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Harris Roen

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  • SolarCity: Overpriced Or Opportunity? [View article]
    Thanks for your in-depth addition. I agree with much of what you are saying, and it was not my goal in this article to lay bare what are incredibly complicated financials for SolarCity. I still contend, however, that income statements as reported are extremely important to look at. If for no other reason, that is where the majority of stock watchers are seeking comparisons.
    Mar 31 12:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Outsized Solar Stock Returns Continue? [View article]
    Concerning CSIQ, You may have missed the part of the article that says:

    ...(even though CSIQ is headquartered in Canada, virtually all of its operations are in China).

    Good point about HSOL, though the SEC filings still lists its HQ in China http://1.usa.gov/NTw46t
    Mar 26 09:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Outsized Solar Stock Returns Continue? [View article]
    Nice analysis. I'd like to see the chart, but I can't get the link to work.

    I believe a correction will happen to the sector as a whole, though there may be individual stocks that buck the trend. Having said that, a downdraft in some of the more closely followed stocks may pull down others in the short-term.
    Mar 22 07:22 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Outsized Solar Stock Returns Continue? [View article]
    ASYS and ALTI also fall into the low debt camp.
    Mar 20 11:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Finding Green Dividend Yield [View article]
    Thanks Tom, I was going to create a similar list.
    Feb 21 10:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Finding Green Dividend Yield [View article]
    There are many utilities that have solar and wind as a small percentage of their energy portfolios, including Duke Energy http://bit.ly/M476QN and NextEra http://bit.ly/M476QP . More "pure play" options are harder to find, but one with a lager percentage of renewables is NRG Yield http://bit.ly/M476QR .
    Feb 16 09:41 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Finding Green Dividend Yield [View article]
    Good point. In addition to that, using “revenues” as “sales” is always tricky for a financial company, which is essentially what Hannon Armstrong is. To your point, I just looked at total revenue net of investment interest expense over the six quarters previous to the current reporting period, which averages to $3.6 million. This is about 25% less than what was reported in the most recent period.
    Feb 15 09:40 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Blockbuster Year For Alternative Energy Stocks [View article]
    I would like to see sales at JKS get back up to 2011 levels to make it a top pick.
    Jan 16 03:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Blockbuster Year For Alternative Energy Stocks [View article]
    SUNE is still looks quite speculative with relatively high debt levels, persistently negative cash flow and negative earnings. Still, sales have been steady, and I agree with you that solar install is a very good business area to be in going forward. It is also one of the most widely held stocks in alternative energy mutual fundshttp://http://bit.ly/1hujtAZ .
    Jan 16 08:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Blockbuster Year For Alternative Energy Stocks [View article]
    Retail "plug-and-play" solar is a challenge, unless you are off the grid. This is because getting the electrical connection between the house and the grid correct is critical, and best left to an electrician at this point. Having said that, Panasonic has been exploring retail solar and may be the best to successfully execute, see http://bit.ly/1dyn2a4
    Jan 16 08:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Clean Energy Investment Opportunity: Offshore Wind [View article]
    Yes, AMSC is a good wind play. You can read my company profile page here http://bit.ly/1aBsC7z
    Nov 18 11:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SolarCity - Trouble Or Opportunity? [View article]
    Good point, I hadn't thought about the seasonality factor. This will be even more important as SCTY expands beyond its current 13 state region into more northern areas.
    Nov 15 10:34 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • SolarCity - Trouble Or Opportunity? [View article]
    Agreed. See my article on SCTY from last month http://bit.ly/1cvPhSf
    Nov 15 08:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Smart Investments In The Smart Grid [View article]
    I plan to add Silver Spring Networks (SSNI) to my tracking system this month.
    Nov 14 09:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Smart Investments In The Smart Grid [View article]
    The simple answer is that fair value is EPS*PE. The hard part is knowing which earnings numbers to use. I find that the “fairest” way is to look at a combination of trailing earnings, forward earnings, and historic PEs.

    So for CSCO, I average three years of trailing annual EPS (1.87, 1.50, 1.17) and three years of projected annual EPS (2.11, 2.26, 2.43) and current quarter projected earnings (0.51) and total EPS for the last 12 months (1.87), which averages to 1.714.

    The bottom of the fair price range is determined by taking the median of current PE and annual PE lows for the past three years (10.515), and multiplying it by the average EPS determined above (1.714) to get a low fair price of 18.02. The top of the fair price range is similarly calculated by using the median of current PE and annual PE highs for the past three years (13.545) multiplied by the average EPS (1.714) to get a high fair price range of 23.22.

    CSCO was trading at 23.51 when fair value was calculated. If we take difference between its actual price and its low fair price range (23.51 - 18.02 = 5.49), and divide it by the difference between high and low fair price range (23.22 - 18.02 = 5.2), that puts it at 106% of its fair value range, which I consider overvalued.

    For more information on fair value, see http://bit.ly/1i4T11J
    Nov 12 06:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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