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Articles posted here are the result of earnings analysis presented on www.heliosq.com. It is a website designed to promote a better understanding of Chinese solar companies listed on the U.S. exchanges. I have a Masters Degree in Finance so my articles will be very much numbers driven. My goal... More
My blog:
Helios Quarterlies
My book:
The Emerging Solar Bull Market for 2012
  • A Few Notes on the YGE Q2 ER

    A Few Notes on the YGE Q2 Numbers

    1. YGE was a surprise in the midst of our solar turmoil.  With an EPS of 36 cents, they managed to beat the Street (29 cents)  as well as my estimate (25 cents).

    2. They are producing pretty well at 100% capacity.  It appears they will be sold out to the end of the year.

    3. It was a bit irritating that they did not specify specific range metrics for ASPs and future shipments but instead chose to use words like high 20s or low teens (in terms of percentages).

    4. Their processing cost roadmap seems to have worsened over the next few quarters.  They now appear to be 73 cents for Q2 and going down to 70 cents entering 2012.

    5. Poly per watt will fall from 5.8 g/watt to 5.5 g/watt

    6. It appears that poly pricing will be around $50 for Q3 and $47 for Q4

    7. Panda will entail a 10% higher processing cost at this time and 15% premium.  By next year, they expect with economies of scale to reduce the processing cost to 5% higher than standard processing.  They are equipped to produce 300MW at this time.

    8. Poly Plant - For 2012, the plant will be either neutral or a drag on earnings.  They expect processing costs in the range of $45 (Q1 2012) to $35 (Q4).  They expect to reach $25 by YE 2013.

    9. As a separate cost center, we estimate that they could lose around $15 million in 2012 bringing the plant up to full efficiency. 

     

     

    Aug 21 2:01 PM | Link | Comment!
  • A Peek at 2012 for the Chinese Solars

    With 2011 now toast for solars (with the exception of JKS, DQ and YGE), I have spent the weekend refining my numbers for 2012.  Because of potentially declining earnings for 2012, DQ and YGE are not recommended at this time.

    I have used 1.15 1.10 1.10 1.10 for the module assumptions.   After the Q2 ER season is over, I will further polish the numbers and put them out for discussion.  Here are a few bigger picture numbers.

    1. Four companies could continue to see eps erosion.

    2. With the exception of three companies, the other eight should see stock price increases from 50% to 200%.  Although these big picture numbers look impressive, you have to keep in mind the huge share price losses of this year.  These potential returns will keep many of us in the game for another year.

    3.  If it happens that ASPs remain stable at 1.20, we could see an explosion of very strong earnings.

    4.  Because of this huge oversupply this year and the price war, we have basically lost about 18 months of anticipated earnings.

    Aug 21 1:59 PM | Link | Comment!
  • The Jaso Q2 ER

    The JASO ER for Q2 was not good.  We had estimated a loss of 15 cents, they reported a 22 cent loss.  That was ok.   It was the downward revisions to shipments.  In their defence, it appears that for them, Q2 will be the low point for this year.  As in the past, they refused to share any important information on metrics.  So we are left to estimate metrics often shared by other companies.

    For Q3 we now estimate an EPS of 12 cents.  For the full year we had to revise our EPS estimate of 80 cents down to 54 cents.

    So together with the LDK revisions in guidance, this has not been a very good day for solars.


    Aug 19 2:13 AM | Link | Comment!
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