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Harm Hoeksema

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  • Electronic Arts And Activision Blizzard: Gaming Stocks Will Greatly Diverge [View article]
    It seems that I was wrong on the ATVI points.

    1) I'm especially surprised by the 1,805M revenues of Activision in Okt-Nov-Dec 2013. As such, quartely revenues are not below 2,100M but 2,270M instead. I'm still wondering for CoD units sold though.

    2) I expected 6.6M WoW subscribers currently, unforfortuntely we do not have the figure of end of January. Still, it is quite remarkable that Q4 subscribers remained stable.

    3) Regarding the marketing costs, I expected a figure near 300 million, while the actual figure is 239M so I was strongly off there as well.
    Feb 6 05:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Analysts Disagree About Activision Blizzard's Quarter [View article]
    Dear Memphis Minnie, These are indeed reasons why I also mentioned it as a potential upside for ATVI:

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    Still - While the game itself is very good initially, it also wears off very quickly. Although it is possible, it will be quite difficult to make it lasting for longer than two years.
    Feb 6 01:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Electronic Arts And Activision Blizzard: Gaming Stocks Will Greatly Diverge [View article]
    By the way, would you expect a triple outperformance if we include Ubisoft?
    Feb 5 02:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Electronic Arts And Activision Blizzard: Gaming Stocks Will Greatly Diverge [View article]
    I have the feeling I stepped on a few toes with this article. A lot of sources are hyperlinked in the text, logical explanations are provided throughout and again I would like to point out that this article is primarily about Long EA. In that sense I am more certain about the EA part. That does not mean however that ATVI is stable at all.

    You mentioned it yourself: COD, WoW and Skylanders are declining while most figures still has to be shown to the world tomorrow. You truly believe this is currently priced in its high stock price?

    Additionally, can you be sure that Destiny will not be postponed to a December release?

    Heartstone definitely will be a success, no doubt about that. Yet for me there are way too many long-term warning signs. But then again, ATVI is also well-known for its last-minute positive surprises.
    Feb 5 02:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Electronic Arts And Activision Blizzard: Gaming Stocks Will Greatly Diverge [View article]
    Thank you for your response, and your expectation for double outperformance.

    I would like to point out that this article is primarily about Long EA, and less about ATVI. In that respect, I am also much more certain of EA's positive signs than ATVI negative's. Still I believe there are too many issues waiting to be shown. These issues are mainly in Activision's part of the 'Activision & Blizzard'. Due to these issues I find its current valuation - less than $2 dollars below its all-time record - too high.
    Feb 5 02:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Electronic Arts And Activision Blizzard: Gaming Stocks Will Greatly Diverge [View article]
    Thank you for your nuanced response.

    I could have reported more about the book values (maybe that is for another article). For now, I tried to take a look into the future of the publisher, which results in more stability for EA in comparison to the last decade. I can imagine that we see this stability reflected in the stock price.

    Regarding ATVI, I suppose we have to see for tomorrow's results. I'm optimistic about Blizzard, but worried about Activision's part. Whether the warning signs truly reflect the upcoming future, we shall see.
    Feb 5 02:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Electronic Arts And Activision Blizzard: Gaming Stocks Will Greatly Diverge [View article]
    As a sidenote, the recent market movements of the last week are already indicating a diverging move between EA and ATVI. What are your expectations for the publishers (EA, ATVI, TTWO, etc.) ánd the console giants (SNE, MSFT and NTDOY). Long or short?
    Feb 5 01:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Video Game Industry In The Midst Of A Tsunami [View article]
    It is true that Electronic Arts (EA) has a stake in many.

    Still his point is valid overall - most of the revenue made by Mobile Apps is taken by small, innovative studios - not by the major publishers.
    Jan 31 02:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Activision Blizzard: Financial Engineering 101 [View article]
    I'm really thinking of selling ATVI nowadays... here are some of my thoughts:

    - Call of Duty Ghost is a flop, as review scores are low, marketing cost madness and actual sales to customers are still unknown (goodbye to the yearly cashflow cow)

    - WoW is still declining by the month

    - Skylanders is in majorly competetive waters now

    - The price increase due to the Vivendi buyout was overly exaggerated (more than 10% increase while this has no impact on profitability)

    - Besides the Starcraft II expansion, the Full Year 2013 line-up has been dramatic.

    I quess within 1 year Bobby Kotick and his investment group will jump ship. It's just a thought, but I hope that when the stock gets below $10 the talent of the company will take the opportunity.
    Nov 18 10:32 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Activision Blizzard: Expectations Raised, Shares Down [View article]
    Besides the cash levels, what do you think is the reason that ATVI's market cap is three times EA's?

    For both gaming componies the coming year will be harsh. Especially ATVI, for which I do not like betting on the success of two games: Call of Duty 1000 and Skylanders withdrawal.
    May 10 10:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Call Of Duty Can't Save Activision [View article]
    Very solid article -- I completely agree!
    Dec 17 02:40 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A security breach at LinkedIn (LNKD) has exposed 6.5M passwords at the site, according to a Norwegian IT site.  [View news story]
    Further up, users have reported that LinkedIn emails have sent spam from their account. It can go as far as passwords, email addresses, etc.
    Jun 6 11:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A security breach at LinkedIn (LNKD) has exposed 6.5M passwords at the site, according to a Norwegian IT site.  [View news story]
    Note that it might just contain a 'sample' of what has been hacked...
    Jun 6 11:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Following a stunning 400K subscriber drop for Star Wars: The Old Republic in the March quarter, Electronic Arts (EA) plans to make much of the game available for free starting in July. EA spent over $150M to develop The Old Republic, and the shift to a "freemium" model could represent a last-ditch effort to make the game pay off. (yesterday)  [View news story]
    I have to agree that this comment is completely 'factual' wrong.

    It is still subscriber based, just you can 'try it' for some levels to get more players hooked and let more players experience the game in order to get them paying.

    Blizzard started this approximately 3-4 years ago and look where it got them.
    Jun 6 06:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Electronic Arts: A Lineup Of Kitsch Rather Than Art [View article]
    Given your link (http://tinyurl.com/bs2...), when you add 'Net Income' you practically see losses for the past five years. Additionally, we just had one minor positive quartile, but three upcoming bad ones, they even admitted it on the future outlook at the most recent shareholder meeting. At the time I do not predict the liquidation of the company. But you have to wait at least one or two years before it's a buy again (given that they show proper management, R&D and strategy).

    To provide real-time information, apparently some insider selling is going on (link: http://bit.ly/KESocf).
    May 21 07:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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