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Hedgephone  

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  • Auto Loan Debt Off The Charts - Time To Short Credit Acceptance? [View article]
    Thanks for your comments. I agree that shorting anything right now is a recipe for sleepless nights, but sooner or later it could pay off. Trees don't grow to the sky and stocks don't go up forever.

    In any event, I can't get a borrow, so this one might be a play I have to watch from the sidelines...
    Mar 2, 2015. 01:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Sell Visa [View article]
    It's been low stress to invest that way over the past few years, which is why personally I would be somewhat stressed out about it now. Nothing goes up forever, and stocks (like trees) don't grow into outer space.

    Nice comment and thanks for your opinions. I closed a tiny VNQ short position for a small gain (RSI getting oversold here) but I def. think REITs are riskier than a KO, JNJ, MCD basket. HAVE SOME QQQ PUTS THAT ARE UNDERWATER... TOO EARLY

    Thanks for all of the comments!!! Having a blast.
    Mar 1, 2015. 03:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Sell Visa [View article]
    not knocking you! Good luck
    Mar 1, 2015. 03:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Sell Visa [View article]
    Hi Misho,

    Appreciate your thoughts.

    I am not a perma-bear I am a just value guy who helps friends and fam. I've made mistakes, but not the ones you are inferring. We tripled up since the bottom like everyone else, but now have too much exposure. It's time to take profits and hold cash reserves -- I am a long term investor but I don't simply use "hope" to invest in overvalued markets with tremendous risks. Read David Stockman -- he was Reagan's economic advisor and calls this "the scariest moment in history." I was a raging bull when blood was in the streets in early 2009. We used cash we raised in 2007 and 2008 (sold newspapers, AIG, Freddie, Fannie, Bear, etc.. summer of 2008) to buy more stock in 2009.

    I wanted people to borrow and buy stocks back then when stocks traded close to 10X earnings -- it was an opportunity to buy dollars for fifty cents. Today I feel the opposite. Time to sell. Using the CAPE actually works pretty well. You can't time the markets but you MUST rebalance your portfolio and be mindful of valuation.

    I know my place, and know I am nothing compared to even the average baller, but I am awake.

    I am not a perms-bear, but this market is not without major risks that lead me to conclude now is the time to hold a 50/50 or lighter allocation to equities. DRY POWDER. That's all.

    There will be a time to buy stocks when the AAII sentiment is 87% negative and not 87% positive.
    Mar 1, 2015. 03:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Sell Visa [View article]
    No, it makes absolutely no difference how many shares you own because of a stock split -- sure it appeals to retail, but doesn't somehow pay you free money. There were tons of splits in 1999 too!

    Better shorts exist than V I have nearly been talked out of my thesis by you guys but there is a lot of froth today ... IBB is up too much, TSLA, WDAY, LNKD, CRM, BXP, MDY, QQQ are all interesting candidates.

    QE is over.
    Feb 28, 2015. 08:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Sell Visa [View article]
    I'm no Phil Fisher... but he probably said that during a different time in American history when we didn't have as many demographic, wealth inequality, deficit, debt, macro, citizens united, corruption and fraud problems in the US...

    Read Minsky -- We are in the ponzi phase.
    Feb 28, 2015. 08:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Sell Visa [View article]
    Note: I like AXP better because it is much cheaper (half price) than V and Buffett is long and strong in the name, a top four holding for Berkshire.
    Feb 28, 2015. 06:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Sell Visa [View article]
    Agreed. Visa is likely less risky than the issuers of the debt V is the "Nike swoosh of money" it's just up a lot. If I owned it I would buy puts and sell calls. But hey WTFDIK?
    Feb 28, 2015. 06:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Sell Visa [View article]
    Good points. I am not going to argue with any of them except to say that the S&P is trading for a 50% discount to Visa on a price earnings basis and an incredible discount to Visa based on price to sales.

    Of course, Visa's moat is wide and they have incredible brand value. The regulatory environment can reverse some of that value however. Just look at the Discover lawsuit to see what I mean.

    Bubbles always look safe at or near the top. The economy sucks but the stock market is awesome... One of those two things will change to meet the other.
    Feb 28, 2015. 04:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Sell Visa [View article]
    What you are not considering is that this is a moment in history where risks are more heightened and pervasive than ever before. In hindsight, Visa looks like a no brainer. Just don't invest using the rear-view mirror. That's really my point. We live in a world with unprecedented risk. The 10K disclosure highlights those risks. These events are happening everywhere.
    Feb 28, 2015. 04:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Sell Visa [View article]
    Hello Mark,

    For the same reason that Visa's risk disclosure statement includes defaults as a risk. If people don't pay back their credit card debt, there will be a collapse in the economy. At which point you want cash not stock.

    Not saying that's what is going to happen, but that this COULD happen. IF people use debt to buy silver coins and bury them in the yard and then declare bankruptcy it's bad for all financial institutions including Visa.

    Again, I'm writing about risks. Why look a gift horse in the mouth? Who will be the buyer of last resort when the buyback ends, etc.. etc...

    This might be perfectly "safe" but you never know. If Visa (or any stock) was a sure thing at 30X then we would be living in a fascist reality. I don't think the banks have as much control over the risks as most do -- 87% of readers are bullish. That alone is a contrarian indicator that risk here is real.

    IF everyone is already long and bullish, who will buy your shares at a higher stock price? Okay, yes, possibly Janet Yellin, but that is another story.
    Feb 28, 2015. 03:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Sell Visa [View article]
    Making no "call" -- this is an article about valuation. If the market sells off, the stocks that rose the most in the shortest time period usually fall faster than the overall market. I am looking at the potential for a trade if that correction EVER happens... Sadly, it may not... In that case, think of the poor who own no stocks and never will....

    Orwellian reality in which we live.
    Feb 28, 2015. 03:01 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Sell Visa [View article]
    This article gives no advice, and nothing I say on SA gives advice... I write articles to initiate debate, discussion, and critical thinking. It's fun.
    Feb 28, 2015. 02:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Sell Visa [View article]
    I agree with your sentiments exactly, and mentioned twice in the article that they aren't lending the money to the customer. Thanks for all of the comments!

    I am also not a big fan of the whole cashless society... too 1984 for me...
    Feb 28, 2015. 02:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Sell Visa [View article]
    Good comment MKW. I agree with your points yet again. Why not buy and hold with insurance?
    Feb 28, 2015. 02:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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