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Harry Tuttle

 
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  • Mar. Pending Home Sales: +5.1% to 94.1 vs. +1.7% expected, +2.1% prior, -11.4% Y/Y. "Based on the current uptrend with very favorable affordability conditions, rising apartment rents and ongoing job creation, existing-home sales should rise around 5%-10% this year," NAR's Lawrence Yun says.  [View news story]
    What was the name of Saddam Hussein's minister of information?
    Apr 28 10:08 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fed policy has pumped up the stock market and allowed companies to borrow money at low rates, but few others enjoy benefits, so many economists view QE2 as a disappointment. But Ryan Avent thinks the program has been mostly a success: "Growth in the first quarter is disappointing, it’s true. Without QE2 it would be more disappointing still, and very probably negative."  [View news story]
    tiger:

    I always try to reply. My true tiredness is with those who are gullible enough to believe this stuff will work "one more time." As far as I am concerned we are just blowing the same bubble we started, at least, in 1998 (LTCM). That will not be cured by sleep.

    Thanks for the comment (mine is the thumbs up).
    Apr 27 07:50 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Fed policy has pumped up the stock market and allowed companies to borrow money at low rates, but few others enjoy benefits, so many economists view QE2 as a disappointment. But Ryan Avent thinks the program has been mostly a success: "Growth in the first quarter is disappointing, it’s true. Without QE2 it would be more disappointing still, and very probably negative."  [View news story]
    Really? I say we try without the Fed and see what happens.

    I am tired of the financial engineers' view of the world. In addition, I think it is wrong.
    Apr 26 09:17 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon.com (AMZN): Q1 EPS of $0.44 vs. consensus of $0.60. Revenue of $9.86B (+38% Y/Y) beats by $0.3B. Shares -0.7% AH. (PR)  [View news story]
    The mother of all spins. Big miss, high p/e. Let's focus on sales...

    Gotta love Bezos. He doesn't really care about Wall St. and it shows (which is why he built a great company even if the stock is expensive).
    Apr 26 04:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Austerity Won't Shrink the Deficit in a Balance Sheet Recession [View article]
    Japan has been in a balance sheet recession for 2 decades.

    In those 20 years, they have had MANY cyclical upturns.

    Their debt to GDP went from 50% to 200%+ and growing.

    They did save the banks.

    Good luck!
    Apr 26 03:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • FX markets yawn as Treasury Sec. Geithner defends the greenback, saying "we will never embrace a strategy to weaken the dollar ... our policy has been and will always be, as long as I will be in office, that a strong dollar is in the interest of the country."
     [View news story]
    So what, if any, tools does the treasury secretary have to "defend" the dollar?

    The idea that the US Treasury and NOT the Fed deals with the value of the dollar is based on plain ignorance repeated over decades.

    Geithner's opinion on this matter is irrelevant.
    Apr 26 10:18 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • "If it was a horse, I'd shoot it," once said a wise auto mechanic to a customer who brought his jalopy in for repair. A corporate turnaround manager might say the same about Greece, where the sheer level of debt is likely to overwhelm any effort to better balance fiscal matters.  [View news story]
    The problem is never Greece or a subprime CDO.

    Say Greece restructures in an orderly manner (somebody will have to book the losses, assume it is Germany). One year from now, someone rediscovers that Spain has not really cut expenses and their real estate problem is as big as ever (see my response to Tack above). At that time, some EU official will say that "Spain will not be allowed to fail" which is the SAME thing they said about Greece not too long ago.

    I do not know about you, but I would not want to hold any Spanish bonds in that scenario and there are plenty of them outside of Spain to go around. The total foreign debt is too large even for Germany.
    Apr 21 01:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • "If it was a horse, I'd shoot it," once said a wise auto mechanic to a customer who brought his jalopy in for repair. A corporate turnaround manager might say the same about Greece, where the sheer level of debt is likely to overwhelm any effort to better balance fiscal matters.  [View news story]
    I am sorry Tack, but you obviously have been following Spain though the eyes of the US brokerage houses. The "decoupling-theory" is based on nothing but half-truths. If you talk to the people there you will reach very different conclusions. Their real estate problem is sitting in the books marked at par waiting to solve itself in the next boom. The austerity programs announced by the government have yet to be implemented. In the meantime, their debt burden continues to grow and it is still financed by foreigners. In addition, the local governments, not only have not cut their expenses, but have discovered that they can borrow at will as the buyers think there is an implicit guarantee from the Kingdom.

    I have never said, by the way, that the world will end. Spain and Greece have defaulted many times without that happening.
    Apr 21 01:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apr. Philly Fed Business Outlook: 18.5 vs. 33 expected and 43.4 prior. New orders 18.8 vs. 40.3 prior. Shipments 29.1 vs. 34.9 prior. Unfilled orders 12.9 vs. 14.9 prior.  [View news story]
    Sure, but many won't have jobs or will not even have $100K to spare. Hyper inflation is much worse than it sounds.
    Apr 21 01:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • "If it was a horse, I'd shoot it," once said a wise auto mechanic to a customer who brought his jalopy in for repair. A corporate turnaround manager might say the same about Greece, where the sheer level of debt is likely to overwhelm any effort to better balance fiscal matters.  [View news story]
    Yes it does, because Greece is similar to Spain (lots of past growth and inflation financed by foreigners). Spain's foreign debt is 200% of GDP (including all sectors), their unemployment is 20% (in the 40s if you are under 30 years old), they have no export-oriented sector (other than tourism), and cannot devalue the currency to compete with foreign wages.

    Since the public was "assured" that Greece "was ok" and wouldn't be allowed "to fail" I don't see why anyone would believe what they are now saying about Spain and the others. The subprime problem was also 1% of US GDP.
    Apr 21 11:55 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • "If it was a horse, I'd shoot it," once said a wise auto mechanic to a customer who brought his jalopy in for repair. A corporate turnaround manager might say the same about Greece, where the sheer level of debt is likely to overwhelm any effort to better balance fiscal matters.  [View news story]
    Plug past articles day:
    seekingalpha.com/artic...
    Apr 21 10:59 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apr. Philly Fed Business Outlook: 18.5 vs. 33 expected and 43.4 prior. New orders 18.8 vs. 40.3 prior. Shipments 29.1 vs. 34.9 prior. Unfilled orders 12.9 vs. 14.9 prior.  [View news story]
    Unfortunately, those in a position to lead a "reinvention" process are quite happy with the status quo.
    Apr 21 10:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apr. Philly Fed Business Outlook: 18.5 vs. 33 expected and 43.4 prior. New orders 18.8 vs. 40.3 prior. Shipments 29.1 vs. 34.9 prior. Unfilled orders 12.9 vs. 14.9 prior.  [View news story]
    Housing prices are down and unemployment is marginally down from record levels. Not to mention that MANY are borrowing heavily to go to school, which may or may not pay off given the size of the debts they are taking.
    In that context "stocks are up" is of little importance to the majority of the population.
    Conclusions are free.
    Apr 21 10:52 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A new Gallup poll finds that Americans holding individual stocks, stock mutual funds, or stocks in their 401(k) or IRA falls to 54%, the lowest level since Gallup began regularly monitoring stock ownership in 1999. Real estate is viewed as the best long-term investment by 33% of respondents, vs. 24% for stocks, 24% for savings accounts/CDs, 12% for bonds.  [View news story]
    54%?

    That is still pretty high if one accounts for the low savings rate of the bottom 80%.
    Apr 21 10:47 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Though no longer on the front pages, yen repatriation remains an issue and it appears to be occurring in a big way. This graph from Sean Corrigan tells the story as does the steady rise in the yen's value during April.  FXY +0.7%.  [View news story]
    So what percentage of JPY volume is represented by securities?

    (Not that one would let facts get in the way of a Wall Street story)

    seekingalpha.com/artic...
    Apr 21 10:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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