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Harold Fredrick  

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  • Demographics Of The Lost Generation [View article]

    You bring up a good point about a return of jobs that had been considered obsolete. It's interesting that one of the growing industries in my home state of SC is organic farming. Could you imagine telling someone 20 years ago that agriculture would have a positive outlook?

    The Internet is also bringing a return of culture that had been considered obsolete. Via the web, younger people are learning of decades-old music, art, and literature. Whereas a college kid 20 years ago probably never heard of Thelonious Monk, the old jazz man has a cult following on college campuses today. I would be disingenuous if I said that all were bad for my generation.
    Dec 30, 2011. 11:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Demographics Of The Lost Generation [View article]

    I, too, am encouraged by what's coming down the medical innovation pipeline. But the FDA is an innovation killer, and its powers are growing. Even if Obamacare were dismantled (for which there appears to be a 50-50 chance at this point), burdensome federal medical regulation will continue to grow, stifling innovation. What we need is agency slayers in Congress and the White House. We need to replace the FDA with an independent organization such as UL. An organization that doesn't protect the interests of Big Pharma, etc. I seriously doubt we're going to get the "change" we need in Romney, Gingrich, or the current GOP Congress.
    Dec 30, 2011. 11:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Home Price Declines Over The Years [View article]
    Frank, Dodd, and the originators of exotic instruments sure made a mess of things, didn't they? At the time of the financial crisis, the majority of mortgages held by Fannie and Freddie were subprime. I still can't believe that Bernanke & Co. didn't see this coming in '07 or early '08.

    It's still going to take some time to climb out of this. Yes, we're making painfully slow progress. But until the unemployment rate falls to acceptable levels and housing turns positive, we're not going to see a recovery. And it doesn't look like that's going to happen in 2012. I'm afraid that world events (namely the crisis in the Eurozone and oil supply shocks by Iran) will knock us back down into the hole. The Bears will rule for at least another year.
    Dec 30, 2011. 11:18 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Footnote 2011: Being Cautiously Optimistic Was Right [View article]
    I don't know, with the S&P YoY change at 0 (which, factoring inflation, would make ROI negative for the year), I can't say that I'm happy about 2011. And the outlook for 2012 isn't that great either: Eurozone on the brink, winding down of Fed "stimulus" programs, Iran and the oil supply, etc. 2012 might be good for someone who shorts or holds a ton of oil, but for the average Joe investor, it looks like it's going to be another 2011. Or worse.
    Dec 30, 2011. 11:00 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Euro Vs. The Dollar Hits A Year To Date Low [View article]
    The silver lining of a Eurozone meltdown would be that the Dollar would strengthen as the Euro weakens. Might have a nominally positive effect on the trade imbalance as well. Other than that, I'm afraid that the overall outlook for 2012 is negative.
    Dec 30, 2011. 10:48 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Most Telling Chart Of 2011 [View article]
    I honestly expected the Eurozone to implode by the end of the year, but it looks like Merkel & Co. are adept at kicking the can down the road. The meltdown will eventually happen, and it's going to be interesting to see how that affects the US. The "Big 6" banks have a ton of Euro debt exposure, so it might be a bumpy ride. Plus, the Fed has already shot its last bullets in the form of QE2, continued ZIRP, and Operation Twist. No TARP or secret bailouts this time should banks come crashing down. We can only prepare for the worst and hope for the best for 2012.
    Dec 30, 2011. 10:42 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 500 Snapshot: Back In The Green Year-To-Date [View article]
    Honestly, it really shouldn't matter from an investor's perspective if the S&P closes the year nominally positive or nominally negative. The market has been terrible this year, and the ROI has been negative for long investors (less than the rate of inflation). Sure, ending the year nominally positive has positive psychological implications, but any way you slice it, this year's performance has been awful for the average Joe equity holder. The silver lining has been that several dividend stocks have been generous this year.

    The really disappointing part is that the S&P could only do this well with the Fed throwing the kitchen sink at the economy with QE2, continued ZIRP, and Operation Twist. How will next year look when the effects of these programs dissipate?
    Dec 30, 2011. 10:11 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Policy Response To The Crises Of 2008 Vs. 1929: Have We Improved? [View article]
    "Such a policy never succeeds ... and the result is hyperinflation. And that's exactly what you can bet on ... rising commodity costs which the Fed is helpless to do anything about ... as eventually that's what the 'money printing produces' ... rising commodity costs induced by a weakened currency."

    Ryan, I agree with you wholeheartedly. Interest rates were already too low in the years preceding the crisis. ZIRP and QE is gutting the middle class, but the wealthy don't care. Those policies have protected their equities and commodities. Sooner or later, however, the wealthy will realize that they can't stay wealthy without a middle class. That's when things will get really interesting.
    Dec 27, 2011. 01:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exhausted Unemployment Benefits Could Pull Economy Under [View article]
    Thanks, CK. Actually, I've come up with a completely "outside the box" way of overcoming. It will take time and effort, and it might not work. But I'm sure as heck going to try it.
    Dec 25, 2011. 11:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Negative Implications Of The Fed's Secret $7.7 Trillion Bank Bailout [View article]
    Great one! Much respect for Denninger and Rothbard! The logical solution is to break up the banks. If AT&T was too big to survive in the 80's, then the cartel certainly is today.
    Dec 12, 2011. 11:53 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Demographics Of The Lost Generation [View article]
    The early 80's double dip was definitely painful. But the difference is that it was planned. It was a result of Volker raising interest rates to kill off inflation. This time, we face a systemic failure. I can only hope that my generation can escape in tact.
    Dec 10, 2011. 03:09 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Demographics Of The Lost Generation [View article]
    No, actually, a great many of us have degrees in fields that have traditionally paid well. Lot of ranting in your post though...
    Dec 7, 2011. 12:16 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Negative Implications Of The Fed's Secret $7.7 Trillion Bank Bailout [View article]
    Definitely a thumbs for mentioning Andrew Jackson!
    Dec 6, 2011. 09:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Negative Implications Of The Fed's Secret $7.7 Trillion Bank Bailout [View article]

    I wanted to "like" your comment, but the site is experiencing technical difficulties.
    Dec 6, 2011. 05:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Negative Implications Of The Fed's Secret $7.7 Trillion Bank Bailout [View article]
    Dear Readers,

    Thank you for taking the time to read and comment on my article. If you like what I wrote, I invite you to follow me and/or "like" this article. The follow button is on the upper-left side of the screen below my profile picture. The like button is next to the alpha logo under the title. Thanks again!
    Dec 6, 2011. 11:07 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment