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  • Buy Jefferies As Debt Fears Abate [View article]
    leucadia's 10 year stock chart, with the exception of '08-'09 is rather impressive. the chart going back to 1978 is even more impressive
    Nov 9, 2011. 02:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Jefferies As Debt Fears Abate [View article]
    exactly. Leucadia has profited from this turmoil and ordinary investors should too. Jefferies is unique in the level of transparency that it has used to deal with rumors. How many firms can say they open up their trading books to the street to see exactly what is in them?
    Nov 8, 2011. 06:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  •'s Fuzzy Numbers Say 'Stay Away' [View article]
    investing according to fundamentals is not a science, but an art. The company is poised for great success, thus warranting a higher stock price, IF you look at it through the right prism. This is all a matter of perception, and for the moment, salesforce is perceived to be a company worthy of a $200 stock price. It is irrelevant whether or not that it is actually worth $200. As long as there is someone who thinks that CRM is worth $200, it will have price targets that high.
    Nov 8, 2011. 12:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vertex Conquers New Markets - It's Time To Buy [View article]
    VRTX is going through a transition phase that most, if not all biotechs go through, with the exception of the big 4. The stock soared as Incivek demonstrated its potential in clinical trials, yet investors have little tolerance for risk after it is approved. Everyone is afraid of being caught in the next Dendreon. This sell-off could be an oppurtunity, depending on your time horizon. Biotech is an extremely volatile sector, and VRTX shares could very well go lower, even though we do not think that reflects the true fundamentals of the company.
    Nov 8, 2011. 12:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Crisis Abates, Future Is Promising [View article]
    you nailed it. subscriber growth will resume soon, and with it the churn rate will slow down as well. it is true that the kind of deal that starz gave NFLX no longer exists. the landscape has changed, but so has the company. NFLX has greatly increased the resources it has to acquire new content
    Nov 7, 2011. 08:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Jefferies As Debt Fears Abate [View article]
    analysts were largely positive on those 2 firms until the end. notably, dick bove slapped lehman with a buy rating a few days before its bankruptcy. the key takeaway though, is that jefferies is not in the same league as lehman or bear. the company is run in a much more conservative fashion, and the factors that took down those 2 firms are not present at jefferies
    Nov 7, 2011. 08:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Jefferies As Debt Fears Abate [View article]
    thank you for the compliment. this is indeed a special situation, and special situations should be taken advantage of
    Nov 7, 2011. 03:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Crisis Abates, Future Is Promising [View article]
    NFLX is currently on a $3.3 billion revenue run rate, and that assumes revenues will never grow again, and no more subscribers will join, or leave. the company, at present, should have no issue paying for its streaming obligations with $3.3 billion in annual revenues. the obligations are broken down as follows (in millions):

    Less than one year: $740.8
    Due after one year and through 3 years: $2,136.9
    Due after 3 years and through 5 years: $535.7
    Due after 5 years: $45.5
    Total streaming content obligations: $3,458.9

    These are minimums, but we think the company's current revenue run rate is sufficient to cover expenses larger than these. But, given that we think subscribers will increase, there is an even larger cushion. Discounting the historical average of 1.47 million net subscriber adds per quarter (averaged over the last 9 quarters) down to 1 million, and decreasing ARPU down from $11.56 to $10 (accounting for a shift to streaming + international adds) would provide the company with, at a minimum $120 million in additional revenue for each of those million subscribers. These estimates may prove conservative, as the bad press surrounding the company dissipates, and customers see the value and convenience of NFLX. in addition, management has so far been pleased with international results, and we think that subscriber growth there will surprise to the upside.
    Nov 7, 2011. 01:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Crisis Abates, Future Is Promising [View article]
    it is possible that the opening was misconstrued. apologies for that. the accounts payable lists streaming costs due within one year.

    secondly, intangible assets are still assets, and their "value" is an issue when measuring book value per share. and the streaming content is constantly changing, so expiring content would be replaced with new content. NFLX is not a company that operates on tangible assets. that is the inherent nature of the business it is in.
    Nov 7, 2011. 01:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Crisis Abates, Future Is Promising [View article]
    NFLX accounts for its streaming payments every quarter under the cost of subscriptions, which for Q3 was $471.823 million. the data is in fact in the 10Q. The accounts payable lists license fees due but not paid, and although it is true that they are growing, the asset side of the balance sheet is growing as well. taken directly from the most recent 10Q.

    "For the titles recognized in content library, the license fees due but not paid are classified on the consolidated balance sheets as “Accounts payable” for the amounts due within one year and as “Other non-current liabilities” for the amounts due beyond one year. Changes in these liabilities are classified in the line item “Change in streaming content liabilities” within net cash provided by operating activities in the consolidated statement of cash flows. We record the streaming content library assets and their related liability on our consolidated balance sheet at the gross amount of the liability. Payments for the titles not yet available for streaming are not yet recognized in the content library but in prepaid content."
    Nov 7, 2011. 12:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Crisis Abates, Future Is Promising [View article]
    streaming costs will most likely not see declines, but revenues will rise. international growth looks promising at this point in time. while the streaming obligations are off the balance sheet, the expenses to pay for them ARE. and NFLX's EPS reflects the payment of those streaming costs. this quarter was a transition quarter, and by december, subscriber growth should return, and revenues will grow right alongside subscriber growth. as long as the company grows its subscriber count at a reasonable rate, revenues will be more than enough to cover streaming costs
    Nov 6, 2011. 10:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Crisis Abates, Future Is Promising [View article]
    the losses in 2012, while likely, come from expanding the service into new markets. as stated above, while the streaming costs are by no means small, the expenses that are on the balance sheet are there to pay for the company's streaming costs.
    Nov 6, 2011. 10:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Nike For Strength, Growth, And The Olympics [View article]
    good companies are able to trade at a premium, so long as they stay on a consistent path, such as COST and SBUX. both trade at a premium to the market and peers, but that premium is warranted given their profitability and operating profile
    Nov 6, 2011. 12:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Deckers As Growth And Profits Soar [View article]
    DECK is only a bit off its 52-week high, so we would like to see the stock pull back a bit more. what makes that call difficult is the degree to which the markets trade off of headlines. a positive headline out of Europe will send all stocks higher, while negative news sends all stocks lower.

    DECK has been able to post great numbers despite the slow economy, and the stock will go higher once people realize that this trend will continue. as for when that run will happen, it is entirely possible that it will run up into the holiday season, or its next quarterly report.
    Nov 6, 2011. 12:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  •'s Fuzzy Numbers Say 'Stay Away' [View article]
    that is precisely what we are not suggesting. CRMs earnings have been inflated buy accounting creativity. on its own, each of these issues appears addressable. but, putting it all together paints a troubling picture
    Nov 5, 2011. 03:18 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment