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Harlan Levy  

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  • Wells Fargo Equity Strategist Stuart Freeman: No Corp. Profit Recession, Up For '15, Mid-Cycle Bull Into '16
    Today, 8:58 AM 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Stocks up in '15: Q1 Flat From Q1 '14, S&P 500: 2,150 – 2,250, average $128.
    • Growth in jobs, incomes, wages, spending in ’15.
    • One quarter-point rate hike in summer, maybe two by late ’15, depending on international stimulus, strong dollar, low energy prices.
  • Moody's Analytics Economist Andres Carbacho-Burgos: More Job, Wage Growth In '15, Home Sales Up In H2
    Mon, Mar. 23 SPY, DIA, QQQ Comment!

    Summary

    • Real GDP growth around 3.5% in 2015 and 2016, then slower.
    • Stronger job and wage growth this year.
    • Renewed growth in single-family home sales, construction by H2.
  • Schwab Chief Investment Strategist Liz Ann Sonders: Volatility Continues In '15 Across All Asset Classes
    Mon, Mar. 16 SPY, DIA, QQQ 3 Comments

    Summary

    • 2015 GDP: up 3% overall, but weak Q1.
    • All indicators expect wage growth.
    • How often Fed raises rates is the important question.
  • Sterne Agee Chief Economist Lindsey Piegza: No Catalyst For Above-Trend GDP Growth.
    Mon, Mar. 9 SPY, DIA, QQQ Comment!

    Summary

    • GDP up due to the Fed -- a modest, non-organic 2 – 2.5% in 2015.
    • Huge drag: Business investment's downward trend.
    • Stock market synthetically supported, no rate hike 'til 2016.
    • Manufacturing inventory build-up bet could sour.
  • IHS Chief Economist Nariman Behravesh: GDP Up 3% Next 2 - 3 Years, Then Slows. Stocks: No Correction
    Mon, Mar. 2 SPY, DIA, QQQ 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Q1 GDP weak, 3 - 4% in Q2 and Q3, 3% ’til ’17 or ’18, then slowing.
    • Consumer spending to near 3 5 percent.
    • Stock euphoria puzzling, but no correction coming,.
    • Housing problems: Student loans, weak household formation.
  • ConvergEx Chief Market Strategist Nicholas Colas: Stocks Up 6-7% In '15, Next Crisis In 36 Months
    Mon, Feb. 23 SPY, DIA, QQQ 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Stocks up 6 to 7% in ’15. Next financial crisis in 36 months 25-basis-point rate hike in June, then December.
    • 2015: GDP up 2.5%, 2% in 2016.
    • 25-basis-point rate hike in June, then December.
    • 250,000 to 300,000 newbs/month for next 6 months.
  • Chief Economist Lynn Reaser: Q1 Real GDP Up 2.5%, 2015 Wages Up Near 2.5% And Stocks Up 3-4%.
    Mon, Feb. 16 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Q1: Real GDP up 2.5%. Q2 - 4: near 3%.
    • Inflation toward 2% by 2017, but Fed 2% inflation target now may be too high.
    • 2015: First rate hike might be September, 230,000 - 240,000 jobs/month month.
    • Brent oil price may be $65 or $68 by year-end.
  • Wells Fargo Equity Strategist Scott Wren: 2015 - S&P 500 Up 6-10%, No Sell-Off, Rates Up Summer
    Tue, Feb. 10 SPY Comment!

    Summary

    • 2015: S&P 500 total return up 6 to 10%. More volatility in 2015 than 2014, but no big sell-off.
    • First interest rate hike in summer, then in quarter points not every FOMC meeting, with Fed Funds up to 75 basis points at year-end.
    • Stability and better performance abroad in 2015, 1.3 percent growth.
  • BOA Merrill Lynch Managing Director Ethan Harris: 2015: Stocks Up Near 10%, September Rate Hike.
    Mon, Feb. 2 DIA, SPY, QQQ 18 Comments

    Summary

    • Solid 3% GDP growth in 2015, jobless rate near 5%, first rate hike in September.
    • Wage growth gets to 3.5% pace in nexxt few years. Stocks up about 10% in 2015.
    • Strong home price increases end, rising about 5% in each of the next two years.
  • RBS Chief U.S. Economist Michelle Girard: Rate Hike In September Not June Due To Weak Wage Growth
    Mon, Jan. 26 REZ, OIL, GREK 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Rate hike in September, not June, due to weak wage growth.
    • GDP 2015: 3% due to strong job growth, low jobless rate.
    • Oil price plunge not a signal of a much harder overseas landing and slower growth here than expected.
  • S&P U.S. Equity Strategist Sam Stovall: 2015 Earnings Up 8-9%, Large Caps Favored
    Tue, Jan. 13 SPY, DIA, QQQ 1 Comment

    Summary

    • 2015: U.S. economic growth up 3%, earnings up 8-9%, S&P 500: 2,250.
    • Rates up mid-year causing stocks to fall less than 10%.
    • Oil: $40 bottom, up to $60 by year-end.
  • Economist Nick Perna: 2015 - U.S. GDP Up Over 3%, Unless Russia, Greece Threaten Default
    Mon, Jan. 5 Comment!

    Summary

    • 2015: U.S. GDP up over 3%, rates up in June, 250,000+ new jobs/month.
    • Oil prices to rise to at least $80/barrel in 2015.
    • Housing 2015: Improvement in new home starts, home sales, maybe not prices.
  • Calvert Chief Investment Officer Natalie Trunow: 2015 GDP Up 3.5%, Stocks 5 - 10%
    Dec. 29, 2014 SPY, DIA, QQQ 1 Comment

    Summary

    • 2015: GDP up 3.5% is doable unless extreme weather, which could knockl 1 to 1.5% off GDP.
    • 2015: Stocks have room to rise in the 5 to 10% range, althoughthe high dollar hurts companies selling outside the U.S.
    • 2015 surprise: The Fed may not raise rates next summer as expected and if and when they do they will not do it as quickly or as much.
  • Economist Lynn Reaser: 2015: U.S. Economy Gains Momentum, GDP, Stocks, Wages Up
    Dec. 23, 2014 DIA, SPY, QQQ 5 Comments

    Summary

    • 2015: GDP UP 2.8%; S&P500 up 4%; small caps, tech, energy up.
    • 2015: 1st rate hike in June, fed funds to 1% by year-end.
    • 2015: Jobless rate 5.2 – 5.3%, hourly wages up 2.5%, retail prices up 2%.
  • Moody's Analytics Economist Andres Carbacho-Burgos: Real GDP Growth... Up To 3.5% In 2016
    Dec. 17, 2014 Comment!

    Summary

    • U.S. Real GDP growth: 2.2% in ’14, 3.3% in ’15, 3.5% in ’16.
    • 5% jobless rate by end of ’16, labor participation rate around 63.4% by ’16.
    • Single-family home construction will surge substantially in the next two years.
    • Household incomes and purchasing power will start to pick up in the next two years, also helping housing markets.
  • Cirrus Research's Satya Pradhuman: Stocks '15: Constructive, No Dramatic Uptick, Cyclical Leaders
    Dec. 8, 2014 SPY, DIA, QQQ Comment!

    Summary

    • First time in 5 years loan growth over 5% means businesses starting to take risk.
    • Bullish: Credit market suggests stabilizing to improving corporate trend.
    • Interest rates up mid-year unless dollar keeps strengthening.
    • Stocks in ’15: A constructive market, but no dramatic uptick, and cyclical leaders.
  • UCONN Economist Fred Carstensen: Stocks Significantly Overvalued, Significant Correction Coming
    Dec. 1, 2014 SPY, DIA, QQQ 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Investors on asset-buying binge, nervous about U.S. economy's future.
    • Rational fear is driving a housing bubble.
    • Negative global economic performance, U.S. failure to invest in infrastructure, R&D = slowing growth.
    • Stocks significantly overvalued, significant decline coming.
  • IHS Chief Economist Nariman Behravesh: U.S. GDP Growth '15, '16 - High 2% Range; '17 - 3%
    Nov. 24, 2014 SPY, DIA, QQQ 1 Comment

    Summary

    • U.S. GDP growth '15, '16 - high 2% range; '17 - 3%.
    • Rates up June at earliest, 25 basis points every other meeting.
    • Looking good: Transportation, airlines, consumer companies. Not good: companies with huge overseas exposure.
    • Oil price drop = $80 billion tax cut for consumers.
  • RBS Chief Economist Michelle Girard: Consumer Spending Rising, Faster In 2015 Than Last 2-3 Years
    Nov. 17, 2014 Comment!

    Summary

    • Consumer spending to pick up not only at year-end but at a faster rate in ’15 than in the last two to three years.
    • Labor market data looks very positive, interest rates probably up mid-2015 unless wages, inflation lag.
    • U.S. economy: better positioned for growth now than before in the recovery, Real GDP may approach 3% in '15.
  • S&P Capital IQ Equity Strategist Sam Stovall: S&P 500 May Rise 8% In 3 Months, Then Down 5%
    Nov. 10, 2014 SPY, DIA, QQQ 3 Comments

    Summary

    • S&P 500 may rise 8% next 3 months then drop 5% or more.
    • GDP '15, consumer spending: up 3%.
    • Fed to raise rates mid-'15, no bear market.
  • Webster Financial Economist Nick Perna: Real GDP Up Much Less Than 3% In '15 And '16
    Nov. 4, 2014 DIA, SPY, QQQ Comment!

    Summary

    • Real GDP to rise considerably less than 3 percent in 2015 and 2016.
    • Fed to raise rates June or July, fed funds rate up one point by mid-’16.
    • Deflation, not inflation, is the real risk, especially with a Republican House and Senate which would cut more spending and bash the Fed.
  • Wells Fargo Advisors' Stuart Freeman: Despite Volatility, S&P 500 Year-End 2015 Target 2,150 - 2,250.
    Oct. 28, 2014 DIA, SPY, QQQ Comment!

    Summary

    • Volatility won’t retard S&P 500, year-end ’15: 2,150 – 2,250, average $128. ’14: $120.
    • Historically, stocks up near 9% 12 months after a very volatile 12 months like ’14.
    • Interest rates up at end of ’15 or later. GDP ’14 up 2.1%, ’15 up 2.8%.
  • Lindsey Piezga: Weak U.S. Economy, Scant Wage Growth = No Rate Hike Until Late 2016, Maybe 2017
    Oct. 21, 2014 SPY, DIA, QQQ Comment!

    Summary

    • With the weak U.S. economy and little wage growth, the Fed won’t raise rates until late 2016, 2017 if data keeps disappointing.
    • Stock volatility will subside soon, but with the weak U.S. economy, expect a bear market at some point.
    • GDP up 1.4% in Q4, up 1.6% for 2014, 2.1% in ’15.
  • RBS Chief Economist Michelle Girard: 2015: GDP Up 3%, Consumer Spending Up Near 3%
    Sep. 23, 2014 Comment!

    Summary

    • Key factor for U.S. economy: improving consumer outlook: wages, salaries up over 3%, spending to rise near 3%.
    • 2015 GDP up 3%, jobless rate toward 5.5%.
    • H2 '14: Business spending may grow by double digits.
  • Moody's Andres Carbacho-Burgos: Rates Up In H2 2015, 2016; Fed Funds Over 1%, Strong GDP Growth Until H2 2017
    Sep. 15, 2014 Comment!

    Summary

    • Short-term rates up in H2 ’15, Fed funds over 1% in ’16, near 4% by ’18, strong GDP growth up to H2 ’17.
    • Job growth exceeds 300,000/month by end of ’15, then slows; stocks slow in ’15.
    • In the next three or four years, housing market shifts to cautious younger and first-time home buyers, so no housing bubble.
  • Mesirow Financial Economist Adolfo Laurenti: No Healthy Wage, Salary Gains Until Q2 '15 At Best
    Sep. 8, 2014 SPY, DIA, QQQ 1 Comment

    Summary

    • 1. No healthy wage and salary gains until Q2 ’15 at best.
    • 2. GDP growth near 3% through December, rate hike in Q3 ’15.
    • 3. Top worries: Europe and sovereign debt, financial markets lacking risk pricing.
  • ConvergEx Chief Market Strategist Nick Colas: Stocks, Earnings Up 8%/Year In '15, '16 If Low Volatility
    Sep. 2, 2014 DIA, SPY, QQQ 1 Comment

    Summary

    • GDP up 2.5% in Q3, 4, long slog recovery in '15.
    • If low volatility continues stocks, earnings up 8% in '15, '16.
    • 25-basis point rate hikes start in Q1 or Q2 '15.
    • New jobs: 250,000-300,000/month rest of '14, but not good jobs.
  • U.S. Equity Strategist Sam Stovall: GDP Up 2.1% In '14; 3% In '15
    Aug. 25, 2014 Comment!

    Summary

    • 2014: GDP up 2.1%. 2015: up 3% with good, not great global recovery.
    • Unemployment: Structural problems, U6 nearly 2x 6% jobless rate.
    • Interest rates up mid-2015, inflation up 1.9% in ’14, less than 2% in ’15.
  • Economist Nick Perna: Fed Funds Rate Up 1% Mid-2015, 10-Year: 3% End Of '14, 4% End Of '15.
    Aug. 19, 2014 Comment!

    Summary

    • Further stock gains tough since interest rates will rise.
    • 2014 GDP growth may be 2.7%, Fed funds rate up 1% by mid-2015, 10-year: 3% end of 2014; 4% end of 2015.
    • Europe faltering with no stimulus plans is bad for U.S. exports.
  • Cirrus Research Founder Satya Pradhuman: Capital Markets Easing, Lending Market Benign
    Aug. 13, 2014 SPY, DIA, QQQ Comment!

    Summary

    • Stocks, especially small-caps, already had a sizable correction.
    • Strong credit access, lots more IPOs, accelerating high-yield issuance.
    • Large-cap and small-cap revenue growth rates stabilizing or accelerating.
    • Capital markets easing, lending market benign, riskier firms getting capital.
  • California Controller's CEA Chief Economist, Lynn Reaser: Stocks To Correct 10% In 3 Months, Q3 GDP Up 3%
    Aug. 4, 2014 2 Comments

    Summary

    • 10% stock market correction likely in next 3 months, but it won't be worrisome.
    • Q3 GDP up 3%, 2015 slightly under 3%, interest rates up mid-'15.
    • Strong U.S. sectors: autos, energy exploration and development, and tech. Weak: consumer non-discretionary, retail, agriculture.
  • Wells Fargo Advisors Chief Equity Strategist Stuart Freeman: Q2 Earnings To Rise 8%
    Jul. 29, 2014 DIA, SPY, QQQ 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Q2 Earnings will be up 8% or so, with 3-to-1 up-to-down and broad growth.
    • Stock volatility softening, market responding to Ukraine, Gaza like a bull market, because of strong fundamentals and dovish Fed.
    • Without wage inflation, Fed may raise rates in 2015 H2 and keep adding liquidity for a while.
    • Corporate capital spending finally picking up.