Wells Fargo Equity Strategist Stuart Freeman: No Corp. Profit Recession, Up For '15, Mid-Cycle Bull Into '16
Today, 8:58 AM • 1 Comment
- Stocks up in '15: Q1 Flat From Q1 '14, S&P 500: 2,150 – 2,250, average $128.
- Growth in jobs, incomes, wages, spending in ’15.
- One quarter-point rate hike in summer, maybe two by late ’15, depending on international stimulus, strong dollar, low energy prices.
Moody's Analytics Economist Andres Carbacho-Burgos: More Job, Wage Growth In '15, Home Sales Up In H2
- Real GDP growth around 3.5% in 2015 and 2016, then slower.
- Stronger job and wage growth this year.
- Renewed growth in single-family home sales, construction by H2.
Schwab Chief Investment Strategist Liz Ann Sonders: Volatility Continues In '15 Across All Asset Classes
- 2015 GDP: up 3% overall, but weak Q1.
- All indicators expect wage growth.
- How often Fed raises rates is the important question.
Sterne Agee Chief Economist Lindsey Piegza: No Catalyst For Above-Trend GDP Growth.
- GDP up due to the Fed -- a modest, non-organic 2 – 2.5% in 2015.
- Huge drag: Business investment's downward trend.
- Stock market synthetically supported, no rate hike 'til 2016.
- Manufacturing inventory build-up bet could sour.
IHS Chief Economist Nariman Behravesh: GDP Up 3% Next 2 - 3 Years, Then Slows. Stocks: No Correction
- Q1 GDP weak, 3 - 4% in Q2 and Q3, 3% ’til ’17 or ’18, then slowing.
- Consumer spending to near 3 5 percent.
- Stock euphoria puzzling, but no correction coming,.
- Housing problems: Student loans, weak household formation.
ConvergEx Chief Market Strategist Nicholas Colas: Stocks Up 6-7% In '15, Next Crisis In 36 Months
- Stocks up 6 to 7% in ’15. Next financial crisis in 36 months 25-basis-point rate hike in June, then December.
- 2015: GDP up 2.5%, 2% in 2016.
- 25-basis-point rate hike in June, then December.
- 250,000 to 300,000 newbs/month for next 6 months.
Chief Economist Lynn Reaser: Q1 Real GDP Up 2.5%, 2015 Wages Up Near 2.5% And Stocks Up 3-4%.
Mon, Feb. 16 • 1 Comment
- Q1: Real GDP up 2.5%. Q2 - 4: near 3%.
- Inflation toward 2% by 2017, but Fed 2% inflation target now may be too high.
- 2015: First rate hike might be September, 230,000 - 240,000 jobs/month month.
- Brent oil price may be $65 or $68 by year-end.
Wells Fargo Equity Strategist Scott Wren: 2015 - S&P 500 Up 6-10%, No Sell-Off, Rates Up Summer
- 2015: S&P 500 total return up 6 to 10%. More volatility in 2015 than 2014, but no big sell-off.
- First interest rate hike in summer, then in quarter points not every FOMC meeting, with Fed Funds up to 75 basis points at year-end.
- Stability and better performance abroad in 2015, 1.3 percent growth.
BOA Merrill Lynch Managing Director Ethan Harris: 2015: Stocks Up Near 10%, September Rate Hike.
- Solid 3% GDP growth in 2015, jobless rate near 5%, first rate hike in September.
- Wage growth gets to 3.5% pace in nexxt few years. Stocks up about 10% in 2015.
- Strong home price increases end, rising about 5% in each of the next two years.
RBS Chief U.S. Economist Michelle Girard: Rate Hike In September Not June Due To Weak Wage Growth
- Rate hike in September, not June, due to weak wage growth.
- GDP 2015: 3% due to strong job growth, low jobless rate.
- Oil price plunge not a signal of a much harder overseas landing and slower growth here than expected.
S&P U.S. Equity Strategist Sam Stovall: 2015 Earnings Up 8-9%, Large Caps Favored
- 2015: U.S. economic growth up 3%, earnings up 8-9%, S&P 500: 2,250.
- Rates up mid-year causing stocks to fall less than 10%.
- Oil: $40 bottom, up to $60 by year-end.
Economist Nick Perna: 2015 - U.S. GDP Up Over 3%, Unless Russia, Greece Threaten Default
Mon, Jan. 5 • Comment!
- 2015: U.S. GDP up over 3%, rates up in June, 250,000+ new jobs/month.
- Oil prices to rise to at least $80/barrel in 2015.
- Housing 2015: Improvement in new home starts, home sales, maybe not prices.
Calvert Chief Investment Officer Natalie Trunow: 2015 GDP Up 3.5%, Stocks 5 - 10%
- 2015: GDP up 3.5% is doable unless extreme weather, which could knockl 1 to 1.5% off GDP.
- 2015: Stocks have room to rise in the 5 to 10% range, althoughthe high dollar hurts companies selling outside the U.S.
- 2015 surprise: The Fed may not raise rates next summer as expected and if and when they do they will not do it as quickly or as much.
Economist Lynn Reaser: 2015: U.S. Economy Gains Momentum, GDP, Stocks, Wages Up
- 2015: GDP UP 2.8%; S&P500 up 4%; small caps, tech, energy up.
- 2015: 1st rate hike in June, fed funds to 1% by year-end.
- 2015: Jobless rate 5.2 – 5.3%, hourly wages up 2.5%, retail prices up 2%.
Moody's Analytics Economist Andres Carbacho-Burgos: Real GDP Growth... Up To 3.5% In 2016
Dec. 17, 2014 • Comment!
- U.S. Real GDP growth: 2.2% in ’14, 3.3% in ’15, 3.5% in ’16.
- 5% jobless rate by end of ’16, labor participation rate around 63.4% by ’16.
- Single-family home construction will surge substantially in the next two years.
- Household incomes and purchasing power will start to pick up in the next two years, also helping housing markets.
Cirrus Research's Satya Pradhuman: Stocks '15: Constructive, No Dramatic Uptick, Cyclical Leaders
- First time in 5 years loan growth over 5% means businesses starting to take risk.
- Bullish: Credit market suggests stabilizing to improving corporate trend.
- Interest rates up mid-year unless dollar keeps strengthening.
- Stocks in ’15: A constructive market, but no dramatic uptick, and cyclical leaders.
UCONN Economist Fred Carstensen: Stocks Significantly Overvalued, Significant Correction Coming
- Investors on asset-buying binge, nervous about U.S. economy's future.
- Rational fear is driving a housing bubble.
- Negative global economic performance, U.S. failure to invest in infrastructure, R&D = slowing growth.
- Stocks significantly overvalued, significant decline coming.
IHS Chief Economist Nariman Behravesh: U.S. GDP Growth '15, '16 - High 2% Range; '17 - 3%
- U.S. GDP growth '15, '16 - high 2% range; '17 - 3%.
- Rates up June at earliest, 25 basis points every other meeting.
- Looking good: Transportation, airlines, consumer companies. Not good: companies with huge overseas exposure.
- Oil price drop = $80 billion tax cut for consumers.
RBS Chief Economist Michelle Girard: Consumer Spending Rising, Faster In 2015 Than Last 2-3 Years
Nov. 17, 2014 • Comment!
- Consumer spending to pick up not only at year-end but at a faster rate in ’15 than in the last two to three years.
- Labor market data looks very positive, interest rates probably up mid-2015 unless wages, inflation lag.
- U.S. economy: better positioned for growth now than before in the recovery, Real GDP may approach 3% in '15.
S&P Capital IQ Equity Strategist Sam Stovall: S&P 500 May Rise 8% In 3 Months, Then Down 5%
- S&P 500 may rise 8% next 3 months then drop 5% or more.
- GDP '15, consumer spending: up 3%.
- Fed to raise rates mid-'15, no bear market.
Webster Financial Economist Nick Perna: Real GDP Up Much Less Than 3% In '15 And '16
- Real GDP to rise considerably less than 3 percent in 2015 and 2016.
- Fed to raise rates June or July, fed funds rate up one point by mid-’16.
- Deflation, not inflation, is the real risk, especially with a Republican House and Senate which would cut more spending and bash the Fed.
Wells Fargo Advisors' Stuart Freeman: Despite Volatility, S&P 500 Year-End 2015 Target 2,150 - 2,250.
- Volatility won’t retard S&P 500, year-end ’15: 2,150 – 2,250, average $128. ’14: $120.
- Historically, stocks up near 9% 12 months after a very volatile 12 months like ’14.
- Interest rates up at end of ’15 or later. GDP ’14 up 2.1%, ’15 up 2.8%.
Lindsey Piezga: Weak U.S. Economy, Scant Wage Growth = No Rate Hike Until Late 2016, Maybe 2017
- With the weak U.S. economy and little wage growth, the Fed won’t raise rates until late 2016, 2017 if data keeps disappointing.
- Stock volatility will subside soon, but with the weak U.S. economy, expect a bear market at some point.
- GDP up 1.4% in Q4, up 1.6% for 2014, 2.1% in ’15.
RBS Chief Economist Michelle Girard: 2015: GDP Up 3%, Consumer Spending Up Near 3%
Sep. 23, 2014 • Comment!
- Key factor for U.S. economy: improving consumer outlook: wages, salaries up over 3%, spending to rise near 3%.
- 2015 GDP up 3%, jobless rate toward 5.5%.
- H2 '14: Business spending may grow by double digits.
Moody's Andres Carbacho-Burgos: Rates Up In H2 2015, 2016; Fed Funds Over 1%, Strong GDP Growth Until H2 2017
Sep. 15, 2014 • Comment!
- Short-term rates up in H2 ’15, Fed funds over 1% in ’16, near 4% by ’18, strong GDP growth up to H2 ’17.
- Job growth exceeds 300,000/month by end of ’15, then slows; stocks slow in ’15.
- In the next three or four years, housing market shifts to cautious younger and first-time home buyers, so no housing bubble.
Mesirow Financial Economist Adolfo Laurenti: No Healthy Wage, Salary Gains Until Q2 '15 At Best
- 1. No healthy wage and salary gains until Q2 ’15 at best.
- 2. GDP growth near 3% through December, rate hike in Q3 ’15.
- 3. Top worries: Europe and sovereign debt, financial markets lacking risk pricing.
ConvergEx Chief Market Strategist Nick Colas: Stocks, Earnings Up 8%/Year In '15, '16 If Low Volatility
- GDP up 2.5% in Q3, 4, long slog recovery in '15.
- If low volatility continues stocks, earnings up 8% in '15, '16.
- 25-basis point rate hikes start in Q1 or Q2 '15.
- New jobs: 250,000-300,000/month rest of '14, but not good jobs.
U.S. Equity Strategist Sam Stovall: GDP Up 2.1% In '14; 3% In '15
Aug. 25, 2014 • Comment!
- 2014: GDP up 2.1%. 2015: up 3% with good, not great global recovery.
- Unemployment: Structural problems, U6 nearly 2x 6% jobless rate.
- Interest rates up mid-2015, inflation up 1.9% in ’14, less than 2% in ’15.
Economist Nick Perna: Fed Funds Rate Up 1% Mid-2015, 10-Year: 3% End Of '14, 4% End Of '15.
Aug. 19, 2014 • Comment!
- Further stock gains tough since interest rates will rise.
- 2014 GDP growth may be 2.7%, Fed funds rate up 1% by mid-2015, 10-year: 3% end of 2014; 4% end of 2015.
- Europe faltering with no stimulus plans is bad for U.S. exports.
Cirrus Research Founder Satya Pradhuman: Capital Markets Easing, Lending Market Benign
- Stocks, especially small-caps, already had a sizable correction.
- Strong credit access, lots more IPOs, accelerating high-yield issuance.
- Large-cap and small-cap revenue growth rates stabilizing or accelerating.
- Capital markets easing, lending market benign, riskier firms getting capital.
California Controller's CEA Chief Economist, Lynn Reaser: Stocks To Correct 10% In 3 Months, Q3 GDP Up 3%
Aug. 4, 2014 • 2 Comments
- 10% stock market correction likely in next 3 months, but it won't be worrisome.
- Q3 GDP up 3%, 2015 slightly under 3%, interest rates up mid-'15.
- Strong U.S. sectors: autos, energy exploration and development, and tech. Weak: consumer non-discretionary, retail, agriculture.
Wells Fargo Advisors Chief Equity Strategist Stuart Freeman: Q2 Earnings To Rise 8%
- Q2 Earnings will be up 8% or so, with 3-to-1 up-to-down and broad growth.
- Stock volatility softening, market responding to Ukraine, Gaza like a bull market, because of strong fundamentals and dovish Fed.
- Without wage inflation, Fed may raise rates in 2015 H2 and keep adding liquidity for a while.
- Corporate capital spending finally picking up.