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  • Intel: Don't Believe Bloomberg's Google Rumor [View article]
    Nice article and pretty quick response. You have put forward some strong arguments to quash the Bloomberg article. I am thinking that everyone is right to a certain degree but perhaps for the wrong reasons.

    Sometimes it may appear that an entity is considering options A, B and C but never have the intention of exercising B and C. For Intel, considering Power and ARM and spending a few million to explore the two options is a very good strategic move. After all, it certainly does not hurt when it comes to pricing or perhaps other considerations from Intel.

    Disclosure: I hold stock in three main companies, GOOG, INTC and AAPL (plus a minor short in AMZN and long in some Chinese solars). In 2012, I held GOOG six times to one of AAPL, today I hold more AAPL than GOOG. I don't like Apple products but I admire the company's ability to extract maximum dollars from customers - terrible but admirable. One day, maybe 2015, I am hoping my holdings of Intel will be larger than Apple and Google.
    Dec 12, 2013. 07:58 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Solar Winners And Losers For The Upcoming Q4 Earnings Season [View article]
    Updates to the Q4 Estimates:

    To date, the numbers put forward have been pretty grim. Even worse is the picture painted for the next few quarters. Right now it appears that all of the solars will lose money for Q1 and possibly for Q2. It appears that some of the full year losses might be much worse than the current Street estimates.

    For the final seven solars, updated numbers are posted below.

    Our Q4 Estimates Versus the Street Estimates

    Stock Our Estimates Street Estimates


    CSUN -0.63 -1.20
    DQ -0.20 -0.06
    HSOL - 0.32 -0.28
    JASO -0.18 -0.15
    LDK -0.46 -0.67
    SOL -0.17 -0.26

    Depending upon how SOL reports, I might adjust the LDK number. My most likely and worst case for LDK actually have a very large variation right now.
    Mar 14, 2012. 12:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Dramatic Declines In The Cost Of Production For Solars [View article]
    In spite of the debt, I still like LDK. If they can transform themselves to a true poly to module company, they will be unbeatable. This was supposed to have happened this year but they were unable to execute on the module side.

    To date, SOL has failed to fill out the missing parts (cell and modules).

    Although very preliminary, if LDK can execute (a big if) and if module ASPs average $1, then it is possible that LDK could make over a buck next year.
    Nov 30, 2011. 01:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Dramatic Declines In The Cost Of Production For Solars [View article]
    Agree that they have an enviable gross margin at this time. I admire the FSLR approach to production. As an outsider, they appear to be a pretty impressive company.

    My personal concerns with FSLR center around the use of cadmium. On a US government list of most toxic materials, cadmium is number six.
    Nov 29, 2011. 11:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Street's Track Record For Q3 Chinese Solar Estimates [View article]
    Whether individual solars or TAN, both are highly volatile. TAN is down about 66% from the highs of this year. Yes, many individual solar stocks are down even more but still, 66% would be eye-popping for most investors.

    TAN makes sense for a risk-taker who does not have time for analysis of individual stocks. With the wild swings, solars including TAN are not really suitable for a lot of investors (especially the novice investor).
    Nov 26, 2011. 01:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Street's Track Record For Q3 Chinese Solar Estimates [View article]
    More,

    Assume that you are referring to LDK? In the case of LDK, they will most likely remain in business. Will refer to a previous response:

    About 18 months ago, I was hoping LDK might go out of business so that companies like TSL could swoop in and pick up the choices pieces. Then the realization that LDK could transform itself into a major powerhouse of end to end production (for 2011). Unfortunately, that did not happen.

    Even if LDK went out of business, the company will continue. After all, like STP, they employ over 20,000 people. If they failed, the losers would be the shareholders. The debt-holders might take an interesting haircut. It could come out of the bankruptcy very lean and ready to compete at ultra low prices. Unfortunately, we would not share in the future riches of this company.

    On the positive side, I have them at $1.70 EPS for 2012 but that estimate is totally dependent on them becoming a major force in module sales.

    If you meant JKS, I don't see too much danger for them at this time as they remain one of the lowest cost producers. by the end of next year (assuming $25 poly), they should be at 76 cents all-in. Plus to conserve on cash, they have reduced capacity expansion for this year.

    In the ideal world, it would be nice to see them merge with DQ. It makes no financial sense right now but strategically, it would make them into a powerhouse of an end to end producer taking profits from every segment of the four verticals.
    Nov 25, 2011. 02:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Street's Track Record For Q3 Chinese Solar Estimates [View article]
    Perk,

    Unfortunately no one knows when solars will bottom. Right now it appears that 9 of the 11 solars will post losses for Q4. However, only four or five will post declining Q over Q earnings.

    Although we have had a nice run up this week, many of the solars remain precariously close to 52 week lows.

    It is possible that we have already hit bottom (a month ago) when I discussed an important inflection point for solars.

    http://bit.ly/v1Pypb

    Unfortunately in the surreal world of solars, nothing is certain.
    Nov 25, 2011. 10:48 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • This Week's Solar Earnings: Expecting Poor Q3 Results, Even Worse Q4 Outlooks [View article]
    more,

    It appears that the remaining longs are pretty battle-hardened. When it looked bad this morning, they kept their ground till they ground out a victory today. Although five of the solars actually hit 52 week lows (or were within two cents of the lows), today pretty well provided some relief for long suffering longs.

    If I faced with that perfect storm again, I would still sell out ahead of the week. The reason is that once the greens started to show, one could still restore an original position close to prices of the past two weeks.

    I very much enjoyed thinking through the week. This becomes chess at it's best. And we should keep in mind that we still have three more days left. Yesterday the bears may have won a knight. Today the bulls seem to have won a queen. By Friday, it still could end up a draw between bulls and bears.

    In the longer term over the next few quarters, the numbers appear to be pretty ugly. Although I added a bit to my JKS position, I am wondering if that was a very good idea in the face of such poor fundamentals for Q4 and Q1.
    Nov 22, 2011. 06:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Week's Solar Earnings: Expecting Poor Q3 Results, Even Worse Q4 Outlooks [View article]
    Monday Morning

    This morning's price action is pretty grim (without any news flow). CSUN has just hit a new 52 week low. There are about four others within a few pennies of a 52 week low. The rest are within striking distance of new 52 week lows.

    Yes the overall market is down but solars are down by a percentage muliple of three to four times more this morning.

    After the markets, our star, JKS will report. Most likely they will crush the Street estimates. Unfortunately Q3 will not count as the total focus will be on Q4. If they guide module ASP to $1 or less, they may post a loss for Q4. This is in contrast to a Q4 Street estimate of a 39 cent profit. If CSUN is forecasting a 91 cent ASP, then I would think that the others will guide sub $1 module ASPs.

    If sub $1 is confirmed, then there is a high likelihood of all eleven solars hitting new 52 week lows either after-hours tonight or tomorrow.
    Nov 21, 2011. 10:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Week's Solar Earnings: Expecting Poor Q3 Results, Even Worse Q4 Outlooks [View article]
    On a more positive note, I have completed a rough take-off of demand for 2012 based on the IMS Research numbers:

    The solar demand has continued to grow.

    2010 17 GW
    2011 24 GW (IMS Research estimate)
    2012 35 GW (my estimate)

    A detailed table by country is available at http://bit.ly/sBvfvX.
    Nov 20, 2011. 11:39 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Solar Winners And Losers For The Upcoming Q3 Earnings Season [View article]
    TD,
    About 18 months ago, I was hoping LDK might go out of business so that companies like TSL could swoop in and pick up the choices pieces. Then the realization that LDK could transform itself into a major powerhouse of end to end production (for 2011). Unfortunately, that did not happen.

    Even if LDK went out of business, the company will continue. After all, like STP, they employ over 20,000 people. If they failed, the losers would be the shareholders. The debt-holders might take an interesting haircut. It could come out of the bankruptcy very lean and ready to compete at ultra low prices. Unfortunately, we would not share in the future riches of this company.

    On the positive side, I have them at $1.70 EPS for 2012 but that estimate is totally dependent on them becoming a major force in module sales.

    DB PT of 7 - My views on JKS are pretty optimistic. Perhaps DB is taking the view that it is impossible for one company to decouple from the rest of the solar pack. If that is their argument, they have a very good point.
    Nov 15, 2011. 01:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Solar Winners And Losers For The Upcoming Q3 Earnings Season [View article]
    The LDK Confessions

    For the second quarter, LDK confession not only blew up the quarter but they also blew up the year.

    For today's confession they just added to a very miserable year. The net result is that they may post a Q3 loss of 78 cents rather than a loss of seven cents. Some of the metrics don't quite add up but the main idea is that the Q3 loss will be pretty big.

    The one good piece of news was that they more than doubled module shipments Q over Q. By the numbers, they seem to imply that module sales for Q4 will be fairly strong compared to drastically reduced Q3 sales. Of course, they have failed to execute so many times this year, we will have to approach module sales growth for Q4 with some caution.

    For an updated set of Q3 numbers, refer to:

    http://bit.ly/uK17IS


    BTW, moreofthesame: DB PT of 7 ???
    Nov 15, 2011. 01:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Solar Winners And Losers For The Upcoming Q3 Earnings Season [View article]
    The JKS Confession:

    Well, it finally happened. This morning, they confessed. One of the wheels fell off the JKS wagon. Perhaps more of a flat tire. Although they lowered module shipments for Q3, I was surprised at the implied ASP of $1.27. This is higher than my modeled $1.23 per watt.

    The net change to the bottom line is an EPS estimate of $1.07 (compared to my previous estimate of $1.07). This is still a double over the Street estimates.

    It was curious why they did not announce the revisions with the ER release date announcement.

    BTW, the Q4 implied module ASP seems a bit low but will wait for the Q3 CC for further details.
    Nov 14, 2011. 10:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2012 Solar EPS Forecasts Under 4 Pricing Scenarios - Part II [View article]
    Boomers, the DQ processing cost roadmap for poly is:
    2011
    Q3 - $28
    Q4- $31

    Q3 2012 - $25

    Q4 is larger than Q3 (if I remember correctly for electrical cost reasons during the end of the year).

    Much of their fortunes for 2012 will rest on poly pricing and module execution.
    Nov 10, 2011. 02:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2012 Solar EPS Forecasts Under 4 Pricing Scenarios - Part II [View article]
    fktw, if you look at the article below, it appears that the FSLR BOS is about 13 cents more than the c-si module BOS. This would indicate that as the ASPs narrow for 2012, there might be some interesting changes in thinking with respect to large scale projects.

    Someone with a better knowledge of FSLR would know the exact differences in BOS costing.

    http://bit.ly/rKV44b

    The other interesting observation if the two technologies are equal in pricing is the fact that the c-si technology is apparently more stable than the FSLR technology (indicating that the c-si modules might retain rated performance for a longer period of time). Perhaps you might have better knowledge on this point.
    Nov 10, 2011. 02:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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