Henrique Simoes

This Rally Is Sustainable

I think to be long here is insane, but with tight stops even more so.

Markets are being pushed up by hope and when fear reappers, and we can already see some fear back in the market, your longs positions will obviously be stopped. Probably they have been stopped already by now.

Regards

Jim Rogers: U.S. About to Have a Currency Crisis

I hope you bought those contract a few weeks ago and that they are in the money. Because I think commodities and risky assets in general will trend down from here on.

Commodities are being pushed by sentiment and not by demand. That means when sentiment changes, and it has changed already, your positions will rush south.

Cheers. Take care.

Commodities Outlook for 2010, Goldman Sachs Edition

Interesting

GS thinks that Gold has the biggest profit potential?

I disagree. I think Ag commodities will do better

Not Buying This Rally

Not only not buying but selling short agressively.

John Paulson Piles into Gold; George Soros Sells Petrobras and Potash

I have been more bullish in Silver then Gold.

I think a long SLV / short GLD position would be a very good one. I am going to write a piece about that in the Oil Trader`s Blog.

The historical ratio between Gold and Silver is near an all time high.

Oil Seasonalities

I am a full time Oil Futures trader and I am shorting the market here.

Underlying conditions are not supportive of higher oil prices and the market is way overbought.

I have been posting my trades in real time in my blog,

oiltradersblog.blogspo...

Have a good trading day.

Jim Rogers: U.S. About to Have a Currency Crisis

Gold is Undecided, you are dead right.

Cheers


On May 13 10:26 AM RiskReturnOptimizer wrote:

> Agree with Henrique.
>
> Unfortunately, after Lehman collapse, there are two macro asset classes:
> risk and "risk free."
>
> Stocks, corp bonds, commodities, currencies (except Yen), ... are
> part of risk group and highly correlated.
>
> Risk free is treasuries, TIP, FDIC-backed bonds, Yen, and perhaps
> Muni (was in first category until last two months) and Agency paper.
>
>
> Undecided: gold.
>
> The only risk-managed way is to time your purchases and be aggressive
> in sector rotation looking at undervalued countries (e.g., EWT),
> sectors (e.g., XLV), and asset class arbitrage (e.g., long convertibles/preferred,
> short common stock as hedge).

Precious Metal Developers Provide Value and Upside in 2009

Marc Faber is very bullish on Gold and Silver for 2009:

"If you believe in a recovery of asset prices as a result of money printing, you should be in hard assets, particularly precious metals."

marcfaberblog.blogspot...

General Electric: Not Quite a Value Trap, More Like a Value Pit

I wouldn`t put a cent on GE stock. A bad surprise might arrive at any time.

Marc Faber's 2010 Investment Outlook

More Marc Faber`s material:

marcfaberblog.blogspot.../

Merry Christmas to all

Not Buying This Rally

I am short both the S&P and Oil Futures.

As I been posting in my blog, patience pays.

My Oil Outlook

I think the big problem is the Contango, Todd.

You have to pay for waiting.

Paul Krugman on the paradox of pay cuts: "If everyone takes a pay cut, nobody gains a competitive advantage. So there’s no benefit to the economy from lower wages. Meanwhile, the fall in wages can worsen the economy’s problems on other fronts."

I totally agree you. Paul Krugman is dead wrong or misquoted.


On May 04 11:09 AM Teutonic Knight wrote:

> I would respectfullty disagree with Prof. Krugman.
>
> If overall U.S. wages are lower, our goods and services would become
> more competitive worldwide, and our inflation index will be in check.
>
>
> Some say that the onslaught of rampant oursourcing overseas over
> the past two decades was because of our so-called "high standard
> of living" engendered by high wages and salaries.

Gold Price Continues Its Descent

Its in no man`s land.

I will not touch it either way.

Potash Comes Crashing Off Its High

Buy low and sell high

Probably its a good time to scale in