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Hale Shaw

 
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  • Banco Santander: Ignore The Pain In Spain [View article]
    Thank you for the support, but I suppose my comment was more related to how amazingly quick market perception can change. I would argue that 7 months time is not enough to fix the euro on a fundamental basis. The GDP growth has not changed for a significant portion of the continent. People are still paying relatively the same taxes, which support the various bonds.

    My comment revolves around how amazingly powerful perception can be, even when the fundamentals of a company and economy remain relatively unchanged.
    Jan 28 12:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Banco Santander: Ignore The Pain In Spain [View article]
    It is amazing what seven months will do.
    Jan 25 05:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Banco Santander - Strong Results Support Investment Thesis [View article]
    Great article Mike. Any way to figure out what type of maturities Santander holds for their sovereign portfolio?
    Aug 5 02:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Banco Santander: Ignore The Pain In Spain [View article]
    26% of Santander's assets are in Spain, 3% are in Portugal, 3% Germany, 1% Poland and 5% for "Other Europe".

    If you look at just gross customer loans, that figure raises to 28% for Spain.

    I was going to include the below information, but was worried I was overloading people with information:

    Santander's loan portfolio in Spain is relatively conservative when looking at the types of loans. Overall loans in spain have dropped 15 billion euro since December of 2010, and by the end of the first quarter there were only 22 billion euros worth of loans with real estate purposes which have the highest ratio of non performing loans. The rest were to companies without real estate purposes(105), Other loans to individuals (19) Household mortgages(57) and public sector loans(13)
    May 31 02:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Banco Santander: Ignore The Pain In Spain [View article]
    Not always DeepValue. If the break up value is always the same as market cap Ichan would not be going around raiding companies. But I assume you mean for the little Santanders that are trading on the market? Often times you can sell a majority steak at above market prices to a particular investor.
    May 31 02:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Banco Santander: Ignore The Pain In Spain [View article]
    I like that solution, though I doubt that the ESM would be given a green light to go forward with such a plan with out a laid out framework as to how they would act was a large shareholder. At least the Treasury in the US had to answer to only Obama/Bush. Any ESM governing body would be answering to all eurozone members, and perhaps the whole community. That would make it harder for the ESM to maintain a clear mandate with which they could sell their involvement to each political constituents across Europe.

    Any short term, 'delay and pray' solution would have to much simpler, and honestly would have to be a bit sneakier. LTRO was fantastic in that it was a partial QE with out the direct bond purchases that would have ignited the Germans. Something similar needs to happen in the political realm with Spain. I would like to see a eurozone wide deposit guarantee program set up in the long run. That would seem more equitable, and as Zheeeem mentioned, it would likely reduce the boogyman factor.
    I also would love to see some sort of wide scale jointly issued infrastructure bond issued. Europe could do with another transconential railroad, or highway system. Maybe another natural gass pipeline?

    As for the imediate future, I imagine that somehow the ECB will find a way to accept Bankia's Spanish bonds as appropriate colleteral, or something along those lines and other similar solutions will pop up for more insolvent banks.
    May 31 03:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Banco Santander: Ignore The Pain In Spain [View article]
    That very well could happen. I don't contend to be able to predict what side of the bed Mario Draghi will wake up on tomorrow, or what rumor will float out of Spain regarding Bankia. What I do see though is a global financial services company that is well diversified both in terms of geographical distribution of assets and profits trading at a huge discount to its intrinsic value. People will continue to freak out and I can't call the bottom.
    May 31 03:01 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Am Still Long Ford [View article]
    Agreed to some extent, and that is why I own significantly less GM compared to F. But, one would imagine Uncle Sam's stake in GM and possibility of a fire sale is priced in to some extent, and in the long run the US selling their stake wont alter the fundamentals of the stock, but that is for another article.
    Jan 31 12:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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