Economist Fred Carstensen: GDP Up 2.5 - 3% Unlikely With Sequestration, Congress Inaction
Jun. 23, 2014 • 10 Comments
- GDP up 2.5 – 3% by 2016 is questionable with sequestration, Highway Trust Fund lapse, Congress’s inaction, global uncertainty.
- Stocks overvalued until there is a real business investment with 2 – 3% inflation.
- Household, student debt undermines housing; missing 3 million home purchases.
RBS Chief Economist Michelle Girard: Economy Moves Sideways, Financial Markets Too Exuberant
Jun. 17, 2014 • 1 Comment
- 2014 GDP growth: 2 percent, but U.S. economy mostly moving sideways, while financial markets too exuberant.
- The average year-to-date 214,000 monthly job gains below the 250,000 needed for more than 3% GDP growth.
- Too much exuberance in financial markets mistaking how long the Federal Reserve will take to raise rates.
Equity Strategist Scott Wren On 2014: Stagnant Wages, Consumer Spending, GDP Up 2.4%
- 2014: Stagnant wages, stagnant consumer spending, minimal inflation, GDP up 2.4%, 2.7% too optimistic.
- 180,000 – 220,000 new jobs/month, but major labor problem: low labor participation rate, long-term-unemployed.
- Stocks may run up in June and July, but 80 percent of why the bond market is where it is now is because growth will be modest.
Sam Stovall: GDP Q2: +3.7%, Q3: +3.1%, Q4: +3%, But All Projections Are Optimistic; Rates Up Mid-2015
- S&P Capital IQ economist projects GDP Q2: +3.7%, Q3: +3.1%, Q4: +3%, but Stovall thinks they’re all optimistic.
- The Federal Reserve will raise interest rates mid-2015 at the earliest and won’t taper the taper.
- April’s headline Consumer Price Index rose 2 percent year-over-year, which is not surprising and is going in the right direction.
Nick Perna: 2014 GDP Up 3%, Short-Term Rates Up Mid-2015, Long-Term 4-4.5% By End 2016
- 2014 GDP growth may exceed 3%, over 200,000 new jobs a month for the next two years.
- Inflation averages 2%, so no threat, and Congress’s inflation hawks unwisely maintain austerity, hampering recovery.
- The Federal Reserve won’t raise short-term rates until mid-2015, long-term rates 4 to 4.5% by year-end 2016.
Moody's Analytics' Senior Economist Andres Carbacho-Burgos: 2014 GDP Up 2.6%
- Carbacho-Burgos predicts 2014 GDP growth to be 2.6% and 3.9% in 2015, as recovery accelerates, although business investment is stagnant.
- New industrial job growth 1.9% in 2014, with more than 200,000 new jobs/month; 2.5% in 2015 with 300,000 jobs/month.
- 10-year bond rate holding steady at around 2.7%, but will breach 4.5% by year-end 2015.
Economist Edward Deak: Q2-Q4 GDP Growth 3% A Month, Up To 230,000 New Jobs A Month
- Q2, 3, 4: 200,000 to 230,000 new jobs/month, GDP up 3%/month.
- Quantitative easing to stop around October, if jobs and recovery continue.
- Short-term interest rates to start gradually rising in June or July 2015, and the 10-year bond rate.
Wells Fargo Advisors Chief Equity Strategist Stuart Freeman: More New Jobs, Broader GDP Growth Ahead
- New jobs have breadth, more to come, with 2014 GDP growth at 2.4% in a breadth of segments.
- Q1 earnings look good, with 2014 S&P 500 earnings to rise nearly 7%.
- With capacity utilization tightening, business finally starting to spend now.
Interview With Mesirow Economist Adolfo Laurenti: Over 200,000 New April Jobs,Q1 GDP Growth Near 1%, 3% In H2
- Over 200,000 new jobs in April, maybe 250,000.
- Q1 GDP growth near 1%, 2nd half over 3%.
- No Fed rate hike ‘til end of 2015. Bond bulls have upper hand temporarily.
California Controller's Council Of Economic Advisors Chief Economist Lynn Reaser: Stock Correction 10% At Most, Q1 Earnings Down 3%-4%
- Stocks to correct no more than 10%,as the economy picks up and no higher interest rates for a while.
- Q1 earnings could end up down 3 – 4% year-over-year as Q1 softness weighs in, but will be up 6% by year-end.2.Q1 earnings could end up down.
- Q1 GDP growth of about 1% should rise to 3% the rest of 2014.
ConvergEx Chief Market Strategist Nick Colas: Bonds Indicate Slowdown, Possibly Recession In 2nd Half
- 1.Bond yields not rising as everyone predicted, indicating U.S. economy weaker, with slowdown, possibly recession in second half.
- 2. Stocks to keep correcting next two to there weeks.
- 3. Housing a worry: If mortgage markets don't pick up, house prices will stagnate for next few years.
Calvert Investment Management's Natalie Trunow: Worries; Meager Income Growth, Housing Slowing
- Top worries: lack of consumer income growth and a slowing housing recovery.
- GDP growth to accelerate, possibly to 3.5%.
- Stocks could have 10% correction: a buying opportunity.
UConn Economist Fred Carstensen: Stocks Overvalued, To Trend Down In 2014
- Stocks are overvalued and will trend downward although not sharply over this year as the Federal Reserve cuts back on quantitative easing.
- Economic growth will continue to be anemic, because by far most personal income growth goes to the wealthy, not the majority of households.
- The modest housing recovery will continue, given a fairly stable economy.
IHS Chief Economist Nariman Behravesh: Stocks Up 5-6% In '14, Fed Rate Rise In Q2 '15
- The Federal Reserve won't raise rates until the second quarter of 2015.
- Stocks up by single digits in 2014 - 5-6 percent.
- 150,000 - 200,000 new jobs per month in 2014.
RBS Chief Economist Michelle Girard: Industrial Production To Rise 3%, Home Prices 5-7%
Mar. 17, 2014 • Comment!
- Consumer confidence dip a blip, a lot to do with bad weather. Stronger retail sales in March and April.
- It will be difficult for the U.S. economy to grow 3% or more. 2014 forecast: 2.5% GDP growth.
- Industrial production to rise 3%, and home prices to rise 5 to 7%.
S&P's Sam Stovall: Good Chance Bull Market Gets To 6, Earnings Up 5-6%, GDP 3%
- Good but not great chance the five-year-old bull market will celebrate a sixth birthday.
- 2014 earnings will rise 5 to 6 percent, while GDP will increase 3 percent.
- This year's jobless rate will end up at 6.4% in 2014 and 5.7% in 2015.
- Wells Fargo Advisors' Scott Wren: 2014 GDP 2.4%, 6.2% Jobless, Earnings Up 6-7%
- Bank Of America Economist Ethan Harris: 2014 GDP Up 3%, S&P 500 To 2000, 2015 5.5% Jobless Rate
- ConvergEx Chief Market Strategist Nick Colas - 2014: 2.5% Growth, 5-7% Stock Gains
- Wells Fargo Advisors' Stuart Freeman On 2014: 2.4% Growth, Profits Up 5%-6%
- Natalie Trunow: For 2014, 3.5% Growth Possible, 5%-10% Market Correction, Not 10%-15%
- Interview With Adolfo Laurenti: 2014 - More Capital Spending, Jobless Rate To 6.5%
- Cirrus Research's Satya Pradhuman: Stocks To Rise, Low Rates Force Investors Further Onto Risk Curve
- Moody's Analytics Economist Andres Carbacho-Burgos: Recovery: 2-3 More Years, Pre-Recession Jobless Rate After 2018
- Economist Nick Perna -- 2014: No Major Stock Market Gains, 10-Year Treasury Rates Rise
- Interview With Fred Carstensen: 2 Years To Full Recovery, Stocks To Correct 10-20% In 2-4 Years
- CA Controller's Council Of Economic Advisors' Chief Economist Lynn Reaser: 2014 - Mfg. Strong, Stocks Up 5-6%
- Interview With S&P Capital IQ Chief Equity Strategist Sam Stovall: 2014: GDP Up 2.6%, Stock Correction Overdue
- Interview With Wells Fargo Advisors' Scott Wren: S&P 2014 Target At 1,850-1,900
- Interview With RBS Chief Economist Michelle Girard: 2014 - 2.3% Growth, Home Sales Like 2013
- Interview With Webster Financial Adviser Nick Perna: 2014: 2.5% Growth, True Jobless Rate 12.5%
- Interview With BOfA Economist Ethan Harris: 3% Growth In 2014, Austerity's Drag 0.5%