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Harlan Levy

 
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  • RBS Chief Economist Michelle Girard: 2015: GDP Up 3%, Consumer Spending Up Near 3%
    Tue, Sep. 23 Comment!

    Summary

    • Key factor for U.S. economy: improving consumer outlook: wages, salaries up over 3%, spending to rise near 3%.
    • 2015 GDP up 3%, jobless rate toward 5.5%.
    • H2 '14: Business spending may grow by double digits.
  • Moody's Andres Carbacho-Burgos: Rates Up In H2 2015, 2016; Fed Funds Over 1%, Strong GDP Growth Until H2 2017
    Mon, Sep. 15 Comment!

    Summary

    • Short-term rates up in H2 ’15, Fed funds over 1% in ’16, near 4% by ’18, strong GDP growth up to H2 ’17.
    • Job growth exceeds 300,000/month by end of ’15, then slows; stocks slow in ’15.
    • In the next three or four years, housing market shifts to cautious younger and first-time home buyers, so no housing bubble.
  • Mesirow Financial Economist Adolfo Laurenti: No Healthy Wage, Salary Gains Until Q2 '15 At Best
    Mon, Sep. 8 SPY, DIA, QQQ 1 Comment

    Summary

    • 1. No healthy wage and salary gains until Q2 ’15 at best.
    • 2. GDP growth near 3% through December, rate hike in Q3 ’15.
    • 3. Top worries: Europe and sovereign debt, financial markets lacking risk pricing.
  • ConvergEx Chief Market Strategist Nick Colas: Stocks, Earnings Up 8%/Year In '15, '16 If Low Volatility
    Tue, Sep. 2 DIA, SPY, QQQ 1 Comment

    Summary

    • GDP up 2.5% in Q3, 4, long slog recovery in '15.
    • If low volatility continues stocks, earnings up 8% in '15, '16.
    • 25-basis point rate hikes start in Q1 or Q2 '15.
    • New jobs: 250,000-300,000/month rest of '14, but not good jobs.
  • U.S. Equity Strategist Sam Stovall: GDP Up 2.1% In '14; 3% In '15
    Mon, Aug. 25 Comment!

    Summary

    • 2014: GDP up 2.1%. 2015: up 3% with good, not great global recovery.
    • Unemployment: Structural problems, U6 nearly 2x 6% jobless rate.
    • Interest rates up mid-2015, inflation up 1.9% in ’14, less than 2% in ’15.
  • Economist Nick Perna: Fed Funds Rate Up 1% Mid-2015, 10-Year: 3% End Of '14, 4% End Of '15.
    Tue, Aug. 19 Comment!

    Summary

    • Further stock gains tough since interest rates will rise.
    • 2014 GDP growth may be 2.7%, Fed funds rate up 1% by mid-2015, 10-year: 3% end of 2014; 4% end of 2015.
    • Europe faltering with no stimulus plans is bad for U.S. exports.
  • Cirrus Research Founder Satya Pradhuman: Capital Markets Easing, Lending Market Benign
    Wed, Aug. 13 SPY, DIA, QQQ Comment!

    Summary

    • Stocks, especially small-caps, already had a sizable correction.
    • Strong credit access, lots more IPOs, accelerating high-yield issuance.
    • Large-cap and small-cap revenue growth rates stabilizing or accelerating.
    • Capital markets easing, lending market benign, riskier firms getting capital.
  • California Controller's CEA Chief Economist, Lynn Reaser: Stocks To Correct 10% In 3 Months, Q3 GDP Up 3%
    Mon, Aug. 4 2 Comments

    Summary

    • 10% stock market correction likely in next 3 months, but it won't be worrisome.
    • Q3 GDP up 3%, 2015 slightly under 3%, interest rates up mid-'15.
    • Strong U.S. sectors: autos, energy exploration and development, and tech. Weak: consumer non-discretionary, retail, agriculture.
  • Wells Fargo Advisors Chief Equity Strategist Stuart Freeman: Q2 Earnings To Rise 8%
    Tue, Jul. 29 DIA, SPY, QQQ 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Q2 Earnings will be up 8% or so, with 3-to-1 up-to-down and broad growth.
    • Stock volatility softening, market responding to Ukraine, Gaza like a bull market, because of strong fundamentals and dovish Fed.
    • Without wage inflation, Fed may raise rates in 2015 H2 and keep adding liquidity for a while.
    • Corporate capital spending finally picking up.
  • Calvert Chief Investment Officer Natalie Trunow: Risk Premium Up, Increased Volatility Next 6-9 Months
    Mon, Jul. 21 SPY, DIA, QQQ 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Stocks: added risk premium, increased volatility in next 6 – 9 months.
    • Small cap stocks should outperform large caps.
    • Bad retail news at end if better housing news, which will come as foreclosures continue to shrink.
  • IHS Chief Economist Nariman Behravesh: Q2 Earnings Up Annualized 5-10%, Fed May Raise Rates In Q1 '15
    Tue, Jul. 15 SPY, DIA, QQQ 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Chances have risen that the Fed will raise rates as early as Q1 ’15, and if the Fed prepares the market and the economy is robust, the impact won’t be big.
    • Stocks will go up a bit by year-end, Q2 earnings up 5-10% annualized, P/E ratios not terribly high, bubble talk exaggerated.
    • Job situation good, 200,000 new jobs/month at least, GDP ’14 up 1.7%, Q2 through Q4 up 3%, ’15 up 3%.
  • Sterne Agee Chief Economist Lindsey Piegza: June Jobs Show Labor Market Structurally Weak
    Mon, Jul. 7 1 Comment

    Summary

    • GDP Q2 up 1.7 - 2%, '14 up 1.5%.
    • June's jobs show labor market's structural weakness.
    • Fed asset-buying to end in 2014, interest rates up Q4 '16 at the earliest.
  • Bank Of America Merrill Lynch Managing Director Ethan Harris: Q2 GDP Up 3%, 3.2% In '15
    Mon, Jun. 30 SPY, DIA, QQQ 1 Comment

    Summary

    • GDP up 3% in Q2, 3.2% in 2015 with more corporate spending.
    • Stock values close to normal, S&P 500 up 10% in 12 months.
    • Housing enters mature recovery phase. Prices gradually slow to normal 3 – 5% rise.
  • Economist Fred Carstensen: GDP Up 2.5 - 3% Unlikely With Sequestration, Congress Inaction
    Mon, Jun. 23 10 Comments

    Summary

    • GDP up 2.5 – 3% by 2016 is questionable with sequestration, Highway Trust Fund lapse, Congress’s inaction, global uncertainty.
    • Stocks overvalued until there is a real business investment with 2 – 3% inflation.
    • Household, student debt undermines housing; missing 3 million home purchases.
  • RBS Chief Economist Michelle Girard: Economy Moves Sideways, Financial Markets Too Exuberant
    Tue, Jun. 17 1 Comment

    Summary

    • 2014 GDP growth: 2 percent, but U.S. economy mostly moving sideways, while financial markets too exuberant.
    • The average year-to-date 214,000 monthly job gains below the 250,000 needed for more than 3% GDP growth.
    • Too much exuberance in financial markets mistaking how long the Federal Reserve will take to raise rates.
  • Equity Strategist Scott Wren On 2014: Stagnant Wages, Consumer Spending, GDP Up 2.4%
    Mon, Jun. 9 SPY, DIA 1 Comment

    Summary

    • 2014: Stagnant wages, stagnant consumer spending, minimal inflation, GDP up 2.4%, 2.7% too optimistic.
    • 180,000 – 220,000 new jobs/month, but major labor problem: low labor participation rate, long-term-unemployed.
    • Stocks may run up in June and July, but 80 percent of why the bond market is where it is now is because growth will be modest.
  • Sam Stovall: GDP Q2: +3.7%, Q3: +3.1%, Q4: +3%, But All Projections Are Optimistic; Rates Up Mid-2015
    Mon, Jun. 2 SPY, DIA, QQQ 1 Comment

    Summary

    • S&P Capital IQ economist projects GDP Q2: +3.7%, Q3: +3.1%, Q4: +3%, but Stovall thinks they’re all optimistic.
    • The Federal Reserve will raise interest rates mid-2015 at the earliest and won’t taper the taper.
    • April’s headline Consumer Price Index rose 2 percent year-over-year, which is not surprising and is going in the right direction.
  • Nick Perna: 2014 GDP Up 3%, Short-Term Rates Up Mid-2015, Long-Term 4-4.5% By End 2016
    Tue, May. 27 SPY, DIA, QQQ 1 Comment

    Summary

    • 2014 GDP growth may exceed 3%, over 200,000 new jobs a month for the next two years.
    • Inflation averages 2%, so no threat, and Congress’s inflation hawks unwisely maintain austerity, hampering recovery.
    • The Federal Reserve won’t raise short-term rates until mid-2015, long-term rates 4 to 4.5% by year-end 2016.
  • Moody's Analytics' Senior Economist Andres Carbacho-Burgos: 2014 GDP Up 2.6%
    Mon, May. 19 SPY, DIA, FXE Comment!

    Summary

    • Carbacho-Burgos predicts 2014 GDP growth to be 2.6% and 3.9% in 2015, as recovery accelerates, although business investment is stagnant.
    • New industrial job growth 1.9% in 2014, with more than 200,000 new jobs/month; 2.5% in 2015 with 300,000 jobs/month.
    • 10-year bond rate holding steady at around 2.7%, but will breach 4.5% by year-end 2015.
  • Economist Edward Deak: Q2-Q4 GDP Growth 3% A Month, Up To 230,000 New Jobs A Month
    Tue, May. 13 SPY, DIA, QQQ 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Q2, 3, 4: 200,000 to 230,000 new jobs/month, GDP up 3%/month.
    • Quantitative easing to stop around October, if jobs and recovery continue.
    • Short-term interest rates to start gradually rising in June or July 2015, and the 10-year bond rate.
  • Wells Fargo Advisors Chief Equity Strategist Stuart Freeman: More New Jobs, Broader GDP Growth Ahead
    Mon, May. 5 SPY 7 Comments

    Summary

    • New jobs have breadth, more to come, with 2014 GDP growth at 2.4% in a breadth of segments.
    • Q1 earnings look good, with 2014 S&P 500 earnings to rise nearly 7%.
    • With capacity utilization tightening, business finally starting to spend now.
  • Interview With Mesirow Economist Adolfo Laurenti: Over 200,000 New April Jobs,Q1 GDP Growth Near 1%, 3% In H2
    Mon, Apr. 28 DIA, SPY, QQQ 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Over 200,000 new jobs in April, maybe 250,000.
    • Q1 GDP growth near 1%, 2nd half over 3%.
    • No Fed rate hike ‘til end of 2015. Bond bulls have upper hand temporarily.
  • California Controller's Council Of Economic Advisors Chief Economist Lynn Reaser: Stock Correction 10% At Most, Q1 Earnings Down 3%-4%
    Mon, Apr. 21 SPY, DIA, QQQ Comment!

    Summary

    • Stocks to correct no more than 10%,as the economy picks up and no higher interest rates for a while.
    • Q1 earnings could end up down 3 – 4% year-over-year as Q1 softness weighs in, but will be up 6% by year-end.2.Q1 earnings could end up down.
    • Q1 GDP growth of about 1% should rise to 3% the rest of 2014.
  • ConvergEx Chief Market Strategist Nick Colas: Bonds Indicate Slowdown, Possibly Recession In 2nd Half
    Mon, Apr. 14 SPY, DIA, QQQ Comment!

    Summary

    • 1.Bond yields not rising as everyone predicted, indicating U.S. economy weaker, with slowdown, possibly recession in second half.
    • 2. Stocks to keep correcting next two to there weeks.
    • 3. Housing a worry: If mortgage markets don't pick up, house prices will stagnate for next few years.
  • Calvert Investment Management's Natalie Trunow: Worries; Meager Income Growth, Housing Slowing
    Mon, Apr. 7 DIA, SPY, QQQ Comment!

    Summary

    • Top worries: lack of consumer income growth and a slowing housing recovery.
    • GDP growth to accelerate, possibly to 3.5%.
    • Stocks could have 10% correction: a buying opportunity.
  • UConn Economist Fred Carstensen: Stocks Overvalued, To Trend Down In 2014
    Mon, Mar. 31 SPY, QQQ, DIA 5 Comments

    Summary

    • Stocks are overvalued and will trend downward although not sharply over this year as the Federal Reserve cuts back on quantitative easing.
    • Economic growth will continue to be anemic, because by far most personal income growth goes to the wealthy, not the majority of households.
    • The modest housing recovery will continue, given a fairly stable economy.
  • IHS Chief Economist Nariman Behravesh: Stocks Up 5-6% In '14, Fed Rate Rise In Q2 '15
    Mon, Mar. 24 DIA, SPY, QQQ 1 Comment

    Summary

    • The Federal Reserve won't raise rates until the second quarter of 2015.
    • Stocks up by single digits in 2014 - 5-6 percent.
    • 150,000 - 200,000 new jobs per month in 2014.
  • RBS Chief Economist Michelle Girard: Industrial Production To Rise 3%, Home Prices 5-7%
    Mon, Mar. 17 Comment!

    Summary

    • Consumer confidence dip a blip, a lot to do with bad weather. Stronger retail sales in March and April.
    • It will be difficult for the U.S. economy to grow 3% or more. 2014 forecast: 2.5% GDP growth.
    • Industrial production to rise 3%, and home prices to rise 5 to 7%.
  • S&P's Sam Stovall: Good Chance Bull Market Gets To 6, Earnings Up 5-6%, GDP 3%
    Mon, Mar. 10 SPY, DIA, QQQ 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Good but not great chance the five-year-old bull market will celebrate a sixth birthday.
    • 2014 earnings will rise 5 to 6 percent, while GDP will increase 3 percent.
    • This year's jobless rate will end up at 6.4% in 2014 and 5.7% in 2015.
  • Wells Fargo Advisors' Scott Wren: 2014 GDP 2.4%, 6.2% Jobless, Earnings Up 6-7%
    Mon, Mar. 3 SPY, DIA, QQQ Comment!
  • Bank Of America Economist Ethan Harris: 2014 GDP Up 3%, S&P 500 To 2000, 2015 5.5% Jobless Rate
    Mon, Feb. 24 SPY, SH, SSO 4 Comments
  • ConvergEx Chief Market Strategist Nick Colas - 2014: 2.5% Growth, 5-7% Stock Gains
    Mon, Feb. 10 SPY, DIA, QQQ Comment!