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  • Time To Sell Visa [View article]
    If you owned it from the IPO you can't sell it ever... I agree... tax consequences plus you have a ton of room if things go down. This article is about how to make money on a much shorter time frame with new capital or what you would do if you have just made a 10% return in a few weeks in your IRA -- in that case you should certainly lock in a profit.

    What you don't do is buy a stock up 300% and turn a trade into an investment when things go south.

    Have long term longs here ever considered option collar positions? You could buy a $270 Jan. 2016 put and sell a March 2015 $280 call option, still collect dividends, still make money when the stock rises, but you won't give back anything if the S&P gaps down next week, next month, next year, etc...

    Anyway, I admire long term investor in the name... not hating on you! I just want to make money today.
    Feb 28, 2015. 12:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Sell Visa [View article]
    You're probably right. Not knocking you longs. I got a kick out of their 10 K risk disclosure statement and found it entertaining... It's also not that cheap here considering the Discover lawsuit, anti-trust stuff, etc...

    Over thirty years it will go up. Over the next 30 days or 30 weeks, it will likely go down when the market goes down and could underperform. There is some Beta risk.

    Maybe folks should marry their girlfriends and not their investments.

    I wouldn't write these if I didn't enjoy all of the abuse!
    Feb 28, 2015. 12:17 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Sell Visa [View article]
    Most of the article is taken from the 10K... I like to buy when there is blood in the streets and not when a parade of pumping articles is constantly touting stocks that went up the most over the past three years... It gets old. Tried being bold and going out on a limb, but guess what that's what stop loss orders are for! It takes two sides to make a market.
    Feb 27, 2015. 11:42 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Sell Visa [View article]
    I like McDonalds and Johnson and Johnson better than Visa -- they are boring stalwarts, are somewhat reasonably valued, and have not risen 300% over the past few years... At some point taking profits off of the table makes sense.

    If I were to put NEW capital to work, however, I would buy MCD and JNJ with a married put option. You never know how long it will take to get your money back if the stock market drops 40% or so to find fair value based on historical cyclically adjusted PE multiples. Shiller, Greenspan, Odey, etc... etc... are becoming risk averse now. Doesn't anyone remember 2008 or 2000?

    There is risk in the system, and of course buy and hold works over long periods of time, but the question is why buy high (at high valuations) and sell low when you can pick up some cheap insurance given today's record low VIX and have some dry powder when and if stocks ever become cheap again?

    Playing it safe is never a bad trade. Thanks for all of your comments! Even the guy who said this was "the dumbest article ever" it really made me smile....
    Feb 27, 2015. 11:35 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Offense Is Dead: 5 Shorts For Defensive Investors [View article]
    Long silver, rural land with water, and short QQQ.... that's my long term call and I'm standing by it. Mainly just short qqq.
    Feb 27, 2015. 02:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Offense Is Dead: 5 Shorts For Defensive Investors [View article]
    I like silver because governments and bankers are still turning to currency wars as a means of managing the economy.

    Silver is down around 60% from its peak, and you can't just print silver. Sure, all of these arguments were there before the crash, but in the end we have a sovereign debt problem that won't go away. If they ever outlaw gold again, they probably won't touch silver and silver is widely used in the technology gadget market.

    Anyway, I like buying when there is blood in the streets. I agree that deflationary pressures exist but I think over 10 years silver will be higher than it is today (the dollar has lost 96% of its value since the Fed was created) and cash will not be a great store of value over that period of time.

    Also, I fundamentally distrust the banking system after the repeal of Glass Steagall so for me it puts me in control over my own wealth.

    Anyway, buy low and sell high right? Everyone hates it, so it probably makes sense whereas everyone loves stocks so it is probably time to sell...

    Could be wrong, but I don't want to buy a stock bubble and sell it higher. I want to buy washouts, and silver fits the bill...

    Would you open a new silver mine? Me neither. That's why it's likely going to find a floor whereas no matter how much they game the stock market the companies eventually have to earn a profit for investors to maintain their principle.
    Feb 27, 2015. 01:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold: The Good, Bad And Truly Ugly [View article]
    Now there's a platform I can trust and will vote for! How about MKW for president and a Niall Ferguson type for VP?
    Feb 26, 2015. 06:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Valuations Based On CAPE - A Deeper Dive [View article]
    what about foreign stocks that aren't expensive? RSX at 5X, EWU at 14X, VNM at 10X, TUR at 10X, etc...

    The TINA thing is discounting the fact that Americans aren't in a vacuum. There are many places around the world to invest besides just the S&P 500... Good article, but speculating on something dear because you can't find investments is not a good enough reason for the big money to buy all time highs at all time high valuations.
    Feb 26, 2015. 07:58 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The SPDR S&P MidCap 400 ETF: Let's Analyze It Using Our Scorecard System [View article]
    This was an awesome article. I sent it to my mom and my uncle. Now they have no excuse to believe the "no alternative" snake oil.
    Feb 26, 2015. 07:31 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Offense Is Dead: 5 Shorts For Defensive Investors [View article]
    nothing wrong with making money as long as it's not the only thing in life, and as long as you get out of this deal before it's too late... buying silver here myself.
    Feb 26, 2015. 07:13 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Ride The Silver Bull With SIVR In The Money Call Options [View article]
    Got stopped out at $30... glad I didn't buy the fund or the physical because today at $16.70 I am nibbling again and considering buying with both fists... tell me why it's a falling knife? thanks readers!
    Feb 26, 2015. 07:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Assets Of All Kinds Are Dangerously Overvalued [View article]
    It's the most dogmatic, recency biased, self-congratulating, fact-less, moronic bull market in history. It's as if speculators can only remember what happened five minutes ago and not five years ago...

    Short the QQQ with puts... Lever up when the party ends... I also like some foreign ETF's and the metals... soooooooooooooo hated... while LNKD and Salesforce are a religion
    Feb 26, 2015. 05:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Earnings Narrative Doesn't Match The Facts [View article]
    This was a very well written article containing a well thought out and researched argument. Stocks seem riskier to me now than in 2007 based on slowing growth, nosebleed valuations, and record high profit margins. Nice work
    Feb 26, 2015. 04:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Offense Is Dead: 5 Shorts For Defensive Investors [View article]
    I wholeheartedly agree TK, and yes there are some great comments here. Just remember that the digital printing goes to the banks first (where they use it to HFT ALGO/game/goose the futures) and has to be lent to the real economy to get any real growth or inflation. Euro QE may go into the EWU or euro area stocks instead of the S&P, but yes the most printing in history is going on this year worldwide just not in the US. Remember, demographics are deflationary in developed nations and that will keep bond vigilantes and hopefully inflation (hyper or otherwise) at bay even with seemingly irresponsible CB and deficit spending policies.. valuations may win out if profit margins ever revert to a 7-8% "new" mean... At 10% we have some room to move lower, but believe me when I say I want the Dow and S&P to stay afloat but my wanting it won't make it so. I just don't have any skin in the tech space so I can't cheerlead like everyone else. They look pricey regardless of easy money Excalibur. I am WAAAAAAY more David than Goliath though @MK wish I was young too!
    Feb 26, 2015. 12:32 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Offense Is Dead: 5 Shorts For Defensive Investors [View article]
    @ MK...May the force be with you young Skywalker....
    Feb 25, 2015. 07:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment