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  • Netflix Crisis Abates, Future Is Promising [View article]
    Netflix's use of a letter to shareholders instead of a press release offers some interesting insights into the company. You bring up a fair number of good points.

    Content is no doubt expensive, but NFLX cash flow has been adequate to pay for it, and we feel that it will continue to be adequate. no debt or equity has been issued to pay for content. As dgulick said, revenues should be able to pay for content. Furthermore, the studios realize that there is only one player in the industry who can effectively monetize their content: Netflix. Ted Sarandos is an effective executive, and as Chief Content Officer he is responsible for acquiring content. The studios will not bankrupt Netflix, because Netflix has proven to them that it can monetize that content, and as such, studios have a huge incentive to see Netflix survive.

    Further, Netflx's streaming margins are currently at around 8%, and given its largely fixed costs, growth in subscribers will boost margins. More on that at the WSJ here:

    http://on.wsj.com/sHboyM

    International expansion will indeed cost NFLX money, and cash flows will most be negative for 2012. However, it should rebound by 2013. The street, including Credit Suisse, sees positive EPS for 2012. While we think that NFLX will indeed be profitable in 2012 overall, it will not be a large profit. 2012 will be a transition year for the company. Yet, the international division is succeeding. Subscribers grew by over 1,000% year-over-year in Q3 (from 0.13 million to 1.48 million) and grew over 52% over Q2.
    Oct 27, 2011. 07:21 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 6 Reasons To Buy GE For The Recovery [View article]
    the backlog is a gauge of future demand, and it can be an indicator of whether or not the company is growing. GE is processing the backlog as fast as it can.

    We agree that the dividend should be raised, but the GE of the past was inflated by GE Capital, which is what dragged the company down during the financial crisis. The GE of today is less reliant on GE Capital than before, and it will take longer to restore the dividend because of that.
    Oct 25, 2011. 11:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wells Fargo: Buy A Bank Truly Focused on Banking [View article]
    so far we have not heard anything, but yes, we shall provide an update if we hear anything
    Oct 25, 2011. 09:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • First Solar: A Contrarian Long-Term Play [View article]
    the ouster of Rob Gillette came as a total surprise to the street, but we think the stock reaction to this is overdone. excluding today, the stock is essentially unchanged from October 4. we want to hear more details about this and why Rob Gillette was ousted. the stock is plunging due to fears of the unknown. However, we think that the CEO resignation, at least at this time, presents nothing new. Rob Gillette, while a skilled manager, is no Steve Jobs or Jeff Bezos. in our mind, his skill-set, while extensive, is not irreplaceable.

    we think the issues surrounding FSLR are well documented, and this sell-off is a sign that the street is in a shoot first, ask questions later mode. nervousness over FSLR's near-term outlook has exacerbated this sell-off.
    Oct 25, 2011. 04:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 6 Reasons To Buy GE For The Recovery [View article]
    while GE stock is off of its all time highs by a fair amount, we are advocating the stock as a good opportunity going forward. timing is crucial in successful investing, and we believe that now is the proper time to invest in GE, given the reasons outlined above
    Oct 24, 2011. 08:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chipotle: Love The Food, Short The Stock [View article]
    CMG has broken out to $342 as of today
    Oct 24, 2011. 02:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Who's Right About Green Mountain Coffee Roasters? Einhorn Or The Street? [View article]
    a thoughtful analysis, we do think the timing of einhorn's comments are interesting, and look forward to the next conference call to hear what management has to say in regards to this
    Oct 20, 2011. 03:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Who's Right About Green Mountain Coffee Roasters? Einhorn Or The Street? [View article]
    this is why we are avoiding the stock altogether, preferring SBUX due to its superior clarity. however, for more risk-tolerant investors, GMCR could be a good oppurtunity
    Oct 20, 2011. 01:28 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Who's Right About Green Mountain Coffee Roasters? Einhorn Or The Street? [View article]
    the company definitely has a lot going for it, but the issues surrounding it are indeed of concern. the SEC probe, which has found nothing so far, could in fact uncover accounting issues at the company. we think that would be a huge red flag, as GMCR's valuation is too high to support a company with accounting issues
    Oct 19, 2011. 08:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Who's Right About Green Mountain Coffee Roasters? Einhorn Or The Street? [View article]
    we published this article to highlight the bullish and bearish theses for the stock, both of which have good arguments. up until einhorn's comments, the bulls have been correct. where GMCR will go from here is something only time will answer
    Oct 19, 2011. 04:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Deere To Play World Food Demand [View article]
    from a demographic standpoint, the world population will increase until a certain point, although there are a myriad of models forecasting different things. for more info, this wikipedia article can help

    http://bit.ly/oKFT1h
    Oct 17, 2011. 11:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • First Solar: A Contrarian Long-Term Play [View article]
    while china is indeed susidizing its solar manufacturers, the WTO has ruled against them, siding with the US and the EU on the matter.

    http://bit.ly/n3ypEQ

    FSLR will, by 2015, no longer need any sort of subsidy to compete, and its manufacturing process is currently the lowest-cost of any manufacturer, for it has no polysilicon. as noted above, even if it were free, chinese manufacturers would still not compete with FSLR on price.

    first solar has grown revenues from $1.2 billion in 2008, $2.1 billion in 2009, $2.6 billion in 2010, and is projected to post record revenue of $3.6 billion in 2011. FSLR is holding up well against issues in europe. Suntech is expected to grow revenues 11.3% from 2010 to 20111, while FSLR is expected to grow revenues 40.8% from 2010 to 2011 (according to Schwab) FSLR is growing sales faster than its largest chinese counterpart
    Oct 16, 2011. 05:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why We're Expecting Fedex's Shares To Move Above $80 [View article]
    first off, great article. would you say FDX is a better buy than UPS at current price levels?
    Oct 12, 2011. 05:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Morgan Stanley For Meaningful Upside When Eurozone Hysteria Subsides [View article]
    after a 33% jump, it could be in your interest to take some off the table. greed is a sin in investing, as jim cramer says. we do think even at $16 MS is undervalued, but it depends on your individual situation and if you think the money locked up in MS stock at the present could be put to better use somewhere else. we feel that a weak quarter is priced into the shares at this point, but until we see the results, no one can know for sure how the business has held up
    Oct 12, 2011. 03:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Deere To Play World Food Demand [View article]
    in the long-term, agricultural prices are rising due to ever-increasing demand as population growth and growth in emerging markets increases food demand. in the short-run, commodity prices could indeed be vulnerable, but in the long-term, they have one direction to go in.
    Oct 12, 2011. 02:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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