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  • Niska Gas Storage +3.5% as StreetAuthority offers bullish view [View news story]
    NKA seems like a great short to me. Need to do more research. But to start their 9% dividend is unsustainable. I dont know how the hell they're continuing to pay that out but soon they'll have to lower it.
    Apr 28 11:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chesapeake Energy beats by $0.10. [View news story]
    Great selling opportunity now that the Natural Gas market is down from $4.50/mmbtu to $3.40. They did hedge a good chunck of production and made money on it. But how will the future look like now that any future hedging will have to be at a 30% lower price
    Aug 1 09:09 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Own Gold [View article]
    Your article makes complete sense, but it also made sense when gold was at 1,900.
    So you need to better describe why would you be long gold here, as oppose to waiting to see if it moves even lower. At the end there's no instrinsic value of gold, as you can't compare it with anything else that provides a cash flow or has an industrial use.
    Jun 27 04:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks To Keep Moving Up Relative To Treasuries, But Only Relative [View article]
    An increase in the risk premium would mean stocks down and treasuries up (risk premium is the difference in yields between them). So far treasuries have been moving up (baring this last May) so stocks have been playing catch-up plus going up as the risk premium gets reduced.
    Crashes and corrections can have many causes, and yes both treasuries and s&p could go down on a mild correction. If it's bigger then everybody will expect fed to step in again and push yields down.
    May 31 11:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Safest Way To Play Rising Interest Rates [View article]
    You're wrong. Most of the decay is from the coupons, even if they buy the futures or do an index swap and don't have to pay for them. This is the most basic thing about futures.
    For example futures on S&P that expire in one year trade at something like a 2.5% discount to the current S&P index! Why? because you don't get the dividend yield (or coupon) from owning the stock.
    Same think if you have to short a future on 25 year treasuries. The futures or any swap to hedge the index will be done at a price 2.5% lower than the current price, bc of the coupon. So if nothing else happens, you will loose that 2.5% between now and the expiration.
    No matter what you do, you will loose that !! Basic finance principle (all this on a ~0% short-term interest world like we have now)
    May 29 09:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks are at session highs following the Consumer Confidence beat, the DJIA (DIA +1.4%) up 214 points. In addition to the bounce to 76.2 for the composite, the Present Situation Index rose to 66.7 from 61 and Expectations jumped to 82.4 from 74.3. The labor market outlook is more upbeat, with those expecting more jobs in coming months rising to 16.8% from 14.3%. Treasurys (TLT -1.2%) sell off, the 10-year yield touching a 2013 high of 2.08%. [View news story]
    The risk premium is probably still too high (stock earning yield vs treasuries). So so far stocks have been rallying to get that risk premium lowered, but from now on instead of stocks rallying more and more, the risk premium will be reduced by treasury yields decreasing instead (and Treasury bonds moving down in price as we saw today)
    May 29 09:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chesapeake Energy: A Wise Bet On The Popularity Of Natural Gas Vehicles [View article]
    CHK is one of the worst stocks to bet on anything. Even if you bet on a rebound in Natural Gas, or strong liquids there are a lot better stocks.

    I you want to bet on Natural Gas Vehicles, this is NOT the stock to buy at all. You would buy CLNE, WPRT, or FSYS. Get your facts right, overhyped stock for sure.
    Apr 4 08:50 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment