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  • Oil Services: Growth, Stability, And Dividends [View article]
    Oilfinder, not familiar but will look into it.
    TFCAB, your welcome. CJES and RES and SD are good companies to hold.
    Definitely agree about HAL the company is performing.
    PalmDesertRat, stability is talking about earnings and the companies producing cash flow. You won’t have moments like the one JP Morgan experienced this past week. In regards to the share price volatility is a good thing.
    May 12, 2012. 05:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Skyworks Solutions: A Smart Play On The Continued Success Of Apple [View article]
    Sorry that you didn't like the earlier response.

    Apple is now sort of becoming a victim of its own success. We think people are trying to talk themselves in to trying anyway to think Apple is overvalued even though based on the usual metrics its cheap. We currently have no position in Apple. If it was to drop in price considerably then we would think about a position.

    Saturation- in meteorological sense means a 100%.

    Therefore, with respect to your question if Apple is or has reached saturation in growth, we think that’s a hard question to answer point blank. There is still growth in US. The international market still has plenty of growth.

    It’s true, short-term Apple and the stocks that supply Apple with chips have experienced a healthy sell-off. We believe over the next year as Apple releases its Iphone 5 this will benefit Skyworks. This is why we are long (SWKS). The company is a play on the overall smart phone market and its projected increase presence in Apple’s Iphone going forward.
    Apr 23, 2012. 05:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Skyworks Solutions: A Smart Play On The Continued Success Of Apple [View article]
    The customers of Apple are all extremely pleased with their purchase and will continue to buy the latest and greatest that Apple has to offer. I've never talked to anyone who said they hate their iphone and can't wait to go back to android. Bottom line, Apple is a titan who will crush all who stand in their way. Feel free to open a short position if you dare.
    Apr 22, 2012. 01:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Canyon Services Group: The Undervalued And Unknown Two-Bagger From The True North [View article]
    Thanks for the questions,

    We haven’t really painted that rosy of a scenario when it comes to the revenue and earnings of the company. If you were to look at the last four years of financial results you’ll see that this company has built a business that has really impressive margins.

    Ex: 2X11 Results in (000’s) Revenue $372,096 EBITDA $156,798 NI $95,270/ Canyon Exited at NI rate of 28%
    EBITDA MARGIN 42% NI MARGIN 26%

    Sorry about that. We should have included the spreadsheet we did on their last four years of financials. If you look at it, we were actually conservative with our projected numbers.

    Now with respect to the value or P/E multiples we aren’t asking a lot for the company to be given respectable multiples. The market is really focused on the price of natural gas. They can’t seem to grasp the concept that the oil and oil liquids play in the shale plays are going to be more than enough to offset the decline in drilling in the dry gas shales. There is already a record in US land RIG count. This will continue to increase. Also the market isn’t giving any credit to the ramp up in the Mississippian play and the start of drilling in the Brown Dense shale play and the Marine Tuscaloosa shale. This is the main reason that the US oil service sector and the Canadian sector is being given away. The market is just not being forward looking in its thinking. Watching the opinions of the experts on CNBC and Bloomberg they just don’t get the ever increasing shale plays that have oil and oil liquids. They continue to focus on dry gas. Just look at the earnings by Halliburton and Schlumberger. These two companies have already commented that the oil plays are making up for the decline in drilling from the dry gas plays. This should accelerate in the next two years.

    I hope this helps explain our reasoning to be long the oil service sector.

    Canyon's 4th qtr results link:
    http://bit.ly/JXEgt3
    Apr 21, 2012. 06:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Canyon Services Group: The Undervalued And Unknown Two-Bagger From The True North [View article]
    Thank you for your comment and for reading the article.

    We fully realize GasFrac uses LPG technology to fracture wells. Yet, they are still a fracking company and compete against all the above mentioned companies for service contracts. Therefore, not to include them in comparisons is not reflecting the reality that they are a peer.
    GasFrac is definitely an interesting topic with in this industry.
    Apr 21, 2012. 02:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jaguar Mining: An Activist Investor Waiting To Pounce [View article]
    Hearing IAMGOLD is Pursing an Acquisition of Jaguar Mining

    The Rumor:

    IAMGOLD (NYSE: IAG) is looking to acquire Jaguar Mining (NYSE: JAG), according to sources. Jaguar has been the subject of chatter involving China's Shandong Gold. It was rumored last week that Shandong had withdrawn an unconfirmed offer to acquire Jaguar.

    Benzinga spoke Friday with a representative of IAMGOLD who said that Jaguar Mining was one of 50 companies they have evaluated over the past year, but she would not comment specifically if they were actively pursing the Brazilian miner.
    Jaguar Mining closed at $3.54 Friday, a loss of 4.84% on twice the average daily volume.

    Read more: http://bit.ly/IpL97M
    Apr 15, 2012. 05:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Jaguar Mining: An Activist Investor Waiting To Pounce [View article]
    The holding out by management for a $10+ bid might have been a good idea in november 2011 but not now. I would hope that they would take any deal above $7 before their options are completely worthless. Regardless, the worse case scenario appears to already be priced into the stock.
    Apr 14, 2012. 11:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jaguar Mining: An Activist Investor Waiting To Pounce [View article]
    Analysts have commented that JAG assets are not significant enough to attract a buyer but I would disagree. They have undervalued assets and are producing over 150k oz a year. Management had been unable to live up to their promises and control costs. There is massive underlying value or there would never attracted interest in the first place.
    Apr 13, 2012. 10:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jaguar Mining: An Activist Investor Waiting To Pounce [View article]
    Bretb,

    Thanks for the upbeat post! I am simply stating facts in all of my articles with a slight bit of interpretation. When I say we will find out this quarter I am more referring to the expiration of the shareholder rights plan which they initiated on March 21 and expires 120 days after.

    There is no question that management has dropped the ball on Jaguar. Im not sure if that had more to do with the Ex-CEO or the current "Special Committee."
    Apr 13, 2012. 04:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Jaguar Mining: An Activist Investor Waiting To Pounce [View article]
    The "Poison Pill" expires at the end of the quarter so I would defiantly expect an answer by then. Jaguar's management is very vague when addressing the potential buyout issue. I do seek comfort in their decision to use JP Morgan to broker the sale. If management doesn't find a buyer Im thinking that they major shareholders will attempt to takeover management instead of taking a large loss. Management doesn't stand a chance if investor activism takes over. JAG shareholders are fed up with management and would likely side with the hedge funds.
    Apr 13, 2012. 03:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Taking A Stake In Natural Gas With Carbo Ceramics [View article]
    Carbo is not free from the risks associated with fracking. If a nationwide moratorium was put in place there would be no need to buy Carbo's products. Hydraulic fracturing is here to stay because it creates jobs and tax revenue. The risk of regulation is always a concern when it comes to fossil fuel extraction. Throughout the years, issues come and go but Oil & Gas companies continue to make money. Carbo is fairly valued with limited growth and more attractive investments exsist in (CJES), (RES), and (HAL). The previously mentioned companies have more upside potential and the same downside as Carbo
    Apr 3, 2012. 01:56 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jaguar Mining: Q2 2012 Buyout Decision Could Offer 80% Upside [View article]
    The market doesn’t believe that management will be able to reach a deal. The day of the reported Shandong Gold bid, the stock reached $7.80 which is still substantially lower than the offered $9.30. Management has been in talks with other companies for a possible collaboration or partnership since Q2 2010. They were trying to solidify financing for the Gurupi mine which I believe might have caused the unsolicited offer.

    Remember, Jaguar has a historically large % of short interest. Management identified that the 2014 convertibles were capping the equity’s value. They were looking at possible options for a possible tender or issue high yield debt to remove this large short interest.

    Management must know that they only way this stock is going higher is if they accept a buyout. Management has never discussed finding a new CEO. This would be top priority if they were only looking at obtaining financing for the Gurupi mine.
    Mar 27, 2012. 04:26 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Jaguar Mining: Q2 2012 Buyout Decision Could Offer 80% Upside [View article]
    I'm pleased to say that my article has sparked some interest in this merger opportunity. On Fast Money this evening, Sachin Shah a special situations and merger arbitrage strategist at Tullett Prebon mentioned he likes Jaguar Mining. JAG up 6% after hours.

    http://bit.ly/HdqR0w
    Mar 26, 2012. 08:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Oil & Gas Stocks Pumping Out Big Profits With Strong Mutual Fund Interest [View article]
    GASFRAC just came out with 4th quarter earnings. Analysts expected between $77-70m and they reported $59m. EPS consensus was $.08 and they reported $.03.

    The good news is the CEO said, "I expect 2012 to be another year of progress for GASFRAC, albeit not without its challenges. It is never easy introducing a new technology but I firmly believe GASFRAC has the right elements in place and with focus, hard work, time and determination we will achieve on the great potential of our technology."

    Analysts will likely significantly reduce next years expectations. Hopefully they will be able to control cost better next year.
    Mar 16, 2012. 06:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Oil & Gas Stocks Pumping Out Big Profits With Strong Mutual Fund Interest [View article]
    Specific gravity is the ratio of density of a substance compared to the density of fresh water at 4°C (39° F). At this temperature the density of water is at its greatest value and equal 1 g/mL. An object will float in water if its density is less than the density of water and sink if its density is greater than that of water. Similarly, an object with specific gravity less than 1 will float and those with a specific gravity greater than one will sink.

    Gasfrac states LPG has a Surface Gravity of .51 and Water of 1.02

    This is stating that LPG has half the density of water.

    When we store water do we keep it under pressure? NO, the reason for that is because water unlike gas is incompressible. Well it can be compressed but it would take a massive amount pressure for very little compression. As we all know gas can be compressed easily.

    When we force water into a well, the water does not compress and fractures the rock. When we force gas into a well, the gas compresses until it eventually fractures the rock. So I’m guessing that it’s safe to say that if we want to break something we would want to use the densest object.

    Forcing highly flammable gas down a well doesn’t seem very safe to me. This could easily result in a flash fire which already happened to Husky back in March of 2011 during the fracking process. Husky never reported who was at fault for the incident.

    GasFrac claims RESULTS*: Higher intial production and immediate economic benefits) on their website. *Actual production results above. GASFRAC does not guarantee similar results for all wells.
    This may be true for some wells.

    I have heard other reports that customers were disappointed with GasFrac’s results. The operating margins are very slim which tells me that they are offering their services at a steep discount in order to attain contracts.

    There are times when this stock may be attractive such as if we have another severe drought here in Texas and farmers hike up water prices. I just believe that GasFrac is an extremely speculative investment considering the entire industry is selling at very depressed valuations. If GasFrac becomes an industry changer then I will be the first one to tell you, you were right. I was not impressed with their 3rd quarter 2011 results and am excited to see their 4th quarter results released today after the bell.

    I am not short GasFrac and obviously not long.
    Mar 16, 2012. 11:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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