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Harry Tuttle

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  • The markets are "overreacting" to the Japan disaster concerning its impact on U.S. economic growth, Deutsche Bank's Joe LaVorgna says. U.S. exports to Japan are only 5% of GDP, he says, so that number would have to be much larger for the events in Japan to have a substantial effect on the U.S. economy.  [View news story]
    "I love over reaction. "

    Is this the same guy who said that Bernanke saved his company? I bet you weren't loving over reaction then.

    Thank God for Bernanke! (sorry if you think I am being redundant).
    Mar 16 08:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ECB chief Trichet quickly dismisses as "insufficient" an agreement of EU finance ministers for new government spending rules. The weaknesses exposed by the debt crisis will not be “fully corrected ... by what is presently envisaged," says Trichet.  [View news story]
    Actually it is the same movie: "Groundhog Day"

    The interesting thing is that Trichet would actually speak his mind about the issue. He is long a LOT of Greek, Irish, and Portuguese debt.
    Mar 15 04:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Does the Earthquake Mean for Japan's Fiscal Future? [View article]
    "Japan has a sovereign currency, and therefore its government has always had the capacity to purchase anything and everything for sale in yen."

    This statement ignores that fiat currency needs to be accepted by those with goods. I suggest you take a look at Zimbabwe, which also has a sovererign currency. If you think those things only happen in Africa, you may want to look at Argentina before 1991 or Brazil before the Cardoso. If you still those things only happen in third world countries, I suggest you take a look at Weimar Germany. A well educated country, with a sovereign currency, and a lot of debt financed entirely (in the end) by a printing press.
    Mar 15 03:40 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The markets are "overreacting" to the Japan disaster concerning its impact on U.S. economic growth, Deutsche Bank's Joe LaVorgna says. U.S. exports to Japan are only 5% of GDP, he says, so that number would have to be much larger for the events in Japan to have a substantial effect on the U.S. economy.  [View news story]
    How does he know "the markets" are reacting to the tragedy in Japan? As I recall, the earthquake/tsunami happened on Friday and "the [allegedly efficient] markets" were up that day.

    Efficient market logic is like the horoscope, you see what you want to see.

    Good luck with that.
    Mar 15 03:29 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Miracle of Amazon's Soaring Revenues: Profits, Not So Much [View article]
    In my opinion, Jeff Bezos is a superb leader. Not only did he create this dominant company in a very difficult space from nothing, but he also did so by consistently ignored the advice from the sages in Wall Street (I can still remember Mary Meeker giving him a hard time about debt in 1999). If I remember correctly, he sold a chunk of stock at around $120. The buyers were mostly those using OPM.
    Unlike many "internet entrepreneurs" this guy does not run the company to please Wall St. analysts on a quarterly basis.
    Mar 15 11:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China becomes the first country to undertake a mass evacuation of its citizens from Northeast Japan over concerns about the Fukushima power plant. Separately, major international banks deny rumors of staff evacuation. "It's business as usual for us," says a JPMorgan spokesperson.  [View news story]
    I have no idea whether the radiation levels are dangerous. However, I know that I wouldn't ask JPM.
    Mar 15 11:15 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gauging the Markets: The Only Thing We Have to Fear Is Fear Itself [View article]
    "What is the best strategy for investors who already have hefty stock positions?"

    Sell into rallies as the market is up 100% from the lows and the recovery is priced in.

    If the market goes higher, the investor will still benefit, albeit from a "not as hefty position." However, if the market stumbles FOR ANY reason, they will keep at least some of their profits.

    Naturally, your adviser WILL NEVER say anything like this because he/she doesn't make money from your cash.
    Mar 15 11:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fed looks set to hold interest rates unchanged at 0.25% when the FOMC meets today against a backdrop of confusing economic signals and worldwide unease. The Japanese disaster and respective stimulus reaction offers the potential for an unexpected announcement.  [View news story]
    I agree.
    Mar 15 10:57 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • As a quickly called conference of energy ministers gets underway, a spokesperson says the EU is considering performing stress tests on all of its 143 nuclear facilities. Also to be discussed, Angela Merkel's decision to take 7 of Germany's nuclear plants offline.  [View news story]
    Let's hope these "stress tests" do not follow the banking model.

    ("Should we test for rain? No, that actually does happen, lets test for snow in Andalucia and 110F temperatures in Finland instead.")
    Mar 15 10:37 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fed looks set to hold interest rates unchanged at 0.25% when the FOMC meets today against a backdrop of confusing economic signals and worldwide unease. The Japanese disaster and respective stimulus reaction offers the potential for an unexpected announcement.  [View news story]
    Thus, they should come out and SAY that they consider the stock market as part of their mandate. Food and energy prices, on the other hand, they DO NOT.

    Honesty is the best policy.
    Mar 15 10:12 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Advice worth remembering on a big down day: "It rarely pays to sell into a panic." In perhaps the closest recent analogy, stocks bounced back from their initial plunge after 9/11, and the market's behavior was in line with historical precedent: In 19 of the 28 worst political or economic crises over the six decades prior to 9/11, the Dow was higher six months after the crisis began.  [View news story]
    Those who sold the Nikkei at the low in September 1990 did so after a 40% fall in 20 days (talk about panic). The level? 20,000. Today 8605.

    Those who panicked out of the S&P in October 2000 are still ahead today (not counting interest in 3-month t-bills).

    Advice worth remembering about market pundits: They do not risk their own money.
    Mar 15 10:10 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fed looks set to hold interest rates unchanged at 0.25% when the FOMC meets today against a backdrop of confusing economic signals and worldwide unease. The Japanese disaster and respective stimulus reaction offers the potential for an unexpected announcement.  [View news story]
    The Fed doesn't care about Japan anymore than they care about the poor American consumer paying higher food and energy prices.

    I could think of several reasons why raising rates could be helpful to Japan. In Macroeconomics, there is usually an argument to fit any desired conclusion. It is just a matter of which side one chooses to ignore.
    Mar 15 09:18 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stay tuned for Monday, BofA bears - the online activist group Anonymous says it, not WikiLeaks, has the smoking document cache that proves Bank of America (BAC) committed fraud, and that it will release the docs after the weekend.  [View news story]
    Best phrase ever!
    Mar 13 01:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stay tuned for Monday, BofA bears - the online activist group Anonymous says it, not WikiLeaks, has the smoking document cache that proves Bank of America (BAC) committed fraud, and that it will release the docs after the weekend.  [View news story]
    MG,

    We used to believe in Schumpeterian capitalism. The system that created car companies in the 30s, semiconductor companies in the 70/80s and internet companies in the 90s.

    Thanks to Greenspan and Rubin we have become Dow Jones Nation. A country of where bs rules in order to keep the masses borrowing and spending what they don't have.
    Mar 13 01:08 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stay tuned for Monday, BofA bears - the online activist group Anonymous says it, not WikiLeaks, has the smoking document cache that proves Bank of America (BAC) committed fraud, and that it will release the docs after the weekend.  [View news story]
    Proving that Bank of America committed fraud would be like proving that not every vote is counted in Florida (or elsewhere). It depends on your definition of "fraud" and "proving"

    The banks have much better lawyers than the government. Whenever the government gets a decent lawyer, the banks hire him/her away for triple pay.

    As we now know because of Lehman's bankruptcy, banking regulation has been useless for a long, long time. Why? simple, the regulators are too friendly to their future employers.
    Mar 12 11:25 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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