H. T. Love's  Instablog

I've not had anything interesting to put in this header for a while and now I have two items of interest.

The first is a comment that an Axionista requested be posted anonymously that detailed that person's difficulty in buying shares. Rather than repeat it here, follow this link to the comment describing the difficulty of acquiring 300K shares of (AXPW). In summary, a late day buy order above market was only a little over half filled the first day and took close to an hour to complete filling the next morning.

This comment was particularly interesting to me because I had been posting for some number of days prior that the sellers were "too easy", constantly displaying a lack of discipline, which if corrected would result in better prices to the sellers. This was my judgment based on my close observation of intra-day bid, ask and trade behavior for more than 16 months now.

Whether it was coincidence, the anonymous comment, my cajoling about lack of discipline, or a combination of those, there was an immediate appearance of change in bid, ask and price behavior on 5/31. See the 5/31 daily commentary contained in the "Beginning 5/1 ..." instablog linked down in the "boilerplate" below.

The other thing of note is the change in daily short sales. My feeling is that we can't see any real sustained price appreciation without "normal" market-making activity and the volume (liquidity) that should accompany it. When we have those, we have the possibility of sustained trends, both up and down, giving us the "waves" necessary for traders and investors to have confidence in the risk/reward profiles, permitting them to enter the market with the hope of doing well.

For some time we did not have "normal" market-making, as detailed when John Petersen posted back in January about a big drop in the daily short sales starting back in November of '12. Interestingly, this was about the same time we all thought the "big uglies" were exhausted and I also posted that I thought we might be starting a move up. Go figure!

I mention the following as a possible counter-point to my thoughts that without "normal" market-maker activity we can't get much price appreciation. OTOH, what we got may certainly not qualify as "appreciable", being we only got to $0.3710 VWAP (1/14/13) from $0.2352 VWAP on 11/2. A nice percentage rise, certainly, but not a "big" move in absolute terms.

In my 11/27 post in AXPW: Intra-Day Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting 11/14/2012 I said "Looking at my experimental inflection point calculations gives me a warm fuzzy feeling. The trend suggested beginning around the 12th is apparently coming to fruition and gaining strength. Let's hope it's not just another few-days "blip" up followed by a retreat. I think not because the move has been long and strong enough to move all, including the newly added 200-day calculation, into an upward attitude". In the 11/13 entry in AXPW: Intra-Day Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting's I said "If my original inflection point calculations, and my interpretation of them, are valid we have a move up beginning. All the "correct" conditions exist: ...".

These examples may demonstrate that "normal" market-maker participation is not needed. Regardless, another change has appeared ...

Beginning 4/22/2013, with the appearance in our market of some active market-makers we'd not seen for quite a long time, the daily short sales began making a trend up towards the previously-seen levels, as I suggested would eventually happen. As of this writing (6/22013), the 10, 25, 50 and 100-day average daily short percentages are 34.31%, 25.43%, 16.66% and 12.97%, respectively, and all are rising. Now this is not for ego-gratification, but rather because I'm always more comfortable when things behave as expected because it suggests that I have, indeed, managed to learn something during this long trek from complete ignorance. It will, combined with other things, give me the confidence to stick my neck out more frequently and, as well, get decapitated more frequently! :-((

Regardless of the validity of daily short sales supporting John's thesis that the "big uglies" are out, his thesis is, IMO, valid and supported by AXPW Fails-to-deliver Charts 2/11/2013, with data through the 4/30/2013 period. The updated data is made available about every two weeks and I update my instablog's charts shortly after each update becomes available.

What follows is my normal boilerplate and the long-time readers can skip on down to the charts.

I've been manually collecting this data for a year now while volume was low and it was therefore reasonable to do so. I'll stop when it gets too arduous unless I can craft a mechanized capture of most of the stuff.

I've captured enough data now that I can reasonably expect to be able to detect patterns on the charts that may signal, somewhat reliably, when price moves are about to occur. To help more easily identify any useful patterns, I've made an instablog, Axion Power International (AXPW) 2/13/2012 And Forward One Year Experimental Charts Snapshots. I've also added some lines to them that may assist in this. For anybody with an interest, I welcome any suggestions and/or help.

I'll update this instablog daily as long as I can for anybody that might find it useful. The charts will stay near the top and the text updates detailing daily data and expressing my most recent thoughts will follow after the charts.

I've arranged the chart segments in this instablog to put what I think are related stuff close together.

This is the tenth installment of the original "AXPW: Some Intra-Day Trade Charting" instablogs I've started doing on Seeking Alpha. The others grew, as I added daily commentary and FINRA data, to the point I was afraid the load time might become an irritant for folks that have less internet bandwidth or older computing equipment so I've started rolling to a new one aperiodically.

Versions subsequent to the original (latest to oldest) can be found here.

AXPW: Intra-Day Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting Beginning 5/1/2013

AXPW: Intra-Day Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting 3/1/2013

AXPW: Intra-Day Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting 02/01/2013

AXPW: Intra-Day Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting 12/15/2012

AXPW: Intra-Day Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting 11/14/2012

AXPW: Intra-Day Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting

AXPW: Intra-Day Trade Charting 9/6/2012 - Xx/xx/2012

AXPW: Intra-Day Trade Charting 7/7/2012 - 9/5/2012

In the below chart note that the volume is inverted to enhance readability! Be aware when you view it!

(right-click and open in new tab, position cursor over image to be able to zoom and scroll)

The following are modified inflection point calculations bracketing a price chart for comparison. Note that the false bullish moves and contrary moves of the 5-day has been eliminated.

The two inflection points are calculated differently from each other and differently from the original above. More work to do, this is a start, hopefully.

I've identified some changes I want to try on the new inflection point calculations but haven't had time to implement them yet. I'll work them in over time after a little experimentation.

Comments and further suggestions welcome.

(right-click and open in new tab, position cursor over image to be able to zoom and scroll)

Continuing tracking the "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection point calculations values are now only in the latest daily comment - attempting to keep things shorter for faster loading.

06/18/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 39, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 25000, Vol 189360, AvTrSz: 4855
Min. Pr: 0.1920, Max Pr: 0.2000, VW Avg. Tr. Pr:0.1963
# Buys, Shares: 13 52417, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1984
# Sells, Shares: 17 113600, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1958
# Unkn, Shares: 9 23343, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.1939
Buy:Sell 1:2.17 (27.7% "buys"), DlyShts 65840 (34.77%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 57.96%
6/18: 85% x avg. of 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs, $0.2266, in 40 days: $0.1926

A 2K AH trade is not included in the FINRA-reported volumes. Adding this to the days volume moves the volume from 187,360 to 189,360 and the short percentage from 35.14% to 34.77%. If the 2K is also added to daily short sales, the short volume moves from 65,840 to 67,840 and short percentage to 35.83%.

There's not much I want to say today - things are pretty-much status quo except for a narrowing price spread. Buy percentage continues to fall but is not yet in the exceptionally low range. If the trend doesn't reverse soon it will be exceptionally low. I suspect a couple possibilities account for what we are seeing ATM. One, of course, is that folks are looking at something similar to the 85% line above and are trying to bail with as little damage as possible because they have no faith that the news that is needed to support share price will appear in a timely fashion.

Another, and maybe more likely scenario(?), is that some portion of the "financiers" are acting even worse than the last round of them acted. This round has a no-lose situation for them whether price goes up, down or sideways. With the more active crop of market-makers, that generally were not present or very active prior to the financing nearing, now seen frequently at the top of the offers stack I suspect they are servicing the "financiers". Only occasionally have we seen much price discipline and patience from them. The one that seems most prominent near the top of the ask stack is ARCA, a major exchange.

The one-day changes in my original experimental inflection points are "flattish", with only two showing increasing weakness. This is more an effect of values falling off the tail of the measuring periods rather than any near-term change in behavior. The change over five days has only one weakening. The average change over five days is also "flattish", having only two showing rate of weakening increasing, likely from the same tail effects mentioned above.

My newer version has only one of the periods showing a one-day increase in weakening. This difference is due to consideration of some additional factors reducing the tail effect somewhat. Overall the one-day changes are also "flattish". The change over five days has all periods strengthening. With the "mini-pop" we had in buy percentage and the other factors a few days ago, this is not surprising and should not be given a lot of weight ATM. The average rate of change over the five days is exactly the same and should be discounted for the same reason. We are to evaluate these on their trends, not a single change.

Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points omitted from the concentrator.

Rolling 5-day inflection point calculation aggregate percentage change (now abbreviated):
******* ******* *5 Day** *10 Day * * 25Day ** 50 Day **100Day* 200 Day
05/17 5 Day +0635.15 -0060.22 -0149.43 -0363.86 +0551.62 -0683.41
05/20 5 Day +0186.62 +0175.45 +0214.61 -0048.37 +0436.13 -0299.99
05/21 5 Day +0026.67 +0024.11 +0345.09 +0280.36 +0108.11 -0035.73
05/22 5 Day +0522.23 -0119.68 +0498.34 +0394.82 +0440.72 +0139.62
05/24 5 Day +0533.04 -0083.61 +1015.45 +0461.86 -0007.61 +0492.82
05/28 5 Day +0435.95 +0249.33 +1009.78 +0678.09 -0193.42 +0590.96
05/29 5 Day +0429.97 +0456.64 +1036.89 +0907.83 +0061.88 +0629.91
05/30 5 Day +0185.05 +0707.28 +0736.83 +0874.32 -0282.25 +0420.90
05/31 5 Day +0037.79 +0815.38 +0569.09 +0833.03 -0629.11 +0391.59
06/03 5 Day +0168.26 +0701.30 +0268.47 +0722.68 -0669.75 +0550.03
06/04 5 Day -0216.81 +0219.14 +0404.89 +0226.40 -0649.62 +0655.92
06/05 5 Day +0605.94 -0175.97 +0081.01 +0042.50 -1068.63 -0017.76
06/06 5 Day -0211.85 -0026.80 +0558.98 +0153.33 -1105.31 -0108.64
06/07 5 Day -0238.20 -0200.40 +0496.68 +0175.57 -0917.68 -0920.64
06/10 5 Day +1000.15 +0831.89 -0340.58 -0516.06 -0766.54 -1876.47
06/11 5 Day +0968.71 +1185.52 +0925.02 -0340.03 -1688.83 -2473.15
06/12 5 Day -0841.12 +1447.06 -0992.98 -0525.75 -1661.85 -2736.57
06/13 5 Day +1251.46 +1463.30 +1397.93 -0638.96 -1236.80 -2763.16
06/14 5 Day -0833.24 +1270.91 +1358.89 -0332.82 -0936.07 -2102.02
06/17 5 Day +0125.70 -0874.45 -0789.80 +0288.51 -1241.64 -1534.94
06/18 5 Day +0487.48 -0481.24 -0448.72 +0260.20 -0110.58 -1216.07

Average % change/day, 5 days
____ **5 Day *10 Day *25 Day *50 Day 100 Day 200 Day
05/13 -070.00 -075.38 +024.79 -005.90 +060.88 +010.00
05/14 -047.09 -070.50 +009.81 -076.96 +033.60 +076.05
05/15 -012.71 -121.58 -110.18 -164.76 -079.76 -193.34
05/16 +016.10 -147.51 -224.16 -190.70 -076.45 -194.27
05/17 +012.05 -048.81 -245.55 -138.10 -007.45 -181.73
05/20 +035.09 -039.38 -098.86 -043.06 -067.33 -039.48
05/21 +005.85 -041.24 -034.24 +097.51 -136.14 +019.08
05/22 -023.94 -036.64 +058.06 +170.02 +016.05 +187.60
05/24 -016.72 -008.38 +229.27 +161.44 -115.55 +231.54
05/28 +049.87 +014.78 +159.03 +145.29 -125.91 +178.19
05/29 +080.66 +086.51 +138.36 +125.49 -009.25 +133.13
05/30 -067.44 +165.39 +047.70 +095.90 -144.59 +056.26
05/31 -147.96 +188.23 -052.09 +056.32 -169.81 -024.64
06/03 -072.96 +156.98 -149.39 +052.16 -132.43 +011.44
06/04 -130.55 -006.04 -120.98 -090.34 -091.24 +012.99
06/05 +035.19 -126.52 -191.18 -173.07 -226.10 -129.53
06/06 -079.38 -146.82 -035.57 -144.20 -164.61 -105.91
06/07 -055.20 -203.16 -014.48 -131.49 -057.72 -262.45
06/10 +166.38 +026.12 -121.81 -247.75 -019.36 -485.30
06/11 +237.10 +193.27 +104.03 -113.29 -207.84 -625.81
06/12 -289.41 +324.61 -214.80 -113.65 -118.64 -543.76
06/13 +292.66 +298.02 +167.79 -158.46 -026.30 -530.90
06/14 -254.18 +334.16 +212.34 -061.78 +036.22 -196.38
06/17 -174.89 -341.27 -089.84 +160.91 -095.02 +068.31
06/18 -096.25 -333.35 -274.75 +120.05 +315.65 +251.41

I encourage those with an interest to look at the charts and notice the prior patterns similar to the current one and the resulting price activity.

Dly Sht % of 'sells' values JIC it turns out to be useful...
Wed., 8/01: 2.37% 46.91% 0.00%
Mon., 8/06: 19.99% 33.11% 3.34% 73.89% 33.88%
Mon., 8/13: 25.13% 3.06% 71.64% 50.47% 393.87%
Mon., 8/20: 129.14% 155.71% 899.39% 137.13% 209.19%
Mon., 8/27: 34.71% 61.1% 107.48% 24.28% 104.22%
Tue., 9/4 148.07% 28.40% 16.32% 3.01%
Mon. 9/10: 23.65% 50.20% 26.05% 252.39% 185.99%
Mon. 9/17: 32.74% 12.62% 12.85% 42.25% 42.89%
Mon. 9/24: 5.08% 50.67% 89.56% 9.24% 44.74%
Mon. 10/1: 74.24% 67.10% 517.63% 102.93%
Mon. 10/8: 28.10% 27.40% 11.45% 27.48% 25.32%
Mon. 10/15: 44.06% 17.09% 71.49% 40.64% 139.27%
Mon. 10/22: 194.20% 19.54% 25.53% 15.21% 15.17%
Wed. 10/31: 62.24% 149.46% 39.90%
Mon. 11/05: 30.92% 7.61% 6.98% 3.53% 10.10%
Mon. 11/12: 4.01% 116.57% 30.19% 16.71% 39.58%
Mon. 11/19: 14.90% 3.88% 259.67% T'gvg Day 8.97% (1/2 day)
Mon. 11/26: 65.57% 142.31% 59.83% 11.20% 69.26%
Mon. 12/03: 29.97% 13.19% 10.55% 15.57% 40.42%
Mon. 12/10: 3.59% 9.24% 135.35% 6.19% 12.73%
Mon. 12/17: 26.17% 8.82% 44.97% 3.63% 15.11%
Mon. 12/24: 258.33% 92.71% 31.98% 1.54%
Mon. 12/31: 14.36% H'lday 262.58% 6.39% 131.03%
Mon. 01/07: 45.09% 77.18% 52.53% 36.35% 52.72%
Mon. 01/14: 27.99% 0.70% 48.48% 11.09% 11.21%
Tues. 01/22: 00.26% 23.79% 12.89% 8.36%
Mon. 01/28: 69.26% 42.03% 7.96% 0.00% 28.33%
Mon. 02/04: 17.36% 28.73% 18.53% 12.68% 39.65%
Mon. 02/11: 25.67% 5.99% 16.57% 17.04% 8.23%
Tues. 02/19: 19.57% 19.88% 10.17% 30.54%
Mon. 02/25: 2.88% 55.65% 28.57% 6.95% 0.28%
Mon. 03/04: 100.79% 18.46% 11.55% 21.97% 3.61%
Mon. 03/11: 25.81% 9.64% 1.35% 13.40% 0.00%
Mon. 03/18: 7.10% 5.65% 9.26% 25.15% 9.02%
Mon. 03/25: 1.47% 14.69% 4.15% 25.64%
Mon. 04/01: 4.74% 11.82% 19.85% 3.42% 0.59%
Mon. 04/08: 8.01% 9.51% 13.54% 0.00% 6.62%
Mon. 04/15: 2.68% 8.94% 5.64% 1.67% 18.45%
Mon. 04/22: 0.42% 4.90% 690.95% 39.86% 22.22%
Mon. 04/29: 5.98% 14.04% 17.33% 13.58% 150.50%
Mon. 05/06: 9.96% 9.15% 114.65% 53.10% 39.36%
Mon. 05/13: 33.94% 54.27% 29.90% 61.57% 104.44%
Mon. 05/20: 92.10% 132.60% 34.23% 55.97%
Tue. 05/28: 76.82% 109.81% 28.64% 150.02%
Mon. 06/03 62.23% 62.24% 44.26% 98.99% 27.30%
Mon. 06/10 26.26% 40.92% 28.42% 82.06% 81.55%
Mon. 06/17 49.37% 57.96%

Feb Avg: 54.68%, min: 0.35%, max: 200.89%
Mar Avg: 49.86%, min: 0.70%, max: 252.30%
Apr Avg: 31.50%, min: 0.00%, max: 74.35%
May Avg: 62.73%, min: 0.00%, max: 398.94%

Then the Mega-C shares entered market? Note the hefty change in both the averages and maximums.

Jun Avg: Avg: 183.48%, min: 5.05%, max: 1607.50%
Jul Avg: 176.07%, min: 7.75%, max: 1273.20%

Sometime in August I began stating that I thought the larger sellers might be getting exhausted.

Aug Avg: 113.91%, min: 0.00%, max: 899.39%
Sep Avg: 56.67%, min: 3.01%, max: 252.39%
Oct Avg: 85.05%, min: 11.45%, max: 565.73%
Nov Avg: 51.96%, min: 3.53%, max: 259.67%
Dec Avg: 38.72%, min: 1.54%, max: 258.33%

============ 2013 ===============
Jan Avg: 44.20%, min: 0.00%, max: 262.58%
Feb Avg: 20.90%, min: 2.88%, max: 55.65%
Mar Avg: 15.42%, min: 0.00%, max: 100.79%
Apr Avg: 40.63%, min: 0.00%, max: 690.95%
May Avg: 67.58%, min: 9.15%, max: 150.50%
Jun Avg: 55.13%, min: 26.26%, max: 98.99%

0618 Vol 0187360, Sht 0065840 35.14% LHC 0.1920 0.2000 0.1950 b:s 1:2.17[70]
0617 Vol 0436047, Sht 0141509 32.45% LHC 0.1951 0.2120 0.2000 b:s 1:1.92
0614 Vol 0742259, Sht 0310280 41.80% LHC 0.1970 0.2650 0.2010 b:s 1:1.06
0613 Vol 0433078, Sht 0158507 36.60% LHC 0.1902 0.2000 0.1970 b:s 1.18:1
0612 Vol 0532910, Sht 0107142 20.11% LHC 0.1900 0.2000 0.1997 b:s 1:3.12[69]
0611 Vol 1293346, Sht 0309200 23.91% LHC 0.1900 0.2180 0.2000 b:s 1:1.41[68]
0610 Vol 1314871, Sht 0246507 18.75% LHC 0.2100 0.2349 0.2120 b:s 1:2.45[67]
0607 Vol 0781176, Sht 0131800 16.87% LHC 0.2201 0.2500 0.2350 b:s 1:1.70
0606 Vol 0554985, Sht 0192595 34.70% LHC 0.2500 0.2639 0.2500 b:s 1.82:1
0605 Vol 0218283, Sht 0072968 33.43% LHC 0.2530 0.2601 0.2585 b:s 1:3.09
0604 Vol 0077889, Sht 0030500 39.16% LHC 0.2605 0.2719 0.2605 b:s 1:1.70
0603 Vol 0296541, Sht 0095000 32.04% LHC 0.2700 0.2775 0.2726 b:s 1:1.12[66]
0531 Vol 0180950, Sht 0098765 54.58% LHC 0.2611 0.2775 0.2775 b:s 1.38:1[65]
0530 Vol 0221542, Sht 0049700 22.43% LHC 0.2650 0.2739 0.2739 b:s 1:3.62
0529 Vol 0518608, Sht 0199204 38.41% LHC 0.2526 0.2750 0.2720 b:s 1.89:1[64]
0528 Vol 0538254, Sht 0132592 24.63% LHC 0.2540 0.2660 0.2600 b:s 2.23:1[63]
0524 Vol 0155897, Sht 0056184 36.04% LHC 0.2602 0.2690 0.2611 b:s 1:1.63[62]
0523 Vol 0109249, Sht 0033000 30.21% LHC 0.2550 0.2960 0.2690 b:s 2.89:1[61]
0522 Vol 0167469, Sht 0031100 18.57% LHC 0.2520 0.2650 0.2600 b:s 1:1.23
0521 Vol 0185758, Sht 0086259 46.44% LHC 0.2531 0.2640 0.2600 b:s 1.68:1
0520 Vol 0355550, Sht 0135850 38.21% LHC 0.2510 0.2615 0.2600 b:s 1.41:1
0517 Vol 0261558, Sht 0092700 35.44% LHC 0.2500 0.2640 0.2591 b:s 1.78:1
0516 Vol 0641735, Sht 0218208 34.00% LHC 0.2460 0.2690 0.2500 b:s 1:1.30
0515 Vol 0370415, Sht 0078250 21.12% LHC 0.2390 0.2500 0.2430 b:s 1:2.41
0514 Vol 0590688, Sht 0178460 30.21% LHC 0.2210 0.2510 0.2500 b:s 1:1.32
0513 Vol 0778100, Sht 0155500 19.98% LHC 0.2350 0.2500 0.2460 b:s 1:1.70
0510 Vol 0270484, Sht 0066455 24.57% LHC 0.2401 0.2500 0.2480 b:s 1:1.67
0509 Vol 0304708, Sht 0068700 22.55% LHC 0.2451 0.2592 0.2459 b:s 1.35:1
0508 Vol 1143057, Sht 0539744 47.22% LHC 0.2300 0.2650 0.2549 b:s 1.45:1
0507 Vol 0129978, Sht 0005424 04.17% LHC 0.2560 0.2625 0.2600 b:s 1.19:1
0506 Vol 0211234, Sht 0010924 05.17% LHC 0.2550 0.2698 0.2698 b:s 1:1.08
0503 Vol 0183500, Sht 0076000 41.42% LHC 0.2500 0.2598 0.2590 b:s 2.63:1
0502 Vol 0184550, Sht 0018850 10.21% LHC 0.2410 0.2600 0.2600 b:s 1:3.04
0501 Vol 0301628, Sht 0032500 10.77% LHC 0.2400 0.2795 0.2610 b:s 1:1.64
0430 Vol 0407902, Sht 0021880 05.36% LHC 0.2101 0.2549 0.2390 b:s 1.57:1
0429 Vol 1332379, Sht 0051500 03.87% LHC 0.2001 0.2440 0.2119 b:s 1:1.83
0426 Vol 0133648, Sht 0016000 11.97% LHC 0.2324 0.2499 0.2449 b:s 1:1.27
0425 Vol 0191550, Sht 0061000 31.85% LHC 0.2400 0.2500 0.2400 b:s 1:3.97
0424 Vol 0161622, Sht 0067022 41.47% LHC 0.2450 0.2500 0.2500 b:s 13.29:1
0423 Vol 0070533, Sht 0000833 01.18% LHC 0.2401 0.2500 0.2500 b:s 3.15:1
0422 Vol 0240850, Sht 0000550 00.23% LHC 0.2400 0.2559 0.2401 b:s 1:1.20
0419 Vol 0515507, Sht 0078791 15.28% LHC 0.2321 0.2603 0.2450 b:s 1:4.83
0418 Vol 0295580, Sht 0004500 01.20% LHC 0.2600 0.2625 0.2600 b:s 1:136.86
0417 Vol 0115060, Sht 0005275 04.58% LHC 0.2600 0.2750 0.2600 b:s 1:4.35
0416 Vol 0161636, Sht 0009600 05.94% LHC 0.2601 0.2700 0.2601 b:s 1:1.98
0415 Vol 0253015, Sht 0005800 02.29% LHC 0.2600 0.2629 0.2601 b:s 1:5.89
0412 Vol 0091300, Sht 0004500 04.93% LHC 0.2601 0.2739 0.2622 b:s 1:2.92
0411 Vol 0146890, Sht 0000000 00.00% LHC 0.2600 0.2629 0.2604 b:s 1:2.08[60]
0410 Vol 0106016, Sht 0010900 10.28% LHC 0.2605 0.2669 0.2639 b:s 1:3.15
0409 Vol 0217371, Sht 0012500 05.75% LHC 0.2611 0.2725 0.2650 b:s 1:1.53
0408 Vol 0196151, Sht 0011200 05.71% LHC 0.2600 0.2800 0.2600 b:s 1:2.48
0405 Vol 0360500, Sht 0001700 00.47% LHC 0.2600 0.2960 0.2648 b:s 1:4.04
0404 Vol 0446792, Sht 0011884 02.66% LHC 0.2602 0.2950 0.2855 b:s 1:3.52
0403 Vol 0100000, Sht 0010300 10.30% LHC 0.2600 0.2699 0.2675 b:s 1:1.08
0402 Vol 0262385, Sht 0024245 09.24% LHC 0.2550 0.2699 0.2650 b:s 1:3.58
0401 Vol 0323220, Sht 0014100 04.36% LHC 0.2600 0.2849 0.2800 b:s 1:11.63

[60] An AH 50K trade is not included in the FINRA data. Including that in the volume has no effect because reported short sales were zero. If we also include it in short sales, the short percentage moves to 25.39%. However, with the recent daily short sales so low, there's no reason to believe these were a short sale.[61] An AH trade of 5.1K is not included in the FINRA daily short sales. Including it in day's volume 28.86%, Including it as short volume as well yields 33.32% .
[61] An AH trade of 5.1K is not included in the FINRA daily short sales. Including it in day's volume 28.86%, Including it as short volume as well yields 33.32%.
[62] Second day in a row an AH trade below the close: manipulation suspected. See this comment.

The FINRA data does not include the AH trade of 6K. Adding this to the day's volume moves the short percentage from the FINRA-based 36.04% to 34.70%. If we also add it to short sales, the percentage moves to 38.41%.
[63] The FINRA data does not include an AH trade of 19.7K. Including it moves the FINRA-reported short percentage from 24.63% to 23.76%. If it's also added to short sales, the short volume moves to 152,292 and percentage moves to 27.29%.
[64] The FINRA data excludes a 10K AH trade. Including it in the day's volume would move daily short percentage from 38.41% to 37.68%. Including it also in the daily short volume would move volume from 199204 to 209,204 and percentage from 38.41% to 39.58%.
[65] The FINRA data excludes a 10K AH trade. Including it in the day's volume would move daily short percentage from 54.58% to 51.72%. Including it also in the daily short volume would move volume from 98765 to 108765 and percentage from 54.58% to 59.96%.
[66] The FINRA data excludes a 5K AH trade. Including it in the day's volume would move daily short percentage from 32.04% to 31.50%. Including it also in the daily short volume would move volume from 95K to 100K and percentage from 32.04% to 33.16%.
[67] Finra data excludes two AH trades, 10593 and 5K, totaling 15593, both at $0.21. Adding them to the volume moves the Finra-reported volume from 1314871 to 1330464, and the short percentage from the FINRA-based calculated 18.75% to 18.53%. If we also add it to the daily short sales, the short sales move to 262100 from the FINRA-reported 246507 and the short percentage moves to 19.70%.
[68] Three AH trades at $0.20 of 8K, 8K and 2.5K are not included in FINRA daily short sales. Including that volume moves FINRA-reported daily volume from 1,293,346 to 1,311,846 and short percentage from 23.91% to 23.57%. If we also include them in the daily short sales, daily shorts goes to 327,700 and short percentage moves to 24.98%.
[69] A very unusual trade before the open ($0.20x2.5K) and one after the close ($0.1935x2.5K) do not appear on the FINRA data. Adding these to Finra's total volume would move it from 532,910 to 537,910 and reduce the short percentage from 20.11% to 19.92%. If we also add it to the day short sales, short volume moves from 107,142 to 112,142 and short percentage moves to 20.85%.
[70] A 2K AH trade is not included in the FINRA-reported volumes. Adding this to the days volume move the volume from 187,360 to 189,360 and the short percentage from 35.14% to 34.77%. If the 2K is also added to daily short sales, the short volume moves from 65,840 to 67,840 and short percentage to 35.83%.

06/17/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 112, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 15000, Vol 436047, AvTrSz: 3893
Min. Pr: 0.1951, Max Pr: 0.2120, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1999
# Buys, Shares: 43 149396, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2026
# Sells, Shares: 69 286651, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1984
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:1.92 (34.3% "buys"), DlyShts 141509 (32.45%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 49.37%
06/17: 85% x avg. of 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs, $0.2292, in 40 days: $0.1948

Nothing remarkable today. Based on the 10 and 25-day average trade sizes, 4,251 and 4,390 it looks like our new retail range is, indeed moving a bit lower. Today it's at the lower part of mid-range I guess. The buy percentage is a bit lower than the longer-term averages, 42% and 39% for the 50 and 100-day averages respectively. But it's still in a normal range. Volume is above the 50 and 100-day averages, 385K and 293K, as the VWAP continues to deteriorate (yesterday was $0.2122).

One thing of note is that the fails to deliver data today shows what I expected and in subsequent comments in that thread I mention some possible causes. I'm leaning towards my TFH explanation as I can see no exceptional condition that would account for a "normal" delivery failure, as suggested in the SEC defense of these fails, to require a 10-day period to INCREMENTALLY close out the failed positions. For a fail with legitimate reasons, I think a single whack or two would've closed the fails. I'll have the related charts updated later. Note the paucity of fails-to-deliver that began to develop in the "Jan - Jun 2013" chart around 2/1/13. BTW, the charts are logarithmic.

Yesterday I said "If the VWAP improvement holds, I'll be surprised just on general principal. But the are some indications that it may hold". Not surprised yet in spite of the presence Friday of some things that said "maybe, just maybe". Oscillators remained oversold, ADX deteriorated, volume on our slip down today remained relatively high, suggesting we aren't bottomed out yet (if ever!), And our high, low and close were all lower along with the VWAP.

On my original inflection points, four of the six periods had weakening in the one-day change. Only the 5 and 50-day changes had improvement, with the 5-day showing substantial improvement while remaining a long way from positive. Changes over five days were split with the 5, 50 and 200-day improving whilst the rest weakened. The average rate of change over the five days supports what we see there.

My newer version had the pretty visual pattern somewhat ruined by today's weakness. Needless to say, the one-day change reflected today's behavior, with only the 5-day continuing to show improvement while the other five periods weakened. Five of the six periods showed improvement of five days, with only the 100-day showing a minimal weakening. The average rate of change over those five days shows improvement across the board. But we need to remember that all the current calculations are still well below zero and so I interpret these rate changes as only suggesting reducing rate of weakening, not increasing strength.

Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.

06/14/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 169, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 49800, Vol 742259, AvTrSz: 4392
Min. Pr: 0.1970, Max Pr: 0.2650, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2122
# Buys, Shares: 87 358787, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2160
# Sells, Shares: 80 380472, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2087
# Unkn, Shares: 2 3000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.2070
Buy:Sell 1:1.06 (48.3% "buys"),DlyShts 310280 (41.80%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 81.55%
85% x avg. of 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs, $0.2315, in 40 days: $0.1968

I've added a new line to my EOD summary. See the details of financing filing, "29. CERTAIN DEFINITIONS", item (k) "Company Conversion Price" on page 36, (ii) "Pre-Installment Conversion Price" detailed on page 43, and (xx) "VWAP" on page 45, all in the provided link, so that you can check my math. The VWAP determination may not match my calculations, although I would be surprised if it didn't.

Also keep in mind when you read the sections that these calculations can be overridden.

The following was not posted in the concentrator today.

The news of the order from ePower on Thursday apparently had a positive effect on the sentiment. Things moved so quickly this morning (Friday) that my minor lateness to the keyboard, which normally would not cause me to miss much, if any, action, put me way behind the curve. Early on it was a struggle to catch up. So ...

I wasn't able to track right from the open this morning, so when I did get to the keyboard and saw where prices were at, the first thought that crossed my mind is detailed in this comment. Essentially, I thought some bullish folks not worried about penny or two in price difference had put in "at the open" buy orders. Indelco corrected me, saying, in brief, it looked like bids chasing the ask up over time.

That prompted me, while writing this, to look at Time and Sales that shows bids, asks and trades. We see b/a of $0.193x5K/$0.197x15K at 9:30:00. By 9:30:42 ask was to $0.1998x10K and then $0.205 in the same second. Bid was unchanged as ask moved to $0.21x13.5K at 9:31:16. At 9:31:28 bid started stepping up to $0.205, by 9:35:29, while the ask retreated to $0.2099 during that period. With ask moving to $0.21 at 9:38:38, bid started moving from $0.205 to $0.2099 starting at 9:38:40 and bid and ask started moving up: ask $0.225 & bid $0.2249, ask $0.229 & bid $0.2289, ask $0.23, bid $0.2299, ... peaking at ask $0.265 & bid $0.2649 by 9:39:51, after which the bid fell back to $0.21 at 9:39:55. The sellers recognized the bid retreat and at 9:40:20 started retreating, first to $0.2649. The typical dance began with bids creeping up a bit as asks slipped down slowly - negotiation in the market. By 9:41:43, stability was beginning to appear and the asks started dropping a bit more rapidly as the bids began retreating a bit again. By 9:44 stability beginning with b/a of $0.21xx/$0.22 was achieved.

My take on this now is a possibility that there were some orders in on the buy side that the market-maker(s) could see, and we couldn't see because it wasn't presented in the market, that allowed for a higher buy price by the market-maker, who could chase a bit and still make some money on the arbitrage of buying low in the market and (possibly) selling higher to an in-house customer or via an inter-broker order. We likely wouldn't be able to see these last steps because they didn't put the orders out on the market.

My next take on this includes two distinct possibilities, and even a mix of the two. There was possibly some algorithm-driven computers involved in the chasing prices up. I suspect this because of the speed with which the bid and ask changed in some cases. However, an alternate possibility is that traders or investors, with a decidedly bullish view, from a variety of brokers started pounding in their orders in a determined effort to get some shares. Coming from a potentially large number of traders or investors at apparently random intervals in close temporal proximity would give the same appearance as some algorithm-driven computer(s) operating in the market.

For some context on this, see the second set of trades breakdown in time sequence below.

So, other than the EOD results above, what can we add to gauge which scenario seems most likely. Keep in mind that after this initial rush, we had more typical behavior, including some follow-on weakness, although not our typical "late-day weakness" seen when ATDF was the predominate market-maker controlling the trading we observed. Along with the downside the more active market-makers brought to us they may have brought some upside too, for whatever reason - competition I guess.

Following are breakdowns by price range and then by time blocks.

$0.1970-$0.1998: 057775 shares, 07.78% of vol, VWAP $0.1975, b:s 100%
$0.2001-$0.2040: 105722 shares, 14.24% of vol, VWAP $0.2019, b:s 1:14.10, 6.6% buys
$0.2050-$0.2099: 329337 shares, 44.37% of vol, VWAP $0.2071, b:s 1.12:1, 52.3% buys
$0.2100-$0.2145: 108600 shares, 14.63% of vol, VWAP $0.2106, b:s 1:1.79, 35.8% buys
$0.2150-$0.2150: 012300 shares, 01.66% of vol, VWAP $0.2150, b:s 1:1.56, 39.0% buys
$0.2200-$0.2249: 023225 shares, 03.13% of vol, VWAP $0.2211, b:s 2.10:1, 67.7% buys
$0.2250-$0.2300: 052500 shares, 07.07% of vol, VWAP $0.2287, b:s 1:3.20, 23.8% buys
$0.2310-$0.2650: 052800 shares, 07.11% of vol, VWAP $0.2631, b:s 16.60:1, 94.3% buys

09:30-09:57: 289800 shares, 39.04% of vol, VWAP $0.2208, 68.8% buys
10:03-10:58: 091837 shares, 12.37% of vol, VWAP $0.2077, 83.9% buys
11:03-11:59: 105877 shares, 14.26% of vol, VWAP $0.2047, 23.1% buys
12:01-12:55: 099000 shares, 13.34% of vol, VWAP $0.2074, 30.0% buys
13:02-13:52: 055000 shares, 07.41% of vol, VWAP $0.2098, 25.1% buys
14:01-14:55: 021345 shares, 02.88% of vol, VWAP $0.2049, 9.4% buys
15:04-15:16: 014000 shares, 01.89% of vol, VWAP $0.2071, 53.6% buys
15:31-15:58: 065400 shares, 08.81% of vol, VWAP $0.2054, 7.6% buys

On to the mundane ...

Average trade size seems to be settling in just below 5K as a trend. It might be too early to conclude this, but for now it's looking like what I think is mid-range of retail may have to be adjusted lower with the new set of market-makers participating. The 10, 25, 50 and 100-day averages are 4364, 4377, 5263 and 5032 respectively. Back around 4/22 they were 6745, 5903, 5277 and 5708, so you can see there has been a significant shift (appearing first in the shorter periods), for which we'll have to account if trying to derive meaning from this metric. BTW, the current levels are somewhat similar, on the shorter periods, to what was seen back in the mid-March time-frame when we were in a price downtrend. This is most clearly seen on my charts.

Regardless of (an apparent) selling bias recently, the buy:sell ratio seems generally to be trending toward stabilizing in more traditional ranges. If our recent price collapse was due to the financing deal, this may suggest that any of those financiers that were dumping into the market are either near done for now or have met a wall of buyers hollering "That's dirt cheap - I'll take them off your hands!". Maybe, just maybe, today's early action and then semi-typical weakening in price is a sold demonstration of that? Of course, the sellers could have been retail longs that got scared witless, literally IMO, by the fear of, or details of, the financing.

Relating to that, I'm gonna have my TFH antennae switched to high-gain mode as the first week of July rolls around, just to see if we get some kind of repeat performance. Related to that, I've added a rolling 40-day window that calculates the average of the lowest 20 VWAPS within that window.

The VWAP made a nice recovery today: $0.2363, $0.2176, $0.1961, $0.1942, $0.1949 and $0.2122 today. It was on "good" volume, in thousands: 781.18, 1330.46, 1311.85, 537.91, 433.08 and 742.26. If the VWAP improvement holds, I'll be surprised just on general principal. But the are some indications that it may hold.

The first is the increased volume on a day with a price move up. Our low and VWAP were the best since the $0.21 low and $0.2176 VWAP on 6/10, and our high was the best since 6/4's $0.2719. The range was excessive today - high volatility, which often is a precursor to a change in trend - let's hope it's not just "go flat".

Peeking at some traditional TA stuff, the second thing that instills some cautious optimism is the oscillators I watch. Several are in oversold territory, including the RSI, MFI, Williams %R and stochastic. Since we've had some volume return, I think we can give the oscillators a little more credence than we otherwise might. The ADX and related made a small bullish cross of the DI+ and DI-, but this is a "one-day wonder" ATM. If it continues to improve another day or two we can figure it's telling the truth. Combined with the oversold indications in several oscillators, I'm looking for the bottom to be in and at least some flattening, at worst, and some upside certainly possible.

This is the second consecutive day of higher lows and our close of $0.201 on 2.1K shares, although very near the bottom of today's range, was highest since 6/10's (there's that date again!) $0.212. Note there were only two trades at this price, the other being 10K at 10:47. In the 3.5 minutes prior to the last trade, two trades totaling 32.1K traded at $0.205-$0.206. Since 2.1K was a sell at $0.206 13 seconds earlier and the close was 2.1K at $0.201, there may be some connection between the two trades.

The MACD histogram, which had respond to our recent action with a big negative move, looks to have bottomed and started a slow painful crawl back up, but it won't be fast IMO.

I noticed a pattern that made it worthwhile to check Bulkowski's Gravestone Doji Candlestick discussion. He says "Many people look at a gravestone doji with alarm, especially during an uptrend. They believe that it signals a bearish reversal. It does, but only 51% of the time. I call that random. The trend after the reversal does not amount to much, placing the performance rank at 77 out of 103 candles where a rank of 1 represents a trend that really moves", and there's more of interest, notably "However, after an upward breakout in a bear market, price moves higher by 5.09% in 10 days, which is quite good. When you consider that price closed at the bottom of this candlestick, the climb is even higher (because I measure from a close above the top of the candlestick as the breakout, and do not start counting from the bottom of the doji). Using the height of the candle projected in the direction of the breakout shows that the trend meets the predicted target 79% of the time, which I consider acceptable".

Last, "Gravestone doji candles taller than the median show price that moves about 50% farther after the breakout than those shorter than the median". We qualify here! The height of this candlestick reached 85.7% of the height of the down-leg preceding it.

We need to keep in mind that he's talking exchange-listed stocks and the penny-stock we are involved with can be expected to be less in tune with his metrics.

My original inflection points are beginning to lose their suggestion of a reduction in the weakening. I told you they were "flaky". Four of the six periods are weaker and only the 5 and 50-day show a little improvement. The five-day change of the six periods has a three and three split, with increased weakness in the 5, 10 and 25-day periods and improvement in only the longer-term 50, 100 and 200-day periods. However, the average rate of change over five days for those periods has 5 of the six showing improvement. Only the 5-day shows deterioration. Since only volume and buy:sell are considered in the original calculation versions, this "flaky" behavior is the result as much from what happens at the tail of the period as at the head regarding volume and buy:sell.

My newer version is prettier to look at even if it turns out to be totally bogus! Visually, every period is moving up and the longer-term ones are doing so impressively. As with the original, activity at the tail of the period has influence, but changes were made which increase influence at the head without resorting to crudities ( ;-) ) such as exponential moving averages. Looking at the actual numbers, six periods all had very noticeable reductions in weakness - i.e. "strengthening". But while they are still so far from crossing zero, I prefer to think in terms of less weakness indicated. The five-day change of all was similar except that four periods actually went from "lessening weakness" to "strengthening". Only the 5 and 10-day periods were still "less weakening" in nature. The average rate of change over the five days supports that result in each period.

Looking for analogues to see what might be next, I checked the one-year-snapshot of the newer version near line 21, the closest match to what I see ATM. If the activity repeats, we'll see a modest rise in price that goes into a flat trading pattern. If the visual pattern should morph into something like what's near line 16, then a more substantial rise could be seen. There are some differences in configuration that make this assessment a bit shaky though - the spread between the periods and the width between the shoulders of the valley being the most marked. This may indicate that there's more strength awaiting us as it took longer to make the valley bottoms. I'll be looking to see if the pattern develops further to look more like what's around line 16 (just preceding the 11/14 grind-up beginning) - closely bunched around the zero-line and then all six periods showing reducing weakness and the following day VWAP moved up about a penny-and-a-half and one period shot way above the zero-line. This gave us about a week's advanced notice that moves up were likely.

The start of another grind up would be nice, but I think unlikely, with the financing details known, unless Axion can start a somewhat steady stream of news with significance attached to it. An alternative might be some more laudatory articles about the company and its product(s) in widely-read publications.

Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.

06/13/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 115, MinTrSz: 300, MaxTrSz: 20000, Vol 433078, AvTrSz: 3766
Min. Pr: 0.1902, Max Pr: 0.2000, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1949
# Buys, Shares: 63 227917, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1955
# Sells, Shares: 47 193161, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1941
# Unkn, Shares: 5 12000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.1955
Buy:Sell 1.18:1 (52.6% "buys"), DlyShts 158507 (36.60%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 82.06%

We had a pretty good day, for the most part as buying was relatively strong through ~13:20. I knew it couldn't remain that strong with our cadre of more active market-makers present, but we still end well, as we can see buy looking at recent buy percentages: 63.8%, 36.3%, 28.7%, 40.7%, 22.5% and 52.6% today. I don't know if it was because of the announced second order for batteries from ePower or just a natural response by investors seeing a good risk/reward at these price levels. It's not all coming up roses yet though - the sellers were still quite active and managed to keep price from moving back above $0.20. With volume continuing to fall (in thousands: 781.18, 1330.46, 1311.85, 537.91 and 433.08 today), I'm hopeful this is a sign that the cheap sellers, whoever they are, are getting near exhaustion.

We may have started the turn up even as the VWAP doesn't look all that impressive. Here's the low, high and VWAP for this five-day period. Note the beginning of a possible turn.

0.22010.25000.2363
0.21000.23490.2176
0.19000.21800.1961
0.19000.20000.1942
0.19020.20000.1949

With our sub-$0.20 prices causing "standard presents" to be in the 5K rather than 2.5K size, I don't think I can draw a lot of conclusions from average trade size regarding any possible trend.

The daily short sales continue to behave as it has since our cadre of more active MMs began affecting the action. Note the high percentage of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" above. That's relatively high, which would normally concern me if it was part of a larger trend of higher percentages. We do not have such a trend and my take is that the comeback of buying allowed the sellers to hit the bid a little less, causing the reduced "sells" to cause the percentage of shorts to be higher, as evidenced by the fact that short volume, in thousands, was not out of line: 192.60, 131.80, 246.51, 309.20, 107.14 and 158.51 today. BTW, some unknown (larger?) portion of these volumes is likely attributable to just normal effects of more active MMs and not necessarily indicative of increased selling by traders or investors, IMO.

My original experimental inflection points are looking really "rasty" (rotten and nasty), in terms of absolute values (which aren't all that meaningful - it's the changes and trends that matter, IMO). So even though the absolute values are ugly, the fact that the one-day changes continues to split with three weakening (5, 25 and 200-day) and three improving (10, 50 and 100-day) would suggest things are holding steady ATM. The five-day change for these periods have four improving (5, 10, 25 and 100-day with big improvements in the 5 and 25-day periods and a "nice" improvement in the 100-day) and the average rate of change over the five days has four improving (nice move for the 5 and 25-day) and only two weakening a small amount. If this continues, we might see a formation begin to develop that suggest some price improvement, but I see this as a slow-developing scenario right now.

My newer version of the calculations, which was more pessimistic than the original early on, is now slightly more optimistic with the one-day changes having all six periods improving. The changes over five days for the periods have five of the six improving with only the 5-day not yet responding while the 100 and 200-day periods are showing a nice improvement. The average rate of change over the five days is in exactly the same configuration. If we weren't heading into a Friday, I'm might get all giddy with unwarranted optimism!

Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.

06/12/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 112, MinTrSz: 357, MaxTrSz: 30000, Vol 537910, AvTrSz: 4803
Min. Pr: 0.1900, Max Pr: 0.2000, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1942
# Buys, Shares: 39 120907, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1968
# Sells, Shares: 62 377011, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1933
# Unkn, Shares: 11 39992, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.1952
Buy:Sell 1:3.12 (22.5% "buys"), DlyShts 107142 (19.92%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 28.42%

Looking at the traditional TA-type charts, I don't see a quick rebound in the cards based on that. We've developed a cascade-down pattern that may have bottomed, in contrast to the two recent prior "spikes" down and immediate recovery. [opinion] This is no doubt an effect of the financing news and/or participants. Any recovery will likely be much slower until some *real* news comes out.

This round of financing sent arrows right into the heart of the *investors*.[/opinion]

A very unusual trade before the open ($0.20x2.5K) and one after the close ($0.1935x2.5K) do not appear on the FINRA data. Adding these to Finra's total volume would move it from 532,910 to 537,910 and reduce the short percentage from 20.11% to 19.92%. If we also add it to the day short sales, short volume moves from 107,142 to 112,142 and short percentage moves to 20.85%.

We had a choppy day in a very narrow range that started high ($0.20), dropped to the low of $0.19 by 09:50 and stayed pretty low (high of $0.193) through 13:09. By 13:25, up as high as $0.1999 but no follow-through on volume traded and we retreated to $0.191 by 15:42. we were fortunate to close at $0.1997 on a 10K trade at 15:59.

Having said that, I was glad to see the reduced volume (two prior days both ~1.3MM with only about a 29K difference) on a day that exhibited weak trading price action. Let's hope volume continues to taper of, at least briefly, so that we might conclude the selling rush is over. This is not supported by the buy:sell, yet, but that may be an indication that almost everyone that wants out (for now - next month might have a new bunch) is out.

Average trade size can't be measured in the same range as previously now because the "standard present" is now 5K, rather than 2.5K, in the range below $0.20. So today's average size is very small and not what I would call "retail". But there is some misleading behavior in the market. I noticed over the last few days many groupings of three trades that looked, due to things I've mentioned before, to be a single trade. A common sequence might be a buy or sell of 2.5K, one or more times, followed immediately by a trade(s) in the opposite direction. I think this might be MM action doing one side of their trade and then immediately offsetting the exposure by trading the opposite side. This masks the true size of the trades being serviced. This could also mean that we are seeing a volume closer to the 2:1 ratio of volume to orders that JP has mentioned in the past. How much closer I can't even guess.

The shorter-term buy:sell averages are weakening, but not yet in absurdly low ranges. If we do the normal vacillation, which includes some moves up, we should start to stabilize. This can only happen if the sellers' mindset moves to waiting for buyers to hit the ask, rather than sellers feeling the need to hit the bids hard. If our sellers are the "financiers", I don't look for this change. If they are mostly done for now at this price level, we have a chance to see it.

The daily short sale percentages have been trending lower since the end of May, but the real volume hasn't trended so steadily. In thousands, beginning 5/30: 49.70, 108.77, 95.00, , 30.50, 72.97, 192.60, 131.80, 246.51, 309.20 and 107.14. The percentage decline is generally a result of the increased trading volume.

Combining the short data with the thoughts about the average trade size, I think the *real* short *percentage* is also still very high. There's no way to support or counter this thought because we can't get even a ballpark (frank) estimate of the ratio of trades to (sell) orders and quantities. But my experience after watching for a long time makes me feel this is likely.

My original inflection point have all six periods with deteriorating one-day changes. Over five days, four of the six are weaker with only the 10 and 100-day values showing a small improvement. The average rate of change over the five days has two weaker (5 and 25-day), one essentially unchanged and the 10, 100 and 200-day showing good improvement. This is really a reduction in rate of weakening, at this point, rather than signs of strength.

My newer version is, right now, more positive. That's due to it considering additional factors (the "BangWhiz" variable? ;-) welcome back my friend - here's hoping you have great results and no stress this round). One-day changes had five of the six periods showing reducing weakness, with only the 10-day increasing weakness. The change over five days had the same configuration and the average rate of change over five days had improvement in five periods, *including* the 10-day, with only the 5-day showing a *very* small increase in the rate of weakening. For now, this jibes with my visceral assessment of what I see in the charts and the intra-day action. I know "visceral" doesn't count, but sometimes ...

Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.

06/11/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 215, MinTrSz: 200, MaxTrSz: 50000, Vol 1311846, AvTrSz: 6102
Min. Pr: 0.1900, Max Pr: 0.2180, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1961
# Buys, Shares: 111 534056, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1965
# Sells, Shares: 96 755590, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1960
# Unkn, Shares: 8 22200, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.1933
Buy:Sell 1:1.41 (40.7% "buys"), DlyShts 309200 (23.57%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 40.92%

Three AH trades at $0.20 of 8K, 8K and 2.5K are not included in FINRA daily short sales. Including that volume moves FINRA-reported daily volume from 1,293,346 to 1,311,846 and short percentage from 23.91% to 23.57%. If we also include them in the daily short sales, daily short sales go to 327,700 and short percentage moves to 24.98%.

Since the AH trades were at the closing price, I'm leaning towards them being just MM EOD balancing of their positions by (my best guess) filling a buy order for which they were accumulating throughout the day. With the more active MMs present, I think this is going to be fairly common as long as volume remains high and prices are at an area where folks might consider a buy low-risk.

I'm a bit surprised that we saw price hold as well as it did. On the mundane stuff, average trade size moved into the higher range of retail thanks to a higher number of 10K-25K trades. I guess lots of buyers are seeing the value proposition, vs. risk assumed, at these price levels. The buy:sell being so balanced supports this - sellers were not having to hit the bid to unload shares. Maybe some context will clarify this further. It's a bit fined-grained, due to the narrow spread, but nevertheless ...

$0.1900-$0.1910: 166500 shares, 12.69% of vol, VWAP $0.1906, b:s 1:32.30, 3.0% buys
$0.1911-$0.1949: 441293 shares, 33.64% of vol, VWAP $0.1936, b:s 1:1.68, 35.5% buys
$0.1950-$0.1970: 312753 shares, 23.84% of vol, VWAP $0.1954, b:s 1.36:1, 57.7% buys
$0.1979-$0.1999: 154200 shares, 11.75% of vol, VWAP $0.1983, b:s 24.70:1, 96.1% buys
$0.2000-$0.2050: 148100 shares, 11.29% of vol, VWAP $0.2005, b:s 1:3.56, 21.9% buys
$0.2100-$0.2100: 080600 shares, 06.14% of vol, VWAP $0.2100, b:s 1:7.86, 11.3% buys
$0.2101-$0.2180: 008400 shares, 00.64% of vol, VWAP $0.2117, b:s 1:2.50, 28.6% buys

On our last drop down, 4/29 (coincidentally when the daily short sales started to move up and remaining "high" to-date) we had a nice recovery over the next seven days: $0.2125, $0.2300, $0.2585, $0.2492, $0.2563, $0.2609, $0.2588 and $0.2513. Percentage-wise, mo-mo players would've found a 20%+ gain attractive, which likely explains some of the deterioration that followed.

I've added a couple trend lines to my price chart, using the VWAP as touch points. We are in a descending wedge that we need to break out of. If we do break to the upside, Bulkowski notes an average rise of 32%. Unfortunately, there's a price throwback 56% of the time, so if it does break out the results are not anywhere near certain.

My original inflection point calculations visually present a weakening pattern. The one-day changes have five of the six periods with increased weakness. The five-day change had a three-and-three split of strengthening and weakening. The average rate of change had four periods showing improvement - less average rate of weakening - and the three shortest periods, five, ten and 25--day, showing increasing average rate of strengthening.

My newer version, which seems to have been leading the original in earlier confirmation of a trend without being "flaky", has all six one-day changes and change over five days more negative. The five-day average rate of change has worsened in five of the six periods. Since this version is designed to be slightly less sensitive, it may be lagging detection but I wouldn't hang my hat on that because we know the original is flaky.

Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.

06/10/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 256, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 60000, Vol 1330464, AvTrSz: 5199
Min. Pr: 0.2100, Max Pr: 0.2349, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2176
# Buys, Shares: 108 382450, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2206
# Sells, Shares: 143 938714, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2165
# Unkn, Shares: 5 9300, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.2167
Buy:Sell 1:2.45 (28.7% "buys"), DlyShts 246507 (18.53%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 26.26%

Had two AH trades, 10593 and 5K, totaling 15593, both at $0.21. Adding them to the volume moves the Finra-reported volume from 1314871 to what I show, 1330464, and the short percentage from the FINRA-based calculated 18.75% to my calculated 18.53%. If we also add it to the daily short sales, the short sales move to 262100 from the FINRA-reported 246507 and the short percentage moves to 19.70%.

With the volume and "buy;sell" ratio, I believe the financiers are still heavily in our market. So I'll only mention a few things.

Had some larger trades today that moved average trade size up to look like average retail as share price was hammered down by the sellers. Even so, the buy percentage managed to stay in a normal range. The averages are weakening though, so we don't want to see this continue (DOH!).

Shall I say we had a high-volume day? In fact in the four days from 6/5 onward, the day after effectiveness date of the share issuance related to the financing announced 5/8, we have traded 2,884,908 shares, an average of ~721K/day. On 6/4 our average daily volumes for 10, 25, 50 and 100-day periods were, in thousands, 251, 346, 303 and 281 respectively. Even excluding today, we averaged ~518.15K for the three days prior to today.

Regarding my original inflection points and the newer versions, more negative and even more move negative describe both. On my original every single metric but the five-day change, and their average rate of change, for the five, ten and one-hundred-day periods showed increased weakness. Those three showed strengthening or decreasing weakening. The newer version, in which I'm gaining increasing confidence, showed increased weakness on every metric, without exception.

Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.

06/07/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 163, MinTrSz: 113, MaxTrSz: 29000, Vol 781176, AvTrSz: 4792
Min. Pr: 0.2201, Max Pr: 0.2500, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2363
# Buys, Shares: 62 283350, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2342
# Sells, Shares: 98 482826, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2377
# Unkn, Shares: 3 15000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.2327
Buy:Sell 1:1.70 (36.3%), DlyShts 131800 (16.87%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 27.30%

Little to say now that I realize we are still in exceptional times. If our new financiers are hammering into the market, nothing I can think of to look at is going to help determine good entry points or behavior going forward.

I'll still update my instablog.

Just a note that before we apparently knew how the new share holders from the financing round would behave, I had put up a chart, which I update daily, that was to help tell if another possible grind up was beginning. Although I think the chances are remote now, I'll keep it current until I'm positive. It has a blue and yellow rising support line that showed two possible channels that might be beginning. If we close below the yellow line again Monday, I think both channels are off the table and we'll need to be looking for other patterns to emerge.

Just to confirm what I think all of us already know, my original experimental inflection point calculations have all six periods weakening in the one-day change and all but the five-day weakening over five days. The average rate of change over the five days has all but the five and one-hundred-day weakening.

Recall that over the last several days I mentioned that my newer version was much more pessimistic? Well, the one-day change for five of the six periods are even more pessimistic than the original version - the weakening is of a larger magnitude, overall, and the ten-day has fallen below zero - the last to do so. The change over five days has all but the ten-day period weakening, along with their respective rates of change over the five days. The ten-day and its average rate of change are strengthening a small amount. But this only means, in conjunction with the one-day changes, that a value which dropped out of the ten-day's five-day change window was relatively much larger than the latest five-day calculated value and it is not, alone, indicative of a positive trend. This is exactly why I have multiple period calculations and look for a pattern of substantial agreement to call a signal.

In summary, the down move that was being suggested over many prior days is in full swing. The question is was this a few-days of the new shares from the financing round and, if so, how long will this cycle last and how low will it go. In the concentrator, there's talk that $0.22 is the floor, because of the terms of the financing deal ... until next month when more shares could be injected into those same hands again and again for a total of 12 months. And the price will depend on what happens in this market each month.

Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.

06/06/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 159, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 23000, Vol 554985, AvTrSz: 3490
Min. Pr: 0.2500. Max Pr: 0.2639, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2548
# Buys, Shares: 111 354332, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2560,
# Sells, Shares: 43 194558, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2526
# Unkn, Shares: 5 6095, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.2543
Buy:Sell 1.82:1 (63.8% "buys"), DlyShts 192595 (34.7%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 98.99%

First things first. Someone is doing dastardly deeds, per my TFH. Every day now we have the last trade of the day hit the bid, either during hours or after hours. Today it was the low of the day and the only trade at that price. So, keep that in mind when looking at your technical tools and price action. In furtherance of context, here's a breakdown of the trading ranges.

$0.2500-$0.2500: 005000 shares, 00.90% of vol, VWAP $0.2500, b:s 0% "buys"
$0.2510-$0.2525: 159008 shares, 28.65% of vol, VWAP $0.2518, b:s 1:3.17, 24.0% buys
$0.2530-$0.2550: 223205 shares, 40.22% of vol, VWAP $0.2540, b:s 2.90:1, 72.3% buys
$0.2560-$0.2580: 059980 shares, 10.81% of vol, VWAP $0.2565, b:s 4.16:1, 80.6% buys
$0.2590-$0.2600: 081900 shares, 14.76% of vol, VWAP $0.2597, b:s 57.50:1, 98.3% buys
$0.2619-$0.2639: 025892 shares, 04.67% of vol, VWAP $0.2624, b:s 100% buys

Breaking it down by time-frame:
09:30-10:26: 026106 shares, 04.70% of vol, VWAP $0.2554, 23.7% buys
10:48-11:30: 075275 shares, 13.56% of vol, VWAP $0.2538, 53.2% buys
11:38-12:22: 110961 shares, 19.99% of vol, VWAP $0.2596, 87.6% buys
12:33-13:29: 139250 shares, 25.09% of vol, VWAP $0.2539, 69.2% buys
13:31-14:17: 072651 shares, 13.09% of vol, VWAP $0.2547, 50.2% buys
14:39-15:37: 093242 shares, 16.80% of vol, VWAP $0.2521, 48.8% buys
15:46-15:59: 037500 shares, 06.76% of vol, VWAP $0.2524, 86.7% buys

With that out of the way, recall that if we closed below $0.266 ... Well, "measure twice, cut once" is the rule and I didn't follow it. The real slope of the purple lines for the rising narrow trading channel was $0.0016/day, not the $0.0018/day I posted. That means today the price point that we wanted to hold was ~$0.2623. Didn't make a difference - we couldn't hold that one either. Even the high barely got past it.

Refer to my updated cleaned up chart for the following.

It looks as if we might be making a move towards a possible wider channel's rising support. Recall that I suggested this one (delimited with the blue lines) might come into play as I didn't believe the narrow channel (purple lines) would hold. That wider channel is still possible but today's low offers another possibility, which I've marked with an added rising yellow support line. ATM this new line may be a (more likely?) support as we have an origin and two touch points. The original blue line was an attempt to establish an early indication and as new information becomes available I try to incorporate it.

Because volume was rising, and "high", there several possibilities suggested.

The volume was high enough that the majority of sellers at this price may have been flushed out. Further, looking at the EOD buy:sell and the "buys" in the price breakdown above, we can see that buyers were willing to come in and hit the ask price on a large percentage of the day's trades. There's likely a few sellers that see the closing price and volume and get spooked and dump out, but hopefully very few and the buyers should come in and take those shares with little downside. In this case price may rebound and the newly-added potential support (yellow line) would seem to be in effect and the old potential support (blue line) would be discounted.

If there's more than just a few sellers left at this level and the buyers in this range were exhausted today, the price continues down on heavy, and likely rising, volume and that new potential support (yellow line) is not in effect.

We might move sideways and be unable to determine where support actually resides until a decisive directional change occurs.

One thing I don't want to see is the lows continuing to push on my experimental 13-period lower Bollinger. Recall from past discussions that we tend to do this for around six days, IIRC, if it gets started. That may have changed since the "big uglies" are gone, but we still have "mini-uglies", apparently, and don't know behavior in the current environment (new MMs too!).

We had some odd action today with someone sweeping up shares at the ask. See my comment here.

Average trade size was in the low range of what I believe is retail again, but I noticed something odd that makes me think the orders were much larger than they would appear. First, of course, is "proximity". Quite often several small trades occurred within a few seconds of each other, and even in the same second in several cases, at the same price and were all either "buys" or "sells". This is fairly common, but I've been loathe to try and judge that they are associated with the same order. There was also an odd sequence of trade sizes from 13:31-13:42, all buys except the last 100 shares, which was "unknown": six sets of 100 & 2500 shares, then 2600, 2500 and 100, 7600, 2600 and 100. I don't have any interpretation of this - it's just very unusual and strikes me as a sign a possible larger order was being processed.

Anyway, considering such above items and the volume I think the real average trade size was larger than what the numbers present.

Most things on my experimental instablog stuff continue as before: daily shorts staying in the "normal" range, buy:sell continues to move averages into normal ranges, price continues to weaken.

My original inflection point calculations remain in disarray as the volatility whips them around. The one-day changes have 4 of the six periods improving, showing less weakness. The five-day change of those have a three and three split with the 10, 25 and 50-day showing improvement and the others weakening. The average rate of change of those five-day periods has four improving and two weakening only slightly.

My newer version is a bit less optimistic on the one-day changes, having only three showing improvement and the weakening three being a bit larger in their moves lower. The five-day changes only have two showing improvement and the average rate of change of those five-day metrics have all six periods weakening.

Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.

06/05/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 60, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 11000, Vol 218283, AvTrSz: 3638
Min. Pr: 0.2530, Max Pr: 0.2601, VW Avg. Tr. Pr:0.2594
# Buys, Shares: 12 53418, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2600
# Sells, Shares: 48 164865, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2592
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:3.09 (24.5% "buys"), DlyShts 72968 (33.43%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 44.26%

Referring to the cleaned up chart (updated) that I put up, yesterday I said "We might putter around this level a while or immediately move up or down. With a slope of +~$0.0018/day we need to see the close (and lows?) stay approximately at or above $0.2642, $0.266, ... as we go forward. If we don't, another consolidation, or even a re-trace lower, are possible. We still have a possible support from a possible medium-term rising channel (blue trend lines on the chart I linked) whose support has yet to be tested. It rises $0.00109/day and will be ~$0.2374 tomorrow, then ~$0.2384, then $0.2395, ...".

Today we closed at $0.2585, below the $0.2642 we needed to hold today for the rising channel delineated by the purple lines to remain in play. If we don't close at $0.266 or better Thursday, a break out of that channel will be confirmed. In that case ...

It looks like we would be going to do something I suggested 5/31 when I said, referring to the channel marked by the purple lines, "I've got a potential rising trading channel $0.0225 wide that rises $0.008/week. It's early yet and I'd like to see the support tested once more, but it does look promising. It's range through Friday was ~$0.256 - ~$0.2785. Being as tight as it is, it would be very easy to break out either way, so I wouldn't hang a lot of decisions on it. We need it to expand enough to actually make some legs up and down where we can see "waves" and this channel will not be that channel". This last sentence may describe what will happen.

If we close below the $0.266, which I seems likely, I think we move on down to the potential wider rising channel's untested support, marked by the blue line. Thursday and Friday this would be ~$0.2384 and $0.2395, respectively. With the volume higher on today's move down it's not unthinkable that we would hit that untested support line that quickly.

However, we did stop short of my experimental lower Bollinger at $0.2517. If that was a "close enough" bounce, we might see some recovery in price today. Just have to wait and see.

Average trades size moved back into the low end of what I believe is retail trading. Buy:sell remained reasonable, considering the downward price pressure with higher volume today. Daily short sales percentage continues in what I believe is a normal range. MACD weakened, as we would expect, but hasn't gone negative yet. Sans some improvement in the next day or two, I think it will go bearish on us.

My original experimental inflection point calculations have five of the six periods going more negative and only the 10-day is still positive. Five of the 5-day changes have deteriorated and the average rate of change had five periods weaken. My newer version, as with yesterday, is more bearish with all six periods having a negative one-day change and only the 10-day is still above zero. The five-day change and average changes over five days are all more negative.

Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.

06/04/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 32, MinTrSz: 300, MaxTrSz: 10000, Vol 77889, AvTrSz: 2434
Min. Pr: 0.2605, Max Pr: 0.2719, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2665
# Buys, Shares: 10 28889, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2700
# Sells, Shares: 22 49000, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2645
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:1.70 (37.1% "buys"), DlyShts 30500 (39.16%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 62.24%

I've been wondering if we might have started another "grind up". There's some similarities, but some differences too, notably the steepness of the move up and the concerns in our market existing this time. Last time we were working with some positives, including a belief that the "big uglies" were gone. This time, nothing so positive is in play - only finally getting the capital raise done and the hint that development of an arrangement with a tier-1 battery supplier, instituted by BMW, began several months back. I've slapped up a cleaned up chart that will let you see why I suspect this, as well as get a visual of some of the channel lines that I talk about.

On that chart, you can zoom in with both the usual click on the chart and, in Firefox at least, hit control and + to zoom in even further.

No AH trade today.

Yesterday I suggested that one of the expected moves might be a reversion to the mid-point of the Bollinger bands, ~$0.2627 yesterday. Today that would be $0.2642. The low, $0.2605 pushed past it but the VWAP was close enough. The nice thing about the low was that it was both small volume, only 5 trades for 6.5K shares, and it penetrated and bounced back (except for the closing trade, of course) above my rising near-term support, $0.2624 today, and the 50-day SMA, $0.2602. Since I felt that, for now, it would stay within my rising channel, this is good. It's important that the close, and I prefer the VWAP, continue to stay above this line to keep the up-trend intact.

For now, the very low volume (especially on those $0.2605 trades) and bias of the trades, shown below, suggests that we're just doing a leg down within the rising near-term channel (purple trend lines on the chart I linked). We might putter around this level a while or immediately move up or down. With a slope of +~$0.0018/day we need to see the close (and lows?) stay approximately at or above $0.2642, $0.266, ... as we go forward. If we don't, another consolidation, or even a re-trace lower, are possible. We still have a possible support from a possible medium-term rising channel (blue trend lines on the chart I linked) whose support has yet to be tested. It rises $0.00109/day and will be ~$0.2374 tomorrow, then ~$0.2384, then $0.2395, ...

Before I forget, our close would have been $0.2651 if not for one 1.5K trade at $0.2605 at 15:54:58. Must've been one of those I mentioned in a comment a while back - "sells too late"! ;-) Or if I let my TFH take control ... well, you know.

The bid/ask movements today were more neutral than in a lot of prior days: bids had five increases and five decreases while asks had six and six. I think this is reflected in the very narrow range and price and volume breakdown:
$0.2605-$0.2605: 006500 shares, 08.35% of vol, VWAP $0.2605, 100% "sells"
$0.2650-$0.2699: 052500 shares, 67.40% of vol, VWAP $0.2660, b:s 1:4.25, 19.0% buys
$0.2700-$0.2719: 018889 shares, 24.25% of vol, VWAP $0.2700, 100% "buys"

The sellers hit the bid pretty hard below $0.27. But with such low volume today, I don't know that we should assign much weight to that metric. Add in the very small average trade size and low volume and I think it's just the old uncertainty kicking in - "Let's wait and see what happens next".

The daily short sales continue the trend of settling around an area I expected to eventually appear. I believe this will be the "norm" as long as we have MMs such as ARCA, CSTI, LAMP, CDEL, ... more active in our market. If we see ATDF as the predominate MM again, I expect the short sales would reduce again.

As might be expected with today's action, my original experimental inflection points are weakening with four of the six periods, including the five and ten-day, weakening. The five-day change for those has a split of three and three and the rate of change over the five days has a similar split.

My newer version is more pessimistic with all six periods showing increased weakness along with the five-day changes. The rate of change over the five days has all but the longest period showing increased weakness.

I do want to emphasize that both versions are volume and buy:sell sensitive and changes under theses conditions should be not heavily considered in our thoughts.

Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.

06/03/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 60, MinTrSz: 250, MaxTrSz: 30000, Vol 301541, AvTrSz: 5026
Min. Pr: 0.2700, Max Pr: 0.2775, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2748
# Buys, Shares: 18 136330, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2763
# Sells, Shares: 34 152661, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2737
# Unkn, Shares: 8 12550, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.2728
Buy:Sell 1:1.12 (45.2% "buys"), DlyShts 95000 (31.50%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 62.23%

We had another AH trade below the close, $0.2726, again today - 5K at $0.27. The FINRA data excludes this 5K AH trade. Including it in the day's volume would move daily short percentage from 32.04% to 31.50%. Including it also in the daily short volume would move short volume from 95K to 100K and percentage from 32.04% to 33.16%.

Average trade size moved right into the middle of what I think is "retail" trading and is right at the calculated trend and just above the 25-day average. It has been trending back towards normal levels for over a week now. I think is a good sign that supports the other activity we're seeing. This includes the buy:sell returning to, and maintaining, "normal" levels (10, 25, 50 and 100-day average percentages are 53, 49, 41 and 41 respectively), VWAP price continuing to creep higher (5/20 forward $0.2575, $0.2594, $0.2598, $0.2644, $0.2646, $0.2593, $0.2628, $0.2713, $0.2709 and today $0.2748). We are above the four near-term averages of $0.2678, $0.2645, $0.2544 and $0.2586 for the 5, 10, 25 and 50-day averages respectively.

Volume is a bit anemic, but has been slowly trending higher since the last week of April.

The sellers were a bit less disciplined today. Of the 16 changes I caught, 11 were reductions in the ask and 4 were increases, some "uncovered". And they started reducing before 10:00 too. Meanwhile, the buyers increased the bids 7 times and decreased them 4 times, some "uncovered". In spite of that apparent imbalance, we had price trend higher through around 13:30 and weakness didn't appear until around 15:00, when we started to move down about a half penny by the time of the close. Regardless, we still had the VWAP improve, as you can note above.

On the traditional TA front, the MACD histogram flattened a bit but the signal and average are both now above zero and still trending up. The share price high is pushing right up against the short-term rising channel I mentioned yesterday and the low stayed above the mid-point of that channel. The 10 and 20-day averages are rising (currently $0.2664 and $0.2595 respectively) and we are above them and the 50-day ($0.2608). However, likely due to the low volume, all the oscillators I watch weakened a bit - nothing dramatic and all but the ADX and related are still at or above neutral. But with a bit higher volume and a slightly lower close ($0.2726 from yesterday's $0.2775) I expect they will weaken without a nice increase in volume and/or a price move.

We are near my experimental 13-period upper Bollinger ($0.2813) and a long way from the lower one ($0.2442). Traditional thought would say a move towards the mid-point might be expected. This would be ~$0.2627, which would be just fine as that's still above the rising short-term support of the narrow rising channel, ~$0.2565.

I don't see anything in the TA that suggests risk of a big drop here. ATM just a down leg within the trading channel seems like the most likely worst-case for now.

On my original experimental inflection point calculations, there's still no indication of a strong rise showing. The one-day changes in the six periods have only two showing minor improvement (the "bookend" 10 and 200-day ones) and the 10-day weakened noticeably. The 25, 50 and 100-day had only minor weakening. The change over five days had the same 2 and four configuration, as did the rate of change over the five days. So there's no clear indication of activity going forward there.

My newer version, considering additional factors, is more positive on today's action. The one-day changes were positive for all periods but the 10-day, which weakened only slightly. The five-day change for those periods had all but the 10 and 25-day improving and the average change over the five days had four improving. With the 5, 10 and 25-day calculations all above zero and the 200-day nearing that, the chance of much downside seems low ATM. Recall that the 25-day had recently joined the other two above zero and I don't look for a pullback unless we get a real reversal in the recent action.

But anything is possible with no news and sellers still obviously anxious to exit, if today's behavior is any indication.

Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.

Disclosure: I am long AXPW.OB.

Additional disclosure: I am very experimental, still learning TA and am not very conservative in my trading. But I am conservative regarding my confidence in what I'm learning and my attempts to share with others what I think I see coming. Your own DD is mandatory.

I've been manually collecting this data for a year now while volume was low and it was therefore reasonable to do so. I'll stop when it gets too large unless I can craft a mechanized capture of most of the stuff.

I've captured enough data now that I can reasonably expect to be able to detect patterns on the charts that may signal, somewhat reliably, when price moves are about to occur. To help more easily identify any useful patterns, I've made an instablog, Axion Power International (AXPW) 2/13/2012 And Forward One Year Experimental Charts Snapshots. I've also added some lines to them that may assist in this. For anybody with an interest, I welcome any suggestions and/or help.

I've also put up AXPW Fails-to-deliver Charts 2/11/2013, which I hope will convince folks that John has been correct in asserting the "big uglies" are out of our lives, at least for now. These are updated about every two weeks as data becomes available.

I'll update this instablog daily as long as I can for anybody that might find it useful. The charts will stay near the top and the text updates expressing my most recent thoughts will follow after the charts.

I've arranged the chart segments in this instablog to put what I think are related stuff close together.

This is the ninth installment of the original "AXPW: Some Intra-Day Trade Charting" instablogs I've started doing on Seeking Alpha. The others grew, as I added daily commentary and FINRA data, to the point I was afraid the load time might become an irritant for folks that have less internet bandwidth or older computing equipment so I've started rolling to a new one aperiodically.

Versions subsequent to the original (latest to oldest) can be found here.

AXPW: Intra-Day Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting 3/1/2013

AXPW: Intra-Day Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting 02/01/2013

AXPW: Intra-Day Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting 12/15/2012

AXPW: Intra-Day Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting 11/14/2012

AXPW: Intra-Day Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting

AXPW: Intra-Day Trade Charting 9/6/2012 - Xx/xx/2012

AXPW: Intra-Day Trade Charting 7/7/2012 - 9/5/2012

In the below chart note that the volume is inverted to enhance readability! Be aware when you view it!

(right-click and open in new tab, position cursor over image to be able to zoom and scroll)

The following are modified inflection point calculations bracketing a price chart for comparison. Note that the false bullish moves and contrary moves of the 5-day has been eliminated.

The two inflection points are calculated differently from each other and differently from the original above. More work to do, this is a start, hopefully.

I've identified some changes I want to try on the new inflection point calculations but haven't had time to implement them yet. I'll work them in over time after a little experimentation.

Comments and further suggestions welcome.

(right-click and open in new tab, position cursor over image to be able to zoom and scroll)

In all the charts above I had to:
- estimate 3/27 buy:sell ratio because I couldn't get ADVFN screen-shots that day,
- omit 3/28 data due to garbage from the ADVFN feed.
- estimate the buy:sell for the first 28 trades of 11/26 as the ADVFN feed did not properly classify then because the bid/ask was missing. I put all the $0.26xx trades below $0.2650 as sells and ones at or above $0.2650 as buys. This was 41% of the days volume, 227,698 shares.

Continuing tracking the "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection point calculations values are now only in the latest daily comment - attempting to keep things shorter for faster loading.

05/31/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 55, MinTrSz: 150, MaxTrSz: 23700, Vol 190950, AvTrSz: 3472
Min. Pr: 0.2611, Max Pr: 0.2775, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2709
# Buys, Shares: 26 113450, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2717
# Sells, Shares: 28 72500, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2695
# Unkn, Shares: 1 5000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.2715
Buy:Sell 1.56:1 (59.4% "buys"), DlyShts 98765 (51.72%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 150.02%

We had another 10K AH trade below the closing today, $0.2775, at $0.2720. Still don't have any indication of why. None approach the ~10% seen when we know Quercus was in. My best guess is that it's a market-maker balancing his position at EOD after handling some order. There were 56.6K shares traded above that price, so if he had a sell order for 10K @ $0.2720, this could've been the taking of the shares for a sell order to cover the shares shorted at a higher price during the day. If the customer order was a buy, 134.35K traded at or below that price so the market-maker could've been accumulating during the day at lower prices and then filled the buy order at EOD.

The FINRA daily short sales data excludes the AH trade. Including it in the day's volume would move daily short percentage from 54.58% to 51.72%. Including it also in the daily short volume would move short volume from 98765 to 108765 and percentage from 54.58% to 59.96%. Regardless, it's interesting, to me, that it peaked right at the ascending upper trend line I had added to my chart a while back. I expect it will withdraw back to somewhere in the mid-range Monday.

A big change in selling behavior occurred today. I suspect it was due to the comment I posted from an Axionista detailing the difficulty in acquiring shares. Or maybe my comments about the sellers being too easy in light of what I thought was demonstrated bullishness by the buyers. Maybe both. Anyway, as I posted, "Kudos to them" for showing some discipline. That was before I did my usual look at EOD. That now seems to support my take ...

First, only six of eighteen "peeks" at the ask were reductions in the asking price. Ten were increases (some "uncovered") and two unchanged. Of the decreases, three had ATDF (a "usual suspect") at the top and the other three were ARCA. The demonstration of discipline came after the last reduction at 10:45 to $0.263 by ARCA. This was the last lowering of the price I caught for the day (there could've - nay, certainly must have been - others that I didn't catch). The next check, at 1:02, started a string of eight consecutive increases, culminating in the last change before the close to an ask of $0.2775.

What were the bidders doing? Well, they were "rising to the challenge"! :-) As I would expect if there is a bullish bias out there in the wild.

Of the twenty-three looks I took nineteen were improvements in the bid and three were lowering (some "uncovered"). Most notably, from 12:48 onward, nine were raises of the bid and only two were lowered bids.

We had strength into the close as both the asks and bids rose and buy:sell was 1.38:1 (57.99% "buys") in the last 49 minutes on 44.25% of the day's total volume.

Some context for all this - note where the "gravitas" is without any exceptional large trades today ...
$0.2611-$0.2630: 006700 shares, 03.51% of vol, VWAP $0.0092, 22.4% buys
$0.2650-$0.2690: 031150 shares, 16.31% of vol, VWAP $0.2672, 59.9% buys
$0.2700-$0.2740: 128300 shares, 67.19% of vol, VWAP $0.2711, 53.4% buys
$0.2750-$0.2775: 024800 shares, 12.99% of vol, VWAP $0.2767, 100.0% buys

If any "sellers" below $0.27 read this, please pay attention to the skew above - maybe you could do better for yourself. Of course, I have no interest in this, right? ;-))

Another look at the trend throughout the day might be useful?
09:54-10:31: 006650 shares, 03.48% of vol, VWAP $0.2648, 92.5% buys
10:45-11:28: 026200 shares, 13.72% of vol, VWAP $0.2663, 53.4% buys
11:39-13:28: 097000 shares, 50.80% of vol, VWAP $0.2706, 53.8% buys
13:34-13:55: 010600 shares, 05.55% of vol, VWAP $0.2717, 52.8% buys
14:53-15:23: 010700 shares, 05.60% of vol, VWAP $0.2725, 76.6% buys
15:32-16:02: 039800 shares, 20.84% of vol, VWAP $0.2750, 68.6% buys

Sellers paying attention here too?

On to the mundane ...

The average trade size remained in the lower area of what I think is retail. I think this trend is partly caused by the presence of the newer more active market-makers. With few "large" bids and asks being both present simultaneously recently, I think the MMs have to work harder to get the job done, as JP mentioned some time back.

All the buy:sell averages are back in the "normal" range, a nice change from what was seen in late April with all but the 100-day average far below the "normal" range.

My original inflection point calculations are showing improvement again. Yes, I know - recall that I termed them a bit "flaky" a long time back. Anyway, the one-day changes had four improved and two deteriorating a small amount. The five-day change in the six periods had only one improving and the rate of change over five days for those periods also had only one showing improvement. The summary for this state of affairs appears visually as "in disarray" on the chart and not giving me confidence to call any movement based on these metrics and the chart.

My newer version, which includes other factors, fulfilled yesterday's promise of getting the 25-day period above zero (moved from -0.19 yesterday to -0.13 mid-day and finished at +14.17, a strong move) to join the 5 and 10-period calculations. This means the three short-term calculations are in agreement in suggesting that a move up has begun to manifest itself. The longer-term periods (50, 100 and 200) will not be responding strongly until volume comes in or a long-time passes without severe deterioration in their various metrics.

Anyway, the one-day changes for the six periods have two improving (the 10 and 25-day) while the 5-day weakened slightly and the longer-term ones weakened a noticeable amount. Keep in mind that these need either more volume or more time before they respond well to near-term moves and are, to some degree, affected by their "tails", just like averages. Depending on what falls off the "tails", they could suddenly jump. I could go look and predict, but I don't see much value in that right now. The changes over five days of the six periods only shows the 10-day improving and the others weakened a bit. The average changes over five days of those periods shows only the 50 and 100-day improving while the others deteriorated slightly.

Although I believe the start of a move up continues, as I mentioned a few days ago, I don't see the strength in it yet that I would like. Maybe it's time to dip back into a little traditional TA and see if there's anything there that might sway me.

Well, the first thing is the MACD histogram and signal are positive and the average rose to zero. All seem destined to be going more positive ATM. The other day I mentioned that we were near the apex of a triangle I had been watching and should break out. We did - to the upside. We've now had three consecutive closes above the descending resistance of the triangle - a bullish indication. Since the low of $0.2001 on 4/29, we've had an overall trend of higher lows. BTW, I almost called a "double-pipe bottom" on 4/30, but the "pipes" weren't quite close enough for me to crank up the courage.

The WVAP of the last three days, $0.2628, $0.2713 and $0.2709 are above the "standard" charting price 50-day SMA for those days of $0.2612, $$0.2612 and $0.2608. I've got a potential rising trading channel $0.0225 wide that rises $0.008/week. It's early yet and I'd like to see the support tested once more, but it does look promising. It's range through Friday was ~$0.256 - ~$0.2785. Being as tight as it is, it would be very easy to break out either way, so I wouldn't hang a lot of decisions on it. We need it to expand enough to actually make some legs up and down where we can see "waves" and this channel will not be that channel. When we see that, we might recognize the start of another "grind up". For now there's a bias upward in a narrow rising channel that should be able to prevent much of a down move in the near-term. This is sort of an upward-biased consolidation ATM, inside of a longer-term triangle, which is also a consolidation, with the rising support currently at ~$0.246 and rising ~$0.01/week.

Of the oscillators I watch, right now only the accumulation/distribution (just finished rising to almost neutral and continuing up it looks like) and stochastic (%K just crossed into overbought and above %D) are showing bullishness. The rest are fairly neutral and showing no coordinated directional indications.

In summary of the traditional TA, nothing mind-boggling going on here - just a bias towards a rising share price at the moment that is a bit fragile, but has some rising support, both in the channel and the triangle, that should prevent any dramatic moves downward. If one expects news that would move share price in the next month or two, decisions to enter here should be seen as relatively low risk.

Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points omitted from the concentrator.

Rolling 5-day inflection point calculation aggregate percentage change (now abbreviated):
******* ******* *5 Day** *10 Day * * 25Day ** 50 Day **100Day* 200 Day
05/01 5 Day -0033.99 -0087.44 -0405.65 -0005.80 -0389.45 -0032.88
05/02 5 Day -0165.79 +0132.46 -0321.11 -0074.07 -0342.56 +0150.27
05/03 5 Day +0391.10 +0524.13 -0175.48 -0119.87 +0030.68 +0031.46
05/06 5 Day +0344.99 +0733.08 +0568.79 +0180.22 +0452.20 -0168.80
05/07 5 Day +0232.87 +0582.81 +0467.23 +0177.61 +0620.82 -0511.39
05/08 5 Day +0695.46 +0661.46 +0748.97 +0358.52 +0749.23 +0158.36
05/09 5 Day +0822.86 +0657.07 +1026.07 +0443.47 +0861.18 +0182.23
05/10 5 Day +0574.92 +0183.82 +1078.30 +0326.64 +0588.89 +0225.24
05/13 5 Day +0011.18 +0372.37 +0708.92 +0166.91 +0772.79 -0102.58
05/14 5 Day -0002.56 +0230.30 +0516.31 -0207.21 +0788.80 -0131.13
05/15 5 Day +0641.91 +0063.55 +0208.05 -0455.27 +0360.45 -0798.36
05/16 5 Day +0903.35 -0080.50 -0094.75 -0510.03 +0478.91 -0789.10
05/17 5 Day +0635.15 -0060.22 -0149.43 -0363.86 +0551.62 -0683.41
05/20 5 Day +0186.62 +0175.45 +0214.61 -0048.37 +0436.13 -0299.99
05/21 5 Day +0026.67 +0024.11 +0345.09 +0280.36 +0108.11 -0035.73
05/22 5 Day +0522.23 -0119.68 +0498.34 +0394.82 +0440.72 +0139.62
05/24 5 Day +0533.04 -0083.61 +1015.45 +0461.86 -0007.61 +0492.82
05/28 5 Day +0435.95 +0249.33 +1009.78 +0678.09 -0193.42 +0590.96
05/29 5 Day +0429.97 +0456.64 +1036.89 +0907.83 +0061.88 +0629.91
05/30 5 Day +0185.05 +0707.28 +0736.83 +0874.32 -0282.25 +0420.90
05/31 5 Day +0037.79 +0815.38 +0569.09 +0833.03 -0629.11 +0391.59

Average % change/day, 5 days
____ **5 Day *10 Day *25 Day *50 Day 100 Day 200 Day
04/25 +088.99 +016.16 +108.41 +079.68 +080.05 +044.17
04/26 +305.71 +064.53 +201.56 +237.94 +193.50 +111.74
04/29 +149.46 +016.08 +030.64 +159.96 +084.58 +181.12
04/30 +122.35 +030.41 +018.11 +184.52 +177.44 +211.43
05/01 +003.89 -053.19 -108.63 +095.29 +151.77 +137.97
05/02 -092.81 -003.82 -117.01 +022.69 +059.85 +189.34
05/03 -104.83 +044.45 -125.94 -079.57 +082.94 +114.89
05/06 -008.62 +140.84 +149.46 +030.67 +256.43 -002.32
05/07 -023.42 +098.94 +101.15 +006.62 +216.84 -136.31
05/08 +145.89 +149.78 +230.92 +072.86 +227.74 +038.25
05/09 +197.73 +104.92 +269.44 +103.51 +240.75 +006.39
05/10 +036.76 -068.06 +250.76 +089.30 +111.64 +038.76
05/13 -070.00 -075.38 +024.79 -005.90 +060.88 +010.00
05/14 -047.09 -070.50 +009.81 -076.96 +033.60 +076.05
05/15 -012.71 -121.58 -110.18 -164.76 -079.76 -193.34
05/16 +016.10 -147.51 -224.16 -190.70 -076.45 -194.27
05/17 +012.05 -048.81 -245.55 -138.10 -007.45 -181.73
05/20 +035.09 -039.38 -098.86 -043.06 -067.33 -039.48
05/21 +005.85 -041.24 -034.24 +097.51 -136.14 +019.08
05/22 -023.94 -036.64 +058.06 +170.02 +016.05 +187.60
05/24 -016.72 -008.38 +229.27 +161.44 -115.55 +231.54
05/28 +049.87 +014.78 +159.03 +145.29 -125.91 +178.19
05/29 +080.66 +086.51 +138.36 +125.49 -009.25 +133.13
05/30 -067.44 +165.39 +047.70 +095.90 -144.59 +056.26
05/31 -147.96 +188.23 -052.09 +056.32 -169.81 -024.64

I encourage those with an interest to look at the charts and notice the prior patterns similar to the current one and the resulting price activity.

Dly Sht % of 'sells' values JIC it turns out to be useful...
Wed., 8/01: 2.37% 46.91% 0.00%
Mon., 8/06: 19.99% 33.11% 3.34% 73.89% 33.88%
Mon., 8/13: 25.13% 3.06% 71.64% 50.47% 393.87%
Mon., 8/20: 129.14% 155.71% 899.39% 137.13% 209.19%
Mon., 8/27: 34.71% 61.1% 107.48% 24.28% 104.22%
Tue., 9/4 148.07% 28.40% 16.32% 3.01%
Mon. 9/10: 23.65% 50.20% 26.05% 252.39% 185.99%
Mon. 9/17: 32.74% 12.62% 12.85% 42.25% 42.89%
Mon. 9/24: 5.08% 50.67% 89.56% 9.24% 44.74%
Mon. 10/1: 74.24% 67.10% 517.63% 102.93%
Mon. 10/8: 28.10% 27.40% 11.45% 27.48% 25.32%
Mon. 10/15: 44.06% 17.09% 71.49% 40.64% 139.27%
Mon. 10/22: 194.20% 19.54% 25.53% 15.21% 15.17%
Wed. 10/31: 62.24% 149.46% 39.90%
Mon. 11/05: 30.92% 7.61% 6.98% 3.53% 10.10%
Mon. 11/12: 4.01% 116.57% 30.19% 16.71% 39.58%
Mon. 11/19: 14.90% 3.88% 259.67% T'gvg Day 8.97% (1/2 day)
Mon. 11/26: 65.57% 142.31% 59.83% 11.20% 69.26%
Mon. 12/03: 29.97% 13.19% 10.55% 15.57% 40.42%
Mon. 12/10: 3.59% 9.24% 135.35% 6.19% 12.73%
Mon. 12/17: 26.17% 8.82% 44.97% 3.63% 15.11%
Mon. 12/24: 258.33% 92.71% 31.98% 1.54%
Mon. 12/31: 14.36% H'lday 262.58% 6.39% 131.03%
Mon. 01/07: 45.09% 77.18% 52.53% 36.35% 52.72%
Mon. 01/14: 27.99% 0.70% 48.48% 11.09% 11.21%
Tues. 01/22: 00.26% 23.79% 12.89% 8.36%
Mon. 01/28: 69.26% 42.03% 7.96% 0.00% 28.33%
Mon. 02/04: 17.36% 28.73% 18.53% 12.68% 39.65%
Mon. 02/11: 25.67% 5.99% 16.57% 17.04% 8.23%
Tues. 02/19: 19.57% 19.88% 10.17% 30.54%
Mon. 02/25: 2.88% 55.65% 28.57% 6.95% 0.28%
Mon. 03/04: 100.79% 18.46% 11.55% 21.97% 3.61%
Mon. 03/11: 25.81% 9.64% 1.35% 13.40% 0.00%
Mon. 03/18: 7.10% 5.65% 9.26% 25.15% 9.02%
Mon. 03/25: 1.47% 14.69% 4.15% 25.64%
Mon. 04/01: 4.74% 11.82% 19.85% 3.42% 0.59%
Mon. 04/08: 8.01% 9.51% 13.54% 0.00% 6.62%
Mon. 04/15: 2.68% 8.94% 5.64% 1.67% 18.45%
Mon. 04/22: 0.42% 4.90% 690.95% 39.86% 22.22%
Mon. 04/29: 5.98% 14.04% 17.33% 13.58% 150.50%
Mon. 05/06: 9.96% 9.15% 114.65% 53.10% 39.36%
Mon. 05/13: 33.94% 54.27% 29.90% 61.57% 104.44%
Mon. 05/20: 92.10% 132.60% 34.23% 55.97%
Tue. 05/28: 76.82% 109.81% 28.64% 150.02%

Feb Avg: 54.68%, min: 0.35%, max: 200.89%
Mar Avg: 49.86%, min: 0.70%, max: 252.30%
Apr Avg: 31.50%, min: 0.00%, max: 74.35%
May Avg: 62.73%, min: 0.00%, max: 398.94%

Then the Mega-C shares entered market? Note the hefty change in both the averages and maximums.

Jun Avg: Avg: 183.48%, min: 5.05%, max: 1607.50%
Jul Avg: 176.07%, min: 7.75%, max: 1273.20%

Sometime in August I began stating that I thought the larger sellers might be getting exhausted.

Aug Avg: 113.91%, min: 0.00%, max: 899.39%
Sep Avg: 56.67%, min: 3.01%, max: 252.39%
Oct Avg: 85.05%, min: 11.45%, max: 565.73%
Nov Avg: 51.96%, min: 3.53%, max: 259.67%
Dec Avg: 38.72%, min: 1.54%, max: 258.33%

============ 2013 ===============
Jan Avg: 44.20%, min: 0.00%, max: 262.58%
Feb Avg: 20.90%, min: 2.88%, max: 55.65%
Mar Avg: 15.42%, min: 0.00%, max: 100.79%
Apr Avg: 40.63%, min: 0.00%, max: 690.95%
May Avg: 67.58%, min: 9.15%, max: 150.50%

0531 Vol 0180950, Sht 0098765 54.58% LHC 0.2611 0.2775 0.2775 b:s 1.38:1[65]
0530 Vol 0221542, Sht 0049700 22.43% LHC 0.2650 0.2739 0.2739 b:s 1:3.62
0529 Vol 0518608, Sht 0199204 38.41% LHC 0.2526 0.2750 0.2720 b:s 1.89:1[64]
0528 Vol 0538254, Sht 0132592 24.63% LHC 0.2540 0.2660 0.2600 b:s 2.23:1[63]
0524 Vol 0155897, Sht 0056184 36.04% LHC 0.2602 0.2690 0.2611 b:s 1:1.63[62]
0523 Vol 0109249, Sht 0033000 30.21% LHC 0.2550 0.2960 0.2690 b:s 2.89:1[61]
0522 Vol 0167469, Sht 0031100 18.57% LHC 0.2520 0.2650 0.2600 b:s 1:1.23
0521 Vol 0185758, Sht 0086259 46.44% LHC 0.2531 0.2640 0.2600 b:s 1.68:1
0520 Vol 0355550, Sht 0135850 38.21% LHC 0.2510 0.2615 0.2600 b:s 1.41:1
0517 Vol 0261558, Sht 0092700 35.44% LHC 0.2500 0.2640 0.2591 b:s 1.78:1
0515 Vol 0370415, Sht 0078250 21.12% LHC 0.2390 0.2500 0.2430 b:s 1:2.41
0514 Vol 0590688, Sht 0178460 30.21% LHC 0.2210 0.2510 0.2500 b:s 1:1.32
0513 Vol 0778100, Sht 0155500 19.98% LHC 0.2350 0.2500 0.2460 b:s 1:1.70
0510 Vol 0270484, Sht 0066455 24.57% LHC 0.2401 0.2500 0.2480 b:s 1:1.67
0509 Vol 0304708, Sht 0068700 22.55% LHC 0.2451 0.2592 0.2459 b:s 1.35:1
0508 Vol 1143057, Sht 0539744 47.22% LHC 0.2300 0.2650 0.2549 b:s 1.45:1
0507 Vol 0129978, Sht 0005424 04.17% LHC 0.2560 0.2625 0.2600 b:s 1.19:1
0503 Vol 0183500, Sht 0076000 41.42% LHC 0.2500 0.2598 0.2590 b:s 2.63:1
0502 Vol 0184550, Sht 0018850 10.21% LHC 0.2410 0.2600 0.2600 b:s 1:3.04
0501 Vol 0301628, Sht 0032500 10.77% LHC 0.2400 0.2795 0.2610 b:s 1:1.64
0430 Vol 0407902, Sht 0021880 05.36% LHC 0.2101 0.2549 0.2390 b:s 1.57:1
0429 Vol 1332379, Sht 0051500 03.87% LHC 0.2001 0.2440 0.2119 b:s 1:1.83
0426 Vol 0133648, Sht 0016000 11.97% LHC 0.2324 0.2499 0.2449 b:s 1:1.27
0425 Vol 0191550, Sht 0061000 31.85% LHC 0.2400 0.2500 0.2400 b:s 1:3.97
0424 Vol 0161622, Sht 0067022 41.47% LHC 0.2450 0.2500 0.2500 b:s 13.29:1
0423 Vol 0070533, Sht 0000833 01.18% LHC 0.2401 0.2500 0.2500 b:s 3.15:1
0422 Vol 0240850, Sht 0000550 00.23% LHC 0.2400 0.2559 0.2401 b:s 1:1.20
0419 Vol 0515507, Sht 0078791 15.28% LHC 0.2321 0.2603 0.2450 b:s 1:4.83
0418 Vol 0295580, Sht 0004500 01.20% LHC 0.2600 0.2625 0.2600 b:s 1:136.86
0417 Vol 0115060, Sht 0005275 04.58% LHC 0.2600 0.2750 0.2600 b:s 1:4.35
0416 Vol 0161636, Sht 0009600 05.94% LHC 0.2601 0.2700 0.2601 b:s 1:1.98
0415 Vol 0253015, Sht 0005800 02.29% LHC 0.2600 0.2629 0.2601 b:s 1:5.89
0412 Vol 0091300, Sht 0004500 04.93% LHC 0.2601 0.2739 0.2622 b:s 1:2.92
0411 Vol 0146890, Sht 0000000 00.00% LHC 0.2600 0.2629 0.2604 b:s 1:2.08[60]
0410 Vol 0106016, Sht 0010900 10.28% LHC 0.2605 0.2669 0.2639 b:s 1:3.15
0409 Vol 0217371, Sht 0012500 05.75% LHC 0.2611 0.2725 0.2650 b:s 1:1.53
0408 Vol 0196151, Sht 0011200 05.71% LHC 0.2600 0.2800 0.2600 b:s 1:2.48
0405 Vol 0360500, Sht 0001700 00.47% LHC 0.2600 0.2960 0.2648 b:s 1:4.04
0404 Vol 0446792, Sht 0011884 02.66% LHC 0.2602 0.2950 0.2855 b:s 1:3.52
0403 Vol 0100000, Sht 0010300 10.30% LHC 0.2600 0.2699 0.2675 b:s 1:1.08
0402 Vol 0262385, Sht 0024245 09.24% LHC 0.2550 0.2699 0.2650 b:s 1:3.58
0401 Vol 0323220, Sht 0014100 04.36% LHC 0.2600 0.2849 0.2800 b:s 1:11.63
0328 Vol 0101815, Sht 0015000 14.73% LHC 0.2760 0.2850 0.2849 b:s 1:1.35
0327 Vol 0192540, Sht 0006500 03.38% LHC 0.2751 0.3000 0.2889 b:s 1:4.37
0326 Vol 0089377, Sht 0005977 06.69% LHC 0.2800 0.2950 0.2899 b:s 1.20:1
0325 Vol 0355680, Sht 0004000 01.12% LHC 0.2771 0.3000 0.2800 b:s 1:3.26
0322 Vol 0197489, Sht 0003700 01.87% LHC 0.2700 0.2895 0.2890 b:s 3.57:1
0321 Vol 0314345, Sht 0035494 11.29% LHC 0.2750 0.2979 0.2750 b:s 1.23:1
0320 Vol 0399349, Sht 0021150 05.30% LHC 0.2700 0.3000 0.2939 b:s 1:1.34
0319 Vol 0357598, Sht 0014793 04.14% LHC 0.2700 0.2851 0.2750 b:s 1:2.74
0318 Vol 0204330, Sht 0010830 05.30% LHC 0.2800 0.2999 0.2894 b:s 1:2.94
0315 Vol 0210470, Sht 0000000 00.00% LHC 0.2810 0.3039 0.2950 b:s 1:7.02
0314 Vol 0183300, Sht 0019000 10.37% LHC 0.2880 0.3040 0.2880 b:s 1:3.42
0313 Vol 0138180, Sht 0001500 01.09% LHC 0.2900 0.3040 0.3040 b:s 1:4.13
0312 Vol 0193325, Sht 0013720 07.10% LHC 0.2931 0.3194 0.3000 b:s 1:2.79
0311 Vol 0043325, Sht 0004000 09.23% LHC 0.3100 0.3197 0.3195 b:s 1.80:1
0308 Vol 0136805, Sht 0004160 03.04% LHC 0.3050 0.3198 0.3198 b:s 1:5.39
0307 Vol 0170660, Sht 0029125 17.07% LHC 0.3010 0.3250 0.3050 b:s 1:2.62[59]
0306 Vol 0143208, Sht 0010604 07.40% LHC 0.3200 0.3369 0.3200 b:s 1:2.92
0305 Vol 0225324, Sht 0030291 13.44% LHC 0.3300 0.3500 0.3345 b:s 1:2.68
0304 Vol 0304233, Sht 0043363 14.25% LHC 0.3002 0.3400 0.3350 b:s 6.07:1
0301 Vol 0097450, Sht 0000200 00.21% LHC 0.3000 0.3100 0.3099 b:s 1:2.80
0228 Vol 0077100, Sht 0004550 05.90% LHC 0.3000 0.3200 0.3001 b:s 1:5.65
0227 Vol 0132545, Sht 0020429 15.41% LHC 0.2926 0.3109 0.3100 b:s 1:1.17
0226 Vol 0044241, Sht 0012740 28.80% LHC 0.2880 0.3095 0.2926 b:s 1:1.07
0225 Vol 0073600, Sht 0002000 02.72% LHC 0.2890 0.3089 0.2900 b:s 1:17.38
0222 Vol 0115700, Sht 0020000 17.29% LHC 0.2880 0.3108 0.2990 b:s 1:1.63
0221 Vol 0020650, Sht 0002100 10.17% LHC 0.2911 0.3001 0.3001 b:s 0:20650
0220 Vol 0108250, Sht 0016350 15.10% LHC 0.2910 0.3109 0.2910 b:s 1:3.16
0219 Vol 0255826, Sht 0033217 12.98% LHC 0.2910 0.3109 0.3000 b:s 1:2.14
[59] Two pre-market trades totaling 12.5K are not included in FINRA-reported data. Adding these to the day's volume yields a short percentage of 15.9%. If it's also added to the short sales, the percentage goes to 22.73%.
[60] An AH 50K trade is not included in the FINRA data. Including that in the volume has no effect because reported short sales were zero. If we also include it in short sales, the short percentage moves to 25.39%. However, with the recent daily short sales so low, there's no reason to believe these were a short sale.
[61] An AH trade of 5.1K is not included in the FINRA daily short sales. Including it in day's volume 28.86%, Including it as short volume as well yields 33.32%.
[62] Second day in a row an AH trade below the close: manipulation suspected. See this comment. http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/1631091-axion-power-host/1890011-axion-power-concentrator-239-may-24-axion-power-reports-first-quarter-results-for-2013#comment-19222951
The FINRA data does not include the AH trade of 6K. Adding this to the day's volume moves the short percentage from the FINRA-based 36.04% to 34.70%. If we also add it to short sales, the percentage moves to 38.41%.
[63] The FINRA data does not include an AH trade of 19.7K. Including it moves the FINRA-reported short percentage from 24.63% to 23.76%. If it's also added to short sales, the short volume moves to 152,292 and percentage moves to 27.29%.
[64] The FINRA data excludes a 10K AH trade. Including it in the day's volume would move daily short percentage from 38.41% to 37.68%. Including it also in the daily short volume would move volume from 199204 to 209,204 and percentage from 38.41% to 39.58%.
[65] The FINRA data excludes a 10K AH trade. Including it in the day's volume would move daily short percentage from 54.58% to 51.72%. Including it also in the daily short volume would move volume from 98765 to 108765 and percentage from 54.58% to 59.96%.

05/30/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 38, MinTrSz: 200, MaxTrSz: 91462, Vol 221542, AvTrSz: 5830
Min. Pr: 0.2650, Max Pr: 0.2739, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2713
# Buys, Shares: 14 48000, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2720
# Sells, Shares: 24 173542, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2711
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:3.62 (21.7% "buys"), DlyShts 49700 (22.43%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 28.64%

The most important thing, I think, is to note that we again had a large, 112,642 shares, bid at $0.272 at the open. It was from CDEL and I think my thought that yesterday was ATDF was incorrect. Anyway, it just sat there and no one wanted to jump ahead on the bid. Consequently, through 11 trades prior to 10:27, only one was a buy as the sellers were apparently seeing this as a gift from God. The sell percentage in that period was 99.6% on 126.8K shares.

Fortunately, subsequent action was more normal and there was actually some price negotiation going on. The next 94.7K shares, which took from 10:27 through the close, had a sell percentage of 49.85% (buys 50.16%), approximately 1:1. This would've made a nice day if that second segment had more volume. It was able to maintain price, even setting the high for the day. The low during that period, matching the day's low (set by the prior trade, 7.5K total shares in these two trades at $0.265 at 10:24 & 10:27) was never revisited. VWAP for this second segment was $0.2706 (excluding that trade matching the low, it's $0.2708).

We closed up 0.70% (+$0.0019 YIPPEE! Better than a sharp stick in the eye!).

The question going forward is will the sellers now maintain some discipline or go hell-bent for leather at the first not absolutely ugly bid that comes along.

On the mundane, average trade size is right back in the middle of what I think is retail. The buy:sell, although low, was not abhorrent, especially considering the early-day action I described above. Daily short sales continue to behave as expected and volume is back below all the averages - not surprising the price behavior yesterday and today. I'm sure some folks are just sitting out this odd behavior for now.

My original inflection point calculations, which considers only volume and buy:sell, reacted as we might expect. The one-day change for the six periods had four weaken and the other two strengthen only marginally. The five-day changes had only one strengthen and the rate of change over five days for the periods had five weaken as well. My newer version, which has additional considerations, had one-day changes IMPROVE for five of the six periods. The change over five days had five improve and the average change over the five days had five improvements s well. Yesterday I mentioned the two shortest periods had moved above zero and expected the 25-day to do so today if we didn't get weakening. Thanks to the action in the first hour, described above, it didn't quite make it. It's at -0.69. If the action tomorrow can just maintain at least as well as it did today, the 25-day should move above zero, putting the three shortest-term calculations suggesting a trend up has begun.

Another notable item is that there was NO after-hours trade today.

Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.

05/29/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 105, MinTrSz: 404, MaxTrSz: 46000, Vol 528608, AvTrSz: 5034
Min. Pr: 0.2526, Max Pr: 0.2750, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2628
# Buys, Shares: 76 342204, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2617
# Sells, Shares: 27 181404, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2647
# Unkn, Shares: 2 5000,VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.2670
Buy:Sell 1.89:1 (64.7% "buys"), DlyShts 199204 (37.68%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 109.81%

The FINRA daily short data excludes a 10K AH trade. Including it in the day's volume would move daily short percentage from 38.41% to 37.68%. Including it also in the daily short volume would move volume from 199204 to 209,204 and percentage from 38.41% to 39.58%. Shortest to longest averages are ordered highest to lowest and all are rising, suggesting this trend, begun around 4/27, will continue. I'm expecting things to stabilize somewhere around the +/- 30% area.

This string of AH trades says something different is going on. We don't know what it is though. Today was different in that it was not well-below the closing price of $0.2720, but was at that price.

An notable aberration in the trading today: around 15:30 we saw a bid of $0.272 x 182,642. This might have been a bump up from the 104K @ $0.255 from ATDF I noted appeared at 13:33 or might have been from CDEL - I didn't catch it's first appearance, so I'm unsure which MM was the big one, but both appeared on the top of the bid at that price. Anyway, it made for some nice trading as VWAP from 15:18 through the AH trade was $0.2721 on 100.4K shares.

It did ruin our buy sell though which was 3.92:1 prior to that. As the bids came up to this level, the sellers went wild with only three trades being buys (totaling 5K) and nine (95.4K, ~18% of day's volume) being sells during that time. It did help the VWAP though, as we could expect. Up to that time the VWAP was $0.2607.

Average trade size fell back a bit but remains in the middle of what I believe to be typical retail size. Buy:sell continues in normal ranges and the averages are all there and are all properly ordered, shortest to longest periods being highest to lowest percentages.

I've not jumped back into TA on this yet, but I did have a triangle I was watching whose apex is formed Thursday, 5/30. It's interesting that we get a break well above it's resistance line today. Also, the MACD that DRich brought to our attention some time ago is showing decidedly bullish tendencies and has been moving that direction for some time.

My original inflection point calculations have come into agreement with that today: the one-day change for all six periods are improved, the change over five days has five of size periods improving and the rate of change of those over five days has three improving (5, 10 and 100-day) with the other three weakening slightly.

My newer version, which includes other factors, is not only in agreement, but even more positive today. The one-day change in the six periods are six improved by big amounts with the change over five days improving on all six periods and the rate of change of those over five days showing improvement in five of the six periods. Significantly, I think, is that the five and 10-day periods are both above zero with the 25-day likely to move there today if weakness doesn't return. The five-day period has been positive since 5/21 and improved all but one day. The calculations have the five shortest periods "in order" highest to lowest readings.

I think we have a signal for bullishness on this one.

Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are included in the latest daily post above.

05/28/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 83, MinTrSz: 400, MaxTrSz: 40000, Vol 557954, AvTrSz: 6722
Min. Pr: 0.2540, Max Pr: 0.2660, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2593
# Buys, Shares: 47 385353, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2601
# Sells, Shares: 36 172601, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2574
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 2.23:1 (69.1% "buys"), DlyShts 132592 (23.76%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 76.82%

The FINRA data does not include an AH trade of 19.7K. Including it moves the FINRA-reported short percentage from 24.63% to 23.76%. If it's also added to short sales, the short volume moves to 152,292 and percentage moves to 27.29%.

This turned out to be a reasonable day with some improved volume and price still holding fairly well. Without one AH trade of 19.7K at $0.2546, VWAP would be $0.2595. Looking at that half-penny slip in VWAP while buy:sell is so strong indicates that sellers are still nervous while buyers are decidedly bullish about the risk:reward at these price levels. Maybe some price context will help. Note the predominance of the price >= $0.26.

$0.2540-$0.2546: 022700 shares, 04.07% of volume, VWAP $0.2545
$0.2550-$0.2599: 172600 shares, 30.93% of volume, VWAP $0.2578
$0.2600-$0.2624: 346001 shares, 62.01% of volume, VWAP $0.2600
$0.2650-$0.2659: 015898 shares, 02.85% of volume, VWAP $0.2656
$0.2660-$0.2660: 000755 shares, 00.14% of volume, VWAP $0.2660

In a comment yesterday, http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/1631091-axion-power-host/1890011-axion-power-concentrator-239-may-24-axion-power-reports-first-quarter-results-for-2013#comment-19339131, I wondered if there might be a larger buy order associated with the AH trade. However, looking at the prices above I don't see it would work as the market-maker would be selling to the buyer at a price lower than that at which the market-maker could accumulate. It's still possible if the MM accumulated over a few days, but I don't know the likelihood of that. It was also larger than what I would think is acceptable to try and manipulate price. I'm left with the conclusion that the most plausible cause is what MrI suggested - someone with a larger stake is unloading ATM.

This seems supported too by a generally small, but noticeable, sporadic jump in some "Dly Sht % of 'sells'". For a month now we've had generally elevated daily short sales and some larger values in the "Dly Sht % of 'sells'":
Mon. 04/22: 0.42% 4.90% 690.95% 39.86% 22.22%
Mon. 04/29: 5.98% 14.04% 17.33% 13.58% 150.50%
Mon. 05/06: 9.96% 9.15% 114.65% 53.10% 39.36%
Mon. 05/13: 33.94% 54.27% 29.90% 61.57% 104.44%
Mon. 05/20: 92.10% 132.60% 34.23% 55.97%

For context:
Jan Avg: 44.20%, min: 0.00%, max: 262.58%
Feb Avg: 20.90%, min: 2.88%, max: 55.65%
Mar Avg: 15.42%, min: 0.00%, max: 100.79%
Apr Avg: 40.63%, min: 0.00%, max: 690.95%
May Avg: 63.06%, min: 9.15%, max: 150.50%

The averages are not at alarming levels, meaning the "big uglies", or a reasonable facsimile thereof, are back in our markets, but this month's average is well above recent levels.

I noted in a comment, IIRC, that we had more large trades today. There were 17 >= 10K that comprised 69.38% of today's volume with a VWAP of $0.2597 with a range of $0.2550 (excluding the AH $0.2546) to $0.2601.

I don't think the sellers realize how much they might be giving up here. Oh well, nervousness is a common affliction.

Thanks to the larger blocks, average trade size is in the higher mid-range of what I believe is retail, a nice change from recent sizes. The averages for the buy:sell are looking quite nice. If the ratio holds up today we'll have an ordered progression of the averages, shorter higher than longer. All are back into normal ranges now.

My original inflection point calculations are beginning to shape up. Five of the six periods are showing a one-day improvement and with three of the five-day changes showing improvement. This hasn't passed through to the average daily change over five days yet though - only 2 show improvement. This is not surprising as we've just begun what may be a sustained improvement ... or not, based on recent behavior.

My newer version has only four of the six periods showing a one-day improvement and the change over five days has only one improving and the average change over five days has only two improving. Because this version considers additional factors, I think it is more likely telling the truth. I think we've gone from "nowhere fast" to slight weakening indicated. However, if we maintain good volume and buy:sell with little or no price weakening, this tendency will reverse.

Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.

05/24/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 49, MinTrSz: 131, MaxTrSz: 20000, Vol 161897, AvTrSz: 3304
Min. Pr: 0.2602, Max Pr: 0.2690, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2646
# Buys, Shares: 24 61509, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2657
# Sells, Shares: 25 100388, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2639
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:1.63 (38% "buys"), DlyShts 56184 (34.7%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 55.97%

For the second day in a row we had an AH trade, 6K, below the close. Manipulation is suspected. See this comment.

Average trade size continues to sit at the bottom of the barrel with the advent of the more active market-makers. I don't believe price is going anywhere fast while this condition holds. However, combined with the extremely low volume, it does present an opportunity for those that would like to manipulate price in either direction. I believe this because I think these small trade sizes indicate many fewer "normal" trade fills of size that would force market-makers to help maintain some price range that allowed them to fill larger orders and, thereby, make some money, as volume is their bread and butter. Sans the volume and with small trade sizes, a few orders of "size" away from the prevailing price range would entice the market-makers to move price to get the volume going.

The buy:sell remains in normal ranges and all the averages are there as well.

The daily short sales, on a percentage basis, look like they are working towards settling into ranges I believe are more normal, possibly leaving in the past the extremely low values seen recently. Having said that, if we see our recent more active market-makers exit stage-left, the percentages (likely?) would plummet back to single-digits unless some reasonable volume returned, and even that might not do it, depending on from where (which MMs?) the volume comes. But for now all the averages are moving towards what I think are normal, with the 10-day already in that area at 30.75%.

VWAPS are still holding up well, and might even be migrating towards the longer-term averages, albeit quite slowly. The 5, 10, 25, 50, 100 and 200-day averages are, respectively, $0.2612, $0.2548, $0.2498, $0.2602, $0.2908 and $0.2910.

My original experimental inflection point calculations continue their uncoordinated behavior. The one-day change has three periods improving and three deteriorating. The five-day change shows two improved and 4 deteriorated while the average rate of change in those have a three and three split. In summary, going nowhere fast and not indicative of overall weakening or strengthening. My newer version, which includes additional factors, also has the one-day change split three and three. The five-day changes in the periods has only one period showing improvement while five show increasing weakness. The average rate of change of those five-day periods has a split of 2 and 4 strengthening to weakening. The same summary - nowhere fast - applies.

Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above..

05/23/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 32, MinTrSz: 250, MaxTrSz: 10000, Vol 114349, AvTrSz: 3573
Min. Pr: 0.2550, Max Pr: 0.2690, VW Avg. Tr. Pr:0.2644
# Buys, Shares: 23 84950< VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2660
# Sells, Shares: 9 29399, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2599
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 2.89:1 (74.3% "buys"), DlyShts 33000 (28.86%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 112.25%

An AH trade of 5,100 shares at $0.26 doesn't appear on the FINRA daily short sales. Excluding this volume would yield a short percentage of 30.21%. If those shares are included and are also short sales the percentage short becomes 33.32%.

Note that VWAP made a nice bump up. This appears due to the sellers becoming much more disciplined as the number of changes to the ask price was substantially reduced from what is normally seen. From 11:13 through the close, the ask seemed to stay at or above $0.2689. But I didn't take near as many peeks today as normally. This seems to have caused a constant move up in the bids throughout the day during the times I took a look. This occurred with ATDF and NITE, two of our long-time "usual suspects" being at the front of the offers at the times I looked. A refreshing change.

Average trade size remains depressed, in the lower range of what I believe is retail trading. Regardless, the buy:sell was very positive, continuing to demonstrate what I believe is a perception of favorable risk/reward at these prices by the buyers. The action of the sellers makes me think that some of them may be changing their thinking too - I suspect that now they lean towards holding out for higher prices since the risk seems reduced. Maybe, I don't really know. Regardless, the buy:sell averages have all migrated back to near-normal levels and continue to move in that direction.

All six of my original experimental inflection point calculations showed one-day improvements. Four showed improvement in the change over five days. Four also showed improvement in the average rate of change over five days. The five-day calculation ha crossed above zero, but we know that one's a bit flaky and wee need to wait for the longer-term ones to improve enough to make "the pattern". My newer version has all six showing one-day improvement and, as with the original, the five-day calculation has moved above zero. But the change over five days has only four improving and the average change over five days only has two improving while four have deteriorated.

It's the falling volume that prevents signaling a bullish move right now.

Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.

05/22/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 39, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 20000, Vol 167469, AvTrSz: 4294
Min. Pr: 0.2520, Max Pr: 0.2650, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2598
# Buys, Shares: 17 74100, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2612
# Sells, Shares: 21 90869, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2586
# Unkn, Shares: 1 2500, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.2620
Buy:Sell 1:1.23 (44.2% "buys"), DlyShts 31100 (18.57%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 34.23%

My first note is regarding daily short sales because I don't want to overlook an apparent correlation. Our newer group of MMs were at the top of the heap on the ask much less frequently than in the recent prior days. ARCA and LAMP were in the best ask group only 4 times out of 13 peeks at the ask. ARCA had been best ask much more frequently in prior days. Today our old friends were ore commonly at the top, notably ATDF and CSTI. I think this gives credence to the guess that the increase in daily short sales were directly related to the new group of MMs and that the normal "players", for whatever reason, have a very low rate of daily short sales. My gut says ATDF takes short-term long positions and the other common market-makers are owned by brokers which hold the shares being sold. Both cases reduce the short flagging required by rule.

Another thought I draw from this is when we see these "other guys" show up, we can infer that there is some heavier selling possible. The hard fact is that a short sale flag can only be generated by the sale of stock.

Considering this, I think it is remarkable that price has held up so well and the buy:sell has been so much more normal than what we had been seeing. I think this implies that at these price levels the perception of value, and a good risk/reward scenario, is strong. If today is the first day of the recent sellers being out, not just taking a break, we might be pleasantly surprised shortly.

On to the mundane ...

With the "normal" MMs being predominate yesterday, average trade size was able to recover to what I believe to be the lower-middle range - another change to watch for depending on the presence of the newer group of MMs. The buy:sell also weakened a bit, but is still in the normal range. An early conclusion is that our "normal" MMs, keep the buy:sell skewed to the low side, for whatever reason. If they stay gone for a long period, I expect the averages for the buy: sell will move into a range below 30% again.

Given the above, I wouldn't be surprised to see the buy:sell continue to weaken, accompanied by a weakening in price. I can't say I feel fairly certain, but things do seem to suggest it is likely.

7 of the bid changes I spotted were increases and 8 were decreases (some "uncovered"). 4 of the asks increased (most "uncovered") and 7 were decreases. Concomitant with the exit of our new group of MMs, we seem to have lost some of our bullish behavior as the old group of MMs play their usual games.

My original experimental inflection point calculations seem to be gently trending, with time, to a slightly positive bias, away from the weakening slant. The one-day change on five of the six periods was positive and the five-day change had five of six positive too, as were the daily percentage average change for these. My newer version is quite contrarian though: five of six periods show a weaker one-day change with the five-day change have five weaker as well. The average percentage change for these has six of six weaker.

Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.

05/21/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 64, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 24999, Vol 185758, AvTrSz: 2902
Min. Pr: 0.2531, Max Pr: 0.2640, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2594
# Buys, Shares: 38 108966, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2599
# Sells, Shares: 20 65050, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2586
# Unkn, Shares: 6 11742, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.2592
Buy:Sell 1.68:1 (58.7% "buys"), DlyShts 86259 (46.44%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 132.60%

VWAP continues to hold up well. I listed a set yesterday, so I won't do it here gain. Interesting, to me, is an apparent correlation between a reducing average trade size as daily short sales remain elevated. I don't have clue about cause and effect, or which is which here, but maybe some mulling it over will yield something useful going forward. Later on that.

The changes in bids I spotted today had 12 increases and 5 decreases (some were "uncovered"). The asks had 6 increases (some "uncovered") and 11 decreases. Having the buy percentage where it is with this sort of activity suggests, to me, that buyers are seeing a good risk/reward scenario here. If sellers recognized the same thing ...

The average trade size is again very low and the daily short sales quite high, relative to levels over the last several months. The trend is remarkable and most easily discerned on the instablog chart. Part of the rise seen is due to using percentages. While trade volume declines but daily short sales volume remains relatively elevated, the percentage of short sales rises. This would seem to confirm a thought I expressed earlier, that the new cadre of MMs showing up were responsible for increased daily short sales, because before their appearance the percentage of daily short sales was relatively stable for quite a few months.

Knowing, generally, how these things work, it may also suggest my thoughts that some MMs were going short-term long, for trading advantage and profit, or otherwise had control of shares backing sell orders (owned by the broker holding the shares?) may have been correct. We'll never know, I'm sure. But we can be sure that one or more of the MMs newly seen do not have control of the shares being sold, either through a long position or ownership by the holding broker. Because I've been tracking some of these for a while in my peeks at the bid and ask changes, we may be able to predict some changes in daily short sales trend in the future as these MMs become (in)active in our market.

Possibly related is the change in the buy:sell ratio, which has been trending strongly up recently. This is also best seen on the charts, especially the buy percentage averages chart.

Five of the six periods of my original experimental inflection point calculations had positive one-day changes. The five-day change of these was evenly split with three improving (25, 50 and 200-day) and three weakening a bit (5, 10, and 100-day) while the average change/day for those were also split. This indecision is reflected in the squiggles on the chart.

My newer version has four of the six periods showing improvement in the one-day change and five of the six improving over a five-day period. The average daily change of the periods over five days showed improvement in five of the periods. Generally, my newer version is more bullish than the original version. I had mentioned a couple days back that it was in a state in which it could be easily induced to issue a signal of a move up. It remains so today. It is not signaling yet.

Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.

05/20/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 98, MinTrSz: 0, MaxTrSz: 17593, Vol 355550, AvTrSz: 3628
Min. Pr: 0.2510, Max Pr: 0.2615, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2575
# Buys, Shares: 63 208050, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2585
# Sells, Shares: 35 147500, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2561
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1.41:1 (58.5% "buys"), DlyShts 135850 (38.21%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 92.10%

VWAP continues to hold up well: $0.2372, $0.2446, $0.2592, $0.2599 and $0.2575. The trend has been long-enough that it has begun to show in the 5, 10 and 25-day averages, while the longer term ones, the 50, 100 and 200-day have yet to be affected: $0.2517, $0.2506, $0.2490, $0.2634, $0.2918 and $0.2921. Note how the three shorter-term averages are "in order" with the 5-day above the10-day, which is above the 25-day. In conjunction with the buy:sell action, there may be an approach to a rise going on. The buy percentages for the 10, 25, 50 and 100-day averages are showing a similar configuration: 48%, 0.44%, 0.38% and 0.42.

The bid/ask movements showed bid changes having 9 increases and 5 decreases (some "uncovered"), and ask changes showing 10 increases (some "uncovered") and 9 decreases. I couldn't see any strong trend of "late-day weakness" or any other pattern to the moves.

Average trade sizes continue to be down in the lower range of what I believe to be "retail" and I think is an effect of the entry of market-makers not commonly seen before the capital raise occurred: 5199, 4313, 4063, 3559, 4863, 4250, 5612, 4650, 4087 and 3628. This seems supported by the change in "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", which has moved higher recently, but nowhere near the levels of the heavy selling seen last year.

Feb Avg: 54.68%, min: 0.35%, max: 200.89%
Mar Avg: 49.86%, min: 0.70%, max: 252.30%
Apr Avg: 31.50%, min: 0.00%, max: 74.35%
May Avg: 62.73%, min: 0.00%, max: 398.94%

Then the Mega-C shares entered market? Note the hefty change in both the averages and maximums.

Jun Avg: Avg: 183.48%, min: 5.05%, max: 1607.50%
Jul Avg: 176.07%, min: 7.75%, max: 1273.20%

Sometime in August I began stating that I thought the larger sellers might be getting exhausted.

Aug Avg: 113.91%, min: 0.00%, max: 899.39%
Sep Avg: 56.67%, min: 3.01%, max: 252.39%
Oct Avg: 85.05%, min: 11.45%, max: 565.73%
Nov Avg: 51.96%, min: 3.53%, max: 259.67%
Dec Avg: 38.72%, min: 1.54%, max: 258.33%

============ 2013 ===============
Jan Avg: 44.20%, min: 0.00%, max: 262.58%
Feb Avg: 20.90%, min: 2.88%, max: 55.65%
Mar Avg: 15.42%, min: 0.00%, max: 100.79%
Apr Avg: 40.63%, min: 0.00%, max: 690.95%
May Avg: 56.17%, min: 9.15%, max: 150.50%

I believe some of this recent increase is a "pull" effect where the prices remaining better than sellers might have expected, but not substantially improving, has caused them to make the decision to get while the getting is good. This would also account for the recent entry of market-makers not seen for a long time.

Daily volumes, which spiked after the capital raise announcement, are trending towards the pre-announcement levels. The 10, 25, 50 and 100-day averages are, in thousands: 485, 374, 298 and 300. Daily short sales continue in a range that I expect are more normal than the extremely low levels we observed for a long time. This has continued long enough to affect the 10, 25, 50 and 100-day average percentages: 27.75%, 18.73%, 12.12% and 11.86%. On 4/23 they were 4.62%, 5.33%, 7.5% and 10%.

My original experimental inflection point calculations are, again, making another attempt at reduced weakening in their trends. Five of the six periods showed one-day improvement and the other, the 100-day, was unchanged, for all practical purposes. The five-day change in the periods had all showing improvement and the five-day rte of change of these had five of the six showing improvement. I do want to emphasize that these are only reductions in weakening, so far, and do not yet form the pattern that suggests an up move is imminent or in progress. It is a needed precursor though. My newer version, considering additional factors, has only two improvements in the one-day change, replicating yesterday's profile of being weaker than the original version. In the five-day change of these metrics, four are weaker, notably two of the three shorter-term ones. The five-day rate of change for these has five of the six weaker.

Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.

05/17/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 64, MinTrSz: 160, MaxTrSz: 15000, Vol 261558, AvTrSz: 4087
Min. Pr: 0.2500, Max Pr: 0.2640, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2599
# Buys, Shares: 40 157799, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2613
# Sells, Shares: 20 88760, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2573
# Unkn, Shares: 4 14999, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.2598
Buy:Sell 1.78:1 (60.3% "buys"), DlyShts 92700 (35.44%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 104.44%

Still holding up well. Prices and volumes, in thousands, for the last 10 days:
$0.2609 211.23, $0.2588 129.98, $0.2513 1143.06, $0.2492 304.71, $0.2466 270.48
$0.2417 778.10, $0.2372 590.69, $0.2446 0370.42, $0.2592 641.74, $0.2599 261.56.

With no exceptionally large trades today and the VWAP where it's at, relative to the low and high, I think we are seeing more bullishness than we might have expected.

I couldn't check as many bid and ask changes today but the activity there seems to be supporting a more bullish sentiment too. The bids increased eight times and decreased only four times. The asks increased seven times and decreased 5 times. The trend in trades was up through about 14:00 and then stayed flat until around 15:00, when some volatility came in and gave some increased highs, with lows staying right around those seen in the14:00 onward period. So we had early-day strength followed by late-day flat, mostly. Still a nice change from the long period of late-day weakness we used to see consistently.

Of special note is the continuing improvement in the averages of the buy:sell ratio, in percentages. All 4 averages, 10, 25, 50 and 100-day periods, are back in normal ranges, 47%, 42%, 37% and 42%, as the daily trend is trending around normal percentages: 54.4%, 58.4%, 57.4%, 37.4%, 0.346%, 42.3%, 29.4%, 43.2% and 60.3%.

Average trade size during this period of uncertainty has been low and continues low, with today's average trade size again in the low-mid-range of what I think is retail size. I'm beginning to think this is a normal side-effect of having more, and more active, participants, as evidenced by the cadre of newer market-maker participants we've seen. This reduced average trade size became more common with their appearance. This may be normal until we see another change in the market-makers participating, which might never happen. At some point I might have re-assess what is normal "retail" size.

Daily short sale percentages continue to trend up. The 10-day average has "spiked" to 24.44% from single-digit range 3/13-4/24. My feeling is that as long as the "new" market-makers are here we'll see these elevated levels, possibly heading to the levels I mentioned in this comment in one of JP's blogs.

http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/227454-john-petersen/1488051-big-changes-in-axion-s-finra-short-sale-ratios#comment-14196581

However, I do believe we would have to see volumes consistently higher, along with continued higher numbers of market-makers participating, to get there. Sans that, I'm gravitating to somewhere in the ~30% range as reasonable and likely. When volume really comes in, then those higher percentages mentioned in my comment seem more likely.

My original experimental inflection point calculations continue mixed, although they are turning a bit less negative right now. 4 of the six periods show a one-day reducing weakness, as do the 5-day changes in 4 of the six periods and the average rate of change for those metrics. My newer version, designed to consider additional factors, is slightly less positive one the one day change, although still in a state that could be easily induced to signal a move up. Only 3 of the 6 periods show a one-day improvement. The 5-day change in those periods has 4 improving along with 5 of the 6 average changes over the five days showing improvement.

Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.

05/15/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 66, MinTrSz: 300, MaxTrSz: 21600, Vol 370415, AvTrSz: 5612
Min. Pr: 0.2390, Max Pr: 0.2500, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2446
# Buys, Shares: 20 108750, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2450
# Sells, Shares: 46 261665, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2444
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:2.41 (29.4% "buys"), DlyShts 78250 (21.12%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 29.90%

Of the 17 peeks I took at the bid changes, 7 were increases and 8 were decreases (some just results of being "uncovered"). This was less bullish than in the last few days. Of the 15 ask changes I viewed, 6 were increases (some due to "uncovering") and 7 were decreases, again much less bullish than the lat few days.

Regardless, VWAP has held up: $0.2492, $0.2466, $0.2417, $0.2372 and $0.2446 over the 5-day span.

Daily short sales is still a bit elevated, but somewhat lower. This seems to be due to less participation, as best I could tell, by the newer cadre of market-makers that appeared recently.

Average trade size did move up again and is in what I believe is the mid-range of retail. Buy percentage dropped below it's averages again, supporting the less bullishness assessment of the bid/ask activity.

All this is reflected in my original inflection point calculations, which weakened again, this time in six of six periods. 5 of the six periods increased weakness in the 5-day change and 6 of six had increased weakness in the average 5-day rate of change. However, the newer version disagrees with 5 of six periods showing a reduced weakness and 5 of six periods improving in the five-day change and six of six improving in the average change over five days.

Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.

05/14/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 139, MinTrSz: 200, MaxTrSz: 56300, Vol 590688, AvTrSz: 4250
Min. Pr: 0.2210, Max Pr: 0.2510, VW Avg. Tr. Pr:0.2372
# Buys, Shares: 82 249868, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2422
# Sells, Shares: 52 328820, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2331
# Unkn, Shares: 5 12000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.2473
Buy:Sell 1:1.32 (42.3% "buys"), DlyShts 178460 (30.21%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 54.27%

From 9:48's $0.221 onward, the trend was up all day. The 20 peeks I took at bid changes supported this behavior with 14 being increases and 6 being decreases (some via "uncovering" as better bids were taken out). As with yesterday, the offers responded, with some delay. Of the 17 offers I viewed, 10 were increases (some from being uncovered) and 6 were decreases. From 14:00 onward, only 1 offer was decreased while 6 increased and no bids were decreased. This continues what I noted yesterday, that "late-day weakness" had been replaced with "late-day strengthening".

Although folks saw another low down at the $0.22 area, a little context should put it in proper perspective. Note that ~40% of the day's volume went at >= $0.24 on day's volume that was "healthy", approaching double the 25-day average I track of ~323K through yesterday.

$0.2210-$0.2210: 066300 shares, 11.22% of vol, VWAP $0.2210 2 trades, 10K, 56K 9:36/7
$0.2275-$0.2290: 006000 shares, 01.02% of vol, VWAP $0.2278 2 trades, 5k, 1K
$0.2300-$0.2349: 189428 shares, 32.07% of vol, VWAP $0.2321
$0.2350-$0.2390: 088700 shares, 15.02% of vol, VWAP $0.2368
$0.2400-$0.2449: 111160 shares, 18.82% of vol, VWAP $0.2420
$0.2450-$0.2499: 017600 shares, 02.98% of vol, VWAP $0.2470
$0.2500-$0.2510: 111500 shares, 18.88% of vol, VWAP $0.2501

We saw a 100K order today, this time on the bid from ATDF. There's apparently a lot of folks that see the financing completion and upcoming quarterly report as very bullish. It's a damn good thing because the pessimism of the inhabitants of the APCs would drive "the car company that shall not be named" into the ground. :-))

Market-makers had to work hard again today because even with that 56K trade and a sprinkling of some 10K-20K+ trades, average trade size again came in at the low side of what I think is retail. The buy:sell continues to improve, today getting above the 50-day average and right in with the 25 and 100-day averages.

The daily short sales continue at the elevated levels begun when the new cadre of more active market-makers appeared.

Five of my six original experimental inflection point calculations showed increased weakness. The rate of change is is mixed among the periods with the 5, 10 and 200-periods improving and the others weakening. The near-term improvement may offer some hope. My newer version has 5 of the six periods worsening. However, four of the periods are showing a reduced rate of weakening, including the 10, 25, 50 and 100-period metrics.

Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.

05/13/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 160, MinTrSz: 200, MaxTrSz: 30000, Vol 778100, AvTrSz: 4863
Min. Pr: 0.2350, Max Pr: 0.2500, VW Avg. Tr. Pr:0.2417
# Buys, Shares: 75 269478, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2419
# Sells, Shares: 74 458222, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2415
# Unkn, Shares: 11 50400, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.2422
Buy:Sell 1:1.70 (34.6% "buys"), DlyShts 155500 (19.98%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 33.94%

Daily short sales are still relatively elevated, compared to recent months, and I expect they will continue as long as we have the unusual market-makers here. There's a possibility that they are here "forever", and short sales will remain elevated. But for now I think we are just in an exceptional period and the sellers using these market makers will eventually get exhausted and we'll likely see shorts reduce.

Average trade size looks to be mid-range for retail and buy:sell is around the normal range again, but still lower than I would like to see - I suspect there's still some more selling to do, but maybe at falling volume now. This may help price hold in this range if my guess is correct. I didn't see any exceptionally large offers on the asks.

A change in behavior has occurred - what used to be late-day weakness has become late-day strengthening these last two days. I suspect some of this is a result of ATDF having some competition from LAMP, UBSS, CSTI and CDEL on the bids. This apparently is noticed by (the now more astute?) sellers that come with the new market-makers in the fray as the peeks I take at the market aperiodically show a lot more increases on the asks than used to be seen. ATDF is no longer trying to jump ahead of every ask. Let's hope this newer behavior continues.

I'm hoping that this dip lower with high volume is signaling the end of the downward pressure, which is one thing I mentioned I thought needed to occur before we could stabilize and then start moving up. I'm on shaky ground here with so much apparent negative sentiment though.

It's as if folks didn't see the 8-K's restriction on selling (no more than 15% of daily volume) placed on the note holders if they take shares. Not quite as good as Quercus, but still it helps if they don't all convert and sell simultaneously. It's not a big positive, but it's better than a sharp stick in the eye.

My original inflection point calculations continue mixed, not nearing any signal. They continue to suggest weakness, with a small increase in it. With the volume and lower buy percentage the last two days, this makes sense. My newer version is more decisive - everything agrees that weakness is dominant and not suggesting any reduction in downward movement yet.

Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.

05/10/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 76, MinTrSz: 200, MaxTrSz: 12500, Vol 270484, AvTrSz: 3559
Min. Pr: 0.2401, Max Pr: 0.2500, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2466
# Buys, Shares: 32 101250, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2480
# Sells, Shares: 43 168834, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2457
# Unkn, Shares: 1 400, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.2480
Buy:Sell 1:1.67 (37.4% "buys"), DlyShts 66455 (24.57%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 39.36%

Today continued to show activity by market-makers relatively new to us, as noted yesterday. The most aggressive on the offer side were ARCA and CSTI, with ATDF surrendering it's "We're # 1" position. ATDF did occasionally get in front, along with PERT and CDEL, but they were pikers compared to those first two. As might be expected, based on our recent observations of their effect on daily short sales, the short percentage continued to be elevated compared to recent norms.

This apparently also affects average trade size - it's at a level I consider to be in the bottom area of retail size. The effect filters through to the share price as we continue a slow slide downward even with buy percentage being around normal ranges, as seen in the 10, 25, 50 and 100-day averages: 49%, 39%, 36% and 41% respectively. VWAP is pretty much following average trade size: $0.2609, $0.2588, $0.2513, $0.2492 and $0.2466.

I am heartened that, apparently, buyers are seeing a good risk/reward here - I expected a bit faster slide downward with these new market-makers entering the fray. I will be looking for a volume spike on a down move as another potential reversal point, but I really don't expect it before the quarterly report. I suspect that VWAP is holding up as well as it has because of the possibility of good news in that event, although I've become more jaded on my outlook on those Axion events. If I don't hear presentations typical of "commercial enterprises", I'll be quite negative.

My original experimental inflection point calculations gave back some of the gains on four of the six periods. My newer version also weakened - 5 periods weakened.

Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.

05/09/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 75, MinTrSz: 160, MaxTrSz: 29400, Vol 304708, AvTrSz: 4063
Min. Pr: 0.2451, Max Pr: 0.2592, VW Avg. Tr. Pr:0.2492
# Buys, Shares: 43 174978, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2503
# Sells, Shares: 31 129380, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2477
# Unkn, Shares: 1 350, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.2540
Buy:Sell 1.35:1 (57.4% "buys"), DlyShts 68700 (22.55%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 53.10%

The first "bad sign" I want to note is the deterioration in average trade size: 7978, 5559, 5199, 4313 and 4063 - we are in the lower portion what I believe to be retail. This combined with the deterioration in VWAPs, $0.2563, $0.2609, $0.2588, $0.2513 and $0.2492 doesn't bode well going forward, near-term. Add in the continued higher levels of daily short sales - a significant increase from what we had been seeing - and I'm fairly pessimistic. A note about those short sales ...

As mentioned recently, they seem to be associated with the appearance of some market-makers that had not been that active for some long time in the recent past. Our first spikes were 4/24 and 4/25 (0.4147% and 0.3185%), but don't seem related to a change in my observed market-maker composition - the "usual suspects" were doing the usual things. We then dropped back into recently-normal ranges. From 5/3 forward, we had a more frequent elevated levels: 41.42%, 05.17%, 04.17%, 47.22% and 22.55%. On that date we saw the 100K offers to sell come in (UBSS and later CDEL?) and two additional changes: some normally "quiet" market-makers that just sat on an ask, for the most part, began getting more aggressive at trying to be the best offer on the sell side; we saw some market-makers normally not seen recently enter the fray - some on both sides of the trade (suggesting increased short sales were more likely?). The changed behavior, more aggressive on the offer side, included such as CSTI, TEJS, UBSS (they had also been aggressive a couple times in past months), ... The "new entrants" included LAMP (mostly aggressive on the bid side), AABA and ARCA (both active exclusively on the offer?), ASCM and VFIN (seen infrequently before this). I feel that the new market-makers account for most of the short sales increase as we didn't see much variation often before they entered. I think they are handling shares for brokers that don't have their own market-maker, which would require short flags if the shares were held at the broker at the time the market-maker made the sale. Some additional volume may be from the market-makers that became more aggressive. We don't know, because of lack of aggressive activity in the past, if their sells would have resulted in short flags.

A concerning thing at the moment is the change in the "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" metric, which had been at very low levels since ... last August? Today the sequence looks like this - note the averages:
Aug Avg: 113.91%, min: 0.00%, max: 899.39%
Sep Avg: 56.67%, min: 3.01%, max: 252.39%
Oct Avg: 85.05%, min: 11.45%, max: 565.73%
Nov Avg: 51.96%, min: 3.53%, max: 259.67%
Dec Avg: 38.72%, min: 1.54%, max: 258.33%

============ 2013 ===============
Jan Avg: 44.20%, min: 0.00%, max: 262.58%
Feb Avg: 20.90%, min: 2.88%, max: 55.65%
Mar Avg: 15.42%, min: 0.00%, max: 100.79%
Apr Avg: 40.63%, min: 0.00%, max: 690.95%

The progression of the average through the first part of May might be concerning.
May Avg: 17.33%, min: 17.33%, max: 17.33%
May Avg: 15.45%, min: 13.58%, max: 17.33%
May Avg: 60.47%, min: 13.58%, max: 150.50%
May Avg: 47.84%, min: 9.96%, max: 150.50%
May Avg: 40.10%, min: 9.15%, max: 150.50%
May Avg: 52.53%, min: 9.15%, max: 150.50%
May Avg: 52.97%, min: 9.15%, max: 150.50%

Note that May is quite a bit higher than the recent trend. I don't expect returns to the ranges when we had the certificated holders selling, nor when we had the "big uglies", but I do think it's reflecting increased bearish sentiment in a cadre of holders that had not be actively selling over the last many months.

Offsetting that apparent bearish behavior, so far, is the buy percentage behavior: 37.8%, 24.8%, 72.5%, 4.81%, 54.4%, 58.4% and 57.4%. This has resulted in improvements in the three shorter-term periods in my original experimental inflection point calculations, with the 5-day moving above zero. However, even the recent volume spikes haven't been sufficient to strongly positively affect the longer-term calculations, but for the 100-day. So they are not shaping up, yet, to signal any price improvement.

My newer version, sensitive to additional factors, is similar in the three shorter-term periods, but does show improvement in two of the three longer-term calculations. They don't signal a move up, but suggest that the price deterioration rate is weakening.

Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.

05/08/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 265, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 25000, Vol 1143057, AvTrSz: 4313
Min. Pr: 0.2300, Max Pr: 0.2650, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2513
# Buys, Shares: 178 667277, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2504
# Sells, Shares: 88 460780, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2523
# Unkn, Shares: 3 15000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.2575
Buy:Sell 1.45:1 (58.4% "buys"), DlyShts 539744 (47.22%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 114.65%

Rough day trying to keep up. Add in Etrade duplication of data, ADVFN dropping data, me trying to re-construct it all ...

Just note the trade sizes and lower VWAP with reasonably balanced buy:sell. Mixed trader and investor reactions for sure.

No further comment for now. I'll do it tonight. ... Tonight is here. Below not in the concentrator.

The daily short volume and percentage are also notable at 539.7K and 47.22% respectively.

The most notable things about today's action, besides the volume and daily short sales, was the number of market-maker IDs that popped up that were either new to me here or hadn't been all that active, in the recent past, some jostling for top position on the bid or ask. These included LAMP, who had recently appeared and been aggressive on the bid side, ASCM, CSTI (had recently been hanging around at prices far from the best), ARCA, PERT (a bit more aggressive than usual) and AABA (new here). I believe these appeared as a result of folks making decisions based on the capital raise to buy and sell aggressively based on their perception of the "goodness" or "badness" of the financing and the implications for business success moving forward. DOH!

Based on the changes in the bids and asks during the day, many of the market-makers brought sellers with them that had shares held at the broker, which didn't own the market-maker making the trades. This causes a short-sale flag on each share sold under these conditions. As folks get out of their positions over the next few days, I expect to see the volume reduce, market-makers seen to return to the more-or-less normal "usual suspects", and the daily short sales to return to the recent very low levels.

There will likely be a smaller volume and short spike in a few days as some folks trying to sell run for the fire exit after awaiting too high a price for the market sentiment.

Of the 17 peeks I had at changed bid prices during the frenetic activity, 9 were bid increases and 6 were decreases (some due to "uncovering"). Of the 24 ask price changes, 14 were increases (many due to being "uncovered") and 9 were decreases. Both bids and asks were mixed in their trends, generally, varying in both directions throughout the day. It appeared that people were both bullish and bearish on the financing deal and resulted in a lot of trading without as much price variation as one might have expected.

The average trade size, which dropped in to the lower-middle area of what I believe is retail trading, shows how hard the market-makers had to work and the frequency of sellers and buyers adjusting to the market. There were 265 trades, exceptionally high when compared to the 41 average of 4/1-5/7. If we take out the 174 of 4/29 (just prior to the supposed "close the doors" date), the average is 36.

The buy percentage suggests some bullish sentiment is out there, but we don't know if it will be sufficiently enough long-lived to overcome the sellers with a move lower. We'll just have to watch as things develop of the next few days. There's also the risk that the buyers may recognize the sellers' desperation to exit and begin backing down the bids, creating a self-reinforcing feedback loop - a slow "death spiral". Let's hope that doesn't develop, although it has been typical behavior of our "usual suspects". Maybe the new players in the market will short-circuit that behavior.

Speaking of "buys", the 25, 50 and 100-day averages are back in normal territory.

Worth noting here, I think, is the spread between the low and the VWAP and high - these latter two be in close proximity to each other. I think this suggests that bullishness might be a bit stronger than the pure numbers suggest - maybe a break down of the ranges will reveal something.

$0.2300-$0.2300: 010000 shares, 00.87% of volume, VWAP $0.2300
$0.2350-$0.2399: 020000 shares, 01.75% of volume, VWAP $0.2375
$0.2400-$0.2449: 266850 shares, 23.35% of volume, VWAP $0.2415
$0.2450-$0.2499: 156397 shares, 13.68% of volume, VWAP $0.2478
$0.2499-$0.2549: 280250 shares, 24.52% of volume, VWAP $0.2519
$0.2550-$0.2599: 237610 shares, 20.79% of volume, VWAP $0.2573
$0.2600-$0.2640: 179450 shares, 15.70% of volume, VWAP $0.2623
$0.2650-$0.2650: 002500 shares, 00.22% of volume, VWAP $0.2650

This appears to suggest that ~80% of buyers think >=$0.24 and <$0.26 is about right. It might also suggest that the sellers were not resolute in hanging tough for higher prices. As time passes, I suspect sellers may weaken a bit.

On my original inflection point calculations, the degree of weakening is reducing. Nothing more positive than that ATM. On the newer version, it's telling what I believe to be the truth, because it has additional factors. It says there is continued weakening with little change in the rate, except for the 5-day calculation.

Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.

05/07/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 25, MinTrSz: 1128, MaxTrSz: 12183, Vol 129978, AvTrSz: 5199
Min. Pr: 0.2560, Max Pr: 0.2625, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2588
# Buys, Shares: 13 70728, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2599
# Sells, Shares: 12 59250, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2574
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1.19:1 (54.4% "buys"), DlyShts 5424 (4.17%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 9.15%

VWAP and volume, in thousands, since the 4/29 spike down:
$0.2300 407.90
$0.2585 301.63
$0.2492 184.55
$0.2563 183.50
$0.2609 211.23
$0.2588 129.98

Average trade size is in what I think is in the lower middle of retail size, the buy:sell is balanced and the averages for it have moved back into normal range. Volume and daily short sales continue to return to recently-normal very low levels. VWAPs, lows and highs are at the levels where we spent some time running "flat". Awaiting the quarterly report, I wouldn't be surprised to see us run flat again, or make a small move down. Any traders that bought on the spike down that haven't yet sold should be releasing shares into the market as there have been buyers at higher prices at low volumes. The sellers have been somewhat disciplined, but I expect that will break down soon as the ATDF folks return to form, which they've begun to do recently.

The peeks I took at bid/asks shows bid changes were 10:3 increase vs. decreases while asks were 6:4 in favor of decreases. The bid action was helped, again but briefly, by folks on LAMP, ATDF and NITE jostling, but it began later in the day and was of shorter duration than the prior days where this was seen.

My original experimental inflection points gave back the small gains - not surprising with the volume and little price movement. So they don't portend anything of note ATM. The newer version is a bit more negative with all periods showing weaker values and the 5-day average changes showing weakening improvement and the 5-day period actually going slightly negative on the average change.

Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.

05/06/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 38, MinTrSz: 200, MaxTrSz: 13200, Vol 211234, AvTrSz: 5559
Min. Pr: 0.2550, Max Pr: 0.2698, VW Avg. Tr. Pr:0.2609
# Buys, Shares: 16 101610, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2623
# Sells, Shares: 22 109624, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2596,
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:1.08 (48.1% "buys"), DlyShts 10924 (5.17%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 9.96%

Not a bad day. VWAP +1.8% and average trade size right in the middle of retail, and flattening as expected, with no excessively larger trades. Volume was a bit on the light side - not unexpected as we wait for the usual and for a certainty of direction in price. Volume is lower than the 10, 25, 50 and 100-day averages of 318K, 270K, 229K and 292K respectively.

The buy:sell continues to recover into the normal ranges and the daily short sales has dropped back into the lower ranges seen recently, suggesting that one more "mini-ugly" selling through CDEL(?) is (almost?) out - we think there was 22K left (may not have been tied to the seller of the 76K the prior day?) and today we saw $0.27x20K that never moved. The buy averages continue the march towards more normal levels as well: the 10-day is up around the 50% mark and 25 and 50-day average should be inside 35% in another week or less, if current behavior continues.

Of 18 bid changes I happened to catch, 11 were increases and 5 were decreases. Keep in mind some of these are just bids being masked and unmasked by activity with better bids coming and going. Of the 11 asks, 5 were increases and 5 were decreases. So the buyers seem to be getting more positive the last few days and the sellers are now starting to become more stingy.

My original experimental inflection points are really trying to form a signal, but lack the volume, The five and ten-day calculations are quite near crossing above zero, but the lack of volume leaves the longer-term calculations in the dumps, with only the 25-day beginning to respond. The trend to "form up" is there, but needs volume along with the trend in price. My newer version, sensitive to some additional factors, is, again, more positive than the original. All periods are moving "the right direction" for now.

Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.

05/03/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 23, MinTrSz: 500, MaxTrSz: 31000, Vol 183500, AvTrSz: 7978
Min. Pr: 0.2500, Max Pr: 0.2598, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2563
# Buys, Shares: 16 133000, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2584
# Sells, Shares: 7 50500, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2505
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 2.63:1 (72.5%), DlyShts 76000 (41.42%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 150.50%

The most notable thing, I think, about today is what I noted in a comment: "Today's daily short sales were 76K, 41.42% short, exactly the amount that the seller at CDEL offering the 98K unloaded - 22K more to go ... if they don't have more they were holding back to try and avoid affecting price too much". They were all "buys", with trades hitting the ask. We don't often get to see so clearly exactly where daily short sales action is coming from and correlate it to the offers and trade prices.

BTW, that 98K offer was originally entered at an optimistic $0.28 along with 9K from ETRF. Sometime between 10:31 and 11:14 that 98K ask was changed to $0.259 and left there.

There were no excessively large trades today, although we had a couple in the 30K area accounting for 33.24% of volume. They went off, along with most of the other trades, above the middle of the day's range and so didn't really move VWAP excessively. They did have an effect on average trade size, because we only had 23 trades, and the buy:sell ratio.

Without those two trades we get a maximum trade size of 20K and an average trade size of 5,883 - right in the middle of what I believe is retail and just above the 50 and 100-day averages of 5,332 and 5,684. The buy: sell would be 1.43:1, 58.8%, a decent number, especially compared to the prior two days percentages of 37.8 and 24.8. This ration has been improving enough that the 10-day average has moved back into normal range and the 25-day is heading there.

I think all this suggests that investors and traders are gaining a little confidence that Tuesday's spike down was a near-term bottom and risk/reward, for traders and investors alike, was more favorable.

All this was on a Friday, often a do-nothing day. Instead we got a VWAP move of +2.38% without those two larger trades and +2.83% with them. Definitely not a "do-nothing" day.

My original experimental inflection point calculations are starting to shape up on the shorter periods, but we are working with low volume yet. For that reason, I view the slightly positive movements with a jaundiced eye for now. The newer version, which includes factors not in the original, is more positive and, I think, is near to signaling the start of a move up.

Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.

05/02/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 32, MinTrSz: 250, MaxTrSz: 50000, Vol 184550, AvTrSz: 5767
Min. Pr: 0.2410, Max Pr: 0.2600, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2492
# Buys, Shares: 16 45700, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2575
# Sells, Shares: 16 138850, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2465
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:3.04 (37.8% "buys"), DlyShts 18850 (10.21%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 13.58%

I had mentioned somewhere that I thought we had a few traders in and it would take a few days for them to exit. I think I mentioned that it looked like most of the recent "mini-uglies" were gone too. Today seems to support those conclusions. Our one large ask was from CDEL, $0.28x98K. It was well out of the trading range and had no impact. Our only larger trades occurred near the open, $0.2410x50K at the open and $0.2500x33K at 9:33. Both were "sells".

These two trades were 81.7% of the day's volume. They had very heavy effect on the metrics for the day. I mention a couple of those affected below.

Of the 21 peeks at the bids, 12 were increases and 9 were decreases. Of the 17 asks, 7 were increases and 9 were decreases. As mentioned before, some of this movement comes just from one price level getting exhausted, uncovering prices at another level when trading occurs. What is interesting is that the asks showed weakness in the morning and had more increases starting at 13:30 - 5 of 7 subsequent changes were increases of the ask. Bids were similar with 9 of 11 bid changes being increases subsequent to 12:45. With VWAP very near the mid-point of the price range, a close at the high ( a real trade too of 3,250 shares, not just a "lure") and late-day strengthening, I think this also supports the thesis that the "mini-uglies" are mostly gone and there are some traders that are taking some profit.

Average trade size finished right at the 100-day average size and seems to be flattening out, as I recently mentioned I though it should. It's smack-dab in the middle of what I believe to be "retail" trading sizes. Without those two larger trades, we get 3,385 - very low and at the bottom of "retail" I think. Buy: sell was influenced by those two trades as well - it's "decent", even with those two larger "sells".

Without them we get 1:1.22 (45% "buys") and VWAP would move to $0.2530.

Daily short volume and percentage seems to be continuing its retreat to levels John noted had become the new normal. This also suggest the exit of at least one "mini-ugly" was real because when we (apparently) know he was selling we had spikes in the short volume. My SWAG was that his shares were sold through a market-maker not controlled by the broker holding the shares, forcing flagging as "short sales". With that seller having stated he was exiting, it appears his word was good. I believe he was representative of the other "mini-uglies".

In summary, I believe after a few more days of traders taking profits, there's a really decent chance that the investors can take control and move price to the next level before the quarterly results, bringing in the next round of profit-takers, if there are any.

"The Never-ending Story".

My original inflection point calculations are still in disarray and, with the effect of those two larger trades, behaving as we would expect - a bit weaker. Ditto on the new version. But I wouldn't assign any significance yet because the VWAP and volume without those two trades would be so much different.

Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.

05/01/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 44, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 26466, Vol 301628, AvTrSz: 6855
Min. Pr: 0.2400, Max Pr: 0.2795, VW Avg. Tr. Pr:0.2585
# Buys, Shares: 21 114097, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2610
# Sells, Shares: 23 187531, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2570
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:1.64 (37.8% "buys"), DlyShts 32500 (10.77%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 17.33%

Well, things are starting to normalize: no outrageously large trades today; only one large offer seen (CDEL ask $0.28x98K entered around 13:00); average trade size (even with no really large ones) is right at the middle-high range of what I think is retail and the trend should start to flatten out from its rise now; buy:sell starting to work more consistently in normal ranges; daily shorts a little higher than recent trend, but not excessively so; volume is moving back closer to recent norms.

Interesting: the high was exactly at the 50-day SMA; the mid-range of the day was $0.2598, the VWAP and our close ($0.261) both near there, normal behavior in many ways; of 13 bids checked during the day there were 7 increases and 3 decreases while the 20 asks checked included 4 increases and 15 decreases (started at 10:28 and continued predominately down throughout the day - very normal behavior); two consecutive days of higher highs and lows; closed above my medium-term descending resistance - another close above would confirm a break out, especially if volume remains near recent norms.

My original inflection point calculations are in disarray, but showing the ending of weakening. My newer version is giving signals that there is more than that going on - the earliest hints that a move up may be in progress have appeared, but it will take a few days to see if the pattern completes.

Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.

Disclosure: I am long AXPW.OB.

Additional disclosure: I am very experimental, still learning TA and am not very conservative in my trading. But I am conservative regarding my confidence in what I'm learning and my attempts to share with others what I think I see coming. Your own DD is mandatory.

AXPW: Intra-Day Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting 3/1/2013

I've been manually collecting this data for a year now while volume was low and it was therefore reasonable to do so. I'll stop when it gets too large unless I can craft a mechanized capture of most of the stuff.

I've captured enough data now that I can reasonably expect to be able to detect patterns on the charts that may signal, somewhat reliably, when price moves are about to occur. To help more easily identify any useful patterns, I've made an instablog, Axion Power International (AXPW) 2/13/2012 And Forward One Year Experimental Charts Snapshots. I've also added some lines to them that may assist in this. For anybody with an interest, I welcome any suggestions and/or help.

I've also put up AXPW Fails-to-deliver Charts 2/11/2013, which I hope will convince folks that John has been correct in asserting the "big uglies" are out of our lives, at least for now.

I'll update this instablog daily as long as I can for anybody that might find it useful. The charts will stay near the top and the text updates expressing my most recent thoughts will follow after the charts.

I've arranged the chart segments in this instablog to put what I think are related stuff close together.

This is the eighth installment of the original "AXPW: Some Intra-Day Trade Charting" instablogs I've started doing on Seeking Alpha. The others grew, as I added daily commentary and FINRA data, to the point I was afraid the load time might become an irritant for folks that have less internet bandwidth or older computing equipment so I've started rolling to a new one aperiodically.

Versions subsequent to the original (latest to oldest) can be found here.

AXPW: Intra-Day Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting 02/01/2013

AXPW: Intra-Day Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting 12/15/2012

AXPW: Intra-Day Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting 11/14/2012

AXPW: Intra-Day Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting

AXPW: Intra-Day Trade Charting 9/6/2012 - Xx/xx/2012

AXPW: Intra-Day Trade Charting 7/7/2012 - 9/5/2012

In the below chart note that the volume is inverted to enhance readability! Be aware when you view it!

(right-click and open in new tab, position cursor over image to be able to zoom and scroll)

The following is a modified inflection point calculation with a price chart for comparison. Note that the false bullish moves and contrary moves of the 5-day on my original has been eliminated.

The inflection points are calculated differently from the original above. More work to do, this is a start, hopefully.

I've identified some changes I want to try on the new inflection point calculations but haven't had time to implement them yet. I'll work them in over time after a little experimentation.

Comments and further suggestions welcome.

(right-click and open in new tab, position cursor over image to be able to zoom and scroll)

In all the charts above I had to:
- estimate 3/27 buy:sell ratio because I couldn't get ADVFN screen-shots that day,
- omit 3/28 data due to garbage from the ADVFN feed.
- estimate the buy:sell for the first 28 trades of 11/26 as the ADVFN feed did not properly classify then because the bid/ask was missing. I put all the $0.26xx trades below $0.2650 as sells and ones at or above $0.2650 as buys. This was 41% of the days volume, 227,698 shares.

Continuing tracking the "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection point calculations values are now only in the latest daily comment - attempting to keep things shorter for faster loading.

04/30/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 67, MinTrSz: 200, MaxTrSz: 101000, Vol 407902, AvTrSz: 6088
Min. Pr: 0.2101, Max Pr: 0.2549, VW Avg. Tr. Pr:0.2300
# Buys, Shares: 39 244035, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2312
# Sells, Shares: 25 155867, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2287
# Unkn, Shares: 3 8000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.2210
Buy:Sell 1.57:1 (59.8% "buys"), DlyShts 21880 (5.36%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 14.04%

Well, a good day for several reasons. First, it appears that the combination of the quarterly reporting announcement, apparent near exhaustion of the bigger sellers and low price encouraged investors and/or traders to buy as prices began to recover, being up as much as ~20% intra-day. Even with some typical late-day weakness and maybe at least one big seller (a 101K "buy" made from that seller at $0.23), we saw decent volume, decent buy:sell, decent activity in "negotiation" on the bid/ask and a close of +12.79%.

Along with the 101K "buy", we had a 50K "sell" at $0.24. These two order combined skewed several metrics. The average trade size without them would be 3,834, at the lower range of what I think is retail trading areas. The buy:sell would drop to 1.35:1 (55.7% "buys") and my VWAP would hit $0.2281. But all this is just for a little context and doesn't change my view of a good day. One reason is ...

I captured 24 peeks at changes in the bids and 16 looks at the asks. Nineteen bids were moves up, some due to one price level exhaustion uncovering hidden ones from a particular market-maker. Only 4 were moves lower. On the asks eight were up and 4 were moves lower. In aggregate, a nice change from so many recent days.

The other thing that made it nice is that we got what I expected, which always gives me the "warm fuzzies". Price rebounded to hit above $0.25 during the day and the evidence of big sellers was, at least temporarily, reduced. We still have someone either taking profits or cutting losses or ... but the daily short sales moved back down to what's been more common recently. Since I believed the spike in that during the last few days was linked to one particular seller, I think this says at least that one was not active today.

Another "as expected" (or at least should've been) is topping at previous points of significance during down trends and during churn - $0.25 (12/29/11) , $0.253 (9/28/12), $0.252 (10/1/12), $0.255 (10/22/12, 4/2/13). This tells us that we do have some traders in the market. I'll be looking for signs of more investors in the market going forward.

I'm running late, so I'll stop here and get this and the charts up in the instablog later today.

Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points omitted from the concentrator.

Rolling 5-day inflection point calculation aggregate percentage change (now abbreviated):
******* ******* *5 Day** *10 Day * * 25Day ** 50 Day **100Day* 200 Day
04/02 5 Day -0272.87 -0013.47 -0289.62 -1136.10 -0560.90 -0324.10
04/03 5 Day -0459.16 +0049.98 -0390.46 -0597.84 -0417.88 -0260.85
04/04 5 Day -0524.33 -0105.07 -0582.60 -0603.25 -0349.86 -0122.43
04/05 5 Day -0678.86 -0440.28 -0751.67 -1530.15 -0400.68 -0508.48
04/08 5 Day -0112.76 -0515.05 -0542.01 -0370.79 -0068.54 -0383.27
04/09 5 Day -0051.64 -0324.51 -0723.52 -0184.13 +0174.38 -0700.78
04/10 5 Day -0090.99 -0550.15 -0663.32 -0363.83 -0276.88 -0818.75
04/11 5 Day +0217.47 -0306.86 -0415.28 -0254.67 -0174.37 -1000.07
04/12 5 Day +0592.58 -0086.28 -0214.43 -0070.91 -0084.02 -0855.51
04/15 5 Day +0307.69 +0194.93 -0262.98 -0278.18 -0329.85 -0953.90
04/16 5 Day +0197.89 +0146.25 -0064.73 -0434.10 -0615.84 -0938.44
04/17 5 Day +0231.94 +0140.95 -0103.53 -0467.08 -0620.02 -0882.06
04/18 5 Day -0146.72 +0070.75 -0278.12 -0585.89 -1042.04 -1017.25
04/19 5 Day -0613.33 -0020.75 -0553.59 -0911.74 -1351.48 -1101.66
04/22 5 Day -0359.22 -0051.53 -0331.69 -0772.92 -1252.81 -1062.81
04/23 5 Day -0261.83 -0063.94 -0129.06 -0778.07 -1350.62 -0886.95
04/24 5 Day -0053.44 +0178.49 +0137.49 -0482.27 -1148.30 -0722.72
04/25 5 Day +0298.25 +0151.54 +0263.94 -0187.49 -0641.81 -0796.42
04/26 5 Day +0915.23 +0301.90 +0454.21 +0277.98 -0383.99 -0542.97
04/29 5 Day +0388.09 +0028.87 -0178.50 +0026.88 -0829.93 -0157.20
04/30 5 Day +0349.95 +0088.12 -0038.51 +0144.53 -0463.40 +0170.18

Average % change/day, 5 days
____ **5 Day *10 Day *25 Day *50 Day 100 Day 200 Day
03/26 +160.72 +167.40 +203.92 -483.04 +114.61 -187.97
03/27 +132.61 +140.63 +139.70 -511.08 +125.85 -195.90
03/28 +066.23 +102.55 +046.37 -328.58 +061.72 -184.64
04/01 -127.44 -022.35 -118.79 -094.56 -085.50 -191.34
04/02 -106.45 -015.07 -094.53 -004.99 -035.75 -128.62
04/03 -193.66 -032.94 -158.06 +132.16 -062.88 -025.01
04/04 -188.72 -056.10 -165.93 +098.00 -041.49 +032.74
04/05 -183.49 -117.26 -161.45 -255.93 -024.44 -040.47
04/08 +057.91 -069.53 -030.69 +195.60 +114.66 +072.11
04/09 +044.25 -062.21 -086.78 +190.39 +147.05 -075.34
04/10 +073.64 -120.03 -054.57 +046.80 +028.20 -111.58
04/11 +148.36 -040.36 +033.46 +069.71 +035.10 -175.53
04/12 +254.29 +070.80 +107.45 +291.85 +063.33 -069.41
04/15 +084.09 +141.99 +055.81 +018.52 -052.26 -114.13
04/16 +049.90 +094.15 +131.76 -049.99 -158.04 -047.53
04/17 +064.58 +138.22 +111.96 -020.65 -068.63 -012.66
04/18 -072.84 +075.52 +027.43 -066.24 -173.54 -003.44
04/19 -241.18 +013.11 -067.83 -168.17 -253.49 -049.23
04/22 -133.38 -049.29 -013.74 -098.95 -184.59 -021.78
04/23 -091.94 -042.04 -012.86 -068.79 -146.96 +010.30
04/24 -057.08 +007.51 +048.20 -003.04 -105.66 +031.87
04/25 +088.99 +016.16 +108.41 +079.68 +080.05 +044.17
04/26 +305.71 +064.53 +201.56 +237.94 +193.50 +111.74
04/29 +149.46 +016.08 +030.64 +159.96 +084.58 +181.12
04/30 +122.35 +030.41 +018.11 +184.52 +177.44 +211.43

I encourage those with an interest to look at the charts and notice the prior patterns similar to the current one and the resulting price activity.

Dly Sht % of 'sells' values JIC it turns out to be useful...
Wed., 8/01: 2.37% 46.91% 0.00%
Mon., 8/06: 19.99% 33.11% 3.34% 73.89% 33.88%
Mon., 8/13: 25.13% 3.06% 71.64% 50.47% 393.87%
Mon., 8/20: 129.14% 155.71% 899.39% 137.13% 209.19%
Mon., 8/27: 34.71% 61.1% 107.48% 24.28% 104.22%
Tue., 9/4 148.07% 28.40% 16.32% 3.01%
Mon. 9/10: 23.65% 50.20% 26.05% 252.39% 185.99%
Mon. 9/17: 32.74% 12.62% 12.85% 42.25% 42.89%
Mon. 9/24: 5.08% 50.67% 89.56% 9.24% 44.74%
Mon. 10/1: 74.24% 67.10% 517.63% 102.93%
Mon. 10/8: 28.10% 27.40% 11.45% 27.48% 25.32%
Mon. 10/15: 44.06% 17.09% 71.49% 40.64% 139.27%
Mon. 10/22: 194.20% 19.54% 25.53% 15.21% 15.17%
Wed. 10/31: 62.24% 149.46% 39.90%
Mon. 11/05: 30.92% 7.61% 6.98% 3.53% 10.10%
Mon. 11/12: 4.01% 116.57% 30.19% 16.71% 39.58%
Mon. 11/19: 14.90% 3.88% 259.67% T'gvg Day 8.97% (1/2 day)
Mon. 11/26: 65.57% 142.31% 59.83% 11.20% 69.26%
Mon. 12/03: 29.97% 13.19% 10.55% 15.57% 40.42%
Mon. 12/10: 3.59% 9.24% 135.35% 6.19% 12.73%
Mon. 12/17: 26.17% 8.82% 44.97% 3.63% 15.11%
Mon. 12/24: 258.33% 92.71% 31.98% 1.54%
Mon. 12/31: 14.36% H'lday 262.58% 6.39% 131.03%
Mon. 01/07: 45.09% 77.18% 52.53% 36.35% 52.72%
Mon. 01/14: 27.99% 0.70% 48.48% 11.09% 11.21%
Tues. 01/22: 00.26% 23.79% 12.89% 8.36%
Mon. 01/28: 69.26% 42.03% 7.96% 0.00% 28.33%
Mon. 02/04: 17.36% 28.73% 18.53% 12.68% 39.65%
Mon. 02/11: 25.67% 5.99% 16.57% 17.04% 8.23%
Tues. 02/19: 19.57% 19.88% 10.17% 30.54%
Mon. 02/25: 2.88% 55.65% 28.57% 6.95% 0.28%
Mon. 03/04: 100.79% 18.46% 11.55% 21.97% 3.61%
Mon. 03/11: 25.81% 9.64% 1.35% 13.40% 0.00%
Mon. 03/18: 7.10% 5.65% 9.26% 25.15% 9.02%
Mon. 03/25: 1.47% 14.69% 4.15% 25.64%
Mon. 04/01: 4.74% 11.82% 19.85% 3.42% 0.59%
Mon. 04/08: 8.01% 9.51% 13.54% 0.00% 6.62%
Mon. 04/15: 2.68% 8.94% 5.64% 1.67% 18.45%
Mon. 04/22: 0.42% 4.90% 690.95% 39.86% 22.22%
Mon. 04/29: 5.98% 14.04%

Feb Avg: 54.68%, min: 0.35%, max: 200.89%
Mar Avg: 49.86%, min: 0.70%, max: 252.30%
Apr Avg: 31.50%, min: 0.00%, max: 74.35%
May Avg: 62.73%, min: 0.00%, max: 398.94%

Then the Mega-C shares entered market? Note the hefty change in both the averages and maximums.

Jun Avg: Avg: 183.48%, min: 5.05%, max: 1607.50%
Jul Avg: 176.07%, min: 7.75%, max: 1273.20%

Sometime in August I began stating that I thought the larger sellers might be getting exhausted.

Aug Avg: 113.91%, min: 0.00%, max: 899.39%
Sep Avg: 56.67%, min: 3.01%, max: 252.39%
Oct Avg: 85.05%, min: 11.45%, max: 565.73%
Nov Avg: 51.96%, min: 3.53%, max: 259.67%
Dec Avg: 38.72%, min: 1.54%, max: 258.33%

============ 2013 ===============
Jan Avg: 44.20%, min: 0.00%, max: 262.58%
Feb Avg: 20.90%, min: 2.88%, max: 55.65%
Mar Avg: 15.42%, min: 0.00%, max: 100.79%
Apr Avg: 40.63%, min: 0.00%, max: 690.95%

0430 Vol 0407902, Sht 0021880 05.36% LHC 0.2101 0.2549 0.2390 b:s 1.57:10
0429 Vol 1332379, Sht 0051500 03.87% LHC 0.2001 0.2440 0.2119 b:s 1:1.83
0426 Vol 0133648, Sht 0016000 11.97% LHC 0.2324 0.2499 0.2449 b:s 1:1.27
0425 Vol 0191550, Sht 0061000 31.85% LHC 0.2400 0.2500 0.2400 b:s 1:3.97
0424 Vol 0161622, Sht 0067022 41.47% LHC 0.2450 0.2500 0.2500 b:s 13.29:1
0423 Vol 0070533, Sht 0000833 01.18% LHC 0.2401 0.2500 0.2500 b:s 3.15:1
0422 Vol 0240850, Sht 0000550 00.23% LHC 0.2400 0.2559 0.2401 b:s 1:1.20
0419 Vol 0515507, Sht 0078791 15.28% LHC 0.2321 0.2603 0.2450 b:s 1:4.83
0418 Vol 0375500, Sht 0004500 01.20% LHC 0.2600 0.2625 0.2600 b:s 1:136.86
0417 Vol 0115060, Sht 0005275 04.58% LHC 0.2600 0.2750 0.2600 b:s 1:4.35
0416 Vol 0161636, Sht 0009600 05.94% LHC 0.2601 0.2700 0.2601 b:s 1:1.98
0415 Vol 0253015, Sht 0005800 02.29% LHC 0.2600 0.2629 0.2601 b:s 1:5.89
0412 Vol 0091300, Sht 0004500 04.93% LHC 0.2601 0.2739 0.2622 b:s 1:2.92
0411 Vol 0146890, Sht 0000000 00.00% LHC 0.2600 0.2629 0.2604 b:s 1:2.08[60]
0410 Vol 0106016, Sht 0010900 10.28% LHC 0.2605 0.2669 0.2639 b:s 1:3.15
0409 Vol 0217371, Sht 0012500 05.75% LHC 0.2611 0.2725 0.2650 b:s 1:1.53
0408 Vol 0196151, Sht 0011200 05.71% LHC 0.2600 0.2800 0.2600 b:s 1:2.48
0405 Vol 0360500, Sht 0001700 00.47% LHC 0.2600 0.2960 0.2648 b:s 1:4.04
0404 Vol 0446792, Sht 0011884 02.66% LHC 0.2602 0.2950 0.2855 b:s 1:3.52
0403 Vol 0100000, Sht 0010300 10.30% LHC 0.2600 0.2699 0.2675 b:s 1:1.08
0402 Vol 0262385, Sht 0024245 09.24% LHC 0.2550 0.2699 0.2650 b:s 1:3.58
0401 Vol 0323220, Sht 0014100 04.36% LHC 0.2600 0.2849 0.2800 b:s 1:11.63
0328 Vol 0101815, Sht 0015000 14.73% LHC 0.2760 0.2850 0.2849 b:s 1:1.35
0327 Vol 0192540, Sht 0006500 03.38% LHC 0.2751 0.3000 0.2889 b:s 1:4.37
0326 Vol 0089377, Sht 0005977 06.69% LHC 0.2800 0.2950 0.2899 b:s 1.20:1
0325 Vol 0355680, Sht 0004000 01.12% LHC 0.2771 0.3000 0.2800 b:s 1:3.26
0322 Vol 0197489, Sht 0003700 01.87% LHC 0.2700 0.2895 0.2890 b:s 3.57:1
0321 Vol 0314345, Sht 0035494 11.29% LHC 0.2750 0.2979 0.2750 b:s 1.23:1
0320 Vol 0399349, Sht 0021150 05.30% LHC 0.2700 0.3000 0.2939 b:s 1:1.34
0319 Vol 0357598, Sht 0014793 04.14% LHC 0.2700 0.2851 0.2750 b:s 1:2.74
0318 Vol 0204330, Sht 0010830 05.30% LHC 0.2800 0.2999 0.2894 b:s 1:2.94
0315 Vol 0210470, Sht 0000000 00.00% LHC 0.2810 0.3039 0.2950 b:s 1:7.02
0314 Vol 0183300, Sht 0019000 10.37% LHC 0.2880 0.3040 0.2880 b:s 1:3.42
0312 Vol 0193325, Sht 0013720 07.10% LHC 0.2931 0.3194 0.3000 b:s 1:2.79
0311 Vol 0043325, Sht 0004000 09.23% LHC 0.3100 0.3197 0.3195 b:s 1.80:1
0308 Vol 0136805, Sht 0004160 03.04% LHC 0.3050 0.3198 0.3198 b:s 1:5.39
0307 Vol 0170660, Sht 0029125 17.07% LHC 0.3010 0.3250 0.3050 b:s 1:2.62[59]
0306 Vol 0143208, Sht 0010604 07.40% LHC 0.3200 0.3369 0.3200 b:s 1:2.92
0305 Vol 0225324, Sht 0030291 13.44% LHC 0.3300 0.3500 0.3345 b:s 1:2.68
0304 Vol 0304233, Sht 0043363 14.25% LHC 0.3000 0.3100 0.3099 b:s 1:2.80
0301 Vol 0097540, Sht 0000200 00.21% LHC 0.3002 0.3400 0.3350 b:s 6.07:1
0228 Vol 0077100, Sht 0004550 05.90% LHC 0.3000 0.3200 0.3001 b:s 1:5.65
0227 Vol 0132545, Sht 0020429 15.41% LHC 0.2926 0.3109 0.3100 b:s 1:1.17
0226 Vol 0044241, Sht 0012740 28.80% LHC 0.2880 0.3095 0.2926 b:s 1:1.07
0225 Vol 0073600, Sht 0002000 02.72% LHC 0.2890 0.3089 0.2900 b:s 1:17.38
0222 Vol 0115700, Sht 0020000 17.29% LHC 0.2880 0.3108 0.2990 b:s 1:1.63
0221 Vol 0020650, Sht 0002100 10.17% LHC 0.2911 0.3001 0.3001 b:s 0:20650
0220 Vol 0108250, Sht 0016350 15.10% LHC 0.2910 0.3109 0.2910 b:s 1:3.16
0219 Vol 0255826, Sht 0033217 12.98% LHC 0.2910 0.3109 0.3000 b:s 1:2.14
0215 Vol 0114625, Sht 0005030 04.39% LHC 0.2970 0.3100 0.3100 b:s 1:1.14
0214 Vol 0450402, Sht 0037600 08.35% LHC 0.2990 0.3240 0.3000 b:s 1:1.71
0213 Vol 0247690, Sht 0033300 13.44% LHC 0.3200 0.3270 0.3200 b:s 1:5.48
0212 Vol 0269141, Sht 0012439 04.62% LHC 0.3200 0.3300 0.3200 b:s 1:3.37
0211 Vol 0262950, Sht 0039950 15.19% LHC 0.3200 0.3395 0.3300 b:s 1:1.45
0208 Vol 0170389, Sht 0022205 13.03% LHC 0.3246 0.3289 0.3260 b:s 2.04:1
0207 Vol 0147700, Sht 0007700 05.21% LHC 0.3250 0.3395 0.3269 b:s 1.43:1
0206 Vol 0078900, Sht 0009350 11.85% LHC 0.3210 0.3300 0.3300 b:s 1:1.77
0205 Vol 0075565, Sht 0011465 15.17% LHC 0.3204 0.3300 0.3235 b:s 1:1.12
0204 Vol 0211835, Sht 0013500 06.37% LHC 0.3200 0.3289 0.3288 b:s 1.72:1
0201 Vol 0247850, Sht 0026400 10.65% LHC 0.3200 0.3295 0.3245 b:s 1.66:1
0131 Vol 0063453, Sht 0000000 00.00% LHC 0.3156 0.3240 0.3200 b:s 1.29:1
0130 Vol 0159470, Sht 0008500 05.33% LHC 0.3155 0.3300 0.3199 b:s 1:2.02
0129 Vol 0145105, Sht 0014627 10.08% LHC 0.3216 0.3311 0.3290 b:s 3.17:1
0128 Vol 0094400, Sht 0018700 19.81% LHC 0.3140 0.3300 0.3250 b:s 2.50:1
0125 Vol 0473350, Sht 0027500 05.81% LHC 0.2960 0.3220 0.3140 b:s 1:2.28
0124 Vol 0416640, Sht 0033450 13.76% LHC 0.3000 0.3440 0.3222 b:s 1:1.67
0123 Vol 0210763, Sht 0029000 13.76% LHC 0.3380 0.3500 0.3440 b:s 1:1.55
0122 Vol 0257760, Sht 0000660 00.26% LHC 0.3456 0.3579 0.3500 b:s 1.04:1
0118 Vol 0278075, Sht 0020530 07.38% LHC 0.3500 0.3600 0.3585 b:s 1:1.93
0117 Vol 0439978, Sht 0029800 0.0677% LHC 0.3505 0.3757 0.3600 b:s 1:1.60
0116 Vol 1005050, Sht 0033500 03.33% LHC 0.3475 0.3600 0.3550 b:s 13.5:1
0115 Vol 0943341, Sht 0005957 05.96% LHC 0.3470 0.3789 0.3551 b:s 1:9.74
[59] Two pre-market trades totaling 12.5K are not included in FINRA-reported data. Adding these to the day's volume yields a short percentage of 15.9%. If it's also added to the short sales, the percentage goes to 22.73%.
[60] An AH 50K trade is not included in the FINRA data. Including that in the volume has no effect because reported short sales were zero. If we also include it in short sales, the short percentage moves to 25.39%. However, with the recent daily short sales so low, there's no reason to believe these were a short sale.

04/29/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 174, MinTrSz: 300, MaxTrSz: 185191, Vol 1332379, AvTrSz: 7657
Min. Pr: 0.2001, Max Pr: 0.3440, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2125
# Buys, Shares: 78 470674, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2149
# Sells, Shares: 96 861705, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2112
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:1.83 (35.3% "buys"), DlyShts 51500 (3.87%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 5.98%

Daily short sales were again relatively high, compared to the trend of the last couple months, at 51.5K. Because of the high trade volume, the percentage was quite low though. I'm guessing that the source of the daily short sales were what I guessed previously - some shares from a bigger seller that were traded through a market-maker not controlled by the broker at which the shares were held.

Just for some context, average trade size, which is near the high end of what I believe is typical retail trading, was influenced by a single trade of ~185.2K (13.9%, ~1/7th, of day's volume). Removing this trade would give us 6,631 average trade size, which I think is at the high side of the retail mid-range. That would also put the buy:sell to 1:1.44 (41% "buys") and move average trade price to $0.2143.

We managed to penetrate the low from 11/12/12, $0.2018. We also had more than triple the volume. In November, we had an immediate rebound and began our grind up. But this time we do have concerns about financing, the possibility that our big sellers are not yet done, and disgruntlement with managements (lack of) managing investors' expectations.

Thinking of the larger offers seen recently, the volume spike today, the price action and EOM, I suspect the selling pressure will abate today or tomorrow. I could be wrong, but the likelihood seems high to me.

With today's exceptional volume, there's no point in looking at my experimental stuff - weakness shown all around on the experimental inflection point calculations. The only positive is that average trades size, using either number above, is still within the up trend.

Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points included in the latest daily post above.

04/26/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 25, MinTrSz: 448, MaxTrSz: 16000, Vol 133648, AvTrSz: 5346
Min. Pr: 0.2324, Max Pr: 0.2499, VW Avg. Tr. Pr:0.2382
# Buys, Shares: 14 56648, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2400
# Sells, Shares: 10 72000, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2366
# Unkn, Shares: 1 5000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.2400
Buy:Sell 1:1.27 (42.4% "buys"), DlyShts 16000 (11.97%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 22.22%

As we know from recent comments in the APC, assuming no subterfuge, one of our bigger sellers (apparently) was out Friday and will be out today (update: maybe not out today - posted a comment in the APC). As I suggested, the short volume and percentage dropped. I suspect this is because those shares that caused the spike in the daily short sales were sold through a market-maker that was not affiliated with the broker that held the shares. So I expect low daily short sales again today, maybe along with continued-low volume. A nice side-effect was seeing the buy percentage come somewhere near normal again although I suspect it will again plummet Tuesday, unless there's some nice PR issued.

Meanwhile, the average trade size continues its trend of creeping up and "trying" to stay in the trend of increasing back to normal ranges. Today finished within the up trend and right in the middle of what I think is retail sizes.

Since we have at least one apparently known big seller that will return tomorrow and one (at least?) still active through ATDF (and maybe other MMs), I don't see much value in even commenting beyond what I stated above, so no more today.

Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.

04/25/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 31, MinTrSz: 500, MaxTrSz: 50000, Vol 191550, AvTrSz: 6179
Min. Pr: 0.2400, Max Pr: 0.2500, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2431
# Buys, Shares: 17 38527, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2482
# Sells, Shares: 14 153023, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2418
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:3.97 (20.1% "buys"), DlyShts 61000 (31.85%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 39.86%

As we all know by know, there's one or more sellers with a relatively large position they are trying to exit. Today saw continued evidence of this in both a normal and somewhat abnormal (relative to prior recent behavior) behavior.

The abnormal behavior was that on ATDF we saw the 100K seller jostling with another seller that works in 10K increments to be first on the ask. This had the predictable effect of acting like yesterday (4/24): pushing the asks lower throughout the day until finally the bids began to respond to that. Ask started the day at $0.25 and eventually worked down to $0.245 at 14:17, where it stayed until after 15:00 when it was back up to $0.25 at 15:39 when I took another peek. The bids yesterday responded appropriately, starting in the $0.245x range and hit $0.2402 at 12:37, when I peeked, rose back into the $0.245-$0.246 area, where they stayed until my peeks at 14:17 ($0.2401) and 15:39 ($0.2401). Recall that at 15:39 we had 98.8K @ VWAP of $0.2488, all "sells" or "unknowns".

Today the asks began better, starting at $0.2499 and holding there (likely due to the very low volume until ...), rising to $0.2573 around 14:10 (very briefly) and dropped to $0.2498 when I peeked at 14:53. The the battle of the offers began in earnest with $0.2497 offered at 15:05 followed by steps down relatively quickly to hit $0.245 and $0.246 around 15:30, after which it held at $0.2489 for the last 15 minutes of the day. In 15 seconds, 15:45:52 to 15:46:07, 106.7K shares traded at a VWAP of $0.2402, just off the day's low of $0.24.

The normal behavior, regardless of the presence of the 100K seller, was the late-day weakness in price. We've been seeing this for months now. A lack of this for a few days running might signal some chance for appreciation, as would not seeing ATDF constantly battling for a front row seat on the offering side.

This is also the second day with a much larger than recently normal volume, and percentage, of daily short sales. Me current belief is that the 100K seller has shares at a broker that feeds them to ATDF, likely because they don't have their own captive MM desk or ...

When will it end? Here's a swag if you want to get some shares while the price is low. Recall that recently (last week?) we had an early glimpse of 400K on the offer side (at much higher prices then too!) on ATDF. We can't tell if this was a single seller or an aggregate of multiple sellers that had the same price. I'm assuming that there's at least 400K still in one or more hands that want to be out around EOM. So I think there's a good chance that it ends next week (maybe Tuesday or Wednesday?). One of the acknowledged sellers stated they would be out of pocket until Tuesday, at which time I assume his selling would resume. There's also an emotional component now, if his commentary is reflecting how he will behave. So that could bring even lower prices.

I have a little dry powder not working other areas and I will pull the trigger if I see the mentioned $0.15. I consider that unlikely unless the bottom-feeders here enter a near-hibernation state. There's just too many folks that will see excellent risk/reward with prices down in these areas and hibernators will be stepped over on the way to the buying window. But it will not be a rush while the sellers remain relatively undisciplined.

Meanwhile, back at the ranch. Average trade size remains up in the middle of what I think is retail (two days in a row near the middle) and buy:sell dropped as buyers recognized the sellers' fingerprints and properly worked the "crime scene".

My original experimental inflection point calculations still suggest that downward pressure is slowly weakening (but based on the above, you can see that could change rapidly) and the newer version is still suggesting "flat", but with some weakness in the longer-term calculations as the volume weakens in combination with other things and can't influence the longer-term trends as strongly. This could break the pattern that suggested "flat". So keep an eye out for that.

Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.

04/24/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 30, MinTrSz: 200, MaxTrSz: 64522, Vol 161622, AvTrSz: 5387
Min. Pr: 0.2450, Max Pr: 0.2500, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2478
# Buys, Shares: 23 128922, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2485
# Sells, Shares: 4 9700, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2453
# Unkn, Shares: 3 23000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.2450
Buy:Sell 13.29:1 (79.8% "buys"), DlyShts 67022 (41.47%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 690.95%

Things of note today, other than we indeed seem to be doing "flat": short volume and percentage; buy:sell says lots of folks see this as low-risk entry point and/or expect very good news; "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" is in an area not seen for months (the "big seller(s)" today were shorting to buyers, not hitting the bid), the short volume was very close to the largest block trade today of 64.5K (a "buy" @ $0.25); price spread is very narrow; volume more than doubled yesterday's; average trade size (affected by that big trade) moved back into the rising trend range I've been noting, today it's at mid-range of what I think is retail.

The fourth consecutive day of improving buy percentage has begun to affect the 5 and 10-day averages. I'm expecting this to continue, likely haltingly.

My original experimental inflection point calculations continue to show a reduction in the weakness. Patterns are starting to form that may lead to an indication of price moving up. As usual, it's early though and the patterns haven't formed up yet. On the newer version, which considers additional factors, it's even more so. However, it's still just a "flat" indication until the patterns form up a bit better over time.

Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.

04/23/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 23, MinTrSz: 150, MaxTrSz: 9300, Vol 70533, AvTrSz: 3067
Min. Pr: 0.2401, Max Pr: 0.2500, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2484
# Buys, Shares: 18 53533, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2499
# Sells, Shares: 5 17000, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2437
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 3.15:1 (75.9% "buys"), DlyShts 833 (01.18%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 4.90%

Average trade size dropped to the very lower end of what I think is retail today, but after the price and volume action of the prior two days, I wouldn't consider this a break in the generally rising trend ... yet. This seems reasonable, too, in light of what I think is relatively good price and buy:sell action after the step down we just came through.

I also see support in the movement of the bids and asks throughout the day. Yes, the trades were few and the volume was low, but the tendency looked quite positive to me. Of the ten changes in bids that I caught from pre-market (8:02) to the close, seven were increases in the bid and three were down (keep in mind that at the close many bids are withdrawn and lower bid are exposed - maybe two reduced instances would be a better number). The asks were really very stable today. Only three changes were noted in the same period, with one an increase in ask price, one a decrease and one unchanged.

Buy:sell has made enough of a recovery over the last three days such that the 10 and 25-day buy percentage averages have begun to show improvement. Of course, those values were so low and far out of trend that we shouldn't start doing any handsprings yet. Small improvement have out-sized effects under these conditions.

If this sort of behavior in the bids and asks continues, and the buy:sell stays in more normal ranges, I think we can look forward to some price increase. However, I would not make that judgment on one day's action and low number of trades and volume, especially since my newer inflection point calculations began formation of a pattern yesterday that, if it continues, suggested "flat" action in the past. I think today is just a start of some consolidation. But it's still positive compared to what we've been seeing. The key will be the action as we exit it, of course. And there's a possibility we won't exit it until some announcement from Axion appears. In light of recent action, having the fire doors locked may be a really good thing.

My original inflection point calculations, as we could expect from the above, has the three shortest periods indicating a reduction in weakness while the longer ones just go "ho-hum - keep on keepin' on". The newer version, as mentioned, shows the same and continues a pattern formation that has suggested flat action in the past.

Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.

04/22/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 30, MinTrSz: 500, MaxTrSz: 84500, Vol 240850, AvTrSz: 8028
Min. Pr: 0.2400, Max Pr: 0.2559, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2448
# Buys, Shares: 15 109550, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2499
# Sells, Shares: 15 131300, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2405
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:1.20 (45.5% "buys"), DlyShts 550 (00.23%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 0.42%

Average trades size was influenced by an 84.5K trade, 31.5% of day's volume. With this trade, it put us in what I think is the upper range of retail. Without it, we would have been at 5391, what I think is mid-range of retail. Even with this latter value, it continues the trend of generally increasing average trade size within the trend lines on my chart, which may bode well for price appreciation a bit down the road.

Since this trade, and the other two associated with it (they were RuggedDC's trades) were "sells", they also influenced the buy:sell ratio. Just removing them from the "sell" total moves buy:sell to 3.50:1. Nice to think about, but I don't think a one-day improvement of that magnitude for that reason should be given any weight. Just nice to know some context is all.

On my original experimental inflection point calculations, nothing to comment on, really. As we could expect from today's action, the five-day stops it's descent while the longer-term ones, except one, continue to show weakness, Interestingly, to me, is that the newer version, which was intended to ameliorate the "flakiness" of the original and consider other factors to get better reliability, has all periods making a "flip up". In this particular configuration it doesn't, based on minimal experience so far, suggest an up trend, but does suggest going sideways. My quick perusal of that chart suggests it is fairly reliable in this suggestion. It doesn't suggest duration though, AFAICT.

Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily pot above.

04/19/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 80, MinTrSz: 150, MaxTrSz: 57165, Vol 515507, AvTrSz: 6444
Min. Pr: 0.2321, Max Pr: 0.2603, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2455
# Buys, Shares: 22 88495, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2455
# Sells, Shares: 58 427012, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2456
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:4.83 (17.2% "buys"), DlyShts 78791 (15.28%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 18.45%

Yesterday I said "If I was doing good old traditional TA, which I'm not. I would be watching to see if this was "end of trend" suggested by the volume and long flat price trend. But in light of recent behavior, no such guess is forthcoming from me right now".

Well, missed my chance to look like a genius I guess because the flat trend was decisively broken today. With "feeling" too - volume was above all my averages, 10, 25, 50 and 100-day, in thousands: 215, 243, 204 and 292 respectively. And just for fun, I did a 200-day SMA which came in at ~324.6K. Today's volume is the highest since the 1MM+ of 1/16!

Average trades size was right in the high-middle of what I think is retail and above all but the 10-day average, where it was almost exactly a match to that 6,473. This was influenced by six larger trades accounting for 175,257 shares, 34% of the days volume. Excluding those yielded an average size of 4,598, what I think is mid-range for retail.

Since our peak VWAP of $0.3710 1/14 at the end of our grind up, and the start of our grind down, we have traded 15,305,660 shares. Interesting is that the number of shares traded during our grind up, which began when the VWAP nadir of $0.2352 on 11/12/2012 occurred, is 15,899,640.

Hm? Coinky-dink? 15.3MM vs 15.9MM? Methinks no coinky-dink exists there!

Anybody got the guts to call the start of a grind up now? I don't! How 'bout the near-term bottom? Anyone? From this I draw the conclusion that we had lots of traders in the stock and/or not near as many "strong hands" as we had envisioned. Makes me feel somewhat foolish for only trading a few small trading blocks I had allocated. And maybe for sharing my data and thoughts so easily too.

I'm going to have to consider that last item.

Another interesting, to me, item is the start of the reduced daily short sales. This was brought to mind by today's relatively large (compared to recent values) percentage. Looking at my charts we see the drop off in daily short sales appeared around the 1/14 time-frame. Another coinky-dink? Maybe. But I tend to side with Leroy Jethro Gibbs here too. It may be nothing, but ...

Wrapping up, my original inflection point calculations which I mentioned were suggesting flat and/or weakening and were disorganized, are no longer disorganized. They achieved the state now where I watch for signals of an uptrend to start. My newer version is in the same state - now I watch for a turn.

Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points in the latest daily post above.

04/18/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 31, MinTrSz: 80, MaxTrSz: 30000, Vol 295580, AvTrSz: 9535
Min. Pr: 0.2600, Max Pr: 0.2625, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2604
# Buys, Shares: 1 1970, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2600
# Sells, Shares: 29 269610, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2602
# Unkn, Shares: 1 24000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.2625
Buy:Sell 1:136.86 (00.67% "buys"), DlyShts 4500 (1.20%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 1.67%

One trade today was a "buy". Three of the last six days have had increasingly larger average trade sizes. We are still in a trend of increasing sizes, as evident on my chart. Today the average trade size is at the high side of what I consider to be typical retail range. This is explained by the following trades, all but the one priced at $0.2625 being "sells" and that one being "unknown". All after 11:56 A.M.:
$0.2600 10000, $0.2600 16920, $0.2602 22500, $0.2600 23030, $0.2600 23100, $0.2625 24000, $0.2602 24900, $0.2602 24900, $0.2605 25000, $0.2600 25000 and $0.2610 30000.

These trades were 84.36% of the day's volume and 35.5% of the number of trades for the day. You can see this also explains the "buy" percentage being less than 1%. All but two trades "hit the bid", representing 269,610 shares released into and taken from the market. Under this scenario I assume price was not a major factor in the sellers' decisions, continuing the trend we've been watching.

The movement of bids and asks during the day were balanced with about half up and half down on both at the times I peeked.

If I was doing good old traditional TA, which I'm not. I would be watching to see if this was "end of trend" suggested by the volume and long flat price trend. But in light of recent behavior, no such guess is forthcoming from me right now.

Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points omitted from the concentrator.

04/16/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 31, MinTrSz: 371, MaxTrSz: 40000, Vol 161636, AvTrSz: 5214
Min. Pr: 0.2601, Max Pr: 0.2700, VW Avg. Tr. Pr:0.2634
# Buys, Shares: 16 54196, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2659
# Sells, Shares: 15 107440, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2621
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:1.98 (33.5% "buys"), DlyShts 9600 (05.94%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 8.94%

Average trade size continues to be in an upward trend and with only one larger trade today - our 3 largest trades were 40K, 23K and 10K. Today we're smack in the middle of what I think is retail size and in the area of all the averages and the long-term calculated trend. If this keeps up, I might have to read something into it.

You can see from the number of buy and sell trades, and their VWAPs and volumes, that the sellers and buyers were not far out of balance today. This seems supported by the bid ticks up and down, at the times I checked today, being fairly balanced - 4:3 in favor of up ticks. Asks favored down ticks - five down, three up and one unchanged.

VWAP is holding steady: $0.2647, $0.2630, $0.2610, $0.2620, $0.2610 and $0.2634. Our five and 10-day averages are $0.2621 and $0.2635 respectively. Note too the buy and sell five-day VWAPs vs. their averages: $0.2642 and $0.2613 respectively. The daily values have been hanging right around their five-day averages, slightly up and down, for the last week or so.

All of the above, combined with low volume, makes me think of "basing". The trouble is we don't yet see strong trend evidence of the sellers being exhausted with the buy and sell five-day average percentages running at 26.02% and 73.98% respectively.

Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.

04/15/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 27, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 67000, Vol 253015, AvTrSz: 9371
Min. Pr: 0.2600, Max Pr: 0.2629, VW Avg. Tr. Pr:0.2610
# Buys, Shares: 5 36700, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2629
# Sells, Shares: 22 216315, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2607
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:5.89 (14.5% "buys"), DlyShts 5800 (2.29%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 2.68%

Since today's average trade size is above what I believe to be "retail", I wanted to highlight that we had one really abnormally large trade and a few more abnormally large trades today, just to provide a little context. If you don't want to read the comments, we had 5 trades (out of 27 for the day) totaling 169.1K, 66.8% of day's volume, at a VWAP of $0.2609. Excluding those, which is not reasonable of course, we had 83915 shares traded at a VWAP of $0.2613.

I wanted to note that our asks and bids have been holding fairly steady, overall, the last many days and the price weakness is almost exclusively the result of sellers hitting the bids. This can be seen in the recent high "sell" percentages since 3/20: 57.22, 44.82, 20.78, 76.55, 45.52, 81.38, 57.46, 92.08, 78.17, 51.90, 77.89, 80.17, 71.25, 60.50, 75.92, 67.55, 74.48 and 85.49. As to the effect of the bids holding up recently, this appears in the VWAPs from 4/2 onward: $0.2610, $0.2669, $0.2655, $0.2653, $0.2620, $0.2647, $0.2630, $0.2610, $0.2620 and $0.2610. The average over this 10-day period is $0.2632. We mustn't overlook that some of this is from folks hitting the ask too.

Which way we'll break from this trend is unpredictable, IMO, because of the apparently common feeling that everybody, except the sellers, is awaiting the capital raise news. Some feel the longer we go, the more positive because management wouldn't cut it too close and must have a decent deal in-hand. Others are much less positive and are expecting a raise yet to come that will be geared to some period's average price of some type, with a discount applied.

My original experimental inflection point calculations continue to be disorganized, suggesting noting but more of the same for now. The newer version is better with the three near-term calculations saying "flat" and the longer-term ones showing a slight weakening at the moment.

Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.

04/12/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 17, MinTrSz: 300, MaxTrSz: 19500, Vol 91300, AvTrSz: 5371
Min. Pr: 0.2601, Max Pr: 0.2739, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2620
# Buys, Shares: 6 23300, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2658
# Sells, Shares: 11 68000, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2607
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:2.92 (25.5% "buys"), 4500 (4.93%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 6.62%

Average trade size continues to be in a rising trend, seen on the instablog charts. Today it was smack in the middle of what I believe to be average retail size. Do keep in mind though that volume was very low, second only to the 89.38K of 3/26 in recent trading, and there were only 17 trades for the day. This means we can't really evaluate whether or not it is saying anything today.

The buy percentage continues low but has not yet broken the slowly rising trend it has been in. How slowly rising? Even though it has been "trending" for nine days, not one of the averages I plot are ticking up with authority yet. The best is the 25-day average, which has been essentially flat for 3 whole days.

I've already mentioned the low volume. Add in that VWAP could be charitably described as weakening in a range of flat: $0.2707, $0.2610, $0.2669, $0.2655, $0.2653, $0.2620, $0.2647, $0.2630, $0.2610 and $0.2620. For some context, intra-day VWAP averages for 5, 10, 25 and 50-day periods respectively: $0.2625, $0.2642, $0.2797 and $0.2971. Not positive, to say the least.

The bids trended up throughout the day, but the low volume, again, suggests we should not place a lot of weight on this activity. Anyway, from before market open when bid was $0.25 through the last peek at 14:43, the bid stepped up 6 of the eight instances I recorded, with the remaining two unchanged. Asks were mixed with the BMO (before market open) offer seen of $0.275 going to $0.2605 at the open and moving up three more times and down four more times during the day and ending at $0.2629 on my last intra-day peek at 14:43. The high seen, and it was traded for 300 shares, was $0.2739 at 12:17.

On my original experimental inflection point calculations, the short-term (5, 10 and 25-day periods) continue to suggest a reduction in the rate of weakening of the buy:sell ratio. The longer-term ones are suggesting the opposite. This is what I call disorganized. On my newer version, intended to be less flaky and to be sensitive to other factors as well, all periods are going "flat", suggesting a reduction in the weakening. The conditions are best comprehended looking at the charts. For both the original and newer versions though, keep the volume in mind. Both are volume-sensitive and smaller volumes make what they show much less reliable.

Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.

04/11/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 23, MinTrSz: 400, MaxTrSz: 50000, Vol 196890, AvTrSz: 8560
Min. Pr: 0.2600, Max Pr: 0.2629, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2610
# Buys, Shares: 12 63900, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2622
# Sells, Shares: 11 132990,VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2605
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0,VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:2.08 (32.5% "buys"), DlyShts 0 (00.00%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 0.00%

An AH 50K trade is not included in the FINRA data. Including that in the volume has no effect because reported short sales were zero. If we also include it in short sales, the short percentage moves to 25.39%. However, with the recent daily short sales so low, there's no reason to believe these were a short sale.

Without that trade, buy:sell would be 43.5% "buys" and the average trade size would be in the upper-mid range of what I believe is "retail". With it the average trade size is above what I believe to be typical retail sizes. Is all this a result of the "last gasp" exit by the sellers? Recall yesterday I suspected we might hit $0.25xx today. Didn't quite make it, but not from lack of trying. You can see from the buys and sells lines above that the sellers hit the bids with large trades, as compared to the buys. The sells alone is sufficient to take 2/3rds of the 188K asks we espied from ATDF today. I'd like to think that ends it, but we did see a 39K, and maybe a 120K, offer from UBSS alone today. They may still be out there in the $0.2625/$0.2629 area.

Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.

04/10/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 27, MinTrSz: 630, MaxTrSz: 20000, Vol 106016, AvTrSz: 3927
Min. Pr: 0.2605, Max Pr: 0.2669, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2630
# Buys, Shares: 10 25530, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2641
# Sells, Shares: 17 80486, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2626
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:3.15 (24.1% "buys"), DlyShts 10900 (10.28%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 13.54%

Still in the same boat. We're getting reducing volume again, VWAP a bit weaker but still "flat", buy percentage retreating a bit again as sellers continue unabated dumping. Average trade size at the lower end of what I think is retail. But it is still in the uptrend denoted by the trend lines I added to my chart, so there's a glimmer of hope there.

My original inflection point calculations gave up a little of the improvement in the shorter-term calculations, but can't say if the improving trend is broken yet or this is just normal variation within trend that started a few days ago. My newer versions are about the same but show slightly less deterioration, as would be expected since one of its purposes was to be a bit less "flaky" than the original.

Of the bids and ask changes I happened to capture, after the open the up and down moves on the bids were evenly split at five each with one unchanged. On the asks it was similar at three each way and four cases of unchanged. The overall trend on the bids was up through around 11:15 and then weakening thereafter. The asks were similar through about 11:00 and then went flat at $0.2639 for almost the whole rest of the day. So today's slight weakening of price came from a change in buyer behavior: they didn't push bids up while the sellers continued to be willing to satisfy folks at reduced prices.

I saw my first signs, after market close, that we might hit $0.25xx today. Nothing strong, but the best bid for a while was in the $0.25 range. Those bids have been there for a long time, but generally the better bids left after close have been above those. This is very ephemeral as far as "signs" go, so I don't know if it deserves any true consideration or not.

Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.

04/09/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 35, MinTrSz: 741, MaxTrSz: 25000, Vol 217371, AvTrSz: 6211
Min. Pr: 0.2611, Max Pr: 0.2725, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2647
# Buys, Shares: 18 85871, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2672
# Sells, Shares: 17 131500, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2631
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:1.53 (39.5% "buys"), DlyShts 12500 (05.75%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 9.51%

Just want to note that average trade size continues in its uptrend, as I mentioned couple days back. Today end in the mid-high side of what I believe to be "retail". This is more easily discernible on my charts - been moving that way since 3/11. It's not been a really reliable predictor of action going forward, but if you peek at my one-year snapshot, you'll see that our grind up that began last November was accompanied by an improvement in this metric. Not strongly correlated with prior behavior though.

We've now been in this price range long enough that my original inflection point calculations are beginning to show a reduction in the rate of weakening. My newer version indicates this even more strongly.

With VWAP essentially flat the last seven days - $0.2707, $0.2610, $0.2669, $0.2655, $0.2653, $0.2620 and $0.2647 - it's tempting to think we've bottomed. But I'm cautious on that because our determined sellers seem to have an unlimited supply of shares they consider worth much less than current market price.

There's other points that are improving, but we don't know yet if they are a trend or one-day aberrations.

Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points in the latest daily post above.

04/08/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 37, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 40000, Vol 196151, AvTrSz: 5301
Min. Pr: 0.2600, Max Pr: 0.2800, VW Avg. Tr. Pr:0.2620
# Buys, Shares: 17 56391, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2659
# Sells, Shares: 20 139760, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2604
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:2.48 (28.7% "buys"), DlyShts 11200 (5.71%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 8.01%

Well, I thought maybe we would turn a corner today. Bid ask stayed relatively stable most of the day. The fly in the ointment spoiled my hope: a "big" trade of 37.5K, a "sell" at 11:49 at $0.2602 and two trades late in the day, 10K @ $0.2603 and 40K @ $0.26. Both at 15:59. The other "big" trades today, 13K and 15K, both were also sells at $0.2602. So I'm still awaiting the exhaustion of these folks before diving into any serious analysis and thought.

Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.

04/05/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 48, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 25000, Vol 360500, AvTrSz: 7510
Min. Pr: 0.2600, Max Pr: 0.2960, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2653
# Buys, Shares: 16 71500, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2705
# Sells, Shares: 32 289000, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2640
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:4.04 (19.8% "buys"), DlyShts 1700 (00.47%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 0.59%

Well, we didn't get any follow-through from yesterday's apparent improvement. There was a mild weakening in VWAP, "buys" percentage and volume (this is the "good" part of this action). The big difference today is that buyers did not step up as strongly as yesterday. We opened at $0.2750 and immediately started weakening, hitting $0.2610 on the third trade. I guess buyers saw no reason to increase the bids with that going on. We did come back to $0.2749, but from 10:24 on we never saw a $0.27 handle again.

From then through EOD we traded 262.2K at a (falling) VWAP that ended at $0.2632. During this stretch we had 14 consecutive trades at generally weakening prices, eventually going to $0.2605, that were all "sells".

Of the seventeen instances of bid changes I caught, ten were lowered bids. Over half the rest were improvements only into the low $0.26 area. On the asks nine were lowered offers and only three were raised.

As usual, ATDF was an important part of this action, with others joining in, out of necessity I guess.

I mentioned the volume as the "good" part: falling volume does suggest that some portion of the sellers at these prices are getting exhausted. However with a seeming wellspring of sellers at ever-lower prices, I wonder if they can ever be exhausted.

Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.

04/04/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 70, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 28400, Vol 446792, AvTrSz: 6383
Min. Pr: 0.2602, Max Pr: 0.2950, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2655
# Buys, Shares: 20 98800, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2747
# Sells, Shares: 50 347992, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2628
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:3.52 (22.1% "buys"), DlyShts 11884 (02.66%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 3.42%

Regardless that we got our predicted "death cross" today, with the 50-day SMA at $0.3058 and the 200-day at $0.3063, I'm starting to get optimistic. All the oscillators I watch are suggesting this possibility as well. Regardless, I'm not yet ready to again step deep into the traditional TA.

I've noted the last several days that it looked like things were improving. Today continues that ... to the point that I think our unrelenting selling down may be either ended or very near so. This due to a combination of volume, volatility, strength into the close and no late-day weakness, among other things.

First, we had a strong close. In the last 30 minutes of the day we had VWAP of $0.2703, above our previous short-term support of $0.27 when we churned sideways for a bit, and we had a close of $0.27 if we throw out our wizard's EOD $0.2855 trade. This was on 70K shares too. You might say that this wasn't strength because the VWAP and close were much lower than the day's higher ranges. You'll see in the brackets below that this wasn't bad.

There was some trading action that makes me somewhat optimistic ...

I wondered during the earlier part of the day if we were seeing distribution of that ATDF ~143K offer that WTB(?) and I previously noted.

This seems possible from the stuff I saw through 14:32: buy:sell 1:6.90 (12.65% "buys" -> 87.35% "sells") and VWAP $0.2617, very near the day's low. We've seen this sort of stuff several times before. The difference is in the late-day action. Subsequent to that time, our buy:sell was 1:1.18 (45.9% "buys") with a VWAP of $0.2750. Our typical behavior has been one of late-day weakness and today it was not. This doesn't prove anything, but ...

Although ATDF is only one market-maker (and its clients?), it is so active (and somewhat dominate due to the willingness to always move to best ask and best bid positions, apparently regardless of price) in our market that I felt it was a good proxy for the overall tenor of things. This made me think it was worth noting that a) I had no glimpse on the ask of the ~143K from ATDF today, b) this made me wonder if they were just "hitting the bid" without competing on the asks, and c) the action today might be signaling the end of our extended weakness. I do suspect that ATDF, and some other folks, spent a good part of the day hitting the bid.

Breaking down the action may answer the "just hitting the bid" question (you can derive the "sells"):
$0.2602-$0.2630: 277392 shares, 62.09% of volume, VWAP $0.2608, "buys" 03.61%
$0.2650-$0.2699: 078150 shares, 17.49% of volume, VWAP $0.2674, "buys" 57.65%
$0.2700-$0.2722: 050150 shares, 11.22% of volume, VWAP $0.2714, "buys" 05.28%
$0.2819-$0.2950: 041100 shares, 09.20% of volume, VWAP $0.2861, "buys" 100%

In that first bracket, only 12,200 shares in four trades went off after 14:30. Showing a little strength into EOD, the third bracket, except for one trade, all went off after 15:28 and into the close. The last bracket trades were after 14:42 and continued into the close.

The potential for the end of the downward pressure seems somewhat supported by the ask behavior today. With one brief exception, the asks stayed pretty much in the upper range of the $0.26xx and above area, including some periods in $0.28xx range, running from the low to the high areas of that range. We didn't see anywhere near the usual amount of constant stepping down by various MMs trying to get to the front of the ask. On the bid side, during most of the day the bids stayed in the low-$0.26xx area. But later in the day (after 15:00) we saw some bids move into the high-$0.26xx range and even a couple stints in the low-$0.27xx area. This is a change from the most commonly observed late-day behavior.

Volume of ~437K is more than double the 25-day average of ~211K and well above the 10-day average of ~237K. It's more than four times yesterday's 100K as well. Although my judgment hasn't always been correct on this, it does often suggest the end of a trend is near.

The volatility seen may also suggest this. Even if we throw out bracket four above, we had an intra-day price range of 4.6%. Including bracket four gives a ridiculous 13.5%.

Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points included in the latest daily post above.

04/03/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 29, MinTrSz: 200, MaxTrSz: 10000, Vol 100000, AvTrSz: 3448
Min. Pr: 0.2600, Max Pr: 0.2699, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2669
# Buys, Shares: 13 48100, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2694
# Sells, Shares: 16 51900, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2647
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:1.08 (48.1% "buys"), DlyShts 10300 (10.30%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 19.85%

For those contemplating the possible financing round, here's some VWA closing averages and 10% haircuts: 30 day $0.2934, $0.2641; 40 day $0.2997, $0.2697; 60 day $0.3249, $0.2924.

Things keep improving, but I'm still leery of any postulation based on what's gone on so far. We had a higher low but our high was constrained by the $0.27 brief support we saw, which is now resistance. Maybe the nasty trend is over now as volume continues to taper off and "buy" percentages look to be trending towards normal ranges. Here's the last few days' "buy" readings: 54.5%, 18.6%, 42.5%, 07.9%, 21.8% and 48.1%. For the most part, after the open today the bids moved up a bit and stayed slightly up. The asks dropped a bit after the open and stayed tightly constrained in a narrow range of variation. For now, at least, the wholesale hitting the bids by heavy sellers has abated.

There's nothing bullish here yet, but the intra-day behavior is beginning to look less severely bearish and look much more normal in trading behavior. We should still be somewhat cautious as the volume is low and the average trade size is well down from what I think is the middle of "retail".

My original inflection point calculations show signs of improvement, as does the newer version.

Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.

04/02/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 48, MinTrSz: 385, MaxTrSz: 20000, Vol 262385, AvTrSz: 5466
Min. Pr: 0.2550, Max Pr: 0.2699, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2610
# Buys, Shares: 16 57285, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2632
# Sells, Shares: 32 205100, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2604
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:3.58 (21.8% "buys"), DlyShts 24245 (09.24%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 11.82%

For those thinking of the financing, here's some volume-weighted closing price and a 10% discount for some periods: 30 day $0.2942, $0.2648; 40 day $0.3009, $0.2708; 60 day $0.3248, $0.2923.

I'm still waiting for something looking like real trading and investing before wading back into the TA stuff. Today looked better, but I'm soured on one-day improvements for now.

The only thing I'll note today is in the next few days we will get a "death cross" as the 50-day SMA crosses below the 200-day SMA.

Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.

04/01/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 48, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 39700, Vol 323220, AvTrSz: 6734
Min. Pr: 0.2600, Max Pr: 0.2849, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2707
# Buys, Shares: 11 25600, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2800
# Sells, Shares: 37 297620, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2699
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:11.63 (7.9% "buys"),DlyShts 14100 (04.36%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 4.74%

For those concerned with a share issuance based on closing prices, here's a few periods with VWA close and a 10% discount through today: 30 day 0.2960, 0.2664; 40 day 0.3030, 0.2727; 60 day 0.3256, 0.2930.

We held up pretty good, price-wise, through 14:45 with a buy:sell of 1:5.39 (15.65% "buys) and A VWAP of $0.2747 on volume of 162820, ~50.4% of day's final volume. Then we went over an hour with no trades and little movement in the bids and asks. At 15:53 it looks like some LARGER seller decided to take whatever bids were stacked up and, through 15:59, soaked up 160.3K shares (~49.6% of day's volume) at a VWAP of $0.2668, all "sells". The disturbing thing was it started taking bids at $0.27 on "normal" trade sizes and just took everything one after the other on increasing trade sizes (hitting 39.7K on the last $0.27 trade) and then took the $0.26xx trades on 61.7K shares.

Nothing like dedicated participants to make sure the job gets done, huh? This was one of the better "late-day weakness" episodes as it took out bids at $0.27 that had been standing in line for several days with volume increased a bit over that time, and most of the $0.26 bids too.

Fortunately our LDWOO (Late Day Wizard Of OZ) came in for 100 shares at $0.28, leaving us down only 1.72% from Thursday's close instead of the -->> (8.74%) <<-- that is reality.

AS others have expressed, ISTM that other than regular investors are engaging in this sort of price-destructive behavior.

So I think I'll just quit right here until I see signs that any sort of TA at all, which is intended to reflect investor sentiment, along with some trader sentiment, might actually be useful again, as when we could see the signs of the beginning of our grind up from November.

Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.

03/28/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 22, MinTrSz: 800, MaxTrSz: 14000, Vol 101815, AvTrSz: 4628
Min. Pr: 0.2760, Max Pr: 0.2850, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2805
# Buys, Shares: 11 43315, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2831
# Sells, Shares: 11 58500, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2786
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:1.35 (42.5% "buys"), DlyShts 15000 (14.73%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 25.64%

I'm pretty pleased with today's behavior because it was as expected - always a comfort to me. Although I expressed some concerns yesterday, I wrapped up with "... it appears a move is less likely right now than before. Since we have entered short-term consolidation, we have a shortened week, ... we might easily get into the early part of April before this "log jam" is broken". And I mentioned "... Continued consolidation behavior seems supported by the oscillators I watch doing what they've been doing - up a little, down a little, up a little, ... All more or less around fairly neutral readings ...".

We were actually looking better than expected through 14:37: buy:sell was 1.90:1 and VWAP was $0.2821 on 53.7K shares volume. And this was even with everybody, sort of, trying to participate on the sell side: ATDF, NITE, UBSS, CDEL all spent some time at the top of the "leader board" on the ask side. But the typical late-day weakness began, led by ATDF, and we ended as you see above - still not too bad IMO.

Anyway, with a narrowing price spread and reducing volume continuing, it appears that at least a few more days of consolidation might be in store unless ...

We are on our way to a medium-term or longer consolidation, which I think is possible as we await financing news, or some of our action was EOQ-related and the new quarter frees some folks to do things not related to EOQ (I have no idea if this affects AXPW or not), or financing news hits relatively quickly and provides impetus for a move based on either a sigh of relief or disappointment.

On the traditional TA front there is some support for continued consolidation ATM. The oscillators I watch continue mixed with most around neutral readings. My experimental 13-period Bollinger limits ($0.3053 and $0.2721) are converging more quickly now and have moved inside of some potentially key points, the upper below the 50 and 200-day SMA and the lower above $0.27 support line. The nice thing about the lower right now is that price lows are not pushing the lower; rather the lower Bollinger is rising to catch up with the low, which has risen marginally.

Using a standard 20-period Bollinger band, it's not quite as rosy: the upper limit is around $0.34 and "flattish" while the lower limit is $0.26 and falling. If a move to mid-point was attempted again at today's readings we'd hit our good old friend, $0.30. Anyway, the standard one is not showing convergence, and so is not suggesting an imminent move. But do keep in mind that a move to mid-point is not the only option - the bands suggest that movement to the limits is possible without violating two standard deviations. I seldom mention this, but it is a possible near-term move.

On my experimental charts stuff, average trade size finished in what I think is the lower range of typical "retail" size. With the low volume today, this is to be expected. Buy:sell is still weak, but the short-term averages are showing improvement, suggesting that we are progressing towards more normal readings. Daily short sales "spiked" up today, with percentage breaking through a descending trend line and above all the averages I track for it. However, with the low volume and it being, essentially, a one-day event I wouldn't read much into it. It is worth noting that we do have a very short-term trend higher though, so we might want to keep an eye on it to see if it turns into something notable. Right now I'm not expecting any sustained change.

On my original experimental inflection point calculations, I still interpret them as "flattish". On my newer version, the three near-term calculations, 5, 10 and 25-day, are flat and the longer-term calculations, 50, 100 and 200-day, are beginning to curl up. For now, these should also be read as "flattish".

Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.

03/27/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 26, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 54000, Vol 192540, AvTrSz: 7405
Min. Pr: 0.2751, Max Pr: 0.3000, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2815
# Buys, Shares: 10 35850, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2879
# Sells, Shares: 16 156690, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2801
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:4.37 (18.6% "buys"), DlyShts 6500 (03.38%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 4.15%

Since we are concerned about financing and don't know if we'll get a strategic investor or not, I thought I'd add, for now, the 30, 40 and 60-day volume-weighted average closing prices, and discounted 10%, which ought to give us some clue where financing might go if we happen to be close to matching the measurement period.

30 day 0.3451 0.3106, 40 day 0.3405 0.3064, 60 day 0.3402 0.3062

I'm wondering if the financing might be agreed to already and they are just closing it after the EOQ? For bookkeeping purposes, that seems a reasonable thing to do.

My summary is it does look like we have entered short-term consolidation as we have highs stuck at $0.30, mentioned as one of our resistance points, and have lows staying, so far, at or above $0.27 for the last six days. Volume has trended slowly and erratically lower. I suggested a few days back that a move was looking more likely than not. With the increasing price spread, I can't say this is off the table yet. With the return today of "hitting the bid", indicated by the buy:sell, while the asks remained relatively stable in the mid-to-high $0.28xx range and bids holding >= $0.275, it appears a move is less likely right now than before. Since we have entered short-term consolidation, we have a shortened week, we have EOQ coming, ... we might easily get into the early part of April before this "log jam" is broken.

OTOH, anybody that's trying to "clean up" before EOQ that's not done it yet might dump today.

Continued consolidation behavior seems supported by the oscillators I watch doing what they've been doing - up a little, down a little, up a little, ... All more or less around fairly neutral readings. Price is pretty much in the middle of my experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, which are converging, and the 50-day SMA is beginning to pick up steam downward.

BTW, I just got reminded that our price activity is right around the mid-point of the $0.2018 low to the $0.38 high range. "Reversion to the mean" seems alive and well.

A couple of notable trades today, reminded by Occam's_Razor's comment today about big bids. These "hit the bid" and were all "sells". I can't say all were part of a single trade, but the close proximity of time and price make me suspect some of them were: 11:37-11:41 $0.2800 x 12990, $0.2803 x 5100, $0.2810 x 35000 and $0.2811 x 10000; 13:51-13:52 $0.2800 x 54000 and $0.2801 x 10000.

Because of that first group, at 11:58 we had a buy:sell of 1:32.26, with 74840 shares traded. That first group accounted for 84.3% of shares traded to that time. It's worth noting that even with that larger group in the afternoon, our buy:sell improved substantially from this point, but is still in weak territory.

On my experimental charts stuff, those large trades moved the average trade size into the high area of what I suspect is retail and above all the averages. Volume ended above the 25-day average and below all the others and daily short sales continued very low.

Most of the periods on my original inflection point calculations got "flipped" again, so they show less strength. Over the last few days it looks like the would net-out to "flattening". My newer version is much better at reflecting the reality ATM: the three shorter periods leave no doubt that we are "flattening" and the three longer-term periods reflect the weakening relative to those time-frame calculations.

Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points omitted from the concentrator.

03/26/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 33, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 10000, Vol 89377, AvTrSz: 2708
Min. Pr: 0.2800, Max Pr: 0.2950, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2875
# Buys, Shares: 19 48693, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2915
# Sells, Shares: 14 40684, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2827
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1.20:1 (54.5% "buys"), DlyShts 5977 (06.69%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 14.69%

In summary, I believe we are seeing signs of entering short-term consolidation. Right now, buyers and sellers seem well-balanced, with sellers being less aggressive on the pricing and hitting the bids, and buyers seemingly willing to take a little more risk at these price levels. I think both sides of the market are assessing the likelihood of big negative moves as unlikely and feel that appreciation in a reasonable time-frame seems more likely.

The bids action today was generally a very positive one - stayed >= $0.28 all day and had several excursions into the $0.29 area. The asks were similar, with bids >= $0.29 all day. When you combine this with the big improvement in the buy:sell, you can see a lot of bullish sentiment surfacing.

This also answers my concern about exhaustion of sellers at the price level - it seems that those willing to release shares down in the $0.27 range have been indeed exhausted while the buyers have not been exhausted at these slightly higher prices and do have some powder to deploy. A snapshot of recent VWAPs might be useful here.

$0.3161, $0.3062, $0.2945, $, $0.2913, $0.2907, $0.2833, $0.2780, $0.2835, $0.2819, $0.2813, $0.2850 and $0.2875 today.

Unfortunately, volume was very weak here - not what we'd like to see on price rising - so we need to temper our bullish assessment a bit until volume supports the bullishness.

This leads to thinking we are entering a short-term consolidation ATM. Traditional TA seems to support that as we see price spread narrowing with a lower high and higher low on reduced volume.

On a change in trend this low volume would be common as folks await confirmation that a change has come - consolidation likely in progress. This supported by converging Bollinger limits, now $0.2662 and $0.3213, and our mid-point is ~$0.2938. Additionally, all the oscillators I watch showed small improvement and all are pretty much at neutral readings. Most are showing signs of continued rising, but I expect this to taper off if we remain in consolidation.

We also have a "northern doji" candlestick, typically thought to be a bearish reversal indicator. But Bulkowski notes that 51% of the time it acts as a continuation. The uptrend is a very short one, thus far, so I don't know just how much significance should be given to this candlestick. Add in that it's really an almost random action following this ... Regardless, it's a short-term indicator of indecision, another consolidation indicator.

Last, the MACD histogram also supports a consolidation view as it continues to show improvement. It's still in negative territory, but not by much and should move to neutral in just a few days.

On a decidedly concerning issue, that darn 50-day SMA, $0.3154, is accelerating downward much faster than the 200-day, $0.3077, and will start going parabolic down in three days unless some price movement up, to a substantial degree, is seen. The risk, of course, is that a "death cross" will occur soon and some folks may respond to that. Unfortunately, if I'm assessing things correctly, we will be continuing to consolidate, which means no substantial price rise is likely. Even if I'm off, we'll encounter resistance at $0.30, which would likely prevent the degree of appreciation that is needed. That resistance might be weaker now, due to both a reduction of sellers left at that level and the effect of the quarterly results report.

On my experimental charts stuff, we see the average trade size has dropped below what I consider normal retail range - more consolidation suggestion. As mentioned, the buy:sell did move back into a normal range, but it is neutral ATM at that near-50% reading. Volume is below all the averages again.

My original experimental inflection point calculations did begin to recover, as I suggested was possible, near-term. We're now in a waiting mode again as the patterns develop. My newer version, which you may recall reacted in a less dramatic fashion by just "flattening" some, has also begun to make small moves towards its prior trend, which was strengthening. In terms of short-term results, it seems this one more accurately predicted the price action, being "flattish", than the original did.

Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.

03/25/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 58, MinTrSz: 400, MaxTrSz: 83600, Vol 355680, AvTrSz: 6132
Min. Pr: 0.2771, Max Pr: 0.3000, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2850
# Buys, Shares: 19 83400, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2960
# Sells, Shares: 39 272280, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2817
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:3.26 (23.4% "buys"), DlyShts 4000 (01.12%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 1.47%

Summary: lots of sellers offset, to a large degree, by lots of bullish buyers. A good sign, IMO. The only real question, for "what's next", is whether the sellers, that started selling many days ago and continued today, are near exhaustion at this price level. The late-day recovery from some seriously horrible looking action early on makes me think this may be the case. A minor concern is whether the bullish folks still have the wherewithal to continue adding at or above current levels. If we have new buyers entering, it seems likely. If most buying was the "old guard", I suspect not.

I'll be watching the next several days for continuation of strength or loss of it.

The day started roughly. Through 13:09 we had a buy:sell of 1:19.42 with a VWAP of $0.2820. As seen by the EOD metrics above, we improved quiet a bit thereafter. Because I believe a lot of today's behavior was a continuation of sellers that had previously decided to exit, and saw nothing in the CC that made them change their mind, I won't do too much TA today.

The asks by the sellers held up well until 12:08, but it made little difference as the predominate action was hitting the bids, evidenced by the buy:sell through 13:09. It was actually much worse than that though - through 12:06 the buy:sell was 1:71.09 on volume of 216,280 shares (60.81% of day's volume, helped out by someone delivering ~100K shares to Poul), but the VWAP was $0.2827. My assessment was there was some selling pressure. |:-\ The VWAP was maintained primarily because the bids remained relatively strong, >=$0.28 through 10:41. From there through 12:38 they were in the $0.275x-$0.277x area before coming back to >= $0.28 again at 13:44, where they remained, even hitting $0.29 briefly at 15:10, before dropping back to the $0.277x area somewhere around 15:23.

Of course, this late-day action on the bids made less difference because the action had switched to bullish with a very high percentage of trades going at the ask, which remained >= $0.28, and with a lot of time spent at $0.299x and even $0.30, through the majority of the latter part of the day. That's why we see the dramatic improvement in both the buy:sell and VWAP by EOD. Keep in mind this is even more impressive because Poul's trade was both a "sell" to him and was earlier in the day, ~10:34, so the late day action wasn't skewed by a large trade.

A little TA ... A higher low and higher high on relatively high volume and we ended with "gravestone doji". Regardless, Bulkowski points out that it actually portends a bearish move only 51% of the time and price movement afterward is not all that impressive on the down move. It's best performance, meeting price target, comes in a break up out of a bear market. So even if we get a move down, he suggests that it usually won't move far. A common 10-day gain, if we move up, is 5%+ over 10 days, considered by him to be quite good performance.

Price continued to move away from my experimental 13-period lower Bollinger, fulfilling the hint from past days that price might not make the full six days of "pushing" the lower Bollinger. Stochastic, MFI and ADX related all showed improvement while the other oscillators I watch weakened. This mixed action is understandable given all the above described action.

Price also continued its departure from the 0.88%/day descending line I had been watching.

50-day SMA is accelerating downward. Without some price move up, we will shortly get a "death cross". It's hard to estimate when because both that and the 200-day are moving downward at different rates.

The MACD histogram has stopped improving - not unexpected. But it is flat ATM, not deteriorating yet.

On my experimental charts, just want to mention that average trade size, no doubt skewed by Poul's trade, is solidly in the mid-range of what I think is retail and actually exceeded all the averages I track on that. Daily short sales are in the absurdly low range again.

My original inflection point calculations weakened, as we should expect, but not as much as I thought they would. We might see a quick recovery to showing strengthening again if the bullish action I thought I saw today carries through.

My newer version, which includes some additional factors, showed less negative effect. Visually, it looked more like a mixed flattening for the moment. This may be a good test of whether this is an improvement over the original or not - ISTM that it more closely matches my assessment of what I saw in the bid, ask and trading action today. Let's hope that I and the chart aren't both wrong.

Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points in the latest daily post above.

03/22/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 49, MinTrSz: 300, MaxTrSz: 20000, Vol 197489, AvTrSz: 4030
Min. Pr: 0.2700, Max Pr: 0.2895, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2813
# Buys, Shares: 36 146459, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2842
# Sells, Shares: 12 41030, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2711
# Unkn, Shares: 1 10000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.2800
Buy:Sell 3.57:1 (74.2% "buys"), DlyShts 3700 (01.87%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 9.02%

On the traditional TA front let us first put the obvious unwarranted bullish "dragonfly doji" candlestick to rest. Bulkowski notes it is followed by a bullish reversal 50% of the time. This means we must look to other factors to estimate "what's next". That's not easy in the first place with this stock and is made more difficult with an unexpected earlier release of the quarterly results possibly affecting short-term behavior and a conference call on the agenda for Monday. The "prognostication" seems to be only available in the MACD and my experimental stuff ATM, both discussed below.

We had lower high and low, again pushing the low through that descending, at 0.88%/day, line I'd been watching. On a positive note, our low did not continue to push my experimental 13-period lower Bollinger, $0.2684 and rising now. Recall that my memory says we tend to push it for six days, generally. An early break from that behavior may be a positive indicator. If we make a simple move to the mid-point of the Bollingers we would see ~$0.298 with today's readings. But the upper band is dropping fast now, so we should expect a lower mid-point even just a day out if we use the Bollinger bands to estimate a move.

Most of the oscillators continued their recent behavior, not really doing much of note except for stochastic and momentum. These two reversed to strengthen a bit with both just below neutral at ~47 and ~96 respectively.

$0.27 has proven to be relatively steady support thus far. Without help from the oscillators, we'll have to look elsewhere to take a stab at if it will continue to hold. One promising thing is the volume. Since the last bump up against, and rejection by, the rising support (now resistance) of the old former rising trading channel begun in November, the volume has declined, has risen as we first hit $0.27 and then begun to fall again. This is typical of nearing the end of churn, or consolidation. We've had a narrowing price spread only three days and it has not been substantial yet. Without the price spread narrowing substantially, I conclude that a move out of this range is more likely than not, near-term.

Haven't looked at the MACD for a while - it's signal and average are trending down but the histogram is showing improvement. Last time I touched on this I noted that the low of that period hadn't gone below the prior low of the histogram and so the long-term uptrend DRich had noticed was likely still in play. Well, we've got that same situation again - since the histogram low in February the two subsequent lows have been consecutively slightly higher. So I would think that is still suggesting the long-term improvement is underway. It'll take some time for the signal line to cross it's average, but it's looking promising ATM.

In the near-term, this supports what I'm seeing on one part of my experimental charts - I snuck (old school - now I guess it's "sneaked") a peak. Anyway, first the parts that aren't supported by the MACD behavior ...

The average trade size today is at what I think is the low end of "retail". Daily short sales fell back into the range of absurdly low. The VWAP price continues to haltingly ratchet downwards, albeit it looks like it may have bottomed: $0.3161, $0.3062, $0.2945, $0.2913, $0.2907, $0.2833, $0.2780, $0.2835, $0.2819 and $0.2813.

On the positive side ...

The buy percentage, which I previously mentioned had been improving, moved into the absurdly high range. Although good, until we have some typical range long enough to move the averages back into normal areas, I'm somewhat suspicious this might just be a combination of the quarterly results release combined with folks seeing little further downside risk at these low price levels. Like me, they may be thinking it's unlikely to hit $0.2018 again and that $0.25 defines the downside risk. With appropriate stops, a reasonable quarterly report and a conference call coming, a gamble on really decent upside potential against a minimal downside potential might be just the ticket for many folks.

This makes me leery that we might have seen some traders, rather than investors, entering the fray. Of course, investors want good prices too, so there's no way to know.

The sellers started the day off typically, including the usual suspects plus ARCA, lowering the ask price consistently, AFAICT from my "snapshots", to fight to be at the front of the sell line. This lasted into the lunch hour. This lead to a VWAP of $0.2775 and a buy:sell of 1.73:1 (63.4%) through 12:24. This is notable for the fact that buy:sell was positive - the sellers were NOT willy-nilly hitting the bids. Instead they were tussling with each other get to the front of the sell line because they could (apparently) see that the buyers would pony up a wee bit. After 12:24 the sellers changed their behavior and started frequently letting the asks rise and remain "elevated". The results of this had no negative effect on the buyers, as seen in the ending buy:sell and VWAP combination - reasonably improved.

That's a big change from some of the recent behavior where we typically see late-day weakness. Instead we got late-day strength, as far as ask-prices go and sellers not hitting the bid.. The buyers also exhibited changed behavior - "bottom-feeding" was out of vogue today as buyers "stepped up" nicely.

My original experimental inflection point calculations continue ... No! They have stopped exhibiting declining rate of weakening and switched to showing increasing strength in the bullish sentiment. Five of the six periods are in agreement, visually, and are supported by the numbers I look at for five-day changes and average change over five-days. Another day or two and we should have a signal confirmed if things don't deteriorate in the market.

On the newer version, we are in the same situation - instead of reducing weakness, we are beginning to show increasing bullish sentiment.

If I wasn't trying to be so conservative with these two experimental tools I would be calling an early signal now. This would definitely be a risky time to do so though.

Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points in the latest daily post above.

03/21/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 55, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 30000, Vol 314845, AvTrSz: 5724
Min. Pr: 0.2750, Max Pr: 0.2979, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2819
# Buys, Shares: 29 173721, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2814
# Sells, Shares: 26 141124, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2824
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1.23:1 (55.2% "buys"), DlyShts 35494 (11.27%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 25.15%

Well, had a lower high and higher low, and that's most of the day's good news. Well, not quite. Our low departed from my experimental 13-period lower Bollinger, $0.2666 today, rather than pushing on it - I suspected two more days of pushing it based on past behavior. The low also came back up to sit right on that descending support (the one that dropped 0.88%/day) that was broken. I think it's just a "co-inky-dink" though (regardless of what Jethro Gibbs says about them). Believe it or not, the sellers were somewhat restrained today. I actually saw the best ask RISE a couple of times today. This may have been an accident ... or the result of a little more support by the buyers as we saw the buy:sell ...

TA-DA! Exceed 50% relatively early in the day and finish at 1.23:1 (55.2%), the second time since 3/4. At 12:43 we weren't so good - 1:1.79. By 14:08 we hit 1.58:1. I suspect this particular move was the result of a bull accumulating (see below comment link). The improvement follows my note yesterday that we had three consecutive days of an improving ratio. Today makes it four.

I'm sure the sellers noticed and did two things I could observe: lowered the bids a little slower and a little less on average, and hit the bids a little less frequently, waiting instead, for a few seconds longer, for someone to hit the ask before taking action. But we did have competition for the top spot going on the ask side most of the day, with some less frequent MMs involved - ARCA made an appearance several times, as did the usual (recently) UBSS, CDEL and NITE. We needn't mention ATDF.

Giving credit where due, the buyers seemed a bit more willing today too. Most of the day the bids stayed above $0.27, usually in the mid-to-upper range of that and even went to $0.28 and $0.29 several times earlier in the day. We had one period where I saw what I thought was someone taking a bullish position ahead of the quarterly report and commented on it. It was 94.2K, with another 50K possible. No way to know for sure, but it looked like it to me.

The bad news is we closed down 6.43% and at the low of the day, $0.275. Until 15:31 our low was $0.2751. At 15:31, someone hit the $0.276 bid for 2.6K, exposing the $0.275x8K bid, which also got hit. From there through EOD we traded at that price, generously helped by an ATDF offer at $0.275 x 179.4K that appeared at 15:45 and lingered. We have a "gravestone doji" candlestick, viewed as negative. But Bulkowski notes it is followed by a down move only 51% of the time. Since we had lower volume (357.6K, ~399.4K Tue. & Wed.) than the prior two days, I think the more likely behavior Friday is to tend towards flattish.

The oscillators, except for stochastic, all weakened a bit more. With intra-day VWAP weakening a bit from $0.2835 to $0.2819, this seems reasonable.

Some price range statistics that show continued willingness by sellers to "let go low" and buyers seeing a good risk I think:
$0.2750-$0.2750: 017197 shares, 05.46% of volume, VWAP $0.2750
$0.2751-$0.2791: 161804 shares, 51.39% of volume, VWAP $0.2785
$0.2800-$0.2841: 046430 shares, 14.75% of volume, VWAP $0.2805
$0.2850-$0.2879: 028000 shares, 08.89% of volume, VWAP $0.2854
$0.2900-$0.2940: 050664 shares, 16.09% of volume, VWAP $0.2908
$0.2979-$0.2979: 010750 shares, 03.41% of volume, VWAP $0.2979

On my experimental charts front, average trade size is up at the two longer term averages, right in the middle of what I believe to be "retail" trading, and, as mentioned above, the buy percentage moved above 50%. Volume remains above all the averages, and the daily short sales more-than-doubled off the recent lows but are still far below what I believe will be normal in the long-haul.

My original experimental inflection point calculations continue to show a reduction in weakening, with five of the six period calculations improving, along with all six 5-day moves and their average percentage change. My newer version has the same five of six improvements on the daily calculation, but only three of the 5-day moves. I've begun to gain some faith in this newer version and would not make any serious assessments using either version just now. Both show emerging patterns that eventually may lead to a signal of an up move in price, but aren't there yet.

Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.

03/20/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 77, MinTrSz: 150, MaxTrSz: 37400, Vol 399349, AvTrSz: 5186
Min. Pr: 0.2700, Max Pr: 0.3000, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2835
# Buys, Shares: 47 170849, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2888
# Sells, Shares: 30 228500, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2796
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:1.34 (42.8% "buys"), DlyShts 21150 (05.30%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 9.26%

Well, the PR today about the full automation, from carbon sheets to electrodes, saved us, IMO, from continued price damage. Buyers stepped up a little bit, allowing the sellers to be a little less aggressive in battling to be at the head of the sell line. But I have no doubt that the sellers were still anxious to "Get out of Dodge" today. This is evidenced by both a buy:sell that's still weighted to the sell side even with what should be seen as positive news, and the continued increase in volume without a substantial VWAP gain - we got only 1.98% improvement. If "Get out of Dodge" wasn't the M.O., either volume should have dropped as sellers decided to await potential better prices, or greater VWAP gain should have been seen as buyers became more aggressive, or both. Conversely, a greater volume with stronger VWAP appreciation could also have discounted that seller M.O. Look at where the weight lies below.

$0.2700-$0.2700: 001300 shares, 00.33% of volume, VWAP $0.2700
$0.2752-$0.2799: 100750 shares, 25.23% of volume, VWAP $0.2773
$0.2800-$0.2830: 138500 shares, 34.68% of volume, VWAP $0.2801
$0.2850-$0.2895: 057799 shares, 14.47% of volume, VWAP $0.2861
$0.2900-$0.2940: 071935 shares, 18.01% of volume, VWAP $0.2913
$0.2950-$0.2989: 024000 shares, 06.01% of volume, VWAP $0.2974
$0.3000-$0.3000: 005065 shares, 01.27% of volume, VWAP $0.3000

All this is leading to my assessment that we likely had a one-day wonder here. I say this in light of what happened with the ePower PR, which had a very short beneficial effect, and the over two-week running inability to have a buy:sell that leans towards bullish: only one day of buys >= 50% since 3/4's 85.9%. The fact that today's PR apparently didn't affect selling sentiment, except to let them get out with a little more skin intact, suggests that we must have buyers again step up to prevent any price slide for the next two days ... or more.

Maybe I'm overly pessimistic now though. Maybe the traditional TA stuff will change my mind ...

Well, we had a close of +6.87% - certainly nothing to sneeze at - from yesterday's close, a ha'-penny off the low. Today's low matched yesterday's and gave us a fourth day of "pushing" my 13-period lower Bollinger, suggesting another two days or so of weakness, if past behavior is a valid indication. Our volume was up only 11.68% over yesterdays, which was relatively high volume on a decidedly negative day - I would have hoped that today's volume would've CRUSHED yesterday's. What this means to me is that bottom-feeding is still predominately the buyers' M.O. I don't blame them - if folks know that some want to dump, a buyer naturally wants the best possible price. So I expect tomorrow will still have folks dumping and bottom-feeding going on. So I'm not expecting strong bullishness. I'll hazard that folks still worry about the usual things - capital raise, a less-than-stellar report, ...

Regardless of the higher volume, close and VWAP not one oscillator I follow was able to transition into bullish territory yet. All did show improvement, as we could expect.

Our high stopped at a known prior resistance, $0.30 and immediately retreated, not what I would expect from strong bullish sentiment.

I'm thinking that potential buyers are out of powder, as has been suggested, and/or newer folks considering entry still want to see sustained price movement, sales, a great report, ...

On my experimental charts, average trade size stayed at the mid-point of what I believe to be retail, just like yesterday. The buy:sell is improving steadily now - four days in a row up, in percentages: 0.125, 0.254, 0.267 and 0.428. None of my prices - low, VWAP and high - could make it back to calculated trend.

My original inflection point calculations have started to show early indications of trying to stop the down trend they have been reflecting. Four of the six periods show small improvement, and the 5-day change has 5 showing improvement. My newer version, which I hope proves more reliable and prescient, has six of six periods showing improvement along with all six of the 5-day change values.

Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.

03/19/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 63, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 27500, Vol 357598, AvTrSz: 5676
Min. Pr: 0.2700, Max Pr: 0.2851, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2780
# Buys, Shares: 21 95562, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2805
# Sells, Shares: 42 262036, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2771
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:2.74 (26.7% "buys"), DlyShts 14793 (04.14%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 5.65%

On 3/15, when looking for a potential bottom and noting that we had reverted to the mean on that day, ~$0.2909, I also said " If we use a Fibonacci 61.8% re-trace instead, we get $0.2588. Lots of folks believe in the Fibonacci series, but I find the 50% mark to be a much more frequent occurrence". And I have mentioned a couple times that if we didn't hold around that $0.29 area the $0.275-$0.27 looked like the next stop, although I didn't know how strong it would be because that range was just some lows in some sideways trading.

We're there now. The continued hitting the bid, evidenced by our continued bad buy:sell ratio, combined with today's apparent seller capitulation (as they began wholesale fighting to have the lowest ask) and the higher volume (over twice yesterday's 25-day average of ~169.4K) may offer ... Optimism? Pessimism? I don't know. The volume may suggest the end of trend, but it has no support in this assessment yet.

I've thought a couple times in the recent past we might have flushed the sellers out and it's not proven to be the case. The factors I mention - volume, asks being lowered and the bad buy:sell - would normally lead me to think we've exhausted the sellers at this price level ... again. But in the current environment, with the quarterly report on the horizon and (apparently) few folks expecting any good news, I'm not now going to guess that exhausted sellers is the case. Nor am I going to guess that many buyers are willing to step up.

What I am going to guess at is that Fibonacci $0.25xx will be the next stop if we don't see buyers step up. The willingness of the sellers to drop their asks rapidly today suggests that they are in "Get out of Dodge" mode. If buyers don't step up we've got two occurrences of $0.25xx where we might pause, although in standard TA I wouldn't claim these as strong reversal points - they are equivalent to the $0.27xx area we are now in. With the sellers in total control it's looking like we might accomplish (if you want to call it that) a 100% re-trace from low to high to low - $0.2018 - again.

If we observe volume declining and the sellers stop hitting the bid and don't rapidly lower the asks, then I'll begin to suspect we are near a bottom. If we see buyers begin to step up more strongly, I'll also be able to suspect a bottom is near.

The oscillators I follow are continuing weak(ening) with RSI and stochastic (strengthened about 10% today) just above oversold and MFI and Williams %R in oversold. Strangely, momentum stayed essentially flat with yesterday at ~90.

I have no trend lines in play now except the long-term descending resistance, currently at ~ $0.3620.

On my experimental charts stuff, average trade size is what I think is mid-retail, buy:sell and its averages continue in a declining trend, and volume exceeded all its averages today. If a volume "spike" suggests end of trend, this may be the day's only potential positive. But it has no support yet.

Both versions of my experimental inflection point calculations continue to weaken without any signs of "forming up" to issue a positive signal in the near-term.

Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.

03/18/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 54, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 13830, Vol 204330, AvTrSz: 3784
Min. Pr: 0.2800, Max Pr: 0.2999, VW Avg. Tr. Pr:0.2833
# Buys, Shares: 20 51900, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2866
# Sells, Shares: 34 152430, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2821
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:2.94 (25.4% "buys"), DlyShts 10830 (05.30%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 7.10%

I summarize today as still nothing (much) positive showing anywhere. Several things deteriorated a bit from Friday's state. The pretty-much constant hitting the bid is about to get on my last nerve. We've had only one positive buy:sell in 10 trading days - since 3/4. If you look at my charts, especially the buy:sell and its averages, your nerves might match mine. So I recommend avoiding looking at them for now.

Our "big uglies" apparently have been replaced by a bunch of "mini-uglies". This is suggested by the fact that fails-to-deliver for the second part of February (updated my charts today - will post later) only had one fail day, 2/27 (trade date was 2/22) with 991 shares, and it was cleared the next day. Daily short sales were very low, price was weakening and buy:sell was trending lower during this time.

I wonder what Special Situations and some of the other "usual suspects" were doing.

I'm tired ... of this. The sellers have been pretty relentless in hitting the bid. The result, as we could expect, is my latest potential trend support line, ~$0.2901, is now confirmed as broken with a close below it. Next potential supports are price-point lows of $0.275-$0.27. These were just lows in areas of sideways trading, so I don't know how much strength they'll show. My near-term descending trend, falling at ~0.88%/day, that was supporting the lows is also busted, apparently. Today it was ~$0.2825, IIRC, and the lows penetrated that line a second consecutive day. We are "pushing" my experimental 13-period lower Bollinger limit, $0.2794, for the second day and, IIRC, we tend to push it around six days normally.

All but two of the oscillators I watch weakened again. The exceptions were, strangely to me, momentum, which improved from ~0.882 to ~0.904 - still below neutral - and stochastic which stayed flat, barely above oversold. MFI is well into oversold at ~13. If price doesn't start to recover tomorrow, the 50-day SMA will start to weaken more quickly, as will the 200-day. It won't accelerate as quickly as the 50-day though.

Offsetting, maybe, some of that negative reading is the fact that I saw good support at $0.28 today in both trades and bids. There were times bids at $0.28 totaled over 100K and dropped to lower volumes only as MMs (usually ATDF, of course) moved their bid up to get to the head of the line. This action hid the lower bid(s) from ATDF on Level II at $0.28 and they would re-appear when the higher bid disappeared. The lowest ask seen was $0.285, in small volume. Most trades below that were folks just hitting the bids.

On my experimental stuff, average trade size is again at the low end of what I think is retail, the buy:sell showed small improvement but is still very weak and well below its longer-term readings. I had mentioned a couple days back that the intra-day price low had contacted the calculated trend and last time this happened it had ridden it sideways for six days and started an up leg. Well, that's broken now too. Volume is flat and still low.

My original experimental inflection points have reverted to continuing to suggest weakness for now. Looking at the numbers, which had been suggesting a deceleration, I can't discern if that's changed because the various periods are mixed in what they are now doing. My newer version is the same - suggesting continuing weakness and I can''t tell if it's suggesting a change in rate now or not.

Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.

03/15/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 39, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 19700, Vol 210470, AvTrSz: 5397
Min. Pr: 0.2810, Max Pr: 0.3039, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2907
# Buys, Shares: 8 26240, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2952
# Sells, Shares: 31 184230, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2901
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:7.02 (12.5% "buys"), DlyShts 0 (0.00%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 0.00%

Interesting that on a high-volume day with "heavy" selling, there were exactly 0 daily short sales. I suspect this supports one of my stated possibilities regarding MMs (playing short-term long positions, doing covering buys at low prices after short sales at higher prices, being wholly-owned by brokers there are more (mostly?) intra-broker trades, now-available computerized facilities effectively place the broker-held shares under control of brokers' wholly-owned MMs, or a combination of these).

Yesterday I mentioned "... I've got a descending - at 0.88%/day - support we are apparently riding lower. We've bottomed on this line 3 of the last six days. Tomorrow's potential support would be ~$0.285 if that line holds". Monday's support by that line should be ~$0.2825.

Although I generally try to keep my TFH stuff at bay here ...

TFH & DOWNDRAFT STUFF OMITTED FROM CONCENTRATOR!

In the concentrator some folks commented on observed price action over time that could be interpreted as someone trying to suppress price. This might provide support to that hypothesis. Prior to a single 5K trade of $0.281 at 15:57:21, our low was $0.2878, well above my best read of that descending support line. VWAP was $0.2909 on ~204.5K shares traded. This was 4/100ths of a penny below yesterday's VWAP. So we had been holding up well, considering a down day with increasing volume. My last prior look at bid/ask, 15:38, showed $0.281x20K/$0.295x4K. So:
- with ~1.5 cent spread;
- prior intra-day low at $0.2878 (caused by a 33K 3-trade selling at 15:06 with a VWAP of ~$0.288);
- the intra-day VWAP >$0.29 (sans the 33K and the 5K, would be $0.2915, 2/100ths above yesterday's)
- who would "hit the bid" without at least trying an ask at a better intermediate price?

I don't know. Spooked retailer? Market-maker? A manipulator? Day-trader? Lot's of possibilities.

All this discussion is to lead to my conclusion that the $0.285 would be intact if not for the "aberrant behavior". :-)) Since that 5k trade was less than 2.4% of the volume and was a single late-day trade, I think that descending ~0.88%/day support is still intact. This puts support at ~$0.2825 for Monday.

Last regarding that ... Without that 5K trade the price low would have begun a departure from that descending support, suggesting at least a slowing of the downdraft (more on that below) and possibly a start of some sideways trading before another move (up?). Do you think "The Suppressor" reads the concentrator or my instablog?

To be fair, we should also note today, as with many days, a small last-minute trade comes in that seems designed to keep the close as elevated as possible. Today it was 1K @ $0.295. Without intra-day support that pushes asks higher, possibly overwhelming "The Suppressor" efforts to quash price, it's a rear-guard action, at best, because the closing price is left to the mercy of the seller willing to put in sufficient quantity of low-priced asks to overwhelm (limited) buying pressure. Valiant effort, but unlikely to alter the path much. The effort would be strongly aided by some timely PR from Axion that would bring in buyers off the sidelines, but we don't know the odds of that. Until then the (closing) price will be handled, sans buyers deciding this is an attractive price range, by sellers. John has touched on the effects of this several times.

Regarding our "downdraft" I worried about a few days back, it looks like it is nearing an end. "Why when price continues lower?" you ask. Well, the rate of price decline has slowed even though we had higher volume today. Our 210K volume was above the 25-day average I use, ~168.1K today, by ~25.2%. As we know from prior posts, our low has been descending only ~0.88%/day (compounded). At the same time our high has stayed "flat" at $0.3039-$0.3040. From 3/5's VWAP of $0.3388 to 3/12's VWAP of $0.3062, the compounded rate of decline was ~2.003%/day. From 3/12 through today's VWAP of $0.2907, our compounded rate of decline has been slightly less than ~1.72%/day, about a 14% (~1/7th) reduction in the rate of decline.

On to conventional TA ...

Our $0.288 potential support is still intact the last two days as Thursday's low and close were both right there and today's (Friday's) close was above it, even if we discount the last two (manipulative?) trades. Further, even discounting those trades we would've had a higher close on rising volume - $0.29 vs. $0.288. This is considered a bullish sign in traditional TA. If we do get a reversal off this a simple reversion to the mean would suggest ~$0.315 would be a seen.

Even if I don't discount that $0.281 5K trade (discussed in the part not posted in the concentrator), our descending support (down 0.88%/day) should be considered intact until confirmation is seen that it is NOT in play. Since "overshoots" of any trend line are quite common, confirmation of a break is needed.

Speaking of trend lines, I had recently identified another potential rising support to replace the recently failed one. It experienced an "overshoot" yesterday (Thursday) with a close below that line. But today we closed above it and, AFAICT, would have closed right on it at $0.29 if the last two (manipulative?) trades were discounted. After the earlier total of 33K shares traded at 13:06, price moved smartly back up to trade 35.4K (~17% of day's volume) in the $0.29-$0.30 range. So either way, we don't have confirmation this potential new rising trend line is "broken" yet. But if buyers don't step up to counteract the sellers, it will be broken quickly and we'll be looking at the $0.275-$0.27 range as next potential support.

Including those last two trades gives a close above that rising potential support.

Price has moved back into a range which will now let the 50-day SMA, $$0.3218, decline. If we don't get some appreciation to ~0.33 in the next couple of days, the 50-day will begin to accelerate downward. Fortunately, we still have a large gap, relatively, to the falling 200-day at $0.3099 so there's no immediate danger of a "Death Cross" IF PRICE CAN AT LEAST HOLD IN THIS RANGE! And this would be a "real" one with both SMAs declining and the 50-day falling more rapidly than the 200-day. Even then, we've got a tough row to hoe as the "tail" of the 50-day will be quickly moving to include some closes up in the $0.37 area for a couple of days before lower closes start coming into play again - about eight additional days for the tail to get back into the $0.32-$0.33 area.

Most of the oscillators I track have shown a small improvement today, but all are still well south of neutral. No bullish indications of any strength manifest yet.

On my experimental charts stuff, average trade size has recovered now to be right in the middle of what I think is "retail". We need to see it hold here or better to read anything into it though. I'm also concerned that this may be just an effect of the zero short sales - if MMs are in a long position with lower-cost shares they needn't work as hard to fill buy orders. Combined with the again falling "buy" percentage, I don't read this as bullish.

I had mentioned yesterday that our low had intersected the calculated trend line and generally rode that line sideways around six days and then started a rise. On;y if I discount the suspected two manipulative trades at EOD can I say price is still riding that line, which looks to be about $0.285 today, matching the descending trend line mentioned up in the traditional TA area.

A potential positive is that volume the last three days has been right around and above (especially today) the 10 and 25-day volume averages. The trend over the last four days is up. Unfortunately it is in conjunction with a price trend down - not a good sign.

My original experimental inflection point calculations lost it's "merest" hint of an upturn and is still suggesting weakness. Ditto for the newer version. However when I examine the actual numbers there is a divergence that may prove significant in the future: the newer version suggests a near-term reduction of the rate of weakening while the original suggest the opposite. Since the newer version considers factors not in the original, this makes sense. It also happens to match the behavior seen in the discussion of the rate of price change discussed when considering the "downdraft" above.

Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.

03/14/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 40, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 23000, Vol 183300, AvTrSz: 4583
Min. Pr: 0.2880, Max Pr: 0.3040, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2913
# Buys, Shares: 13 41500, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2942
# Sells, Shares: 27 141800, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2904
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:3.42 (22.6% "buys"), DlyShts 19000 (10.37%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 13.40%

My summary feeling for today is that we may (emphasis on may) have bottomed. The action from 14:06 onward was definite capitulation-like in nature. Several of the usual players did not participate in the ask-side plunge, suggesting that they may become the low asks in the >=$0.30 range if today flushed out the anxious types. Things that suggest possible (near) end of the down leg:
- 5-7 days down has been recent history followed by a turn up beginning;
- a $0.2018-$0.38 range reversion to the mean is $0.2909, we a got a little normal overshoot(?);
- recent support resulting in a reversal seen at $0.288-$0.289 and mid-$0.27 range before that;
- a new potential support (replacing the failed one) right here with an origin and three touches;
- re-traced ~50% of the $0.2018-$0.38 range 11/12-1/11 and dropped ~17% off the $0.35 high of 3/5;
- oscillators I watch are configured similarly to past occurrences preceding an upturn;
- a possible Elliot wave end, as Mayascribe identified, is right in this area;
- several "usual suspects" did not participate in yesterday's lemming rush and held asks steady >$0.30.

Downside risk, beyond the $0.27xx mentioned above, seems to be in the $0.25 and the $0.20 area, although I think this latter one is unlikely to be seen near-term. Looking at some details of today's action ...

I think the last three days, in aggregate, have been our "whoosh" that I feared might develop, although it's been a rather slow-motion one. We've dropped 17.7% since our high of $0.35 on 3/5, slightly more than half of it since the $0.3195 close on 3/11. And two of the last three days were above the 25-day average volume.

I expected low volume and continued price weakness today. Through 13:52 we had 7,675 shares traded at a VWAP of $0.2984, pretty much as expected. At 14:06, things changed and we traded another 175.6K at a VWAP of $0.2910 and made our low for the day at the close on 5K at $0.2880.

This action was started by a relatively infrequent participant, ARCA, at 14:06 when they entered a best ask of $0.295x13K when the current best from 14:00 was $0.3039x8K from ATDF. That almost one-penny drop in the ask was the catalyst. From then until the close it was a battle between ARCA, UBSS and ATDF to get to the head of the sell line. Other normally "semi-usual suspects", like NITE, CDEL and TEJS mostly held their asks unchanged above $0.30 and chose not to become part of the lemmings' race.

This action reminds strongly of putting in a bottom. It looks like the ARCA offer triggered a bunch of conditional or stop-loss orders. The timing would be about right too - generally our down legs since we entered the rising trading channel in November has been 5-7 days. Today was our 7th or 8th day down, depending on from which day you start counting. Just prior to entering our rising trading channel we had 17 days of mostly down, ending the leg with a low at $0.20 and a close at $0.235 on Nov. 12.

The oscillators I watch need little discussion - all stink. Momentum is as weak as it's ever been since 7/19/12. About half of these prior low points led to an upturn either immediately or after a sideways trade of a week or two. Williams %R and stochastic are now in oversold.

Well, that potential new support line wasn't - over the six days since we failed to push back above the old rising trading channel support (would be resistance now), we were steady down, penetrated the new potential line, putzed around there two days and departed southward decisively today. So it's certainly not in play. In looking for the trend, I've got a descending - at 0.88%/day - support we are apparently riding lower. We've bottomed on this line 3 of the last six days. Tomorrow's potential support would be ~$0.285 if that line holds.

I've also added another new potential slightly rising supporting trend line originating at the low of 12/14 with touches at lows of 1/2, 2/22-26 (three trading days) and 3/13. We closed slightly below it today - a normal overshoot? If we close below it a couple more days, it's out of play too. If we come back above, I think we have a confirmed support line that slowly rises.

Our low, and close, today was right at the low of 2/22-2/26 (three trading days) of $0.288-$0.289. It's possible we've found support there. Looking back over a one-year chart, there's several cases I see where it acted as support and resistance while we were in sideways trading.

If the two above don't hold, our nearest potential price support, from a recent area of sideways churn (while we were within our rising trading channel) would be around $0.275x-$0.27. But those areas are not "strong" as I see no other times on a one-year chart where they were in play and had influence.

If the Elliot Wave stuff Maya was kind enough to look at holds true, we won't go as low as $0.28 - but that was if we had identified the proper start of a wave and which wave it was and we don't get an overshoot of that too.

We are near my experimental 13-period lower Bollinger, but not yet pushing down on it. If a typical move to the middle were to appear, we would be moving back towards $0.31 with today's upper and lower values, $0.2826 and $0.3387.

While looking for where our bottom might be I reverted to the old, and reasonably reliable, "reversion to the mean" consideration. In many cases this has turned out to be at least temporary support and even provided some reversals. Using the low of 11/12/12, $0.2018 (coincidentally just before we started our two-month ride up in the ascending trading channel) and the high of $0.38 on 1/11/13, we get a mean of $0.2909. We're there, with a minor overshoot. If we use a Fibonacci 61.8% re-trace instead, we get $0.2588. Lots of folks believe in the Fibonacci series, but I find the 50% mark to be a much more frequent occurrence.

On my experimental stuff, we see the average trade size now has a trend of recovering to more normal levels. Today we got back into the low mid-range of what I think is retail. The buy:sell, although low, avoided going down to, and below, its recent lows.

The low is sitting right atop the calculated trend line for the new ~10-month chart. Last time it got to that trend line the price action was sideways for about 6 days and then we started a leg up to $0.35. Let's hope we get at least as good a result this time.

My original experimental inflection point calculations continue to weaken. My newer version is in agreement. The original has the merest early hint that we might be preparing to reverse. The newer version is giving a slightly stronger hinting of this on the near-term calculations, but a weakening on the longer-term calculations. The shorter-term ones reacting first is what I would expect. Three of them agree today.

Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.

03/12/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 41, MinTrSz: 400, MaxTrSz: 13000, Vol 193325, AvTrSz: 4715
Min. Pr: 0.2931, Max Pr: 0.3194, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.3062
# Buys, Shares: 17 51058, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3082
# Sells, Shares: 24 142267, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3055
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:2.79 (26.4% "buys"), DlyShts 13720 (07.10%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 9.64%

My summary for today is that we are at a known prior support, relative volume was high enough to suggest the possibility of an end to the sideways/down trend, but everything is suggesting lack of strength here. I think the next two days will give us a clue if we (don't?) see $0.30 hold with some strength, i.e. volume and improving buy:sell and, maybe, average trade size too.

Yesterday, while discussing the magician providing a late-day trade to keep the close higher and wondering if that just made the sellers hang in longer than they otherwise might trying to get the last fractional penny of profit, I said "Let's hope not, as a whoosh could result if there are a couple relatively large sellers there and they finally give up on trying to milk the last fractional penny out of what they mean to sell". Was today a "whoosh"? Is this the end of it, if so?

We closed down 6.1% at $0.30 but got as low as $0.2931 (-9.17% from prior close), with today's spread being 9.177%. We held up relatively well, with a low @ $0.31 through 14:35. At 14:36 we had 6.5K trade at $0.31 followed by 30 minutes of no trades. At 15:06 12.3K traded $0.3013-$0.3014 to start a drop. At 15:20 we traded 3K at $0.2931. 15:29 saw 9K at $0.2999 and at 15:31 we traded 6K at $0.30, to end the day.

So, looking at volume and price, I don't think this was a "whoosh", regardless of the percentage. There wasn't enough volume - not overall nor at the low prices.

But tomorrow is another day ...

The 50-day SMA, $0.3215, will continue to rise three more days if we hold at or above today's close. The 200-day is $0.3107 and still falling and we closed below it, considered a bearish signal. Price has been vacillating around the 200-day for the last couple of months. I assume it will continue to do so. Price range is fairly centered within my experimental 13-period Bollinger band.

Recall that we have a new potential rising support that was ~$0.301, AFAICT yesterday, and is still about there today. Since we bounced right back from the low to close at $0.30, about 1/10th cent below if my eyes aren't too far off, I think we can consider the close to be "right there". I think tomorrow and the following day tells us if this is support or not. We need to see price >=$0.301 (VWAP maybe, like today's $0.3062?) and some reasonable volume, even if we don't get a surge, which would be better of course.

The odds may not be good as all the oscillators I watch are now definitely weakening and most are below a neutral reading now. OTOH, our recent volume has been so low that today's ~193K, highest since 3/5, might qualify as a "spike", often signaling the end of a trend, in this case our sideways/down trend. I'd await confirmation though - just not enough here to make me think yesterday's "Could this indicate that sellers at this level are again exhausted?" has been answered.

We do know that $0.30 has provided support before getting a short-term bump up in the past and has been resistance just before starting a downward leg, both behaviors while in predominately sideways trading. This is our scenario now. If $0.30 doesn't hold, $0.288 demonstrated support recently, 2/22-26, with very low volume each day.

On my experimental charts front, average trade size bumped back to the low side of what I think is retail, but we don't see a trend yet that would suggest some strength coming back. Buy:sell was weak, but not abysmal and does seem to have a trend of slow improvement underway. Daily short sales remain low and my original experimental inflection point calculations continue to suggest weakness. On my newer version, all but the 5-day now agree on weakness. Since we had some "reasonable" volume come in, the recent price trend finally appears in the longer-term calculations, unlike yesterday when they were trying to get up to neutral.

Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.

03/11/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 22, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 8500, Vol 43325, AvTrSz: 1969
Min. Pr: 0.3100, Max Pr: 0.3197, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.3161
# Buys, Shares: 18 27825, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3194
# Sells, Shares: 4 15500, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3101
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1.80:1 (64.2% "buys"), DlyShts 4000 (09.23%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 25.81%

Well, the bid/ask action was unusually stable today and there was much less late-day weakness. With the low volume, it was somewhat surprising. If I didn't miss any, the low ask I saw was $0.3193 and the highest was $0.3198. This was both a much smaller range than typical and stayed generally further away from best bid, rather than collapsing towards the median, as is typical when ATDF/TEJS and NITE are on the pitch, as they were today.

Could this indicate that sellers at this level are again exhausted? Or is it a result of our late-day magician holding the price higher making potential sellers think they can get more and thereby causing lower volume as the sellers are reluctant to give up any fractional pennies because they see "strength"? Don't know. Let's hope not, as a whoosh could result if there are a couple relatively large sellers there and they finally give up on trying to milk the last fractional penny out of what they mean to sell.

OTOH, in the situation as we find it, the buyers were willing to move up towards the ask and pay it. The buy:sell recovery from the recent abysmal percentages of 0.859, 0.249, 0.219, 0.276, 0.157 and 0.642 (today) might be suggesting some reduced fear of a price move substantially lower ... if it was accompanied by volume, which it is not. We saw the best bid go as high as $0.3195, briefly while ask was $0.3198, but it quickly moved back to the low $0.31xx area and remained there but for another brief period at $0.3194 during the lunch hour when there were only two trades, the highest being $0.3193 for 8.5K going off while bid/ask was $0.31/$0.3194.

Again, the situation is (as always) unknown, but it does mean more caution should be included in any TA.

Having said that, the spread is compressing ATM with lower highs and higher lows. My potential new rising support (~$0.301?) is still in play, we are fairly centered in the Bollinger band and we are "pushing" on a rising 50-day SMA, $0.3213. With no volume it's not much of a push though. We're just below a demonstrated resistance seen 12/3-12/4 and a churn low "support" 2/1-2/11 before we took the exit from our rising trading channel begun in mid-November. If we're lucky, this will extend into a sideways move until intersecting the potential new rising support, whereupon it will find support and start to creep up. But that is tough to forecast with this low volume.

The oscillators are mixed again, as we would expect with directionless low-volume action. Some flattened, some started weakening (momentum weakened to 1.03) and stochastic continues its slow move towards oversold. None of the others warrant detailing today.

On my experimental charts, average trade size is below anything I would think even suggests typical retail buying or selling. We are currently moving "at the edges", which can't be a good thing. Buy:sell is better, but with this volume, sort of meaningless. My original inflection point calculations, which are volume-sensitive, remain disorganized with a negative bias. My newer version, which includes other factors, is moving towards a decidedly neutral stance ATM with longer-term trends up and shorter-term trends flat-to-down. In this configuration, no move or direction of price is suggested.

Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.

03/08/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 21, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 30000, Vol 136805, AvTrSz: 6515
Min. Pr: 0.3050, Max Pr: 0.3198, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.3092
# Buys, Shares: 12 21425, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3123
# Sells, Shares: 9 115380, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3086
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:5.39 (15.7%), DlyShts 4160 (03.04%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 3.61%

As mentioned yesterday, I thought we'd see either price appreciation or increased volume, but not both. We got the former, for which I'm grateful, but I don't see the rise sustaining until we get both at once. I think the continued weak "buy:sell" suggests this. Further, shares that were "buys" had a count tantalizingly close to yesterdays daily short volume of 29K. With yesterday's VWAP being $0.3126 and today's much lower (even the "buys" were lower today), MMs might have been making some covering buys for any shorts left open from yesterday at attractive prices, especially if today they acquired most on the "sell" side.

We had a notable bid of 75K @ $0.3099 put in today that eventually traded along with one additional 5K at that price. These will skew the average trade size up with this low volume along with the VWAP we see. Excluding these trades, volume would be 51.81K, average trade size would be 3,238 and VWAP would be $0.3080. This not to discount these trades at all, but rather to provide some context.

On the traditional TA front, we still have potential new rising trading channel in place as the new support line I recently added seems to be, so far, holding. But without some volume - and I'd really like to see one more re-test with it - I can't say if it appears "strong" or not. With declining volume these last four days there's likely to be another re-test and we'd want to see it hold with good volume, at least in the following days.

I'm even more insistent since the close would've been $0.305 if not for a single 100 share traded at the ask, $0.3198, just before the close. I feel (now "felt" since we had an implied "confession" in the APC) someone is trying to "lead" the market higher. If the close had been $0.305, as it should've been IMO, we would have an open, close and low all at $0.305 - a "Gravestone Doji" candlestick. The trading community sees this as a bearish reversal indicator but Bulkowski notes it is really random with a reversal actually occurring only 51% of the time.

The 50-day SMA is $0.3207, a tad above today's high. With the close at $0.3198, we buy another day of it rising. If we stay right here, we've got another seven days of it rising. We're still pretty much centered in my 13-period Bollingers.

Several of the oscillators I watch improved slightly, but in the range of "meh". Without volume I wouldn't place much trust in them anyway. Meanwhile, the stochastic continues to travel towards oversold territory, but it may need some volume on weakening price to achieve it. ADX and related also continue to weaken.

On my experimental charts, average trade size is solidly in the upper-mid range of what I think is retail, but don't forget the discussion above about the larger trade today. Buy:sell still stinks and isn't suggesting any upside ATM. My original experimental inflection point calculations are still weakening further and my new ones are in agreement.

Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are int the latest daily post above.

03/07/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 49, MinTrSz: 150, MaxTrSz: 24725, Vol 183160, AvTrSz: 3738
Min. Pr: 0.3010, Max Pr: 0.3250, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.3126
# Buys, Shares: 19 50605, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3143
# Sells, Shares: 30 132555, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3119
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:2.62 (27.6% "buys"), DlyShts 29125 (15.90%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 21.97%

My summary is likely more weakness with a possible reversal of trend in store in a few days. Nothing indicating a reversal is more likely than continued weakness for now.

It's too early to say if much will come of it, but the daily short sales moved above all the descending averages, as well as its calculated long-term trend line. It's not a large move and not out of the range of normal choppy behavior we've been seeing.

As mentioned in a comment in the APC, the ATDF market-maker was off the field today. The result was that for a large part of the day it looked like price might hold up well - we had initially much less "jumping to the front of the line" on the ask to push price down. From the opening salvo of 49.5K shares with a VWAP of $0.3114 we saw a slow low-volume crawl to as high as $0.3250 at 14:00. From there it began to weaken, again with low-volume and infrequent trades, with zero trades between 14:44 and 15:23. At that point, I guess NITE decided to stand in for ATDF and began pushing the ask downward. Trades moved from $0.32 down to as low as $0.3010, and closed at $0.3050, on volume of 88.43K with a VWAP of $0.3098. Here's a breakdown of some of the action.

$0.3010-$0.3050 019930 shares, 10.88% of volume, VWAP $0.3021
$0.3100-$0.3140 103700 shares, 56.62% of volume, VWAP $0.3112
$0.3150-$0.3181 041200 shares, 22.49% of volume, VWAP $0.3166
$0.3200-$0.3250 018330 shares, 10.01% of volume, VWAP $0.3226

On the traditional TA front, all the oscillators I watch weakened some more, with all but the MFI (~61.9) and momentum (~1.05) below neutral and the stochastic %K (~46.58) looking like it wants to go oversold shortly. Price is pretty much in the middle, $0.3067, of my experimental 13-period Bollinger bands - $0.3355 and $0.2779. Since we've moved the price range lower, the 50-day SMA, $0.3201, will start slowing its ascent. If we move lower a penny or so, it will go flat but the spread between it and the 200-day SMA, $0.3113, will still continue to widen as the 200-day continues to drop.

With volume slightly higher, but not dramatically so, further weakness in price should be expected. But there's a couple of things that suggest a positive move might appear.

First, our price is at a known prior support point and it would not be an aberration to see support, seen at that level today, result in a bounce up. With the relatively small percentage of trades in the lower-$0.30xx area today, the sellers at this level might be exhausted. The percentages above suggest that most got out above the low $0.30 level. Further, there may be many who, as I did, see a $0.30xx range as a very reasonable risk/reward point, especially if they believe some news is likely over the next couple of months. We'll just have to see how this near-term plays out.

Recall that I was looking for a new potential trend and added a rising line from the low of $0.2018 on 11/12/12 which touches the lows in the 2/22-2/27/13 period. The extension of this line is barely below the low today of $0.301. Since we came off a high of $0.35, a known resistance point, on 3/5, there's a possibility we might reverse trend (it's only a three-day trend though), either Friday or in the next couple days. We've retraced ~80% of the rise from $0.288 to $0.35. If this is just an overshoot of the Fibonacci 61.8% price point and that potential new rising support is in play, we could see a move back towards $0.33, another known resistance. There's nothing suggesting it's likely yet, but it is a possibility here. If it does come, I really wouldn't be looking for it on a Friday, which is often a low-volume day. Given all this, I don't expect any price strength with volume today. Might have one or the other though.

My experimental charts stuff is not yet showing suggestions of strength either. Average trade size remains in the lower area of what I think is retail, although it is slowly improving. The buy:sell ratio is still quite weak, volume is still low with all the averages dropping and my original inflection point calculations are showing increased weakness, although they aren't well-formed. My newer version is well-formed and, in retrospect, can be considered to have thrown a signal on 3/5. But since I've not exhaustively examined it over the year yet, I didn't believe in it enough to holler, other than to say it was also suggesting weakness.

Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.

03/06/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 36, MinTrSz: 250, MaxTrSz: 13650, Vol 143208, AvTrSz: 3978
Min. Pr: 0.3200, Max Pr: 0.3369, VW Avg. Tr. Pr:0.3235
# Buys, Shares: 13 31408, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3288
# Sells, Shares: 20 91800, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3213
# Unkn, Shares: 3 20000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.3250
Buy:Sell 1:2.92 (21.9% "buys"), DlyShts 10604 (07.40%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 11.55%

My summary is nothing suggests a stop in the down move yet.

The price weakness that began to manifest yesterday continued today. The bid/ask movements followed suit: by 10:12 bid dropped to $0.3201 from the $0.3315 present at the open and the $0.325 seen by 9:46. The ask had dropped to $0.3295 by 10:40 from it's initial $0.3369 at the open. Although slow, the trend continued throughout the day, leading to bid/ask of $0.3101/$0.32 at 15:51, just before close.

Although volume dropped again, it's not low enough to lead me to believe we might be nearing the end of a bottoming process. There's only two things that might support such a thought and I wouldn't want to hang your hat on it.

The first is that the low stopped just above the 50-day SMA, $0.3197 and rising. I see only one case where it seemed to offer support prior to our rising trading channel begun in November. And that was for only a short period at the end of the failed cup and handle back in May of '12.

In the process of searching for the trend forward, longer term, there's a potential rising support constructed from the low of 11/12/12, after which we entered our rising channel, and touching the lows of 2/22-2/27. But I would call this tentative, at best, as there's only the origin and "one" touch (I treat occurrences of touches clumped together as "one"). This is currently ~$0.2975 and rises about 1/8th of a cent each day. A new rising channel is not entirely out of the question as subsequent to leaving one trading channel and going sideways a bit it's common to establish another channel, which can be up as likely as down, viewed in isolation.

Since it's impossible for me to isolate well, I do have to mention that all the oscillators have now had time to "sync up" and all are weakening. Some are just below the overbought range (MFI & stochastic) and some are just above neutral (RSI, momentum, Williams %R). Countering those negative indicators is that the "Golden Cross" (supposedly deserves capitalization in per the trading community) continues to develop a wider divergence between the 50 and 200-day SMA as the 200-day is now down to $0.3115. It's also possible that the combination of the 200-day SMA and the potential new rising support mentioned in the last paragraph might "join forces" to support price. I'm not thinking that's a strong likelihood though. Last, the PSAT has flipped to "bullish", purely as a function of the PR pop though. Since I don't trust it anyway, I'm not going to trust it now.

Since we had a pop on the PR that gave us a 8%+ gain in one day, there's a possibility we a doing a "reversion to the mini-mean" (YUK! I slay myself). The low of 3/4, $0.3002, and the high 3/5, $0.35, gives a "mini-mean" of ~$0.325. Was today just an "overshoot"? I think not, but we can always hope, which costs nada - for sure if we don't invest based on it.

I left my usual haunts today and took a look at a two-year chart. A simple descending wedge construction makes an ugly picture. I tried for a descending trading channel, but the support was just to raggedy to accept that it really helped define a channel. So I stuck with the wedge where the descending resistance originates at the high of 1/26/12 (we could use 5/25/11, but it doesn't really add much information to the results), and touches at the highs of 1/15/13 and - you guessed it - yesterday, 3/5. The descending support originates at the low of 12/29/11 and has a touch at the low of 11/12/12. But the "ugly" news is not what one would expect ...

It breaks upward 68% of the time. It doesn't perform that well afterwards, according to Bulkowski, but it's a positive possibility nevertheless. And we are approaching the typical breakout area - 57%-59% along the lateral path. Not quite there yet and I am suspicious because of the near-term action. But we have been staying much closer to the resistance than the support since leaving the near-term rising channel started in November. AFAICT the resistance is currently ~0.3480.

Enough of that. My experimental stuff shows average trade size remaining low, buy:sell still halting moving up towards a more normal reading, and volume slowly improving. Daily short sales remain low and the original experimental inflection point calculations continue to weaken. However, my current newer version shows less of this tendency. It considers things in a way that tries to eliminate some of the "flakiness" and also looks at some additional factors. The newer version does show some weakening, but not to the degree my original does. I guess we need to let it develop and just see what happens since I don't know yet if this is more or less useful than the original.

Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points omitted from the concentrator.

03/05/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 53, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 19000, Vol 225324, AvTrSz: 4251
Min. Pr: 0.3300, Max Pr: 0.3500, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.3388
# Buys, Shares: 19 61211, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3393
# Sells, Shares: 34 164113, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3385
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:2.68 (27.2% "buys"), DlyShts 30291 (13.44%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 18.46%

The day started decent, suggesting that we might have some strength as the price opened above the rising support line from the channel started in November (from yesterday, " AFAICT it's at ~$0.3420") and looked like it would hold well. Around 10:00 ATDF and CDEL did a little jostling at the bid side and I had hopes that buying pressure might be appearing. But they never took the bid higher than $0.3421 and by 12:12 it was back to $0.34. Further, from 11:27 onward, almost everything was "sell".

Through 12:29 we traded ~119.2K shares, 52.9% of day's volume, at a VWAP of $0.3437 with 8 trades, ~63.8K shares, at or near the support line level (trades went at $0.3420-$0.3421). But when price went to $0.3400 at 12:29, after watching the "Usual Suspects" appear on the scene, acting in the "Usual Suspicious Manner", I knew the game was over for today. From there onward we traded ~106.1K, 47.1% of day's volume, at a VWAP of $0.3332. In furtherance of domestic harmony, I sold one of my wife's recently acquired small trading blocks bought at $0.30 for just over 10% gain, expenses included, during this period.

Maybe we shouldn't expect different behavior when we had an 8%+ pop yesterday. There must be some rules-based traders and some low-risk-tolerance folks that should take the opportunity to get some profit locked in. And I see TB offered another possibility, involving the potential future financiers of the next funding round, that might be part of the reason price has difficulty going anywhere recently.

Regardless, as I mentioned recently, resistance could appear at $0.35-$0.37 and we saw $0.35 hit followed by movement lower. We still closed almost absolutely flat with Monday, down only 5/100ths of a cent - not a shabby outcome at all, considering everything. So we really can't view this as a "sell off".

ISTR somebody mentioned "reversion to the mean"? That certainly is the case here: from the high of $0.38 1/11 to the low of $0.288 2/22, we derive a "mean" of $0.334. How spooky - we closed at $0.3345!

We have a "shooting star" candle configuration, which suggests a reversal 59% of the time - a tad bit better than random. The candlestick comes in two varieties - a single candle, just high-lighted, and a two-candle variety. Unfortunately, the two-candle version, which results in a bullish continuation bullish 61% of the time, requires a gap, which we don't have.

All is normal and behaving as expected - always a good thing IMO. When we combine the fact that volume was reduced (an important consideration IMO), compared to the stronger volume on the rise seen Monday, we shouldn't expect too much near-term downward pressure. I think a key is whether we stall here for an extended period or quickly start a move up or down.

The oscillators I watch were mostly little-affected. Most went to just a flat-line status - as we might expect with reducing volume when price doesn't make much of a move. This is the second day of pushing my experimental 13-period upper Bollinger, $0.3336. I'm unsure how to asses this since we are outside our rising trading channel, begun mid-November, ATM. Prior to that we had times price quickly retreated from the upper Bollinger and times it pushed on it 6-7 days or longer (notably during the formation of our failed cup and handle period that ended 5/2/12 - we have sort of a "mini-me" version that may be forming right now).

The 50-day SMA is $0.3189 and rising more strongly each day for 12 more days, IF there's no strong price pull-back. If there's momo traders watching, which we don't know of course, there's a possibility we could see some volume and price increase start to appear, but I'm not looking for it ATM. The 200-day SMA is $0.3118 and will continue to drop.

Regardless, with us being still in the window of when news might have an effect, I wouldn't lay a lot of weight on all this TA stuff yet.

On my experimental charts stuff, we still have below-normal average trade sizes (although it is slowly improving), buy:sell continues a choppy trend towards normal. Although we may focus a lot on the failure to "launch", we should keep in mind what's really going on. I posted the intra-day VWAP trends several days in a row now, so here's today's, shortened a little: $0.3003, $0.2973, $0.2967, $0.2932, $0.2973, $0.2992, $0.3015, $0.3059, $0.3062, $0.3238 and $0.3388.

Maybe things are not so dire, huh?

My original inflection point calculations are starting to lose some of the upward trend, as are the newer versions. Neither version has yet made a pattern strong enough to suggest coming action.

Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.

03/04/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 76, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 19179, Vol 304233, AvTrSz: 4003
Min. Pr: 0.3002, Max Pr: 0.3400, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.3238
# Buys, Shares: 62 261212, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3229
# Sells, Shares: 14 43021, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3290
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 6.07:1 (85.9% "buys"), DlyShts 43363 (14.25%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 100.79%

Well, with the PR about ePower and Axion having a "commenced a strategic relationship" with an initial five-year period in place, we got the results we'd expect ... if we didn't have a history of dropping on good news, as Metroneanderthal highlighted in the concentrator today. Anyway, finished up 8.1%, even after the "late-day weakness" came in (more on that later).

I want to touch on some traditional TA stuff that may come into play, especially if this pop is a one-day wonder (I don't really think so). First, my short-term descending resistance added last week got broken after only two days of holding. That is now in the past and we won't be re-visiting for some time, if ever.

Second, I had added a very "iffy" long-term descending resistance line over the weekend while trying to think what might happen if we got news. It wasn't one I would normally add, but I managed to get something I could try and live with.

Blew right through it. So, it was worse than "iffy". I've found a new home for it, which is quite attractive, but it's too early to really consider it yet. So I'll first revert to some that have a history already.

We came within a gnat's ass of bumping the former support, now potential resistance, of the rising trading channel from November. AFAICT it's at ~$0.3420 and rises about $0.01/week. So that's the first potential near-term resistance. If the news causes a multi-day pop, we shouldn't spend any time at all below it tomorrow. But we do have to keep in mind that $0.35 and $0.37 has acted as resistance and support multiple times in our recent past, so we have a couple more potential pauses or even reversals laying in wait for us at those points. However, they are now within the old rising trading channel. If price gets inside that, on volume, and confirms, on volume, those points may be just pauses at the worst, with $0.37 being the stronger of the two. I say that for reasons of both percentage rise, likely inducing some more profit taking by short-term oriented decisions, and the fact that my new long-term trend line, only slightly less iffy than before, sits at ~$0.3680 today and drops ~3/10ths of a cent every 2 weeks. Back to the November rising trading channel ...

The rising resistance (and still resistance, rising ~$0.01/week) of the old trading channel is ~$0.405 AFAICT. I can't say that if we get inside the channel and confirm we should make "full swings", but they would not be unreasonable when you think of legs up and down in percentage terms over, say, 8 days (the length of our two up legs inside the channel - we did make "full swings"). Down legs took longer because each was extended with sideways moves - they ran 18 days, one resulted in another up leg and the last resulted in a break below support of the channel.

Moving to the oscillators, last Thursday, they were mixed and Friday all had started moving more positive. Today's combination of price and volume improvement resulted in all swing decidedly positive. RSI bullish at ~64.7, MFI ~70, momentum 1.15 and ADX and related improving to DI+ of 29 with DI- at 7 and falling. It'll take the ADX itself a while to get to 30 or better, where it would be a bullish sign.

Finishing up the traditional stuff, our normal "late-day weakness" was late today. It didn't come in until 15:37 today, at least a couple hours later than "normal". The prior twenty minutes or so we hit the day's high of $0.34. And the weakness wasn't high-volume either - 33.8K shares (11.11% of volume) at a VWAP of $0.3357 - not far from the high - another nice change. Before the "weakness" appeared, buy:sell was 18.63:1.

I logged most of the moves in bid ask and will summarize them as being refreshing in that the sellers eventually recognized the buying pressure and finally began raising the asks just before lunch time, with the bids reluctantly following them up. During the early part of the day this was not the case, demonstrated buy the buy:sell mentioned above. Through 13:00 it was 26.54:1. Trades were mostly going at the ask with no changes of note in the asks.

I'll skip most of the experimental stuff today, on the premise that when we get a news-induced pop it's not going to add much to what we've already observed. As we might expect, the original inflection point calculations are less unorganized and began forming up to generate a signal and the new version, which had begun forming such earlier, continued to do so more strongly. As before, looking at the numbers rather than the squiggles showed much more clearly the improvement. The small average size remains a concern. I don't know if this is just because most buyers were retail or if because market-makers kept them small trying to milk as much profit as possible out of the strong buying sentiment.

Let's hope today's buyers were of the "strong hand" variety and not predominately the type to release scads of shares at low profit levels or the first sign of price retrace.

Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.

03/01/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 21, MinTrSz: 200, MaxTrSz: 21600, Vol 97540, AvTrSz: 4645
Min. Pr: 0.3000, Max Pr: 0.3100, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.3062
# Buys, Shares: 7 25640, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3097
# Sells, Shares: 14 71900, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3050
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:2.80 (26.3% "buys"), DlyShts 200 (00.21%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 0.28%

Well, today ended up sort of like I wondered about yesterday - low volume. And the range was also kept narrow by NITE starting the day bracketing both sides of the market with a "standard" 2.5K size with bid/ask of $0.3001/$0.31. At the open 2.7K shares traded at $0.31 and NITE presented an ask of $0.315. Bid moved to $0.3055 - I forgot who did it. Then ATDF did their usual "me first" and placed a 10K offer at $0.3099 at 9:50. Pretty much normal stuff thereafter with (mostly) ATDF trying to be both first in line and cheap at the same time.

Although the low volume makes any traditional TA stuff somewhat "iffy", I want to touch on a couple of things that I think are significant. We might have a "sneaky" climb back up going on, or ...

Caution is warranted because a large, well-capitalized market-maker, like Knight Capital Management, has been controlling the bid/ask and may be "working" the price up to meet their own ends. I'll forgo the TFH stuff beyond that suspicion. I'll just remind that for several days now they have been establishing the early range with early narrow-spread entries on both the bid and the ask. Daily short sales have been extremely low. Of course, this has been quite common ever since we started seeing a single market-maker predominately occupying both sides of the market, including ATDF, TEJS, NITE, and occasionally UBSS. I think this suggests a lot of intra-broker trades or the MMs are short-term long.

First, the potential descending support I began mentioning a couple days ago is holding - we topped and closed right on it AFAICT - $0.31 (actually, the close was $0.3099 but I can't nail the trend line price that precisely anyway). But it has been under attack for three consecutive days now and price range has not materially retreated. In fact, the lows have risen three consecutive days now. With the highs pretty much "flat" eight of the last ten days, this makes a rising triangle pattern. This breaks upward 70% of the time. However, this is a very short-term pattern so far and I don't know if it's behavior will follow the normal behavior. But with the two up days in the last three days both having higher volume than the down day, it seems there's a reasonable chance it will behave "normally".

Although the trend has been "choppy", the oscillators I follow are trending up. Several have achieved at or near "neutral" readings, including RSI @ 51.52, momentum @ 1.033, and the stochastic %K up at 64.44 and moving towards a bullish indication at ~80, above which it suggests overbought, but often holds there for a while as price appreciation occurs.

If we can just get some volume to come back while this is going on, I think we have some room to the upside.

I want to mention again that we've a "golden cross" that will continue to show a widening between the 50-day SMA, currently $0.3166, and the 200-day SMA at $0.3125. If price doesn't retreat, we have at least 13 more days of a rising 50-day SMA. If there's any traders out there that respond to such stuff, the widening gap should catch their eye.

Last, I've not recently looked at the MACD that DRich brought up some time back. Its histogram has been steadily improving since about the 19th and it's dead-nuts at neutral now, with the signal line about to cross above its average. The histogram low for this cycle did not go below the low of the prior cycle down, so I think the long-term up trend he identified is still in play.

On my experimental stuff, average trade size is still around the low mid-point of what I believe is "retail", but is haltingly trending towards more normal readings. Buy:sell remains stuck in low ranges, suggesting that someone is taking advantage of the price creeping up to both release a few shares and keep the price working up - it's not irrational buyer demand that's pushing price here.

In spite of the above, if we ignore my TFH stuff, we have some positive things happening. The one I like the best is that intra-day VWAP continues to recover from its downward movement: $0.3214, $0.3054, $0.3080, $0.3003, $0.2973, $0.2967, $0.2932, $0.2973, $0.2992, $0.3015, $0.3059 and $0.3062. If any of the sellers wake up and smell the roses, they might be able to get some higher prices out of this trend. Another thing I like is maximum trade sizes suggest there are some careful buyers out there that are willing to soak up some shares at the current price levels: 20000, 22500, 22000, 9000, 15000, 10000, 5600, 12329, 24600 and 21600. I think some percentage of these folks are "strong hands".

The original version of my inflection point calculations continue to suggest nothing. One of my newer versions, the one I currently show in my instablog, is telling a story though. It says there is improving sentiment. The pattern is setting up quite similarly to what was seen shortly before the rising trading channel began in the middle of August and before the additional price bump that began around the end of the year. [EDIT" ACK! I think I confused events - exiting big uglies and rising trading channel. "rising trading channel began in the middle of August"
s.b "rising trading channel began in the middle of November"]. Of course, we were in the rising channel on that second item and ended a sideways trade when we "bumped" the rising support. We don't have that at the moment, but every trend has to start somewhere. It'll be interesting to see if the pattern matures and if price behaves accordingly.

Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points arein the latest daily post above.

Disclosure: I am long AXPW.OB.

Additional disclosure: I am very experimental, still learning TA and am not very conservative in my trading. But I am conservative regarding my confidence in what I'm learning and my attempts to share with others what I think I see coming. Your own DD is mandatory.