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Hedgephone

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  • Intel: A Good Value Investment? [View article]
    Fantastic article. I have a 1% position in INTC and have sold April $19 calls against the position. An investor selling the april $19 calls against Intel adds an additional 7.44% margin of safety and this premium is collected nearly twice per year. So, on an annualized basis the covered call would yield nearly 12.6% in theory which is right around the margin of safety implied in the article. The maximum gain, however, is capped at 8.45% between now and April plus any additional gains made from dividends. I find this method to have less upside but more flexibility when economic uncertainty and macro headwinds exist in the overall markets. So because you only risk $17.4 with the added call premium as insurance, the maximum return on your risk is actually 10.94% or nearly 20.3% annualized were INTC to stay at $18.81 from now until September of next year.

    Good stock.
    Sep 19 04:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Salesforce.com: A Good Short at Its Current Valuation [View article]
    The fact that many of the insiders recently dumped all of their shares in the stock (Graham and Frank Vanderwheel or whatever) is a huge red flag... I can't see how this stock will not be a giant program sell now that the PSAR has rolled over into the red, MACD has made a topping pattern with %K at 63 and %D at 67 (crossover recently) and the histogram made a lower high on the last upmove.... Additionally we just moved below the 10 day moving average and the RSI at 62 is falling after making a lower high on the last move up. Volume is drying up and as David has mentioned, the S&P 500 is now directly below major resistance after many, many failed attempts to break higher.

    There is nothing "obvious" about shorting CRM its been the most favored and touted investment on Wall Street all year, is up from $22 per share in 2008 to $116 per share on no earnings growth and increasing competition and attrition rates. Sure, cloud computing will be important but there is no reason to assume that CRM will be leading the space ten years from now -- If thats the assumption made by Wall Street momo traders, why is the management unloading MOST of their shares in the business?

    This is by no means "obvious" and nobody, and I mean nobody I talk to agrees with my premise besides three or four substantially more successfull investors than myself on this website and a few bright sellers on yahoo finance... Other than that, there are millions upon millions of people sipping the mad money koolaid and good for them they have made a fortune here... I'm just betting that at some point people take profits and that tulip bubbles, although they can keep rising, burst at somepoint...

    "Trees don't grow to the sky, and stocks don't rise forever."
    Sep 18 04:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • WDC: An end to carnage and a reprieve to the HDD industry [View instapost]
    haha... nope I put my full name w middle name in the article submission (i take everything too literally) for my first SA article and they changed my name to my full name on my profile... not famous, but enjoy investing. I think this will be a fantastic trade. Nick Levis
    Sep 17 02:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Salesforce.com: A Good Short at Its Current Valuation [View article]
    Actually its the insider selling that led me to the short as well. Graham Smith Frank Van .. etc... these guys sold a majority of their stock options recently -- if this were Microsoft at $2 a share in 1983 I doubt all the insider selling would be taking place.. rgds. shrt crm
    Sep 17 11:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Window Is Closing for the Bears [View article]
    Actually this year mondays gapped up and fridays were lower... which king of makes me think that if we are in another crises then we will be lower than these levels by a wide margin on monday, similar to the September mondays of 2008 -- However the battle is just beggining and CNBC, Geithner, Bernanke, and Buffett all have had some success with the pumping through a resistance level... However, none of these moves have ever worked longer term... Makes me feel the trading range is overblown and that either way the bulls only have 10% upside regadless, and setting up for a nasty battle with 1220 with a very expensive market of stocks... I know most only follow the price or growth or chart, but for some investors the "screaming bargains" while cheap have opportunity costs -- IBM will not outperform corn and soybeans if we keep debasing the currency... So it remains to be seen -- One thing is certain -- the bulls need 1131 closing or its all over on Monday.
    Sep 16 11:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Initial Jobless Claims: -3K to 450K vs. +9K consensus. Continuing claims -84K to 4,485,000.  [View news story]
    The people have spoken. lol
    Sep 16 09:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Initial Jobless Claims: -3K to 450K vs. +9K consensus. Continuing claims -84K to 4,485,000.  [View news story]
    Wow... how is the death of the labor market bullish... If I said that stocks are overvalued by 50% not 55% somehow that is bullish? You guys need to stop focusing on the 3,000 people and focus on the other 450,000 real human beings that lost their jobs. This will lead to overall higher unemployment -- and government cant fix the government created debt problems -- any corporation run like this would get new management. Obama is fine, but Timmay and Uncle Ben need to become ski instructors or something... this is a joke.
    Sep 16 08:48 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Most Profitable Trade in History [View article]
    Steven,

    This is an awesome Article... Have to really tune out all the BS and focus on facts to trade or invest in this market... All is not hunky dorey as they would want you to believe.

    All the best,

    Nick Levis
    Sep 16 03:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stealth Stagflation? [View article]
    Likwise OT... to you as well....
    Sep 16 01:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Slim Pickings for Liquid, Growing, Yielding Stocks in Up Trend [View article]
    hola OT... a lot of the higher yields aren't getting their balance sheets in order as well. Some like PBI look kind of cheap until you kick the tires on a EV to cash flow basis -- rising debts not book values. Long a tiny bit of PBI
    Sep 16 01:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • WDC: An end to carnage and a reprieve to the HDD industry [View instapost]
    nice picks... long wdc short crm
    Sep 15 05:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stealth Stagflation? [View article]
    gotta give credit where credit is due... having a fun week by sticking to the stagflation theme, DBA SLV some good shorts here, etc... thanks for the topic OT and the discussion is constructive for making $$$
    Sep 14 04:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Inflation? What Inflation? [View article]
    Im in the stagflation camp long and short in stocks and long out the wassooo farmland and commodities! Having fun making money the whole time I listen to the Japan speak
    Sep 14 12:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Last month's budget deficit came in at $90.5B, the U.S. Treasury says, less than expected and smaller than the year-ago gap. But Zero Hedge points out that the comparable increase in debt was $212B, vs. $143.6B a year ago, and that the U.S. continues to issue 50% more debt than needed to merely fund its deficit.  [View news story]
    cheers... the tape is horrible... we have so many technical reasons to go short here... 200 day is about all the bulls can get a toehold on... as far as valuations go, people actually think the economy will GROW at 5-6% going forward, what I see is flat to zero to negative growth... which would obv. make netflix and crm look all that more expensive -- also amazon is nosebleed again as well... good luck and if you short keep your stops very tight...
    Sep 14 06:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Last month's budget deficit came in at $90.5B, the U.S. Treasury says, less than expected and smaller than the year-ago gap. But Zero Hedge points out that the comparable increase in debt was $212B, vs. $143.6B a year ago, and that the U.S. continues to issue 50% more debt than needed to merely fund its deficit.  [View news story]
    DMA -- Good stuff, I misread your post... you aren't saying anything I disagree with.... We all need to go back to Hussman and the guys who got this right and continue to read up... The markets are not very cheap yet everyone's bullish and they are SWEARING that the market MUST rise.... Shiller agrees that on a CAPE basis stocks are no bargain here. If you do your DD you will see Buffett's two previous stocks are cheap calls were followed by enormous losses... Now is not the time to be long... hedged or half in bonds or cash.... look at Fairholme.... True, you can't "time" the markets, but you should also not blindly buy overvalued names because their is nothing else to do with your money.... there are some fantastic shorts out there... CRM and NFLX on my list... and I'm liking these bloody red futures -- value investing on the short side is more fun for me and I think that's what Livermore enjoyed most of all... Its a quicker game and its much more contrarian... anyways, good post and hope you beat the benchmark -- whether that is your total capital now or the S&P -- mine is being the best in the game... which is unnatainable, but oh well, that's what keeps me at my desk 24/7 working on value investing.

    Just my opinions.... If you buy farmland today, I assure you that you will crush the DOW... AND ILL BET 10K on it..... takers?
    Sep 14 05:48 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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