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  • The LinkedIn Bubble [View article]
    jobs board.
    Mar 6, 2015. 06:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead, Mylan, And J&J: Cheap Compared To Peers [View article]
    Thanks Jstratt!

    I appreciate the additional information on GILD's revenue. I also like the stock much more than any of the others I have researched, and have actually written about it as a long candidate for a few years. Agree also about the PE's of the traditional pharma stocks -- generics could end up putting a big dent in those over time, and the current multiples seem steep.

    Appreciate your comment, and wish you much success
    Mar 6, 2015. 05:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Sell Visa [View article]
    I agree the company will grow shareholder value over the next ten years. I just think the baseline for what those shares are worth today has a 1 handle in front of it. That's sort of how I feel about stocks in general right now. Sure companies will make money, but this is a bubble and stocks need a 30% haircut to reflect reality.

    It's just a greed issue for me. Why buy this here? Not shorting it but it makes more sense to me than to own 30 plus PE stocks when historically that has been a suckers game countless times -- 1929 being a good example. It looks like a recession is coming, hopefully a brief one.

    Glad Yellen mentioned "regulatory capture" but I doubt she is going to do anything about it after 40 years of it at the Fed.
    Mar 4, 2015. 05:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Sell Visa [View article]
    I agree... That's why I own land with water, built a cabin and am buying dips in gold and silver.

    Thanks movies555 for your comment.

    Check out GDXJ... Also, lumber stocks tend to do well in depressions, which is what I am hinting at -- the massive regulatory capture and the scope of the derivative and debt issues simply weren't addressed. Wall Street got drunk, then got the hair of the dog to keep partying. What we needed was sobriety.

    I am afraid we never got cured of the disease, we just papered over the real problem with a dead cat bounce over the past few years.

    That's my opinion, and while I believe Visa's operating business will do fine, I think the stock is overvalued and at risk.

    Breaking up banks would be a great start, but will not be allowed. Also, we need to stop borrowing money to pay for the current level of defense and also entitlements if we want to ever make it out of the mess we are in today. It seems rather unlikely. Hence my bearishness. I hope I am wrong, but for me a 50/50 allocation to stocks and cash (with 10% in gold) seems to be the right mix given all of the problems we face.

    With Nirp, I think Americans would start buying gold like crazy and moving away from banking altogether. It could actually hurt investment more than help as people go "unbanked" -- the bankers got spoiled.
    I also hope I am wrong because my family is still long.

    Me personally for my tiny fund, I am short. It will be a phyric victory if my gut is right.
    Mar 4, 2015. 05:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver Is A Long-Term Buy: Here's Why [View article]
    excellent comments here. Thanks for reading. Wishing everyone a profitable 2015 onward.
    Mar 3, 2015. 03:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Sell Visa [View article]
    Good for you guys. I'm really not invested in the name and therefore don't really need to argue a case (I'm not a lawyer). If I owned Visa, I would buy a put as insurance. If I had new cash to invest I would wait for better bargains and be thankful for the capital I have, not worried about missing the boat.
    Mar 2, 2015. 05:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • John Hussman: Plan To Exit Stocks Within The Next 8 Years? Exit Now [View article]
    Note to all of the bashers... The guy still manages a ton of money and it's not because his investors are idiots. They are grateful for the money they have and not infected with insatiable greed over the returns touted by folks with vested interests long the market -- they aren't concerned with keeping up with the Jones's.

    My old boss pointed me toward Dr. Hussman in the early 2000's as a guy to watch. Knew him when he was at Prudential. Said he was a little bit too conservative (but a genius who got it), but guess what that's actually what I would want in TODAY's market. The rearview mirror means absolutely nothing. What happens over the next 3 years is what counts for investors using new cash.

    Sure, the guy hasn't done that well recently, but he has crushed some other bears like BEARX, etc... and he is still in business. I think people on these MB's are player hating just a tad... This guy actually makes me want to go back to school for an econometrics MA. At least he isn't another pumptard.
    Mar 2, 2015. 05:38 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Auto Loan Debt Off The Charts - Time To Short Credit Acceptance? [View article]
    Thanks for your comments. I agree that shorting anything right now is a recipe for sleepless nights, but sooner or later it could pay off. Trees don't grow to the sky and stocks don't go up forever.

    In any event, I can't get a borrow, so this one might be a play I have to watch from the sidelines...
    Mar 2, 2015. 01:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Sell Visa [View article]
    It's been low stress to invest that way over the past few years, which is why personally I would be somewhat stressed out about it now. Nothing goes up forever, and stocks (like trees) don't grow into outer space.

    Nice comment and thanks for your opinions. I closed a tiny VNQ short position for a small gain (RSI getting oversold here) but I def. think REITs are riskier than a KO, JNJ, MCD basket. HAVE SOME QQQ PUTS THAT ARE UNDERWATER... TOO EARLY

    Thanks for all of the comments!!! Having a blast.
    Mar 1, 2015. 03:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Sell Visa [View article]
    not knocking you! Good luck
    Mar 1, 2015. 03:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Sell Visa [View article]
    Hi Misho,

    Appreciate your thoughts.

    I am not a perma-bear I am a just value guy who helps friends and fam. I've made mistakes, but not the ones you are inferring. We tripled up since the bottom like everyone else, but now have too much exposure. It's time to take profits and hold cash reserves -- I am a long term investor but I don't simply use "hope" to invest in overvalued markets with tremendous risks. Read David Stockman -- he was Reagan's economic advisor and calls this "the scariest moment in history." I was a raging bull when blood was in the streets in early 2009. We used cash we raised in 2007 and 2008 (sold newspapers, AIG, Freddie, Fannie, Bear, etc.. summer of 2008) to buy more stock in 2009.

    I wanted people to borrow and buy stocks back then when stocks traded close to 10X earnings -- it was an opportunity to buy dollars for fifty cents. Today I feel the opposite. Time to sell. Using the CAPE actually works pretty well. You can't time the markets but you MUST rebalance your portfolio and be mindful of valuation.

    I know my place, and know I am nothing compared to even the average baller, but I am awake.

    I am not a perms-bear, but this market is not without major risks that lead me to conclude now is the time to hold a 50/50 or lighter allocation to equities. DRY POWDER. That's all.

    There will be a time to buy stocks when the AAII sentiment is 87% negative and not 87% positive.
    Mar 1, 2015. 03:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Sell Visa [View article]
    No, it makes absolutely no difference how many shares you own because of a stock split -- sure it appeals to retail, but doesn't somehow pay you free money. There were tons of splits in 1999 too!

    Better shorts exist than V I have nearly been talked out of my thesis by you guys but there is a lot of froth today ... IBB is up too much, TSLA, WDAY, LNKD, CRM, BXP, MDY, QQQ are all interesting candidates.

    QE is over.
    Feb 28, 2015. 08:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Sell Visa [View article]
    I'm no Phil Fisher... but he probably said that during a different time in American history when we didn't have as many demographic, wealth inequality, deficit, debt, macro, citizens united, corruption and fraud problems in the US...

    Read Minsky -- We are in the ponzi phase.
    Feb 28, 2015. 08:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Sell Visa [View article]
    Note: I like AXP better because it is much cheaper (half price) than V and Buffett is long and strong in the name, a top four holding for Berkshire.
    Feb 28, 2015. 06:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Sell Visa [View article]
    Agreed. Visa is likely less risky than the issuers of the debt V is the "Nike swoosh of money" it's just up a lot. If I owned it I would buy puts and sell calls. But hey WTFDIK?
    Feb 28, 2015. 06:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment