring the paint, today would have closed at $0.0900, fitting with yesterday's suggestion of a move lower when we had a penetration of the shortterm rising support but closed above it at $0.0974.
Unfortunately that close was also suspicious as a 1K buy for $0.0974 went off at 15:59:46. Trades just prior were several with good volume at $0.0903. Worse, the painter had to strike twice more to get the job done. In the midst of those low$0.090xx trades were two more buys in the $0.097xx range: 15:58:20 5K buy for $0.0973 and 15:58:32 1.8K buy for $0.0974.
So, I'm convinced that the real trading has had a close below the rising support on consecutive days now, confirming a break below. This suggests more downside is available. It means I'll need to adjust that support line as well to try and find a more likely stronger support. Could be tough to do.
I mentioned the resistance of a descending trading channel was rapidly approaching our trading range, being ~$0.11 yesterday, matching a shortterm top seen in the highs since 8/1 which had been challenged two times subsequent to its origin. The descending resistance, at $0.1067 AFAICT, is now below that horizontal price point of $0.11. This suggests a tough time getting any real liftoff if some upward impetus tries to develop.
On the other end, the falling support is ~$0.0825. If we are in the midst of a down leg within that channel and it completed transversal of the channel today, that would be our target. Tomorrow would be ~$0.800.
Most of the oscillators I watch weakened. The ones that didn't were MFI and momentum, which appear mostly flat.
The Bollinger band extremes are still widely spread and converging with the upper limit descending very quickly. Today the upper and lower limits are $0.1298 and $0.0782.
I had changed my "death cross" date "... to possibly Monday and certainly Tuesday". Got it today, Monday, with readings of $0.1298 and $0.1301 for the 50 and 200day SMAs,respectively. If this has the traditional effect we should break out of consolidation very soon.
I still don't believe we'll make the transition from shortterm consolidation to mediumterm. Yesterday I said "I'm not saying a close below $0.09 right away, but it sure looks like that's coming soon". That's still my best SWAG. Without the tape painting today (and yesterday) we would have closed most likely at $0.0903.
My nontraditional stuff remains negative. My newer inflection point calculations had four consecutive days of weakening by all periods. Today five of the six went more negative, keeping the weakening tend in play. The pattern on the chart is moving strongly in the direction of forming the signal for a down move with only the 10day period making a weak attempt to reverse. Even my original calculations' chart had all periods drooping yesterday. Today four periods improved and two weakened. Keep in mind it considers fewer factors than the newer calculations.
Regarding daily short percentage, I noted it didn't get to stabilize before we got another highvolume wide spread day and typical behavior now is for it to again tank in a day or two and to see price weaken as it does so. But we got another highvolume day combined with an improved buy percentage. As noted in the past, the directional correlation, but not magnitude correlation, is pretty reliable between buy percentage and daily short sales percentage. Today buy percentage went from 15.5% to 43.8% and daily short sales went from 12.17% to 15.38%. with a second highvolume day, albeit with reduced spread, daily short sales percentage will continue to struggle to move up at least an additional day.
As we know, when daily short sales are moving down or at a low percentage the share price tends to fall.
Daily short percentage continues to be choppy: 40%, 1.92%, 46.6%, 1.13%, 15.24%, 0.78%, 51.05%, 12.17% and 15.38% today. As noted, today's volume suggests continued low percentage for an added day.
ARCA appeared on the offer again today beginning at 10:11. In and out all day, they got the price deterioration started in earnest when they moved their offer down from their initial $0.095 to $0.0925 at 11:18. By 11:51 ARCA and CSTI were offering at $0.09. At 12:01 $0.0875 was seen. The offers struggled but did manage to improve throughout the day. Near the close $0.0942 was in place as the best offer.
As with yesterday, there's really no way to determine an outlier status today. There were lots of potential outliers at every price above $0.092. The high of the day, $0.0961, was just one buy of 5.3K. Just below were two buys at $0.0948 totaling ~8.3k. Then were two buys at $0.0946, but you can't toss a72K trade out of consideration can you? And so it goes. If I had to discount something I'd use a high of $0.0946.
As we've often seen in the past, buy percentage improved as prices plunged to what might be considered absurdly low levels. That didn't stop the sellers though, as can be seen from a VWAP of $0.0904 combined with a buy percentage of only 43.8%, an improvement over yesterday's 15.5%.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 4.44%, 10.94%, 05.18%, 11.05% and 40.40% respectively. Price spread today was 11.74% vs. 19.89%, 9.38%, 8.85%, 21.89%, 11.94%, 10.28%, 3.96%, 8.77% and 17.51% on prior days.
The larger trades (>= 15K) occurred on 21 of the 114 trades, 18.42%. These 1,022,841 shares were 63.15% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0903. 9 of the larger trades, 42.86%, were buys of 490,700 shares, 47.97% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0910. 12 of the larger trades, 57.14%, were sells of 532,141 shares, 52.03% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0897.
The other 93 trades, 81.58% of the day's trades, traded 596,867 shares, 36.85% of the days volume. The VWAP was $0.0905. 34 trades, 36.56%, were buys and accounted for 218,495 shares, 36.61% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0913. 57 trades, 61.29%, were sells and accounted for 365,872 shares, 61.30% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0901.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes. "Lateday weakness" began at 11:15 today. Based on volume, there was really no recovery from that condition.
09:4410:58: 111300 shrs, 06.87% of vol, VWAP $0.0913, 067.7% buys
11:0011:12: 131550 shrs, 08.12% of vol, VWAP $0.0923, 019.4% buys
11:1611:44: 212600 shrs, 13.13% of vol, VWAP $0.0905, 028.9% buys
11:4512:03: 088000 shrs, 05.43% of vol, VWAP $0.0882, 059.7% buys
12:0712:46: 164147 shrs, 10.13% of vol, VWAP $0.0913, 077.8% buys
12:5013:02: 227500 shrs, 14.05% of vol, VWAP $0.0871, 047.5% buys
13:0313:35: 180611 shrs, 11.15% of vol, VWAP $0.0906, 061.5% buys
14:0314:37: 256000 shrs, 15.81% of vol, VWAP $0.0906, 011.3% buys
14:5015:16: 108500 shrs, 06.70% of vol, VWAP $0.0936, 099.1% buys
15:1915:37: 034500 shrs, 02.13% of vol, VWAP $0.0906, 029.0% buys
15:4415:58: 104000 shrs, 06.42% of vol, VWAP $0.0904, 000.0% buys
15:5915:59: 001000 shrs, 00.06% of vol, VWAP $0.0942, 100.0% buys
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary price range.
$0.0860$0.0875: 158500 shrs, 09.79% of vol, VWAP $0.0864, 026.8% buys
$0.0880$0.0899: 223300 shrs, 13.79% of vol, VWAP $0.0885, 053.5% buys
$0.0900$0.0915: 732913 shrs, 45.25% of vol, VWAP $0.0903, 026.9% buys
$0.0920$0.0939: 394400 shrs, 24.35% of vol, VWAP $0.0921, 060.7% buys
$0.0942$0.0948: 105295 shrs, 06.50% of vol, VWAP $0.0946, 100.0% buys
$0.0961$0.0961: 005300 shrs, 00.33% of vol, VWAP $0.0961, 100.0% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line. See the 8/15 EOD post for some exceptional conditions that were seen.
08/01 $0.0994 04.47% 59.5%
08/04 $0.0904 09.03% 25.6%
08/05 $0.0915 +01.27% 37.9%
08/06 $0.0930 +00.27% 65.4%
08/07 $0.0971 +04.41% 37.4%
08/08 $0.0957 01.48% 24.8%
08/11 $0.1010 +05.52% 23.0%
08/12 $0.0998 01.21% 31.5%
08/13 $0.1005 +00.74% 18.9%
08/14 $0.0969 03.56% 09.4%
08/15 $0.0953 01.62% 15.5%
08/18 $0.0904 05.18% 43.8%
Here's my newer inflection point calculations. Another highvolume day volume with five periods weakening after four consecutive days of all periods weakening continues the weakening trend.
_5day_ 10day_ _25day_ _50day_ _100day_ _200day_
196.55 0411.22 0693.93 1031.21 02933.83 09517.86
169.15 0375.41 0548.97 0943.54 02455.30 07964.20
119.68 0334.46 0456.94 0871.46 02126.06 06889.45
079.77 0273.98 0369.85 0740.27 01593.87 05112.74
117.43 0237.84 0378.85 0755.29 01625.42 05065.95
043.90 0135.30 0287.64 0508.36 01119.94 03518.08
048.11 0159.69 0343.40 0592.95 01467.36 04294.03
090.71 0175.62 0379.23 0653.06 01563.56 04442.46
127.20 0219.59 0478.65 0796.09 02014.51 05687.78
213.56 0346.24 0590.92 0929.86 02269.98 06180.82
228.96 0302.19 0717.36 1085.17 02658.70 07442.64
"Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection point changes here are in the latest daily post above.
08/15/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 98, MinTrSz: 200, MaxTrSz: 235000, Vol: 1458550, AvTrSz: 14883
Min. Pr: 0.0900, Max Pr: 0.1079, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.0953
# Buys, Shares: 36 226377, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.0972
# Sells, Shares: 61 1227173, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.0950
# Unkn, Shares: 1 5000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0947
Buy:Sell 1:5.42 (15.52% "buys"), DlyShts 177450 (12.17%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 14.46%
For me, the most important thing today is my concerns about what my newer inflection point calculations may be signaling. I won't replicate my thoughts here. But summarizing both the traditional and nontraditional TA considerations, sub$0.09 VWAP seems to be near. The $0.09xx support held, so far, 60% longer than the $0.10 support did, so it's getting a bit long in the tooth.
Details, for you masochists out there, are in the rest of the day's EOD postings.
I had noted the status of "nothing changed" could be broken if any significant changes are reported in the 10Q we expected. It was rather bland and devoid of anything earthshattering items I guess, but the change to that status was significant, in and of itself, in my mind. Whether others saw it that way and whether it affected today's trading I can't say. There were other factors that may easily have had more effect, mentioned in a brief discussion just before the daily listing of the newer inflection point calculations. For a fast jump to there, use your browser search for "false".
On the traditional TA front, the most significant thing, I think, is that we had a penetration of a shortterm rising support, currently about $0.094. But it's really shortterm and only has an origin and two prior touch points, so it's strength was not firmly established. Today made the fourth touch and we did close above it. The VWAP was also above it. So this could suggest that it will hold, but there's a lot of other negatives suggesting it won't.
I think I mentioned a few days back that price range had moved back into the descending trading channel after having been below it a few days. I don't recall mentioning that it was more due to the slope of the channel rather than a rise in price range, although there was some of that involved too. I want to mention that the descending resistance of that channel is rapidly approaching our trading range. It's currently ~$0.11, matching a shortterm top seen in the highs since 8/1 and it has been challenged two times subsequent to its origin. Our closes have not approached it during this period. With both that resistance existing and the descending channel resistance about to come into play, I see the chances for breaking above $0.10 continuing to be very low.
More concerning than the inability to surpass $0.10 is the pressure this implies will be coming to move lower. Our low $0.09xx has already outlasted the five days support seen at $0.10 by 60%. This was after seeing lows and closes two days below $0.09. So, metaphorically it's getting long in the tooth. Add in we are in the period of the month when weakness has been seen for many months. It may be this is still in play regardless of management changes, S1 and 10Q filings, etc. I have no way to know.
All the oscillators I watch, except MFI, weakened. This transition from mixed suggests that real weakness is now being seen. ADX related and accumulation and distribution continued weakening too.
The Bollinger band extremes had a small change. They are still widely spread and the upper limit is dropping rapidly. The lower limit moved from flat to a slight rise. The upper and lower readings today are $0.1335 and $0.0781. So we are now starting the "pinch" process where the limits converge over time, leading to the "coiled spring" analogy. That situation is some time away yet.
More pressing is the pending "death cross". I had revised my estimate of this to be middle of next week. Today I revise again to possibly Monday and certainly Tuesday. Readings today are $0.1310 and $0.1303 for the 50 and 200day SMAs respectively.
Yesterday I said we have entered shortterm consolidation. Shortterm is the operative word here. I don't believe we'll make mediumterm. I'm not saying a close below $0.09 right away, but it sure looks like that's coming soon.
My nontraditional stuff is negative regarding a push above $0.10. Worse, it's now negative regarding support at $0.09. First, my newer inflection point calculations have established a trend down with four consecutive days of weakening by all periods. The pattern on the chart is moving strongly in the direction of forming the signal for a down move. Even my original calculations' chart, which appeared to have become desensitized over time, has responded and has all periods drooping noticeably now.
The daily short percentage was not able to stabilize in a range of normal readings before we got another highvolume wide spread day. Typical behavior now is for it to again tank in a day or two and to see price weaken as it does so.
As mentioned above, a 300K+ bid appeared at the open for $0.107. Details of its actions and effects are below. NITE showed a bid for 360K at 15:56 for $0.0902. What an opportunist! :) I didn't see a lot of other larger bids.
There's really no way to determine an outlier status today  it was all outliers, from the opening 311K $0.107 bid to the lateday $0.09 trades. If it was worth it, I guess some of the lowervolume prices could be considered, but I don't see any value in that in the context of today's behavior.
ARCA was in early to take advantage of the high bid. I commented at the time (9:48) to expect price deterioration. tinyurl.com/kpr2sme
By 9:55 we were down to $0.1020, 10:11 $0.0974, 10:25 $0.0903, ...
There was relatively little upward movement in either the bids or the asks throughout the day. On the ask side, most were from order completion "uncovering" higher bids and they were quickly "covered". Lower bids that were uncovered weren't covered nearly as quickly.
At 11:26 ATDF disappeared from the market, noted in this comment. At 13:33 they were back, noted in this comment. I can't recall seeing this before in a couple of years of tracking. I'm sure it's happened, but I don't recall it. Very unusual.
Buy percentage improved in spite of the selling frenzy seen both early and late. This is more a comment on how weak yesterday's 9.4% was rather than a comment that today's 15.5% was "stronger". For some context, through yesterday the buy percentage averages for the 10, 25, 50 and 100days are 28.93%, 37.48%, 34.71% and 38.39% respectively.
Daily short percentage continues to be choppy: 40%, 1.92%, 46.6%, 1.13%, 15.24%, 0.78%, 51.05% and 12.17% today. With today's high trade volume and wide price spread, daily short percentage will likely tank again in a day or two, price will tend to weaken and then a choppy daily short percentage attempt to recover to normal levels will likely appear ... unless we get some more highvolume widespread days.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 6.25%, 2.76%, 01.62%, 261.95% and 13.73% respectively. Price spread today was 19.89% vs. 9.38%, 8.85%, 21.89%, 11.94%, 10.28%, 3.96%, 8.77%, 17.51% and 29.26% on prior days.
A note on the larger block trades: a 309.5K bid at $0.107 was entered at the open, an apparent godsend to those wishing to sell. This skewed both the VWAPs and buy percentage of the larger blocks. For a little context: 282,950 shares traded in larger blocks at the $0.107 price, 30.38% of the larger block volume. Sans the $0.107 trades the VWAP of the larger blocks would be $0.0916. The number of shares classified as sells would drop to 588,400.
Some context at the other end seems warranted too as today was so strange.
Some other unusually large blocks, even in the larger trades context, were seen at the opposite end of the price scale. These included 235K, 90K and I threw in some at 50K and below because of their price being in the range of the 235K. They occurred in four sells, totaled 420K, 45.10% of the larger block volume, and went for a VWAP of $0.0903.
The larger trades (>= 15K) occurred on 18 of the 98 trades, 18.37%. These 931,350 shares were 63.85% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0963. 3 of the larger trades, 16.67%, were buys of 60,000 shares, 6.44% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0982. 15 of the larger trades, 83.33%, were sells of 871,350 shares, 93.56% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0961.
The other 80 trades, 81.63% of the day's trades, traded 527,200 shares, 36.15% of the days volume. The VWAP was $0.0937. 33 trades, 41.25%, were buys and accounted for 166,377 shares, 31.56% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0969. 46 trades, 57.50%, were sells and accounted for 355,823 shares, 67.49% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0922. 1 trade, 1.25%, was unknown and accounted for 5,000 shares, 0.95% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0947.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes. "Lateday weakness" personified! But it's exacerbated by the early $0.107 bid detailed above. Note that 311K for $0.107 sells are in the first period. At the other end of the price range, 741.6K at $0.0903 or below traded in the last nine minutes of the last period, beginning at 15:52 and continuing to the close.
09:3009:56: 367327 shrs, 25.18% of vol, VWAP $0.1068, 015.1% buys
10:1110:26: 066800 shrs, 04.58% of vol, VWAP $0.0941, 000.3% buys
10:5411:45: 072500 shrs, 04.97% of vol, VWAP $0.0959, 089.7% buys
11:4612:29: 038600 shrs, 02.65% of vol, VWAP $0.0945, 035.2% buys
12:5213:59: 040750 shrs, 02.79% of vol, VWAP $0.0951, 048.5% buys
14:3815:37: 027000 shrs, 01.85% of vol, VWAP $0.0944, 063.0% buys
15:4815:59: 845573 shrs, 57.97% of vol, VWAP $0.0905, 006.5% buys
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary price range. Note the first range includes the 741.6K trades at or below $0.0903. The last range includes the 311K for $0.107 sells.
$0.0900$0.0911: 810900 shrs, 55.60% of vol, VWAP $0.0903, 005.8% buys
$0.0930$0.0950: 137173 shrs, 09.40% of vol, VWAP $0.0935, 007.3% buys
$0.0960$0.0974: 143150 shrs, 09.81% of vol, VWAP $0.0966, 079.2% buys
$0.1020$0.1035: 027327 shrs, 01.87% of vol, VWAP $0.1029, 100.0% buys
$0.1050$0.1079: 340000 shrs, 23.31% of vol, VWAP $0.1071, 008.3% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line. See the 8/15 EOD post for some exceptional conditions that were seen.
07/31 $0.1040 00.64% 19.3%
08/01 $0.0994 04.47% 59.5%
08/04 $0.0904 09.03% 25.6%
08/05 $0.0915 +01.27% 37.9%
08/06 $0.0930 +00.27% 65.4%
08/07 $0.0971 +04.41% 37.4%
08/08 $0.0957 01.48% 24.8%
08/11 $0.1010 +05.52% 23.0%
08/12 $0.0998 01.21% 31.5%
08/13 $0.1005 +00.74% 18.9%
08/14 $0.0969 03.56% 09.4%
08/15 $0.0953 01.62% 15.5%
Here's my newer inflection point calculations. A highvolume day with all periods weakening four consecutive days makes a trend. I believe we are now nearing a break below the $0.09 support. The newer calculations' chart pattern is forming the precursor to such a move. We have also entered the period when weakness has been seen over the last many months  the middle weeks of the month. I was/am wondering if this pattern was still in play, considering the management changes, the S1 filing, the minimal 10Q, ...
Trying to find reasons this may be a false signal, I note the extreme selling induced by the appearance of the 311.6K bid at $0.107. But then I note the sell percentage, 94.2%, that also occurred at the $0.0911 and lower price levels (see the price trading breakdown). So there was apparently a predisposition to sell anyway? The last hopefully ameliorating circumstance would be the concern about the Russia and Ukraine situation going into the weekend. But I haven't noted geopolitical events affecting AXPW behavior in the past. Of course, I wasn't looking for it either.
_5day_ 10day_ _25day_ _50day_ _100day_ _200day_
172.47 0273.65 0498.46 0804.62 02358.17 07891.15
196.55 0411.22 0693.93 1031.21 02933.83 09517.86
169.15 0375.41 0548.97 0943.54 02455.30 07964.20
119.68 0334.46 0456.94 0871.46 02126.06 06889.45
079.77 0273.98 0369.85 0740.27 01593.87 05112.74
117.43 0237.84 0378.85 0755.29 01625.42 05065.95
043.90 0135.30 0287.64 0508.36 01119.94 03518.08
048.11 0159.69 0343.40 0592.95 01467.36 04294.03
090.71 0175.62 0379.23 0653.06 01563.56 04442.46
127.20 0219.59 0478.65 0796.09 02014.51 05687.78
213.56 0346.24 0590.92 0929.86 02269.98 06180.82
"Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection point changes here are in the latest daily bost above.
08/14/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 35, MinTrSz: 480, MaxTrSz: 200000, Vol: 402968, AvTrSz: 11513
Min. Pr: 0.0960, Max Pr: 0.1050, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.0969
# Buys, Shares: 9 38000, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.0982
# Sells, Shares: 26 364968, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.0968
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:9.60 (09.43% "buys"), DlyShts 205700 (51.05%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 56.36%
My take is essentially status unchanged  going nowhere fast. Nothing supporting a break above $0.10 coming is in the cards I read. Likewise, nothing suggesting a break below $0.09 is likely.
If any significant changes are reported in the 10Q expected tonight, things could change.
One trade of 200K for $0.0970 at 12:14 seriously skewed at least one of the metrics, the buy and sell percentages. Removing the trade helped, but not that much, as buy percentage would move up to 18.72%. So the notable thing about it was that it was apparently in line with the overall sentiment of the day  sell. There was no $0.097 price that was best on the bid or ask at the time, but ATDF did have a 100K bid for that price entered at 09:45, 100K for $0.0966 at 10:25 and a 100K bid for $0.096 at 11:45. All those bids were hidden as the normal ATDF 10K bids $0.0001 better than whatever best bid was in place at the time occurred. Normally I would think these were the same units with the original being canceled and reentered at lower bid prices. But with the 200K trade I'm not sure that's the case. Either way, this was apparently an internal trade or negotiated trade since no bid or ask at the price was presented at the time. The short volume suggests negotiated if we presume the short volume was related to the 200K trade.
Another effect of the trade was to nearly double the day's volume, which would be 202,968 without that trade, very low volume.
A third effect may have occurred in the short percentage. Note the daily short volume took a very large jump (+4014.00%) and the absolute short volume is only 5.7K above that 200K. We'll never know.
Considering that 200K trade and what the volume would be without it, I'd be cautious about giving too much weight to both the traditional and nontraditional evaluations today.
On the traditional TA front, the oscillators I watch continued mixed today with RSI, MFI and momentum showing small improvement and Williams %R making a large improvement. Full stochastic and ADX related continued weakening, as did accumulation and distribution, which has been weakening since 7/24.
The Bollinger band extremes are as before  still widely spread, the lower limit flat and the upper limit going down rapidly. The upper and lower readings today are $0.1390 and $0.0768.
Today I think we can say we have entered shortterm consolidation.
My nontraditional stuff is even more negative regarding a push above $0.10. If we remove just the largest 200K trade, average trade size is 5,970, even smaller than yesterday's 7.9K if that day's 137K trade is removed. Yesterday the average trade size over 10, 25, 50 and 100day periods were 8913, 9,896, 8,446 and 8,335 respectively. Smaller trade sizes haven't historically pushed prices up. My newer inflection point calculation values are weakening for the third consecutive day. Daily short percentage, which was having trouble returning to normal ranges, made a big jump from 0.78% to 51.05%. This is in line with the predicted "choppy" behavior. Let's hope the next reversal finds a range more normal than the low singledigit and below readings we've been seeing.
Only ATDF had a 100K bid today and there could have been three separate bids (see above).
The price outliers today were a sell of 3K shares for $0.1050 at 09:38 and was +5.21% above the nearest reasonable high price with some volume of $0.0998. The next lower price of $0.1049, +5.11% above $0.998, was a buy of 1K shares.
If I were trying to pick something within range of the day's trend with multiple trades and some volume I would I'd go with $0.0998 for the high.
ARCA was in and out on the offer several times.
Only NITE and ATDF were pushing the bid price up, and only after 13:30 but for a couple early in the day exceptions. This late effort was spoiled as the ask prices were pushed lower by the presence of ARCA and NITE was jumping in severely undercutting the best ask several times. This fit with the behavior earlier in the day though as asks generally weakened until the last hour of the day.
In the nontraditional areas ...
Buy percentage retreated again from yesterday's 18.9%. Unlike yesterday VWAP did not improve. Removing the 200K trade helped as buy percentage would move up to 18.72%, essentially flat with yesterday's 18.9%, a rotten reading regardless.
Daily short percentage continues to be choppy: 40%, 1.92%, 46.6%, 1.13%, 15.24%, 0.78% and 51.05% today. Note the short volume of 205.7K is only slightly larger than the 200K sell.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 0.00%, 0.48%, 03.56%, 36.76% and 4,014.00% respectively. Price spread today was 9.38% vs. 8.85%, 21.89%, 11.94%, 10.28%, 3.96%, 8.77%, 17.51%, 29.26% and 14.36% on prior days.
The larger trades (>= 15K) occurred on 4 of the 35 trades, 11.43%. These 258,500 shares were 64.15% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0968. All were sells.
The other 31 trades, 88.57% of the day's trades, traded 144,468 shares, 35.85% of the days volume. The VWAP was $0.0971. 9 trades, 29.03%, were buys and accounted for 38,000 shares, 26.30% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0982. 22 trades, 70.97%, were sells and accounted for 106,468 shares, 73.70% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0968.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes. Note the 200K for $0.097 trade is in the period ending at 12:24
09:3009:53: 028888 shrs, 07.17% of vol, VWAP $0.0975, 000.0% buys
10:1111:07: 032500 shrs, 08.07% of vol, VWAP $0.0966, 000.0% buys
11:2611:26: 010000 shrs, 02.48% of vol, VWAP $0.0998, 100.0% buys
11:3012:24: 308000 shrs, 76.43% of vol, VWAP $0.0967, 006.5% buys
13:2615:44: 022580 shrs, 05.60% of vol, VWAP $0.0979, 031.0% buys
15:5915:59: 001000 shrs, 00.25% of vol, VWAP $0.0998, 100.0% buys
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary price range. Note the 200K for $0.097 trade is in the first range.
$0.0960$0.0973: 381968 shrs, 94.79% of vol, VWAP $0.0967, 005.2% buys
$0.0980$0.0998: 017000 shrs, 04.22% of vol, VWAP $0.0997, 100.0% buys
$0.1049$0.1050: 004000 shrs, 00.99% of vol, VWAP $0.1050, 025.0% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
07/30 $0.1047 00.42% 12.2%
07/31 $0.1040 00.64% 19.3%
08/01 $0.0994 04.47% 59.5%
08/04 $0.0904 09.03% 25.6%
08/05 $0.0915 +01.27% 37.9%
08/06 $0.0930 +00.27% 65.4%
08/07 $0.0971 +04.41% 37.4%
08/08 $0.0957 01.48% 24.8%
08/11 $0.1010 +05.52% 23.0%
08/12 $0.0998 01.21% 31.5%
08/13 $0.1005 +00.74% 18.9%
08/14 $0.0969 03.56% 09.4%
Here's my newer inflection point calculations. Regardless of volume all the periods have weakened three consecutive days now. I believe it's a trend ... LoL! That will likely be broken again tomorrow, just to confound me!
_5day_ 10day_ _25day_ _50day_ _100day_ _200day_
251.21 0275.95 0515.38 0824.90 02406.96 08009.76
172.47 0273.65 0498.46 0804.62 02358.17 07891.15
196.55 0411.22 0693.93 1031.21 02933.83 09517.86
169.15 0375.41 0548.97 0943.54 02455.30 07964.20
119.68 0334.46 0456.94 0871.46 02126.06 06889.45
079.77 0273.98 0369.85 0740.27 01593.87 05112.74
117.43 0237.84 0378.85 0755.29 01625.42 05065.95
043.90 0135.30 0287.64 0508.36 01119.94 03518.08
048.11 0159.69 0343.40 0592.95 01467.36 04294.03
090.71 0175.62 0379.23 0653.06 01563.56 04442.46
127.20 0219.59 0478.65 0796.09 02014.51 05687.78
"Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection point changes here are in the latest daily post above.
08/13/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 64, MinTrSz: 400, MaxTrSz: 137000, Vol: 637170, AvTrSz: 9956
Min. Pr: 0.0960, Max Pr: 0.1045, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1005
# Buys, Shares: 19 120400, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1023
# Sells, Shares: 45 516770, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1001
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:4.29 (18.90% "buys"), DlyShts 5000 (00.78%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 0.97%
There was one AH trade for 10K shares that FINRAreported daily short sales don't include. Adding that to the FINRA trade volume raises it from 627,170 to 637,170 and would lower the short percentage from 00.80% to 00.78%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves from 5,000 to 15,000 and the short percentage would be 2.35%.
With volume at a decent level today, I assign more confidence to both the traditional and nontraditional evaluations today.
I think the $0.10 resistance seems a bit less at risk in the nearterm. This is mostly because the buy percentage is not able to maintain a healthy trend even with traditional TA charts reflecting the outliers and maybe some positive sentiment existing due the recent changes at Axion and the S1 filing.
When we get some volume combined with a very small push up in price, buy percentage seems to suffer. This tells me sellers are taking advantage of the buyers' positive sentiment to unload shares they don't want to hold. Assuming the usual situation exists that there's a lot more shares that are to be distributed than can be absorbed by the current buyers, I see nothing to push price beyond $0.10 consistently for now.
On the traditional TA front, rising and reasonable volume combined with a close lower than the open would suggest weakness. The oscillators I watch, which had been mostly improving, went mixed today with RSI, MFI, full stochastic and ADX related weakening. Only Williams %R and momentum have a positive bent right now. Accumulation has been weakening since 7/24.
The Bollinger band extremes are still widely spread. The lower limit has flattened at ~$0.0767 (well, down from $0.0769  slow enough of a descent to consider it flat) while the upper limit remains in a decisive downward attitude, now going parabolic, and is down to $0.1427 from yesterday's $0.1468.
Recall we had broke below the descending trading channel's support line and then moved back above the line. We have five consecutive closes above it, which is good, but except for the "highpriced spread" outliers the two prior days we have not been able to move out of a sideways range around the low $0.10xx to high $0.09xx range.
In the current price range the 50day SMA, at $0.1336, is still tracking to cross below the 200day SMA, at $0.1305. I thought probably by Friday 8/15, but now I think the middle of next week is more likely.
Today continues to look positive for consolidation (sideways trading) to develop.
I'm still wondering if this is the start of weakening seen in the middle weeks of the month.
My nontraditional stuff still doesn't support a push above $0.10. If we remove just the largest 137K trade, average trade size is 7.9K. The average trade size over 10, 25, 50 and 100day periods are 8913, 9,896, 8,446 and 8,335 respectively. Smaller trade sizes haven't historically pushed prices up. My newer inflection point calculation values are weakening for the second consecutive day. Daily short percentage continues having trouble returning to normal ranges (0.78% today) and low daily short percentage tends to be associated with falling price.
Only NITE had a 100K bid today. NITE also had the 600K bid at $0.085. The 100K was eventually taken after NITE moved it from $0.101 (12:56) to $0.102 (13:34). The order finished filling at 14:17.
The price outlier today was an odd bird in that it had seven trades totaling 59K shares that had 9K in two sells and the rest in five buys for $0.1045. All occurred from 13:29 to 13:48. This price was +2.35% above the next lower price of $0.1021 (three trades 21.1K). The next lower price traded 100.4K in five trades. The $0.1045 trades were +2.45% above this price.
If I were trying to pick something within range of the day's trend with multiple trades and some volume I would I'd go with $0.1021 for the high.
ARCA was in and out on the offer several times.
Buyers were chasing the price up less aggressively today than yesterday. VWAP still increased 0.74%. But the buy percentage dropped from 31.5% yesterday to 18.9%. All this occurred on volume improvement of 184.52%, mostly driven by six larger trades that accounted for 50.71% of the day's volume at a VWAP of $0.1009. The fiftyeight smaller normal trades' VWAP was $0.1001.
In the nontraditional areas ...
Buy percentage retreated from 31.5% while VWAP improved. Since this was on good and rising volume, the pattern of sellers coming in when volume and price rises makes me doubt any break above $0.10 on a consistent basis is near. I'm still not seeing any sign that we'd be likely to go below $0.09 in the nearterm.
Daily short percentage continues to be choppy: 40%, 1.92%, 46.6%, 1.13%, 15.24% and 0.78% today.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 6.67%, 4.74%, 00.74%, 184.52% and 85.35% respectively. Price spread today was 8.85% vs. 21.89%, 11.94%, 10.28%, 3.96%, 8.77%, 17.51%, 29.26%, 14.36% and 5.84% on prior days.
The larger trades (>= 15K) occurred on 6 of the 64 trades, 9.38%. These 323,100 shares were 50.71% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1009. 1 of the larger trades, 16.67%, was a buy of 25,000 shares, 7.74% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1045. 5 of the larger trades, 83.33%, were sells of 298,100 shares, 92.26% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1006.
The other 58 trades, 90.63% of the day's trades, traded 314,070 shares, 49.29% of the days volume. The VWAP was $0.1001. 18 trades, 31.03%, were buys and accounted for 95,400 shares, 30.38% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1017. 40 trades, 68.97%, were sells and accounted for 218,670 shares, 69.62% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0993.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes. Note the $0.1045 outliers are all in the period ending the period ending 13:48, and 14:18 includes the day's second largest trade, a sell of ~74K for $0.1020. The period ending 14:46 includes the day's largest trade, a sell of 137K for $0.1000, and third largest trade, a sell for 50K for $0.1010.
09:4509:47: 017300 shrs, 02.72% of vol, VWAP $0.1006, 043.4% buys
10:2711:33: 041700 shrs, 06.54% of vol, VWAP $0.1004, 071.7% buys
11:3413:03: 028400 shrs, 04.46% of vol, VWAP $0.1013, 070.4% buys
13:2913:48: 064000 shrs, 10.04% of vol, VWAP $0.1043, 078.1% buys
13:5314:18: 125500 shrs, 19.70% of vol, VWAP $0.1020, 000.0% buys
14:1914:46: 241500 shrs, 37.90% of vol, VWAP $0.1003, 005.4% buys
15:0715:55: 108770 shrs, 17.07% of vol, VWAP $0.0969, 000.0% buys
16:0016:00: 010000 shrs, 01.57% of vol, VWAP $0.1000, 000.0% buys
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary price range. Note the $0.1000 range includes the largest and third largest trades, sells of 137K for $0.10 and 50K for $0.1010. The $0.1020 range includes the second largest trade, a sell of 74.6K for $0.1020.
$0.0960$0.0966: 078870 shrs, 12.38% of vol, VWAP $0.0965, 000.0% buys
$0.0980$0.0981: 029900 shrs, 04.69% of vol, VWAP $0.0981, 000.0% buys
$0.1000$0.1015: 348900 shrs, 54.76% of vol, VWAP $0.1004, 020.2% buys
$0.1020$0.1021: 120500 shrs, 18.91% of vol, VWAP $0.1020, 000.0% buys
$0.1045$0.1045: 059000 shrs, 09.26% of vol, VWAP $0.1045, 084.7% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
07/29 $0.1051 05.60% 45.7%
07/30 $0.1047 00.42% 12.2%
07/31 $0.1040 00.64% 19.3%
08/01 $0.0994 04.47% 59.5%
08/04 $0.0904 09.03% 25.6%
08/05 $0.0915 +01.27% 37.9%
08/06 $0.0930 +00.27% 65.4%
08/07 $0.0971 +04.41% 37.4%
08/08 $0.0957 01.48% 24.8%
08/11 $0.1010 +05.52% 23.0%
08/12 $0.0998 01.21% 31.5%
08/13 $0.1005 +00.74% 18.9%
Here's my newer inflection point calculations. Yesterday volume tanked again and all periods weakened. I wondered if we might be returning to "just noise". Nope! All the periods weakened again even as volume rose substantially.
_5day_ 10day_ _25day_ _50day_ _100day_ _200day_
258.75 0295.48 0561.16 0900.25 03010.39 09172.28
251.21 0275.95 0515.38 0824.90 02406.96 08009.76
172.47 0273.65 0498.46 0804.62 02358.17 07891.15
196.55 0411.22 0693.93 1031.21 02933.83 09517.86
169.15 0375.41 0548.97 0943.54 02455.30 07964.20
119.68 0334.46 0456.94 0871.46 02126.06 06889.45
079.77 0273.98 0369.85 0740.27 01593.87 05112.74
117.43 0237.84 0378.85 0755.29 01625.42 05065.95
043.90 0135.30 0287.64 0508.36 01119.94 03518.08
048.11 0159.69 0343.40 0592.95 01467.36 04294.03
090.71 0175.62 0379.23 0653.06 01563.56 04442.46
"Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection point changes here are in the latest daily post above.
08/12/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 40, MinTrSz: 630, MaxTrSz: 25000, Vol: 223943, AvTrSz: 5599
Min. Pr: 0.0900, Max Pr: 0.1097, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.0998
# Buys, Shares: 13 70630, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1017
# Sells, Shares: 27 153313, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.0989
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:2.17 (31.54% "buys"), DlyShts 34130 (15.24%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 22.26%
Although it didn't look like it because of the bid and ask behavior, today was weak. Buyers were chasing the price up and the sellers were taking advantage as best they could and volume was low. Sellers were aided and abetted by 100K bids from ETRF, CSTI, CDEL and NITE. NITE could have been the ETRF bid, which I suspect was laid off to NITE as is common with ETRF. The ETRF bid was no longer visible, but it could have been masked by a 50K $0.098 bid from ETRF.
We also saw normal bids from BKMM but not VFIN. CDEL moved their bid of 100K for $0.099 (11:41) to $0.102 at 15:22. A couple sells may have hit that bid totaling 6K shares.
In spite of that, VWAP marginally weakened even as buy percentage rose from yesterday's 23% to 31.5% today.
I'm wondering if this is the start of weakening seen in the middle weeks of the month.
Donning my TFH, I can't help but wonder if these 100K bids that mostly seem to result in nothing but "show" are just tools to move price up. Combined with a $0.09 900 share sell at the open and the single buy of 5K at $0.1097, we've got a nice wide spread on the charts, setting the stage for MMs and others to make some money.
All combined, the $0.10 resistance seems at risk in the nearterm. This is mostly because I think traditional TA charts reflect the outliers and maybe some positive sentiment exists with the recent changes at Axion and the S1 filing. But those outliers really bother me  my TFH keeps me worrying that we are being had.
My nontraditional stuff doesn't support a push above $0.10 though. Smaller average trade size, lower volume, weakening newer inflection point calculation values, and daily short percentage having trouble returning to normal ranges all fail to support a strong push above $0.10.
But in all cases low volume casts tons of doubt on any TA, including my nontraditional stuff. So I assign no high confidence to either the traditional or nontraditional results I see here.
We have outliers at both ends of the spectrum today. At the low end was a single sell of 8K for $0.09, the low of the day. The next higher prices were $0.0970 (1 sell 1K), $0.0971 (3 sells 9.4K), $0.0980 (three sells 11.8K).
If I were trying to pick something within range of the day's trend with multiple trades and some volume I would lean towards $0.0980 as a low value.
On the high end we saw a single buy of 5K shares for $0.1097. This was in the timeframe when bids were above $0.10 and the recent offers had been very briefly as high as $0.11. The next lower prices were $0.1049 (3 buys of 14.5K) from early in the morning (BTW, $0.1049 has been a commonly seen offer), $0.1030 (1 sell 800), $0.1020 (2 sells 6K) and then $0.10 with lots of trades and volume.
If I were trying to pick something within range of the day's trend with multiple trades and some volume I would lean towards $0.10 as a high value.
On the traditional TA front, volume tanked again, exiting what I would think useful, down to ~224K. So the traditional TA readings and thoughts should be taken with a grain, or even two, of salt.
Recall we had broken below the descending trading channel's support line and then moved back above the line. We now have the fourth consecutive close above it, which is good. I wanted to see us break above and away from it and we appeared to be doing so yesterday as the low moved up and away.
For the following keep in mind my mention of chasing the price that occurred.
If we include the low outlier, at the open we moved back to and tested that support today, AFAICT right at $0.09. Support then manifested strongly as bids and asks immediately moved higher and the next trades were much higher at $0.1049. For the rest of the day the lowest price seen was $0.0970.
If we discount the outliers and use my suggested low and high, $0.0980 and $0.10 respectively, we have a very narrow spread. The volume in this range is 80.04% of today's volume. The effect of TA on the charts would be different because this would give us a "spinning top" candlestick, indicating indecision, especially when combined with low volume.
The oscillators I watch are all again out of oversold today, except MFI, and strengthening, except for MFI and ADX related. Although volume did weaken today along with VWAP, I still think we can expect no nearterm push below $0.09.
The Bollinger band extremes are still widely spread. The lower limit has flattened at ~$0.0769 while the upper limit remains in a decisive downward attitude and is at $0.1468.
In the current price range the 50day SMA is still tracking to cross below the 200day SMA, probably by Friday 8/15.
Today continues to look positive for consolidation (sideways trading) to develop.
In the nontraditional areas ...
Yesterday I was a bit concerned that the buy percentage dropped again but I opined it may be just that $0.10 range resistance coming into play as bids got into the high $0.09x and low $0.10x areas and at that range sellers could be expected to show up strongly.
Buy percentage came back today to 31.5% but VWAP weakened 1.21% even so. Since this was on low volume, I'm still not seeing any sign that we'd be likely to go below $0.09 in the nearterm. But neither are we likely to smartly break above $0.10 yet.
Daily short percentage continues to be choppy: 40%, 1.92%, 46.6%, 1.13% and 15.24% today. I've mentioned a lowertrending daily short percentage has been associated with falling price. If daily short percentage can exit it's choppy state I think we'll see even further reduction of the odds for going below $0.09.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 5.76%, 2.62%, 01.21%, 55.12% and 507.62% respectively. Price spread today was 21.89% vs. 11.94%, 10.28%, 3.96%, 8.77%, 17.51%, 29.26%, 14.36%, 5.84% and 8.70% on prior days.
Using $0.0980 and $0.10 for the low and high the movement for the low and high would be +2.62% instead of 5.76% for the low and 6.45% instead of +2.62% for the high. The spread would be 2.04% instead of 21.89%.
The larger trades (>= 15K) occurred on 2 of the 40 trades, 5.00%. These 48,350 shares were 21.59% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0997. 1 of the larger trades, 50.00%, was a buy of 25,000 shares, 51.71% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1000. 1 of the larger trades, 50.00%, was a sell of 23,350 shares, 48.29% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0993.
The other 38 trades, 95.00% of the day's trades, traded 175,593 shares, 78.41% of the days volume. The VWAP was $0.0998. 12 trades, 31.58%, were buys and accounted for 45,630 shares, 25.99% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1026. 26 trades, 68.42%, were sells and accounted for 129,963 shares, 74.01% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0988.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes. Note the last period includes the $0.1097 outlier.
09:3009:30: 008000 shrs, 03.57% of vol, VWAP $0.0900, 000.0% buys
09:3009:30: 014500 shrs, 06.47% of vol, VWAP $0.1049, 100.0% buys
09:4410:00: 010800 shrs, 04.82% of vol, VWAP $0.0987, 037.0% buys
10:0911:41: 019030 shrs, 08.50% of vol, VWAP $0.0977, 003.3% buys
11:4811:50: 045000 shrs, 20.09% of vol, VWAP $0.1000, 100.0% buys
12:0314:58: 104813 shrs, 46.80% of vol, VWAP $0.0995, 001.4% buys
15:3216:00: 021800 shrs, 09.73% of vol, VWAP $0.1029, 022.9% buys
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary price range.
$0.0900$0.0900: 008000 shrs, 03.57% of vol, VWAP $0.0900, 000.0% buys
$0.0970$0.0999: 129143 shrs, 57.67% of vol, VWAP $0.0992, 000.5% buys
$0.1000$0.1020: 066500 shrs, 29.70% of vol, VWAP $0.1002, 075.9% buys
$0.1030$0.1049: 015300 shrs, 06.83% of vol, VWAP $0.1048, 094.8% buys
$0.1097$0.1097: 005000 shrs, 02.23% of vol, VWAP $0.1097, 100.0% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
07/28 $0.1113 05.51% 30.0%
07/29 $0.1051 05.60% 45.7%
07/30 $0.1047 00.42% 12.2%
07/31 $0.1040 00.64% 19.3%
08/01 $0.0994 04.47% 59.5%
08/04 $0.0904 09.03% 25.6%
08/05 $0.0915 +01.27% 37.9%
08/06 $0.0930 +00.27% 65.4%
08/07 $0.0971 +04.41% 37.4%
08/08 $0.0957 01.48% 24.8%
08/11 $0.1010 +05.52% 23.0%
08/12 $0.0998 01.21% 31.5%
Here's my newer inflection point calculations. Yesterday had all periods improved, making four of the last five days showing improvement, leading me to think we might be seeing a trend established at last. Well, today volume tanked again and all periods weakened. So much for seeing a trend start. Now with falling VWAP and volume even as buy percentage tries to show an improving trend I think we're victims of the strong resistance I suggested at $0.10. We might be returning to "just noise".
_5day_ 10day_ _25day_ _50day_ _100day_ _200day_
134.82 0171.43 0372.29 0494.57 01149.54 04728.89
258.75 0295.48 0561.16 0900.25 03010.39 09172.28
251.21 0275.95 0515.38 0824.90 02406.96 08009.76
172.47 0273.65 0498.46 0804.62 02358.17 07891.15
196.55 0411.22 0693.93 1031.21 02933.83 09517.86
169.15 0375.41 0548.97 0943.54 02455.30 07964.20
119.68 0334.46 0456.94 0871.46 02126.06 06889.45
079.77 0273.98 0369.85 0740.27 01593.87 05112.74
117.43 0237.84 0378.85 0755.29 01625.42 05065.95
043.90 0135.30 0287.64 0508.36 01119.94 03518.08
048.11 0159.69 0343.40 0592.95 01467.36 04294.03
"Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection point changes here are in the latest daily post above.
08/11/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 52, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 85000, Vol: 498964, AvTrSz: 9595
Min. Pr: 0.0955, Max Pr: 0.1069, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1010
# Buys, Shares: 12 115000, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.0999
# Sells, Shares: 40 383964, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1013
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:3.34 (23.05% "buys"), DlyShts 5617 (01.13%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 1.46%
We had one egregious outlier today  a "fishing lure"? It was a 100 share buy at $0.169. The next lower price was $0.105  a buy of 5K at 11:40 and a sell of 85K at 11:43. Lower price included 2 x 10K buys for $0.1049, one 15K sell for $0.1030, one sell of 3K for $0.1025, two sells for $0.1020 totaling 5.5K. We finally hit more than two trades at a price with some volume that were in range of other prices at $0.1015. I won't suggest which would be a good "real high" if we discount some of these. But I will say that $0.1069 was not a true indication of the trading profile today.
Check the trading breakdowns by time and price below for that.
In the larger trades breakdown note the buy/sell percentages and VWAP of the larger block buys vs. sells. These figures are supporting strong resistance at $0.10 I think.
On the traditional TA front, volume improved again, finally getting into what I would think useful, near 500K.
I had mentioned we had moved below my shortterm descending support and then started moving up and that line would become support. I hoped not as it's descending quite rapidly  I wanted to see us break away from it. It cooperated today with both the third close above the line, currently ~$0.0915 AFAICT, and the low moved up and away today. Let's hope that continues.
The oscillators I watch are all out of oversold today, except MFI. I thought all would get out of there when I said one more decent day should move several of them out of that condition. Some of them are barely out, but we'll take what we can get. With the improving volume, improving trading range and the oscillators improving I think we can at least look for no nearterm push below $0.09.
The Bollinger band extremes are still widely spread and in a decisive downward attitude. In the current price range the 50day SMA is still tracking to cross below the 200day SMA in just a few more days.
Yesterday I took a stab and said I think some sideways consolidation for at least a few days is in the cards for now. Today looks positive for that to develop now that we've departed above that descending support line.
I'm still mindful that we are exiting the period where we have seen some improvement in price and are entering the time when we get sags. Now is just a wait and see period.
In the nontraditional areas ...
This is the second day wherein buy percentage weakened. Today VWAP moved up nicely on decent volume rather than weakening as it did yesterday. Yesterday as both weakened I said no cause for alarm as buy percentage moved from 37.4% to 24.8% and VWAP dropped 1.48% from $0.0971 to $0.0957. I thought it nothing unusual during lowvolume periods following highvolume periods and SEC filings falling on us like bird droppings.
Today I am a bit concerned that the buy percentage dropped again. But it may be just that $0.10 range resistance coming into play as bids got into the high $0.09x and low $0.10x areas. At that range sellers could be expected to show up strongly.
We didn't have as many 100K bids today  only NITE and ATDF had them. So we lost CDEL, CSTI and ETRF. On top of that, we've didn't see bids of more normal size from MMs that normally have not participated  we lost BKMM and VFIN.
All combined, the $0.10 seems more likely to hold as stout resistance in the nearterm.
The low $0.09xx area is looking like stronger support when compared to the $0.10 area. The only thing missing was strong volume. But since 8/5, the second day with a low of $0.0851, we've had a trend of improving volume. In thousands beginning 8/5 we have: 731.66, 120.92, 260.11, 336.54 and ~498.964K.
I've been mentioning the daily short percentage will be choppy as it moves towards a more normal reading unless volume remains low. "Choppy" manifested again: 40%, 1.92%, 46.6% and 1.13% today. Seeing it come back this low is somewhat concerning. Although directional correlation between buy percentage and short percentage is strong and magnitude correlation is weak, this big of a divergence makes me wonder if something has changed or it's just a "blip". This will bear watching as a lowertrending daily short percentage has been associated with falling price. Fortunately, for the moment at least, it's still only "choppy" and not a trend.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 5.52%, 7.11%, 05.52%, 48.26% and 96.42% respectively. Price spread today was 11.94% vs. 10.28%, 3.96%, 8.77%, 17.51%, 29.26%, 14.36%, 5.84%, 8.70% and 16.32% on prior days.
The larger trades (>= 15K) occurred on 10 of the 52 trades, 19.23%. These 309,700 shares were 62.07% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1013. 2 of the larger trades, 20.00%, were buys of 66,000 shares, 21.31% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0984. 8 of the larger trades, 80.00%, were sells of 243,700 shares, 78.69% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1021.
The other 42 trades, 80.77% of the day's trades, traded 189,264 shares, 37.93% of the days volume. The VWAP was $0.1004. 10 trades, 23.81%, were buys and accounted for 49,000 shares, 25.89% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1018. 32 trades, 76.19%, were sells and accounted for 140,264 shares, 74.11% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1000.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes.
09:3009:52: 043147 shrs, 08.65% of vol, VWAP $0.0960, 080.9% buys
10:0110:31: 050700 shrs, 10.16% of vol, VWAP $0.0990, 001.4% buys
10:3211:03: 076800 shrs, 15.39% of vol, VWAP $0.1003, 070.7% buys
11:2811:43: 110000 shrs, 22.05% of vol, VWAP $0.1050, 022.7% buys
11:4712:04: 024600 shrs, 04.93% of vol, VWAP $0.1016, 000.4% buys
12:3814:52: 167217 shrs, 33.51% of vol, VWAP $0.1007, 000.0% buys
14:5315:55: 026500 shrs, 05.31% of vol, VWAP $0.0994, 000.0% buys
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary price range.
$0.0955$0.0960: 043147 shrs, 08.65% of vol, VWAP $0.0960, 080.9% buys
$0.0990$0.1010: 273717 shrs, 54.86% of vol, VWAP $0.0999, 020.1% buys
$0.1010$0.1030: 072000 shrs, 14.43% of vol, VWAP $0.1018, 000.0% buys
$0.1049$0.1050: 110000 shrs, 22.05% of vol, VWAP $0.1050, 022.7% buys
$0.1069$0.1069: 000100 shrs, 00.02% of vol, VWAP $0.1069, 100.0% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
07/25 $0.1178 09.19% 23.8%
07/28 $0.1113 05.51% 30.0%
07/29 $0.1051 05.60% 45.7%
07/30 $0.1047 00.42% 12.2%
07/31 $0.1040 00.64% 19.3%
08/01 $0.0994 04.47% 59.5%
08/04 $0.0904 09.03% 25.6%
08/05 $0.0915 +01.27% 37.9%
08/06 $0.0930 +00.27% 65.4%
08/07 $0.0971 +04.41% 37.4%
08/08 $0.0957 01.48% 24.8%
08/11 $0.1010 +05.52% 23.0%
Here's my newer inflection point calculations. Yesterday broke a trend of three days with all periods improved by posting 2 periods (10 and 200day) marginally improved while four were marginally weaker. I said "I don't posit the trend of improvement is completely broken yet  volume needs to stabilize and/or improve to make such a determination. For now I'm thinking just normal fluctuations in an improving trend. We'll see". Today returned to all periods improved, making four of the last five days showing improvement.
_5day_ 10day_ _25day_ _50day_ _100day_ _200day_
212.09 0286.96 0610.67 0950.02 03358.38 09626.50
134.82 0171.43 0372.29 0494.57 01149.54 04728.89
258.75 0295.48 0561.16 0900.25 03010.39 09172.28
251.21 0275.95 0515.38 0824.90 02406.96 08009.76
172.47 0273.65 0498.46 0804.62 02358.17 07891.15
196.55 0411.22 0693.93 1031.21 02933.83 09517.86
169.15 0375.41 0548.97 0943.54 02455.30 07964.20
119.68 0334.46 0456.94 0871.46 02126.06 06889.45
079.77 0273.98 0369.85 0740.27 01593.87 05112.74
117.43 0237.84 0378.85 0755.29 01625.42 05065.95
043.90 0135.30 0287.64 0508.36 01119.94 03518.08
"Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection point changes here are in the latest daily post above.
08/08/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 42, MinTrSz: 500, MaxTrSz: 89530, Vol: 336537, AvTrSz: 8013
Min. Pr: 0.0905, Max Pr: 0.0998, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.0957
# Buys, Shares: 12 83435, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.0969
# Sells, Shares: 30 253102, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.0953
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:3.03 (24.79% "buys"), DlyShts 156963 (46.64%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 62.02%
Overall I'm getting decent positive indications  that is, no big negatives in our case  from the current behavior. The only real cautionary note at this time is we have been in, and will now exit, the periods that have shown a less weak behavior in the past  the last and first weeks of each month. With the spate of filings and announcements though I can't say whether this is a continuation of that pattern or an effect of the news. If the news flow stops I guess the next two weeks may give an indication  will we weaken or see signs of stability that has been missing in those periods in the past?
On the traditional TA front, volume improved again, getting above "the very low end" of what I would think useful to just "the low end". This allows giving a bit more weight than yesterday to what the technical stuff suggests. We can move from no confidence at any level to cautious confidence I think.
We had moved below my shortterm descending support, bottoming at $0.0851 on 8/4 and 8/5 on two highvolume days and closed below it those two days, and 8/6 as well. But then we started moving up 8/6 and closed two days above that support, which would then have become resistance, on 8/7 and 8/8. The second close above is supposed to confirm a break above and that line would become support, although I hope not as it's descending quite rapidly  I want to see us break away from it.
The oscillators I watch, all of which, except full stochastic, went oversold on 7/25 and just moved deeper subsequently, have begun to recover. One more decent day should move several of them out of that condition. Full stochastic went oversold 7/29, bottomed 8/4 and has now moved out of oversold. Daily high's have been consistently in the high $0.09x area and challenging the former brief support, now resistance, of $0.10. However, keep in mind these highs have been mostly "outliers" and shouldn't carry too much weight yet.
I'd like to say that the Bollinger band suggests a move to ~$0.113 would be rational, but it's just too soon. The extremes are widely spread and both are in a decisive downward attitude. Also, the 50day SMA will cross below the 200day SMA in just a few more days. If there's many TA types active in AXPW we may see a flush from them. Honestly, if they are traders and awaiting that signal to flush they've really missed the boat though. That likely happened on the first highvolume day in the last week of July, Friday 7/25, when we dropped below the 200day SMA for the second day. If they are active now it's more likely they are buying.
The last traditional TA thing I want to mention is the indecision suggested by a "spinning top" candlestick today and 8/6. I'm going to take a stab and say I think some sideways consolidation for at least a few days is in the cards for now.
Having said that, we need to keep in mind that we are exiting the period where in the past we have seen some improvement in price and are entering the time when we get sags. We don't know if the SEC filings have affected this behavior or they will break the pattern. So I would emphasize the "caution" more than the "confidence" right now.
In the nontraditional areas ...
Yesterday I noted that although buy percentage weakened, the VWAP moved up nicely and I suspected the buy percentage was due to the dregs of the two highvolume days 8/1 and 8/4. Today both weakened a bit  but no cause for alarm  as buy percentage moved from 37.4% to 24.8% and VWAP dropped 1.48% from $0.0971 to $0.0957. I think this is nothing unusual during lowvolume periods following highvolume periods and SEC filings falling on us like bird droppings.
I'm still thinking that the low $0.09xx price is likely (upgraded from "might") to give support better than $0.10 did. This is bolstered by the recent appearance, on multiple days now, of 100K orders in the range just below and ranging up to the middle of the $0.09xx area. Further these come from multiple MMs on the same days, including ATDF, CDEL, CSTI, ETRF and NITE. On top of that, we've seen some bids of more normal size from MMs that normally have not participated  BKMM and VFIN.
Barring any negative bombshells, I'm thinking this results from the combination of a low price and apparent positive company actions suggested in the SEC filings. It's drawing some folks in believing a favorable risk/reward is developing.
One last consideration that suggests the low $0.09xx area is likely a stronger support when compared to the $0.10 area: I had detailed in a previous day's post why I initially thought this would be the case. One additional technical consideration has materialized since then.
I note that when we entered the low $0.10 area, 7/287/31, we more or less just crawled sideways in that area with little strength shown. The lows were $0.1010, $0.1005, $0.1000 and $0.1010 and then slipped consistently below $0.10. The VWAPs, already in decline, were $0.1113, $0.1051, $0.1047 and $0.1040 for the same period and continued to decline even as the lows initially held steady.
In contrast, as we entered the low $0.09xx range the VWAP dropped below $0.10 on 8/1 (the first highvolume day, ~1,072MM shares traded), plunged to $0.0904 on the second consecutive highvolume (~2.122MM shares) day on 8/4 and price has been clawing upward since the third relatively highvolume day (~732K) of 8/5. Note we closed below $0.09 at $0.087 and $0.0892 on 8/4 and 8/5 with lows of $0.0851. VWAPs 8/1 onward: $0.0904, $0.0928, $0.0930, $0.0971 and $0.0957 and our closes have been in the mid$0.09 area and slightly above since 8/6.
So in contrast to the $0.10 low support, the low $0.09xx area had a penetration to the middle $0.08xx area and a strong "bounce" back up into the low and middle $0.09xx area. Now it needs to hold for an extended period. If it does so over the next traditionally weak twoweek period I think the case is made.
The only thing missing is strong volume. But since 8/5, the second day with a low of $0.0851, we've had a trend of improving volume. In thousands beginning 8/5: 731.66, 120.92, 260.11 and 336.54.
Caveat: We do need to keep in mind that the last week and first week of each month has shown better strength than the two middle weeks though. We don't know if this pattern continues or not.
I've been mentioning the daily short percentage will be choppy as it moves towards a more normal reading unless volume remains low. Volume, although slowly improving, is still low and "choppy" manifested as we've seen daily short percentage move from 40% to 1.92% and up to 46.6% today. I noted it wouldn't stay at that low reading though and we should see price hold up relatively well. As seen above, price is holding fairly well thus far.
Speaking of price, the day's outliers were the two buys at the high of $0.0998 for 1K and 10K at 14:43 and 14:57. The next lower price of $0.0989 for 5K was in reach of a number of trades with volume at $0.0980 but it was a single small trade. So if one wanted to check for effects of a more representative high, the $0.098 prices would seem most reasonable.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 5.73%, 0.00%, 01.48%, 29.38% and 3,039.26% respectively. Price spread today was 10.28% vs. 3.96%, 8.77%, 17.51%, 29.26%, 14.36%, 5.84%, 8.70%, 16.32% and 25.74% (23.76% if $0.1250 used as high) on prior days.
If we use $0.098 as the days high, the movement of the high is 1.80% instead of 0% and the spread becomes 8.29% instead of 10.28%.
The larger trades (>= 15K) occurred on 2 of the 42 trades, 4.76%. These 127,864 shares were 37.99% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0960. Both were sells. They were also outliers in that they were 38.3K and 89.5K trades with the next largest being 14K.
The other 40 trades, 95.24% of the day's trades, traded 208,673 shares, 62.01% of the days volume. The VWAP was $0.0955. 12 trades, 30.00%, were buys and accounted for 83,435 shares, 39.98% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0969. 28 trades, 70.00%, were sells and accounted for 125,238 shares, 60.02% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0946.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes. Note the first period contains the day's largest trade of 89.5K for $0.0952 and the last period includes the next largest, 38.3K for $0.0980.
09:3510:48: 145000 shrs, 43.09% of vol, VWAP $0.0952, 006.6% buys
10:5413:15: 022501 shrs, 06.69% of vol, VWAP $0.0909, 000.0% buys
13:4014:43: 038936 shrs, 11.57% of vol, VWAP $0.0953, 091.0% buys
14:4715:07: 029300 shrs, 08.71% of vol, VWAP $0.0973, 034.1% buys
15:2615:35: 020000 shrs, 05.94% of vol, VWAP $0.0956, 020.0% buys
15:5215:59: 080800 shrs, 24.01% of vol, VWAP $0.0976, 030.3% buys
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary price range. Note the third range has the day's largest trade, 89.5K for $0.0952 and the last range includes the second largest, 38.3K for $0.098.
$0.0905$0.0911: 022501 shrs, 06.69% of vol, VWAP $0.0909, 000.0% buys
$0.0935$0.0935: 002000 shrs, 00.59% of vol, VWAP $0.0935, 000.0% buys
$0.0941$0.0954: 205800 shrs, 61.15% of vol, VWAP $0.0951, 019.2% buys
$0.0960$0.0965: 023400 shrs, 06.95% of vol, VWAP $0.0963, 000.0% buys
$0.0980$0.0998: 082836 shrs, 24.61% of vol, VWAP $0.0983, 053.0% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
07/24 $0.1297 01.48% 49.1%
07/25 $0.1178 09.19% 23.8%
07/28 $0.1113 05.51% 30.0%
07/29 $0.1051 05.60% 45.7%
07/30 $0.1047 00.42% 12.2%
07/31 $0.1040 00.64% 19.3%
08/01 $0.0994 04.47% 59.5%
08/04 $0.0904 09.03% 25.6%
08/05 $0.0915 +01.27% 37.9%
08/06 $0.0930 +00.27% 65.4%
08/07 $0.0971 +04.41% 37.4%
08/08 $0.0957 01.48% 24.8%
Here's my newer inflection point calculations. Still a low volume day, but again improved. We had seen improvement across the board for three consecutive days. Today breaks the trend with 2 periods (10 and 200day) marginally improved while four are marginally weaker. I don't posit the trend of improvement is completely broken yet  volume needs to stabilize and/or improve to make such a determination. For now I'm thinking just normal fluctuations in an improving trend. We'll see.
_5day_ 10day_ _25day_ _50day_ _100day_ _200day_
108.47 0135.29 0468.19 0737.60 02900.85 08684.19
212.09 0286.96 0610.67 0950.02 03358.38 09626.50
134.82 0171.43 0372.29 0494.57 01149.54 04728.89
258.75 0295.48 0561.16 0900.25 03010.39 09172.28
251.21 0275.95 0515.38 0824.90 02406.96 08009.76
172.47 0273.65 0498.46 0804.62 02358.17 07891.15
196.55 0411.22 0693.93 1031.21 02933.83 09517.86
169.15 0375.41 0548.97 0943.54 02455.30 07964.20
119.68 0334.46 0456.94 0871.46 02126.06 06889.45
079.77 0273.98 0369.85 0740.27 01593.87 05112.74
117.43 0237.84 0378.85 0755.29 01625.42 05065.95
"Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection point changes here are are in the latest daily post above.
08/07/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 42, MinTrSz: 500, MaxTrSz: 23000, Vol: 260112, AvTrSz: 6193
Min. Pr: 0.0960, Max Pr: 0.0998, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.0971
# Buys, Shares: 11 97300, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.0976
# Sells, Shares: 30 152812, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.0967
# Unkn, Shares: 1 10000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0998
Buy:Sell 1:1.57 (37.41% "buys"), DlyShts 5000 (01.92%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 3.27%
Volume improved to the very low end of what I would think useful for giving some weight to what the technical stuff suggests. But not anywhere near what's needed for confidence at any level.
Although buy percentage weakened, the VWAP moved up nicely. I suspect the buy percentage is due to the dregs of the two highvolume days 8/1 and 8/4. Anyway, this gives some support that the low $0.09xx price might give the support better than $0.10 that I was thinking would materialize. Time, time, time to wait and wait and wait to see.
Today is the third consecutive day that has some signs that this may work out to be stronger support. Can't say it will not let us drop, but I believe it will take longer to move decisively below $0.09 than it did to move below $0.10.
No sign of the 600K bid today. However, we did see 100K bids from CDEL, CSTI and ETRF mixed in with the normal stuff.
I mentioned yesterday the improvement in daily short percentage continued and ended with "Do keep in mind that the daily short percentage will be choppy as it moves towards a more normal reading unless volume remains low". Today volume doubled and the "choppy" manifested as we see a daily short percentage move from 40% to 1.92% today. It won't stay there though and as it makes its "leg up", choppy or not, we should see price hold up relatively well. All bets off if we get MMshare days.
Let's add in that we'll be exiting what had been weak periods for a long time  the first and last week of each month. We don't know if the pattern holds because this month the 8Ks affected everything.
CORRECTION: "Let's add in that we'll be exiting what had been weak periods for a long time  the first and last week of each month" was 180 degrees out.
First and last weeks of the month had displayed *less* weakness, and even some tendency to rise, and we "sagged" in the middle weeks.
No really egregious outliers were seen today.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 6.55%, 1.84%, 04.41%, 115.10% and 89.68% respectively. Price spread today was 3.96% vs. 8.77%, 17.51%, 29.26%, 14.36%, 5.84%, 8.70%, 16.32% 25.74% (23.76% if $0.1250 used as high) and 20.82% on prior days.
The larger trades (>= 15K) occurred on 4 of the 42 trades, 9.52%. These 75,001 shares were 28.83% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0974. 1 of the larger trades, 25.00%, was a buy of 18,500 shares, 24.67% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0970. 3 of the larger trades, 75.00%, were sells of 56,501 shares, 75.33% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0975.
The other 38 trades, 90.48% of the day's trades, traded 185,111 shares, 71.17% of the days volume. The VWAP was $0.0970. 10 trades, 26.32%, were buys and accounted for 78,800 shares, 42.57% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0977. 27 trades, 71.05%, were sells and accounted for 96,311 shares, 52.03% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0962. 1 trade, 2.63%, was an unknown and accounted for 10,000 shares, 5.40% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0998.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes. Note the first period contains the low outlier of 600 shares at $0.0851 and the 11:08 ending period contains the 109 share $0.10 trade.
09:4310:48: 075601 shrs, 29.06% of vol, VWAP $0.0980, 042.3% buys
10:5513:16: 059600 shrs, 22.91% of vol, VWAP $0.0963, 016.8% buys
13:3113:34: 020000 shrs, 07.69% of vol, VWAP $0.0979, 100.0% buys
13:3715:30: 040520 shrs, 15.58% of vol, VWAP $0.0964, 029.1% buys
15:3815:38: 033500 shrs, 12.88% of vol, VWAP $0.0978, 070.1% buys
15:4115:53: 030891 shrs, 11.88% of vol, VWAP $0.0963, 000.0% buys
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary price range.
$0.0960$0.0964: 113111 shrs, 43.49% of vol, VWAP $0.0962, 001.6% buys
$0.0970$0.0979: 085500 shrs, 32.87% of vol, VWAP $0.0975, 100.0% buys
$0.0980$0.0987: 051501 shrs, 19.80% of vol, VWAP $0.0981, 019.4% buys
$0.0998$0.0998: 010000 shrs, 03.84% of vol, VWAP $0.0998, 000.0% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
07/23 $0.1317 +00.16% 62.0%
07/24 $0.1297 01.48% 49.1%
07/25 $0.1178 09.19% 23.8%
07/28 $0.1113 05.51% 30.0%
07/29 $0.1051 05.60% 45.7%
07/30 $0.1047 00.42% 12.2%
07/31 $0.1040 00.64% 19.3%
08/01 $0.0994 04.47% 59.5%
08/04 $0.0904 09.03% 25.6%
08/05 $0.0915 +01.27% 37.9%
08/06 $0.0930 +00.27% 65.4%
08/07 $0.0971 +04.41% 37.4%
Here's my newer inflection point calculations. Still a low volume day again, but improved. Regardless that it makes suspect any substantive evaluation of the changes in the calculation results, it's good to see improvement across the board for the third consecutive day.
_5day_ 10day_ _25day_ _50day_ _100day_ _200day_
011.84 0048.89 0313.49 0542.03 01873.47 06304.63
108.47 0135.29 0468.19 0737.60 02900.85 08684.19
212.09 0286.96 0610.67 0950.02 03358.38 09626.50
134.82 0171.43 0372.29 0494.57 01149.54 04728.89
258.75 0295.48 0561.16 0900.25 03010.39 09172.28
251.21 0275.95 0515.38 0824.90 02406.96 08009.76
172.47 0273.65 0498.46 0804.62 02358.17 07891.15
196.55 0411.22 0693.93 1031.21 02933.83 09517.86
169.15 0375.41 0548.97 0943.54 02455.30 07964.20
119.68 0334.46 0456.94 0871.46 02126.06 06889.45
079.77 0273.98 0369.85 0740.27 01593.87 05112.74
"Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection point changes here are in the latest daily post above.
08/06/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 22, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 40000, Vol: 120924, AvTrSz: 5497
Min. Pr: 0.0901, Max Pr: 0.0980, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.0930
# Buys, Shares: 10 79050, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.0937
# Sells, Shares: 12 41874, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.0918
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1.89:1 (65.37% "buys"), DlyShts 48450 (40.07%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 115.70%
The very low volume would make all traditional TA commentary end with "but the low volume suggests little weight should be given ...", so I'll leave it at that today.
Yesterday I noted an improved buy percentage and VWAP on lower, but still quite reasonable for us, volume provided the possibility that support would materialize and hold and prove to be stronger than the $0.10 price.
Today offers the first suggestion it might work out, but for the very low volume. That volume is unreasonable, even for us. So assessment must go on hold until either time or volume, or both, give us better clues.
No sign of the 600K bid today.
The improvement in daily short percentage continued, going from 3.91% to 21.57% and now 40.07%. I'm glad to see this because otherwise I would have expected VWAP to weaken rather than improve as it did. Do keep in mind that the daily short percentage will be choppy as it moves towards a more normal reading unless volume remains low.
We had outliers at the high end of the price range today. Two trades far out of range occurred. At 15:39, 5K was bought for $0.1080, and at 15:43 700 shares sold for $0.0970. The next lower price was $0.0940 for 10K and then $0.0938, $0.0937, ... all with some volume and within a "normal" progressive range.
If one wanted to look at some numbers with the outliers discounted, $0.0940 as the high seems appropriate.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 5.88%, 2.00%, 00.27%, 83.47% and 69.30% respectively. Price spread today was 8.77% vs. 17.51%, 29.26%, 14.36%, 5.84%, 8.70%, 16.32%, 25.74% (23.76% if $0.1250 used as high), 20.82% and 6.22% on prior days.
Using $0.094 for the high, the movement of the high price would be 6.00%, rather than the reported 2.00%, and the spread for the day would be 4.33%, rather than 8.77%.
There was only one larger trade, a 40K buy for $0.0935.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes. Note the first period contains the low outlier of 600 shares at $0.0851 and the 11:08 ending period contains the 109 share $0.10 trade.
09:3010:05: 013450 shrs, 11.12% of vol, VWAP $0.0937, 100.0% buys
10:4211:13: 053900 shrs, 44.57% of vol, VWAP $0.0932, 092.8% buys
11:1912:17: 018774 shrs, 15.53% of vol, VWAP $0.0907, 021.3% buys
14:4115:06: 018600 shrs, 15.38% of vol, VWAP $0.0923, 035.5% buys
15:2915:59: 016200 shrs, 13.40% of vol, VWAP $0.0953, 030.9% buys
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary price range.
$0.0901$0.0901: 017274 shrs, 14.29% of vol, VWAP $0.0901, 000.0% buys
$0.0910$0.0930: 032900 shrs, 27.21% of vol, VWAP $0.0926, 057.8% buys
$0.0935$0.0940: 065050 shrs, 53.79% of vol, VWAP $0.0936, 084.6% buys
$0.0970$0.0980: 005700 shrs, 04.71% of vol, VWAP $0.0979, 087.7% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
07/22 $0.1315 00.26% 50.6%
07/23 $0.1317 +00.16% 62.0%
07/24 $0.1297 01.48% 49.1%
07/25 $0.1178 09.19% 23.8%
07/28 $0.1113 05.51% 30.0%
07/29 $0.1051 05.60% 45.7%
07/30 $0.1047 00.42% 12.2%
07/31 $0.1040 00.64% 19.3%
08/01 $0.0994 04.47% 59.5%
08/04 $0.0904 09.03% 25.6%
08/05 $0.0915 +01.27% 37.9%
08/06 $0.0930 +00.27% 65.4%
Here's my newer inflection point calculations. A very low volume day day again makes suspect any substantive evaluation of the changes in the calculation results. Still, it's good to see improvement across the board for the second consecutive day.
_5day_ 10day_ _25day_ _50day_ _100day_ _200day_
018.40 0053.47 0308.37 0554.64 01849.94 06254.12
011.84 0048.89 0313.49 0542.03 01873.47 06304.63
108.47 0135.29 0468.19 0737.60 02900.85 08684.19
212.09 0286.96 0610.67 0950.02 03358.38 09626.50
134.82 0171.43 0372.29 0494.57 01149.54 04728.89
258.75 0295.48 0561.16 0900.25 03010.39 09172.28
251.21 0275.95 0515.38 0824.90 02406.96 08009.76
172.47 0273.65 0498.46 0804.62 02358.17 07891.15
196.55 0411.22 0693.93 1031.21 02933.83 09517.86
169.15 0375.41 0548.97 0943.54 02455.30 07964.20
119.68 0334.46 0456.94 0871.46 02126.06 06889.45
"Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection point changes here are in the latest daily post above.
08/05/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 76, MinTrSz: 109, MaxTrSz: 50000, Vol: 731659, AvTrSz: 9627
Min. Pr: 0.0851, Max Pr: 0.1000, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.0928
# Buys, Shares: 31 275793, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.0936
# Sells, Shares: 42 402633, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.0923
# Unkn, Shares: 3 53233, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0921
Buy:Sell 1:1.46 (37.69% "buys"), DlyShts 157826 (21.57%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 39.20%
Yesterday the 8K trashed the low $0.09xx support thought I have been expressing, at least for the day. Today an improved buy percentage and VWAP on lower, but still quite reasonable for us, volume provides the possibility that support will materialize and hold and prove to be stronger than the $0.10 price, in which I had little faith. Time will tell I guess.
Yesterday I thought 600K had been taken out. Wrong! It appeared today around 11:11 via NITE as 610K.
As buy percentage improved and the expected effects of high volume combined with low daily short percentage appeared, we had the predicted improvement in daily short percentage from 3.91% to 21.57%. I'm glad to see this because otherwise I would have expected VWAP to weaken rather than improve as it did.
We had outliers at both ends of the price range today. At the low end was a single sell of 600 shares for $0.0851 at 9:30:06, the second trade of the day. It was 3.30% below the next higher price of $0.0880, which had several trades and some volume and was within range of the next higher trading prices. Additionally, this single sell was "bracketed by the first and third trades, two buys of 300 shares (day's first trade) and 10K shares (third trade). It was 7.50% below these two trades.
At the high end was one 109 share buy at $0.10, 4.82% above the next lower price which was also a single buy, but of 10K at $0.0954 and within range of the next lower price of $0.1049 which had several trades and some volume.
If one wanted to look at some numbers with these low and high outliers discounted, $0.880 for the low and $0.0954 for the high seems appropriate.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 0.00%, 9.09%, 01.27%, 65.05% and 90.15% respectively. Price spread today was 17.51% vs 29.26%, 14.36%, 5.84%, 8.70%, 16.32%, 25.74% (23.76% if $0.1250 used as high), 20.82%, 6.22% and 2.31% on prior days.
Using $0.880 and $0.0954 for the low and high respectively, the movement of the low and high prices would be 3.41% and 13.27% respectively, rather than the reported 0% and 9.09%, and the spread for the day would be 8.41%, rather than 17.51%.
I'm still waiting for things to settle a bit. Maybe as it does we'll see some signs that price won't touch and go below our prior intraday low, $0.08. The thought that we'd "touch and go below" yesterday was based only on how things have always behaved. Seeing an improved buy percentage and VWAP moving further above $0.09 gives hope.
That also adds a suggestion that we could see the expected "stronger" support at the low $0.09xx range subsequent to the 8K MDA effects on the day of it's filing. Right now that's just hopium. Seeing support in a trend with some strengthening metrics are needed to convert it to more than that.
The larger trades (>= 15K) occurred on 10 of the 76 trades, 13.16%. These 363,000 shares were 48.94% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0916. 4 of the larger trades, 40.00%, were buys of 119,000 shares, 32.78% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0915. 5 of the larger trades, 50.00%, were sells of 194,000 shares, 53.44% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0915. 1 of the larger trades, 10.00%, was unknown, comprising 50,000 shares, 13.77% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0920.
The other 66 trades, 86.84% of the day's trades, traded 378,659 shares, 51.06% of the days volume. The VWAP was $0.0915. 27 trades, 40.91%, were buys and accounted for 161,793 shares, 42.73% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0922. 37 trades, 56.06%, were sells and accounted for 213,633 shares, 56.42% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0909. 2 trades, 3.03%, were unknowns and accounted for 3,233 shares, 0.85% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0935.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes. Note the first period contains the low outlier of 600 shares at $0.0851 and the 11:08 ending period contains the 109 share $0.10 trade.
09:3010:48: 123900 shrs, 16.71% of vol, VWAP $0.0919, 070.5% buys
10:5811:08: 020109 shrs, 02.71% of vol, VWAP $0.0949, 090.4% buys
11:1011:39: 091867 shrs, 12.39% of vol, VWAP $0.0920, 009.0% buys
11:4313:58: 096633 shrs, 13.03% of vol, VWAP $0.0922, 041.4% buys
14:0014:00: 216100 shrs, 29.14% of vol, VWAP $0.0914, 002.3% buys
14:0114:05: 042350 shrs, 05.71% of vol, VWAP $0.0887, 037.7% buys
14:0914:35: 095100 shrs, 12.82% of vol, VWAP $0.0915, 100.0% buys
14:3714:46: 019300 shrs, 02.60% of vol, VWAP $0.0901, 057.0% buys
15:1715:46: 036300 shrs, 04.89% of vol, VWAP $0.0902, 000.0% buys
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary price range.
$0.0851$0.0851: 000600 shrs, 00.08% of vol, VWAP $0.0851, 000.0% buys
$0.0880$0.0895: 050350 shrs, 06.79% of vol, VWAP $0.0887, 031.7% buys
$0.0900$0.0924: 613933 shrs, 82.78% of vol, VWAP $0.0915, 035.0% buys
$0.0925$0.0949: 066667 shrs, 08.99% of vol, VWAP $0.0934, 059.6% buys
$0.0954$0.0954: 010000 shrs, 01.35% of vol, VWAP $0.0954, 100.0% buys
$0.1000$0.1000: 000109 shrs, 00.01% of vol, VWAP $0.1000, 100.0% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
07/21 $0.1318 01.94% 34.4%
07/22 $0.1315 00.26% 50.6%
07/23 $0.1317 +00.16% 62.0%
07/24 $0.1297 01.48% 49.1%
07/25 $0.1178 09.19% 23.8%
07/28 $0.1113 05.51% 30.0%
07/29 $0.1051 05.60% 45.7%
07/30 $0.1047 00.42% 12.2%
07/31 $0.1040 00.64% 19.3%
08/01 $0.0994 04.47% 59.5%
08/04 $0.0904 09.03% 25.6%
08/05 $0.0915 +01.27% 37.9%
Here's my newer inflection point calculations.
_5day_ 10day_ _25day_ _50day_ _100day_ _200day_
052.40 0075.51 0357.46 0644.63 02037.68 06679.46
018.40 0053.47 0308.37 0554.64 01849.94 06254.12
011.84 0048.89 0313.49 0542.03 01873.47 06304.63
108.47 0135.29 0468.19 0737.60 02900.85 08684.19
212.09 0286.96 0610.67 0950.02 03358.38 09626.50
134.82 0171.43 0372.29 0494.57 01149.54 04728.89
258.75 0295.48 0561.16 0900.25 03010.39 09172.28
251.21 0275.95 0515.38 0824.90 02406.96 08009.76
172.47 0273.65 0498.46 0804.62 02358.17 07891.15
196.55 0411.22 0693.93 1031.21 02933.83 09517.86
169.15 0375.41 0548.97 0943.54 02455.30 07964.20
"Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection point changes here are in the latest daily post above.
08/04/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 154, MinTrSz: 7, MaxTrSz: 109555, Vol: 2122206, AvTrSz: 13781
Min. Pr: 0.0851, Max Pr: 0.1100, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.0904
# Buys, Shares: 57 542417, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.0907
# Sells, Shares: 94 1553289, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.0903
# Unkn, Shares: 3 26500, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0872
Buy:Sell 1:2.86 (25.56% "buys"), DlyShts 83000 (03.91%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 5.34%
A form 8K MDA was filed wherein we find the warrants have been upped to convert at 1.7 shares and that Tom Granville has resigned and will be consulting with the company.
I've been saying that the low $0.09x area seems to be a potential stronger support area. The 8K trashed that possibility, at least for the day. It's time to wait and see again for a few days.
The 600K $0.085 seems to have been taken out today. We have a history of repeatedly making new alltime intraday lows. I don't know if that pattern will hold with all the potential positives, but with the negatives also looming, it seems likely.
As buy percentage dropped from yesterday's 59.5% to 25.6% today on high volume, the daily short sales percentage "leg up" that would normally be underway was interrupted. Short percentage dropped to 3.91% from the 16.25% improvement from 0.07%. Since we have high volume again, we'll see another cycle start (if the effects of the 8K are mostly over) with an increased short percentage as soon as tomorrow, Tuesday and almost certainly by Wednesday. This will help stabilize the price for a short period.
Another day of high volume and spread today delivers many potential outliers over a wide price range at the high end. But with the apparent 8K effects there's little to be gained from examining the effects of discounting them. When things settle down the value of discounting them in trying to help assessment of sentiment or trends will return.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 11.45%, 0.09%, 09.03%, 97.91% and 52.38% respectively. Price spread today was 29.26% vs. 14.36%, 5.84%, 8.70%, 16.32%, 25.74% (23.76% if $0.1250 used as high), 20.82%, 6.22%, 2.31% and 2.69% on prior days.
In the traditional TA area, I think waiting for things to settle a bit is prudent. The only thing I guess is that, as in the past, we'll touch and go below our prior intraday low, $0.08. But this is based only on how things have always behaved.
The larger trades (>= 15K) occurred on 38 of the 154 trades, 24.68%. These 1,233,073 shares were 58.10% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0902. 8 of the larger trades, 21.05%, were buys of 214,425 shares, 17.39% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0902. 30 of the larger trades, 78.95%, were sells of 1,018,648 shares, 82.61% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0991.
The other 116 trades, 75.32% of the day's trades, traded 889,133 shares, 41.90% of the days volume. The VWAP was $0.0907. 49 trades, 42.24%, were buys and accounted for 327,992 shares, 36.89% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0911. 64 trades, 55.17%, were sells and accounted for 534,641 shares, 60.13% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0905. 3 trades, 2.59%, were unknowns and accounted for 26,500 shares, 2.98% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0872.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes.
09:3009:49: 010499 shrs, 00.49% of vol, VWAP $0.1085, 100.0% buys
10:0910:24: 091500 shrs, 04.31% of vol, VWAP $0.0958, 010.9% buys
10:3210:59: 173000 shrs, 08.15% of vol, VWAP $0.0933, 005.8% buys
11:1311:14: 020000 shrs, 00.94% of vol, VWAP $0.0922, 000.0% buys
11:3311:55: 135000 shrs, 06.36% of vol, VWAP $0.0930, 005.2% buys
12:0112:19: 629950 shrs, 29.68% of vol, VWAP $0.0898, 012.7% buys
12:3512:50: 077445 shrs, 03.65% of vol, VWAP $0.0894, 087.1% buys
13:0613:26: 154300 shrs, 07.27% of vol, VWAP $0.0893, 046.7% buys
13:3413:56: 281000 shrs, 13.24% of vol, VWAP $0.0934, 033.8% buys
14:0014:00: 025000 shrs, 01.18% of vol, VWAP $0.0948, 100.0% buys
14:4514:53: 057680 shrs, 02.72% of vol, VWAP $0.0902, 004.6% buys
15:1215:29: 178300 shrs, 08.40% of vol, VWAP $0.0865, 020.1% buys
15:3015:44: 126657 shrs, 05.97% of vol, VWAP $0.0860, 077.6% buys
15:5015:57: 161875 shrs, 07.63% of vol, VWAP $0.0861, 017.6% buys
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary price range.
$0.0851$0.0870: 459852 shrs, 21.67% of vol, VWAP $0.0861, 027.7% buys
$0.0875$0.0896: 369925 shrs, 17.43% of vol, VWAP $0.0886, 025.8% buys
$0.0900$0.0922: 583430 shrs, 27.49% of vol, VWAP $0.0905, 027.8% buys
$0.0926$0.0949: 588000 shrs, 27.71% of vol, VWAP $0.0933, 017.0% buys
$0.0950$0.0961: 073500 shrs, 03.46% of vol, VWAP $0.0952, 040.8% buys
$0.0989$0.0990: 017000 shrs, 00.80% of vol, VWAP $0.0990, 100.0% buys
$0.1000$0.1099: 005500 shrs, 00.26% of vol, VWAP $0.1072, 100.0% buys
$0.1100$0.1100: 004999 shrs, 00.24% of vol, VWAP $0.1100, 100.0% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
07/18 $0.1344 00.60% 64.9%
07/21 $0.1318 01.94% 34.4%
07/22 $0.1315 00.26% 50.6%
07/23 $0.1317 +00.16% 62.0%
07/24 $0.1297 01.48% 49.1%
07/25 $0.1178 09.19% 23.8%
07/28 $0.1113 05.51% 30.0%
07/29 $0.1051 05.60% 45.7%
07/30 $0.1047 00.42% 12.2%
07/31 $0.1040 00.64% 19.3%
08/01 $0.0994 04.47% 59.5%
08/04 $0.0904 09.03% 25.6%
Here's my newer inflection point calculations.
_5day_ 10day_ _25day_ _50day_ _100day_ _200day_
054.16 0081.33 0378.70 0704.36 02177.30 07014.61
052.40 0075.51 0357.46 0644.63 02037.68 06679.46
018.40 0053.47 0308.37 0554.64 01849.94 06254.12
011.84 0048.89 0313.49 0542.03 01873.47 06304.63
108.47 0135.29 0468.19 0737.60 02900.85 08684.19
212.09 0286.96 0610.67 0950.02 03358.38 09626.50
134.82 0171.43 0372.29 0494.57 01149.54 04728.89
258.75 0295.48 0561.16 0900.25 03010.39 09172.28
251.21 0275.95 0515.38 0824.90 02406.96 08009.76
172.47 0273.65 0498.46 0804.62 02358.17 07891.15
196.55 0411.22 0693.93 1031.21 02933.83 09517.86
"Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection point changes here are in the latest daily post above.
08/01/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 95, MinTrSz: 1, MaxTrSz: 50000, Vol: 1072327, AvTrSz: 11288
Min. Pr: 0.0961, Max Pr: 0.1099, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.0994
# Buys, Shares: 61 638409, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.0996
# Sells, Shares: 34 433918, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.0990
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1.47:1 (59.53% "buys"), DlyShts 174305 (16.25%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 40.17%
Yesterday's few morsels of "good news", which weren't "all that", vanished in a puff of smoke as the projected "not that strong" support at $0.10 finally apparently gave way. I didn't expect it this rapidly and with this kind of volume though. I rather envisioned an extended lowvolume sag initially, as we dipped our toes into the frigid realms below $0.10, and then a volume spike as we jumped completely into those frigid waters. I guess folks decided to just "take the plunge".
I've been saying that the low $0.09x area seems to be a potential stronger support area. The first inkling that may support that appeared today as we saw a 600K bid at $0.085 from NITE. I suspect it is a standing order  we'll have to keep an eye open to confirm that.
What seems to happen with larger bids like that is that better bids begin to stack up just above it for a while, supporting price. The question is will that happen as time passes and will the 600K remain, be moved up or what. Parts of it could be parceled out at higher or lower prices. Last time we had this situation, what I just described occurred and eventually supporting bids moved to match the big one, giving us a total around 784K, IIRC, and once we got to that price in trading we blew through the whole quantity in just a few days and went on to new lows.
One concern, prompted by those 600K bid thoughts, is that we have a history of repeatedly making new alltime lows. I don't know if that pattern will hold with the new factors (DDG as CEO, NS999 nearing testing per some APC comments from Altoona works tweets, longoverdue "significant sales", ...), but it's possibility of which we need to be aware.
One thing we need to keep in mind is that "better support" was only relative to the low $0.10 potential support. The "better support" might be relatively weak too as things have changed since the periods I used to identify the low $0.09xx support level.
See my post of 7/25 in the prior blog for details of my thoughts about that.
Looking at today's stuff ...
I recently commented on the extremely low daily short sales being normal after very large volume spikes, the continuation of that behavior being normal, and generally this low trend will start to end on the third or fourth day after the latest highvolume day. So we can look for it to start to change tomorrow [Friday] or Monday.
Well, all that is holding true: today (Friday) daily short sales "improved" from the prior 0.07% to 16.25% today, no doubt helped out by the buy percentage improvement from 19.3% to 59.5%. Every time we break below a support price level we get a jump in buy percentage, ISTM. Anyway, normally a choppy trend up would appear. This choppy one is almost certain as the high volume today will cause another severe drop in daily short sales in the next day or two. Look for some price erosion to appear, although how much is something I've not tried to quantify. I think it will be minimal from the prices prior to the short sales percentage decline again.
Because of the high volume and spread today there are many potential outliers over a wide price range at the high end. I'll limit myself to only the most egregious of these. The high priced candidates, totaling 2.5K shares, occurred in the first 31 minutes of trading and included buys of 2K at $0.1089 and three potential "fishing lures" of 200 for $0.1079 and 2 x 100 shares for $0.1099. The first price lower, which at least had some volume (two sells totaling 35K), was priced at $0.1060, down 3.55% from $0.1099. Using that as a high might be reasonable, but really the number of trades at a given price and the volume was relatively very thin until price got down to $0.101, down 8.1% from $0.1099.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 4.85%, 2.81%, 04.47%, 272.92% and 8615.25% respectively. Price spread today was 14.36% vs. 5.84%, 8.70%, 16.32%, 25.74% (23.76% if $0.1250 used as high), 20.82%, 6.22%, 2.31%, 2.69% and 6.08% on prior days.
In the traditional TA area, I mentioned all the minuscule improvements seen in the oscillators I watch dissipated. Today RSI, MFI, Williams %R and full stochastic went into oversold territory. Even worse, that was with "big", for us, volume.
Our close was below my shortterm descending support of the potential descending trading channel I've mentioned a couple times. This was the first one, of which I was certain, since the close of $0.1049 on 7/28 below it. Another close below the line would confirm a break out to the downside.
There is a possibility that the line is offering support and a rebound could be seen, but in the current environment I expect it would be weak and shortlived at best.
The minor bright spots mentioned, and questioned due to the daily short sales percentage being low and volume continuing to fall, were obliterated today. The outside hope was that we were in a bottoming process, but I didn't put a lot of faith in that possibility. The possibility remains, but a bit less likely now IMO.
The Bollinger lower limit continues falling, showing $0.0969 vs. $0.1009, $0.1053, $0.1098, $0.1155 and $0.1226 on prior days. The upper limit went to flattish from ascending yesterday, as mentioned, and has now begun to drop. It's showing $0.1598 vs. $0.1608, $0.1606, $0.1596, $0.1574 and $0.1549 on prior days. This means the midpoint to which we might aspire is now moving lower as time passes.
The 5, 10, 25 and 50day averages for the VWAPs again all continued down. Today the averages are $0.1049, $0.1167, $0.1318 and $0.1449, down from yesterday's $0.1086, $0.1202, $0.1339 and $0.1462. The 100day average continued falling too. Starting with Tuesday, 7/22, we have $0.1537, $0.1541, $0.1544, $0.1546, $0.1546, $0.1542, $0.1534, $0.1525 and $0.1517 today.
The larger trades (>= 15K) occurred on 20 of the 95 trades, 21.05%. These 710,895 shares were 66.29% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0994. 11 of the larger trades, 55.00%, were buys of 411,605 shares, 57.90% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0996. 9 of the larger trades, 45.00%, were sells of 299,290 shares, 42.10% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0991.
The other 75 trades, 78.95% of the day's trades, traded 361,432 shares, 33.71% of the days volume. The VWAP was $0.0993. 50 trades, 66.67%, were buys and accounted for 226,804 shares, 62.75% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0997. 25 trades, 33.33%, were sells and accounted for 134,628 shares, 37.25% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0988.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes. Note the period ending at 9:41 includes two sells totaling 35K shares at $0.1060. Period ending 09:42 includes 2 sells, ~45K at $0.101 and 50K at $0.10 and a buy of 20K at $0.10. Period ending 12:28 includes two 50K buys at $0.0999. Period ending 14:52 includes two sells at $0.0962 of 37.8K and 50K. Period ending 15:45 includes buys of two 50K at $0.099 and a 34.2K at $0.0998. The last period is only three buys, a 10K and two 50K, all at $0.10.
09:3009:41: 037501 shrs, 03.50% of vol, VWAP $0.1050, 005.3% buys
09:4209:42: 154949 shrs, 14.45% of vol, VWAP $0.1031, 021.3% buys
09:4409:51: 082605 shrs, 07.70% of vol, VWAP $0.1000, 100.0% buys
09:5410:11: 055822 shrs, 05.21% of vol, VWAP $0.1099, 001.1% buys
10:1812:28: 203650 shrs, 18.99% of vol, VWAP $0.0999, 076.4% buys
12:3014:52: 243500 shrs, 22.71% of vol, VWAP $0.0963, 030.9% buys
15:0815:45: 223300 shrs, 20.82% of vol, VWAP $0.0993, 097.8% buys
15:5315:57: 071000 shrs, 06.62% of vol, VWAP $0.1000, 100.0% buys
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary price range. Note the first range includes three sells totaling 98.8K at $0.0962. The $0.1010 ending range includes 2 x 50K buys at $0.0990, a 34.2K buy at $0.0998, 2 x 50K buys at $0.0999, buys of 40K and 50K at $0.10 with a sell of 5K at that price, and ~50K at $0.1010.
$0.0961$0.0981: 271750 shrs, 25.34% of vol, VWAP $0.0968, 018.6% buys
$0.0990$0.1010: 741976 shrs, 69.19% of vol, VWAP $0.0998, 078.9% buys
$0.1030$0.1031: 012900 shrs, 01.20% of vol, VWAP $0.1031, 000.0% buys
$0.1050$0.1079: 043501 shrs, 04.06% of vol, VWAP $0.1058, 000.5% buys
$0.1089$0.1099: 002200 shrs, 00.21% of vol, VWAP $0.1090, 100.0% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
07/17 $0.1353 10.50% 24.9%
07/18 $0.1344 00.60% 64.9%
07/21 $0.1318 01.94% 34.4%
07/22 $0.1315 00.26% 50.6%
07/23 $0.1317 +00.16% 62.0%
07/24 $0.1297 01.48% 49.1%
07/25 $0.1178 09.19% 23.8%
07/28 $0.1113 05.51% 30.0%
07/29 $0.1051 05.60% 45.7%
07/30 $0.1047 00.42% 12.2%
07/31 $0.1040 00.64% 19.3%
08/01 $0.0994 04.47% 59.5%
Regarding my newer inflection point calculations, volume moved from falling back to a more normal, for us, levels to another "big" day. Consistent with shortterm volatility, we have a second consecutive day of all periods improved. As before, until a trend becomes more stable I'm not giving these readings any real weight.
_5day_ 10day_ _25day_ _50day_ _100day_ _200day_
015.30 0086.32 0344.92 0641.01 02021.59 06782.83
054.16 0081.33 0378.70 0704.36 02177.30 07014.61
052.40 0075.51 0357.46 0644.63 02037.68 06679.46
018.40 0053.47 0308.37 0554.64 01849.94 06254.12
011.84 0048.89 0313.49 0542.03 01873.47 06304.63
108.47 0135.29 0468.19 0737.60 02900.85 08684.19
212.09 0286.96 0610.67 0950.02 03358.38 09626.50
134.82 0171.43 0372.29 0494.57 01149.54 04728.89
258.75 0295.48 0561.16 0900.25 03010.39 09172.28
251.21 0275.95 0515.38 0824.90 02406.96 08009.76
172.47 0273.65 0498.46 0804.62 02358.17 07891.15
"Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection point changes here are in the latest daily post above.
Disclosure: The author is long AXPW.
Additional disclosure: I am very experimental and sometimes do my TA in nontraditional fashions. Keep this in mind when considering anything I post and be sure and consult other sources and do your due diligence. I'm barely responsible for myself and certainly not responsible for anyone else or their actions. :)
AXPW: IntraDay Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting Beginning 07/01/2014
Links to blogs older than the 01/01/2014 version, PIPE discussions, one year charts will be found only in that and older blogs. Most historical short sales related stuff has also been chopped.
In the below chart the volume is inverted to enhance readability! Be aware when you view it!
(rightclick and open in new tab, position cursor over image to be able to zoom and scroll)
Next are modified inflection point calculation charts bracketing a price chart for comparison.
The two identically calculated inflection points are calculated differently from the original above. I have two different presentations of this newer version. The top one has all periods on the same scale. The bottom one has longer periods on the left scale and shorter periods on the right scale. The hope is that shorter period changes will be easier to spot. More work to do, this is a start, hopefully.
Other changes I want to try are still waiting for me to work on them.
(rightclick and open in new tab, position cursor over image to be able to zoom and scroll)
Older stuff for "2013 Dly Sht % of 'sells' values", Weekly 85% price summaries going back to 6/14/2012, and some daytoday VWAP changes stuff going back to 10/09 are available in AXPW: IntraDay Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting Beginning 10/1/2013.
Believing that the PIPE financing has run it's course, I'm not going to post stuff related that any more. The calculations will still be available if needed though.
07/31/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 30, MinTrSz: 500, MaxTrSz: 45000, Vol: 287546, AvTrSz: 9585
Min. Pr: 0.1010, Max Pr: 0.1069, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1040
# Buys, Shares: 10 55500, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1052
# Sells, Shares: 20 232046, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1037
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:4.18 (19.30% "buys"), DlyShts 2000 (00.70%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 0.86%
At last, some good news ... Although it's not much. Recall we had closed below my descending support for the second consecutive day, confirming a break out lower on falling, but still "big" for us, volume. Then a closing above the line yesterday was discounted by me because it was due to an outlier of $0.106 when ETRF and ATDF were fighting for bid position during the last half hour with 100K bids. I said I didn't believe it. Well, today an honest close above the line with no finagling at the end of the day.
But it's darn close  my best guess is less than a tenth of a penny. But we have to take what we can get.
Don't worry  I'll rain on the parade below.
I said as long as VWAP declines I'm sticking to my belief that the $0.10x area won't be that strong a support (yet to be seen) and that low $0.09x seems to be a potential stronger support area. Today VWAP continued to decline.
Looking at today's stuff ...
Yesterday I commented on the extremely low daily short sales being normal after very large volume spikes and provided links to some old charts where that behavior could be seen.
Today is a continuation of that behavior and also normal  even more so I guess when the buy percentage is down at 19% as it is today. Generally this very low daily short sales trend will start to end on the third or fourth day after the latest highvolume day. So we can look for it to start to change tomorrow or Monday.
Meanwhile another trait of the low daily short percentages is manifest: low and/or falling VWAPs. Those trends tend to go on longer than the daily short sales trend, which is quite choppy when it starts to change.
The potential outliers based on price today were a single $0.1069 buy of 10K shares at 11:58 and the next lower price of $0.1064, which were two buys totaling 3K shares. The next down was 20K of mixed buys and sells at $0.1063. We finally got a decent number of trades and volume at $0.1050. With today's low volume I think it's not really worth much to consider examining the effects of discounting these.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 1.00%, 1.66%, 00.64%, 15.48% and 71.83% respectively. Price spread today was 5.84% vs. 8.70%, 16.32%, 25.74% (23.76% if $0.1250 used as high), 20.82%, 6.22%, 2.31%, 2.69%, 6.08% and 5.11% on prior days.
In the traditional TA area, all the minuscule improvements seen in the oscillators I watch dissipated today. Considering the low volume and other factors seen today, not surprising I guess.
A very minor bright spot  today's low of $0.101 was a small improvement from yesterday's $0.10. But with the daily short sales where it's at and the volume continuing to fall I can't say it offers a lot of hope. The outside hope is that we are really in a bottoming process, which I mentioned was a possibility yesterday. But I didn't then, and don't now, put a lot of faith in that possibility ... at least yet. Too many things need to change before I will get a bit optimistic about that.
Another small bright spot  we traded mostly above the falling lower Bollinger limit today, now showing $0.1009 vs. $0.1053, $0.1098, $0.1155, $0.1226 and $0.1278 on prior days. A caveat: it will keep falling for some time causing the potential midpoint, to which we might recover, to move lower as the upper limit stops its ascent, which it has begun to do already. It's beginning to roll over to "flattish" today. It's showing $0.1608 vs. $0.1606, $0.1596, $0.1574, $0.1549 and $0.1532 on prior days.
The 5, 10, 25 and 50day averages for the VWAPs again all continued down. Today the averages are $0.1086, $0.1202, $0.1339 and $0.1462, down from yesterday's $0.1137, $0.1233, $0.1358 and $0.1474. The 100day average continued falling too. Starting with Friday, 7/21, we have $0.1534, $0.1537, $0.1541, $0.1544, $0.1546, $0.1546, $0.1542, $0.1534 and $0.1525 today.
The larger trades (>= 15K) occurred on 4 of the 30 trades, 13.33%. These 137,000 shares were 47.64% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1041. 0 of the larger trades, 0%, were buys of 0 shares, 0% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0. 4 of the larger trades, 100.00%, were sells of 137,000 shares, 100.00% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1041.
The other 26 trades, 86.67% of the day's trades, traded 150,546 shares, 52.36% of the days volume. The VWAP was $0.1039. 10 trades, 38.46%, were buys and accounted for 55,500 shares, 36.87% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1052. 16 trades, 61.54%, were sells and accounted for 95,046 shares, 63.13% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1032.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes.
09:3009:41: 018000 shrs, 06.26% of vol, VWAP $0.1010, 000.0% buys
09:5111:23: 095546 shrs, 33.23% of vol, VWAP $0.1024, 015.7% buys
11:4412:13: 067000 shrs, 23.30% of vol, VWAP $0.1053, 055.2% buys
12:4213:12: 023500 shrs, 08.17% of vol, VWAP $0.1063, 014.9% buys
13:5613:56: 075000 shrs, 26.08% of vol, VWAP $0.1050, 000.0% buys
14:1315:12: 008500 shrs, 02.96% of vol, VWAP $0.1031, 000.0% buys
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary price range.
$0.1010$0.1021: 098546 shrs, 34.27% of vol, VWAP $0.1019, 000.0% buys
$0.1031$0.1040: 023500 shrs, 08.17% of vol, VWAP $0.1037, 063.8% buys
$0.1050$0.1050: 132000 shrs, 45.91% of vol, VWAP $0.1050, 020.5% buys
$0.1063$0.1069: 033500 shrs, 11.65% of vol, VWAP $0.1065, 040.3% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
07/16 $0.1398 00.09% 28.9%
07/17 $0.1353 10.50% 24.9%
07/18 $0.1344 00.60% 64.9%
07/21 $0.1318 01.94% 34.4%
07/22 $0.1315 00.26% 50.6%
07/23 $0.1317 +00.16% 62.0%
07/24 $0.1297 01.48% 49.1%
07/25 $0.1178 09.19% 23.8%
07/28 $0.1113 05.51% 30.0%
07/29 $0.1051 05.60% 45.7%
07/30 $0.1047 00.42% 12.2%
07/31 $0.1040 00.64% 19.3%
Regarding my newer inflection point calculations, volume continued falling back to a more normal, for us, range. With the lower volume comes a return to "noise", but the overall weakening trend still seems in place to me.
_5day_ 10day_ _25day_ _50day_ _100day_ _200day_
039.07 0107.82 0364.54 0727.31 02092.50 07044.45
015.30 0086.32 0344.92 0641.01 02021.59 06782.83
054.16 0081.33 0378.70 0704.36 02177.30 07014.61
052.40 0075.51 0357.46 0644.63 02037.68 06679.46
018.40 0053.47 0308.37 0554.64 01849.94 06254.12
011.84 0048.89 0313.49 0542.03 01873.47 06304.63
108.47 0135.29 0468.19 0737.60 02900.85 08684.19
212.09 0286.96 0610.67 0950.02 03358.38 09626.50
134.82 0171.43 0372.29 0494.57 01149.54 04728.89
258.75 0295.48 0561.16 0900.25 03010.39 09172.28
251.21 0275.95 0515.38 0824.90 02406.96 08009.76
"Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection point changes here are omitted from the concentrator.
On my ORIGINAL inflection point calculations, readings for 5, 10, 25, 50, 100 and 200 day periods:
 1day change 
07/22 +00.1% +03.1% +03.5% +05.8% +01.0% +00.9%
07/23 +65.6% +25.4% +10.7% +10.6% +01.2% +00.8%
07/24 +50.7% +12.6% 00.7% +04.1% +01.0% +00.5%
07/25 1004.5% 127.0% 25.9% 06.3% +05.6% +00.2%
07/28 107.9% 134.6% 29.3% 29.1% 09.3% 01.0%
07/29 07.0% 05.5% +02.9% +05.1% +04.5% +00.0%
07/30 20.7% 03.9% +01.6% 07.0% 07.1% +00.1%
07/31 10.4% 06.4% 02.8% 03.9% +04.0% +00.8%
 5day change 
07/22 007.7% 080.6% +094.8% +1072.3% 052.9% +010.5%
07/23 +161.4% +120.3% +2304.9% +087.3% +046.7% +011.9%
07/24 +059.5% +058.4% 021.1% +005.4% 084.0% +002.2%
07/25 385.9% 140.3% 247.8% 072.0% +238.2% 040.4%
07/28 074.3% 635.0% 148.4% 250.6% 099.9% 054.1%
07/29 009.4% 009.1% +001.5% 001.3% +81951.9% 065.9%
07/30 048.0% 015.0% 020.0% 160.5% 226.9% 161.2%
07/31 014.8% 011.1% 006.5% 027.6% +068.2% +122.5%
 5day rate of change 
07/22 +046.1% 1261.8% +332.6% +103.9% 17068.0% +071.9%
07/23 +099.6% +052.2% +105.1% +1769.9% +037.6% +046.5%
07/24 +077.6% +083.6% 022.4% 016.9% 082.0% +014.6%
07/25 224662.6% 1365.1% 171.4% 183.9% +024.5% 133.8%
07/28 +017.8% 113.7% 092.4% +000.8% 005.3% 243.6%
07/29 009.8% +020.7% 038.4% 100.9% +074.4% 050.9%
07/30 096.3% 023.5% 057.5% 120.7% 276.3% 032.5%
07/31 018.1% 017.9% 000.3% 017.4% +079.6% +004.7%
On my NEWER inflection point calculations, for those same periods:
 1day change 
07/22 +003.26% +007.15% +005.61% +008.48% +006.41% +004.78%
07/23 +064.88% +029.19% +013.73% +013.96% +009.21% +006.37%
07/24 +035.65% +008.56% 001.66% +002.27% 001.27% 000.81%
07/25 815.94% 176.72% 049.35% 036.08% 054.84% 037.74%
07/28 095.52% 112.11% 030.43% 028.80% 015.77% 010.85%
07/29 +036.43% +040.26% +039.04% +047.94% +065.77% +050.88%
07/30 004.36% +010.50% +011.86% +005.81% +013.16% +010.97%
07/31 +002.91% +006.61% +008.16% +008.37% +020.05% +012.67%
 5day change 
07/22 +001.54% 085.85% +081.11% +143.51% +054.50% +075.77%
07/23 +151.43% +227.10% +450.84% +259.24% +133.38% +179.37%
07/24 +070.72% +077.92% +007.96% +049.85% +408.46% +430.14%
07/25 442.17% 183.09% 341.48% 152.13% 501.45% 357.00%
07/28 069.50% 319.95% 088.18% 154.33% 034.33% 037.37%
07/29 +047.81% +053.35% +093.61% +161.08% +175.20% +174.68%
07/30 022.91% +004.96% +009.47% 011.08% +018.79% +019.44%
07/31 +000.41% +006.18% +020.13% +018.16% +054.03% +041.57%
 5day rate of change 
07/22 +053.23% 365.32% +162.73% +105.85% +086.98% +109.24%
07/23 +108.12% +063.77% +141.20% +883.70% +356.95% +457.04%
07/24 017.17% +114.64% 009.29% +007.20% +034.77% +048.66%
07/25 3152.81% 2536.27% 185.45% 163.07% 262.82% 186.85%
07/28 +012.21% 107.52% 067.12% 020.11% 016.22% 034.34%
07/29 +059.34% +061.74% +099.16% +169.43% +213.33% +212.72%
07/30 055.77% 003.91% 012.91% 035.80% +007.41% +011.29%
07/31 004.02% 003.95% +015.71% +000.24% +037.48% +020.04%
Rolling 5day ORIGINAL inflection point calculation aggregate change:
******* ******* *5 Day** *10 Day * * 25Day ** 50 Day **100Day* 200 Day
07/22 5 Day 0193.69 +0108.72 0015.02 +0515.34 +0838.21 +2199.16
07/23 5 Day +0118.83 +0239.51 +0331.26 +0965.06 +1230.04 +2459.97
07/24 5 Day +0189.52 +0379.45 +0261.34 +1016.81 +0196.57 +2513.67
07/25 5 Day 0541.74 0152.97 0386.28 +0284.48 +0664.84 +1497.21
07/28 5 Day 0944.50 1124.36 0959.66 0428.42 +0000.47 +0687.32
07/29 5 Day 1033.36 1227.04 0945.05 0433.82 +0382.36 +0234.40
07/30 5 Day 1529.37 1410.55 1133.66 1130.20 0485.34 0143.45
07/31 5 Day 1756.30 1566.78 1207.87 1442.53 0154.13 +0032.32
Average change/day, 5 days
____ **5 Day *10 Day *25 Day *50 Day 100 Day 200 Day
07/22 099.22 137.71 +061.45 +007.30 394.03 +133.69
07/23 000.37 065.79 +126.05 +136.59 246.02 +195.87
07/24 000.08 010.76 +097.87 +113.54 447.76 +224.49
07/25 186.10 157.70 069.85 095.28 338.03 075.80
07/28 152.93 337.01 134.40 094.48 355.83 260.48
07/29 167.93 267.15 186.00 189.83 091.17 392.95
07/30 329.64 330.01 292.98 419.05 343.07 520.68
07/31 389.16 389.25 293.84 491.87 070.14 496.27
Rolling 5day NEWER inflection point calculation aggregate change:
******* ******* *5 Day** *10 Day * * 25Day ** 50 Day **100Day* 200 Day
07/22 5 Day 0031.02 +0010.13 0013.48 +0034.42 0129.04 0175.83
07/23 5 Day +0015.95 +0033.12 +0047.28 +0123.65 +0043.08 +0139.55
07/24 5 Day +0027.23 +0058.93 +0051.05 +0185.28 +0219.02 +0739.81
07/25 5 Day 0093.17 0048.97 0123.27 0096.59 0879.25 1901.35
07/28 5 Day 0157.93 0205.63 0231.97 0245.65 1181.08 2611.90
07/29 5 Day 0082.43 0095.93 0014.83 +0150.06 +0888.15 +1950.56
07/30 5 Day 0240.35 0242.01 0252.78 0345.61 1160.46 2918.16
07/31 5 Day 0239.37 0227.07 0201.89 0282.86 0533.48 1705.12
Average change/day, 5 days
____ **5 Day *10 Day *25 Day *50 Day 100 Day 200 Day
07/22 0014.03 0020.67 +0010.28 +0004.17 0027.39 +0039.05
07/23 +0001.14 0007.49 +0024.80 +0041.02 +0070.39 +0217.50
07/24 +0000.94 +0001.10 +0022.50 +0043.97 +0094.86 +0323.35
07/25 0028.80 0026.71 0019.22 0027.73 0154.45 0280.84
07/28 0025.28 0055.43 0032.13 0033.31 0179.50 0377.28
07/29 0010.28 0021.21 0000.27 +0023.13 +0203.44 +0425.28
07/30 0051.26 0055.03 0060.01 0093.85 0240.71 0611.54
07/31 0053.32 0057.20 0050.59 0093.63 0150.50 0488.99
Dly Sht % of 'sells' values JIC it turns out to be useful...
============ 2014 ===============
Mon. 04/28 19.56% 75.57% 10.59% 53.35% 146.92%
Mon. 05/05 06.75% 17.36% 25.05% 91.05% 26.31%
Mon. 05/12 8.83% 5.83% 55.91% 129.18% 43.96%
Mon. 05/19 114.88% 62.66% 16.13% 113.62% 202.40%
Tue. 05/27 558.01% 82.58% 62.65% 5.48%
Mon. 06/02 92.28% 106.34% 21.82% 68.00% 78.39%
Mon. 06/09 394.94% 36.50% 20.32% 3.25% 59.37%
Mon. 06/16 3.08% 20.04% 115.38% 123.91% 41.58%
Mon. 06/23 1.32% 14.66% 42.12% 4.77% 0.00%
Mon. 06/30 14.06% 35.73% 189.65% 12.10%
Mon. 07/07 49.36% 80.69% 51.65% 0.96% 25.44%
Mon. 07/14 710.00% 96.53% 18.18% 12.08% 148.85%
Mon. 07/21 43.30% 27.77% 115.18% 95.82% 55.57%
Mon. 07/28 32.52% 8.48% 2.38% 0.86%
============ 2014 ===============
Jan Avg: 54.66%, min: 09.32%, max: 130.29%
Feb Avg: 50.44%, min: 00.28%, max: 112.52%
Mar Avg: 85.68%, min: 16.78%, max: 335.39%
Apr Avg: 51.85%, min: 10.59%, max: 153.62%
May Avg: 87.09%, min: 05.48%, max: 558.01%
Jun Avg: 60.10%, min: 00.00%, max: 394.94%
Jul Avg: 82.38%, min: 00.86%, max: 710.00%
0731 Vol 0287546, Sht 0002000 00.70% LHC 0.1010 0.1069 0.1031 b:s 1:4.18
0730 Vol 0340156, Sht 0007100 02.09% LHC 0.1000 0.1087 0.1060 b:s 1:7.22
0729 Vol 1000682, Sht 0046100 04.61% LHC 0.1005 0.1169 0.1049 b:s 1:1.19
0728 Vol 2101508, Sht 0475523 22.61% LHC 0.1010 0.1270 0.1049 b:s 1:2.32
0725 Vol 1240998, Sht 0472689 38.09% LHC 0.1100 0.1329 0.1151 b:s 1:2.18[140]
0724 Vol 0357810, Sht 0174600 48.80% LHC 0.1270 0.1349 0.1300 b:s 1:1.04
0723 Vol 0099869, Sht 0043769 43.83% LHC 0.1300 0.1330 0.1324 b:s 1.63:1
0722 Vol 0169923, Sht 0023323 13.73% LHC 0.1300 0.1335 0.1310 b:s 1.02:1
0721 Vol 0546751, Sht 0155300 28.40% LHC 0.1300 0.1379 0.1301 b:s 1:1.91
0718 Vol 0321777, Sht 0168000 52.21% LHC 0.1330 0.1398 0.1398 b:s 1.85:1
0717 Vol 0126800, Sht 0011500 09.07% LHC 0.1193 0.1400 0.1350 b:s 1:3.01
0716 Vol 0452300, Sht 0058457 12.92% LHC 0.1333 0.1500 0.1399 b:s 1:2.46
0715 Vol 0078025, Sht 0036900 47.29% LHC 0.1362 0.1500 0.1400 b:s 1.04:1
0714 Vol 0104900, Sht 0063900 60.92% LHC 0.1394 0.1441 0.1400 b:s 10.66:1
0711 Vol 0138100, Sht 0027600 19.99% LHC 0.1390 0.1444 0.1406 b:s 1:3.67
0710 Vol 0075100, Sht 0000600 00.80% LHC 0.1391 0.1500 0.1402 b:s 1:4.96
0709 Vol 0336501, Sht 0110951 32.97% LHC 0.1401 0.1488 0.1488 b:s 1:1.77
0708 Vol 0219704, Sht 0093722 42.66% LHC 0.1377 0.1600 0.1450 b:s 1:1.12
0707 Vol 0500365, Sht 0176325 35.24% LHC 0.1350 0.1600 0.1400 b:s 1:2.50
0703 Vol 0170436, Sht 0013640 08.00% LHC 0.1400 0.1499 0.1499 b:s 1:1.95
0702 Vol 0073052, Sht 0037929 51.92% LHC 0.1417 0.1489 0.1450 b:s 2.65:1
0701 Vol 0326007, Sht 0089879 27.57% LHC 0.1400 0.1600 0.1411 b:s 1:3.38
0630 Vol 0675553, Sht 0079920 11.83% LHC 0.1401 0.1510 0.1403 b:s 1:5.49
0627 Vol 0098949, Sht 0000000 00.00% LHC 0.1500 0.1525 0.1510 b:s 1:2.45
0626 Vol 0075823, Sht 0002363 03.12% LHC 0.1501 0.1600 0.1501 b:s 1:2.27
0625 Vol 0161508, Sht 0050536 31.29% LHC 0.1500 0.1600 0.1539 b:s 1:3.80
0624 Vol 0426360, Sht 0053499 12.55% LHC 0.1500 0.1529 0.1501 b:s 1:6.43
0623 Vol 0195270, Sht 0002500 01.28% LHC 0.1502 0.1544 0.1520 b:s 1:34.32
0620 Vol 0147060, Sht 0048400 32.93% LHC 0.1510 0.1545 0.1520 b:s 1:3.80
0619 Vol 0188752, Sht 0078694 41.69% LHC 0.1520 0.1545 0.1545 b:s 1.97:1
0618 Vol 0085290, Sht 0045000 52.76% LHC 0.1520 0.1549 0.1544 b:s 1.19:1
0617 Vol 0376829, Sht 0059356 15.75% LHC 0.1501 0.1565 0.1550 b:s 1:3.67
0616 Vol 0087890, Sht 0002589 02.95% LHC 0.1501 0.1569 0.1550 b:s 1:21.70
0613 Vol 0026407, Sht 0007500 28.40% LHC 0.1540 0.1570 0.1541 b:s 1.09:1
0612 Vol 0047330, Sht 0001250 02.64% LHC 0.1515 0.1600 0.1540 b:s 1:4.33
0611 Vol 0166574, Sht 0029073 17.45% LHC 0.1510 0.1599 0.1515 b:s 1:6.09
0610 Vol 0172006, Sht 0046706 27.15% LHC 0.1500 0.1649 0.1501 b:s 1:2.90
0609 Vol 0298773, Sht 0210580 70.48% LHC 0.1531 0.1649 0.1600 b:s 4.60:1
0606 Vol 0315525, Sht 0121500 38.51% LHC 0.1501 0.1625 0.1550 b:s 1.05:1[139]
0605 Vol 0234725, Sht 0084400 35.96% LHC 0.1535 0.1658 0.1625 b:s 1:1.12
0604 Vol 0087850, Sht 0013400 15.25% LHC 0.1510 0.1699 0.1644 b:s 1:2.32
0603 Vol 0102057, Sht 0034507 33.81% LHC 0.1622 0.1700 0.1622 b:s 2.15:1
0602 Vol 0077384, Sht 0030515 39.43% LHC 0.1506 0.1696 0.1684 b:s 1.34:1
[139] There was one aftermarket trade of 2.5K shares that FINRAreported daily short sales don't include. Adding that to the FINRA trade volume raises it from 315,525 to 318,025 and would lower the short percentage from 38.51% to 38.20%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves from 121,500 to 124,000 and the short percentage would be 38.99%.
[140] There was one aftermarket trade of 400K shares that FINRAreported daily short sales don't include. Adding that to the FINRA trade volume raises it from 1,240,998 to 1,640,998 and would lower the short percentage from 38.09% to 28.80%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves from 472,677 to 872,677 and the short percentage would be 53.18%.
07/30/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 27, MinTrSz: 50, MaxTrSz: 100000, Vol: 340206, AvTrSz: 12600
Min. Pr: 0.1000, Max Pr: 0.1087, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1047
# Buys, Shares: 8 41400, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1044
# Sells, Shares: 19 298806, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1047
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:7.22 (12.17% "buys"), DlyShts 7100 (02.09%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 2.38%
Yesterday we closed below my descending support for the second consecutive day, confirming a break out lower on falling, but still "big", for us, volume. Today one of our "outliers", based on size misdirects us by closing above the line with a 100K sell at $0.106. The next lower priced large trade was 89K at $0.104, below the line. Regardless of these two trades, which represented ~56% of the day's volume, our VWAP fell as volume fell.
So I don't believe this "bullish" sign, especially because the 100K was taken by ATDF at a time when ETRF was battling them with it's own 100K bid. They walked each other up in the last halfhour of the day.
As long as VWAP declines I'm sticking to my belief that the $0.10x area won't be that strong a support (yet to be seen) and that low $0.09x seems to be a potential stronger support area.
Looking at today's stuff ...
For those noting the extremely low short sales percentage, this is not unexpected and not out of line with past behavior. The key is large volume, especially over multiple days, with wide spreads and then falling volume. Because of the mechanics of marketmakers and the spread offering opportunities for covering buys to neutralize their intraday short sales, they come into days like today with temporary long positions at low prices. These are then sold into the market without generating a short sale. Check the area around volume spikes on the one year summary chart posted 2/25/13 and oneyear summary chart posted 8/31/13.
There's two potential outliers based on price. One is two buys at $0.10 of 10K and 1.25K shares, which is 2.91% below the next higherpriced trade, one $0.1030 for 10K shares and several other trades in the $0.13x range for 19K more. The other pricebased outlier was the high of the day, $0.1087 for 10K shares that was 2.55% above the next lower price of $0.1060. This later price was within the trend as seven trades in the $0.1050$0.1059 range totaling 38.4K shares were the next lower prices.
If one wants to consider the larger trend, the low and high of $0.1030 and $0.1060, respectively, would be reasonable.
In terms of size, we had one set of outliers, sells of 89K @ $0.1040 and 100K @ $0.1060, the last trade of the day. These two trades were outliers because there were no other larger trades. They were 55.55% of day's volume. The 100K was the last trade of the day and was taken by ATDF while battling a 100K bid from ETRF near EOD. Since ATDF was also on the sell side at the time (and best on both sides almost all day) and daily shorts were only 7.1K, I presume this was an internal trade of some kind. I'm guessing the same for the 89K sell since ATDF was best on both sides at that time too.
These two trades were not outliers pricewise.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 0.50%, 7.01%, 00.42%, 66.00% and 84.60% respectively. Price spread today was 8.70% vs. 16.32%, 25.74% (23.76% if $0.1250 used as high), 20.82%, 6.22%, 2.31%, 2.69%, 6.08%, 5.11% and 17.35% (thanks to the two $0.1193 trades) on prior days.
If $0.1030 and $0.1060 are respectively used as the high and low, movements for the day become 2.49% for the low, 9.32% for the high and spread would be 2.91%.
In the traditional TA area, RSI made a minuscule improvement, while remaining in oversold territory, going from 23.07 to 24.54. MFI remained oversold also and also made a small improvement from~7.45 to 7.56. Momentum went from ~0.746 to ~0.757. All the other oscillators I watch behaved similarly. One does need to keep in mind that many oscillators factor in closing price and without the outlier 100K sell at $0.1060 as the last trade, most oscillators would likely have declined or stayed flat.
Two misdirections appears on traditional bar charts today. Due to the 100K sell at $0.1060 we see a higher close than yesterday's $0.1049. But note that even with the 100K $0.1060 and 89K $0.1040 sells the VWAP dropped 00.42%. If we use the 89K sell as the real close, we are still lower.
Even if we act like traditional TA folks would, that higher close would be suspect because of the severe volume falloff, from ~1.641MM, ~2.102MM, 1.001MM and today's ~0.340MM. This could be read as part of a bottoming process. That's only confirmed when price and volume start moving up moreorless together. Until then, only weakness in the higher close is suggested.
This is supported by the fourth consecutive day of lower highs and lows. It's contradicted by the close above the shortterm descending channel's support.
That's the second misdirection. If we discount the single 100K outlier, it closed below.
We again traded mostly below the stillfalling Bollinger lower limit, now showing $0.1053 vs. $0.1098, $0.1155, $0.1226 and $0.1278 on prior days. The upper limit, still going higher as would be expected with increased price volatility, is reading $0.1606 vs. $0.1596, $0.1574, $0.1549 and $0.1532 on prior days.
The 5, 10, 25 and 50day averages for the VWAPs again all continued down. Today the averages are $0.1137, $0.1233, $0.1358 and $0.1474, down from yesterday's $0.1191, $0.1269, $0.1376 and $0.1487. The 100day average continued falling too. Starting with Friday, 7/18, we have $0.1530, $0.1534, $0.1537, $0.1541, $0.1544, $0.1546, $0.1546, $0.1542 and $0.1534 today.
The larger trades (>= 15K) occurred on 2 of the 27 trades, 7.41%. These 189,000 shares were 55.55% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1051. 0 of the larger trades, 0%, were buys of 0 shares, 0% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0. 2 of the larger trades, 100.00%, were sells of 189,000 shares, 100.00% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1051.
The other 25 trades, 92.59% of the day's trades, traded 151,206 shares, 44.45% of the days volume. The VWAP was $0.1042. 8 trades, 32.00%, were buys and accounted for 41,400 shares, 27.38% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1044. 17 trades, 68.00%, were sells and accounted for 109,806 shares, 72.62% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1041.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes. Note that 100K $0.1060 sell is in the last period and the 89K sell is in the period ending at 15:22.
09:3009:30: 011250 shrs, 03.31% of vol, VWAP $0.1000, 000.0% buys
10:1510:33: 051506 shrs, 15.14% of vol, VWAP $0.1040, 009.5% buys
10:5412:36: 029000 shrs, 08.52% of vol, VWAP $0.1032, 058.6% buys
12:4915:22: 100050 shrs, 29.41% of vol, VWAP $0.1040, 000.0% buys
15:2615:44: 038400 shrs, 11.29% of vol, VWAP $0.1062, 050.8% buys
15:5815:59: 110000 shrs, 32.33% of vol, VWAP $0.1059, 000.0% buys
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary price range. Note that the $0.1040 range includes the 89K sell and the $0.160 range includes the 100K sell.
$0.1000$0.1000: 011250 shrs, 03.31% of vol, VWAP $0.1000, 000.0% buys
$0.1030$0.1035: 029000 shrs, 08.52% of vol, VWAP $0.1032, 058.6% buys
$0.1040$0.1059: 189956 shrs, 55.84% of vol, VWAP $0.1043, 012.8% buys
$0.1060$0.1087: 110000 shrs, 32.33% of vol, VWAP $0.1062, 000.0% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
07/15 $0.1399 00.51% 51.0%
07/16 $0.1398 00.09% 28.9%
07/17 $0.1353 10.50% 24.9%
07/18 $0.1344 00.60% 64.9%
07/21 $0.1318 01.94% 34.4%
07/22 $0.1315 00.26% 50.6%
07/23 $0.1317 +00.16% 62.0%
07/24 $0.1297 01.48% 49.1%
07/25 $0.1178 09.19% 23.8%
07/28 $0.1113 05.51% 30.0%
07/29 $0.1051 05.60% 45.7%
07/30 $0.1047 00.42% 12.2%
Regarding my newer inflection point calculations, volume fell back to a more normal, for us, range. Yesterday I said the trend over multiple days is more clear  no strength being suggested. Today reinforces that assessment. Even with reduced volume having reduce effect on the calculations, all six periods weakened.
_5day_ 10day_ _25day_ _50day_ _100day_ _200day_
034.35 0086.59 0355.65 0678.28 01893.01 06393.67
039.07 0107.82 0364.54 0727.31 02092.50 07044.45
015.30 0086.32 0344.92 0641.01 02021.59 06782.83
054.16 0081.33 0378.70 0704.36 02177.30 07014.61
052.40 0075.51 0357.46 0644.63 02037.68 06679.46
018.40 0053.47 0308.37 0554.64 01849.94 06254.12
011.84 0048.89 0313.49 0542.03 01873.47 06304.63
108.47 0135.29 0468.19 0737.60 02900.85 08684.19
212.09 0286.96 0610.67 0950.02 03358.38 09626.50
134.82 0171.43 0372.29 0494.57 01149.54 04728.89
258.75 0295.48 0561.16 0900.25 03010.39 09172.28
"Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection point changes here are in the latest daily post above.
07/29/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 69, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 345900, Vol: 1000682, AvTrSz: 14503
Min. Pr: 0.1005, Max Pr: 0.1169, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1051
# Buys, Shares: 22 457049, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1033
# Sells, Shares: 47 543633, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1066
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:1.19 (45.67% "buys"), DlyShts 46100 (04.61%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 8.48%
We now have a fourth touchpoint a potential descending support on a shortterm descending trading channel. So now it's validated. Unfortunately, we closed below it for the second consecutive day, confirming a break out lower on falling, but still "big", for us, volume. There's no traditional TA indications that the move lower is ending. Yesterday I noted "... We need to close above ~$0.1055 just to stay within the descending channel and ride that support down". Today's behavior says that falling line should now become resistance.
Although some think the today demonstrated strong support at $0.10, I see exactly the opposite. I'm thinking the large willing buyers in this price range are near exhausted and VWAP will continue lower.
I tried yesterday to counter that day's bearish POV with a positive "spin". The primary possibilities revolved around volume "spikes" that might suggest an end of trend was reached or very near. Also the "psychological attractiveness" of a $0.10 price could come into play. The second factor looks valid but the first factor looks totally bogus for now.
I'm sticking to my belief that the $0.10x area won't be that strong a support (yet to be seen) and that low $0.09x seems to be a potential stronger support area.
Looking at today's stuff ...
There's three potential outliers based on price. One is two buys of 1.8K and 2.5K shares at $0.1169, which is 2.10% above the next lowerpriced trade, only one, of $0.1145 for 5K shares. If we consider the $0.1145 also an outlier the $0.1169 is 2.54% above the next lower price with multiple trades and volume, $0.1140 with two buys and one sell (80K). The third was for 345.9K and is detailed next.
In terms of size, we had a few outliers compared to our norms. The biggest one was a "buy" at $0.1010 of 345.9K shares for which no bid or ask was seen. ATDF was on both sides at the time, so I suspect this was an "inhouse" trade for which the MM was establishing a position all day. The trade went off at 15:34. There was an offer that I think was involved. This is described in a comment in the APC. Briefly, around noon ATDF put in an offer of 408.8K at $0.103, which I think was partly sold off and/or reduced throughout the day until ~355K with a reduced $0.101 offer was left. We also saw a 100K sell at 15:31 (part of that 408.8K?) for $0.103 and an 80K sell at $0.114.
Only the 345.9K "buy" was an outlier in price because only two trades went at that price and only one trade lower, $0.1005 for 10K. The other two were reasonably close to the day's VWAP of $0.1051.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 0.50%, 7.95%, 05.60%, 52.39% and 90.31% respectively. Price spread today was 16.32% vs. 25.74% (23.76% if $0.1250 used as high), 20.82%, 6.22%, 2.31%, 2.69%, 6.08%, 5.11%, 17.35% (thanks to the two $0.1193 trades) and 12.53% on prior days.
In the traditional TA area, all the oscillators I watch reduced their rate of weakening but continued weakening.
We traded mostly below the stillfalling Bollinger lower limit, now showing $0.1098 vs. $0.1155, $0.1226, $0.1278 and $0.1287 on prior days. The upper limit going higher, as would be expected with increased price volatility, is reading $0.1596 vs. $0.1574, $0.1549, $0.1532 and $0.1547 on prior days.
The 5, 10, 25 and 50day averages for the VWAPs again all continued down. Today the averages are $0.1191, $0.1269, $0.1376 and $0.1487, down from yesterday's $0.1244, $0.1303, $0.1394 and $0.1499. The 100day average, which flattened yesterday, returned to dropping. Starting with Friday, 7/18, we have $0.1530, $0.1534, $0.1537, $0.1541, $0.1544, $0.1546, $0.1546 and $0.1542 today.
NOTE! Keep in mind the larger trades comments in the "outliers" discussion above.
The larger trades (>= 15K) occurred on 11 of the 69 trades, 15.94%. These 703,700 shares were 70.32% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1044. 3 of the larger trades, 27.27%, were buys of 385,900 shares, 54.84% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1021. 8 of the larger trades, 72.73%, were sells of 317,800 shares, 45.16% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1072.
The other 58 trades, 84.06% of the day's trades, traded 296,982 shares, 29.68% of the days volume. The VWAP was $0.1067. 19 trades, 32.76%, were buys and accounted for 71,149 shares, 23.96% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1098. 39 trades, 67.24%, were sells and accounted for 225,833 shares, 76.04% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1058.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes.
09:3009:30: 004451 shrs, 00.44% of vol, VWAP $0.1030, 000.0% buys
09:4210:13: 061582 shrs, 06.15% of vol, VWAP $0.1100, 029.9% buys
10:1711:30: 030300 shrs, 03.03% of vol, VWAP $0.1136, 017.5% buys
11:3412:03: 168100 shrs, 16.80% of vol, VWAP $0.1132, 035.8% buys
12:2112:51: 044000 shrs, 04.40% of vol, VWAP $0.1063, 009.1% buys
12:5913:13: 107000 shrs, 10.69% of vol, VWAP $0.1040, 000.0% buys
13:3714:56: 012349 shrs, 01.23% of vol, VWAP $0.1060, 100.0% buys
15:1015:30: 052100 shrs, 05.21% of vol, VWAP $0.1040, 002.1% buys
15:3115:31: 144900 shrs, 14.48% of vol, VWAP $0.1028, 003.4% buys
15:3415:34: 360900 shrs, 36.07% of vol, VWAP $0.1010, 095.8% buys
15:4915:49: 015000 shrs, 01.50% of vol, VWAP $0.1049, 033.3% buys
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary price range.
$0.1005$0.1030: 505251 shrs, 50.49% of vol, VWAP $0.1015, 069.4% buys
$0.1030$0.1055: 222000 shrs, 22.18% of vol, VWAP $0.1043, 005.0% buys
$0.1060$0.1089: 013349 shrs, 01.33% of vol, VWAP $0.1062, 100.0% buys
$0.1095$0.1100: 058582 shrs, 05.85% of vol, VWAP $0.1099, 036.5% buys
$0.1120$0.1145: 202100 shrs, 20.20% of vol, VWAP $0.1132, 030.2% buys
$0.1169$0.1169: 004300 shrs, 00.43% of vol, VWAP $0.1169, 100.0% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
07/14 $0.1406 00.37% 91.4%
07/15 $0.1399 00.51% 51.0%
07/16 $0.1398 00.09% 28.9%
07/17 $0.1353 10.50% 24.9%
07/18 $0.1344 00.60% 64.9%
07/21 $0.1318 01.94% 34.4%
07/22 $0.1315 00.26% 50.6%
07/23 $0.1317 +00.16% 62.0%
07/24 $0.1297 01.48% 49.1%
07/25 $0.1178 09.19% 23.8%
07/28 $0.1113 05.51% 30.0%
07/29 $0.1051 05.60% 45.7%
Regarding my newer inflection point calculations, volume was again big today. Talk about "noise" in our metrics, today is split with three improved and three worsened after yesterday's all improved. But the trend over multiple days is more clear  no strength being suggested.
_5day_ 10day_ _25day_ _50day_ _100day_ _200day_
021.38 0085.63 0343.98 0679.05 01908.65 06503.63
034.35 0086.59 0355.65 0678.28 01893.01 06393.67
039.07 0107.82 0364.54 0727.31 02092.50 07044.45
015.30 0086.32 0344.92 0641.01 02021.59 06782.83
054.16 0081.33 0378.70 0704.36 02177.30 07014.61
052.40 0075.51 0357.46 0644.63 02037.68 06679.46
018.40 0053.47 0308.37 0554.64 01849.94 06254.12
011.84 0048.89 0313.49 0542.03 01873.47 06304.63
108.47 0135.29 0468.19 0737.60 02900.85 08684.19
212.09 0286.96 0610.67 0950.02 03358.38 09626.50
134.82 0171.43 0372.29 0494.57 01149.54 04728.89
"Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection point changes here are in the latest daily post above.
07/28/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 93, MinTrSz: 66, MaxTrSz: 290000, Vol: 2101933, AvTrSz: 22601
Min. Pr: 0.1010, Max Pr: 0.1270, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1113
# Buys, Shares: 46 630533, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1148
# Sells, Shares: 46 1461400, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1099
# Unkn, Shares: 1 10000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.1070
Buy:Sell 1:2.32 (30.00% "buys"), DlyShts 475523 (22.61%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 32.52%
Yesterday I mentioned a third touchpoint occurred on a potential descending support on a shortterm descending trading channel. I also didn't know if it was valid because of the trades of $0.1193 (outliers) on 7/17 though. I didn't know whether to consider that we have an origin and two touches or not, the minimum needed to consider such a line potentially valid.
That ambiguity is now resolved. Regardless of 7/17, we have a second touch yesterday and third touch today. Unfortunately today decided to drop and close below the line. We need to close above ~$0.1055 just to stay within the descending channel and ride that support down.
I had said if we are within a channel, we should see a rebound towards at least the midrange of the channel, about $0.121. Or if we do a "reversion to the mean" we could see $0.135, just above the descending resistance (then) at ~$0.133 and the 200day SMA of $0.1321. I said I didn't expect we'd go that far without a catalyst though.
Today resolved all those "ifs" with a resounding bearish move on rising (even further) volume with a lower high, low and close. The close was below the descending support and the low represents the first test of my prior statement that $0.10 didn't seem likely to offer strong support.
I'll try and counter that POV with a positive "spin" next.
I said yesterday " ... volume qualifies as a "spike", being both ~5 times yesterday's and ~7 times the 10day volume average ... often signals the end of a trend, ... down beginning 6/30/14 ... combined with the newlyanointed "iffy" descending support argues for a rebound here. Our nearterm targets should be one of the two described above".
A second day of even "spikier" volume might make the end of this trend more likely. Why? Because the shortterm potential sellers may have been flushed by an aggregate ~3.75MM (or 1/2 that if you believe every trade is doublecounted, otherwise somewhere between) in just two days. Maybe because many will find $0.10x an attractive buy price and overwhelm any remaining sellers. All the oscillators I watch entered oversold today. Lots of folks believe this means a move up will come shortly.
OK. That's the best I can do for a bullish spin on today's behavior.
Fortunately, from a facesaving perspective, yesterday I also said "If we break below the descending channel ..." and went on to discuss how I believed the $0.10x area wouldn't be that strong a support (yet to be seen) and that low $0.09x seemed to be a potential stronger support area. I won't repeat it all  it's in yesterday's post.
Looking at today's stuff ...
Today MM BKMM was again on the bid, but today for 100K (instead of yesterday's 10K) at $0.108 (vs. $0.1151) at 13:48. They struck pay dirt at 100K @ $0.108 was sold from 13:54 to 14:38.
Today the only outliers, based on price, were buys of1000 shares at $0.1268 and 700 shares at $0.1270. The next price down, $0.1250, had several trades and good volume.
In terms of size, we had a lot of outliers compared to our norms. E.g., the four largest trades totaled 902.5K (175K, 187.5K  the only buy, 250K and 290K) and the next 10 largest (>= 40K) accounted for ~564K. 6/23  7/24 average largest trade size is 46,621, including eight days with substantially larger than normal maximum trade sizes. Excluding those eight days (larger than 55K) yields ~30.5K.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 8.18%, 4.44% (5.94% if $0.1250 used as high), 05.51%, 28.09% and 0.60% respectively. Price spread today was 25.74% (23.76% if $0.1250 used as high) vs. 20.82%, 6.22%, 2.31%, 2.69%, 6.08%, 5.11%, 17.35% (thanks to the two $0.1193 trades), 12.53% and 10.13% on prior days.
In the traditional TA area, all the oscillators I watch took a big dive, expected after to highvolume down days, into oversold. Those without oversold markers, like ADX, momentum, ... just took nasty dives to very low levels.
If we drop the two price outliers, we traded completely below the stillfalling Bollinger lower limit, now showing $0.1155 vs. $0.1226, $0.1278, $0.1287 and $0.1298 on prior days. The upper limit going higher, as would be expected with increased price volatility, reading $0.1574 vs. $0.1549, $0.1532, $0.1547 and $0.1554 on prior days.
The 5, 10, 25 and 50day averages for the VWAPs again all continued down. Today the averages are $0.1244, $0.1303, $0.1394 and $0.1499, down from yesterday's $0.1285, $0.1333, $0.1411 and $0.1510. The 100day average, which joined in on 7/21, had managed a small bump up yesterday. Today it flattened. Starting with Friday, 7/18, we have $0.1530, $0.1534, $0.1537, $0.1541, $0.1544, $0.1546 and $0.1546 today.
NOTE! The larger trades comments in the "outliers" discussion above.
The larger trades (>= 15K) occurred on 28 of the 93 trades, 30.11%. These 1,126,573 shares were 68.65% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1121. 8 of the larger trades, 28.57%, were buys of 495,066 shares, 27.25% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1157. 20 of the larger trades, 71.43%, were sells of 1,321,549 shares, 72.75% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1108.
The other 65 trades, 69.89% of the day's trades, traded 285,318 shares, 13.57% of the days volume. The VWAP was $0.1064. 38 trades, 58.46%, were buys and accounted for 135,467 shares, 47.48% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1115. 26 trades, 40.00%, were sells and accounted for 139,851 shares, 49.02% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1014.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes. Note the period ending 10:54 includes a 187.5K buy @ $0.12. Period ending 11:17 includes a sell of 175K @ $0.125. 11:18 is only the 250K @ $0.115 sell. Ending 15:56 includes the 290K @ $0.101 sell.
09:3010:02: 037000 shrs, 01.76% of vol, VWAP $0.1173, 023.0% buys
10:2110:54: 322427 shrs, 15.34% of vol, VWAP $0.1201, 100.0% buys
11:1411:17: 175700 shrs, 08.36% of vol, VWAP $0.1250, 000.4% buys
11:1811:18: 250000 shrs, 11.89% of vol, VWAP $0.1150, 000.0% buys
11:2111:35: 114166 shrs, 05.43% of vol, VWAP $0.1162, 000.9% buys
11:4211:45: 101934 shrs, 04.85% of vol, VWAP $0.1100, 066.9% buys
11:5912:49: 024282 shrs, 01.16% of vol, VWAP $0.1126, 087.6% buys
12:5513:36: 266239 shrs, 12.67% of vol, VWAP $0.1104, 024.5% buys
13:3714:41: 332500 shrs, 15.82% of vol, VWAP $0.1045, 032.3% buys
15:0015:44: 119185 shrs, 05.67% of vol, VWAP $0.1053, 005.9% buys
15:5015:56: 358500 shrs, 17.06% of vol, VWAP $0.1014, 007.9% buys
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary price range. Note the first entry the 290K @ $0.101 sell. The $0.108 ending range includes a 94K @ $0.1080 sell. Range ending at $0.1176 includes a 250K @ $0.1150 sell. The range ending at $0.12 includes a 187.5K @ $0.12 sell and the range ending at $0.1270 includes a 175K @ $0.1250 sell.
$0.1010$0.1020: 335000 shrs, 15.94% of vol, VWAP $0.1011, 000.0% buys
$0.1039$0.1055: 198185 shrs, 09.43% of vol, VWAP $0.0995, 033.3% buys
$0.1070$0.1080: 200000 shrs, 09.52% of vol, VWAP $0.1080, 000.0% buys
$0.1098$0.1110: 448083 shrs, 21.32% of vol, VWAP $0.1102, 047.0% buys
$0.1129$0.1149: 021372 shrs, 01.02% of vol, VWAP $0.1129, 100.0% buys
$0.1150$0.1176: 391666 shrs, 18.63% of vol, VWAP $0.1155, 000.0% buys
$0.1190$0.1200: 326677 shrs, 15.54% of vol, VWAP $0.1200, 100.0% buys
$0.1250$0.1270: 180950 shrs, 08.61% of vol, VWAP $0.1250, 003.3% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
07/11 $0.1412 01.00% 21.4%
07/14 $0.1406 00.37% 91.4%
07/15 $0.1399 00.51% 51.0%
07/16 $0.1398 00.09% 28.9%
07/17 $0.1353 10.50% 24.9%
07/18 $0.1344 00.60% 64.9%
07/21 $0.1318 01.94% 34.4%
07/22 $0.1315 00.26% 50.6%
07/23 $0.1317 +00.16% 62.0%
07/24 $0.1297 01.48% 49.1%
07/25 $0.1178 09.19% 23.8%
07/28 $0.1113 05.51% 30.0%
Regarding my newer inflection point calculations, volume was again big today. I expected a big falloff in volume and still wanted to see a trend of more consistent, and significant for us, volume. I'm not sure how to evaluate today's volume, but it seems the trend may be getting established. We have the second consecutive day of predominately "big" moves lower. I'm guessing that volume will move to more normal range and the trend lower in these calculations will flatten a bit.
_5day_ 10day_ _25day_ _50day_ _100day_ _200day_
022.66 0152.87 0307.35 0625.26 01893.73 06289.09
021.38 0085.63 0343.98 0679.05 01908.65 06503.63
034.35 0086.59 0355.65 0678.28 01893.01 06393.67
039.07 0107.82 0364.54 0727.31 02092.50 07044.45
015.30 0086.32 0344.92 0641.01 02021.59 06782.83
054.16 0081.33 0378.70 0704.36 02177.30 07014.61
052.40 0075.51 0357.46 0644.63 02037.68 06679.46
018.40 0053.47 0308.37 0554.64 01849.94 06254.12
011.84 0048.89 0313.49 0542.03 01873.47 06304.63
108.47 0135.29 0468.19 0737.60 02900.85 08684.19
212.09 0286.96 0610.67 0950.02 03358.38 09626.50
"Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection point changes here are in the latest daily post above.
07/25/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 108, MinTrSz: 12, MaxTrSz: 400000, Vol: 1640998, AvTrSz: 15194
Min. Pr: 0.1100, Max Pr: 0.1329, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1178
# Buys, Shares: 48 390361, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1194
# Sells, Shares: 59 850637, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1184
# Unkn, Shares: 1 400000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.1150
Buy:Sell 1:2.18 (23.79% "buys"), DlyShts 472689 (28.80%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 55.57%
Well, today gave me a third touchpoint on a potential descending support on a shortterm descending trading channel. It's origin is the low of 6/30 ($0.1401) and has a touch at the lows of 7/17 ($0.1193) and today ($0.11). Recall that the 7/17 low was established with two "outlier" trades of $0.1193 though. Without them our low would have been $0.1335 IIRC. So I don't know whether to consider that we have an origin and two touches or not, the minimum needed to consider such a line potentially valid.
Anyway, it fell about 16/100ths of a penny a day, or ~1.19%/day. If we are indeed within a channel, we should see a rebound towards at least the midrange of the channel, about $0.121. If we do a "reversion to the mean" of the latest down leg we could see $0.135, just above the descending resistance today at ~$0.133 and the 200day SMA of $0.1321. I don't expect we'd go that far without a catalyst though.
Today's volume qualifies as a "spike", being both ~5 times yesterday's and ~7 times the 10day volume average. Such a spike often signals the end of a trend, in this case down beginning 6/30/14. That combined with the newlyanointed "iffy" descending support argues for a rebound here. Our nearterm targets should be one of the two described above.
If our trading range hangs in around the $0.125 area, the 200day SMA will cease rising and go flat in about four days. The 50day, which had been trying to go flat, began a slow deterioration on 7/21 and continues that trend. It would accelerate a bit in a few days if trading range stayed around $0.125.
If we break below the descending channel ...
We've got an old potential support around $0.10 from the 10/8/1310/10/13 period. It was just a low in an extended downtrend that saw a brief (about 3.5 weeks) rebound, with good supporting volume through ~10/16/13, followed by a continuation of the down trend. For that latter reason, the good volume notwithstanding, I can't say it would be strong support. A stronger one might be in the low $0.09x area.
The low $0.9x area had two instances of demonstrated support that extended across multiple days. The first occurrence, 1/23/141/31/14, resulted in a brief rise into the low $0.12xx range before price began collapsing again. It was on good volume, for the period. The second occurrence, 2/20/142/25/14, had good volume, was followed by a rise to lows of ~$0.095 and highs up to ~$0.12 2/26/143/4/14, and then "popped" to as high as $0.23 on 3/10/14. The "pop" was on very good volume for the time and resulted in a sideways trading range until 4/3. Then another brief move up to a $0.18$0.20 range for six days was followed by the beginning of our current long slow grind down.
Moving on to a recounting of today's stuff ...
There was one aftermarket trade of 400K shares that FINRAreported daily short sales don't include. Adding that to the FINRA trade volume raises it from 1,240,998 to 1,640,998 and would lower the short percentage from 38.09% to 28.80%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves from 472,677 to 872,677 and the short percentage would be 53.18%.
Yesterday and today had a couple MMs not normally seen. Yesterday it was GUGS, premarket and on, with a 100K offer at $0.13 and today it was BKMM on the bid for 10K at $0.1151 at 14:39.
We had a few outliers today. One was a single sell of 5K shares at $0.1100. The next higher price seen was $0.1150 for ~704K, including 400K and 250K sells, followed by ~118K at $0.1151. At the other end of the spectrum, we had a 500 share buy for $0.1329 at 11:37. The next lower price was a single buy of 4,002 shares for $0.1319 at 12:08. The next higher price had some volume of trades, both buys and sells, for $0.1300.
Using $0.1150 and $0.1300 for the day's low and high, respectively, would be reasonable for examining the days results without the low and high price outliers.
Two other outliers were such only because of size. Both were sells for $0.1150. One was 250K at 14:16 and the other was 400K at 16:00:47 (an afterhours trade not included in FINRA Reg SHO daily short sales totals). Since another five trades for ~59K traded at this price I see no reason to examine the effects of removing the two larger trades.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 13.39%, 1.48%, 09.19%, 358.62% and 170.73% respectively. Price spread today was 20.82% vs. 6.22%, 2.31%, 2.69%, 6.08%, 5.11%, 17.35% (thanks to the two $0.1193 trades), 12.53%, 10.13% and 3.37% on prior days.
Using $0.1150 and $0.1300 for the day's low and high, ignoring the outlier low and highs mentioned above, makes movement of the low and high 9.45% and 3.63% instead of 13.39% and 1.48%. Price spread would be 13.04% instead of 20.82%.
In the traditional TA area, yesterday I noted we made our first approach to the anticipated support at $0.125, getting down to $0.127. I then said "... I thought this might be stronger support than the $0.135, which helped ... before being broken, but then I began to have doubts about $0.125. I still have those doubts".
I also said "Today's higher volume suggests that a bit more weight should be given to the oscillators I normally watch. But volume has been volatile ... Anyway, all oscillators except Williams %R and full stochastic had very small moves down".
I think I blew this one by not giving enough weight to what the oscillators were suggesting. When combined with the longterm descending highs, lows, VWAP (not traditional TA), resistance, moving averages, and Bollingers, and adding in the shortterm versions of all those things, it would have been reasonable to just flatout make a call for going lower.
But we are entering the time of the month when price has, in the "recent" past, flattened or even risen some. This has been occurring in the last and first weeks of each month for quite some time, including the last week of June and first week of July. I had been wondering if it would hold now that I was fairly sure the PIPErs were out a couple of months now. But I had no prior periods against which this could be compared because rumors of KIA, the RSrelated stuff entered the picture, NS999 in and out of the paint shop with batteries installed, ...
I also missed a "Spinning Top" candlestick, indicating indecision, that opened below, traded mostly below, and closed below the 200day SMA. The two prior days had traded with highs above and lows below it and included one close below it.
This could have been enough to sway me if I had noticed it. I don't know.
The Bollinger lower limit continues to drop, showing $0.1226 vs. $0.1278, $0.1287, $0.1298 and $0.1314 on prior days. The upper limit broke the trend of going lower today by making an up tick, reading $0.1549 vs. $0.1532, $0.1547, $0.1554 and $0.1559 on prior days.
The 5, 10, 25 and 50day averages for the VWAPs again all continued down. Today the averages are $0.1285, $0.1333, $0.1411 and $0.1510. The 100day average, which joined in on 7/21, again managed a small bump up today. Don't ask me how, but I had picked up some $0.28/$0.29 prices in the first four entries. I've corrected those today. Starting with Friday, 7/18, we have $0.1530, $0.1534, $0.1537, $0.1541, $0.1544 and $0.1546 today.
NOTE! The larger trades values were affected by a 250K sell for $0.1150 at 14:16 and a single 400K AH trade for $0.1150. The latter trade is classified as unknown although I believe it was likely a sell along with all the other $0.1150 trades, but for one 5K buy.
I suspect it was just an MM completing a sell order after spending the day shorting in preparation for completing the order and the AH trade was the completion of it. This would be a certain situation wherein JP's "double count" would apply and our true volume was at least 400K, and maybe 650K, lower than what we see. It's likely the 250K trade was part of that too. Needless to say, things would look different sans that AH trade (and the 250K trade?) and if I'm right about why we saw it (them?) things might have looked much better for the whole day.
The larger trades (>= 15K) occurred on 16 of the 108 trades, 14.81%. These 1,126,573 shares were 68.65% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1170. 5 of the larger trades, 31.25%, were buys of 182,000 shares, 16.16% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1193. 10 of the larger trades, 62.50%, were sells of 544,573 shares, 48.34% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1270. 1 of the larger trades, 6.25%, was an unknown representing 400,000 shares, 35.51% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1150.
The other 92 trades, 85.19% of the day's trades, traded 514,425 shares, 31.35% of the days volume. The VWAP was $0.1197. 43 trades, 46.74%, were buys and accounted for 208,361 shares, 40.50% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1194. 49 trades, 53.26%, were sells and accounted for 306,064 shares, 59.50% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1199.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes. Note the 14:1114:36 entry includes the 250K sell at 14:16 for $0.1150 and the last entry is only the 400K AH trade for that same price.
09:4512:11: 051902 shrs, 03.16% of vol, VWAP $0.1289, 008.7% buys
12:1413:18: 061300 shrs, 03.74% of vol, VWAP $0.1300, 067.4% buys
13:2013:25: 066854 shrs, 04.07% of vol, VWAP $0.1252, 005.8% buys
13:4714:02: 191812 shrs, 11.69% of vol, VWAP $0.1207, 043.6% buys
14:1114:36: 394357 shrs, 24.03% of vol, VWAP $0.1160, 009.0% buys
14:4315:05: 281400 shrs, 17.15% of vol, VWAP $0.1171, 038.0% buys
15:1715:49: 066923 shrs, 04.08% of vol, VWAP $0.1184, 047.0% buys
15:5115:59: 126450 shrs, 07.71% of vol, VWAP $0.1151, 065.6% buys
16:0016:00: 400000 shrs, 24.38% of vol, VWAP $0.1150, 000.0% buys
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary price range. Note the second entry includes the 250K and 400K sells for $0.1150 at 14:16 and AH respectively.
$0.1100$0.1100: 005000 shrs, 00.30% of vol, VWAP $0.1100, 000.0% buys
$0.1150$0.1150: 704137 shrs, 42.91% of vol, VWAP $0.1150, 000.7% buys
$0.1151$0.1166: 245500 shrs, 14.96% of vol, VWAP $0.1156, 031.8% buys
$0.1170$0.1185: 167400 shrs, 10.20% of vol, VWAP $0.1174, 063.9% buys
$0.1190$0.1200: 288905 shrs, 17.61% of vol, VWAP $0.1199, 052.0% buys
$0.1220$0.1221: 039500 shrs, 02.41% of vol, VWAP $0.1220, 000.0% buys
$0.1240$0.1250: 052504 shrs, 03.20% of vol, VWAP $0.1242, 008.3% buys
$0.1270$0.1281: 044250 shrs, 02.70% of vol, VWAP $0.1276, 000.0% buys
$0.1290$0.1300: 089300 shrs, 05.44% of vol, VWAP $0.1297, 046.2% buys
$0.1319$0.1329: 004502 shrs, 00.27% of vol, VWAP $0.1320, 100.0% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
07/10 $0.1426 02.10% 16.8%
07/11 $0.1412 01.00% 21.4%
07/14 $0.1406 00.37% 91.4%
07/15 $0.1399 00.51% 51.0%
07/16 $0.1398 00.09% 28.9%
07/17 $0.1353 10.50% 24.9%
07/18 $0.1344 00.60% 64.9%
07/21 $0.1318 01.94% 34.4%
07/22 $0.1315 00.26% 50.6%
07/23 $0.1317 +00.16% 62.0%
07/24 $0.1297 01.48% 49.1%
07/25 $0.1178 09.19% 23.8%
Regarding my newer inflection point calculations, volume was big today. I expect a big falloff in volume now and still want to see a trend of more consistent, and significant for us, volume. So even though the numbers below have big negative moves, sans the reasonable volume in a trend I still abstain from trying to read these tea leaves.
_5day_ 10day_ _25day_ _50day_ _100day_ _200day_
066.14 0170.92 0317.77 0683.09 01914.60 06285.66
022.66 0152.87 0307.35 0625.26 01893.73 06289.09
021.38 0085.63 0343.98 0679.05 01908.65 06503.63
034.35 0086.59 0355.65 0678.28 01893.01 06393.67
039.07 0107.82 0364.54 0727.31 02092.50 07044.45
015.30 0086.32 0344.92 0641.01 02021.59 06782.83
054.16 0081.33 0378.70 0704.36 02177.30 07014.61
052.40 0075.51 0357.46 0644.63 02037.68 06679.46
018.40 0053.47 0308.37 0554.64 01849.94 06254.12
011.84 0048.89 0313.49 0542.03 01873.47 06304.63
108.47 0135.29 0468.19 0737.60 02900.85 08684.19
"Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection point changes here are in the latest daily post above.
07/24/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 35, MinTrSz: 850, MaxTrSz: 75000, Vol: 357810, AvTrSz: 10223
Min. Pr: 0.1270, Max Pr: 0.1349, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1297
# Buys, Shares: 8 175600, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1301
# Sells, Shares: 27 182210, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1294
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:1.04 (49.08% "buys"), DlyShts 174600 (48.80%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 95.82%
We had two outliers today. One was a single buy of 2K shares at $0.1349. The next lower price seen was $0.1331 for 9K and it was close to similar trades with volume of $0.1330, $0.1320, ... The other was an outlier only because of it's size. It was a single buy of 60K at $0.13, a tenth below midrange for the day.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 2.31%, 1.43%, 01.48%, 258.28% and 298.91% respectively. Price spread today was 6.22% vs. 2.31%, 2.69%, 6.08%, 5.11%, 17.35% (thanks to the two $0.1193 trades), 12.53%, 10.13%, 3.37% and 3.88% on prior days.
Discounting the $0.1349 outlier and using the $0.1331 as the day's high would yield movements of 0.08% for the high and 4.80% for the spread.
In the traditional TA area, we made our first approach to the anticipated support at $0.125, getting down to $0.127. A short while back I thought this might be stronger support than the $0.135, which helped out for seven days before being broken, but then I began to have doubts about $0.125. I still have those doubts.
Today's higher volume suggests that a bit more weight should be given to the oscillators I normally watch. But volume has been volatile and we could easily drop to very low volume again at any time. Anyway, all oscillators except Williams %R and full stochastic had very small moves down.
The Bollinger lower limit continues to drop, showing $0.1278 vs. $0.1287, $0.1298 and $0.1314 on prior days. The upper limit continued lower today, reading $0.1532 vs. $0.1547, $0.1554 and $0.1559 on prior days.
For the second consecutive day we traded mostly below the rising 200day SMA, $0.1321 today, but didn't manage to close above it like we did yesterday. We closed at $0.13, which was the last and largest trade of the day, a buy of 60K at 13:46.
The 5, 10, 25 and 50day averages for the VWAPs again all continued down. Today the averages are $0.1318, $0.1356, $0.1425 and $0.1521. The 100day average, which joined in on 7/21, managed a small bump up today. Starting with Friday, 7/18, we have $0.2900, $0.2883, $0.2862, $0.2827 and $0.1544 today.
No "fishing" was noted today.
Short percentage misbehaved a bit today  buy percentage down from yesterday's 62% to 49.1% and daily short percentage moved from yesterday's 43.83% up to 48.8% today. Small variations in magnitude from the normal are not unusual in the choppy leg after coming off extremes as we vacillate towards more normal ranges. This is easily seen on the chart. I suspect the variation was the buy of 60K  this would represent almost 1/3rd of the day's short volume and would skew the percentage substantially higher.
The larger trades (>= 15K) occurred on 4 of the 35 trades, 11.43%. These 170,000 shares were 47.51% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1297. 3 of the larger trades, 75.00%, were buys of 155,000 shares, 91.18% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1300. 1 of the larger trades, 25.00%, was a sell of 15,000 shares, 8.82% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1270.
The other 31 trades, 88.57% of the day's trades, traded 187,810 shares, 52.49% of the days volume. The VWAP was $0.1298. 5 trades, 16.13%, were buys and accounted for 20,600 shares, 10.97% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1310. 26 trades, 83.87%, were sells and accounted for 167,210 shares, 89.03% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1296.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes. Note the last entry is only the 60K $0.13 buy.
09:3009:52: 132600 shrs, 37.06% of vol, VWAP $0.1304, 085.7% buys
10:2510:26: 012000 shrs, 03.35% of vol, VWAP $0.1321, 016.7% buys
12:0313:05: 026210 shrs, 07.33% of vol, VWAP $0.1301, 000.0% buys
13:1113:42: 127000 shrs, 35.49% of vol, VWAP $0.1286, 000.0% buys
13:4613:46: 060000 shrs, 16.77% of vol, VWAP $0.1300, 100.0% buys
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary price range. Note the second entry includes the 60K $0.13 buy.
$0.1270$0.1287: 089300 shrs, 24.96% of vol, VWAP $0.1281, 000.0% buys
$0.1290$0.1301: 235210 shrs, 65.74% of vol, VWAP $0.1300, 072.2% buys
$0.1320$0.1331: 031300 shrs, 08.75% of vol, VWAP $0.1324, 012.1% buys
$0.1349$0.1349: 002000 shrs, 00.56% of vol, VWAP $0.1349, 100.0% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
07/09 $0.1456 +01.80% 36.2%
07/10 $0.1426 02.10% 16.8%
07/11 $0.1412 01.00% 21.4%
07/14 $0.1406 00.37% 91.4%
07/15 $0.1399 00.51% 51.0%
07/16 $0.1398 00.09% 28.9%
07/17 $0.1353 10.50% 24.9%
07/18 $0.1344 00.60% 64.9%
07/21 $0.1318 01.94% 34.4%
07/22 $0.1315 00.26% 50.6%
07/23 $0.1317 +00.16% 62.0%
07/24 $0.1297 01.48% 49.1%
Regarding my newer inflection point calculations, volume was up today. But without a trend of decent volume and changes trending, we have to just take it as noise still.
_5day_ 10day_ _25day_ _50day_ _100day_ _200day_
061.59 0161.27 0303.10 0692.72 01837.22 06167.52
066.14 0170.92 0317.77 0683.09 01914.60 06285.66
022.66 0152.87 0307.35 0625.26 01893.73 06289.09
021.38 0085.63 0343.98 0679.05 01908.65 06503.63
034.35 0086.59 0355.65 0678.28 01893.01 06393.67
039.07 0107.82 0364.54 0727.31 02092.50 07044.45
015.30 0086.32 0344.92 0641.01 02021.59 06782.83
054.16 0081.33 0378.70 0704.36 02177.30 07014.61
052.40 0075.51 0357.46 0644.63 02037.68 06679.46
018.40 0053.47 0308.37 0554.64 01849.94 06254.12
011.84 0048.89 0313.49 0542.03 01873.47 06304.63
"Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection point changes here are in the latest daily post above.
07/23/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 19, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 10000, Vol: 99869, AvTrSz: 5256
Min. Pr: 0.1300, Max Pr: 0.1330, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1317
# Buys, Shares: 13 61869, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1327
# Sells, Shares: 6 38000, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1301
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1.63:1 (61.95% "buys"), DlyShts 43769 (43.83%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 115.18%
No outlier today.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 0.00%, 0.37%, 00.16%, 41.23% and 87.66% respectively. Price spread today was 2.31% vs. 2.69%, 6.08%, 5.11%, 17.35% (thanks to the two $0.1193 trades), 12.53%, 10.13%, 3.37%, 3.88% and 7.84% on prior days.
In the traditional TA area, low volume suggests that little weight should be given to the oscillators I normally watch. All had very small moves, three positive and three negative. There's nothing I can read into them with this kind of volume.
The Bollinger lower limit continues to drop, showing $0.1287 vs $0.1298 and $0.1314 on prior days. The upper limit continued lower today, reading $0.1547 vs. $0.1554 and $0.1559 on prior days.
We traded mostly below the rising 200day SMA today, $0.1320 and did manage to close just above it at $0.1324.
The 5, 10, 25 and 50day averages for the VWAPs again all continued down. Today the averages are $0.1344, $0.1319, $0.2453, $0.2524 and $0.2783. The 100day average joined in on 7/21. Starting with Friday, 7/18, we have $0.2900, $0.2883, $0.2862 and $0.2827.
No "fishing" was noted today.
Short percentage continued behaving as expected  buy percentage up (and "high" at 62%) and daily short percentage moved from yesterday's 13.73% to 43.83% today.
There were no larger trades today.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes.
09:3011:11: 036100 shrs, 36.15% of vol, VWAP $0.1330, 100.0% buys
12:0313:03: 012000 shrs, 12.02% of vol, VWAP $0.1324, 100.0% buys
14:0214:12: 038000 shrs, 38.05% of vol, VWAP $0.1301, 000.0% buys
14:1815:57: 013769 shrs, 13.79% of vol, VWAP $0.1322, 100.0% buys
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary price range.
$0.1300$0.1302: 038000 shrs, 38.05% of vol, VWAP $0.1301, 000.0% buys
$0.1320$0.1324: 026869 shrs, 26.90% of vol, VWAP $0.1323, 100.0% buys
$0.1330$0.1330: 035000 shrs, 35.05% of vol, VWAP $0.1330, 100.0% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
07/08 $0.1431 +03.78% 47.1%
07/09 $0.1456 +01.80% 36.2%
07/10 $0.1426 02.10% 16.8%
07/11 $0.1412 01.00% 21.4%
07/14 $0.1406 00.37% 91.4%
07/15 $0.1399 00.51% 51.0%
07/16 $0.1398 00.09% 28.9%
07/17 $0.1353 10.50% 24.9%
07/18 $0.1344 00.60% 64.9%
07/21 $0.1318 01.94% 34.4%
07/22 $0.1315 00.26% 50.6%
07/23 $0.1317 +00.16% 62.0%
Regarding my newer inflection point calculations, volume was in the crapper for the second consecutive day. Today "noise" continues  just continue to ignore the readings.
_5day_ 10day_ _25day_ _50day_ _100day_ _200day_
044.61 0157.16 0278.93 0596.82 01584.16 05445.70
061.59 0161.27 0303.10 0692.72 01837.22 06167.52
066.14 0170.92 0317.77 0683.09 01914.60 06285.66
022.66 0152.87 0307.35 0625.26 01893.73 06289.09
021.38 0085.63 0343.98 0679.05 01908.65 06503.63
034.35 0086.59 0355.65 0678.28 01893.01 06393.67
039.07 0107.82 0364.54 0727.31 02092.50 07044.45
015.30 0086.32 0344.92 0641.01 02021.59 06782.83
054.16 0081.33 0378.70 0704.36 02177.30 07014.61
052.40 0075.51 0357.46 0644.63 02037.68 06679.46
018.40 0053.47 0308.37 0554.64 01849.94 06254.12
"Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection point changes here are in the latest daily post above.
07/22/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 17, MinTrSz: 323, MaxTrSz: 44600, Vol: 169923, AvTrSz: 9995
Min. Pr: 0.1300, Max Pr: 0.1335, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1315
# Buys, Shares: 8 85923, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1321
# Sells, Shares: 9 84000, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1309
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1.02:1 (50.57% "buys"), DlyShts 23323 (13.73%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 27.77%
No outlier today.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 0.00%, 3.19%, 00.26%, 68.92% and 84.98% respectively. Price spread today was 2.69% vs. 6.08%, 5.11%, 17.35% (thanks to the two $0.1193 trades), 12.53%, 10.13%, 3.37%, 3.88%, 7.84% and 6.21% on prior days.
Of the traditional TA oscillators I watch, the low volume bites us again  all flipped negative yesterday on reasonable and rising volume so it seemed we should give that movement some weight. Today's price action does suggest that was a correct assessment. Today we get minuscule volume and mixed readings as a couple improve and a couple continue to weaken and a couple go flat. Just ignore them for now.
The Bollinger lower limit continues to drop, showing $0.1298 now and the upper limit went from flat yesterday to lower today, reading $0.1554 today (was $0.1559).
The 5, 10, 25 and 50day averages for the VWAPs again all continued down. Today the averages are $0.1346, $0.1383, $0.1443 and $0.1525 vs. $0.1363, $0.1394, $0.1452 and $0.1527 vs. $0.1380, $0.1400, $0.1461 and $0.1529 vs. $0.1394, $0.1409, $0.1470 and $0.1530 on prior days.
No "fishing" was noted today.
Short percentage continued behaving as expected.
The larger trades (>= 15K) occurred on 3 of the 17 trades, 17.65%. These 92,100 shares were 54.20% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1315. 1 of the larger trades, 33.33%, was a buy of 44,600 shares, 48.43% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1320. 2 of the larger trades, 66.67%, were sells of 47,500 shares, 51.57% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1310.
The other 14 trades, 82.35% of the day's trades, traded 77,823 shares, 45.80% of the days volume. The VWAP was $0.1315. 7 trades, 50.00%, were buys and accounted for 41,323 shares, 53.10% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1321. 7 trades, 50.00%, were sells and accounted for 36,500 shares, 46.90% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1308.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes.
09:3009:30: 003000 shrs, 01.77% of vol, VWAP $0.1300, 000.0% buys
10:2611:15: 012323 shrs, 07.25% of vol, VWAP $0.1331, 091.9% buys
12:5414:00: 022500 shrs, 13.24% of vol, VWAP $0.1308, 000.0% buys
15:0315:05: 054600 shrs, 32.13% of vol, VWAP $0.1322, 100.0% buys
15:1115:52: 077500 shrs, 45.61% of vol, VWAP $0.1310, 025.8% buys
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary price range.
$0.1300$0.1310: 079000 shrs, 46.49% of vol, VWAP $0.1309, 025.3% buys
$0.1311$0.1319: 026323 shrs, 15.49% of vol, VWAP $0.1311, 005.0% buys
$0.1320$0.1320: 044600 shrs, 26.25% of vol, VWAP $0.1320, 100.0% buys
$0.1330$0.1335: 020000 shrs, 11.77% of vol, VWAP $0.1333, 100.0% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
07/07 $0.1379 03.59% 28.6%
07/08 $0.1431 +03.78% 47.1%
07/09 $0.1456 +01.80% 36.2%
07/10 $0.1426 02.10% 16.8%
07/11 $0.1412 01.00% 21.4%
07/14 $0.1406 00.37% 91.4%
07/15 $0.1399 00.51% 51.0%
07/16 $0.1398 00.09% 28.9%
07/17 $0.1353 10.50% 24.9%
07/18 $0.1344 00.60% 64.9%
07/21 $0.1318 01.94% 34.4%
07/22 $0.1315 00.26% 50.6%
Regarding my newer inflection point calculations, volume tanked today. Yesterday I gave weight to the changes and today it seems that was correct. Five of the six periods were weaker, several notably so. Today, it's back to "noise"  just ignore the readings.
_5day_ 10day_ _25day_ _50day_ _100day_ _200day_
060.52 0199.11 0279.09 0692.62 01916.57 06132.57
044.61 0157.16 0278.93 0596.82 01584.16 05445.70
061.59 0161.27 0303.10 0692.72 01837.22 06167.52
066.14 0170.92 0317.77 0683.09 01914.60 06285.66
022.66 0152.87 0307.35 0625.26 01893.73 06289.09
021.38 0085.63 0343.98 0679.05 01908.65 06503.63
034.35 0086.59 0355.65 0678.28 01893.01 06393.67
039.07 0107.82 0364.54 0727.31 02092.50 07044.45
015.30 0086.32 0344.92 0641.01 02021.59 06782.83
054.16 0081.33 0378.70 0704.36 02177.30 07014.61
052.40 0075.51 0357.46 0644.63 02037.68 06679.46
"Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection point changes here are in the latest daily post above.
07/21/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 46, MinTrSz: 75, MaxTrSz: 65000, Vol: 546751, AvTrSz: 11886
Min. Pr: 0.1300, Max Pr: 0.1379, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1318
# Buys, Shares: 15 188074, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1330
# Sells, Shares: 31 358677, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1312
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:1.91 (34.40% "buys"), DlyShts 155300 (28.40%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 43.30%
We had one outlier at 12:02 in the form of a 4,999 share trade at $0.1379, the high of the day. The next lower price was $0.1350 in two trades totaling 8,862 share. Since it was near similarlypriced trades, $0.1348, $0.1340, ... I would think using $0.1350 in any "what if" scenarios would be reasonable.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 2.26%, 1.36%, 01.94%, 69.92% and 7.56% respectively. Price spread today was 6.08% vs. 5.11%, 17.35% (thanks to the two $0.1193 trades), 12.53%, 10.13%, 3.37%, 3.88%, 7.84%, 6.21% and 16.19% on prior days.
If we throw out the $0.1379 outlier, the high movement becomes 3.43% and the spread becomes 3.85%.
The $0.135 weak support caved today as both VWAP, $0.1318, and the close, $0.1301, were below it on rising and decisive volume. We also closed below the rising 200day SMA of $0.1318, right where the VWAP is today. Discounting the "outlier" would also move the high $0.1350.
Excluding the one outlier 4,999 trade at $0.1379, 100% of volume traded below $0.1350.
Of the traditional TA oscillators I watch, all flipped negative today. Since we had reasonable and rising volume we should give this movement some weight. Of course, there's a chance everything could reverse tomorrow, but I'm not looking for that.
Our next potential support is around $0.125 and I'm now wondering about its strength. There's not any signs of which I'm aware that might act as a catalyst to stop this down trend.
The Bollinger lower limit continues to drop, showing $0.1314 now and the upper limit went flat today. That's a temporary situation though unless price makes a move up, which seems unlikely ATM.
The 5, 10, 25 and 50day averages for the VWAPs again all continued down. Today the averages are $0.1363, $0.1394, $0.1452 and $0.1527 vs. $0.1380, $0.1400, $0.1461 and $0.1529 yesterday and $0.1394, $0.1409, $0.1470 and $0.1530 two day's ago.
No "fishing" was noted today.
We saw a couple notable offers, relative to our volume, in a 65K offer at $0.133 from BNCH and a 75K offer at $0.135 from NITE.
Short percentage continued behaving as expected. Buy percentage dropped from 64.9% to 34.4% and short percentage dropped from 52.21% to 28.4%. We're seeing the normal "choppy" reversal down from the silly 60.92% on 7/14 as the short percentage starts gravitating towards a more normal, and hopefully somewhat more stable, range. As I've noted in the past, this "leg down" is usually associated with falling price and this leg seems no different in that regard.
The larger trades (>= 15K) occurred on 10 of the 46 trades, 21.74%. These 304,500 shares were 55.69% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1316. 3 of the larger trades, 30.00%, were buys of 110,900 shares, 36.42% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1324. 7 of the larger trades, 70.00%, were sells of 193,600 shares, 63.58% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1311.
The other 36 trades, 78.26% of the day's trades, traded 242,251 shares, 44.31% of the days volume. The VWAP was $0.1321. 12 trades, 33.33%, were buys and accounted for 77,174 shares, 31.86% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1338. 24 trades, 66.67%, were sells and accounted for 165,077 shares, 68.14% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1314.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes.
09:3109:34: 010000 shrs, 01.83% of vol, VWAP $0.1302, 005.3% buys
09:3809:55: 096100 shrs, 17.58% of vol, VWAP $0.1316, 016.8% buys
10:0612:01: 158250 shrs, 28.94% of vol, VWAP $0.1322, 056.4% buys
12:0214:05: 015201 shrs, 02.78% of vol, VWAP $0.1358, 032.9% buys
14:1915:29: 112200 shrs, 20.52% of vol, VWAP $0.1319, 033.2% buys
15:4015:42: 070000 shrs, 12.80% of vol, VWAP $0.1301, 000.0% buys
15:4415:44: 040000 shrs, 07.32% of vol, VWAP $0.1337, 100.0% buys
15:5715:58: 045000 shrs, 08.23% of vol, VWAP $0.1307, 000.0% buys
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary price range. Note the last range includes only the single outlier.
$0.1300$0.1319: 260900 shrs, 47.72% of vol, VWAP $0.1306, 008.2% buys
$0.1320$0.1339: 251990 shrs, 46.09% of vol, VWAP $0.1327, 056.2% buys
$0.1340$0.1350: 028862 shrs, 05.28% of vol, VWAP $0.1346, 069.3% buys
$0.1379$0.1379: 004999 shrs, 00.91% of vol, VWAP $0.1379, 100.0% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
07/03 $0.1430 01.15% 33.9%
07/07 $0.1379 03.59% 28.6%
07/08 $0.1431 +03.78% 47.1%
07/09 $0.1456 +01.80% 36.2%
07/10 $0.1426 02.10% 16.8%
07/11 $0.1412 01.00% 21.4%
07/14 $0.1406 00.37% 91.4%
07/15 $0.1399 00.51% 51.0%
07/16 $0.1398 00.09% 28.9%
07/17 $0.1353 10.50% 24.9%
07/18 $0.1344 00.60% 64.9%
07/21 $0.1318 01.94% 34.4%
Regarding my newer inflection point calculations, volume improved today and is between the 50 and 100day averages of 307K and 797K respectively. So I'd give weight to the changes now. Five of the six periods are weaker, several notably so.
_5day_ 10day_ _25day_ _50day_ _100day_ _200day_
139.76 0245.21 0316.56 0901.07 02660.91 07674.85
060.52 0199.11 0279.09 0692.62 01916.57 06132.57
044.61 0157.16 0278.93 0596.82 01584.16 05445.70
061.59 0161.27 0303.10 0692.72 01837.22 06167.52
066.14 0170.92 0317.77 0683.09 01914.60 06285.66
022.66 0152.87 0307.35 0625.26 01893.73 06289.09
021.38 0085.63 0343.98 0679.05 01908.65 06503.63
034.35 0086.59 0355.65 0678.28 01893.01 06393.67
039.07 0107.82 0364.54 0727.31 02092.50 07044.45
015.30 0086.32 0344.92 0641.01 02021.59 06782.83
054.16 0081.33 0378.70 0704.36 02177.30 07014.61
"Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection point changes here are in the latest daily post above.
07/18/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 36, MinTrSz: 2, MaxTrSz: 77200, Vol: 321777, AvTrSz: 8938
Min. Pr: 0.1330, Max Pr: 0.1398, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1344
# Buys, Shares: 20 208909, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1350
# Sells, Shares: 16 112868, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1334
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1.85:1 (64.92% "buys"), DlyShts 168000 (52.21%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 148.85%
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 11.48%, 0.14%, 00.60%, 153.77% and 1,360.87% respectively. Price spread today was 5.11% vs. 17.35% (thanks to the two $0.1193 trades), 12.53%, 10.13%, 3.37%, 3.88%, 7.84%, 6.21%, 16.19% and 18.52% on prior days.
The $0.135 weak support, IMO, was tested for the third consecutive day. It's looking weak, even considering Wednesday's VWAP of $0.1398 with a range of $0.1333  $0.1500 (100K, ~22% of day;s volume). ~28% traded at or below $0.1359.
Yesterday, Thursday, was a lowvolume day so we wouldn't give its behavior a lot of weight. It ranged from $0.1193 (two trades at the open totaling 2.2K  a better low would be $0.1335) to $0.1400 (three totaling 15.2K) and ended with a VWAP of $0.1353. Checking the trading breakdowns we see 60.1% traded below $0.135.
Today, even with "decent" volume for us, 73.15% of volume traded below $0.1350. Another 20.64% traded right at $0.1350. This with 64.92% buys.
The result is we now have a threeday string of increasing percentages of trading below the $0.135x range on both rising and falling volumes and buy percentages.
See the notes in the trading breakdowns by time and by price for a couple of additional notable numbers.
On the traditional TA front, beyond just the oscillators I watch, discounting Thursday's $0.1193 outliers and using $0.1335 as the real low, six of the last eight days have had lower lows. Today we add two consecutive days of lower highs.
The 10 and 20day price averages continue falling. The trading lows are approaching the slowly rising 200day SMA of $0.1318.
The Bollinger limits both continue to drop, showing $0.1558 and $0.1337 now.
Of the traditional TA oscillators I watch, we are less mixed today. All but the ADX related, which continues to weaken, have marginal ticks up again. But all but full stochastic are still well below neutral and shouldn't be seen as "bullish", just "less weak". Some of this "less weak" may be due to the relatively low volume seen recently.
The 5, 10, 25 and 50day averages for the VWAPs have switched from three down and the 50day rising (1/100th penny again) to all down again. Today the averages are $0.1380, $0.1400, $0.1461 and $0.1529, versus yesterday's $0.1394, $0.1409, $0.1470 and $0.1530.
The ARCA oddity continues, appearing premarket today both sides. The sell side went away by 10:20 and the buy side left by 11:21.
We had one outlier, the last trade today, a buy of 5K shares for $0.1398 at 15:54:54. I'm not real sure how much of an outlier it was though because there were also three buys at $0.1378  one for 7 shares at 14:45 (appears to be "locking up" a 10K trade that completed later), one for 5K shares at 15:53:36, and one for 9,993 shares (paired with the 7 shares?) at 15:54:00.
Was the $0.1398 just a determined "buy regardless" trade or a cheap painting of the EOD tape to display bullishness? If you look at the trading breakdown by time you see the 15:00  15:54 timeframes had VWAPs of $0.1350, $0.1337 and $0.1383. So the $0.1378 and $0.1398 both would appear to be "outliers". Checking the breakdown by price, the $0.1378  $0.1398 price range is only 20K shares, 6.22% of days volume. Assuming a bell curve, ...
Two 100 share trades, one buy and one sell at $0.1350 and $0.1330 respectively, may have been "lures" today  both were in the last 35 minutes of the session after a 45 minute period of no trading, in the first case.
We did not see outrageously large, or even notably large, bids or offers today.
I noted yesterday short percentage continued behaving as expected. Today as buy percentage moved from 24.9% to 64.9%, daily short percentage went from 9.07% to 52.21%. Recall that Monday we had buy and short percentages of 91.4% and 60.92% respectively. Then we saw two days of falling daily short, as is common regardless of buy percentage when daily short hits nosebleed altitudes and volume is low, and now we've got a tick up. This is the normal followon "choppy" behavior as things start returning to normal and work off the excesses of one leg, down or up, and make a choppy leg in the opposite direction.
The larger trades (>= 15K) occurred on 4 of the 36 trades, 11.11%. These 149,000 shares were 46.31% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1343. 3 of the larger trades, 75.00%, were buys of 129,000 shares, 86.58% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1345. 1 of the larger trades, 25.00%, were sells of 20,000 shares, 13.42% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1330.
The other 32 trades, 88.89% of the day's trades, traded 172,777 shares, 53.69% of the days volume. The VWAP was $0.1346. 17 trades, 53.13%, were buys and accounted for 79,909 shares, 46.25% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1358. 15 trades, 46.88%, were sells and accounted for 92,868 shares, 53.75% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1335.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes. Note that the period ending at 12:21 included one of our four larger trades, a buy of 20K for $0.1330, and the period beginning 12:53 included the 77.2K buy at that minute for $0.139. The period beginning 14:41 included the buys of 21.5K for $0.1350 and 30.3K for $0.1330.
09:3709:37: 006450 shrs, 02.00% of vol, VWAP $0.1350, 100.0% buys
11:1012:21: 079191 shrs, 24.61% of vol, VWAP $0.1333, 014.1% buys
12:5314:20: 115400 shrs, 35.86% of vol, VWAP $0.1349, 087.0% buys
14:4114:45: 051807 shrs, 16.10% of vol, VWAP $0.1338, 100.0% buys
15:0615:37: 019127 shrs, 05.94% of vol, VWAP $0.1350, 099.9% buys
15:4615:46: 015100 shrs, 04.69% of vol, VWAP $0.1337, 000.0% buys
15:5315:54: 019993 shrs, 06.21% of vol, VWAP $0.1383, 100.0% buys
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary price range. Note all our larger trades today, plus a 14,150 share buy for $0.1349, traded at $0.1350 or lower. See above.
$0.1330$0.1331: 116127 shrs, 36.09% of vol, VWAP $0.1330, 026.1% buys
$0.1340$0.1349: 119250 shrs, 37.06% of vol, VWAP $0.1348, 081.5% buys
$0.1350$0.1350: 066400 shrs, 20.64% of vol, VWAP $0.1350, 092.5% buys
$0.1378$0.1398: 020000 shrs, 06.22% of vol, VWAP $0.1383, 100.0% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
07/02 $0.1447 +02.53% 72.6%
07/03 $0.1430 01.15% 33.9%
07/07 $0.1379 03.59% 28.6%
07/08 $0.1431 +03.78% 47.1%
07/09 $0.1456 +01.80% 36.2%
07/10 $0.1426 02.10% 16.8%
07/11 $0.1412 01.00% 21.4%
07/14 $0.1406 00.37% 91.4%
07/15 $0.1399 00.51% 51.0%
07/16 $0.1398 00.09% 28.9%
07/17 $0.1353 10.50% 24.9%
07/18 $0.1344 00.60% 64.9%
Regarding my newer inflection point calculations, volume improved today but is still somewhat low. So I'd give more weight to the changes, but not yet a lot. Yesterday the three longer periods went from flat to negative today, as was suggested by the shorter periods the prior day. The prior day was very low volume and it's not surprising to see today's readings with all periods improved. I have to think it's still just "noise".
_5day_ 10day_ _25day_ _50day_ _100day_ _200day_
108.62 0217.53 0411.56 0816.02 02392.42 06998.60
139.76 0245.21 0316.56 0901.07 02660.91 07674.85
060.52 0199.11 0279.09 0692.62 01916.57 06132.57
044.61 0157.16 0278.93 0596.82 01584.16 05445.70
061.59 0161.27 0303.10 0692.72 01837.22 06167.52
066.14 0170.92 0317.77 0683.09 01914.60 06285.66
022.66 0152.87 0307.35 0625.26 01893.73 06289.09
021.38 0085.63 0343.98 0679.05 01908.65 06503.63
034.35 0086.59 0355.65 0678.28 01893.01 06393.67
039.07 0107.82 0364.54 0727.31 02092.50 07044.45
015.30 0086.32 0344.92 0641.01 02021.59 06782.83
"Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection point changes here are are in the latest daily post above.
07/17/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 25, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 18200, Vol: 126800, AvTrSz: 5072
Min. Pr: 0.1193, Max Pr: 0.1400, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1353
# Buys, Shares: 11 31600, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1395
# Sells, Shares: 14 95200, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1339
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:3.01 (24.92% "buys"), DlyShts 11500 (09.07%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 12.08%
We had two outliers at the open today  sells of 200 and then 2K for $0.1193. The next lowestpriced trades, and they had multiple trades and some volume, were at $0.1335 and higher. Without these two trades the day's low could be reasonably considered to be $0.1335, although this was the single larger trade of the day at 18.2K. Next up were a couple at $0.1336.
We had four "lures" today  three 100 share buys at $0.1389 and one 100 share buy at $0.1399.
We did not see ATDF come with a 137.5K at $0.14 offer again. Don't know if they changed their mind or sold it in smaller chunks, at lower prices or what.
The $0.135 is now being tested as yesterday we went below it, even ignoring those two outliers, and came back to and above it. But it was very low volume, a low buy percentage and I have stated I don't expect it is a strong support level. A few days should tell the story.
The ARCA oddity continues, appearing premarket today both sides and disappearing at the open from both sides.
Short percentage continues behaving as expected as buy percentage drops, so does short percentage.
The 5, 10, 25 and 50day averages for the VWAPs again have three down. Today the falling 5, 10, 25day averages and the rising (1/100th penny again) 50day average are $0.1394, $0.1409, $0.1470 and $0.1530 compared to yesterday's $0.1408, $0.1418, $0.1477 and $0.1529, and the prior $0.1420, $0.1420, $0.1483 and $0.1528 respectively.
There was only one larger trade, a sell of 18.2K for $0.1335 at 13:42.
On the traditional TA front, beyond just the oscillators I watch, the third consecutive day of lower lows (unless we discount the two outliers totally) suggest the continuation of weakening.
In conjunction with all that, the price 10 and 20day averages continue falling.
Of the traditional TA oscillators I watch, we are still mixed today. The RSI,MFI and ADX related are weaker and the full stochastic, Williams %R and momentum have marginal ticks up.
The Bollinger limits both continue to drop, showing $0.1570 and $0.1339 now.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 10.50%, 6.67%, 03.25%, 71.97% and 80.33% respectively. Price spread today was 17.35% (thanks to the two $0.1193 trades) vs. 12.53%, 10.13%, 3.37%, 3.88%, 7.84%, 6.21%, 16.19%, 18.52% and 7.07% on prior days.
If we remove those two outliers and use $0.1335 as our low, the low movement would be +0.15% instead of the 10.5% we saw. The spread would be 4.87% instead of 12.53%.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes. Note that the first entry includes only the two outliers and the last two entries are single trades.
09:3009:30: 002200 shrs, 01.74% of vol, VWAP $0.1193, 000.0% buys
09:4310:56: 015200 shrs, 11.99% of vol, VWAP $0.1400, 100.0% buys
11:0011:37: 040100 shrs, 31.62% of vol, VWAP $0.1344, 000.2% buys
11:5013:38: 015300 shrs, 12.07% of vol, VWAP $0.1389, 100.0% buys
13:4113:56: 049000 shrs, 38.64% of vol, VWAP $0.1340, 000.0% buys
14:5714:57: 001000 shrs, 00.79% of vol, VWAP $0.1391, 100.0% buys
15:5215:52: 004000 shrs, 03.15% of vol, VWAP $0.1350, 000.0% buys
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary price range. Note that the first entry includes only the two outliers.
$0.1193$0.1193: 002200 shrs, 01.74% of vol, VWAP $0.1193, 000.0% buys
$0.1335$0.1341: 074000 shrs, 58.36% of vol, VWAP $0.1338, 000.0% buys
$0.1350$0.1375: 019000 shrs, 14.98% of vol, VWAP $0.1357, 000.0% buys
$0.1389$0.1399: 016400 shrs, 12.93% of vol, VWAP $0.1389, 100.0% buys
$0.1400$0.1400: 015200 shrs, 11.99% of vol, VWAP $0.1400, 100.0% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
07/01 $0.1411 04.54% 22.8%
07/02 $0.1447 +02.53% 72.6%
07/03 $0.1430 01.15% 33.9%
07/07 $0.1379 03.59% 28.6%
07/08 $0.1431 +03.78% 47.1%
07/09 $0.1456 +01.80% 36.2%
07/10 $0.1426 02.10% 16.8%
07/11 $0.1412 01.00% 21.4%
07/14 $0.1406 00.37% 91.4%
07/15 $0.1399 00.51% 51.0%
07/16 $0.1398 00.09% 28.9%
07/17 $0.1353 10.50% 24.9%
Regarding my newer inflection point calculations, volume weakened today, so I'd give less weight to the changes. Yesterday we had the three shortest periods weakened and the three longer periods essentially flat, even though showing minuscule improvement. I noted the 5day had a relatively large change and suggests that the next two periods will show an increasing weakness going forward.
Today they do and three longer periods went from flat to negative today. Keep in mind the low volume and weigh these changes accordingly.
_5day_ 10day_ _25day_ _50day_ _100day_ _200day_
104.10 0199.41 0403.23 0787.15 02393.96 06938.51
108.62 0217.53 0411.56 0816.02 02392.42 06998.60
139.76 0245.21 0316.56 0901.07 02660.91 07674.85
060.52 0199.11 0279.09 0692.62 01916.57 06132.57
044.61 0157.16 0278.93 0596.82 01584.16 05445.70
061.59 0161.27 0303.10 0692.72 01837.22 06167.52
066.14 0170.92 0317.77 0683.09 01914.60 06285.66
022.66 0152.87 0307.35 0625.26 01893.73 06289.09
021.38 0085.63 0343.98 0679.05 01908.65 06503.63
034.35 0086.59 0355.65 0678.28 01893.01 06393.67
039.07 0107.82 0364.54 0727.31 02092.50 07044.45
"Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection point changes here are in the latest daily post above.
07/16/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 50, MinTrSz: 400, MaxTrSz: 66257, Vol: 452300, AvTrSz: 9046
Min. Pr: 0.1333, Max Pr: 0.1500, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1398
# Buys, Shares: 8 130714, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1355
# Sells, Shares: 42 321586, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1416
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:2.46 (28.90% "buys"), DlyShts 58457 (12.92%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 18.18%
Odd trading today as at the open we had seventeen consecutive sells at $0.15 for 100K shares. I think this might have been the CDEL 100K offer being depleted as we know it had been offered as low as $0.145 during the last week or so. Some additional thoughts, intraday are in this comment.
Unfortunately, ATDF came with a 137.5K offer at $0.14 at 15:33, dashing hopes that the larger selling might be over. Let's hope it doesn't appear again tomorrow.
Anyway, the next two trades at 9:53/4 dropped to $0.1410 for 15K and pps trended lower bottoming at $0.1333 at 11:29. But we never recovered, peaking at $0.1389 at 15:26  15:33, except for the somewhat usual "support" trade near EOD  a buy of 2k for $0.1399 at 15:46, our closing trade.
Yesterday we saw the predicted VWAP move below $0.14 and we were awaiting the predicted close below $0.14 predicted for this week. We got that and now my concern shifts to whether or not the potential weak(?) support at $0.135 will materialize.
Today it was penetrated and price came back above it. But it did not do so with conviction and I expect further tests of this will break below it within a short time.
The ARCA oddity continues, appearing premarket today only on the buy side with a bid at $0.136 for 10K for the third consecutive day followed by removal of the bid at the open.
I didn't see any "lures" today, probably because the shortterm goals were met with the string of $0.15 trades at $0.15 at the open.
Short percentage continues behaving as expected as buy percentage drops, so does short percentage.
The 5, 10, 25 and 50day averages for the VWAPs again have three down. Today the falling 5, 10, 25day averages and the rising (1/100th penny again) 50day average are $0.1408, $0.1418, $0.1477 and $0.1529, compared to the prior $0.1420, $0.1420, $0.1483 and $0.1528 respectively.
The larger trades (>= 15K) occurred on 6 of the 50 trades, 12.00%. These 214,157 shares were 47.35% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1386. 2 of the larger trades, 33.33%, were buys of 96,257 shares, 44.95% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1347. 4 of the larger trades, 66.67%, were sells of 117,900 shares, 55.05% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1418.
The other 44 trades, 88.00% of the day's trades, traded 238,143 shares, 52.65% of the days volume. The VWAP was $0.1409. 6 trades, 13.64%, were buys and accounted for 34,457 shares, 14.47% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1376. 38 trades, 86.36%, were sells and accounted for 203,686 shares, 85.53% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1414.
On the traditional TA front, beyond just the oscillators I watch, a few trends are worth noting. The first is that as our former support and resistance point of $0.15 was touched today with the spate of 17 sells at the open, price immediately retreated to $0.1401 and continued to drop as described above. Further, my longerterm descending resistance achieved $0.15, AFAICT, and it is likely to continue to have effect going forward, sans a catalyst. I expect it to be a strong resistance as it has an origin and six subsequent touches, including two intraday penetrations, and retreated back below the line in every case.
We had our first test of the expected weak support at $0.135 with an intraday penetration to $0.1333 followed by a weak recovery above $0.135. I don't expect this price to hold for long. The second consecutive day of lower lows suggest the continuation of weakening.
In conjunction with all that, we have the price 10 and 20day averages falling with the 10day leading. The 50day will remain flattish for another week or so, if we stay steady in this range, and it will then begin to weaken too.
Of the traditional TA oscillators I watch, we are still in a mixed bag today, even with improved volume. But it's the first day of improving volume, so no trend can be guessed at and not to much weight should be assigned to the oscillator behavior.
The Bollinger limits both continue to drop, showing $0.1576 and $0.1353 for the upper and lower limits respectively, and price action is continuing to force both lower.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 2.13%, 0.00%, 00.09%, 479.69% and 58.42% respectively. Price spread today was 12.53% vs. 10.13%, 3.37%, 3.88%, 7.84%, 6.21%, 16.19%, 18.52%, 7.07% and 5.08% on prior days.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes. Note the first entry reflects only the 17 sells at the open.
09:3009:30: 100000 shrs, 22.11% of vol, VWAP $0.1500, 000.0% buys
09:5310:01: 045000 shrs, 09.95% of vol, VWAP $0.1408, 022.2% buys
10:0610:19: 080000 shrs, 17.69% of vol, VWAP $0.1364, 000.0% buys
10:4410:44: 042700 shrs, 09.44% of vol, VWAP $0.1390, 000.0% buys
10:5411:29: 061700 shrs, 13.64% of vol, VWAP $0.1343, 066.8% buys
12:0012:46: 086257 shrs, 19.07% of vol, VWAP $0.1353, 078.3% buys
15:2615:46: 036643 shrs, 08.10% of vol, VWAP $0.1390, 032.7% buys
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary price range. Note the last entry contains only the 17 sells at the open for $0.15.
$0.1333$0.1333: 041200 shrs, 09.11% of vol, VWAP $0.1333, 100.0% buys
$0.1353$0.1359: 086257 shrs, 19.07% of vol, VWAP $0.1353, 078.3% buys
$0.1361$0.1362: 090500 shrs, 20.01% of vol, VWAP $0.1361, 000.0% buys
$0.1380$0.1399: 089343 shrs, 19.75% of vol, VWAP $0.1389, 013.4% buys
$0.1406$0.1410: 045000 shrs, 09.95% of vol, VWAP $0.1408, 022.2% buys
$0.1500$0.1500: 100000 shrs, 22.11% of vol, VWAP $0.1500, 000.0% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
06/30 $0.1478 01.84% 15.3%
07/01 $0.1411 04.54% 22.8%
07/02 $0.1447 +02.53% 72.6%
07/03 $0.1430 01.15% 33.9%
07/07 $0.1379 03.59% 28.6%
07/08 $0.1431 +03.78% 47.1%
07/09 $0.1456 +01.80% 36.2%
07/10 $0.1426 02.10% 16.8%
07/11 $0.1412 01.00% 21.4%
07/14 $0.1406 00.37% 91.4%
07/15 $0.1399 00.51% 51.0%
07/16 $0.1398 00.09% 28.9%
Regarding my newer inflection point calculations, volume improved today so I'll give a tad more weight to the changes. Yesterday had the two shortest periods improved, marginally except for the 5day, and the other four weakened. Today we have the three shortest periods weakened and the three longer periods essentially flat, even though showing minuscule improvement. Notable in the shorter periods is that the 5day has a relatively large change and suggests that the next two periods will show an increasing weakness going forward.
_5day_ 10day_ _25day_ _50day_ _100day_ _200day_
799.65 1307.74 2390.47 4575.59 15963.38 52336.74
104.10 0199.41 0403.23 0787.15 02393.96 06938.51
108.62 0217.53 0411.56 0816.02 02392.42 06998.60
139.76 0245.21 0316.56 0901.07 02660.91 07674.85
060.52 0199.11 0279.09 0692.62 01916.57 06132.57
044.61 0157.16 0278.93 0596.82 01584.16 05445.70
061.59 0161.27 0303.10 0692.72 01837.22 06167.52
066.14 0170.92 0317.77 0683.09 01914.60 06285.66
022.66 0152.87 0307.35 0625.26 01893.73 06289.09
021.38 0085.63 0343.98 0679.05 01908.65 06503.63
034.35 0086.59 0355.65 0678.28 01893.01 06393.67
"Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection point changes here are in the latest daily post above.
07/15/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 17, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 32900, Vol: 78025, AvTrSz: 4590
Min. Pr: 0.1362, Max Pr: 0.1500, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1399
# Buys, Shares: 8 39800, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1403
# Sells, Shares: 9 38225, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1395
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1.04:1 (51.01% "buys"), DlyShts 36900 (47.29%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 96.53%
Last week I said that sans a catalyst, I suspected $0.14 will be breached on the close next [now this] week. I thought today was going to do it until the last seven minutes in the day when the bid came up to $0.14/$0.1401 (had sat at $0.1381 x 10K since 13:04 from ATDF) and we got a sell of 1K for $0.14 at 15:53.
I also suggested that as we retreated from the very high daily short percentage we would see VWAP move below $0.14. That did occur today, in spite of the "lures" (described below) attempting to get trading going around $0.15.
With the traditional TA stuff showing weakness, buy percentage generally remaining low (leaving yesterday's aberration behind and starting to return to trend?), daily short percentage in a down leg now, low volume, and our history, I see no reason yet to modify those views.
We had the 100K offer from CDEL for $0.15 again.
We again saw an oddity with ARCA appearing premarket, but only on the buy side today. They bid $0.136 for 10K, the same as the prior day. The bid disappeared at the open, which is a change from the prior couple days.
We had four "lures" today, two buys of 100 shares for $0.15 at 9:47 and 9:49, a buy for 100 shares for $0.1499 at 9:53, and a buy of 100 shares for $0.1443 at 12:49. These were "unique" prices not seen again during the session.
Without these our high would be $0.1438 (2.5K at 10:12).
The short percentage again behaved as it should when the buy percentage moved from yesterday's 91.42% to 51.01% today. Short percentage moved from 60.92% to 47.29% today. I have mentioned as short percentage began to fall that was likely when our share price would move VWAP into the $0.13xx range and our close(s) will drop below $0.14. Part one is done  VWAP today moved from yesterday's $0.1406 to $0.1399 today.
Part two was prevented by the bid going to $0.14 and $0.1401 in the last seven minutes. A 1K sell for $0.14 may have saved the day.
The only "outliers" today were the "fishing lures" described above.
For the 5, 10, 25 and 50day averages for the VWAPs, yesterday we had two up and two down changes. This suggested "noise" and I thought we would want to wait and see if a trend returns. Today we have three down again  maybe the starting to continue the down trend again? Today the falling 5, 10, 25day averages and the rising (1/100th penny) 50day average are $0.1420, $0.1420, $0.1483 and $0.1528 respectively.
The only larger trade was a buy of 32.9K for $0.14 at 12:17.
Of the traditional TA oscillators I watch, we are back to a mixed bag today, thanks again to the anemic volume. As I said yesterday, with ongoing low volume it would be risky to be making any shortterm bets and now today it's not even worth discussing what's up, down or flat in the oscillators.
There are some things "down" I want to mention though. If we throw out our "lures", and use $0.1438 as our high, we would have highs falling for the third consecutive day, along with a lower low today.
The lower Bollinger limit continues to drop, now down from $0.1377 to $0.1366 to now $0.1359. The upper limit has gone from $0.16 to $0.1592 and now $0.1585. Our low today, $0.1362, was barely above the lower limit.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 2.30%, 4.09%, 00.51%, 25.62% and 42.25% respectively. Price spread today was 10.13% vs. 3.37%, 3.88%, 7.84%, 6.21%, 16.19%, 18.52%, 7.07%, 5.08% and 14.29% on prior days.
If we remove our "fishing lures" and use $0.1438 as our high, the high and spread changes go to 0.21% and 5.58% instead of the 4.09% and 10.13% we got.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes. Note the second entry reflects five trades, four of which where our 100 share "lures" at $0.15 (2), $0.1499 and $0.1438.
09:3009:41: 010500 shrs, 13.46% of vol, VWAP $0.1397, 000.0% buys
09:4710:12: 002900 shrs, 03.72% of vol, VWAP $0.1444, 096.6% buys
11:3911:48: 028875 shrs, 37.01% of vol, VWAP $0.1397, 013.9% buys
12:0915:53: 035750 shrs, 45.82% of vol, VWAP $0.1398, 092.3% buys
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary price range. Note the last entry contains three of the four "lures" today and the prior entry contains the other.
$0.1362$0.1393: 017525 shrs, 22.46% of vol, VWAP $0.1389, 000.0% buys
$0.1400$0.1401: 057500 shrs, 73.69% of vol, VWAP $0.1400, 064.2% buys
$0.1438$0.1443: 002700 shrs, 03.46% of vol, VWAP $0.1438, 096.3% buys
$0.1499$0.1500: 000300 shrs, 00.38% of vol, VWAP $0.1500, 100.0% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
06/27 $0.1506 00.63% 29.0%
06/30 $0.1478 01.84% 15.3%
07/01 $0.1411 04.54% 22.8%
07/02 $0.1447 +02.53% 72.6%
07/03 $0.1430 01.15% 33.9%
07/07 $0.1379 03.59% 28.6%
07/08 $0.1431 +03.78% 47.1%
07/09 $0.1456 +01.80% 36.2%
07/10 $0.1426 02.10% 16.8%
07/11 $0.1412 01.00% 21.4%
07/14 $0.1406 00.37% 91.4%
07/15 $0.1399 00.51% 51.0%
Regarding my newer inflection point calculations, volume tanked again, making any reliance on these movements risky. Typical of "noisiness", we switched from five of six periods weakened two days ago to five of six improved yesterday to today's two shortest periods improved and the other four weakened.
_5day_ 10day_ _25day_ _50day_ _100day_ _200day_
143.86 0210.39 0330.08 0757.17 02422.62 06919.24
799.65 1307.74 2390.47 4575.59 15963.38 52336.74
104.10 0199.41 0403.23 0787.15 02393.96 06938.51
108.62 0217.53 0411.56 0816.02 02392.42 06998.60
139.76 0245.21 0316.56 0901.07 02660.91 07674.85
060.52 0199.11 0279.09 0692.62 01916.57 06132.57
044.61 0157.16 0278.93 0596.82 01584.16 05445.70
061.59 0161.27 0303.10 0692.72 01837.22 06167.52
066.14 0170.92 0317.77 0683.09 01914.60 06285.66
022.66 0152.87 0307.35 0625.26 01893.73 06289.09
021.38 0085.63 0343.98 0679.05 01908.65 06503.63
"Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection point changes here are are in the latest dailypost above.
07/14/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 9, MinTrSz: 1000, MaxTrSz: 50000, Vol: 104900, AvTrSz: 11656
Min. Pr: 0.1394, Max Pr: 0.1441, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1406
# Buys, Shares: 7 95900, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1407
# Sells, Shares: 2 9000, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1396
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 10.66:1 (91.42% "buys"), DlyShts 63900 (60.92%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 710.00%
Note the high buy percentage today was predominately an effect of two larger trades, detailed later, and few additional trades with an aggregate low volume. Don't be mislead by the buy percentage.
But do note the short percentage behaved as it should when the buy percentage is this high ... in spades! I suspect a large portion of those two large buys at $0.14 were a substantial portion of the short volume today. If so, as a little volume returns the short percentage should start to return, haltingly at least, towards more normal (for our situation) levels and overshoot, if past behavior is any indication. This is likely when our share price will move VWAP into the $0.13xx range and our close(s) will drop below $0.14.
Volume tanked again and the VWAP decreased 00.37% in spite of the strength suggested by that buy percentage. The only reason buy percentage is that high is that someone dropped the offer to $0.14 at 10:31 and about 67% of the day's volume went off in two buys at $0.14. The rest of the day also stunk up the joint even though there were only two sells in our 10 trades. The offers began low and stayed low.
The large offer at $0.145 of 354K shares from CDEL was absent today. But we did get a 100K offer from CDEL for $0.15.
We again saw an oddity with ARCA appearing premarket on both sides, bidding $0.136 for 10K and offering 11K at $0.1441. Both of these were lower prices than the prior day. At the open the sell side again disappeared. The buy side again hung in all day, but had no chance.
I initially thought the recently seen aggressive vying for best offer between NITE and ATDF returned today. It just fizzled though. ATDF spent the majority of the day as best on both sides.
There were no "outliers" today.
Yesterday we returned, almost 100%, to the downward trend in the VWAP averages with only the 50day average avoiding a drop by remaining flat at $0.1525. Today, two up, two down suggests just noise going on for the moment. We'll have to wait for a trend to return I guess. Readings for the 5, 10, 25 and 50day averages are $0.1426, $0.1427, $0.1491 and $0.1527 respectively.
There were only two larger trades, both buys, one of 20K for $0.14 at 10:27 and one of 50K for $0.14 at 10:32. They accounted for 66.73% of the day's volume. They were also at the low of the day along with a 3K sell for $0.14 at 14:03, the closing trade.
Of the traditional TA oscillators I watch, we have less of a mixed bag today. There's none flat now. Most are weaker  full stochastic (going into oversold tomorrow, probably), ADX related, Williams %R (teetering right at oversold), momentum and RSI, which was flat. MFI continued its small up tick. With ongoing low volume it would be risky to be making any shortterm bets.
The lower Bollinger limit continues to drop, now down from $0.1377 to $0.1366. The upper limit transitioned from flat, at $0.16, to beginning a fall today with a reading of $0.1592. It should pick up steam heading lower unless some catalyst pops the share price.
Yesterday I said that sans a catalyst, I suspected $0.14 will be breached on the close next [now this] week. With the highs continuing down for the second consecutive day, the traditional TA stuff showing weakness, and our history, I see no reason yet to modify that view.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 0.29%, 0.21%, 00.37%, 24.04% and 131.52% respectively. Price spread today was 3.37% vs. 3.88%, 7.84%, 6.21%, 16.19%, 18.52%, 7.07%, 5.08%, 14.29% and 7.78% on prior days.
No trading breakdowns today  I have trouble seeing any rational on it for 10 trades. Even the ones I did with 15 trades or so were marginal utility IMO.
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
06/26 $0.1515 +00.11% 28.8%
06/27 $0.1506 00.63% 29.0%
06/30 $0.1478 01.84% 15.3%
07/01 $0.1411 04.54% 22.8%
07/02 $0.1447 +02.53% 72.6%
07/03 $0.1430 01.15% 33.9%
07/07 $0.1379 03.59% 28.6%
07/08 $0.1431 +03.78% 47.1%
07/09 $0.1456 +01.80% 36.2%
07/10 $0.1426 02.10% 16.8%
07/11 $0.1412 01.00% 21.4%
07/14 $0.1406 00.37% 91.4%
Regarding my newer inflection point calculations, volume tanked again. Typical of "noisiness", we switched from five of six periods weakening yesterday to five of six improving today. Yesterday I said we could cautiously read bearishness into yesterday's changes, but it seems prudent to wait and see if we are trending or just getting lowvolume noise. Now we know.
_5day_ 10day_ _25day_ _50day_ _100day_ _200day_
143.86 0210.39 0330.08 0757.17 02422.62 06919.24
799.65 1307.74 2390.47 4575.59 15963.38 52336.74
104.10 0199.41 0403.23 0787.15 02393.96 06938.51
108.62 0217.53 0411.56 0816.02 02392.42 06998.60
139.76 0245.21 0316.56 0901.07 02660.91 07674.85
060.52 0199.11 0279.09 0692.62 01916.57 06132.57
044.61 0157.16 0278.93 0596.82 01584.16 05445.70
061.59 0161.27 0303.10 0692.72 01837.22 06167.52
066.14 0170.92 0317.77 0683.09 01914.60 06285.66
022.66 0152.87 0307.35 0625.26 01893.73 06289.09
"Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection point changes here are in the latest daily post above.
07/11/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 15, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 30000, Vol: 138100, AvTrSz: 9207
Min. Pr: 0.1390, Max Pr: 0.1444, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1412
# Buys, Shares: 4 29600, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1428
# Sells, Shares: 11 108500, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1407
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:3.67 (21.43% "buys"), DlyShts 27600 (19.99%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 25.44%
Volume improved from yesterday's 75K and 10 trades to 14 trades and ~138K, thanks to three larger trades. Unfortunately VWAP declined 1% even as the buy percentage improved to 21.4% from yesterday's 16.78%. Not surprising, I guess, since 21.4% buys is really no great shakes either.
The large offer at $0.145 of 354K shares from CDEL was absent today.
We again saw an oddity with ARCA appearing premarket on both sides, bidding $0.1352 for 5K and offering 31.9K at $0.147. At the open the sell side disappeared. The buy side hung in all day, but had no chance.
The recently seen aggressive vying for best offer between NITE and ATDF returned today. But today it looked not so much like a contest to be on top as it seemed like NITE messing with the mind of ATDF. >:} See the thread in the APC starting here for more details.
Daily short sales percentage directional correlation with buy percentage "behaved" better as the buy percentage improved. The short percentage recovered from yesterday's aberration of 0.80% to 19.99%.
The only "outlier" today was due to superlatives: the first trade, the largest trade, 30K, and lowest price of the day, $0.1390. Other than that, nothing special  next highest prices came in at $0.1405, $0.1406, ... The next largest trade was 20K at $0.1430, roughly midrange of the day's low and high.
Yesterday I noted we had a break, significance unknown yet, in the 5, 10, 25 and 50day VWAP averages, which had been all descending. They improved slightly. ACK! Today we returned, almost 100% to the downward trend with only the 50day average avoiding a drop by remaining flat at $0.1525. The 5, 10 and 25day averages weakened and are now $0.1421, $0.1437 and $0.1498 respectively.
The larger trades (>= 15K) occurred on 3 of the 15 trades, 20.00%. These 66,000 shares were 47.79% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1406. 1 of the larger trades, 33.33%, were buys of 20,000 shares, 30.30% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1430. 2 of the larger trades, 66.67%, were sells of 46,000 shares, 69.70% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1396.
The other 12 trades, 80.00% of the day's trades, traded 72,100 shares, 52.21% of the days volume. The VWAP was $0.1417. 3 trades, 25.00%, were buys and accounted for 9,600 shares, 13.31% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1425. 9 trades, 75.00%, were sells and accounted for 62,500 shares, 86.69% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1416.
Of the traditional TA oscillators I watch, we have a mixed bag. There's a few flat  Williams %R, momentum and RSI. A couple are weaker  full stochastic and ADX related. One has a tiny uptick  MFI. With ongoing low volume and relatively high price volatility, this somewhat directionless behavior should be expected I guess.
The lower Bollinger limit continues to drop, now at $0.1377.
The intraday low dropped to $0.139 from yesterday's $0.1391. Sans a catalyst, I suspect $0.14 will be breached on the close next week.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 0.07%, 3.73%, 01.00%, 83.89% and 4500.00% respectively. Price spread today was 3.88% vs. 7.84%, 6.21%, 16.19%, 18.52%, 7.07%, 5.08%, 14.29%, 7.78% and 1.67% on prior days.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes. Note the first entry is a single trade, the largest and the lowest priced of the day.
09:4609:46: 030000 shrs, 21.72% of vol, VWAP $0.1390, 000.0% buys
10:5311:06: 016500 shrs, 11.95% of vol, VWAP $0.1444, 012.1% buys
13:3813:39: 010100 shrs, 07.31% of vol, VWAP $0.1406, 001.0% buys
14:0514:12: 028000 shrs, 20.28% of vol, VWAP $0.1406, 000.0% buys
15:0915:42: 027500 shrs, 19.91% of vol, VWAP $0.1427, 100.0% buys
15:4615:49: 026000 shrs, 18.83% of vol, VWAP $0.1408, 000.0% buys
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary price range. Note the first entry is a single trade, the largest and the lowest priced of the day.
$0.1390$0.1390: 030000 shrs, 21.72% of vol, VWAP $0.1390, 000.0% buys
$0.1405$0.1408: 063500 shrs, 45.98% of vol, VWAP $0.1407, 000.0% buys
$0.1420$0.1430: 028100 shrs, 20.35% of vol, VWAP $0.1427, 098.2% buys
$0.1443$0.1444: 016500 shrs, 11.95% of vol, VWAP $0.1444, 012.1% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
06/25 $0.1513 +00.62% 19.5%
06/26 $0.1515 +00.11% 28.8%
06/27 $0.1506 00.63% 29.0%
06/30 $0.1478 01.84% 15.3%
07/01 $0.1411 04.54% 22.8%
07/02 $0.1447 +02.53% 72.6%
07/03 $0.1430 01.15% 33.9%
07/07 $0.1379 03.59% 28.6%
07/08 $0.1431 +03.78% 47.1%
07/09 $0.1456 +01.80% 36.2%
07/10 $0.1426 02.10% 16.8%
07/11 $0.1412 01.00% 21.4%
Regarding my newer inflection point calculations, volume came up a bit today and we continued the weakening started yesterday with today having five of six periods weakening. We still don't know if we'll just go back to a period of "noise" or we'll start to see a trend. Similar to yesterday's 10 trades and 75K shares traded, today we had only 15 trades and ~138K shares traded, with volume improved thanks to three larger trades. We could cautiously read bearishness into today's changes, but it seems prudent to wait and see if we are trending or just getting lowvolume noise.
_5day_ 10day_ _25day_ _50day_ _100day_ _200day_
098.54 0146.79 0210.95 0611.03 02107.24 06343.32
143.86 0210.39 0330.08 0757.17 02422.62 06919.24
799.65 1307.74 2390.47 4575.59 15963.38 52336.74
104.10 0199.41 0403.23 0787.15 02393.96 06938.51
108.62 0217.53 0411.56 0816.02 02392.42 06998.60
139.76 0245.21 0316.56 0901.07 02660.91 07674.85
060.52 0199.11 0279.09 0692.62 01916.57 06132.57
044.61 0157.16 0278.93 0596.82 01584.16 05445.70
061.59 0161.27 0303.10 0692.72 01837.22 06167.52
066.14 0170.92 0317.77 0683.09 01914.60 06285.66
"Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection point changes here are in the latest daily post above.
07/10/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 10, MinTrSz: 500, MaxTrSz: 30000, Vol: 75100, AvTrSz: 7510
Min. Pr: 0.1391, Max Pr: 0.1500, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1426
# Buys, Shares: 3 12600, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1448
# Sells, Shares: 7 62500, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1421
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:4.96 (16.78% "buys"), DlyShts 600 (00.80%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 0.96%
The effects of the announcement of a new CEO and board chairman appointment seems to abating. Volume tanked to about 75K and 10 trades, totaling $10,708.55, and buy percentage dropped further to 16.78% from 36.2% yesterday and 47.1% before that.
The large offer at $0.145 of 354K shares from CDEL returned again today.
An oddity seen today was ARCA appearing premarket on both sides, bidding $0.1311 for 11K and offering 16K at $0.16. At the open both disappeared.
The aggressive vying for best offer between NITE and ATDF seen the prior two days was not present today.
Daily short sales percentage directional correlation with buy percentage continued to "behave" as the severely reduced buy percentage, 36.17% to 16.78%, was accompanied by a severely reduced daily short percentage, 32.97% to 0.80%. Note that the majority of this reduction is likely due to the reduced volume combined with ~220K to ~500K volume over the last three days combined with short percentages ~33% to ~43% and price spreads that offered plenty of covering buy opportunities. That means the shares backing sell orders flow in making the MMs long at low cost. I mention this because this degree of change in short percentage is extremely unusual relative to the movement in the buy percentage.
There were two "outliers" today but with only ten trades and 75K shares traded and $10,708.55 in trades, we really can't give the usual jaundiced eye to them. Anyway, the low of $0.1391 was a single 7.5K sell, the second trade of the day, and the high was a single 5K sell at $0.1500 at 9:30, the first trade of the day.
Recent VWAPs oldest through today: $0.1478, $0.1411, $0.1447, $0.1430, $0.1379, $0.1431, $0.1456 and $0.1426.
Yesterday I noted we had a break, significance unknown yet, in the 5, 10, 25 and 50day VWAP averages, which had been all descending. The 5day improved from $0.1419 and the 50day was flat. Today the prior trend of all weakening returned. Today they are $0.1424, $0.1448, $0.1505 and $0.1525 for the 5, 10, 25 and 50day VWAP averages respectively.
There was only one larger trade, a 30K buy for $0.1430. It was 39.95% of the day's volume.
Of the traditional TA oscillators I watch, all but ADX related reversed course, going from upticks to weakening. With my thinking the effects of the CEO PR are wearing off, I'm inclined to give a small amount of credence to these moves. However, with abysmal volume I'm going to hold off on that.
The price action pushing the lower Bollinger limit finally had effect as it has started to drop again. That limit has now moved to $0.1388.
The intraday low, which had stayed at $0.14 or slightly better 5 of the last 8 days, dropped to $0.1391 today. In conjunction with that behavior, the descending resistance was challenged by three intraday highs of $0.16 during this period and held. Moreover, the remaining days' highs in that period challenged our known resistance at $0.15 and were rebuffed each time.
With all the above behavior over a string of days and the new CEO PR effects apparently abating I believe this is bearish regardless of the very low volumes. Only the very low volume keeps the confidence level of this assessment down.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 0.71%, 0.81%, 2.10%, 77.68% and 99.46% respectively. Price spread today was 7.84% vs. 6.21%, 16.19%, 18.52%, 7.07%, 5.08%, 14.29%, 7.78%, 1.67% and 6.60% on prior days.
No trading breakdowns today.
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
06/24 $0.1504 00.13% 13.3%
06/25 $0.1513 +00.62% 19.5%
06/26 $0.1515 +00.11% 28.8%
06/27 $0.1506 00.63% 29.0%
06/30 $0.1478 01.84% 15.3%
07/01 $0.1411 04.54% 22.8%
07/02 $0.1447 +02.53% 72.6%
07/03 $0.1430 01.15% 33.9%
07/07 $0.1379 03.59% 28.6%
07/08 $0.1431 +03.78% 47.1%
07/09 $0.1456 +01.80% 36.2%
07/10 $0.1426 02.10% 16.8%
Regarding my newer inflection point calculations, volume tanked today and we switched from two consecutive days of all periods improved to all periods weaker. It looks like the effects of the announcement of the new CEO and board chairman appointment are wearing off. We don't know if we'll just go back to a period of "noise" or we'll start to see a trend. So we exit the waiting a few days for the announcement effects to abate and enter a period of waiting a couple days to see if a trend develops or we just get noise. With only 10 trades and 75K shares traded we certainly don't yet read anything into today's changes.
_5day_ 10day_ _25day_ _50day_ _100day_ _200day_
104.97 0139.46 0223.90 0589.67 02102.07 06296.39
098.54 0146.79 0210.95 0611.03 02107.24 06343.32
143.86 0210.39 0330.08 0757.17 02422.62 06919.24
799.65 1307.74 2390.47 4575.59 15963.38 52336.74
104.10 0199.41 0403.23 0787.15 02393.96 06938.51
108.62 0217.53 0411.56 0816.02 02392.42 06998.60
139.76 0245.21 0316.56 0901.07 02660.91 07674.85
060.52 0199.11 0279.09 0692.62 01916.57 06132.57
044.61 0157.16 0278.93 0596.82 01584.16 05445.70
061.59 0161.27 0303.10 0692.72 01837.22 06167.52
"Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection point changes here are in the latest daily post above.
07/09/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 50, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 40000, Vol: 336501, AvTrSz: 6730
Min. Pr: 0.1401, Max Pr: 0.1488, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1456
# Buys, Shares: 27 121700, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1461
# Sells, Shares: 23 214801, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1454
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:1.77 (36.17% "buys"), DlyShts 110951 (32.97%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 51.65%
The company announcement of a new CEO and board chairman appointment seems to still be affecting the action today as we had some more VWAP price improvement even though the high was way down. Volume was improved from yesterday's too, but it's still low. The buy percentage dropped from 47.1% to 36.2% though, reinforcing my concern about the volume.
I had failed in the prior post to mention some significant action in the bid/ask movements and it ran across my mind today when I saw the same sort of action for the second consecutive day. I posted a comment about it in APC 347 here. In summary, ATDF and NITE had an extended battle for best offer on the sellside. Part of the ATDF action was normal scalping impetus, I'm sure, but the jostling was much more determined and extended than usual. Since it was reduced a small bit from yesterday I'm hopeful that this is the start of a reduction in selling pressure. But we really won't know for another day or two.
Yesterday and Tuesday I forgot to note that the $0.135 support I expected apparently came into play on Monday, 7/7, as we "bounced" off it and back into the mid$0.14 range. Because of the PR regarding the new CEO appointment appeared we can't make a fair judgment on it though. I'll note only that the four days before the touch occurred we had bottoms near $0.14, which failed to hold. The touch of $0.135 occurred on a higher volume, 500K vs. the prior, newest to oldest, ~326K, ~73.05 and ~170K. This does suggest that it did act as support. That day, 7/7, VWAP was $0.1379 and then it moved to $0.1431 Tuesday and to $0.1456 today. This may mean that we could hang in the $0.14 range for a bit. It's more wait and see though with the volume and price action and PR about the CEO.
Daily short sales percentage directional correlation with buy percentage continued to "behave" as the reduced buy percentage was accompanied by a reduced daily short percentage..
There were no "outliers" today as both the low and the high were both close to other prices and fit the trends of prices. The number of 100 share trades were within normal ranges, in today's case three 100 shares trades and two 500 and three 700 to 800.
Recent VWAPs oldest through today: $0.1506 ($0.1502 if those "outliers" are excluded), $0.1478, $0.1411, $0.1447, $0.1430, $0.1379, $0.1431 and $0.1456.
We've had a break, significance unknown yet, in the 5, 10, 25 and 50day VWAP averages, which were all descending. Today they are $0.1428, $0.1456, $0.1511 and $0.1526 respectively. The 5day improved from $0.1419 and the 50day is flat. Significance can't be judged with confidence because we still have very low volume and, possibly, effects from the CEO change PR.
The larger trades (>= 15K) occurred on 7 of the 50 trades, 14.00%. These 156,850 shares were 46.61% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1461. 2 of the larger trades, 28.57%, were buys of 35,000 shares, 22.31% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1456. 5 of the larger trades, 71.43%, were sells of 121,850 shares, 77.69% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1462.
The other 43 trades, 86.00% of the day's trades, traded 179,651 shares, 53.39% of the days volume. The VWAP was $0.1453. 25 trades, 58.14%, were buys and accounted for 86,700 shares, 48.26% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1463. 18 trades, 41.86%, were sells and accounted for 92,951 shares, 51.74% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1443.
All the oscillators I watch, again except for ADX related, again ticked up today. I'm still waiting another day or so before trying to assess anything.
The price action continued pushing the lower Bollinger limit but the lower limit went flat after being pushed down for six consecutive days. The intraday low improved a wee bit by going no lower than that potential weak, IMO, support at $0.14.
Recall yesterday I mentioned the second consecutive day of our high of $0.16 penetrating a descending resistance. Both days we fell back well below that resistance, which seemed to be at ~$0.157. Today we came nowhere near that resistance. Instead we topped just below our old friend, $0.15. This is not a good sign. However, we do have three consecutive days of higher lows, so keep our fingers crossed that it's more than just another long consolidation period, which seems a likely scenario. A repeated challenge of $0.15 might get us back into the $0.15  $0.18 sideways channel. Unlikely?
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 1.74%, 7.00%, 1.80%, 53.16% and 18.38% respectively. Price spread today was 6.21% vs. 16.19%, 18.52%, 7.07%, 5.08%, 14.29%, 7.78%, 1.67%, 6.60% and 6.67% on prior days.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes. Note the first period is only the 15K $0.16 outlier.
10:1710:32: 026151 shrs, 07.77% of vol, VWAP $0.1425, 045.9% buys
10:3513:27: 041500 shrs, 12.33% of vol, VWAP $0.1427, 042.2% buys
13:3014:27: 119300 shrs, 35.45% of vol, VWAP $0.1452, 062.3% buys
14:2914:59: 057000 shrs, 16.94% of vol, VWAP $0.1463, 012.3% buys
15:2115:56: 090050 shrs, 26.76% of vol, VWAP $0.1480, 009.3% buys
15:5715:57: 002500 shrs, 00.74% of vol, VWAP $0.1488, 100.0% buys
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary price range. Note the lat entry is only the $0.1600 outlier.
$0.1401$0.1420: 038151 shrs, 11.34% of vol, VWAP $0.1407, 000.0% buys
$0.1440$0.1459: 111300 shrs, 33.08% of vol, VWAP $0.1449, 059.6% buys
$0.1460$0.1475: 099500 shrs, 29.57% of vol, VWAP $0.1462, 037.2% buys
$0.1480$0.1488: 087550 shrs, 26.02% of vol, VWAP $0.1482, 021.0% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
06/23 $0.1506 01.56% 02.8%
06/24 $0.1504 00.13% 13.3%
06/25 $0.1513 +00.62% 19.5%
06/26 $0.1515 +00.11% 28.8%
06/27 $0.1506 00.63% 29.0%
06/30 $0.1478 01.84% 15.3%
07/01 $0.1411 04.54% 22.8%
07/02 $0.1447 +02.53% 72.6%
07/03 $0.1430 01.15% 33.9%
07/07 $0.1379 03.59% 28.6%
07/08 $0.1431 +03.78% 47.1%
07/09 $0.1456 +01.80% 36.2%
Regarding my newer inflection point calculations, volume improved a bit today and we got a second consecutive day of all periods improved again. I suspected the announcement of the new CEO and board chairman appointment caused yesterday's improvement. I suspect it's still in effect and we'll need another day or two to try and make any assessment of these calculations' meanings.
_5day_ 10day_ _25day_ _50day_ _100day_ _200day_
091.97 0140.87 0228.39 0667.19 02113.59 06461.46
104.97 0139.46 0223.90 0589.67 02102.07 06296.39
098.54 0146.79 0210.95 0611.03 02107.24 06343.32
143.86 0210.39 0330.08 0757.17 02422.62 06919.24
799.65 1307.74 2390.47 4575.59 15963.38 52336.74
104.10 0199.41 0403.23 0787.15 02393.96 06938.51
108.62 0217.53 0411.56 0816.02 02392.42 06998.60
139.76 0245.21 0316.56 0901.07 02660.91 07674.85
060.52 0199.11 0279.09 0692.62 01916.57 06132.57
044.61 0157.16 0278.93 0596.82 01584.16 05445.70
"Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection point changes here are in the latest daily post above.
07/08/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 37, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 30000, Vol: 219704, AvTrSz: 5938
Min. Pr: 0.1377, Max Pr: 0.1600, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1431
# Buys, Shares: 20 103554, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1467
# Sells, Shares: 17 116150, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1398
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:1.12 (47.13% "buys"), DlyShts 93722 (42.66%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 80.69%
Today the company announced a new CEO and board chairman appointment. This seems to have affected the action today as we had some price improvement even though volume was lower.
I'm not yet changing my mind on $0.14 not appearing viable. If the improvement in price today was an effect of this announcement and the apparently determined sellers were not swayed, the buying improvement will abate and we'll see behavior where sellers dominate again. This is one of those "wait a couple days" situations.
Daily short sales percentage directional correlation with buy percentage came back today after several days of disconnect, likely due to the very low volumes we've been seeing. Interestingly, due to some unique trade sizes, I was able to identify some buys that were not shorted and calculate that 90.49% of buys were shorted. Also on 7/2, due to some unique trade sizes and very small volume (~73K), I could identify specific trades as being sold short. That day 71.49% of buys were short. I wish I could do this most days but if volume is higher it's just not possible for me to do so.
Our "outlier" today was one buy of 15K shares for $0.16 at 9:30:09, the first trade of the session. The immediately following trades, at various sizes in the first few minutes, were at $0.1401, $0.15 and $0.1411. The next lower prices below $0.16 were $0.15, $0.1490, $0.1450 and $0.1449.
With intraday lowvolume infrequent trading our second potential "outlier" was reached, the low of the day, at 10:50 at $0.1377 on a 30K sell and a later 1K sell at 11:05. The next higher price was a single 10.3K sell at $0.1378 and some volume finally came in at $0.1400. All this was pretty much "in trend" though as price movement was leading to the low and I can't really consider that 30K an outlier with the trend being what it was and the other prices with some volume not being far removed.
Recent VWAPs oldest through today: $0.1515, $0.1506 ($0.1502 if those "outliers" are excluded), $0.1478, $0.1411, $0.1447, $0.1430, $0.1379 and $0.1431. 5, 10, 25 and 50day VWAP averages, are all still descending. Today they are $0.1419, $0.1461, $0.1520 and $0.1526.
Note in the larger trades that if the single 15K $0.16 buy is removed there were only two trades totaling 45K, both sells, one of 15K for $0.1420 and one for 30K at $0.1377, the low of the day. The 30K was also an outlier and that should be considered also.
The larger trades (>= 15K) occurred on 3 of the 37 trades, 8.11%. These 60,000 shares were 27.31% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1444. 1 of the larger trades, 33.33%, were buys of 15,000 shares, 25.00% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1600. 2 of the larger trades, 66.67%, were sells of 45,000 shares, 75.00% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1391.
The other 34 trades, 91.89% of the day's trades, traded 159,704 shares, 72.69% of the days volume. The VWAP was $0.1426. 19 trades, 55.88%, were buys and accounted for 88,554 shares, 55.45% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1445. 15 trades, 44.12%, were sells and accounted for 71,150 shares, 44.55% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1403.
The oscillators I watch, except for ADX related, all ticked up today, probably due to the CEO announcement and low volume with price improvement. I'll be waiting a couple days before trying to assess anything.
The price action continued pushing the lower Bollinger limit down for the sixth consecutive day and the intraday low again penetrated a potential weak, IMO, support at $0.14.
Something I hadn't mentioned is that for the second consecutive day our high of $0.16 penetrated a descending resistance. Both days we fell back well below that resistance, which seems to be at ~$0.157 today. If the single $0.16 trade each of those days is discounted, we did not breach the resistance.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 2.00%, 0.00%, 3.78%, 56.09% and 46.85% respectively. Price spread today was 16.19% vs. 18.52%, 7.07%, 5.08%, 14.29%, 7.78%, 1.67%, 6.60%, 6.67% and 1.93% on prior days.
Note that if the "outlier" high of $0.16 for 15K shares is removed and we use $0.1500 as the high, the high movement becomes 6.25% instead of +0.00% and the spread becomes 8.93% instead of 16.19%.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes. Note the first period is only the 15K $0.16 outlier.
09:3009:30: 015000 shrs, 06.83% of vol, VWAP $0.1600, 100.0% buys
09:3310:25: 028850 shrs, 13.13% of vol, VWAP $0.1413, 006.9% buys
10:4911:05: 041300 shrs, 18.80% of vol, VWAP $0.1377, 000.0% buys
11:0912:46: 033522 shrs, 15.26% of vol, VWAP $0.1403, 039.4% buys
13:2514:40: 072500 shrs, 33.00% of vol, VWAP $0.1431, 061.8% buys
14:4115:03: 013532 shrs, 06.16% of vol, VWAP $0.1493, 100.0% buys
15:2815:29: 015000 shrs, 06.83% of vol, VWAP $0.1450, 100.0% buys
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary price range. Note the lat entry is only the $0.1600 outlier.
$0.1377$0.1378: 041300 shrs, 18.80% of vol, VWAP $0.1377, 000.0% buys
$0.1400$0.1411: 058372 shrs, 26.57% of vol, VWAP $0.1403, 019.2% buys
$0.1420$0.1430: 055000 shrs, 25.03% of vol, VWAP $0.1425, 049.6% buys
$0.1449$0.1450: 034500 shrs, 15.70% of vol, VWAP $0.1449, 100.0% buys
$0.1490$0.1500: 015532 shrs, 07.07% of vol, VWAP $0.1494, 100.0% buys
$0.1600$0.1600: 015000 shrs, 06.83% of vol, VWAP $0.1600, 100.0% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
06/20 $0.1530 00.59% 20.8%
06/23 $0.1506 01.56% 02.8%
06/24 $0.1504 00.13% 13.3%
06/25 $0.1513 +00.62% 19.5%
06/26 $0.1515 +00.11% 28.8%
06/27 $0.1506 00.63% 29.0%
06/30 $0.1478 01.84% 15.3%
07/01 $0.1411 04.54% 22.8%
07/02 $0.1447 +02.53% 72.6%
07/03 $0.1430 01.15% 33.9%
07/07 $0.1379 03.59% 28.6%
07/08 $0.1431 +03.78% 47.1%
Regarding my newer inflection point calculations, volume fell off again today and we got the return of potential noise as we switched to all periods improved again. We almost had a trend going, but I suspect the announcement of the new CEO and board chairman appointment cause today improvement.
_5day_ 10day_ _25day_ _50day_ _100day_ _200day_
078.66 0148.10 0223.43 0692.98 02191.02 06716.74
091.97 0140.87 0228.39 0667.19 02113.59 06461.46
104.97 0139.46 0223.90 0589.67 02102.07 06296.39
098.54 0146.79 0210.95 0611.03 02107.24 06343.32
143.86 0210.39 0330.08 0757.17 02422.62 06919.24
799.65 1307.74 2390.47 4575.59 15963.38 52336.74
104.10 0199.41 0403.23 0787.15 02393.96 06938.51
108.62 0217.53 0411.56 0816.02 02392.42 06998.60
139.76 0245.21 0316.56 0901.07 02660.91 07674.85
060.52 0199.11 0279.09 0692.62 01916.57 06132.57
"Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection point changes here are in the latest daily post above.
07/07/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 85, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 75000, Vol: 500365, AvTrSz: 5887
Min. Pr: 0.1350, Max Pr: 0.1600, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1379
# Buys, Shares: 48 143165, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1402
# Sells, Shares: 37 357200, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1369
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:2.50 (28.61% "buys"), DlyShts 176325 (35.24%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 49.36%
I had mentioned in comments recently that $0.14 was not long for this world and that stronger support might exist at $0.135, although I didn't feel it was all that strong and $0.125 was a more likely support if we get there. It looks like we'll find out soon enough. The oscillators I watch, the VWAP movements, the volume up on a VWAP down day, my newer inflection point calculations, ... all suggest a negative slope will continue for now.
From 12:37 forward it appeared that another long string of 100 share buys was going to be seen, but it wasn't able to maintain. Only 28 of the 58 trades from then to the close were for 100 shares as a large number of sells, mostly, and a few buys for other prices and sizes kept breaking the chain. Today was different also because there were mixed buys and sells in the 100 share trades.
Yesterday my TFH caused me to suspect that the owner of the big block to be sold is a good enough customer that his broker, who probably has a marketmaking arm, was chipping in to move the market up to get a better price for those shares.
Today seems to discount that thought and JP's comment that some might be gaming the reversesplit seems more likely.
Our "outliers" today were one buy of 200 shares for $0.16 at 9:30:17, the ninth trade of the session, and one 8K trade for $0.1491 at 11:09. I'm not sure this second is really that far "out of band" as the next lower price of $0.1475 had four buys, all at 9:30, then $0.1474 (one buy) and then a bunch of $0.1419 buys.
Yesterday I thought it looked like "they" were trying to move the market above $0.15, at which time I expect selling to come back in. Half right and wrong. Today doesn't look like an ongoing attempt to move the market up, but the sellers did, indeed, come back in. Buy percentage dropped from yesterdays 33.9%, which wasn't all that strong to start with, and the sell percentage moved from 66.1% to 72.4%. All this while VWAP dropped 3.59% and volume jumped 193.51% to ~500.4K.
Recent VWAPs oldest through today: $0.1513, $0.1515, $0.1506 ($0.1502 if those "outliers" are excluded), $0.1478, $0.1411, $0.1447, $0.1430 and $0.1379. 5, 10 and 25day VWAP averages, are all still descending. Today they are $0.1429, $0.1469 and $0.1527 respectively. We now have the 50day average VWAP dropping for the third consecutive day. Today it is $0.1527 vs. $0.1529, $0.1531 and $0.1530 on prior days.
The larger trades (>= 15K) occurred on 9 of the 85 trades, 10.59%. These 249,600 shares were 49.88% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1371. 2 of the larger trades, 22.22%, were buys of 31,000 shares, 12.42% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1409. 7 of the larger trades, 77.78%, were sells of 218,600 shares, 87.58% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1366.
The other 76 trades, 89.41% of the day's trades, traded 250,765 shares, 50.12% of the days volume. The VWAP was $0.1386. 46 trades, 60.53%, were buys and accounted for 112,165 shares, 44.73% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1400. 30 trades, 39.47%, were sells and accounted for 138,600 shares, 55.27% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1375.
Yesterday the oscillators I watch mostly all reversed from yesterday's trend continuation of all having small ticks up again except MFI was weakened slightly and ADX related was flat. Today all but ADX related have rolled over and have down ticks of varying strengths.
The price action continues pushing the lower Bollinger limit down for the fifth consecutive day. Further, the intraday low penetrated a potential weak support at $0.14, which I didn't believe would offer any real support because it was just the extreme of some sideways trading for the most part, and we closed right on it. Today and the rest of the week should let us know.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 3.57%, 6.74%, 3.59%, 193.51% and 1192.71% respectively. Price spread today was 18.52% vs 7.07%, 5.08%, 14.29%, 7.78% vs. 1.67%, 6.60%, 6.67%, 1.93% and 2.80% on prior days.
Note that if the "outlier" high of $0.16 for 200 shares is removed and we use $0.1491 as the high, the high movement becomes 0.53% instead of +6.74% and the spread becomes 10.44% instead of 18.52%.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes.
09:3009:30: 017350 shrs, 03.47% of vol, VWAP $0.1428, 022.2% buys
09:4111:09: 015500 shrs, 03.10% of vol, VWAP $0.1465, 100.0% buys
11:3012:27: 016740 shrs, 03.35% of vol, VWAP $0.1411, 008.6% buys
12:3612:37: 166700 shrs, 33.32% of vol, VWAP $0.1382, 013.8% buys
12:4512:46: 020100 shrs, 04.02% of vol, VWAP $0.1386, 050.2% buys
12:4712:51: 004900 shrs, 00.98% of vol, VWAP $0.1352, 000.0% buys
12:5213:09: 015900 shrs, 03.18% of vol, VWAP $0.1419, 100.0% buys
13:1113:55: 021000 shrs, 04.20% of vol, VWAP $0.1393, 040.5% buys
13:5714:10: 163600 shrs, 32.70% of vol, VWAP $0.1353, 006.1% buys
14:2614:49: 007500 shrs, 01.50% of vol, VWAP $0.1380, 100.0% buys
14:5214:56: 030000 shrs, 06.00% of vol, VWAP $0.1360, 089.3% buys
15:2815:46: 021075 shrs, 04.21% of vol, VWAP $0.1400, 097.6% buys
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary price range.
$0.1350$0.1360: 273600 shrs, 54.68% of vol, VWAP $0.1355, 009.8% buys
$0.1380$0.1390: 031000 shrs, 06.20% of vol, VWAP $0.1382, 082.3% buys
$0.1400$0.1419: 181415 shrs, 36.26% of vol, VWAP $0.1405, 042.2% buys
$0.1474$0.1475: 006150 shrs, 01.23% of vol, VWAP $0.1475, 100.0% buys
$0.1491$0.1600: 008200 shrs, 01.64% of vol, VWAP $0.1494, 100.0% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
06/19 $0.1539 +00.25% 66.4%
06/20 $0.1530 00.59% 20.8%
06/23 $0.1506 01.56% 02.8%
06/24 $0.1504 00.13% 13.3%
06/25 $0.1513 +00.62% 19.5%
06/26 $0.1515 +00.11% 28.8%
06/27 $0.1506 00.63% 29.0%
06/30 $0.1478 01.84% 15.3%
07/01 $0.1411 04.54% 22.8%
07/02 $0.1447 +02.53% 72.6%
07/03 $0.1430 01.15% 33.9%
07/07 $0.1379 03.59% 28.6%
Regarding my newer inflection point calculations, I said yesterday "... I'd think lowvolume induced noise again but there's something different in the trading. Lateday strength with relatively high price and buy percentage. It makes me think someone is playing the reversesplit scenario. We'll have to wait and see". Recalling the odd trading described above, I think it's the TFH scenario of the market being moved so that selling above $0.15 can be done. This seems somewhat supported by the fact that five of the six periods weakened today, meaning that regardless of the apparent improvements there seems little strength.
_5day_ 10day_ _25day_ _50day_ _100day_ _200day_
065.39 0114.95 0173.16 0757.12 02266.15 06822.91
078.66 0148.10 0223.43 0692.98 02191.02 06716.74
091.97 0140.87 0228.39 0667.19 02113.59 06461.46
104.97 0139.46 0223.90 0589.67 02102.07 06296.39
098.54 0146.79 0210.95 0611.03 02107.24 06343.32
143.86 0210.39 0330.08 0757.17 02422.62 06919.24
799.65 1307.74 2390.47 4575.59 15963.38 52336.74
104.10 0199.41 0403.23 0787.15 02393.96 06938.51
108.62 0217.53 0411.56 0816.02 02392.42 06998.60
139.76 0245.21 0316.56 0901.07 02660.91 07674.85
"Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection point changes here are in the latest daily post above.
07/03/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 79, MinTrSz: 40, MaxTrSz: 20000, Vol: 170476, AvTrSz: 2158
Min. Pr: 0.1400, Max Pr: 0.1499, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1430
# Buys, Shares: 62 57740, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1458
# Sells, Shares: 17 112736, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1415
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:1.95 (33.87% "buys"), DlyShts 13640 (08.00%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 12.10%
Note that of today's 79 trades 51, 64.56%, were for 100 shares, 47 of which traded at $0.1459, 2 at $0.1460 and 2 at $0.1499. There was also a small odd lot trade of 40 shares at $0.1459.
Further, as noted in a thread started by Iindelco here, the 374K offer (today 364K) we'd been seeing from CDEL and others was pulled, apparently after some early, 9:35  10:09, "fishing lures" resulted in a "normal" trade of 7K at $0.1449. My guess was this may have encouraged the big block seller to try and wait for a better price. The order was there at 10:09 and gone by 10:20.
Then the action got quite curious, as first noted in a thread started here. In summary, "normal" trading ended at 11:39 with roughly 1/7th (14.12%) of the trades being buys. We had dropped from a high of $0.1459 to $0.14 with no bottom in sight. That was twenty trades and VWAP was $0.1421.
From 11:40 through the close, 48 of 59 trades were buys for 100 shares, 44 at $0.1459, followed by 2 $0.1460 and then 2 at $0.1499. Interspersed with these trades were a few at larger sizes and different prices (buy 1,500 @ $0.1459, sell 3K @ $0.1401, ...), leading up to a series of "normal" sized trades dominating in the last 15 minutes. During this 15minute period, 35,036 shares, 20.55% of day's volume, traded at a VWAP of $0.1458, substantially above what had been seen prior to that period.
At EOD we ended with roughly 1/3rd (33.87%) buys. VWAP went from $0.1421 at 11:39 to $0.1430 at EOD. The last three trades of the day were for 100, 500 and 100 shares, all buys at $0.1499.
WARNING: TFH at play. I'm suspecting that the owner of the big block to be sold is a good enough customer that his broker, who probably has a marketmaking arm, is chipping in to move the market up to get a better price for those shares.
Yesterday I said I believed the shareholder approval of the reversesplit had affected the market and I was thinking it will be three more trading days before it might be safe to assess ongoing behavior again.
I now believe that to not be the case. I believe the action we are seeing is related to the TFH theory. Recall many months back I noted the MMs had moved the market where they wanted it to be and we would see some ... I forget what but I remember it happened.
Our "outliers" were already mentioned above  the three buys at the close at $0.1499 totaling 700 shares. The next lower price was a single 2K buy at $0.1475 and then the $0.1460/$0.1459 buys, which had some volume.
Yesterday I noted something was changing here. Today seems to confirm that. It looks to me like "they" are trying to move the market above $0.15, at which time I expect selling to come back in.
Yesterday the buy percentage jumped big to 72.6% from the prior 22.8% and 15.3%. Today it dropped back to a more normal range, 33.9%, regardless of the apparent attempt to manipulate the market, IMO.
Recent VWAPs oldest through today: $0.1504, $0.1513, $0.1515, $0.1506 ($0.1502 if those "outliers" are excluded), $0.1478, $0.1411, $0.1447 and $0.1430. 5, 10 and 25day VWAP averages, are all still descending. Today they are $0.1454, $0.1484 and $0.1537 respectively. We know have the 50day average VWAP dropping for the second consecutive day. Today it is $0.1529, down from $0.1531 and then $0.1530.
On the following keep in mind the odd trading described above.
The larger trades (>= 15K) occurred on 3 of the 79 trades, 3.80%. These 52,900 shares were 31.03% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1423. 1 of the larger trades, 33.33%, was a buy of 20,000 shares, 37.81% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1460. 2 of the larger trades, 66.67%, were sells of 32,900 shares, 62.19% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1400.
The other 76 trades, 96.20% of the day's trades, traded 117,576 shares, 68.97% of the days volume. The VWAP was $0.1433. 61 trades, 80.26%, were buys and accounted for 37740 shares, 32.10% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1457. 15 trades, 19.74%, were sells and accounted for 79836 shares, 67.90% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1422.
Yesterday the oscillators I watch continued acting as they did the prior day  all have small ticks up again except today MFI weakened slightly and ADX related was flat. Low volume continues to call these indicators into question.
The price action continues pushing the lower Bollinger limit down today.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 1.20%, 0.67%, 1.15%, 133.36% and 64.04% respectively. Price spread today was 7.07% vs. 5.08%, 14.29%, 7.78% vs. 1.67%, 6.60%, 6.67%, 1.93%, 2.80% and 2.32% on prior days.
Note that if the "outlier" high and the next lower price are removed and we use $0.1460 as the high, the high movement becomes 1.95% and the spread becomes 4.29%.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes.
09:3510:42: 020200 shrs, 11.85% of vol, VWAP $0.1454, 087.6% buys
10:4410:57: 042100 shrs, 24.70% of vol, VWAP $0.1438, 000.2% buys
10:5911:39: 063800 shrs, 37.42% of vol, VWAP $0.1400, 000.0% buys
11:4011:52: 001900 shrs, 01.11% of vol, VWAP $0.1459, 100.0% buys
11:5311:53: 001500 shrs, 00.88% of vol, VWAP $0.1459, 100.0% buys
11:5412:15: 001400 shrs, 00.82% of vol, VWAP $0.1459, 100.0% buys
12:1512:15: 000400 shrs, 00.23% of vol, VWAP $0.1401, 000.0% buys
12:1612:21: 000240 shrs, 00.14% of vol, VWAP $0.1459, 100.0% buys
12:2712:27: 003000 shrs, 01.76% of vol, VWAP $0.1401, 000.0% buys
12:2812:39: 000900 shrs, 00.53% of vol, VWAP $0.1459, 100.0% buys
12:4612:46: 009100 shrs, 05.34% of vol, VWAP $0.1454, 100.0% buys
12:4712:50: 024200 shrs, 14.20% of vol, VWAP $0.1461, 100.0% buys
12:5112:51: 001036 shrs, 00.61% of vol, VWAP $0.1402, 000.0% buys
12:5312:53: 000700 shrs, 00.41% of vol, VWAP $0.1499, 100.0% buys
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary price range.
$0.1400$0.1402: 068236 shrs, 40.03% of vol, VWAP $0.1400, 000.0% buys
$0.1430$0.1430: 026000 shrs, 15.25% of vol, VWAP $0.1430, 000.0% buys
$0.1447$0.1450: 029740 shrs, 17.45% of vol, VWAP $0.1449, 037.8% buys
$0.1459$0.1459: 021600 shrs, 12.67% of vol, VWAP $0.1459, 100.0% buys
$0.1460$0.1475: 024200 shrs, 14.20% of vol, VWAP $0.1461, 100.0% buys
$0.1499$0.1499: 000700 shrs, 00.41% of vol, VWAP $0.1499, 100.0% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
06/18 $0.1535 +01.18% 54.3%
06/19 $0.1539 +00.25% 66.4%
06/20 $0.1530 00.59% 20.8%
06/23 $0.1506 01.56% 02.8%
06/24 $0.1504 00.13% 13.3%
06/25 $0.1513 +00.62% 19.5%
06/26 $0.1515 +00.11% 28.8%
06/27 $0.1506 00.63% 29.0%
06/30 $0.1478 01.84% 15.3%
07/01 $0.1411 04.54% 22.8%
07/02 $0.1447 +02.53% 72.6%
07/03 $0.1430 01.15% 33.9%
Regarding my newer inflection point calculations, I said yesterday "... I'd think lowvolume induced noise again but there's something different in the trading. Lateday strength with relatively high price and buy percentage. It makes me think someone is playing the reversesplit scenario. We'll have to wait and see". Recalling the odd trading described above, I think it's the TFH scenario of the market being moved so that selling above $0.15 can be done. This seems somewhat supported by the fact that five of the six periods weakened today, meaning that regardless of the apparent improvements there seems little strength.
_5day_ 10day_ _25day_ _50day_ _100day_ _200day_
048.26 0054.14 0187.48 0700.28 02083.74 06492.57
065.39 0114.95 0173.16 0757.12 02266.15 06822.91
078.66 0148.10 0223.43 0692.98 02191.02 06716.74
091.97 0140.87 0228.39 0667.19 02113.59 06461.46
104.97 0139.46 0223.90 0589.67 02102.07 06296.39
098.54 0146.79 0210.95 0611.03 02107.24 06343.32
143.86 0210.39 0330.08 0757.17 02422.62 06919.24
799.65 1307.74 2390.47 4575.59 15963.38 52336.74
104.10 0199.41 0403.23 0787.15 02393.96 06938.51
108.62 0217.53 0411.56 0816.02 02392.42 06998.60
"Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection point changes here are in the latest daily post above.
07/02/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 13, MinTrSz: 552, MaxTrSz: 14000, Vol: 73052, AvTrSz: 5619
Min. Pr: 0.1417, Max Pr: 0.1489, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1447
# Buys, Shares: 10 53052, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1457
# Sells, Shares: 3 20000, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1420
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 2.65:1 (72.62% "buys"), DlyShts 37929 (51.92%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 189.65%
The shareholder approval of the reversesplit and reduction in authorized shares was announced today. I believe it has affected the market. I'm thinking it will be three more trading days before it might be safe to assess ongoing behavior again. Just add these last two thoughts to the end of each paragraph below wherein I note a change in behavior. Add in the very low volume as another factor to reduce the level of confidence in any possible conclusions.
We had potential "outliers" today but each accounted for 15.86% of the day's volume so it's hard to view them as such. The low was set by a single 10K sell at 10:57, the first trade of the day, for $0.1417. The next higher priced trades were at $0.1422, 10K of sells. All further higherpriced trades, starting at $0.1449, were buys. The high of the day was established by buys of 1,071 and 8,929 shares at $0.1489. I think these were really one trade in two pieces because of the 10K total and price.
It looks like the sellers aren't in, suggested by a sell percentage of only ~27.4%, and VWAP up another 2.53%, no big offer of 374K at $0.145 from CDEL, and the very low volume.
Yesterday I noted the $0.14 price barely held as several times the best bid was below that  $0.1351, $0.136, $0.1361 and $0.1362  at various points during the day and when bids did come back to the $0.14 area, they never got above $0.143 and spent most of the day in the $0.14 to $0.1406 range. Significantly I noted "In fact, other than the $0.16 buy, no buy occurred above a price of $0.1406. All higherpriced trades below the $0.16 trade were sells".
I said I see no future in the $0.14 price range.
Today's action provides a big variance from that prior behavior and I think I might have to ... revise my thinking? Become cautious? Something is changing here. Did the CDEL 374K seller decide to hold or decide to sell in smaller chunks to avoid moving the market lower? I don't know. I only know this does not reflect the behavior we've been seeing. I suspect the announcement of the approval of the reversesplit and reduction in authorized shares today has affected the market.
The buy percentage jumped big to 72.6% from the prior 22.8% and 15.3%. We'll have to see if this is a trend change, likely due to the reversesplit announcement.
Recent VWAPs oldest through today: $0.1506, $0.1504, $0.1513, $0.1515, $0.1506 ($0.1502 if those "outliers" are excluded), $0.1478, $0.1411 and $0.1447. 5, 10 and 25day VWAP averages, are all still descending. Today they are $0.1471, $0.1495 and $0.1550 respectively.
There were no larger trades today.
Yesterday I noted "Today all the oscillators I watch were "fooled" by that single $0.16 buy. Every one had a minimal up tick. It might be enough to get some traditional TA types to bite and think things are moving up. But the numbers say otherwise". Well, today may suggest they did bite (but note the possible reversesplit announcement's effects) and the oscillators I watch continue acting as they did yesterday  all have small ticks up again. Be wary though  low volume calls these indicators into question.
The price action continues pushing the lower Bollinger limit down today. Current range is $0.1419  $0.1618 vs. $0.1420  $0.1637 and $0.1438  $0.1640 on prior days.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 1.21%, 6.94%, 2.53%, 77.59% and 57.80% respectively. Price spread today was 5.08% vs. 14.29%, 7.78% vs. 1.67%, 6.60%, 6.67%, 1.93%, 2.80%, 2.32% and 1.64% on prior days.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes, interesting only due to the sparseness of trading and relatively large divergence of VWAP in the periods. Note also the difference in buy percentages.
10:5712:06: 021071 shrs, 28.84% of vol, VWAP $0.1423, 005.1% buys
12:2415:59: 051981 shrs, 71.16% of vol, VWAP $0.1456, 100.0% buys
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary price range, although it's utility may be marginal with the low volume. Note the buy percentages.
$0.1417$0.1422: 020000 shrs, 27.38% of vol, VWAP $0.1420, 000.0% buys
$0.1449$0.1450: 043052 shrs, 58.93% of vol, VWAP $0.1449, 100.0% buys
$0.1489$0.1489: 010000 shrs, 13.69% of vol, VWAP $0.1489, 100.0% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
06/17 $0.1517 01.47% 21.4%
06/18 $0.1535 +01.18% 54.3%
06/19 $0.1539 +00.25% 66.4%
06/20 $0.1530 00.59% 20.8%
06/23 $0.1506 01.56% 02.8%
06/24 $0.1504 00.13% 13.3%
06/25 $0.1513 +00.62% 19.5%
06/26 $0.1515 +00.11% 28.8%
06/27 $0.1506 00.63% 29.0%
06/30 $0.1478 01.84% 15.3%
07/01 $0.1411 04.54% 22.8%
07/02 $0.1447 +02.53% 72.6%
Regarding my newer inflection point calculations, I said yesterday "... but the large drop in all periods seems way beyond noise. I believe these readings are suggesting that $0.14 will soon be but a fond memory". Well, it's only one day, but the volume tanked and we're back to all periods improved. I'd think lowvolume induced noise again but there's something different in the trading. Lateday strength with relatively high price and buy percentage. It makes me think someone is playing the reversesplit scenario. We'll have to wait and see.
_5day_ 10day_ _25day_ _50day_ _100day_ _200day_
034.40 0038.82 0141.96 0753.12 02087.62 06380.34
048.26 0054.14 0187.48 0700.28 02083.74 06492.57
065.39 0114.95 0173.16 0757.12 02266.15 06822.91
078.66 0148.10 0223.43 0692.98 02191.02 06716.74
091.97 0140.87 0228.39 0667.19 02113.59 06461.46
104.97 0139.46 0223.90 0589.67 02102.07 06296.39
098.54 0146.79 0210.95 0611.03 02107.24 06343.32
143.86 0210.39 0330.08 0757.17 02422.62 06919.24
799.65 1307.74 2390.47 4575.59 15963.38 52336.74
104.10 0199.41 0403.23 0787.15 02393.96 06938.51
"Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection point changes here are in the latest daily post above.
07/01/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 33, MinTrSz: 99, MaxTrSz: 50000, Vol: 326007, AvTrSz: 9879
Min. Pr: 0.1400, Max Pr: 0.1600, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1411
# Buys, Shares: 15 74478, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1409
# Sells, Shares: 18 251529, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1411
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:3.38 (22.85% "buys"), DlyShts 89879 (27.57%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 35.73%
No sign of anything but continued downward pressure today.
We had an "outlier" today. The high of the day was a single 2.5K buy at 09:30:11, the third trade of the session, for $0.1600. The next lowest price came on two sells at 9:32:53 of 5K and 6K for $0.1450. They were "in range" of three sells with some volume, ~48.6K, for $0.1430 that occurred from 15:32 to 15:35. So it would be reasonable to look at $0.1450 as a reasonable high if one discounts the $0.16 trade.
As with the recent weeks, it still looks like the sellers are in, suggested by a sell percentage of ~77.2% and VWAP down another 4.54%. ETRF had an offer of 374K at $0.145 entered by 09:32 today. It stayed all day long.
The $0.14 price barely held today as several times the best bid was below that  $0.1351, $0.136, $0.1361 and $0.1362  at various points during the day. When bids did come back to the $0.14 area, they never got above $0.143 and spent most of the day in the $0.14 to $0.1406 range. Buyers were not jumping up and down to catch the $0.1439 offer that was predominate from 11:44 through 15:43. In fact, other than the $0.16 buy, no buy occurred above a price of $0.1406. All higherpriced trades below the $0.16 trade were sells.
With this behavior, I see no future in the $0.14 price range.
The larger trades (>= 15K) occurred on 8 of the 33 trades, 24.24%. These 212,900 shares were 65.31% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1407. 1 of the larger trades, 12.50%, was a buy of 25,000 shares, 11.74% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1406. 7 of the larger trades, 87.50%, were sells of 187,900 shares, 88.26% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1407.
The other 25 trades, 75.76% of the day's trades, traded 113,107 shares, 34.69% of the days volume. The VWAP was $0.1418. 14 trades, 56.00%, were buys and accounted for 49,478 shares, 43.74% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1410. 11 trades, 44.00%, were sells and accounted for 63,629 shares, 56.26% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1424.
The buy percentage improved from yesterday's 15.3% to 22.8% today, but that's still anemic. The 10, 25, 50 and 100day buy percentage averages are not looking pretty, being 27.31%, 34.40%, 38.96% and 41.00% respectively. All are falling, although the 10day is trying to flatten. If things go how I believe they will, it may make it. After all, ~27% is not a big challenge to maintain.
Recent VWAPs oldest through today: $0.1530, $0.1506, $0.1504, $0.1513, $0.1515, $0.1506 ($0.1502 if those "outliers" are excluded), $0.1478 and $0.1411. 5, 10 and 25day VWAP averages, are all still descending. Today they are $0.1485, $0.1504 and $0.1562 respectively.
Today all the oscillators I watch were "fooled" by that single $0.16 buy. Every one had a minimal up tick. It might be enough to get some traditional TA types to bite and think things are moving up. But the numbers say otherwise.
The price action continues pushing the lower Bollinger limit down today. Current range is $0.1420 to $0.1637 vs. yesterday's $0.1438  $0.1640.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 0.07%, 5.96%, 4.54%, 51.74% and 12.46% respectively. Price spread today was 14.29% vs. 7.78% vs. 1.67%, 6.60%, 6.67%, 1.93%, 2.80%, 2.32%, 1.64% and 1.91% on prior days.
If we exclude the $0.16 "outlier" mentioned above the day's high becomes $0.1450 and movements of the high becomes 3.97%. The day's spread becomes 3.57%.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes.
09:3009:32: 025750 shrs, 07.90% of vol, VWAP $0.1450, 009.7% buys
10:0710:07: 050000 shrs, 15.34% of vol, VWAP $0.1409, 000.0% buys
10:1010:32: 121800 shrs, 37.36% of vol, VWAP $0.1401, 003.1% buys
11:2011:43: 043079 shrs, 13.21% of vol, VWAP $0.1400, 100.0% buys
13:3313:33: 001200 shrs, 00.37% of vol, VWAP $0.1406, 000.0% buys
15:3215:35: 048579 shrs, 14.90% of vol, VWAP $0.1430, 000.0% buys
15:4115:58: 035599 shrs, 10.92% of vol, VWAP $0.1406, 070.5% buys
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary price range, although it's utility may be marginal with the low volume.
$0.1400$0.1400: 136879 shrs, 41.99% of vol, VWAP $0.1400, 034.2% buys
$0.1401$0.1406: 080999 shrs, 24.85% of vol, VWAP $0.1405, 031.0% buys
$0.1410$0.1420: 046050 shrs, 14.13% of vol, VWAP $0.1414, 000.0% buys
$0.1430$0.1430: 048579 shrs, 14.90% of vol, VWAP $0.1430, 000.0% buys
$0.1450$0.1450: 011000 shrs, 03.37% of vol, VWAP $0.1450, 000.0% buys
$0.1600$0.1600: 002500 shrs, 00.77% of vol, VWAP $0.1600, 100.0% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
06/16 $0.1540 01.31% 04.4%
06/17 $0.1517 01.47% 21.4%
06/18 $0.1535 +01.18% 54.3%
06/19 $0.1539 +00.25% 66.4%
06/20 $0.1530 00.59% 20.8%
06/23 $0.1506 01.56% 02.8%
06/24 $0.1504 00.13% 13.3%
06/25 $0.1513 +00.62% 19.5%
06/26 $0.1515 +00.11% 28.8%
06/27 $0.1506 00.63% 29.0%
06/30 $0.1478 01.84% 15.3%
07/01 $0.1411 04.54% 22.8%
Regarding my newer inflection point calculations, I said yesterday "... we now see all 6 periods weaker. I do think this is the trend now, but I expect tomorrow will have lower volume and we could see noise again". We had lower volume, but the large drop in all periods seems way beyond noise. I believe these readings are suggesting that $0.14 will soon be but a fond memory.
_5day_ 10day_ _25day_ _50day_ _100day_ _200day_
316.72 0333.60 1213.34 5732.46 17038.80 53507.42
034.40 0038.82 0141.96 0753.12 02087.62 06380.34
048.26 0054.14 0187.48 0700.28 02083.74 06492.57
065.39 0114.95 0173.16 0757.12 02266.15 06822.91
078.66 0148.10 0223.43 0692.98 02191.02 06716.74
091.97 0140.87 0228.39 0667.19 02113.59 06461.46
104.97 0139.46 0223.90 0589.67 02102.07 06296.39
098.54 0146.79 0210.95 0611.03 02107.24 06343.32
143.86 0210.39 0330.08 0757.17 02422.62 06919.24
799.65 1307.74 2390.47 4575.59 15963.38 52336.74
"Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection point changes here are in the latest daily post above.
Disclosure: The author is long AXPW.
Additional disclosure: I am very experimental and sometimes do my TA in nontraditional fashions. Keep this in mind when considering anything I post and be sure and consult other sources and do your due diligence. I'm barely responsible for myself and certainly not responsible for anyone else or their actions. :)