Seeking Alpha

Harlan Kessler

 
View as an RSS Feed
View Harlan Kessler's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • McDonald's 2nd Quarter Results Create Excellent Buying Opportunity [View article]
    Lumberfrog - Healthy food trends are undeniable in the US but MCD bulls likely didnt buy for growth in the US. Plus the US only accounts for ~30% of MCD's revenue at this point and is only going to continually get smaller. Growth in Europe and emerging markets is what will drive MCD's higher going forward. If US revenue stays fairly consistent going forward I would consider that a win.
    Jul 22 11:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Franklin Financial: Is This Conversion Story Still A Buy? [View article]
    TowneBank agrees to but FRNK: http://seekingalpha.co...

    This price seems low at ~1.13 times TBV. Based on the markets reaction investors arent too happy. How do you see this playing out? I am long FRNK and not happy about this price.

    Thanks!
    Jul 15 11:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rangeley Capital Best Investment Idea Outcomes [View instapost]
    I have a question on the net sales payments for CELGZ:

    "Net Sales Payment: Payment to CVR holders based on Abraxane’s net sales for the year (this extends by default through December 31, 2025, renewable each year until 2030 "

    So you get a payout for every year sales are greater than $1bn? Essentially you could get a decent payout, starting likely in 2015, for every year that net annual sales are greater than $1bn for Abraxane?
    Jun 30 11:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Play On The National Bank Of Greece Worth Over 40% [View article]
    Hi Gargamel - Thanks for reading and the kind words glad you enjoyed the article.

    You bring up good, valid points. Essentially it is free funding. They are paying no dividends and the divy's are not accumulating. A reason they may want to retire the preferred is to increase their capital ratios by reducing the debt outstanding. So again we have two sides to this point. Is the ~$350mm outstanding on the preferred too little to make a large difference or is it small enough that the company could wipe out the so-called low hanging fruit.

    I think the company's main concern right now is the preferred outstanding with the Greek government. That said, I think we have two possibilities on the US based preferred. Either they try to take it out again at a discount say between $21-$23 this year or they wait and redeem it at a future date for the full redeemable value. If they try to redeem in June 2015 for full redeemable your return would be over 30% in ~13 months or 15% a year if they redeem in 2016 from current value. Based on the current uncertainty in the markets and NBG specifically, I'll take a 15% return for the next two years or 30% over 13 months, but maybe someone can do better elsewhere.

    What are your thoughts?
    May 20 02:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Simple - Almost Risk Free - Long Term Play - Arbitrage Opportunity On MECHEL  [View instapost]
    Great. Thanks for your clarification
    May 5 08:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Simple - Almost Risk Free - Long Term Play - Arbitrage Opportunity On MECHEL  [View instapost]
    I pulled the quote from google finance. Mcx:mtlrp - $54.44
    May 3 05:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Simple - Almost Risk Free - Long Term Play - Arbitrage Opportunity On MECHEL  [View instapost]
    What are your thoughts on the Mechel preferred shares? MTLRP trades on the Micex at 54.44 rubles = $1.52. MTL-P, the shares traded on the NYSE, = 1/2 a preferred share so they should be valued at $0.76 however they trade at $0.315. Seems to be the exact opposite as you discuss above, the US shares are trading below fair value. Any thoughts?
    May 2 09:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Play On The National Bank Of Greece Worth Over 40% [View article]
    Hi ErnestJack - The preferred shares are nonconvertible.

    Regards
    Apr 25 10:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Play On The National Bank Of Greece Worth Over 40% [View article]
    Hi Loerke - You do not need to invest in both options. You can buy the common, preferred or both. They have different features.

    I'm not sure exactly what you mean by Greek system. If you mean Greek economy there is also a Greece ETF, GREK.

    Regards
    Apr 25 10:34 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why McDonald's Is Heading To $105 [View article]
    Rose Colored Glasses - I have not now that you mention it. Is it possible they are the same person?

    All kidding aside, I am sure Don Thompson flips burgers for fun, photo ops, TV, etc... It is likely Don Johnson does to supplement his pension from Nash Bridges.
    Apr 22 10:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why McDonald's Is Heading To $105 [View article]
    Acejd - The CEO's name is Don Thompson.....Don Johnson is the actor from Miami Vice
    Apr 22 08:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Play On The National Bank Of Greece Worth Over 40% [View article]
    Based on the tender offer last year 12,360,169 ADSs were tendered or 49.4% of the outstanding ADSs leaving 12,639,831 outstanding.

    Here is a link to the press release for the results of the tender offer.
    http://bit.ly/1qRoyI4
    Apr 17 08:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Play On The National Bank Of Greece Worth Over 40% [View article]
    User - Thank you for the clarification on both points. Both are additional items that need to be considered.
    Apr 17 08:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Play On The National Bank Of Greece Worth Over 40% [View article]
    stocknerd - I have bought and sold NBG twice in the last 5 years. Both times for losses. I will very likely own it again sometime in the near future. I will the preferred stock now though.
    Apr 17 08:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seeking Alpha's Positioning For 2014 Update [View instapost]
    Thanks Chris.

    In your opinion which comes first LORL or OSHC? Certainly seemed like LORL, but the trial will likely slow down the sale. Is there an estimate of how long the trial will go or how long these type of trials usually last?
    Apr 8 01:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
56 Comments
30 Likes