Hans Wagner

Hans Wagner
Contributor since: 2006
Company: Trading Online Markets LLC
I actually spoke with several contractors who indicated that remodeling was picking up. The are finding work with investors who buy foreclosed homes and then refurbish them. Others have found work from homeowners who have decided to remain in their homes rather than sell. Unfortunately this is not a scientific survey, so it does not provide solid evidence of a trend.
While I do not like how the banks are operating, they are facing legitimate conflicts. On the one hand they are supposed to reduce their leverage and maintain stricter credit ratios. Basically, this forces them to reduce their assets relative to the available capital, including making fewer loans. They are also supposed to follow stricter lending guidelines. On the other hand the banks are supposed to lend more even as the level of bad loans continues to climb. these conflicts make getting a loan more difficult for any company.
Richard,
Thank you for clarifying.
Hans
I prefer operating earnings as they are harder to manipulate as we have seen in the past. I will be more careful in stating that more clearily in the future. I did indicate in the charts that the numbers were reported earnings.
Thank you for your comment.
you are welcome
Thanks for the comment. Yet investors try to figure out where the market will be and make big bets on their assumptions.
I agree the market looks at the wrong numbers. Part of my point was the operating earnings can be missleading and that reported earnings are a better measure of real performance. eventually the misleading view catches up with those that use rose colored glasses.
Thanks for the reply
Great point. Now I have to go and get on my bike and ride a few miles.
Thank you for your comment. Prospects for inflation are there. Holding down andy rise in prices will be the long term jobless "recovery" we are just beginning. Hard to have much inflation when unemployment remains so high.
Your are welcome
great strategy to pursue.
The point of the article was to make a fundamental case for a bear market rally. Regarding the 27.5 PE ratio, I suggest reading my latest article on the PE ratio for the S&P 500. The trailing PE ratio is 122 and the forward PE is 25.28 with a forecast for the next year's earnings of $41.49. The earnings forecast is from Standard & Poor's.
There are several technical indicators that say we are near a high with a pull back likely. Then others tell us the rally will continue. My view from a techncial standpoint is we are still in a nice rally that shows signs of aging but has not turned down. The only problem I see longer term is the fundamentals do not support a strong recovery in the eocnomy, so I do nto expect the market to move up much more. Sideways trading is more likely
Jake2,
Thank you for your comment. I agree, I am not interested in a penny stock like MRNA.
Beautyseer, great catch on engine washing. An interesting idea and another plus for United Technology as well as P&W.
The engine manufacturers will benefit with newer engines. However, the retrofit idea is more difficult for a variety of techncial reasons. The real benefit is making the planes lighter, which then requires less power fly, which lowers fuel consumption.
The U.S. Air Force is funding research into using bio fuels as a way to heop lower the cost of fuel. This is a few years a way at the least.
I suspect women who are encountering a tighter budget will still buy Coach bags. They just will be the lower priced ones, which is why their margins are shrinking.
International sales should do well, especially in Japan as the dollar shrinks. Brazil and Asia should also contribute over time.
aflitzy,
I would look to buy FTO on dips to the 34 and 36 support levels. I also sell the refiners in late Spring or early Summer as that tends to be when thdir share prices peak.
Thank you to everyone for the comments. They are appreciated.
The fire at Alon's Big Spring refinery presents an opportunity to acuqire shares of ALJ at a lower price. I would be looking to buy ALJ on dips to 16.